Probability Tree Diagrams

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23 A box contains 6 red pencils and 8 blue pencils.

A pencil is chosen at random and not replaced.
A second pencil is then chosen at random.

(a) Complete the tree diagram.

First pencil Second pencil

Red
.......

Red
6
14 8
13 Blue
Red
.......

....... Blue

....... Blue

[2]

(b) Calculate the probability that

(i) both pencils are red,

Answer(b)(i) ................................................. [2]

(ii) at least one of the pencils is red.

Answer(b)(ii) ................................................. [3]

© UCLES 2015 0580/22/O/N/15

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17 Simplify.
1
x 64 4
e o
16y 16

Answer ................................................ [3]

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18 Samira takes part in two charity runs.

The probability that she finishes each run is 0.8 .

First run Second run

0.8 finishes
finishes
0.8
0.2 does not
finish

0.2 0.8 finishes

does not
finish
0.2 does not
finish

Find the probability that Samira finishes at least one run.

Answer ................................................ [3]

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© UCLES 2015 0580/23/O/N/15

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19 The probability of a cricket team winning or losing in their first two matches is shown in the tree diagram.

First match Second match

3 win
4

1 win
3 1 lose
4

3 win
4
2
3 lose
1 lose
4

Find the probability that the cricket team wins at least one match.

................................................... [3]

© UCLES 2016 0580/21/M/J/16

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7
5 The probability that a plant will produce flowers is .
8
The flowers are either red or yellow.
3
If the plant produces flowers, the probability that the flowers are red is .
4
(a) (i) Complete the tree diagram by writing a probability beside each branch.

Red
............

Flowers

............
............ Yellow

............

No flowers
[2]

(ii) Calculate the probability that a plant, chosen at random, will produce red flowers.

................................................. [2]

© UCLES 2016 0580/42/O/N/16

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(iii) Two plants are chosen at random.

Calculate the probability that both will produce red flowers.

................................................. [2]

(b) Alphonse buys 200 of these plants.

Calculate the number of plants that are expected to produce flowers.

................................................. [2]

(c) Gabriel has 1575 plants with red flowers.

Estimate the total number of plants that Gabriel has.

................................................. [2]

© UCLES 2016 0580/42/O/N/16 [Turn over

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For
6 In a box there are 7 red cards and 3 blue cards. Examiner′s
A card is drawn at random from the box and is not replaced. Use
A second card is then drawn at random from the box.

(a) Complete this tree diagram.

First card Second card

........ Red
7 Red
10 Blue
........

........ Red
........ Blue
Blue
........
[3]

(b) Work out the probability that the two cards are of different colours.
Give your answer as a fraction.

Answer(b) ............................................... [3]

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© UCLES 2013 0580/43/M/J/13

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8 In all parts of this question give your answer as a fraction in its lowest terms. For
Examiner's
Use
1
(a) (i) The probability that it will rain today is .
3

What is the probability that it will not rain today?

Answer(a)(i) [1]

2
(ii) If it rains today, the probability that it will rain tomorrow is .
5

1
If it does not rain today, the probability that it will rain tomorrow is .
6

Complete the tree diagram.

Today Tomorrow

Rain
Rain
No rain

Rain
No rain
No rain

[2]

(b) Find the probability that it will rain on at least one of these two days.

Answer(b) [3]

(c) Find the probability that it will rain on only one of these two days.

Answer(c) [3]

© UCLES 2012 0580/42/M/J/12 [Turn over

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7 A train stops at station A and then at station B.

If the train is late at station A, the probability that it is late at station B is 0.9 .
If the train is not late at station A, the probability that it is late at station B is 0.2 .
The probability that the train is late at station A is 0.3 .

(a) Complete the tree diagram.

Station A Station B

late
0.9

late
0.3
not late
...............

late
...............

............... not late

not late
...............
[2]
(b) (i) Find the probability that the train is late at one or both of the stations.

................................................. [3]

(ii) This train makes 250 journeys.

Find the number of journeys that the train is expected to be late at one or both of the stations.

................................................. [1]

(c) The train continues to station C.

The probability that it is late at all 3 stations is 0.27 .

Describe briefly what this probability shows.

