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Revenue Modelling

1. The document analyzes V-Mart's financial performance from FY2013-14 to FY2017-18. It shows that V-Mart generates 94% of its revenues from fashion products and 6% from FMCG products. 2. V-Mart has been expanding to Tier 2, 3, and 4 cities, with 86% of revenues in FY2017-18 coming from non-metro locations. 3. Financial projections estimate V-Mart's revenue will grow at 20% annually from FY2018-19 to FY2020-21, with operating costs remaining stable as a percentage of revenues.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
47 views35 pages

Revenue Modelling

1. The document analyzes V-Mart's financial performance from FY2013-14 to FY2017-18. It shows that V-Mart generates 94% of its revenues from fashion products and 6% from FMCG products. 2. V-Mart has been expanding to Tier 2, 3, and 4 cities, with 86% of revenues in FY2017-18 coming from non-metro locations. 3. Financial projections estimate V-Mart's revenue will grow at 20% annually from FY2018-19 to FY2020-21, with operating costs remaining stable as a percentage of revenues.

Uploaded by

dormammu 12
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Fashion (apparel, nonapparel

and home mart):


94 per cent of revenues,
2017-18

Kirana bazaar (FMCG


and packaged staple
food): 6 per cent of
revenues, 2017-18

Tier-II, III and IV centres.


At the end of FY2017-18,
V-Mart had 22 stores in
metros and Tier-I cities, 44
stores in Tier-II cities and
105 stores in Tier-III and
IV cities across 14 states
and Union Territories. The
proportion of revenues
derived by the company
from non-metro locations
was a sizable 86 per cent
in 2017-18.

17-18 16-17
Metro and Tier-I 22 19
Tier II 44 40
Tier III 87 79
Tier IV 18 3

Population In metros and Tier I 33%


Tir II, III, IV 67%

Developed nations- Oganised retail penetration 80%

Retail annuagrowth rate 12%


It adds that India is at the cusp of the FMCG S-curve, and there is significant room to grow
A nominal GDP growth rate of roughly 12 percent over the next three years could signal an

Analyze promoers sharehlding pattern


12.73
41.39
[email protected] 54.12
ficant room to grow over the next five to ten years.
ears could signal an FMCG growth rate ranging from a low of 9 percent to a high of 17 percent, depen
gh of 17 percent, depending on player action.
Assumptions Rationale FY18-19E FY19-20E
YOY revenue Growth Based on Historical Growth 20% 20%
Inventory cost/Sales Based on Historical Trend 69% 69%
Employee benefit expenses/Sales Based on Historical Trend 9% 9%
Other Expenses/Sales Based on Historical Average 13.25% 13.25%

Ending PPE/ Sales Historical average 12% 12%


Depreciation/Beginning PPE Recent Trend 20% 20%

Effective Tax Rate Explicit 33% 33%


FY20-21E
20%
69%
9%
13.25%

12%
20%

33%
Cost Model FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16
Cost of Inventory (Trade Purchase + Production) 404.0691576 507.9379978 571.2045
Inventory cost/Sales 70.19% 70.31% 70.48%
Employee benefit expenses 38.3373777 48.936384 62.2542
Employee benefit expenses/Sales 6.66% 6.77% 7.68%
Other expenses 78.7704551 99.5012185 113.962
Other Expenses/Sales 13.68% 13.77% 14.06%
Average Other Expenses/ Sales 13.63%
Effective Tax Rate 33.49% 32.47% 34.69%
FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19E FY19-20E FY20-21E
702.7687 830.2684 1014.9812922 1217.40607884 1460.31582281
69.87% 67.69%
78.2795 98.3905 132.3888642 158.79209724 190.475976888
7.78% 8.02%
135.9185 160.9273 194.9 233.8 280.4
13.51% 13.12%

34.30% 30.91%
Revenue Model FY13-14 FY14-15
Revenue from operations 574.959404 720.502224
Year on Year Revenue Growth 25.31%
Average of YOY revenue Growth 20.86%
CAGR of Revenue 20.75%
FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19E FY19-20E FY20-21E
809.2541 1001.7255 1222.3719 1466.85 1760.22 2112.26
12.32% 23.78% 22.03%
STATEMENT OF PROFIT AND LOSS (Rs in Crores) Rationale FY13-14

