5 - Dinero en La Funcion de Utilidad
5 - Dinero en La Funcion de Utilidad
Macroeconomı́a II
Maestrı́a en Economı́a
UTDT
Francisco J. Ciocchini
2023
1/43
Plan
I In this lecture
I Calibrate the model and compute the solution using Uhlig’s method.
Yt = Zt Kt✓ Ht1 ✓
✓ 2 (0, 1)
I TFP:
ln Zt+1 = (1 ) ln Z + ln Zt + "t+1
where 2 (0, 1), Z > 0, and {"t+1 }1 t=0 is a sequence of zero-mean i.i.d.
random variables with variance 2" .
3/43
RBC Model with MIUF
I Government
Vt = Mt Mt 1
= µt M t 1 Mt 1
= (µt 1)Mt 1
where Vt are lump-sum transfers to the private sector during period t, Mt is the
money supply at the end of t, the initial stock M 1 > 0 is given, and µt is the
gross growth rate of the money supply between t 1 and t.
I We assume:
ln µt+1 = (1 ↵) ln µ + ↵ ln µt + ⌘ t+1
I Money supply shocks (⌘ t ) and TFP shocks ("t ) are independent from
each other.
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RBC Model with MIUF
I Representative Household
I Expected Utility:
P1 ⇣ ⌘
E0 t Mt
t=0 u Ct , H t , Pt
where ⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘
Mt Mt
u Ct , H t , pt
= ln Ct BHt + a ln Pt
I Budget Constraint:
Bt Mt
Ct + Kt+1 + Pt
+ Pt
= wt Ht + Rt Kt + ⇧t + (1 )Kt
(1+it 1 )Bt 1 Mt 1 Vt
+ Pt
+ Pt
+ Pt
5/43
Profit Maximization
I Profit maximization:
I FOC: ⇣ ⌘ (1 ✓)
Kt Yt
Rt = ✓Zt Ht
= ✓K t
⇣ ⌘✓
Kt Yt
wt = (1 ✓) Zt Ht
= (1 ✓) Ht
⇧t = 0
6/43
Utility Maximization
I Lagrangian:
8 P1 t 9
>
> t=0 u (Ct , Ht , Mt /Pt ) + >
>
>
< >
=
L = E0 " (1+it )Bt Mt #
>
> P1 t wt Ht + Rt Kt + ⇧t + (1 )Kt + 1
Pt
1
+ Pt
1
>
>
>
: t=0 t V Bt Mt >
;
+ Pt Ct Kt+1 Pt Pt
t
I FOC
Ct : uC (t) = t
Ht : uH (t) = t wt
Mt : u M (t) P1t 1
tP
t
+ Et { t+1 P
1
t+1
}=0
P
1+it
Bt : 1
tP
t
= Et { t+1 P
t+1
}
7/43
Utility Maximization
uH (t)
= wt
uC (t)
n o
uC (t) = Et uC (t + 1)(1 + it ) PPt+1
t
n o
uC (t) = (1 + it ) Et uC (t + 1) PPt+1
t
8/43
Utility Maximization
I From the FOC w.r.t. Ct and Mt we get:
n o
uC (t) = u M (t) + Et uC (t + 1) PPt+1
t
P
uC (t)
uC (t) = u M (t) +
P 1 + it
I Then:
u M (t) it
P
=
uC (t) 1 + it
9/43
Utility Maximization
I For u (C, H, M/P ) = ln C BH + a ln (M/P ) we have:
1
uC = C
uH = B
a
uM = M
P P
I Define:
Mt
mt ⌘ Pt
Pt+1
⇡ t+1 ⌘ Pt
I Then, uH (t)
uC (t)
= wt )
BCt = wt
10/43
Utility Maximization
I From uC (t) = Et {uC (t + 1)(Rt+1 + 1 )} we get:
n o
Ct
1
= Et Ct+1
(Rt+1 +1 )
n o
I From uC (t) = u M (t) + Et uC (t + 1) PPt we get:
P t+1
n o
1
Ct
= a
mt
+ Et 1 1
Ct+1 ⇡ t+1
u M (t)
I From P
uC (t)
= it
1+it
we obtain the money-demand function:
mt = a 1+i
it
t
Ct
11/43
Market Clearing
Yts = Ytd
Kts = Ktd
Hts = Htd
Mtd = Mts
Btd = 0
12/43
Walras Law
I From the budget constraint of the representative household we get:
d Mtd
d d Bd Md s s (1+it )B
t V
Ct + It + Pt + P t = wt Ht + Rt Kt + ⇧t + + Pt
1 1 1
Pt
+ Pt
t t t
(1+it
d
)B Mtd Mts Mts
1 t 1 1 1
+ Pt
+ Pt
+ Pt
I Then:
!
