MADE IN USA 美国制造 2016 Publication version 1.0 - includes 11 futures modeling tools 出版物!版本1.

0 －包括了11种建模未来的工具。

1
未来推演工厂

ELLIOTT P. MONTGOMERY AND CHRIS WOEBKEN

操作者的执行手册
OPERATOR’S MANUAL
EXTRAPOLATION FACTORY
 未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

We aim to challenge the

notion that professional
futurists are the only ones
who can—or should—be
thinking about long-term,
large-scale futures.

的
的
的未来
者 的
的未来

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Operator’s Manual 6 Frameworks, Tools and methods 35

操作者的执行手册 6 框架，工具和方法 35

Why Conduct Futures Studies? Instance Database

未来
What Do We Mean by “Democratized Futures Studies” Example Instances

的 未来
How the Extrapolation Factory Came To Be Futures Cone

未来推演工厂 的 未来
Lenses

The past as Reference for the Future 25

过去作为未来的参照 25 Futurescope

未来的
A History of Future Studies Four Arcs

未来 的
Futures and Design Futures Wheel

未来 未来
Military Futures and the Rand Corporation The Thing From the Future

未来 来 未来的
Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies To Be Designed Kit

未来 工
Contemporary Futurists Polarity Maps & Scenarios

的未来
Speculative Designers Bisociation

Critics & Allies Alternative Unknowns Method

的未

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Storymaking 55 Reflection 90
故事编写 55 反思 90

Role of Hypotheticals Interviews With Collaborators and Participants:

的 作者 者
Future Hints Geoff Manaugh/ Nicola Twilley

未来的 Andrew Hessel

Commingling the Past With The Future Roy Campbell

未来 David Benque

Moment of Evaluation Student participant from PS 147 (with Molly O’Brien)

Jim Dator

Fabrication 63
制造 63

Why “Tangibilize” Fragments of the Future

未来
Six Guidelines for Sourcing Workshop Materials

工作 的
What Artifacts Say About a Future

未来的

Contextualization 75
场景化 75

Suspension of Disbelief

Putting Hypotheticals Back Into Existing Contexts

的
Leveraging Consumer Behaviors for Reconsideration

者行 来

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OPERATOR’S MANUAL
的操作手册

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的 The human capacity to perform mental time travel distinguishes us

来 from almost all other beings; we’re able to recollect specific past
events, as well as to imagine possible futures. We strive to understand
的未来 的未 our experiences and ourselves within unpredictable possibilities; to
来的 anticipate shimmering new horizons and galvanize ourselves against
的 catastrophic outcomes. Some of our futures are tangible, low-stakes,
的 的 accessible: What am I going to eat for dinner tonight? Should I bring
未来 的 an umbrella with me in case it rains? Where am I going on my next
的未来 的 vacation? The common approach to these personal futures is usually
的 quite straightforward and unconsidered: a thought process so
familiar as to render itself nearly invisible.
行
的

COMMONPLACE
未来的 FUTURES

Commonplace Futures Diagram

“平常的未来”图表
N
IO
AT
C

T
VA

OO

EN
ER

TH
ER

EM
ER
W NER
TH

EN
MM

TIR
RE
EA

R
N

SU

CA

RE
PA
DI

NOW FUTURE

的未来 Other futures, however, bear global implications. What will happen
when the natural resources we rely on become depleted? What
EXTRAPOLATION FACTORY
的
的 do future economies look like? How might changes in healthcare
未来的 impact the evolution of disease prevention? Futures studies experts
的 in industries such as energy, defense, finance, insurance, and
politics task themselves with conceptualizing these futures using
的未来 sophisticated tools and models, applied with varying ends in mind.
的工 来 Some attempt to forecast future situations; others are used to
的未来 未来 troubleshoot multiple scenarios; and others still are employed to help
未来 expand the imagined range of possible futures. Though the methods
的 themselves have proven to be productive, they’re rarely introduced
未来 未来 的 beyond insular circles within industry and academia.

的 行
的

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未来推演工厂的 The Extrapolation Factory formed with an interest in democratizing

推 未来 的 and contextualizing futures studies. We aim to challenge the notion
未来 未来 that professional futurists are the only ones who can—or should—
的 be thinking about long-term, large-scale futures. We believe
的未来 the practice of actively envisioning and modeling our collective
的 futures is applicable to everyone, and that the emerging array of
的 未来 的 futures-visioning tools should be made available as such. As its
来 的未来 name suggests, the Extrapolation Factory streamlines foresight
工 的 tasks, allowing groups of participants to experiment with expert
未来推演工厂 techniques appropriated from futurists. Through our Extrapolation
的 的未来 Factory events, participants transform their abstract future visions
未来推演工厂 的 into concrete artifacts that function as tangible representations of
者 未来 these ideas. This emphasis on the creation of a physical product
来的 distinguishes our practice by situating future scenarios within the
未来的 的 familiar language of the objects that surround us in our everyday
的 来作 的 lives.
来
的 We consider the Extrapolation Factory to be an experimental
的未来 的 synthesis between our prior endeavors in futures studies. While
来 working in a shared studio space in Brooklyn in 2012, we began to
的 develop a process that borrows both from our interest in exploring
new ways of deploying future-oriented concepts in contexts
未来推演工厂 作 beyond galleries, and our interest in designing methodologies for
未来 的 的 speculative workshops.
2012 工作
工作 未来 Our first project, 99¢ Futures, was inspired by the eclectic
的 的 atmosphere of present-day downtown Brooklyn, a neighborhood
未来 的工作 的 whose storefronts play host to an eccentric array of vendors
未来推演的 including psychics; custom fragrance shops; purveyors of “100%
virgin human hair” and gold dental caps; and, of course, quite a few
的 99 的未 99¢ stores. The commerce of the neighborhood speaks to a broad
来 的 来 and fascinating cross-section of social desires and values, some so
的 strange that they already feel as if they come from the future.
的
的 者
100% 的
的 99
的
的
来 未来的

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Photos from Fulton Street Mall and Flatbush Avenue in Brooklyn, NY

纽约布鲁克林富尔顿街购物中心和弗拉特布什大道的照片

Typical advertisement and products found in downtown

Brooklyn's eclectic Fulton Street Mall. In this vibrant
neighborhood exist plenty of 99¢ stores as well as
pseudoscience street proselytizer carts, custom fragrance
shops, psychic readings, gold dental caps, "100% virgin
human hair" and shrinkwrapped sneakers. Many of the
shops and services in the neighborhood almost feel like
they're from the future.
的 的
的 99
的推 100%的
的 的 来
未来的

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来 未来的 99 The concept of the 99¢ store of the future arose as a logical
来 的 extension of this unexpected, often incongruous, juxtaposition
的 的 的 of products. In present-day 99¢ stores, one can find items as
的 99 contemporary as the latest iPhone case sitting next to a dated VHS
的iPhone 手 labeling kit, down the aisle from a timeless box of toothpicks. We
的 started referring to this type of environment as a time slice in which
的 an assortment of objects blurs chronology to surreal effect. In this
的 setting, it could feel plausible for the time slice to creep forward
的 - by placing one fictional artifact on a crowded peg-board next
的 to an absurd present-day item like a picture-frame-air-freshener
的 and setting another potential future product on a shelf amidst
推 的 inexpensive sleep-aid goggles. The idea of a glimpse is important
未来 的 here—many products found in a 99¢ store are in fact narrative
的 hints: items that allude to the existence of a larger system. For
instance, one would likely not come across a vacuum cleaner in
未来 的 their local 99¢ haunt, but vacuum bags and attachments are readily
的 available. We encouraged participants in the 99¢ Futures workshop
99 的 的 to create narrative hints, allowing them to suggest an ecosystem
without rendering it in detail, leaving the shopper’s imagination to
的 的 complete the picture.
的 99
的
99 的未来 工作
者 99
的 作
的 Time Slice
“时光片段”

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99 的未来 The 99¢ Futures project established what have become definitive
未来推演工厂 未来 的 elements of the Extrapolation Factory process. First and foremost
的 of these distinguishing features is a structure in which participants
者 are guided through a process of storymaking and artifact creation—
未来 的 interpreting and translating current research into future stories
的 的 者 and designing products based on those stories. The second key
的 来 未 feature prototyped in this first experiment was the instance of
来 的 contextualization, the 99¢ store in this case, where the future products
的 的 are displayed in a present-day, real world setting.
的 99
者 的
的

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未来推演工厂工作 的 The Extrapolation Factory’s model for the workshop’s assembly line
未来的 was dubbed the Future Scope, a four-part thought tool for aiding in
the development of imagined future scenarios. The Future Scope is
未来 的工 未来的 an assemblage of several precedent thought tools and strategies:
的 工 horizon scanning, Voros’ Futures Cone, and the STEEP analysis. First,
Voros 的未来 participants who gathered at Columbia University’s Studio-X NYC
selected forecasts from a database of research and predictions by
的 工作 工作 的 expert futurists from companies, scientific and academic research
者 未来 bodies, and futures studies organizations. Our database was
的 未来 populated with a breadth of viewpoints, some contradicting others,
的 with no particular view on the future endorsed by the Extrapolation
的未来 来 Factory. This array was intended to give participants an opportunity
的 未来 to subjectively interpret expert forecasts, leading to interesting
的 的 outcomes that might not emerge from purely expert perspectives.
者 未来
的 的
未来
推演工厂 的
的 者
未来的
的 推
的

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Participants imagined a product that one could find in

their future’s 99¢ store, and fabricated that product by
dismembering and reassembling products purchased
from contemporary 99¢ stores.
的未来 者 未来
的99 的 的99
的 来的未来

Each forecast was then analyzed against five lenses (social,

technological, ecological, economic and political) in order to lend
者 的 nuance to the participants’ imagined futures. Finally, participants
未来 imagined a product that one could find in their future’s 99¢ store,
的未来 者 and fabricated that product by dismembering and reassembling
未来 的 99 products purchased from contemporary 99¢ stores.
的
的 99
的 来的未
来

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未来推 This thought process yielded a high volume of

的 的 widely varied product ideas. Some products, like
未来 的 the triple-nipple baby bottle, reference common
的 的 daily tasks of the future, created for the successful
的 career-woman who gives birth to an entire family
未来的 at once immediately following retirement, thanks
的 to advanced fertility technologies. Other products
来 的未来 conjured less likely scenarios, like a 99¢ filter
99 的 replacement for the Nukey® portable nuclear
的 的 来 fusion machine, inspired by a 2011 forecast by
2011 的 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
2050 predicting that renewables could provide as
的 未来 much as 80% of our energy by 2050. Still others
的 的 imagined wildly improbable futures, like the Trip-
未来 DIY O-Critter DIY life-form synthesis kit, which would
工 Trip-O-Critter allow the consumer to synthetically produce a
者 的 custom organism to provide entertainment while
的 的 taking newly-legalized psychedelic drugs.