Revenue from operations 574.96


Other income Constant 0.71
Total Revenues 575.67
Cost of Inventory (Trade Purchase + Production) 404.07
Gross Profit 171.60
Employee benefit expenses 38.34
Other expenses 78.77
Earnings before interest, tax, depriciation and amortization 54.50
Depreciation and amortisation expense 10.89
Earnings Before Interest and taxes (EBIT) 43.60
Finance costs No debt . "Zero" 5.78
Profit before Taxes 0 37.82
Tax expense 12.67
Profit after Taxes 25.16
FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19E

720.50 809.25 1,001.73 1,222.37 1466.85


1.90 1.17 4.14 4.14 4.14
722.40 810.43 1,005.87 1,226.51 1,470.99
507.94 571.20 702.77 830.27 1014.98
214.46 239.22 303.10 396.24 456.01
48.94 62.25 78.28 98.39 132.39
99.50 113.96 135.92 160.93 194.91
66.02 63.00 88.90 136.93 128.71
4.57 19.01 18.55 22.93 28.95
61.46 43.99 70.35 114.00 99.76
6.13 1.67 3.52 1.53 0.00
55.33 42.32 66.82 112.47 99.76
17.96 14.68 22.92 34.76 32.92
37.37 27.64 43.90 77.70 66.84
FY19-20E FY20-21E

1760.22 2112.26
4.14 4.14
1,764.36 2,116.40
1217.41 1460.32
546.95 656.08
158.79 190.48
233.78 280.42
154.38 185.18
35.20 42.25
119.18 142.94
0.00 0.00
119.18 142.94
39.33 47.17
79.85 95.77
Capex Schedule Rationale FY13-14 FY14-15
Revenue from operations 574.959404 720.502224
Property, plant and equipment 69.9622725 98.0653042
Depreciation and amortisation expense 10.8943695 4.5653727
Purchase of property plant and equipment including intangible assetscapital work 0 -33.5460345

BASE
Beginning PPE 69.9622725
Add: Capex (PLUG Figure) 32.6684044
Less: Deprecation 4.5653727
Ending PPE 69.9622725 98.0653042

Ending PPE/ Sales 12.17% 13.61%


Depreciation/Beginning PPE 6.53%
FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19E FY19-20E FY20-21E
809.2541 1001.7255 1222.3719 1466.84628 1760.215536 2112.258643
94.0727 117.3049 144.7472
19.0144 18.5532 22.9312
-31.3128484 -41.5533 -47.9106

98.0653042 94.0727 117.3049 144.7472 176.0215536 211.2258643


15.0217958 41.7854 50.3735 60.2237936 70.40862144 84.49034573
19.0144 18.5532 22.9312 28.94944 35.20431072 42.24517286
94.0727 117.3049 144.7472 176.0215536 211.2258643 253.4710372

11.62% 11.71% 11.84%


19.39% 19.72% 19.55%
BALANCE SHEET (Rs in crores) FY13-14
ASSETS
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment 69.96
Capital work in progress 1.01
Financial assets
Investments 15.00
Loans 12.79
Deferred tax assets (net) 2.17
Other non current assets 0.07
Total Non Current Assets 101.00
Current assets
Inventories 167.70
Financial assets
Investments 19.24
Cash and cash equivalents 2.32
Loans, Financial and other current assets 3.35
Total Current Assets 192.61
TOTAL- ASSETS 293.60
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Equity share capital 17.96
Other equity 152.20
Total - Equity Share Capittal 170.16
Liabilities
Non-current liabilities
Financial liabilities (including borrowing, provisions) 3.26
Current liabilities
Financial liabilities
Borrowings 43.34
Trade payables 64.71
Other financial liabilities 0.00
Other current liabilities including current tax liabilities 7.54
Provisions 4.59
PLUG
Total-Current Liabilities 120.19
Total - Current and non current liabilities 123.45
TOTAL- Equity and Liability 293.60
Check Tally
FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19E FY19-20E FY20-21E

98.07 94.07 117.30 144.75


0.72 2.21 1.16 3.51

5.53 15.83 5.88 6.39


15.73 5.34 6.17 7.20
0.64 7.44 7.86 9.94
0.07 10.71 10.28 9.48
120.76 135.60 148.66 181.27

183.20 204.43 269.18 307.11

16.27 20.23 65.99 27.69


3.36 4.28 2.92 19.59
5.31 8.81 3.97 14.25
208.14 237.75 342.05 368.64
328.90 373.36 490.71 549.90

