FEMA’s Natural Hazards Risk

Assessment Program
Translating Information into Action
Indonesia BNBP Brief, December 2023

Jesse Rozelle, NHRAP Program Manager

Casey Zuzak, NHRAP Senior Risk Analyst
Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Program
Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Program Overview

The NHRAP will provide a common understanding of hazard and consequence data to
reduce disaster suffering

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Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Program Goals

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Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Program Objectives

§ Provide transparent and accessible risk assessment

tools for a broad range of risk management
stakeholders.
§ Provide baseline risk assessment information
through FEMA’s National Risk Index and Hazus Loss
Library
§ Update tools with the latest established science
§ Integrate hazard risk information into decision
making
Potential Impacts

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Meet the NHRAP

Maureen Kelly Annie Sheehan

Geospatial Risk Geospatial Risk
Jesse Rozelle Analyst Casey Zuzak Analyst Sean McNabb
NHRAP Senior Risk Analyst Program Specialist
Program Manager

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NHRAP Scale and Application Focused Initiatives

Hazus
National Risk Index

National Level Community Level Structure Level

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National Risk Index (NRI) Owner: FIMA | Risk Management Directorate

§ Online mapping application that identifies

communities at risk to natural hazards
§ Reduces the cost of risk assessment allowing
community planners to prioritize action and
investments
§ Provides pre-calculated, top-down national baseline
risk assessment with free and comprehensive data
across the U.S.
§ Allows for easy and effective dialogue around all
hazards risk for a community by incorporating Social
Vulnerability and Community Resilience

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Hazus/OpenHazus Owner: FIMA | Risk Management Directorate

§ FEMA’s Hazus software provides authoritative data, tools,

methods, and guidance for risk assessment and
communication to the emergency management
community

§ Standardized tools and data for estimating risk from

earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, and hurricanes

§ Bottom-up approach for Risk Assessment and ability to

analyze hazard risk and impacts at the structure-level

§ Provides the ability to develop multiple mitigation

scenarios to evaluate potential mitigation strategies and Potential Impacts
actions.

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USACE National Structure Inventory (NSI)

§ The NSI is a nationwide building dataset developed from building footprints with
parcel attribution – 2022 Attribute List

§ Expected to be publicly released with no use restrictions

§ The USACE currently has a team dedicated to managing, hosting, and continually
improving this dataset

§ The USACE plans to host NSI via web services

§ Incorporates FEMA ORR’s USA Structures, a nationwide footprint dataset derived by

Oak Ridge National Lab and other footprint sources

§ Parcel information derived from nationwide Lightbox parcels obtained from HIFLD

§ Additional multi-hazard attribution planned for development in conjunction with FEMA

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FEMA National Risk Index
Discover the landscape of natural hazard risk
National Risk Index

§ Began as a strategy for reducing cost and

eliminating inconsistent risk assessments in
planning
§ Identifies areas that offer high return on
mitigation investment
§ Reduces the cost of risk assessment
allowing community planners to prioritize
action
§ Provides pre-calculated, top- down national
baseline risk assessment

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National Risk Index

§ A free, consistent, and comprehensive

nation-wide risk assessment that is multi-
hazard and inclusive of social vulnerability
and community resilience did not exist.
§ Successful FEMA, state and local program
implementation can be enhanced
with credible risk assessment information.
§ Provides a mechanism by which social equity
and future conditions can be explored
§ Allows for easy and effective dialogue around
all hazards risk for a community.

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National Risk Index Timeline

FEMA Region 8 Refined risk Data updated to

developed the methodology based on v.1.18.0/1 and full
Vulnerability Index to additional review and National Risk Index
identify and prioritize updated backend application released
flood mitigation database in August 2021
projects

2008 2018-2019 2021

2016-2017 2020 2022-2023

FEMA Region 8 Phase 1 Release of Data updated to
developed the the National Risk v.1.19.0 and
Vulnerability Index to Index data v1.17.0 enhancements to
identify and prioritize released in November National Risk Index
flood mitigation 2020 application released in
projects March 2023

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National Risk Index Contributors

State
Government

Regional Federal
Government Partners

Local
Government

Private
Academia Industry Non-Profit

FEMA

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National Risk Index Contributors