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A 99¢ store employee price

tagging the products and
“Trip-O-Critter: Create Your Own distributing them throughout
Lifeform” on display, surrounded the store
by other toys 99 的
Trip-O-Critter: 的 的
的

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Siri Pharmacy and 99¢ storefront

Siri的药店和99美分商店店面

At the 99¢ Futures store

opening, we transformed the
storefront with additional
banners promoting implants,
reputation index services, etc.
We created a glowing Cash
for DNA sign to hang with the
other neons, and in the rest of
the window, we applied a huge
holographic futures cone decal
reading Time-Warp Opening.
99 的未来 的
的 来

的 DNA
的
的
未来
的

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未来推演工作 的 While the ideas and explorations fostered during

未来 的 the workshops are certainly impressive, we
未来 的 99 found that participants’ experiences of the future
的 的 products contextualized in a real world setting
are equally powerful. We approached a local,
的 99 family-run 99¢ store and pharmacy with the idea
的未来 未来推演工 of hosting a temporary concept store in which
作 的未来 the speculative products would be displayed and
的 sold alongside the store’s present-day inventory.
的 Over the course of five months leading up to
99 的 the store’s Time Warp Opening, we worked with
的 the owners to strategize for the event. It was
的 未来 99 important to accentuate the blending of present
的未来 的 and future inherent to the premise of 99¢ Futures.
未来 The storefront was augmented with banners
的 promoting future services such as implants and
的 reputation index calculators. A sign flickering the
的 enticing proposition Cash for DNA joined existing
DNA 未来推演工厂 neon signs in the front window. The Extrapolation
的 者 Factory donned pharmacy coats for the opening
工作 的 and acted as employees, sweeping floors and
未来 helping point curious customers towards some
的 of the future products nestled amongst the
的 未来 standard inventory.

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的未来 As shoppers came across the future items, they

began to point them out to others, examining the
的 来 products and engaging in impromptu discussions
的 of critique, elaboration, and continuing
的未来 imagination. The futures were, of course, for
的 sale, and we sold almost every one—at $1.08
的未来 的 each after tax, no returns. As the store’s cashier
者 rang up the purchases, we asked customers why
的未来 they decided to “invest” in one future or another.
的 The answers were varied. Some were guided in
来的 their purchases by humor or thrill—the absurdity
of taking home a replacement component for
的 的 a chinchilla-grooming robot that doesn’t exist
者 的未 (yet). Others had formed a personal attachment
来 的 to an idea. A customer buying a Home Transplant
工 Kit—organ not included—explained, “This is for
的 my son—he’s a doctor.” We found this interaction
的 fascinating, as it presented an opportunity for
的 a participant’s idea to be considered - and
者 possibly brought to life - by a subject expert.
的

As the store’s cashier rang up the

purchases, we asked customers
why they decided to “invest” in one
future or another.

的
者
的未来

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99 的未来 的 Following the success of 99¢ Futures, we

的 手 have continued iterating on our methods and
工作 approaches, combining additional viewpoints,
的 的 工 未来 tools, and contexts in dozens of subsequent
推演工厂的 未来 的 workshops and exhibitions. The Extrapolation
演 的 Factory process, like the act of futuring itself, is
未来 one of constant evolution. We believe that co-
的 creating and contextualizing future ideas as
未来 的 的 artifacts in current contexts is a powerful way to
作 make accessible emotional connections to our
未来的 potential futures, and to develop new ways of
comprehending these futures. By communicating
的 through products, futures become real and
的未来推演 relatable, embodied provocations about our
者 beliefs in technology and society. Just as we
的未来推演 have designed the Extrapolation Factory
的 操作手册 process to guide participants through stages
未来推演工厂的 of conceptualization, iteration, realization, and
的 contextualization, we have designed this book
to serve as a manual of sorts for those who are
interested in engaging with our approaches to
futures studies.

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THE PAST AS REFERENCE FOR THE FUTURE

未来

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未来 的 The field of futures studies is inherently an ambiguous

的 的 and evolving landscape. Within this malleable space of
未来 thought and study, there is no agreed upon definition of
的 者 行 what a futurist is, or how work in this field is done. This
工作的 的 lack of definition has invited quite a few skeptics—along
未来 with terms like “futurology” that often carry hocus-pocus
的 connotations—but has not precluded futures studies from
未来 earning a bona fide place in academia, with doctorate
的 programs offering PhDs in foresight. We have been
的未来 inspired by futures practices from the ‘out there’ to the
的 的 institutionally codified. The precedents and inspiration
的 for our practice—some of which we will touch on in the
的 ensuing pages—are, in a sense, cherry-picked from this
未来 的的 rich spectrum of perspectives on futures studies, with an
的 未 eye towards points of view that might hold resonance
来 的 with broader audiences beyond the futures community
itself.

未来推演工厂 的未来 Integral to situating the Extrapolation Factory within

的 的 未来 the larger canon of futures studies is an examination
的 的 of the relationship between futures studies and design.
未来 Our work exists at the nexus of these two disciplines,
的 未来 未来 in the realm of speculative design and design futures.
作 Design futures, like futures studies as a whole, is still
的 being defined and might never reach a state of singular
的 的 definition. Rather, it can be thought of as a diverse range
的 of design practices governed by the belief that design
的 的 methods have a distinct and important role to play
执 未来 in shaping conversations about the future. Some, like
的 的作 Cameron Tonkinwise, the Director of Design Studies in
Cameron Tonkinwise the School of Design at Carnegie Mellon University, argue
that all design is inherently focused on the future; others
的 未 argue that conventional design approaches don’t put
来 的 enough emphasis on future possibilities and alternatives,
的未来 thereby necessitating a discrete role for the discipline of
的 speculative design.
的

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Our work exists at the nexus of

these two disciplines, in the realm of
speculative design and design futures

的
未来 的

An early precedent for modern futures research can be seen in the

work of Herman Kahn and the RAND Corporation. In the mid-20th-
century, the RAND Corporation applied engineering approaches
to the consideration of multiple futures at a large-scale context,
considering disastrous outcomes such as nuclear war in an attempt
to make recommendations to various government and military
entities that might improve survivability of such an event. This focus
on worst-case-scenarios and institutional, rather than individual,
solutions for these disasters, is emblematic of Cold War attitudes, and
while contemporary approaches to futures research take a decidedly
less institutional, top-down approach, we consider the work of Kahn
and the RAND Corporation an antecedent to our work in that it
exemplifies a group of people taking a thoughtful and methodical
approach to thinking about the future, to work through weighty
issues of global political and economic import.

未来 的 Herman Kahn 的工作

工 的 来 的未来
的
的 的
未来 的 Kahn
的工作 作 工作的 的
来 未来的 的

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In the ensuing decades, a contrasting approach to futures studies

emerged, driven by research into the role of the future in social and
cultural thought. This approach was largely structured by Jim Dator, who
founded the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies at the University
of Hawaii at Manoa in 1971. We were inspired by Dator’s codification of
the four most popularly identified Western narrative arcs regarding the
future: continued growth, systemic collapse, conservation (or discipline);
and transformation. These four arcs speak to the significant role collective
cultural prediction of alternative future possibilities has in determining the
likelihood of certain futures manifesting in reality. In other words, futures
are stories we tell ourselves, and the act of crafting future narratives often
recursively flows into the continuous creation of our lived present. Not only
has Dator’s emphasis on futures as stories or collective narratives rather
than specific incidents been influential to the Extrapolation Factory’s focus
on contextualizing and storymaking futures; Dator’s Hawaii Research
Center has also educated and incubated the work of many other futurists
we consider key precedents for our practice.

的 未来 的 未来
的 1971 未来
的 Jim Dator 来 Dator 的 的未来

的未来 的 未来
的 未来 的行 的 的
Dator 未来 的 来 的 未来
推演工厂 未来 Dator 的
的 作 的未来

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One of our first personal introductions to the field of foresight was through
Stuart Candy, a student of Jim Dator’s whose work mixes an academically
rigorous background with a decidedly experimental approach. Candy’s
tempering of academic futures research with playful, interactive
experiences underscored to us the degree to which there is room for
contributions to the field. Early on, Stuart encouraged us to embark upon
the series of experiments that have become the Extrapolation Factory.
Especially influential to our practice are two of Candy’s projects: the “Hang
Ten flu” memorial plaque, and Hawaii 2050. Both projects signify a focus
on imagining the future in place—in this case, Hawaii—as well as Candy’s
interest in putting his work out into the world to be experienced by diverse
audiences; this dialogical approach to futures research and attention to
context are likewise foundational to the Extrapolation Factory.

未来 Jim Dator的 Stuart Candy 的

工作 的 的 Candy 的未来
的 的 的
Stuart 的 演 的未来推演工厂
的 Stuart的
的未来
Stuart 的工作 来
的未来 的 未来推演工厂 的

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The “Hang Ten flu” memorial plaque is an example of

未来 的 a contextualized future artifact, a plaque honoring
的 victims of an imagined future pandemic—the equal parts
者的 humorous and ominous “Hang Ten flu”—affixed to a public
bench, where public reactions to this future scenario
的未来 的 could be organically observed. Hawaii 2050, produced
in collaboration with Jim Dator and Jake Dunagan, was
2050 Jim Dator an event held at a hotel in Honolulu in 2006, inspired by
Jake Dunagan 的 作 的 Candy’s PhD work on experiential futures. Four potential
Candy 未来 future scenarios for sustainability in Hawaii were laid out
的 的 in a series of immersive experiences; none of the future
行 cases were presented as “best-case” or “worst-case”
的 未来 scenarios, leaving participants to form their own value
的 未来 judgments. Participants were invited to engage with
的未来 these scenarios and, in doing so, examine their existing
者 的 assumptions about the future and clarify their thinking
者 来 about the future Hawaii’s environment should, and could,
actually arrive in. A key aspect of Hawaii 2050 in relation
的 未来的 to our own work is the emphasis on “living the future”
的 的未来的 in immersive, participatory contexts that allow for more
的 来 gut-level interpretation.
的
未来 的 者 Any conversation about design futures would be
的 未来 incomplete without considering the work of Dunne &
的 Raby, whose work typifies a non-solutions-oriented,
critical, and provocative approach to speculative design.
Dunne & Raby的作 Tony Dunne and Fiona Raby taught us both during our
未来的 time in the Design Interactions program at the Royal
的 的作 College of Art in London and introduced us to speculative
的 approaches driven by design form languages. We were
的 inspired to discover applications for speculative design
的 that borrowed from their vision and then incorporated
Tony Dunne Fiona Raby distinctive approaches of our own. For us, that distinctive
approach is largely embodied by the Extrapolation
的 的 Factory’s commitment to a participatory workshop
的 的 process and collaborative endeavors with partners both
的 来 within and outside the design futures community itself.
的 来
的
未来推演工厂
工作 的 未来
的 作 的 作

