Probability

Probability can be defined as the chance of an

event occurring.
A probability experiment is a chance process that
leads to well-defined results called outcomes.
An outcome is the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment.
A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes
of a probability experiment. We denoted it by S.
An event consists of outcomes.
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 Sample Spaces

Experiment Outcome Sample Space

Toss a coin Head, Tail S={H, T}
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 S={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Answer a true/false True, False S={ T, F }
question
Toss two coins HH, HT, TH, TT S={HH, HT, TH, TT }

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 Example : Rolling Dice
Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

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 Example : Drawing Cards
Find the sample space for drawing one card from an
ordinary deck of cards.
Solution
Since there are 4 suits (hearts, clubs, diamonds, and
spades) and 13 cards for each suit (ace through king),
there are 52 outcomes in the sample space.
 Example : Drawing Cards

Ace Picture (12)

heart Red
diamond (26)

spade Black
club (26)
 Example : Gender of Children
Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a
family has three children. Use B for boy and G for girl.
Solution
S={BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG}

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 A TREE DIAGRAM.

A tree diagram is a device consisting of line segments

emanating from a starting point and also from the
outcome point. It is used to determine all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.
 Example : Gender of Children
Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the
gender of three children in a family.
B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G BGG
B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG
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 An Event
An event: consists of a set of outcomes of a probability
experiment and we denoted it by E.
simple event: consists of one outcome.
For example, if a die is rolled and a 6 shows.
Compound event: consists of more than one
outcome.
For example, if a die is rolled and getting an odd
number.
Equally likely events are events that have the same
probability of occurring.
 An Event
An Impossible event: If an event E cannot occur, then it
is called an impossible event.
Example: If a die is rolled and getting a number greater than
7.
Certain event: If the outcomes of an event E are equal to all
outcomes of the sample space then it is called a certain
event.
Example: If a die is rolled and getting a number less than 7.
Classical probability

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Example
If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability of
getting these results.
a. A sum of 6
b. Doubles
c. A sum of 7 or 11
d. A sum greater than 9
e. A sum less than or equal to 4
a. A sum of 6
2 Total of 36 outcomes
There are 6 or 36 outcomes.
There are 5 ways to get a sum of 6.
They are (1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), and (5,1).
5
p  Asum of 6  = .
36

b. Doubles

There are six ways to get doubles. They are (1,1), (2,2),
(3,3), (4,4), (5,5), and (6,6).
6 1
P  Doubles  = = .
36 6
 Total of 36 outcomes
c. A sum of 7 or 11
There are six ways to get a sum of 7. They are (1,6), (2,5),
(3,4), (4,3), (5,2), and (6,1).
There are two ways to get a sum of 11. They are (5,6) and
(6,5). 8 2
P  A sum of 7 or 11 = = .
36 9
d. A sum of greater than 9

To get a sum greater than nine, one must roll a 10, 11, or 12.
There are six ways to get a 10, 11, or 12. They are (4,6), (5,5),
(6,4), (6,5), (5,6), and (6,6).
6 1
P  A sum greater than 9  = = .
36 6
e. A sum less than or equal to 4
There are six ways to get a 4, 3 or 2. They are (1,3), (3,1),
(2,2), (2,1), (1,2), and (1,1).
6 1
P  A sum lessthanor equal 4  = = .
36 6
 Example : Gender of Children
If a family has three children, find the probability that
two of the three children are girls.

Sample Space:
BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

The event E={BGG, GBG, GGB}

P( E)= 3/8.

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 Example: Tossing a Coin
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability
of
1- getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.
2- getting a head and an odd number
3- getting a prime number
Solution:
S={H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}
1- E={H4} , P(E)= 1 12
2- E={H1, H3, H5}, P(E)  3 12  1 4
3- S={H2, H3, H5, T2, T3, T5}. P(E)  6 12  1 2
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Probability Rule 1
The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or
decimal) between and including 0 and 1.
This is denoted by 0  P(E)  1.
Probability Rule 2
If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no members
in the sample space), its probability is 0.

Probability Rule 3
If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.
Probability Rule 4
The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample
space is 1.
 Exercise : Rolling a Die
When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of
getting a number less than 7?

The event E={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }

The event of getting a number less than 7 is certain

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 The complement of an event

The complement of an event E ,

denoted by E , is the set of outcomes
in the sample space that are not
included in the outcomes of event E.

P
E 
=P
1 
E

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 Example : Finding Complements
Find the complement of each event.

Event ( E) Complement of the Event E

Rolling a die and getting a 4 Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6

Selecting a letter of the Getting a consonant
alphabet and getting a vowel
Selecting a month and getting Getting February, March,
month that begins with a J April, May August, September,
October, November, or December

Exercise: Find P(E) and P( E ) in each case

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 Example : Residence of People
If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized
1
country of the world is 5 , find the probability that a
person does not live in an industrialized country.

P Not living in industrialized country 

= 1  P  living in industrialized country 
1 4
 1 
5 5

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 Addition Rules for Probability
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events are mutually exclusive events if they
cannot occur at the same time (i.e., they have no
outcomes in common)
If A and B are two mutually exclusive, then
P(A and B)=0

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 Example 4-15: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting an even number: 2, 4, or 6

Mutually Exclusive

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 Example 4-15: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number

Getting a 3: 3
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Not Mutually Exclusive

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 Example 4-15: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
c. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less
than 4

Getting a number greater than 4: 5 or 6

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Mutually Exclusive

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 Example 4-15: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
d. Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Not Mutually Exclusive

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 4.2 Addition Rules for Probability
Addition Rules for two events
P  A or B   P  A   P  B  Mutually Exclusive
P  A or B   P  A   P  B   P  A and B  Not M. E.

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 4.2 Addition Rules for Probability

Addition Rules for three events

If A, Band C are mutually exclusive, then
P  A or B or C   P  A   P  B  +p(C).
If A, B and C are not mutually exclusive ,then
P  A or B or C   P  A   P  B   P C   P  A and B 
 P  A and C   P  B and C  +P  A and C and B  ,

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 Example : Medical Staff
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7
nurses and 3 physicians are females.
If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the
subject is a nurse or a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
P  Nurse or Male   P  Nurse   P  Male   P  Male and Nurse 
8 3 1 10
   
13 13 13 13
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 Exercise
• If one card is drawn from a deck, find the
probability of getting these results.
• a. A queen f. A 6 and a spade
• b. A club g. A black king
• c. A queen of clubs h. A red card and a 7
• d. A 3 or an 8 i. A diamond or a heart
• e. A 6 or a spade j. A black card
heart Red
diamond (26)
spade
Black
club (26)