18.02 18.07 18.07 18.10


186.92 207.71 251.97 329.34
204.94 225.78 270.04 347.44

7.96 5.44 7.20 8.40

28.63 26.91 34.87 0.00


75.18 95.65 159.90 166.78
0.00 10.05 8.56 15.29
6.95 9.37 9.97 11.70
5.30 0.16 0.17 0.30
(0.06)
116.00 142.14 213.47 194.07
123.96 147.58 220.67 202.46
328.90 373.36 490.71 549.90
Tally Tally Tally Tally
CASH FLOW STATEMENT (Rs in crores) FY13-14 FY14-15
A. Cash flows from operating activities
Net profit before tax 55.33
Adjustment for:
Depreciation and amortisation expense 4.57
(Profit)/loss/write off on sale of fixed assets and Investments (1.66)
Employee compensation expense under ESOP 0.03
Balances written off 13.47
Dividend income 0.00
Interest income (0.09)
Liabilities written back (0.50)
Finance costs 3.69
Other Items 4.52
Operating profit before working capital changes 79.35
Changes in working capital :
Movement in other financial assets 0.00
Movement in other current assets 0.00
Movement in inventories (30.12)
Movement in trade payables 10.97
Movement in other financial liabilities (4.80)
Movement in other liabilities 1.28
Movement in provisions 0.00
Cash generated from operations 56.68
Taxes paid (16.74)
Net cash flow from operating activities 39.94
B. Cash flows used in investing activities
Purchase of property plant and equipment including intangible assetscapit (33.55)
Purchase of investments (21.80)
Proceeds from sale of investments 36.28
Proceeds from sale of fixed assets 0.00
Interest received 0.04
Redemption of/(investment in) bank deposits (having original maturity of (0.13)
Earmarked bank deposits (refer note 11) 0.00
Insurance Claim received 0.00
Movement in pledged fixed deposits 0.11
Net cash flow used in investing activities (19.05)
C. Cash flows from/(used in) financing activities
Proceeds from issue of equity shares including securities premium 0.85
Repayment of long term borrowings (0.24)
(Repayments of)/proceeds from short term borrowings (net) (14.71)
Equity dividend paid (1.80)
Corporate dividend tax paid (0.31)
Finance charges paid (3.69)
Proceeds from long term borrowings 0.00
Net cash (used in)/generated from financing activities (19.90)
D. Net increase in cash and cash equivalents (A+B+C) 0.99
E. Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the year 1.64
F. Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year (D+E) 2.63
FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19E FY19-20E FY20-21E

42.31 66.82 112.47

19.01 17.89 22.18


(0.36) (0.70) (0.65)
0.11 0.39 1.19
15.85 0.19 0.55
(0.09) (0.57) (0.47)
(0.18) (0.14) 0.99
(0.37) (1.30) (0.26)
3.03 3.52 1.53
2.37 (0.08) (0.51)
81.66 86.04 137.02

0.00 (1.75) (1.31)


0.00 5.24 (9.46)
(36.93) (64.75) (37.94)
20.84 64.26 6.88
(4.17) 1.30 1.82
4.80 1.83 4.32
0.00 0.80 1.11
66.20 92.97 102.45
(14.90) (24.25) (38.11)
51.30 68.72 64.34

(31.31) (41.55) (47.91)


(33.95) (188.11) (34.03)
23.85 154.38 73.56
0.02 0.04 0.14
0.15 0.23 (1.00)
(0.01) 0.18 0.00
0.00 - (4.63)
0.36 0.00 0.00
(1.53) 2.06 (1.18)
(42.42) (72.77) (15.06)

0.77 0.02 0.95


(0.31) (0.05) (0.23)
(1.72) 7.96 (34.87)
(4.79) (0.18) (2.26)
(0.55) (0.46) (0.46)
(2.88) (3.23) (1.53)
0.00 0.83 -
(9.47) 4.88 (38.40)
(0.59) 0.82 10.87
2.63 2.04 2.86
2.04 2.86 13.74
STATEMENT OF PROFIT AND LOSS (Rs in Crores) FY13-14 FY14-15