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Because we are a collaboration-driven practice, we 作 的

also found inspiration for the Extrapolation Factory 的
in the work of our contemporaries, such as Natalie Natalie Jeremijenko
Jeremijenko’s Feral Robotic Dogs project, The Near 的 未来
Future Laboratory’s To Be Designed workshop, and Geoff 的 工作 Geoff
Manaugh and Nicola Twilley’s programming at Studio-X Manaugh Nicola Twilley 的
NYC, which played host to the very first Extrapolation 工作 的
Factory workshop. Jeremijenko’s Feral Robotic Dogs 未来推演工厂的工作
project from 2006 leveraged relatively inexpensive and Jeremijenko 的
widely available hardware in toy robotic dogs, pushing 的
it beyond the intended entertainment purpose to instead 的
hack “activist’s instruments” capable of exploring, 的
tracking, and contesting local environmental conditions 工
in targeted communities. The project is notable for 来的 的
combining an educational component—teaching
electronics and basic hacking skills—with speculative 的
design to contribute to a solutions-oriented dialog within
a community. This dovetails with our belief that engaging 的
communities in speculative design and futures thinking 的
can provide real benefits in the present through opening 未来
new pathways of problem-solving and discussion. 的

engaging communities in speculative design

and futures thinking can provide real benefits
in the present through opening new pathways
of problem-solving and discussion.

未来

的
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未来 的 工作 The Near Future Laboratory’s To Be Designed workshop

来 未来 brought together participants from the design fiction
的 者 来 未来 and design futures communities to pool their ideas
的 and collaboratively design a catalog of future product
Julian Bleecker concepts. The resulting catalog is capacious, capturing
的 未 的 未 snapshots of a near future Julian Bleecker describes as
来的 “neither boom nor bust,” linking emerging technologies
的 with inevitable bugs and glitches that characterize
工作 modern life. The To Be Designed workshop proposed
未来 的 an innovative format for collaboratively generating
speculative ideas in impressive quantity, and seeing the
的 的 project come to life strengthened our desire to conduct
工作 的 design futures workshops with broader audiences,
beyond our own community of practice.
工作 2008
Studio-X NYC, an experimental urban futures laboratory
2014 的 that was founded at Columbia’s Graduate School of
未来 未来推演工厂 Architecture, Planning and Preservation in 2008 and ran
的 programs through 2014, has been integral to the story
的 of the Extrapolation Factory since its inception, not least
的 工作 99 的 because the space hosted our very first workshop, 99¢
未来 作 Futures. As a forum for mind-expanding conversations
的 and lectures about urban design, architecture, and a
工作 range of somewhat related topics, Studio-X NYC was
的 unparalleled in its capacity to tap interesting people
的 and topics, leading to richly relevant dialogues imbued
的 with a vital element of surprise. It was this boundary-
工作 pushing atmosphere that made Studio-X NYC a natural
工作 的 fit for our first workshop, and we aspire to foster similarly
未来推演工厂的 stimulating scenarios for conversation and innovation
来 through each of the Extrapolation Factory’s endeavors.

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 未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

One of our own events that embodies this investment in 未来 的

leveraging the intellectual and creative resources of our 的
peers to expand our toolbox of futures methods was a 来 未来推演的
gathering we called the New Future Picnic. We invited 来 未来
colleagues from across the design futures community— 的 Fiona Raby
including Fiona Raby and Studio-X NYC’s Nicola 工作 的Nicola Twilley
Twilley—for a lunch to exchange ideas and strategies 未来 工作的
for futures work. In a characteristic injection of whimsy
and participation, we provided a flatbread as a canvas 的 作
and diagrammatic elements (carrots, roasted eggplant,
sliced beets, etc.) and asked our guests to iterate on 的
a new possible rendition of a futuring practice they 未来 的
employ in their work. While the setting was casual and
playful, what emerged were a series of viable ideas 未来
that would be integrated into our future projects. In the 的 行 来的
years following, we’ve continued our effort to reach
out to experts—both in our own design community and 的
other disciplines, such as the New York City Emergency
Management department and the National Center for
Atmospheric Research—to learn about their strategies 未来 的
for thinking about possible future scenarios.

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 未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

FRAMEWORKS, TOOLS AND METHODS

工

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INSTANCE DATABASE

Most Extrapolation Factory workshops begin with participants 未来推演工厂工作 的

choosing a few scenarios from an instance database of references 者
to evolving research, emerging situations, and possible futures. 未来
These scenarios are used as the basis for the imagining of a future 的未来
need and the creation of a speculative product to fulfill that need. 的 的未来
We curate these databases with the conceit of individual workshops 未来 作
in mind. Some are holistic, pulling academic and news articles from 来 者 未来
multiple fields, and others have a niche disciplinary focus. Regardless 的
of their level of specificity, these instance databases are meant to 的
serve as provocations rather than boundaries, and include pieces of 的工作 来 的
information that are at times contradictory.
的 来 的

的 的
的 作

EXAMPLE INSTANCES REFERENCING BIOTECHNOLOGY

的

Lit Up Plants
Imagine a world where glowing trees replace street lights and
house plants help light up a room. A group of scientists is working to
make plants do just that.
让植物发光
未来的 的 的 的 作
的
Glowing Plant Project, San Francisco

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 未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

Thinking With Your Gut

The unique mix of microbes in your gut might change your brain.
In one study, brave mice became more anxious after being given
microbes from nervous mice.
用你的肠道来思考
的 的 作 的
的 的 手 来
Stephen Collins, McMaster University, Canada
Stephen Collins

Mars Colonization Kit

When we go to Mars, we won’t go alone. Astronauts will bring specially
designed microbes to help make things like food, shelter and fuel.
火星殖民化套件
的

André Burnier and Brown University research students

André Burnier 的

Barcodes for Nature

DNA barcoding lets us identify living things from small samples. It
can be used to do things like double-check that the fish you buy is
really what the label says.
自然的条码
DNA 来 的 来
的 的 的
David Schindel, Smithsonian Institution
David Schindel
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Smells Like Roses

Flower smells are popular in perfumes. One company has
engineered yeast to manufacture the scent of a rose in labs. Soon
there may be a whole line of cultured scents.
闻起来像玫瑰一样
的 行 工
的 的 来
Ginkgo Bioworks, Boston
Ginkgo Bioworks

Less-Thirsty Plants
Drought is a big problem for both plants and the farmers that grow
our food supply. Now some plants can be engineered to survive
even when there is little water.
耐渴植物
的 来 工
的
Sean Cutler, UC Riverside
Sean Cutler

Glowing Pee Test

Scientists have engineered bacteria that can sense liver cancer.
Patients could take a pill of the bacteria and glowing pee would
signal a positive test result.
发光的尿液测试
工 来 者
的
Tal Danino and Engineers at MIT and UC San Diego
工 的 的工

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 未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

Body-Clock Transplant
Most living things have an individualized body clock called a
circadian rhythm. Scientists have figured out how to move this clock
from one bacteria to another to alter behavior.
生物钟移植
的
行 的
Pamela Silver, Harvard University
Pamela Silver

Pig Organs for Humans

Many people die each year waiting for a new organ, such as a
heart. Scientists are editing pig genes to make pig organs safer for
transplanting into human bodies.
供人类使用的猪器官
者 的 的
的 的 的
George Church, Wyss Institute, Cambridge
George Church

Driving Malaria Out

Mosquitoes can carry deadly disease, but scientists engineered some
that can’t get malaria. They even built in a clever way to spread the
genes to all mosquitoes. This could save many lives.
赶走疟疾
的 工 的
的 来 的
的
Researchers at UC Irvine and UC San Diego
的
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FUTURES CONE
未来

未来 The Futures Cone is a diagram meant to aid in

来 未来的 classifying how one may think about the future
的未来 from a specific perspective. The cone is made up of
的 four different classes of potential futures, each one
的 represented as a wider or narrower cone depending
未来 的 on its likelihood and specificity. All of the nested cones
的 emanate from the finite point in the present, growing
的 broader as time moves further forward and our ability
的推 的 to project future events becomes less certain.
未来的 来
The widest cone is that of possible futures—all the
futures we can possibly imagine, no matter how
的 的未 implausible. Possible futures include futures that
来 的未来 transcend current knowledge or transgress widely
的 的 accepted physical laws. Within this cone is the cone of
未来 的未来 plausible futures, which are futures that could logically
的 者 的 happen, given our current understanding of the laws
的未 and systems of our universe. Nested again at the center
来 未来 的 of the cone of plausible futures is the smallest and
的 most precise cone—that of probable futures. Probable
的未来 futures are considered likely to happen based on our
的 的 understanding of current trends, and can be thought of
的未来 as a linear extension of the present. All three of these
的 的未来 categories are defined by informational or cognitive
的 knowledge, whereas the fourth—preferable futures—is
的 concerned with what one subjectively wants to happen.
的 来 The cone of preferable futures may overlap any of
的 the three other cones because it is based on value
未来 judgments, which can vary greatly between people.
来 的未来
的
的

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 未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

Joseph Voros Cone:

Joseph Voros 锥：

possible

plausible

probable

preferable

PERSPECTIVES CONTEXT FUTURE SCENARIOS

(TREND)

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LENSES

A series of external macro-environmental factors that could affect a

potential future outcome. In marketing, lenses are often used to gain 的未来
insight into a situation. One commonly used lens model in marketing 的
is often referred to as a PEST or STEEP analysis—grouping factors 来 的
into social, technological, economic, environmental, and political 的
categories. In our practice, lenses are used as metrics through which PEST STEEP
we can consider the impact of a hypothetical future scenario.
来 的
的 作
来 的未来
的

FUTURE SCOPE
未来

的未来 An amalgamation of established future visioning techniques,

未来 未来推演工 the Future Scope is a four-part methodology conceived of by the
厂 的 Extrapolation Factory to guide our practice. First, participants
的 select future scenarios from a curated instance database. They are
者 的 then asked to map these scenarios against both a futures cone (to
未来 者 determine the relative probability or improbability of that future)
来的未来 未来 and a series of lenses, to determine its technological, ecological,
的 未来 social, political, and economic impact. The third step, which we refer
的 的 to as storymaking, tasks participants with imagining a future need
来 borne of the hypothetical instances they selected, and designing a
的 product to fill that need. In the fourth and final step, the product is
的 者 brought back from the hypothetical to the real through the creation
来的未来 of a physical prototype out of found and hacked materials.
的未来
来 的
者 的
的 来 的
来 的
的

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 未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

Extrapolation Factory Process Diagram:

未来推演工厂流程图：

CONTEXTUALIZATION

∞ ∞ ∞
Impossible ses
Len

Possible
Focal
Points VISION
Plausible

Probable

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FOUR ARCS

The four future arcs—Grow, Collapse, Discipline, and Transform—are 未来

broad trajectories meant to serve as models describing different 来
kinds of possible futures. Think of these as genres rather than 的 未来的
specific scenarios: innumerable narratives could be imagined as 的
playing out under each of these types. The Grow model imagines 的
a future in which everything is on an upward trajectory, including 的
production, consumption, and population growth. Collapse signals 未来 的
the dissolution of the systems and conditions that make up life as 未来
we know it. Discipline speaks to a future that is carefully managed,
either by a top-down entity or an ethos of collaboration. Finally, the 的 的
Transform model describes a future in which a profound historical 的 的未来
transition has occurred; this transition can be ideological, spiritual, 的
or technological in nature. 作的 未来
的
的未来
的 的 者
的

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 未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

4 Arcs Diagram
四个弧度

Present Future
未來 當下

Grow
增长

Collapse

Discipline

Transform

GROW - A scenario where things continue building as they do in our current world.
增长－ 的 的 的

COLLAPSE - A scenario where things fail leading to a drastically different world.