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National Risk Index Hazard Selection

• Reviewed the 50 State Hazard

Mitigation Plans
• Initial list developed from rate of
occurrence in each state plan
• Natural hazards only
• Man-made hazards or hazards related to
anthropogenic activities not included

NOTES:
• Coastal Flood and Sea Level Risk Hazards were
combined
• Extreme Temperature is both Hot and Cold
• Severe Summer Weather is covered by Wind, Hail,
Tornado, and Lightning
• Winter Weather is both Snow and Ice

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National Risk Index - Hazards

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Next Release: Social Vulnerability and Community Resilience

Baseline Resilience Indicators for

Social Vulnerability Index: CDC 2020
Communities: BRIC 2020-2022
§ Developed by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) § Developed by the University of South Carolina’s HVRI

§ Grouped into 4 themes with 15 variables: § 6 resilience category scores, plus total score
¨ Socioeconomic Status (4 variables), Household ¨ Social, Economic, Community capital, Institutional,
Composition (4 variables), Race/Ethnicity/Language (2 Infrastructural, Environmental
variables), and Household Transportation (5 variables)
§ Comparative indicators at the county level
§ Comparative index at the county or Census tract
levels § Indicators analyze the relationship between
resilience, vulnerability, and the relative impact of
§ Ranks each tract by each factor and groups into 4 disasters on rural and urban places
these and an overall ranking.

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Why Social Vulnerability and Community Resilience
Social Vulnerability
§ Separate à Each
A consequence enhancing risk
component and community risk requires their own index.
factor that represents the
susceptibility of social groups to the § Linked à They work well
adverse impacts of natural hazards. together, are two parts of
a greater whole.
§ Overlap à In cases, but
A consequence reduction risk their differences matter
component and community risk factor more than their
that represents the ability of a
community to prepare for anticipated similarities.
natural hazards, adapt to changing
conditions, and withstand and recover
rapidly from disruptions.
Community Resilience

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Determining Risk

= Expected Annual Loss x 𝑓 Social Vulnerability

Community Resilience

§ Risk is still defined as the potential for negative impacts as a result of

a natural hazard
§ Expected Annual Loss (EAL) is calculated separately for each hazard,
then summed to generate a composite score for all 18 natural
hazards
§ EAL is multiplied by a Community Risk Factor which is
calculated as a function of the Social Vulnerability and
Community Resilience of the impacted community

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Calculating Risk

Risk = Expected Annual Loss x 𝑓 Social Vulnerability

Community Resilience
where Expected Annual Loss =
Annualized Exposure Historic Loss Ratio
Frequency

Building Value Percentage of

Rate of
X X
•
occurrence • Population building/population/
• Agriculture agriculture losses

How likely is How many people & how What percent of property/people
hazard to occur? much property are have historically been lost from a
potentially at risk? hazard in a given community?

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National Risk Index Scores
EAL Rating
Risk Rating County Census Tract

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National Risk Index Placemat

26
 Stakeholder Use

Enhance hazard Inform long-term

mitigation plans and community recovery
help prioritize
resources

Improve Risk
Inform the
Educate new Assessment insurance
homeowners and § Multiple states, including, New York, Virginia,
and Incentivize and mortgage
renters
Mitigation industry Florida, and Pennsylvania, want to use the NRI for
local planning efforts to increase community
Investment
resilience
§ Online real estate tools are exploring incorporating
Encourage
community-level risk
Develop codes NRI data into their interfaces to increase risk
communication and and standards awareness to potential home buyers and renters
engagement
§ Support continued baseline hazard risk
assessments for both public and private planning
and awareness campaigns
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Version 1.19.0 Release Enhancements

§ Update to census tract geographies to reflected 2020 Census modifications, enhancements to

land cover land use data, and updated building and population equivalence values
§ Generation of Expected Annual Loss data for limited number of natural hazards based on data
availability for the US Territories.
§ Inclusion of precalculated Expected Annual Loss Rates within schema and data downloads
§ Hazard specific methodology updates for Coastal Flooding, Drought, Earthquake, Hurricane,
Landslide, Tornado, Tsunami
§ Conversion of Composite and Individual Hazard Risk Scores to Percentiles
§ Better linkage to Map and Data Resources pages and create of a Data Archive page