Revenue from operations 99.88% 99.74%


Other income 0.12% 0.26%
Total Revenues 100.00% 100.00%
Cost of Inventory (Trade Purchase + Production) 70.19% 70.31%
Gross Profit 29.81% 29.69%
Employee benefit expenses 6.66% 6.77%
Other expenses 13.68% 13.77%
Earnings before interest, tax, depriciation and amortization 9.47% 9.14%
Depreciation and amortisation expense 1.89% 0.63%
Earnings Before Interest and taxes (EBIT) 7.57% 8.51%
Finance costs 1.00% 0.85%
Profit before Taxes 6.57% 7.66%
Tax expense 2.20% 2.49%
Profit after Taxes 4.37% 5.17%
FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19E FY19-20E FY20-21E

99.86% 99.59% 99.66% 99.72% 99.77% 99.80%


0.14% 0.41% 0.34% 0.28% 0.23% 0.20%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
70.48% 69.87% 67.69% 69.00% 69.00% 69.00%
29.52% 30.13% 32.31% 31.00% 31.00% 31.00%
7.68% 7.78% 8.02% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00%
14.06% 13.51% 13.12% 13.25% 13.25% 13.25%
7.77% 8.84% 11.16% 8.75% 8.75% 8.75%
2.35% 1.84% 1.87% 1.97% 2.00% 2.00%
5.43% 6.99% 9.29% 6.78% 6.75% 6.75%
0.21% 0.35% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5.22% 6.64% 9.17% 6.78% 6.75% 6.75%
1.81% 2.28% 2.83% 2.24% 2.23% 2.23%
3.41% 4.36% 6.34% 4.54% 4.53% 4.53%
BALANCE SHEET (Rs in crores) FY13-14
ASSETS
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment 23.83%
Capital work in progress 0.34%
Financial assets
Investments 5.11%
Loans 4.36%
Deferred tax assets (net) 0.74%
Other non current assets 0.02%
Total Non Current Assets 34.40%
Current assets
Inventories 57.12%
Financial assets
Investments 6.55%
Cash and cash equivalents 0.79%
Loans, Financial and other current assets 1.14%
Total Current Assets 65.60%
TOTAL- ASSETS 100.00%
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Equity share capital 6.12%
Other equity 51.84%
Total - Equity Share Capittal 57.95%
Liabilities
Non-current liabilities
Financial liabilities (including borrowing, provisions) 1.11%
Current liabilities
Financial liabilities
Borrowings 14.76%
Trade payables 22.04%
Other financial liabilities 0.00%
Other current liabilities including current tax liabilities 2.57%
Provisions 1.56%
PLUG 0.00%
Total - Current and non current liabilities 42.05%
TOTAL- Equity and Liability 100.00%
Check Tally
FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19E FY19-20E FY20-21E

29.82% 25.20% 23.91% 26.32%


0.22% 0.59% 0.24% 0.64%

1.68% 4.24% 1.20% 1.16%


4.78% 1.43% 1.26% 1.31%
0.20% 1.99% 1.60% 1.81%
0.02% 2.87% 2.10% 1.72%
36.72% 36.32% 30.29% 32.96%

55.70% 54.75% 54.85% 55.85%

4.95% 5.42% 13.45% 5.04%


1.02% 1.15% 0.60% 3.56%
1.62% 2.36% 0.81% 2.59%
63.28% 63.68% 69.71% 67.04%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

5.48% 4.84% 3.68% 3.29%


56.83% 55.63% 51.35% 59.89%
62.31% 60.47% 55.03% 63.18%

2.42% 1.46% 1.47% 1.53%

8.70% 7.21% 7.11% 0.00%


22.86% 25.62% 32.59% 30.33%
0.00% 2.69% 1.74% 2.78%
2.11% 2.51% 2.03% 2.13%
1.61% 0.04% 0.03% 0.05%
-0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
37.69% 39.53% 44.97% 36.82%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Tally Tally Tally Tally
BALANCE SHEET (Rs in crores) FY13-14
ASSETS
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment 1.00
Capital work in progress 1.00
Financial assets
Investments 1.00
Loans 1.00
Deferred tax assets (net) 1.00
Other non current assets 1.00
Total Non Current Assets 1.00
Current assets
Inventories 1.00
Financial assets
Investments 1.00
Cash and cash equivalents 1.00
Loans, Financial and other current assets 1.00
Total Current Assets 1.00
TOTAL- ASSETS 1.00
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Equity share capital 1.00
Other equity 1.00
Total - Equity Share Capittal 1.00
Liabilities
Non-current liabilities
Financial liabilities (including borrowing, provisions) 1.00
Current liabilities
Financial liabilities
Borrowings 1.00
Trade payables 1.00
Other financial liabilities
Other current liabilities including current tax liabilities 1.00
Provisions 1.00
PLUG
Total - Current and non current liabilities 1.00
TOTAL- Equity and Liability 1.00
Check Tally
FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19E FY19-20E FY20-21E