崩溃－ 的 的 的

DISCIPLINE - A scenario where things plateau in a way that enables a world of stasis.
平衡 － 的 的

TRANSFORM - A scenario where some unexpected event changes the world in an

unforeseeable way.
转变－ 的 的

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FUTURES WHEEL
未来

的 A methodology for identifying the potential consequences

的 的 的 of trends and events. The scenario in question is placed
at the center of the wheel, and direct, first-order
的 的 consequences of that scenario are placed as spokes
的 around that central issue. Next, indirect (second-, third-,
and fourth-order) consequences branch out from direct
来 未来 consequences, thereby providing a web-like map of the
的 的 implications of a future occurrence or condition.

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未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

Futures Wheel Diagram:

未来之轮图示

TERTIARY
CONS
EQU
EN
CE
S第
三
层

次
SECOND
ARY

后
CO

果
NS
EQ
UE
NC
ES
次要
后果

TREND/EVENT
趋势／事件

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THE THING FROM THE FUTURE

来 未来的

A speculative game designed by Stuart Candy and Jeff Watson at Stuart Candy Jeff Watson
the Situation Lab. Players are tasked with collaboratively and/or 的
competitively describing objects from a range of alternative futures, 的 来
aiming to come up with the most entertaining and thought-provoking 未来 的
description of their imagined future object. The game consists of a 未来
deck of 108 cards, which are divided into four different types: Arc, 的 作
Terrain, Object, and Mood. Arc cards determine the trajectory of 108
the future in which the object in question will exist. Terrain cards 的
determine the physical or conceptual context in which the object will
be found. Object cards give the thing from the future a general form. 的 的未来的
Finally, Mood cards describe emotions the object in question might 的
evoke in an observer from the present. 的
来 未来的
的
的
者 的

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 未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

TO BE DESIGNED KIT
工作

An open-ended design fiction work kit produced by the Near Future 未来 作 作

Laboratory collective, meant to help define the core elements of 的 工作
a speculative designed product. The kit includes a deck of Design 的
Fiction Design Brief Creation Playing Cards; a Design Fiction Product 来
Design Idiom Reference booklet; blank playing cards; and two six- 的
sided dice (one of which is blank and one of which is numbered). The 的 手册 的
blank components of the kit are to be filled in at the user’s discretion.
的
的 者
的

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POLARITY MAP AND SCENARIOS

A polarity map is a chart with four quadrants, on which ideas and

events can be plotted according to their adherence to four extreme 的 的
conditions. For example, the poles along one axis might measure 的
whether something is safe or dangerous, while the other axis
measures whether its cost is low or high. Participants in a futures 来
workshop can use polarity maps as a basis for imagining future 的
scenarios and considering multiple future scenarios in relation to one 未来推演工作 的
another. 者 作 来
未来 的
未来 的

The Extrapolation Factory experimented with the polarities method at a two

day futures workshop at Z33 in Belgium. With access to a nearby A/V studio,
this workshop became the platform to launch a new home-shopping network
called Telstar. Over the course of the workshop, participants envisioned future
artifacts and then created short advertisements to tell the story of their products.
33 的未来工作 未来推演工厂 的
工作 的工作 来 的
工作 的 者 未来的 的 来 的
的

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BISOCIATION

A term coined by Arthur Koestler in his 1964 book The Act of Creation, Arthur Koestler
bisociation refers to the inherent multivalent—or, in Koestler’s 的 行 的
thinking, multiplanar—nature of the creative act. Creative thought 的 的
and production exists, he says, in a “transitory state of unstable 的 来 的
equilibrium where the balance of both emotion and thought is 行 的
disturbed.” In art, bisociation is a juxtaposition of distinct planes
or aspects of experience. In the context of our futures-oriented 的
endeavors, participants consider multiple potential future elements— 的
which can be seen as distinct planes, each with its own context and 的 的 的
set of rules and idioms—and through their juxtaposition, extrapolate 未来 的 的
an entirely new scenario. 者 的未
来 作 的
的
的
Students at Public School 147 in Bushwick were 的 推 的
challenged to use bisociation to imagine new mobile
services that could change social scenarios in their
neighborhood over the next 20 years.
147 的 的
来 未来的20 的

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ALTERNATIVE UNKNOWNS METHOD

的未

The Alternative Unknowns method, developed by The Extrapolation 的未 未来推

Factory in 2015, offers a way to set up live-action simulators to 演工厂 来的 作
serve as design prototyping tools, allowing designers to investigate, 的工
experiment, propose, and test within these system-level challenges. 的
The method draws upon the scenario simulations devised by
emergency management groups, the military and the police for 的 作
training and evaluation within system-oriented contexts. The
Alternative Unknowns method requires a series of constants: a group 的
of simulation enactors, a constructed simulation environment, a 的
simulation script, a set of curated props, and a group of designed 的未 的
artifacts or experiences which may alter the outcome of the simulation, 来的的
depending on how they’re incorporated into the simulation once 的
it begins. Multiple improvisational simulations are conducted, (a 的
minimum of four) each starting with the same script, but revealing
different unknown outcomes based on the incorporation of the 者
designed artifacts. 的
的
的
的 的 未

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CONTEXT ORGANIZATION

LIVE-ACTION SIMULATOR
DIRECTOR

DESIGNER

SCENARIO
WRITER
SPECULATIVE ARTIFACT
PRE-ENACTMENTS
ACTORS

ANALYSIS

All parties meet to decide on the Scenario at periphery of Scenario informs Multiple pre-enact- All parties meet to analyze
scenario context is used by directors director’s creation of ments take place, pre-enactments and make
and designers simulator, designer’s combining simulator recommendations
creation of speculative and artifacts
artifacts
次
件

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未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

STORYMAKING

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未来 Futures do not exist in a vacuum. Inherent in every

的未来 的 potential future are its roots in past and present societal,
economic and technological conditions; as well as its
的 的 projected impact on the individual and the culture in
的未来推演 which it operates. Teasing out these contexts—and
工作 allowing for complexity and indeed contradiction
者 的 within the landscape of futures participants dream
未来 up—is central to our process. We refer to this process
来 未来 的 as storymaking, the imagining of a new need borne
的 未来 of a potential future condition. The future need is then
的 translated into the familiar language of a product—or
的 的 the suggestion of a product—designed to fulfill it. This
未来 的 scenario allows future visions to hint at intersecting and
的 来 未来的 often overlooked aspects of culture by situating futures
的 的 in the relatable language of production, evaluation, and
consumption.

的 工作 In workshops such as our Junk Mail Machine—installed

的 的 at the Storefront for Art and Architecture as part of
者 their BEING exhibition in 2013—participants interacted
的 行 with a physical machine installed on the exterior wall
of the Storefront. After choosing two scenarios from a
者 工作 来 database, participants filled out a worksheet in which
的 they were prompted to imagine a hypothetical product
的 or service at the nexus of their two plausible futures. They
的工作 的 then passed their worksheets through a slot in the wall—
未来推演工厂的 with Extrapolation Factory designers waiting on the other
的 者 的 side to bring their futures to life. In just a few minutes,
the machine would spit out a piece of future junk mail,
未来的 touting the virtues of everything from Artisanal GMOs to
的 DreamTube—a YouTube-like platform for broadcasting
工 DreamTube one’s dreams.
YouTube 的
的

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未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

With the junk mail machine we invited people passing by

to imagine future services and then design a piece of junk
mail to visualize the concept - to be sent to an address of
the visitor's choice, as well as displayed at the storefront.
来 未来 的
来 的
者 的

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As Nick Foster has written, the future is “an accretive space,” in which Nick Foster 的 未来
the brand-new commingles with the outdated. Humans, he reminds 的
us, are “covetous, sentimental and resourceful; they cling to things.”
The idea of an accretive future calls to mind our Time Slice—in which 的 的 的
items from different eras exist next to one another, each of them 的未来
contributing cumulatively to the ever-shifting ecosystem of products 的
we consider contemporary. The nuances and mundanities of an 来 的
accretive future are effaced in the shimmering futures of Hollywood 的
science fiction, in which there are few connective threads leading 作 的
back to the present. While there is certainly something aesthetically 的未来的 的
bewitching about these big-budget futures, they ring hollow. We do 的 未来
not—nor will we ever—live within what Foster calls a “unique visual
singularity ”; we’ve designed the Extrapolation Factory process 的 手 的
to not only recognize this fact but to leverage it towards incisive
observations.
Foster 的
Commingling the past with the future in the guise of a product allows 的 未来推演工
us to process hypotheticals in a different way than we would in a more 厂的
clinical setting. Futuring is predicated on a series of logical leaps, 的
and much of our ability to make these leaps hinges on a balance
between inhabiting and pushing the boundaries of our languages of 未来 的
consumption. When an advertisement for Limbs for Loans ends up in 的
your mailbox between a postcard from a friend and your exorbitantly 未来推演的
expensive cable bill, you process that information differently than 的
you would watching a film, seeing an exhibition, or reading a book
or academic paper. 的

We are interested in this Moment of Evaluation—when you encounter 的 的

an object (for instance, a piece of junk mail), you read it, assess 的 的
it, and evaluate it in a split second. We hypothesize that viewers 的
may extend this process of instinctual, instantaneous evaluation to
proposed future scenarios when displayed within these contexts.

