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Forecasting Methods for Enrollment

1. Using a 3-year and 5-year weighted average, the forecast enrollment for the University of Santo Tomas in 2019 is 6466.67 and 5660 respectively. The 2-year weighted moving average forecast for 2018 is 5900. 2. Using a 3-year weighted average, the forecast value of $1 in Philippine pesos in 1987 is 21.3333. The 2-year weighted moving average from 1982-1987 is shown. 3. Using a 5-week moving weighted average, the forecast sales for the 6th week at Aling Pasing's sari-sari store is ₱2740.

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Aljon Selga
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85 views6 pages

Forecasting Methods for Enrollment

1. Using a 3-year and 5-year weighted average, the forecast enrollment for the University of Santo Tomas in 2019 is 6466.67 and 5660 respectively. The 2-year weighted moving average forecast for 2018 is 5900. 2. Using a 3-year weighted average, the forecast value of $1 in Philippine pesos in 1987 is 21.3333. The 2-year weighted moving average from 1982-1987 is shown. 3. Using a 5-week moving weighted average, the forecast sales for the 6th week at Aling Pasing's sari-sari store is ₱2740.

Uploaded by

Aljon Selga
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Selga, Aldrin Jhon

BSIT

UNWEIGHTED AVERAGE
If the enrolment of ABE in 2017 was 800 and it was 820 in 2018 forecast for 2019

800 + 820 1620


F= = = 810
2 2

WEIGHTED AVERAGE FORECAST

1(800) + 2(820) 800 + 1640 2440


F= = = 813.33
3 3 3

MOVING AVERAGE FORECAST

Months Sales 3 Months MA 4 Months MA 6 Months MA


January 5
February 6.5
March 4.5
April 7 (5+6.5+4.5) / 3 = 5.33
May 6 (6.5+4.5+7) / 3 = 6.00 (5+6.5+4.5+7) / 4 = 5.75
June 8 (4.5+7+6) / 3 = 5.83 (6.5+4.5+7+6) / 4 = 6.00
July 5.5 (7+6+8) / 3 = 7.00 (4.5+7+6+8) / 4 = 6.38 (5+6.5+4.5+7+6+8) / 6 = 6.17
August 9 (6+8+5.5) / 3 = 6.50 (7+6+8+5.5) / 4 = 6.63 (6.5+4.5+7+6+8+5.5) / 6 = 6.25
September 10 (8+5.5+9) / 3 = 7.50 (6+8+5.5+9) / 4 = 7.13 (4.5+7+6+8+5.5+9) / 6 = 6.67
October 9.5 (5.5+9+10) / 3 = 8.17 (8+5.5+9+10) / 4 = 8.13 (7+6+8+5.5+9+10) / 6 = 7.58
November 9.75 (9+10+9.5) / 3 = 9.50 (5.5+9+10+9.5) / 4 = 8.50 (6+8+5.5+9+10+9.5) / 6 = 8.00
December 12 (10+9.5+9.75) / 3 = 9.75 (9+10+9.5+9.75) / 4 = 9.56 (8+5.5+9+10+9.5+9.75) / 6 = 8.63
Selga, Aldrin Jhon
1. Suppose that the University of Santo Tomas had the following record of its growth of enrolment from 2011-2019

Year Enrloment 3 Year 5 Year


2011 1200
2012 1500
2013 2000
2014 2500 (1200+1500+2000) / 3 1566.67
2015 3000 (1500+2000+2500) / 3 2000
2016 5800 (2000+2500+3000) /3 2500 (1200+1500+2000+2500+3000) / 5 2040
2017 6000 (2500+3000+5800) / 3 3766.67 (1500+2000+2500+3000+5800) / 5 2960
2018 7000 (3000+5800+6000) / 3 4933.33 (2000+2500+3000+5800+6000) / 5 3860

A. Forecast the 2019 enrolment using 3 year and 5 year Weighted Average Forecast
B. Use 2 year Weighted Moving Average Forecast from 2011-2019?
C. Forecast the 2019 enrolment using the Trend Projection

A.
1(5800)+2(6000)+3(7000) 5800+12000+21000 38800
F= = = = 6466.67
6 6 6

1(2500)+2(3000)+3(5800)+4(6000)+5(7000) 2500+6000+17400+24000+35000 84900


F= = = = 5660
15 15 15

B.
Year Enrolment 2 Year
2011 1200
2012 1500
2013 2000 (1200+1500) / 2 1350
2014 2500 (1500+2000) / 2 1750
2015 3000 (2000+2500) / 2 2250
2016 5800 (2500+3000) / 2 2750
2017 6000 (3000+5800) / 2 4400
2018 7000 (5800+6000) / 2 5900
Selga, Aldrin Jhon
2. Suppose that the value of one dollar compared to the peso grew as follows

Year Value of $1 in ₱ A. Forecast the value of one dollar in 1987 using a 3 year Weighted Average
1980 ₱7.50 B. Show moving 2 year Weighted Average Forecast from 1982-1987
1981 ₱7.50 C. Using a Exponential Smoothing with ∝=0.4 and suppose that previous forecast in
1982 ₱8.00 1979 was 8.50, indicate the moving forecast until 1987 if actual value in 1979 was 6
1983 ₱14.00
1984 ₱18.00
1985 ₱25.50
1986 ₱20

A.
(1(18.00)+2(25.50)+3(20.00) 18+50+60 128
F= = = = 21.33333
6 6 6

B.
Year Value of $1 in ₱ 2 Year
1980 ₱7.50
1981 ₱7.50
1982 ₱8.00 (7.50+7.50) / 2 7.5
1983 ₱14.00 (7.50+8) / 2 7.75
1984 ₱18.00 (8+14) / 2 11
1985 ₱25.50 (14+18) / 2 16
1986 ₱20 (18+25.50) / 2 21.75
Selga, Aldrin Jhon
3. Aling Pasing had the following sales in her small sari-sari store for the past 5 weeks.
₱2500, ₱3000, ₱2000, ₱3400, ₱2800. forecast her sale for the sixth week using 5 weeks moving weighted average.

Week Sales 5 Weeks


1 ₱2,500
2 ₱3,000
3 ₱2,000
4 ₱3,400
5 ₱2,800
6 (2500+3000+2000+3400+2800) / 5 2740
weighted average.

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