1.40 1.34 1.68 2.07


0.72 2.19 1.15 3.48

0.37 1.06 0.39 0.43


1.23 0.42 0.48 0.56
0.30 3.43 3.63 4.59
0.91 149.44 143.46 132.27
1.20 1.34 1.47 1.79

1.09 1.22 1.61 1.83

0.85 1.05 3.43 1.44


1.44 1.84 1.26 8.43
1.59 2.63 1.18 4.25
1.08 1.23 1.78 1.91
1.12 1.27 1.67 1.87

1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01


1.23 1.36 1.66 2.16
1.20 1.33 1.59 2.04

2.44 1.67 2.21 2.57

0.66 0.62 0.80 0.00


1.16 1.48 2.47 2.58

0.92 1.24 1.32 1.55


1.15 0.03 0.04 0.06

1.00 1.20 1.79 1.64


1.12 1.27 1.67 1.87
Tally Tally Tally Tally
Ratio Analysis FY13-14 FY14-15
Profitablity Ratios
Gross Profit Margin 29.81% 29.69%
Operating Cash Profit Margin 9.47% 9.14%
Operating Profit Margin 7.57% 8.51%
Pre Tax margin 6.57% 7.66%
Net Profit margin 4.37% 5.17%
CFO/ Sales 5.53%
CFO/EBITDA 60.50%

Liquidity ratios
Current Ratio 1.60259339 1.79431054832294
Cash Ratios 1.93% 2.89%

Solvency Ratios
Debt and other liabilites(LT)/T 1.11% 2.42%

Turnover/Efficiency ratios
Inventory Turnover Ratio 2.8950568732685
Number of days in Inventory 126.076970497619
Total Purchases 523.44
Accounts Payable Turnover ratio 7.48346671369738
Number of Days in AP 48.7741863449358
Fixed Assets Turover Ratio 8.59856836940266
Total Assets Turover ratio 2.31484943784856
FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18

29.52% 30.13% 32.31%


7.77% 8.84% 11.16%
5.43% 6.99% 9.29%
5.22% 6.64% 9.17%
3.41% 4.36% 6.34%
6.33% 6.83% 5.25%
81.43% 77.30% 46.99%

1.67265273731525 1.6023568156053 1.89953840731458


3.01% 1.37% 10.09%

1.46% 1.47% 1.53%

2.94716469093697 2.96775693376683 2.88143817105178


123.847846414025 122.988508879237 126.67285512733
592.43 767.52 868.20
6.93602930327788 6.00679790021111 5.31524352671336
52.623768447389 60.7644881788302 68.6704189874994
8.43586778549457 9.5172468605945 9.36083320835819
2.30472780436964 2.31864291204137 2.34933744143699
FY18-19E FY19-20E FY20-21E
STATEMENT OF PROFIT AND LOSS (Rs in Crores) FY13-14 FY14-15

Revenue from operations 1.00 1.25


Other income 1.00 2.66
Total Revenues 1.00 1.25
Cost of Inventory (Trade Purchase + Production) 1.00 1.26
Gross Profit 1.00 1.25
Employee benefit expenses 1.00 1.28
Other expenses 1.00 1.26
Earnings before interest, tax, depriciation and amortization 1.00 1.21
Depreciation and amortisation expense 1.00 0.42
Earnings Before Interest and taxes (EBIT) 1.00 1.41
Finance costs 1.00 1.06
Profit before Taxes 1.00 1.46
Tax expense 1.00 1.42
Profit after Taxes 1.00 1.49
FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19E FY19-20E FY20-21E

1.41 1.74 2.13


1.64 5.80 5.80
1.41 1.75 2.13
1.41 1.74 2.05
1.39 1.77 2.31
1.62 2.04 2.57
1.45 1.73 2.04
1.16 1.63 2.51
1.75 1.70 2.10
1.01 1.61 2.61
0.29 0.61 0.26
1.12 1.77 2.97
1.16 1.81 2.74
1.10 1.75 3.09

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