的 的

行
的未来

的
来 未来

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未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

Commingling the past with

the future in the guise of a
product allows us to process
hypotheticals in a different
way than we would in a more
clinical setting.

未来
的
的

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Over the course of the experiment, a range of

future services were imagined, including Artisanal
GMOs, 1-800-DRONE INJURY, the Ancestry
Afterlife Dream Hotel, and Limbs for Loans.
的 的未来 来
手工 1-800- 来

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 未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

As with many of our workshops, we feel the outcomes of 的工作 的

the Junk Mail Machine are most dynamic when viewed 者
as a group: a range of micro-narratives that together 的
present a landscape of what participants imagine the 的
future could be. Technology is, of course, a key actor in 者 的 未来
any consideration of a landscape of futures. Even when 的
the stories being made in a workshop are explicitly 未来 的 工作
being told in one language (a piece of junk mail, an item 来
on a 99¢ store rack, an object changing hands on the 99
black market), on a meta-level they are all speaking 的 手的
the language of technology. Technology, in its broadest 的
sense, is a key influence on the way(s) the future could 的 作 来
unfold. 的
未来的
The Extrapolation Factory’s project is one of investigating
our relationships to technology, but doing so in a 未来推演工厂的 未来的
speculative manner. We are not interested in defining 来 的
our present or future interactions with technologies, 未来
but rather in provoking participants and observers to 的 行 者
theorize ways in which we could interact with technology, 来 的
and how technology could be leveraged to create the 来
futures we imagine. 的未来

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FABRICATION

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Exploded view of Currency Converter from 99¢ Futures

99美分未来的货币兑换器解图

Currency Converter - Exploded View

Rubber tube
Flashlight

Dental tool
Pedicure toe separator

Eyelash curler

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 未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

The future doesn’t seem so far

away anymore when you can
pick it up off the shelf.

的未来 未来

Perhaps the most visually definitive aspect of our process has been 未来推演
the manifestation of participants’ ideas into physical prototypes. 的 者
The fabrication of an object allows ideation to open up beyond the 的
confines of linear thought, rendering abstract hypotheticals in a 的 作
tangible visual language. “Tangibilizing” is the fulcrum between the 的 的
ideation undertaken during Extrapolation Factory workshops, and 工作
the contextualization of the resulting work in a contemporary real- 的
world setting. Interacting with a tangible object—whether through 的
viewing it in an exhibition or even purchasing it in a 99¢ store or 99
sidewalk black market—lends legitimacy to the ideas represented by 的
that object. The future doesn’t seem so far away anymore when you 的
can pick it up off the shelf. 的未来
未来

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A participant developing a device that

allows the user to compose and assign
new sounds to small critters.
者
的

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We have found that the careful curation of materials is vital to

the creation of successful objects. When sourcing materials
for an Extrapolation Factory workshop, we keep the following
guidelines in mind:
我们发现对材料的精心挑选对于创造成功的物品至关重要。在采购未
来推演工厂工作坊的材料时，我们牢记以下的准则：

1. Quantity and diversity are key when selecting materials. Make

sure there are enough different materials that each created product
can have its own individual look, and that there is enough of each
material to go around. Provide materials and objects in a variety of
scales, colors, and levels of detail.
在选择材料时，数量和多样性是关键。 的 来
的 的 的
者 的

2. Materials should be ambiguous in form. Choose objects that

are versatile and can be easily deconstructed, repurposed, or
reconfigured from their original use. The materials provided should
inspire participants to push the boundaries of their intended uses.
材料的造型应该是模糊不确定的。 的 的
的 的 者
的

3. Packaging is as important as the product itself. The design of

consistent and believable packaging materials has become an
integral part of our fabrication process. For some projects, such as
99¢ Futures and the Futurematic series, (a trilogy of futures workshops
we organized with Stuart Candy and Jeff Watson of The Situation
Lab) this has meant designing a consistent visual language for labels
and containers; for other projects, such as the Telstar shopping
network, ‘packaging’ has taken the form of inhabiting the trappings
of a recognizable form of consumption (in this case, an infomercial).
包装和产品本身一样重要。 的 的 未来推演的
的 99 的未来 Futurematic
的

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4. The raw state of the material should communicate context. While

materials should not be limiting in their intended uses, they should
also be expressive enough to aid in the creation of ‘believable’
products. For example, the physical properties of surgical steel,
human hair, cheap plastic, and teak all say very different things to a
viewer, and can all be used in different ways.
材料的原生态应当符合针对的未来设想想要表达的语境。
的 的 来 的
手 的 的 的 的 者
的 的

5. No Miniatures. Unless intended, try not to procure materials that

encourage participants to create miniature models. An artifact at
one-to-one scale fits into our human sized surroundings, whereas
a miniature is almost always inherently incapable of being read as
a genuine item.
不鼓励创造微缩版的物品。 的 者
的 的
的

6. No pipe-cleaners. Pipe cleaners and other conventional craft

items have a distinct aesthetic that immediately indicates a certain
genre of activity. In addition, we’ve found that connecting objects
with pipe cleaners rather than hot-glue or other means doesn’t look
aesthetically believable as a product. However connecting objects
with rubber or silicone tubes works really well.
不用绒毛棒。 的手工 的
的 来
的 来
的作 的

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Students from the Transdisciplinary Design program at Parsons

School of Design browsing a knolled library of materials.
的 的

Waves Pick Comb

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Mesh Sink Strainer

Fibreglass insulated silicone tubing

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While the fabrication process itself is meant to be relatively open- 的

ended, we have found over the course of our practice that it is useful 的
to approach the process by considering how materials can be used to 的
communicate the features of an idea. Certain shapes and materials 来 的
imply certain functions—for example, shapes that seem grab-able 的
or a texture that is (or at least appears) medical. Choosing the right 的
materials can do a lot of legwork in conveying the intended use of 来 来 的 者
your future product. 的 的
的 的
未来 的
的 工作

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的 作 的 It is also useful to consider your product as one part of a larger

的 whole. By imagining your object as the embodiment of one part of
的 a complex ecosystem, or even positing it as part of a multi-part kit—
的 的 者 examples include the Elegant Ecosystems kit (“Preserve undiscovered
作 的 biodiversity while beautifying your home!”) and the Child Share Info-
的 的 Kit (“Raise a child for two weeks per year!”). Product kits allow one
工 未 的 object to imply a larger and more complex sequence of behaviors.
的
的

的行

The third factor in the creation of a successful product is its 的 的

believability. This might seem a rather slippery “you’ll-know- 的
it-when-you-see-it” objective. The believability of an object is 来 的
influenced by many factors, including its form-factors (shape, size, 的
texture, etc.) and varying levels of detail. By considering a user- 的
scenario for your speculative product, and including materials that 的
have varying degrees of intricacy, you can ensure that your product 的未来 的
will feel real. 的
的 的

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CONTEXTUALIZATION

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In every project we undertake, it is important for us to take the objects 手的 未来推

produced during Extrapolation Factory workshops and contextualize 演工厂工作 的
them in a real-world setting. Contextualization allows us to leverage 的
existing consumer behaviors towards the evaluation of possible
realities by placing speculative products in environments where an 的
evaluative state is already intuitive. It is this moment of evaluation 的 行 来 未来 的
that opens up a valuable feedback loop between the futures studies 的
methods employed in our workshops and the impulses consumers 工作 的
employ when making shopping decisions. Interacting with a future 未来 者
artifact in a contextualized environment—a vending machine, a 的 的 的
store, or even an online-shopping interface—engages people on a 的 未来
visceral level, allowing them to consider possible futures in concrete
terms beyond the anesthetized and aestheticized futures posited by
Hollywood movies and corporate advertising campaigns.
的未来
来的
未来

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Interacting with a future artifact in a

contextualized environment engages people
on a visceral level, allowing them to
consider possible futures in concrete terms
beyond the anesthetized and aestheticized
futures posited by Hollywood movies and
corporate advertising campaigns.

未来 的
的未来

来的未来
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 未来推演工厂－操作者的执行手册

的 As our practice has evolved, we have experimented with many

的 的 different contextualization processes, from the meticulously planned
的 的 的 to the impulsive. Our choice of venue is informed by the design
的 brief of the project in question, as well as considerations for clients
作 的 or partners. In some of our projects—for example, our inaugural
的 99¢ Futures installation—the decision of where to contextualize
的 99 的未来 the products is moot, since the conceit of the project itself is
的 contingent on a particular consumptive environment. Others, such
的 的 as our Sym(micro)biotics project, leave contextualization more up to
的 的 interpretation.
的
的 99¢ Futures was our first and most formative contextualization
process to date. We found a family-owned 99¢ store and pharmacy
99 的未来 in Brooklyn and approached the owners with a trade: in exchange
的 for allowing us to host our temporary concept store, we would design
and execute a series of themed window displays. Over the course
的 99 of five months leading up to 99¢ Futures’ Time Warp Opening, we
collaborated with the owners to execute a Holiday-themed window
的 display—an arrangement of red and green products in the shape
的 of a giant 99¢ price tag—and a Valentine’s Day edition featuring a
99 的未来 bounty of plastic roses and electric shavers. During the opening itself,
的 we worked alongside the store’s real employees, donning pharmacy
作 的 coats, sweeping floors, and directing customers to the latest futuristic
的 offerings. Following our event, we hung up our lab-coats and
的 99 returned the front window to its contemporary state.
的
的
的 工 工作

的未来
的
的

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The contextualization for our Sym(micro)biotics workshop 工作 的

materialized in an almost completely opposite way from 99¢ Futures. 99 的未来
We had been invited to run a workshop for envisioning future
biotechnology devices at a design festival in Raleigh, North Carolina 工作
called the Hopscotch Design Festival. We wanted to exhibit the 来 未来的
resulting products to a scientifically interested audience, and decided 工作 的
the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences was a natural fit, 的
although we came into the process with no direct contact at the 的
museum. A colleague at Hopscotch (whose uncle happened to work
at the museum) put us in touch with the curator, who initially offered 的
us a brief exhibition of the products on tables in the museum’s lobby. 工作的 的
The results of the workshop—everything from a synthetic marine 工作 的
bacteria that harvests gold nanoparticles from seawater to a tool
for harvesting cat gut-microbes that cause personality changes in 的 作 的
humans—were so compelling, however, that the curator located a 工作 的
series of glass display cases to house the products. The exhibition 的
ended up being one of our longest-running installations yet, lasting
three months. 的 的工
的
来

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The North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences hosted an

exhibition of biotechnology devices and innovations from the
future, each revealing a symbiotic relationship we could have with
synthetic microorganisms as parts of our day to day lives in 2050.
未来 的
2050 的

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的 Some of our other projects have presented unique

的 的 obstacles to contextualization that required some
来 unconventional thinking to surmount. What venue, for
的 example, would amplify the particularity of New York
的 的未 City’s ubiquitous informal economy? For the second
来 的 installment of our Futurematic series, which tasked
的 者 participants with imagining products that would be
的 未来的 的 bought and sold on a future black market, the answer
的 was a vacant storefront in Canal Street. With no explicit
的 permission and very little advance notice, we hastily
的 made a sign on the street vendor standard yellow plastic
的 sheet—advertising “Discount Genuine Possibilities”—and
的 fashioned a series of DIY hooks for the products out of
的 magnets and screws. We slapped the magnetic hooks on
的 the storefront’s corrugated metal facade and our black
的 market was open for business. In this case, the gritty,
的 的 slapdash atmosphere of our contextualization was
的 apropos to the conceit of the project itself.
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REFLECTION

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As we look back on the first few years of 的

our practice, we are happy to say that
the instinct and inspiration that led us to 的
launch our first project continues to be 的 未来
validated in surprising and affirming ways 推演工厂的 的
with each new endeavor. We began the 未来 的
Extrapolation Factory with a hunch that
democratizing design futures theories 的
and methods would not only be a boon 的 的
to the field of speculative design itself, 来 推 未来 的工
but would also share the approaches we 作 的
find impactful with broader spectrum of 的
communities as they envision futures and 的 的
work towards them. The more we do this 的 工
work, the more we believe we are indeed
providing that value, and, covalently, the
more our own practice is strengthened
with the addition of each new model,
tool, and point of view.