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Key Takeaways

§ Cannot compare V.1.18.1 scores to V.1.19.0 scores because basis changed –

Compare Expected Annual Losses
§ Update to 2020 Census-based valuations significantly increased exposure to natural
hazards from V.1.18.1
§ Exposure is increasing in areas of high consequence hazard risk: earthquake, wildfire,
tornado, coastal flooding & hurricane
§ Earthquake and Hurricane hazards are the major contributors to national risk
§ Dasymetric enhancement has highly-localized impacts (both increases and decreases)
on susceptible zone hazard profiles

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Territory Expansion
Available Data PR VI GU AS MP
§ Expanding NRI to territories: Puerto Rico (PR), US Virgin Expected Annual Loss Data ü ü ü ü ü
Islands (VI), Guam (GU), American Samoa (AS), and - Avalanche
- Coastal Flooding ü ü ü ü ü
Northern Mariana Islands (MP) - Cold Wave ü ü ü ü ü
- Drought ü ü
¨ Hazard data unavailable for some hazards - Earthquake ü ü P P P
- Hail ü ü
¨ Social vulnerability data only available for PR - Heat Wave ü ü ü ü ü
¨ Community resilience data unavailable for all territories - Hurricane ü ü ü
- Ice Storm
¨ Risk cannot be calculated for territories - Landslide ü
- Lightning
- Riverine Flooding ü ü ü ü ü
- Strong Wind ü ü
- Tornado
Impact of changes: EAL profiles are now available for - Tsunami
ü
ü
ü
ü ü ü
Territories and national Social Vulnerability rank available - Volcanic Activity ü ü ü ü
- Wildfire
for PR - Winter Weather ü ü ü ü ü
Social Vulnerability Data ü
Community Resilience Data

Not Applicable Future Enhancements

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Data unavailable/more research needed ü - Done
Website Update

Adding two new pages to provide resources

for users
§ National Risk Index – Best Practices
¨ Suite of use cases on how NRI is being
utilized for decision making
¨ Could inspire others to use the NRI in
similar ways
§ National Risk Index – Hazard Resources
¨ Resource to help guide users to additional
information on each hazard in the NRI

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Creating a Climate Informed National Risk Index
Projecting the future of natural hazard risk
Integrating Climate Change into the National Risk Index

November 2021 March 2023 August 2023

FEMA Releases NRI FEMA Releases NRI Review Data Development
data version 1.18.1 data version 1.19.0 with Stakeholders

June-Sept. 2022 March-July 2023 Sept. 2023

Literature Review of NRI + Climate Complete Prototyping
Climate Change Risk Change Data and Evaluate Next
Data and Methodologies Development Steps

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Highest Priority Hazards for Climate Change Projections

High Expected
High Relevance
Annual Loss

This is just the

starting point

Federal Emergency Management Agency

Methodology (Heatwave, Drought, Wildfire)

1. Derive precise location-specific adjustments from

CMIP-based source
¨ LOCA/LOCA2 and CLIMRR
2. Calibrate adjustments to align national impact
projections to reputable aggregate climate
changes projections from literature
¨ Hazard-specific and consequence-specific
calibration
3. Apply climate change adjustments at EAL level

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Methodology (Coastal Flooding and Hurricane Wind)

Use NOAA projected sea level rise data with the same approach as base NRI to
develop climate change-adjusted EALs.

Apply national adjustment factor based on literature review and data provided by
Applied Research Associates.

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Calculating Adjusted Expected Annual Loss

A similar framework to that of the Base NRI was utilized in order to calculate the Adjusted
Expected Annual Loss, now including a Climate Informed Adjustment Factor calculated using LOCA
Variables

Annualized Climate Informed

Exposure Historic Loss Ratio
Frequency Adjustment Factor

Estimated
• Building Value Percentage of
Rate of
occurrence X •
•
Population
Agriculture
X building/population/
agriculture losses
X Percent
Increase in
Losses

How likely is hazard How many people & how What percent of property/people have How much is the hazard
to occur? much property are potentially historically been lost from a hazard in anticipated to change as
at risk? a given community? a result of Climate
Change?