Bd Mtd Mts
(Ctd + Itd Yts ) + wt (Htd Hts ) + Rt (Ktd Kts ) + Pt + Pt Pt
t
d
!
(1+it 1
)B
t 1
Mtd 1
Mts 1
= Pt
+ Pt Pt
13/43
Equilibrium
I In a competitive equilibrium, market clearing must hold in every period. Then:
Yts = Ytd = Yt
Kts = Ktd = Kt
Hts = Htd = Ht
Mtd = Mts = Mt
I Also:
Mt
mdt = mst = mt =
Pt
14/43
Equilibrium
I We can summarize the equilibrium conditions as follows (12 equations, 12 variables):
Yt = Zt Kt✓ Ht1 ✓
Yt
wt = (1 ✓) Ht
Y
Rt = ✓ Kt
t
It = Kt+1 (1 )Kt
Y t = Ct + It
1+it
mt = a it Ct
BCt = wt
µt
mt = ⇡t mt 1
n o
= Et
1 Ct
Ct+1 (Rt+1 + 1 )
n o
1
Ct = a
mt + Et 1 1
Ct+1 ⇡ t+1
ln Zt+1 = (1 ) ln Z + ln Zt + "t+1
ln µt+1 = (1 ↵) ln µ + ↵ ln µt + ⌘ t+1
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Nonstochastic Steady State
I We use upper bars to denote the nonstochastic steady state (nss).
Z=Z
µ=µ
I From mt = µt
⇡t
mt 1 we get: m = µ
⇡
m. Then: ⇡ = µ )
⇡=µ
n o
I From 1
= Et Ct
Ct+1
(Rt+1 +1 ) , Ct = Ct+1 = C, and Rt+1 = R we
1
get: R = (1 ))
R=⇢+
1
where we have used ⌘ 1+⇢
.
16/43
Nonstochastic Steady State
⇣ ⌘ (1 ✓) ⇣ ⌘ (1 ✓)
I From Rt = ✓Zt Kt
Ht
we get R = ✓Z K
. Then:
H
✓ ◆ 1
K ✓Z 1 ✓
=
H R
⇣ ⌘✓ ⇣ ⌘✓
I From wt = (1 ✓) Zt Kt
Ht
we get: w = (1 ✓) Z K
)
H
⇣ ⌘ ✓
✓Z 1 ✓
w = (1 ✓) Z R
17/43
Nonstochastic Steady State
n o
I From 1
Ct
= mat + Et 1 1
Ct+1 ⇡ t+1
we get 1
= a
m
+ 1 1
. Then, using
C C ⇡
⇡ = µ, we get:
m = a µµ C
I From mt = a 1+i
it
t
Ct we get m = a 1+i C. Using the previous expression
i
to eliminate m we get: a µ µ C = a 1+i
i
C. Then: µ
µ
= 1+i
i
. Then:
µ
i=
18/43
Nonstochastic Steady State
I From the previous expression we get 1 + i = 1 µ. Using µ = ⇡ :
1
1+i= ⇡
I Now we write the rest of the variables in terms of K and then solve for K.
I= K
⇣ ⌘ 1
I From K
= ✓Z 1 ✓
:
H R
⇣ ⌘ 1
R 1 ✓
H= ✓Z
K
19/43
Nonstochastic Steady State
Y = ✓1 RK
w
K=
(R
✓
)B
I Remark: in the nss, the only real variable that depends on µ is m (because
it depends on the nominal interest rate i, which increases with ⇡ = µ).