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We believe the core of our practice 的

is solid, and as we move forward, we 的
hope to leverage what we’ve learned 的来 的
to reach new audiences and share the 未来推演工厂的
Extrapolation Factory process with 的 的 来
communities that are interested in 的 未来
using it. While we come from a western 的
perspective, we believe the flexibility 的
of futures methods may be an asset for
other perspectives. By sharing what 的 作者
we’ve learned, we hope to enable— 的 未来的
rather than dominate or predetermine— 的
productive conversations with a diversity 的未
of collaborators, introducing different 来推演 未来推演工厂的 的
experiences, values, and worldviews to 未来 的
current global conversations about the 的
future. While we are always expanding 的 的
our repertoire of futures approaches,
the aim of the Extrapolation Factory 的 作
isn’t necessarily to uncover the “next big 的
thing” in design futures; rather, we view 的
our practice as the continual building 来
upon a body of methodological research. 未来的
We hope to be as much of a resource to 的
those with whom we collaborate and
who come into contact with our work—
whether it be through a stranger-than-
usual provision for sale in a Canal Street
black market; or through calling a toll-
free hotline to request a “future present”
for a friend or loved one; or even through
reading this book.

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作 We see this book as a document that shares what we’ve

的 的 的未 accomplished so far and, in true Extrapolation Factory
来推演工厂 来 的 fashion, open-sources our learning and strategies for
的 people to use as they’d like. While this practice started
with the two of us, it certainly does not end there; we
来 invite you to organize your own Extrapolation Factory
的未来推演工厂工作 workshop and see what comes of it.

的 In order to facilitate this, and in recognition of the

未来 的 inherently interconnected nature of the global future,
的 的 the initial printing of this book features all text in both
未来 推 English and Chinese, with more languages to come.
的 未来 When explaining the enduring importance of futures
的 research, we often return to the metaphor of wayfinding
的 的未来的 points. When we look into the constellation of possible
的 来 futures, the array of options presented to us by sources
的 未来 like Hollywood and politicians are quite often clustered
的 into stereotypically binary (dark/light, red/blue)
bunches, with relatively few outliers. The waypoints that
的 lead toward “other” are few and far between. We believe
的未来 that a democratized approach to futures will expand the
的 number of waypoints we have in front of us which, in turn,
的 will allow us to see yet to be imagined, more promising
未 的 的未来 visions of possible futures.

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By sharing what we’ve learned, we hope to enable—rather

than dominate or predetermine—productive conversations
with a diversity of collaborators, introducing different
experiences, values, and worldviews to current global
conversations about the future.

的
的 作者
的 未来的
的
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REFLECTIONS / INTERVIEWS:

Geoff Manaugh & Nicola Twilley (former directors of Studio-X NYC)

Geoff Manaugh 和 Nicola Twilley（纽约X工作室的前主任）

EF: What struck you about the Extrapolation Factory project we did
with you guys at Studio-X NYC?
EF 工作 未来推演工厂的 的 的

NT: I really like 99¢ stores and the idea that that could be where traces
of the future could be found, because they seem so weird and there
is such an odd combination of things in there that it does feel like
you could find a strand of everything including the future already, by
going to a 99¢ store. That part made it really compelling. Especially
because I feel like the future vision you usually see depicts a wildly
expensive Virtual Reality headset or an unbelievably expensive
medical prototype that will do something, and the idea that there
will be 99¢ stores in the future and you’ll be able to find those type
of things there also makes your brain work in a different direction.
Maybe you’re not buying the thing, but you’re buying the knock off
refill for the thing. So it just forces you to think slightly differently. I
think that aspect really set it apart, the idea of creating artifacts of
representing something that is from the future is super interesting
and is something that the Design Interactions program does a lot of
and does it really well, but the 99¢ store really hit the money. That
part of the future really doesn’t get thought through very often.
NT 99 未来的
的 99 来 的
未来的 未来的
的 者 的
99 未来 的
来 的未来 未来 的
来 的
的 来 未来 的 的
的 的 的 99
来 未来 的 的
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GM: That’s funny, too. I remember growing up in the 80’s when stores
like Brookstone and Sharper Image were, in retrospect, kind of in the
heyday of their sales. My dad was a huge Sharper Image fan but
it always seemed like that was exactly not the vision of the future.
They sold these sort of weird cobbled together objects, like a golf
club that plays mp3’s; these sort of random things and there was no
reason why anyone would want these type of objects. Some badly
thought through futurism that no one could afford anyway. Products
that were obsolete before they even left the store. Whereas bottom-
up futurism is the idea that the future doesn’t trickle down. It emerges
from the ground up. Which is also what’s interesting about the 99¢
store. It’s the cheap version of this.
GM 来 的 80 Brookstone Sharper
Image 的 Sharper Image 的
未来的 的
的mp3 的
的未来
的未来 未来
的 来 的 的 99 作
的 的 的 的未来

NT: And the mass produced aspect. It’s not just this prototype
accessible to only a few, it’s going to be this gigantic knocked off,
cheapo thing.
NT 的

GM: But also, even though this is less 99¢ and more the bodega
experience. I think what’s funny as well, if you’re in Mexico City,
in Tokyo or Beijing and you go to their version of 7-Eleven or their
version of a 99¢ store, there are often these random little things that
are seemingly ubiquitous - everyone must be buying this because
it’s cheap and it’s everywhere – But what in the world is it? I don’t
even understand what this object does or who would buy it, but yet
nonetheless in the culture of that place I guess this is a useful object.
It feels futuristic even though it already exists, but it has a kind of
alien objectness to it. And I think there is an interesting aspect to that.
If you take these futuristic ideas and you package them as everyday
products and then stick them in a 99¢ store, they kind of look like
they belong. One will assume that some other kind of ethnic group
or some other class group is using that object. So I guess people buy
Void Refills and it doesn’t necessarily look like it’s from the future
anymore.
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GM 99 的 99
的 的 者
的99 的

的 者 的
的 来
未来 来 的 来
的未来 99
的 的 的 的
来 的未
来

EF: We had an experience like that when we were in Belgium. We

kept going into these little dollar stores with rugs with compasses
stitched on to them… and then we realized they were prayer rugs
and they had to be directionally oriented when you’re praying, but it
was that exact experience that you’re talking about when you see this
thing and it doesn’t compute based on your understanding of what
you do on a day to day basis and what your needs are and then all
of a sudden it clicks.
EF 的
者的 的 的
的 的 的 的
的 行 的 来推

EF: What do you think has changed from the projects you’ve seen
come out of the Extrapolation Factory practice over the course of its
development?
EF 来 未来推演工厂的 的

NT: I have one quick thought. It was really interesting when you started
asking people to assess values to these artifacts, this added another
layer to the process. There it being this crowd-based extrapolation
process and then there was another encounter that you managed
to layer on top of it, were me and a lot of other people had to think
about these things and had to decide how much they were worth.
Which is amazing, because deciding what a thing’s worth is such
a fundamental relationship with things and something again that
doesn’t tend to happen when you try to imagine the future and future
artifacts. What is the sort of value system that’s gonna come with
these things, and why? So when you asked me, and I thought it’ll take
me 5 minutes, and then it was the hardest problem. I was googling
all kinds of things. I didn’t want to be unreasonable, but I didn’t know
what unreasonable was. You basically have to invent an entire logic
to answer a single thing. It’s like asking a question that requires this
entire alternative universe to answer this specific question. I found
that to be a really interesting process for generating really interesting
thoughts and provocations and conversations about the future. I had
not yet imagined you could continue that process beyond the making
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of the artifact, but to add a discussion of what it was worth. There

is probably a numerous number of other steps. If we’d for example
had to design the recycling process for these. I don’t know or what
are the byproducts of making this product. It seems like maybe there
are ways of to keep continuing layering those things, which is where
I think you really pushed it further.
NT 的 的
未来 的 的
的未来推演 者
的 的
未来的 的
的
的 的 的
的 的 的
来 的 的 来 未来
的 未来
未来推演的 的
的
的 的
的

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REFLECTIONS / INTERVIEWS:

Andrew Hessel (futurist at Autodesk)

Andrew Hessel（Autodesk公司的未来学家）

AH: I work as a molecular biologist that does computational

molecular biology and I am future oriented. These are all three things
that people cannot see with their eyes. They cannot see digital data
and the internet and all that, they can’t see molecular biology. They
don’t have a big enough microscope so they don’t have the mental
models of the sub cellular metabolism and most people can’t see the
future. So I’ve came to realize that most people think that I am just a
little bit crazy. The visionaries are the odd ducks. The thing that sets
people apart from the people that can actually visualize the path to
realizing their future and start to put the pieces in place, this is where
vision becomes a very powerful mediator of change and it makes
people creators and inventors. Again, as commonly said. Ideas are
cheap, it’s translating ideas into action where real value is generated
and that’s how I spend my days. I usually tend to catalyze the future
that I see to exist and I can make it very playful because of course
you don’t get to create the future. Let me rephrase that… the future
comes, the future you want doesn’t come just by being passive. It
comes by getting involved and by taking small steps, the ones that
you can make towards that and if other people like your vision and
plans and following behind you and hopefully you find yourself in a
better future than if you hadn’t acted.
AH 的工作 未来的
的 的
的 的
的 未来
者 的 未
来的 的 的
的 者 者 的
的 行 的
的 的未来 的
的 未来 来 未来 来
的未来 来的 来的
的 的 的
的 来 的未来 行
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EF: I think that’s a really nice translation between actions now and what happens tomorrow and
segways perfectly into the last question that we had. To ask, how that translation between the
ideas now and actions that impact the future can be opened up to a greater number of people,
especially if we talk about the notion of collective futures thinking. How do more people impact
the future? What are the relationships between these collective futures approaches and actual
change?
EF 的行 的 的 的
的 未来的行 的
来 未来 的 的 未来 未来的 的
的

AH: Huh, you know that’s a great question. It’s really tricky. I don’t have an absolute answer
for you here. When I was younger there was really just a one-way flow of news to the masses.
People didn’t have as much engagement with organizational processes. Today with the internet
we have much more potential agency to change things on a collective scale. Today we all have a
voice. We all participate in making the future. Now we can organize and have more of a voice as
groups and collectives and certainly when we get the right people organizing with the right tools
and the right vision, amazing things happen… and we came the way to see that on the verse of
new organizations and primarily companies. I think of something like space-x for example which
was really seeded by a singular by challenging the monopoly of building rockets. The culture that
emerged around space-x is much larger than that.