..............................................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................................. [1]
© UCLES 2016 0580/41/O/N/16
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1
9 If the weather is fine the probability that Carlos is late arriving at school is 10 .
1
If the weather is not fine the probability that he is late arriving at school is 3 .
3
The probability that the weather is fine on any day is 4 .

(a) Complete the tree diagram to show this information.

Weather Arriving at school

1
10 Late

3 Fine
4 Not late
........

........ Late
........ Not fine
Not late
........
[3]

(b) In a school term of 60 days, find the number of days the weather is expected to be fine.

Answer(b) ................................................ [1]

(c) Find the probability that the weather is fine and Carlos is late arriving at school.

Answer(c) ................................................ [2]

(d) Find the probability that Carlos is not late arriving at school.

Answer(d) ................................................ [3]

(e) Find the probability that the weather is not fine on at least one day in a school week of 5 days.

Answer(e) ................................................ [2]

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© UCLES 2014 0580/42/M/J/14

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For
8 In this question, give all your answers as fractions. Examiner′s
5 Use
When Ivan goes to school in winter, the probability that he wears a hat is .
8
2
If he wears a hat, the probability that he wears a scarf is .
3
1
If he does not wear a hat, the probability that he wears a scarf is .
6
(a) Complete the tree diagram.

........ Scarf
Hat
........
No scarf
........

........ Scarf
........ No hat
No scarf
........
[3]
(b) Find the probability that Ivan

(i) does not wear a hat and does not wear a scarf,

Answer(b)(i) ............................................... [2]

(ii) wears a hat but does not wear a scarf,

Answer(b)(ii) ............................................... [2]

(iii) wears a hat or a scarf but not both.

Answer(b)(iii) ............................................... [2]

7
(c) If Ivan wears a hat and a scarf, the probability that he wears gloves is .
10
Calculate the probability that Ivan does not wear all three of hat, scarf and gloves.

Answer(c) ............................................... [3]

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© UCLES 2013 0580/42/M/J/13 [Turn over

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2 In this question give all your answers as fractions. For

Examiner's
Use
3
The probability that it rains on Monday is .
5
4
If it rains on Monday, the probability that it rains on Tuesday is .
7
5
If it does not rain on Monday, the probability that it rains on Tuesday is .
7
(a) Complete the tree diagram.

Monday Tuesday

Rain
Rain
No rain

Rain
No rain
No rain
[3]
(b) Find the probability that it rains

(i) on both days,

Answer(b)(i) [2]

(ii) on Monday but not on Tuesday,

Answer(b)(ii) [2]

(iii) on only one of the two days.

Answer(b)(iii) [2]

(c) If it does not rain on Monday and it does not rain on Tuesday, the probability that it does not
1
rain on Wednesday is .
4
Calculate the probability that it rains on at least one of the three days.

Answer(c) [3]

© UCLES 2011 0580/41/M/J/11

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4 Yeung and Ariven compete in a triathlon race.

3
The probability that Yeung finishes this race is 5 .
2
The probability that Ariven finishes this race is 3 .

(a) (i) Which of them is more likely to finish this race?

Give a reason for your answer.

Answer(a)(i) ...................................................... because ..........................................................

..................................................................................................................................................... [1]

(ii) Find the probability that they both finish this race.

Answer(a)(ii) ................................................ [2]

(iii) Find the probability that only one of them finishes this race.

Answer(a)(iii) ................................................ [3]

© UCLES 2014 0580/43/O/N/14

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(b) After the first race, Yeung competes in two further triathlon races.

(i) Complete the tree diagram.

First race Second race Third race

7
10 Finishes
6 Finishes
7
Does not
........ finish
Finishes
7
3 10 Finishes
5 ........ Does not
finish
Does not
........ finish
7
10 Finishes
6 Finishes
7
........ Does not
........ finish
Does not
finish 7
10 Finishes
........ Does not
finish
Does not
........ finish
[3]

(ii) Calculate the probability that Yeung finishes all three of his races.

Answer(b)(ii) ................................................ [2]

(iii) Calculate the probability that Yeung finishes at least one of his races.

Answer(b)(iii) ................................................ [3]

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© UCLES 2014 0580/43/O/N/14 [Turn over