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Finding New EAL and Risk Ratings
Base National Risk Index
In order to show how hazard risk changes as a 1500
result of climate change, Adjusted EAL and Risk
1000
Values are sorted into Base NRI Rating Bins
using Fixed Thresholds. 500

Baseline NRI Climate Informed Climate Informed

1500

1000
PLE
EXAM 500

0
Very Low Relatively Relatively Relatively Very High
Low Moderate High

Fixed Bin
Thresholds
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Projecting Impacts and Describing Uncertainty

Very High RCP 8.5

Relative Impacts

RCP 4.5

LOCA/LOCA 2
Very Low ClimRR
Today Mid Century Late Century

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Access the National Risk Index
§ Release Date: March 23, 2023
§ Full Application - https://www.fema.gov/nri

Thank You
Casey Zuzak
[email protected]

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Hazus
Risk Assessment | Risk Reduction
§ FEMA’s Hazus Program provides authoritative data, tools, Our mission is to provide a nationally applicable,
methods, and guidance for risk assessment and standardized methodology for estimating damages
communication to the emergency management community and economic loss from natural hazards.

§ Provide transparent and accessible risk assessment tools for

abroad range of risk management stakeholders

§ Update Hazus tools with the latest established science

§ Standardized tools and data for estimating risk from Our vision is bringing together experts to drive
earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, and hurricanes natural hazard resilience in every community.
OpenHazus – Advancing Risk
Assessment Science Together

The Hazus Program brings together

experts from a range of disciplines to
create effective risk analysis tools.

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Hazus Program and Software – Current State

Hazus produces a variety of actionable risk information, including:

Physical damage to residential and Estimated social impacts including displaced

commercial buildings, schools, critical households, shelter requirements, and exposure
facilities, and infrastructure to floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis

Economic impacts such as business Cost effectiveness of common mitigation

interruptions and reconstruction costs strategies, such as elevating structures in a
floodplain

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Key Partnerships

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Hazus and Risk Assessment

Natural hazard risk assessment requires

the combination of inventory information,
hazard data, and damage functions in
order to characterize potential impacts
from natural disasters.

Estimated Impacts
Federal Emergency Management Agency 46
Hazus

§ FEMA’s Hazus software provides authoritative data,

tools, methods, and guidance for risk assessment and
communication to the emergency management
community
§ Standardized tools and data for estimating risk from
earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, and hurricanes
§ Bottom-up approach for Risk Assessment and ability to
analyze hazard risk and impacts at the structure-level
§ Provides the ability to develop multiple mitigation
scenarios to evaluate potential mitigation strategies Potential Impacts
and actions.

Federal Emergency Management Agency 47

Estimating Potential Impacts With Hazus

§ Hazus estimates several types of risk information. The types of information available
for each hazard vary according to the data and methods from the scientific community.

Economic Loss Debris Generation

Building Damages Infrastructure Damages

Shelter/Evacuation Needs Casualties

Essential Facility Damages Agricultural Loss

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Hazus Earthquake Model

The Hazus Earthquake Model was initially

developed in 1997 and continues to evolve
through Hazus Program partnerships with
seismic experts and engineers.

Partnerships | USGS · NHERP · EERI · CalOES

Economic Loss, Building Damages, Shelter/Evacuation Needs, Essential

Facility Damages, Debris Generation, Infrastructure Damages, Casualties

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 Hazus Earthquake Data

§ The U.S. Geological Survey produces earthquake hazard data

called ShakeMaps for real events and scenarios.
¨ Gridded measurements of earthquake shaking expressed as a
percent
of gravitational acceleration (PGA)
¨ Produced using underground seismometer networks managed by
the USGS
¨ Downloaded or fetched by Hazus from the USGS website

ShakeMap data should be accompanied by data that measure the spatial probability of
liquefaction and landslides induced by earthquake shaking. Hazus provides nationwide
estimated data from USGS, but local geological surveys often have better information.
U.S. Geological Survey

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Federal Emergency Management Agency
Hazus Flood Model

The Hazus Flood Model was initially

developed in 2003 and continues to evolve
through Hazus Program partnerships with
hydrology experts and engineers.