Let’s imagine this future where these rockets are taking us to different planets and that’s really
powerful. The type of inspiration and the ability to organize people and propel them forward
in more of a general collective or societal way doesn’t really exist today. But it’s kind of that we
are going to participate more and more into the future. Right now the US is gearing up for an
election process, which is an amazing long process for making a very small choice. We make
so many choices on a day to day basis, these things seem out of proportion. I really believe in a
future where these tools and processes allow us to be more participatory and real time, even just
looking over the comments on sites that promote news or distribute information you realize we
don’t know how to play together yet. We’re still in the early stages of creating collective minds,
processes or enterprises. We have to learn how to do that better, for the future. If you really think
you’re an outsider, chances are there is a million people like you. We’re really starting to think
globally and really just appreciate the complexity of the world around us, of the universe and the
systems that we’ve created kind of ad-hoc to carry us forward.
AH 的 手的 的 的 的
的 的 的
来作 未来的
来 作 的 的 的工 的 来
的 来 的 的
的 的 的
的 未来 的行 的 的
的 的 的 未来 来
作 的 行的 的
的 的 未来 未来 工
推 的 未
作 的 的 未来
的 的 的
的 的 来
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REFLECTIONS / INTERVIEWS:

Roy Campbell, Director of Exhibits and Digital Media, North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences
Roy Campbell,北卡罗来纳自然科学博物馆展览和数字媒体总监

EF: What do you remember about the project?

EF 的

RC: It’s interesting, I’m actually trying to remember how I found out
about you guys, do you remember?
RC 的

EF: I think the design festival organizer’s family member put us in

touch.
EF 的 的

RC: That would have been Bill Ross at the Department of Environment
and Natural Resources. So the reason I was interested is that we
opened this brand new facility and there was some art in the original
design but there wasn’t really any program about the intersection of
art and science, and that really intrigued me. The other thing was
that because it was in the Hopscotch Design Festival, an artistic event
that the city has, I wanted to link up with them as well. We’re on a
state campus, you could say, a part of the regular culture of the city
of Raleigh stands apart. And that doesn’t make any sense, art doesn’t
have any boundaries, and so I wanted to get involved and seeing
what you were doing was right up our alley. Although not completely
clear exactly what you were doing! Probably if I hadn’t gone to art
school I would have stayed away. Haha!
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EF: What did you think about using a museum in an alternative manner like this, where it becomes
a space for work to exist that’s not purely factual?
EF 作 的

RC: Right, so that’s the beauty of art, that you can do those things. I’ll tell you this too, as
background. When people think about art in natural history or science museums, it’s animal
art, and some of it is very bad art, or not very original art, even if it’s got good technique. And
it’s very very frustrating to be pigeon-holed that way. So your project, what I could see in there,
was that it was breaking out of that mold, and being able to explore more freely the effect or the
advantages that art avails to a science museum. And there was interesting things mixed into
that, the intersection of technology and science and art. And then also, as you said, “How far can
you go?” when you’re supposed to be a science museum which is (wrongly or rightly) perceived
to be nothing but fact. And here you were doing something that might be fantasy or something
of that order.
RC 的 的
的 的 者 的
的 的 的
的 的 的
的 的 的
的 者 的

EF: That’s an interesting point. Did you hear from people asking why is this non-factual work in
the museum, or raising any flags about the project?
EF 的作 者 的

RC: No, I can’t say that I did, you know the most of the feedback I got (and I didn’t get a lot of
feedback because I didn’t go seeking it) was that the project came so quickly that it didn’t get
the interpretation, or the contextual backgrounds that we usually supply for something that’s
an exhibit. What we chose to do was, well, you “aped” our graphics, and so it was potentially
indistinguishable from the factual exhibits we have, and that did cause some concern, some
worry, actually from people in my department, who work with us all the time, and that wasn’t
that they were necessarily bucking it but they were concerned about unintended consequences
to the public. All the time, we put things out that are fact based. We edit them, and make them
as salient as possible and then we put them out in front of public and they’re off and running
in a completely different direction than you ever thought. They have these other scaffolds and
they build on their scaffolds, so you find out that they’re taking your effort in an entirely different
direction.
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RC: So what museums do is we have programs and we provide

context. For instance, your premise was about synthetic biology. Let’s
say we were to do that again and I had a clearer idea of what you
were going to do and what the outcomes might be. A) we would try to
have that [Extrapolation Factory] activity here so the general public
could see that and potentially some of the general public could try
their own. But the other thing we could do is we could have people
from that field, synthetic biology, and they could be doing talks in the
cafe or in the daily planet, and there could be industry representatives
and lab representatives from academia and they could have tables
also on that same floor, where they’re talking about doing things that
are in fact, projects in process. So people could get a much fuller
understanding of what synthetic biology is. There are members of the
public who, if you say “synthetic biology” to them, they’ll be alarmed
- it’s attack of the killer tomato!
RC 的工作 的
的
的 的 行 未来推演工厂 的
来
的 的 行
的 行的
来 的 的
手 的

EF: I love the idea of bringing in scientists who actually work on

specific projects, and having them there as conveyors of information
but also as inspiration, to really get you to think about things in a way
that you probably would never have if you approached it by yourself
or with a much more stagnant bit of information in front of you.
EF 工作的 来
作 的来 的 来
的 的 者
的 的

RC: Right, so just as you prompted those students about some of the
potential ethics and so forth - that was the whole point of it, about
empowering or challenging a general public with these issues, and
trying to work them out, so if you have people who are working in that
field and they are also struggling with the ethical ramifications or
economic implications of it or the cultural implications of it, you could
talk to them and they would have an outlet, and they would be able
to take advantage of the stage or environment that you’ve created
where it’s a safe place to talk about these things!
RC 的
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EF: So I have one more question - as we’re working on projects

through our practice, one of the things we talk about a lot is the role
of this type of work to impact the future. So sometimes we talk about
it as a way to learn about the content of the project, while other times
we think of it as an opportunity to take a non-expert viewpoint and
inject that back into a space where the work is actually happening,
and potentially impact a future technology or future research area.
I’m curious to know what you think about work like this as an influ-
encer on the future.
EF 的 的
的工作 未来的 的 手
的 工作 的
未来的 未来的 工作作
未来的 者

RC: Well I certainly hope it does. The very first time I read an article
in Science Magazine about synthetic biology, it sort of set off some
bells in my head, and then when I read about the individual they were
talking about, who was trying to bio-engineer enzymes that could
break down the lignin in corn stalks so instead of making biofuel from
the corn, from food, they were making it from the stalks which were,
for lack of a better word, waste. And so that, to me, was a subject
that people need to know about, and think about the good and the
bad of, as well as the challenges of it. And I think that what you are
doing is a very creative way of doing that, in a way that’s open ended.
The example I just gave you was a factual response, and because
of that it was limiting, so somebody could walk away and could say
ok, synthetic biology means gasoline. So what you have instead,
you’ve created a playing field where that subject can go in a million
directions, and it also allows the general public to create things that
you or I never even thought about perhaps. So I think that’s what was
important. Our Nature Research Center has the same objectives - to
try to prepare people for the future, intentionally. It was doing that in
the same way that you are, which is, instead of showing results, it was
trying to show process. Representing science as process, not fact.
RC
的 的
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EF: Sometimes museum visitors or non-experts come with the ‘corn

stalk fuel’ way of thinking and that introduces another way of looking
at the science.
EF 者 的 的
来 的

RC: What that suggest to me, is if we could get a grant, it would be

really interesting to do this in a museum, but it would be interesting
to have a member of the public, an art student and a member of the
research field, and they could be sitting down at a table, declared or
undeclared - known to each other - and see what happens at that
table. The conversation would be kind of interesting and the results
would be kind of interesting.
RC 的
的 的

EF: That sounds fascinating!

EF 来

RC: And you could just monkey with that and try all types of different
combinations and think about the general public - people come
from different economic backgrounds, different scientific and artistic
acceptance values. It’d be kind of interesting to see what sparks fly.
We’d be game for that.
RC: 的
来 的 的 的 的
的

EF: We would too! Hey, this has been really fascinating and it’s
brought back great memories from over a year ago. We’re really
glad we were able to reach you! We’ll send you a copy of the book
when it’s done!
EF: 的 的
的

RC: Please do. You’ll have to sign your name in pipecleaners when
you do!
RC 的 来

EF: Ha ha! That’s right. And Dixie cups. Thanks Roy!

EF: Roy

RC: Thank you! Carry on!

RC:

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REFLECTIONS / INTERVIEWS:

Interview with David Benque, Instructor in Design Interactions at The Royal College of Art
与英国皇家学院交互设计艺术系导师David Benque的访谈

EF: We wanted to start off by just hearing what you remember about
the project we did with you guys.
EF 的 的

DB: I was actually thinking about this since you sent your email,
thinking back about nine months… And I guess for me, the big take
away, apart from all the details which I’m more than happy to go
into, and it’s great on so many different levels that deserve their own
discussion, but it really reminded me of something that I was told by
a teacher in my BA and he was teaching us about corporate identities
and he was like, “never forget that if you do a logo in one day, and
one in ten days, the one in ten days will not be ten times better.” It
was a Dutch pragmatic approach, which was great on another
setting, but he was like, “design works until it’s broken - it’s a solution
until you can break it and then you have to better it.” But basically,
that summed up the experience of forcing ourselves to dive in and
do a project from start to finish in a day. It’s quite impressive. It’s
even relevant as a practice, and when applied to speculation and
speculative design it’s even more relevant.
DB 的
来 的 的
的 的
的
的 的
的 作
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未来

EF: Yeah, that’s an interesting point. The framework or the time

constraint changes the way we speculate.
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DB: It was a really nice encapsulated thing, you know, a moment.