20/43
Log-linearization
I For any variable X define:
et ⌘ ln Xt
X ln X
Yet = Z
et + ✓K
e t + (1 et
✓)H
et = Yet
w et
H
et = Yet
R et
K
Iet = K
e t+1 (1 et
)K
Y Yet = C C
et + I Iet
et
et = C
m eit
µ
21/43
Log-linearization
I Log-linearization (cont.):
et = w
C et
et = m
m et 1 et
+µ et
⇡
n o
et+1
0 = Et C et
C et+1
RR
n o
0 = Et et+1 + ⇡
C et+1 et + (µ
µC et
)m
et+1 = Z
Z et + "t+1 with "t+1 ⇠ IID 0, 2
"
2
et+1 = ↵e
µ µt + ⌘ t+1 with ⌘ t+1 ⇠ IID 0, ⌘
22/43
Price Level
I From ⇡ t+1 ⌘ Pt+1
Pt
we get Pt+1 = ⇡ t+1 Pt )
ln Pt+1 = ln ⇡ t+1 + ln Pt
I From ⇡
et+1 = ln ⇡ t+1 ln ⇡ and ⇡ = µ we get:
et+1
ln ⇡ t+1 = ln µ + ⇡
et+1 + ln Pt
ln Pt+1 = ln µ + ⇡
zt+1 = N zt + ✏t+1
24/43
Matrix Form
2 0 0 3 2 ✓ 0 3
6 0 0 7 6 0 0 7
6 7 6 7
6 0 0 7 6 1 0 7
6 7 6 7
6 1 0 7 6 (1 ) 0 7
A=6 7 B=6 7
6 0 0 7 6 0 0 7
6 7 6 7
6 0 1 7 6 0 0 7
4 0 0 5 4 0 0 5
0 1 0 1
2 3 2 3
1 0 0 (1 ✓) 0 0 0 0 1 0
6 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 7 6 0 0 7
6 7 6 7
6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 7 6 0 0 7
6 7 6 7
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 6 0 0 7
C=6
6 Y C I 0 0 0 0 0
7
7 D=6 7
6 7 6 0 0 7
6 7 6 7
6 0 1 0 0 0 0 µ
0 7 6 0 0 7
4 5 4 0 0 5
0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
25/43
Matrix Form
I Matrices F, G, H, J, K, L, M, N are the following:
0 0 0 0 0 0
F = G= H=
0 0 0 µ 0 0
0 1 0 0 R 0 0 0
J =
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
K =
0 µ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
L = M=
0 0 0 0
0
N =
0 ↵
26/43
Calibration
I For quarterly data:
Z = 1
✓ = 0.36
= 0.99
B = 2.86
= 0.025
= 0.95
↵ = 0.48
a = 0.01
" = 0.00721
⌘ = 0.009
Similar to the Cash-in-Advance (CIA) model in Cooley & Hansen (1989). The value of a is
chosen so that, when µ = 1, the value of m is similar to the one implied by Cooley &
Hansen (1989). This is the value chosen by McCandless (2008), Chapter 9.
27/43
Calibration
I We solve the model for two di↵erent values of µ, 1.015 and 1.15. We get:
µ = 1.015 µ = 1.15
R 0.0351 0.0351
w 2.3706 2.3706
C 0.8288 0.8288
K 11.4324 11.4324
H 0.3009 0.3009
Y 1.1147 1.1147
I 0.2858 0.2858
m 0.3365 0.0596
i 0.0253 0.1616
⇡ 1.0150 1.1500
28/43
Solution
xt = P xt 1 + Q zt
yt = R xt 1 + S zt
0.9418 0 0.1552 0
P = Q=
0.5316 0 0.4703 0.8803
2 3 2 3
0.0550 0 1.9417 0
6 0.5316 0 7 6 0.4703 0 7
6 7 6 7
6 1.3273 0 7 6 6.2091 0 7
6 7 6 7
6 0.4766 0 7 6 1.4715 0 7
R=6
6
7
7 S=6
6
7
7
6 0.9450 0 7 6 1.9417 0 7
6 0.5316 0 7 6 0.4703 0 7
6 7 6 7
4 0.0000 0 5 4 0.0000 0.9026 5
0.5316 1 0.4703 1.8803
29/43
Solution
I Then:
e t+1 = 0.9418K
K e t + 0.1552Z
et
m e t + 0.4703Z
e t = 0.5316K et 0.8803e
µt
Yet = 0.0550K
e t + 1.9417Z
et
et = 0.5316K
C e t + 0.4703Z
et
Iet = e t + 6.2091Z
1.3273K et
et =
H e t + 1.4715Z
0.4766K et
et =
R e t + 1.9417Z
0.9450K et
e t + 0.4703Z
et = 0.5316K
w et
eit = 0.9026e
µt
et =
⇡ et + m
0.5316K et 1
et + 1.8803e
0.4703Z µt
30/43
Solution
I Notice that the solution for K
e t+1 , Yet , C
et , Iet , H
et, R
e t and w
et coincides
with the solution of the real model in Hansen (1985). Upon reflection this
is not surprising since the system of equations that characterizes the
equilibrium can be broken down in two blocks.