Partnerships | USGS · USACE · NOAA · NFIP

Economic Loss, Building Damages, Shelter/Evacuation Needs, Essential

Facility Damages, Debris Generation, Infrastructure Damages, Agricultural Loss

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Hazus Flood Data

§ FEMA’s Risk Mapping, Analysis and Planning (Risk MAP)

produces flood hazard data called depth grids for
probabilistic flood scenarios in communities selected for
floodplain mapping projects.
¨ Gridded measurements of flood depth expressed as a depth of
water above ground for flood events associated with a specific
return interval
¨ Produced using hydrologic and hydraulic engineering
models and digital elevation data FEMA’s national flood hazard database contains depth
¨ Downloaded from the FEMA Map Service Center grids for only a small fraction of U.S. communities.
Additional sources of flood hazard data include the USGS,
USACE, NOAA, and local floodplain management
agencies.

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Hazus Hurricane Model

The Hazus Hurricane Model was initially

developed in 2004 and continues to evolve
through Hazus Program partnerships with
wind and coastal surge experts and
engineers.

Partnerships | NOAA · DHS Coastal

Resilience Center· ADCIRC

Economic Loss, Building Damages, Shelter/Evacuation

Needs, Essential Facility Damages, Debris Generation

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Hazus Hurricane Data

§ The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

(NOAA) National Hurricane Center produces hurricane
wind hazard data for landfalling U.S. hurricanes.
¨ Point measurements of peak wind gusts expressed in miles
per hour for every 6-hour incoming hurricane advisory
¨ Downloaded or fetched by Hazus from NOAA’s website
¨ The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Shane Hubbard, University of Wisconsin-Madison

produces post-landfall wind data for some storms using field

instrumentation and terrain data Hazus can combine wind data with storm surge depth data
to estimate more complete hurricane impacts. ADCIRC
(ADvanced CIRCulation Model) is a storm surge model
¨ Data for wind events associated with a specific return interval jointly developed by university researchers and supported
are produced by Hazus using a 100,000-year stochastic model by USACE. The Hazus Program is working with the ADCIRC
team to incorporate ADCIRC forecast data into the Hazus
Hurricane model for approaching storms.

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Hazus Hurricane Wind Modeling – NIST Observed Wind Field Data

§ Currently used by FEMA Regional offices, State EOC’s, and others to

expedite response and recovery resources

§ Used frequently to expedite Presidential Disaster Declaration funds

immediately after an event

§ Shared publicly through FEMA’s Geospatial Resource Center

§ Only observed wind field data source currently available to FEMA rapidly
post event

§ FEMA/NIST mission assignment fills current operational capability gap

§ Plans to further integrate into FEMA program delivery through

OpenHazus
Hurricane Ida peak wind gusts using NIST derived wind field

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Hazus Tsunami Model

The Hazus Tsunami Model was initially

developed in 2017 and continues to evolve
through Hazus Program partnerships with
seismic and tsunami experts and engineers.

Partnerships | NOAA · PMEL · NTHMP

Economic Loss, Building Damages, Shelter/Evacuation

Needs, Casualties

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Hazus Tsunami Data

§ The Hazus Tsunami Model was initially developed in 2017 and continues to evolve
through Hazus Program partnerships with seismic and tsunami experts and engineers.
¨ Gridded measurements of tsunami wave depth (feet above ground) and momentum flux
(wave height*wave velocity2) for near-source and distant-source tsunamis and for tsunamis
associated with a specific return interval
¨ Produced using field instrumentation, digital
elevation data, and computer simulations
¨ Downloaded from NOAA’s website

NOAA simulation of 2006 Kuril Island, Russia tsunami

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Hazus Inventory Data

§ The Hazus Program provides a nationwide

database of estimated building
characteristics, summarized at the census
tract and block levels
§ This facilitate baseline risk assessment in
communities without building-level
inventory data.
§ Building-level data can be brought into
Hazus for detailed local risk assessment

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Hazus General Building Stock

§ Risk modeling requires information about

the vulnerability of assets exposed to
natural hazards.
§ Vulnerability attributes drive disaster
impacts and potential mitigation
strategies.
§ Developed from US Census, DHS HIFLD,
RS Means, Land Cover/Land Use, Building
Footprints, and a variety of other data
sources.