And from having taught these four week briefs a few times before
you guys joined us, it’s pretty much in a day what the four week brief
would be. Everyone’s on the spot, they have to produce something,
and that comes back to how do we explore ideas with things, and
that’s what Design Interactions and you guys and many people are
trying to do.
DB 的
的
作 来
的

EF: So, when we talked about running this workshop, we discussed

the idea that this would lead into the four week project. It would be
interesting for us to hear a little bit about what actually happened
after we left.
EF 行 工作 的 的

DB: After you left, things kindof resumed to normal, to be honest.

Students had cool ideas but got lost in research and after you know
it, two weeks have passed and there’s a week to make stuff and not
all of that is up to a good standard, but it definitely had some great
results. The variety and freshness and the ideas were really great.
DB 的 的
来
的 的
的 的

EF: Did you see any of the ideas that started in the workshop find their
way to the end?
EF 工作 的 来 的

DB: No. I didn’t. (Chuckles.) Sorry.

DB

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EF: No, that’s totally fine, and I think it’s interesting just to critically
assess this. It’s not about patting ourselves on the back here.
EF 的
的

DB: Absolutely. No, I think it set the tone more than people taking on
ideas. In a way, I think that’s great, because if you’re starting to put
on those expectations, it kind of kills it, doesn’t it. It’s like, “we’re going
to brainstorm and then you’re going to develop it for four weeks.”
Which in some ways… it would put too much pressure on and kill that
lovely spontaneous thing that’s happening in your workshop.
DB 的 执行
的 的
的
的 工作
的

EF: I think that’s really right on. One of the things we’ve been
hearing from other folks we’ve interviewed is the notion that because
there’s not pressure in these scenarios, it really does feel like you
can do something and then walk away and you’re not liable for the
consequences of this thing, you’re able to be a little more adventurous
and playful. Yeah, that’s really interesting.
EF 的 的

的 的 的

EF: What did the students say about the workshop after we were
gone? What were their reactions?
EF 的 的

DB: I think they found it enjoyable, I can’t remember anyone having

problems with it, but it also wasn’t that much mentioned - they fell
into their area of interest and push everyone to find their own space.
I did remind them at the end, a week before, “and remember, if
you’re feeling lost” (because you know there are always some that
are lost and haven’t started making anything) “just let everything go
and redo one day like you did in the workshop, and remember that
energy and try to just do that.”
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REFLECTIONS / INTERVIEWS:

Interview with Molly O’Brien and Treasure, a former student at Public School 147
Molly O’Brien对Treasure的采访，之前在“公立学校147”就读的一位学生

M: Two years ago, you did a project with artists Chris and Elliott,
when you were in elementary school. So now, what do you remember
about this project?
M: 的 Chris Elliott

T: Having a lot of fun. It was like fun work. It was a lot of work that
we had to do, but it was also fun, how we did the things that we did.
T: 的工作 的工作
的

M: It was a lot of work, and in a pretty short amount of time - only a

few classes, so it all happened pretty fast. Do you remember what
the project you made was about? What kind of ideas were you
connecting to?
M: 的工作
的 的

T: Yeah, we started talking about things that would make the world
a better place, and if we could make that thing into a truck or a car
and take it to places. So everybody had their ideas. In the first class,
everybody finished their ideas and then they hung them up and then
they said, “Ok, now everybody’s going to get a different idea.” People
got paired up and then everybody tried to work on somebody else’s
vision on what could help the world.
T: 的 的
的 的
的 来
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M: Right, you switched ideas. How did you feel about that part?
M:
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T: It was kind of hard, because there was just a drawing of it had to be.
There was no real explanation of what it was supposed to do. So it was
kind of hard envisioning it in someone else’s way, but me and my partner
tried as best as we could.
T: 来 的
的 的 的 作
的

M: So you had to kind of fill in the gaps of someone else’s original idea. So
do you remember what idea you had?
M: 的 的

T: We had gotten the idea of a truck that went around and helped the
people that couldn’t eat. It would go around and take care of the people
who didn’t have homes and it would give them a place to eat and a place
for them to stay for a little while.
T: 的 的
的 的

M: And do you remember any of the materials that you used to make it?
M: 作 的

T: We used a lot of things that you wouldn’t normally use to make something
like that. There were a lot of weird things. There were things that had to do
with hair, and plants… it was really fun getting to use all of the stuff.
T: 的 来 作 工作 的
的 的

M: Maybe materials you wouldn’t think of using for art. I remember a lot
of bugs too. Do you think this project made you think about the future in a
different way?
M: 的 的 的
的 来 未来

T: Yes, it made me think that in the future, if we have better technology than
we do today, we most likely would be able to help people that we couldn’t
help, and it would kind of change how the world is.
T: 的 未来 的
的 的

M: Do you think adults and kids think about the future in a different way?
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T: Yes. Adults grew up in a time where they had different things they
did. They grew up with things that actually did talk about the future,
like certain shows. So they thought there would be flying cars and
that type of stuff. And I still do think that there probably will be flying
cars, but now I think that we’re going to have a lot of things that have
to do with electronics and that we’re not going to have to do anything
and that robots are going to take over.
T: 的 的 未来的
未来 的 的
行
的

M: Why might it be important for kids to think about the future?

M: 未来 的

T: If they think about the future, they might get a better sense of how
they feel about it. If they actually think about what’s going to happen
in the future, they might have a chance to not just say, “Oh, I think that
we’re going to have flying cars and animals that can talk” but there’s
a possible change that could happen, a big change that could help
change the world.
T: 未来 的
未来 的
的 的 的

M: Instead of just letting the future happen, maybe they’d do more

action. I totally agree. So you did this one project about the future.
Can you think of other projects or ideas that would be interesting for
kids to do about the future? This was the idea of cars doing these
services for people, to help them. What other projects could kids do
about the future?
M: 的行 未来
未来的 未来的 来
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未来的 的
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T: I think kids could probably paint a picture on how they view the world
would be, and not only paint it, but take the things that we have now and
change them. So it could be better, or just leave them out completely.
T: 来 未来的 的
来 的 者

M: That would be cool, I’d like to see that. What are some things that you’d
like to see in your future?
M 的 的 未来 的

T: I’d probably like to see things that would help people. I would want more
people to be helped. The homeless people, I would want them to have a
place to stay for a while so they can get back up on their feet. And for the
people that don’t get food in Africa, for them to be able to have food.
T: 的 的 的
来
的 的

M: I like that you’re thinking about the world and not just yourself. Anything
for yourself?
M:

T: As of now, no.
T: 来

M: Thanks Treasure!
M: Treasure!

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REFLECTIONS / INTERVIEWS:

Jim Dator Interview

和Jim Dator的访谈

We are particularly interested in these futures workshop and we

came across in The World Futures essay in the Spring issue of Critical
Inquiry by Chicago University Press. There was the article you wrote
back in the days, “From Future Workshops to Envisioning Alternative
Futures,” and there is a really nice reference to Robert Jungk and
people who have been doing participatory futures work that’s not
necessarily with organisations but with communities and with groups
that are not necessarily in think tanks. That’s something we would be
interested to hear your take on: what’s your particular research in the
field? Who did you come across?
未来工作 的
未来 的 的 未来工作
的未来 Robert Jungk 作 的未来
工作的 的 的
的

Robert Jungk was actually entirely doing what you guys want to do,
focusing on community groups, organised or unorganised, to gain
control of the future, away from the corporations, and to some
extent, governments that were monopolising at the present time. I
would also add the media, that most strongly colonizes the future. My
point was really, to go immediately into envisioning fantasy, (but I am
going to say something about fantasy later) without doing the prior
work that I just talked about, you almost certainly are just problem
solving. You are dealing with current problems that piss you off, and
that’s nice, but that may or may not have anything to do with what’s
important for you to know about the future. And that I saw as the
fatal flaw in his activity. You could get people all riled up and get
them thinking about “well this is my vision” but their vision is entirely
backward oriented. It’s entirely dealing with what they are pissed off
about. And those may be the same issues in the future, but they are
often not, and that’s where the work of the futurist and the use of
alternative futures is so important.
Robert Jungk 的 的
来 未来的
的 未来 的 的 的
的 的
工作 的 的
的 的 的 未来的
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的 的 的
来 的 的 的
的 未来 的
未来 的工作 的未来 作 的

It’s our job as futurists to bring in ideas about the future that the community
does not have in its mind at the present time, either because they can’t
know about it or because they are so focused on certain things, they don’t
think about it. Futurists make them think about these other aspects of what
the futures might be like, before they then go to the visioning process.
作 未来 的 的 未来的
者 未来
的未来 的

EF: That’s super interesting, and it makes a lot of sense too. I think the
experiences we have had where we started out with more of the fantasy
really result in concepts that play back to the challenges we are facing
currently. That’s the low hanging fruit for people, that’s the easy territory.
EF 的 来
的 的 来
的

JD: Let me say then something about fantasy because this is where I differ
most profoundly from most of the rest of the world, and certainly with my
students who just know what I am about to say, and would roll their eyes. I
really would not use the term “fantasy” and I certainly would never mention
“science fiction.” I think science fiction, especially as it’s portrayed in movies
and games is so powerful in terms of colonizing your images of the future
that I want people to not refer to: “oh yeah I saw the Matrix, that’s what it’s
like,” or whatever the current science fiction movie of the time is. Well it’s
not like that. Those things are produced to separate you from your money.
They are not intended to be accurate guides to the future. And I think we
have all sorts of misconceptions about artificial intelligence and so forth as
a consequence of sci-fi. I wish I could produce my lectures with the sound
effects and the music and actors and all the rest that the sci-fi people are
able to do cause it goes right to our lizard-reptilian brain. “That’s what the
future is going to be like!” And getting people out of their fantastical sci-fi
futures is really important.
JD 的
的 的
来
未来的
来 的 的 未来
的 未来
工 的
的 演 的 的
的 － 未来 的 的
未来 的

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Finally, many thanks go out to our incredible team of assistants. Ava Burke
for assembling our ideas, Lillian Tong for translating our book into Chinese,
Sungmy Kim for many illustrations and diagrams, Adam Ridgeway and Emma
Verhoeven for designing and laying out the book, Ankita Roy for transcription,
Richard The and Frédéric Eyl and Lauren Wong for proof reading!

的 手 Ava Burke 的
手 Lillian Tong 的 Sungmy Kim
Adam Ridgeway Emma Verhoeven 的 Ankita Roy
Richard The Frédéric Eyl Lauren Wong

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