I Block 1
Yet = Z
et + ✓ K
e t + (1 et
✓)H
et = Yet
w et
H
et = Yet
R et
K
Iet = K
e t+1 (1 et
)K
Y Yet = C C
et + I Iet
et = w
C et
n o
0 = Et Cet+1 et
C et+1
RR
et+1 = Z
Z et + "t+1
31/43
Solution
I Block 2
et
et = C
m ei
µ t
et = m
m et 1 et
+µ et
⇡
n o
0 = Et et+1 + ⇡
C et+1 et + (µ
µC et
)m
et+1 = ↵e
µ µt + ⌘ t+1
I Block 1 is exactly the same as the one in Hansen’s model. This block of 8 equations can be
e t+1 , Yet , C
solved to obtain the paths of K et , Iet , H
et , R
et , w et (8 variables). Given
et and Z
et obtained from Block 1, we can solve Block 2 (4 equations) to obtain the
the solution for C
e t , eit , ⇡
paths of m e t and µ
et (4 variables).
I Separability of real balances in the utility function is important for this result.
I The only real variable that is a↵ected by money growth is mt (real balances). When this
happens we say that money is superneutral. It is natural to expect that m is a↵ected by
money growth since µ a↵ects the nominal interest rate, which is a determinant of the
demand for real balances.
32/43
Simulations
I Percent Standard Deviations
Real Balances 0.9445 0.54
Results based on 100 simulations. Each simulation consists of 115 periods, which is the
sample size in Cooley & Hansen (1989). Data was detrended using the HP filter with
= 1600. Second column: standard deviations relative to output.
33/43
Simulations
I Contemporaneous Correlations with Output
Results based on 100 simulations. Each simulation consists of 115 periods, which is the
sample size in Cooley & Hansen (1989). Data was detrended using the HP filter with
= 1600. Second column: small sample standard errors (simulation based).
34/43
Impulse-Response Functions
I TFP shock
35/43
Impulse-Response Functions
I Shock to money growth
36/43
Modified version of the model
I Government:
Mt Mt 1
Gt = Pt
Mt Mt 1
where Gt = government purchases of goods. and Pt
⌘ St is seigniorage.
I In particular, assume:
ln Gt+1 = (1 ) ln G + ln Gt + ⇠ t+1
Y t = C t + It + G t
37/43
Modified version of the model
I It’s not difficult to show that, in the nonstochastic steady state,
seigniorage is:
µ 1 µ 1 aC
S= µ
m = µ 1
µ
µ 1
S= µ
aC
G=G
µ 1
G= µ aC
38/43
Modified version of the model
I Determination of µ
39/43
Modified version of the model
I Increase in G
40/43
Appendix: MIUF when the nominal interest rate is zero
I From the FOC w.r.t. Ct and Mt we get:
n o
uC (t) = u M (t) + Et uC (t + 1) PPt+1
t
(1)
P
41/43
Appendix: MIUF when the nominal interest rate is zero
I Then
u M (t) = 0
P
I Notice, however, that u M (t) = 0 cannot hold if the utility function always
P
displays u M > 0, like in our logarithmic case.
P
I What’s happening?
I Well, with it = 0 and u M > 0, the household could borrow like crazy
P
(Bt /Pt ! 1) and use the proceeds to increase real balances
(Mt /Pt ! +1). This operation would always increase utility (since
u M > 0). Hence, the maximization problem of the household would have
P
no solution.
42/43
Bibliography
I Walsh, Carl (2017). Monetary Theory and Policy , 4th edition, MIT Press.
Chapters 2 & 3.
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