Federal Emergency Management Agency 59

Damage Functions

§ A damage function is the mathematical relationship between hazard intensity and the
amount of damage sustained by a building.
¨ Vary according to the physical characteristics
of a building
¨ Developed for specific building types through
extensive research and engineering expertise
¨ Should be refined with damage data
from new disasters

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Fragility Functions

§ Fragility functions provide more detailed information about the relationship between
hazard intensity and building damage.
¨ Used by the Hazus Earthquake Model
¨ Show the probability of damage at a given
hazard intensity

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Open Source Hazus Tools

§ Legacy Hazus Software is dependent to

Esri’s ArcGIS Desktop platform
§ We’ve developed a collection of open
source tools to better serve the risk
assessment community
§ Open source tools not only provide faster
scientific integration
§ Simpler to use, transparent, and Legacy Hazus Interface New Open Source Flood Tool

customizable.

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Hazus Resources

Download Hazus YouTube Videos User & Technical Manuals

fema.gov/hazus bit.ly/HazusYouTube bit.ly/HazusManuals

Hazus Loss Library Hazus Support Risk Assessment Guidance

hazards.fema.gov/hll [email protected] bit.ly/HazusNews

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Hazus Loss Library
Hazus Loss Library
§ Centralized repository for accessing best
available and archived Hazus work
§ Goal – make risk assessment information
available for all users
§ Provide historical event, planning scenario,
and probabilistic hazard risk assessment
data to users without having to run Hazus!

65
FEMA Hazus and USGS Flood Inundation Mapping

§ We encourage users to reference authoritative external sources to generate accurate flood risk results in Hazus

§ The USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program provides high-resolution flood inundation depth grids for
hundreds of stream reaches across the U.S. through its Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) platform

§ FEMA and the USGS are collaborating to generate flood losses and risk assessment for all available locations
within the FIM network

https://fim.wim.usgs.gov/fim/

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Real-time Application – Hazard, Kentucky

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OpenHazus
Redefining Risk Assessment
 OpenHazus – Open Science Based Risk Assessment Tool

Transition from a desktop software to a web-based platform to-be-hosted in a FEMA

approved cloud environment
PEN
Independence from proprietary software, applications, and tools

Lower the barrier-of-entry to increase access Modularization of existing Hazus capabilities to streamline development and
allow users to customize their experience
to quality risk assessment information.
Enhanced data sharing opportunities of baseline FEMA datasets, third-party
Promote open science and open source with authoritative hazard, inventory, and risk data, and custom user data
a risk assessment platform that is truly free
to all users and for all use cases.
Increase automation for routine or bundled analyses and workflows

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Flood Example – Loss Modeling with OpenHazus

Downloadable
National
Results
Structure Data

Geospatial Web
Services
Building level damages
PEN Economic impacts
Loss of functionality Results
Hazard Data Debris Generation
Average annualized loss Dashboard
Indirect economic impacts

Customizable
Reports
Damage &
Fragility
Functions
Hazus Loss
Library

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OpenHazus – Opportunities for Expansion

Maintaining and Expanding Supported Hazard Loss Estimation:

§ Current Hazard Loss Modeling Capabilities – Earthquake, Coastal Flooding, Riverine
Flooding, Tsunami, and Hurricane Wind
§ Potential Future Hazard Loss Modeling Capabilities – Tornado*, Wildfire*, and Drought*
*Dependent upon solving existing hazard specific
damage estimation science gaps and available funding.

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Questions?
Jesse Rozelle
The Hazus
Program Team
Manager
Hazus
• Hazus | FEMA.gov
FEMA
NaturalNatural
HazardsHazards
Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment
Program/Hazus
Program
• GetHazus
Risk Assessment Guidance
Hurricane Wind Results Dashboard
FEMA Resilience|RAPID
[email protected] bit.ly/HazusNews
(arcgis.com)
[email protected]

Casey Zuzak National Risk Index

Senior Risk Analyst • National Risk Index for Natural Hazards |
Find Us on GitHub
FEMA.gov
Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Program github.com/nhrap-hazus
FEMA Resilience|RAPID • Community Disaster Resilience Zones |
[email protected] FEMA.gov
[email protected]
• Community Disaster Resilience Zones
(arcgis.com)

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