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9 - Simplified PSHA - An Example

This document provides a simplified example of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). It considers a single seismic source near the site and calculates the annual exceedance rate and return period for a peak ground acceleration level of interest. The calculation involves using the magnitude-recurrence relationship of the source and a ground motion prediction equation to determine which earthquakes will produce sufficient shaking at the site. The process is then repeated for other shaking levels to develop a hazard curve showing the relationship between peak ground acceleration and annual exceedance rate. Multiple seismic sources can also be incorporated into the PSHA by summing their individual hazard contributions at the site.

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Duy Phước
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102 views

9 - Simplified PSHA - An Example

This document provides a simplified example of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). It considers a single seismic source near the site and calculates the annual exceedance rate and return period for a peak ground acceleration level of interest. The calculation involves using the magnitude-recurrence relationship of the source and a ground motion prediction equation to determine which earthquakes will produce sufficient shaking at the site. The process is then repeated for other shaking levels to develop a hazard curve showing the relationship between peak ground acceleration and annual exceedance rate. Multiple seismic sources can also be incorporated into the PSHA by summing their individual hazard contributions at the site.

Uploaded by

Duy Phước
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Seismic Hazard Assessment

Part 3: Simplified (PSHA) – An Example

Dr. Fawad A. Najam Prof. Dr. Pennung Warnitchai


Department of Structural Engineering Head, Department of Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
NUST Institute of Civil Engineering (NICE) School of Engineering and Technology (SET)
National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)
H-12 Islamabad, Pakistan Bangkok, Thailand
Cell: 92-334-5192533, Email: [email protected]
Simplified PSHA – An Example

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 2


Simplified PSHA – An Example

To demonstrate on how probabilistic ground motion is estimated, a simplified calculation of probabilistic


ground motion is presented as follows:

Let’s consider a simple case where only one seismic source (A) is located near the site of interest (P).

Site
Seismic Source

The source-to-site distance = RAP = 30 km.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 3


Magnitude-Recurrence Relationship
for Seismic Source A GMPE suitable for the tectonic environment
of the site

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 4


Simplified PSHA

Let’s set the PGA level of interest P


at the site to, say, 0.10 g. Site
Seismic Source

According to the selected attenuation


relationship, earthquakes with magnitude
greater than 6.6 will produce PGA at the
site equal to or greater than 0.10 g.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 5


Simplified PSHA

According to the magnitude-recurrence relationship of


the source zone A, the annual occurrence rate of
earthquakes with M > 6.6 = N(M=6.6) = 0.007 event
per year

Hence, the annual occurrence rate of having PGA at the


site exceeding 0.10 g = 0.007 (event per year)
= annual exceedance rate.

In the other words, the return period for PGA > 0.10
g = 1/0.007 = 143 years.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 6


Random Occurrence of Earthquakes in Time:
Poisson Process
Annual Frequency
Annual exceedance rate = total number of events/time period = 0.007
of Exceedance

Time,yr

Return Period = time period/total number of events = 143 yr

= Earthquake Event with PGA > 0.10 g at the site

Given a time period of 10 years,


the chance of having such event in this time period
= 0.007 x 10 = 0.07 = 7 %, or
= 10/147 = 0.07 = 7 % 7% PE in 10 Years PGA = 0.1 g

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 7


Simplified PSHA

• Repeat the calculation process for many other PGA levels


(0.01g, 0.05g, 0.20g, etc.).

• Draw the relationship between PGA and the corresponding


annual exceedance rate.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 8


Simplified PSHA

How to read the hazard curve?

• Determine the PGA level with annual exceedance rate of 0.002.

• This PGA level is equal to, say, 0.22 g.

• The exceedance rate in one year = 0.002. The exceedance rate in a


50-yr period = 0.002x50 = 0.10.

• The chance of exceeding PGA of 0.22g in a 50-yr period = 10%.

• Hence, the PGA level with 10% chance of being exceeded in a 50-yr
period is 0.22g.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 9


Different Forms of Hazard Curves

Annual Rate of Rate of Exceedance Probability of Exceedance


Exceedance in 50 Years in 50 Years

Units: Events per year

Units: Events per 50 years Units: percentage

0.002 0.1 10%

Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 10


Multiple Sources B

P
Site
Seismic Source

Annual exceedance rate at the site P =


Annual exceedance rate caused by EQs in source A +
Annual exceedance rate caused by EQs in source B +
Annual exceedance rate caused by EQs in source C
C

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 11


Thank you for your attention

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 12

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