Data and Probability

Data and Probability

Collecting Data
There are different ways to collect information about something.
You can count, measure, ask questions, or observe and describe
what you see. The information you collect is called data.
Surveys
A survey is a study that collects data.
Much of the information used to make decisions comes from
surveys. Many surveys collect data about people. Stores survey
their customers to find out which products they should carry.
Television stations survey viewers to learn which programs
A face-to-face interview
are popular. Politicians survey people to learn how they plan
to vote in elections.
Survey data are collected in several ways. These include
face-to-face interviews, telephone interviews, printed
questionnaires that are returned by mail, and group
discussions (often called focus groups).
Not all surveys gather information about people. For example,
there are surveys about cars, buildings, and animal groups.
These surveys often collect data in ways other than through
interviews or questionnaires.

Highway engineers sometimes make videotapes

of vehicles and drivers along a street or highway.
They use the video data to analyze vehicle
speeds and driving patterns.

A bird survey is conducted during December

From a recent Chicago
and January each year in the Chicago area. bird survey:
Bird watchers list the different bird species
Number of
observed. Then they count the number of
Species birds seen
each species observed. The lists are combined
Canada goose 3,768
to create a final data set. house finch 304
snowy owl 1
starling 1,573

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 Data and Probability

Samples
The population for a survey is the group of people or things
that is being studied. Because the population may be very large,
it may not be possible to collect data from every member of the
population. Therefore, data are collected only from a sample group
to provide information for the population. A sample is a part of
the population that is chosen to represent the whole population.
Large samples usually give more dependable estimates than
small ones. For example, if you want to estimate the percentage
of adults who drive to work, a sample of 100 adults provides a
better estimate than a sample of 10.

A survey of teenagers How Teens Divide

collects data about people Their Media Time
aged 13 to 19. There are about
Watching TV/
28 million teenagers in the videos/movies 51%
United States. It is not possible to Listening to music 18%
collect data from every teenager. Reading 9%
Instead, data are collected from a Playing video games 10%
sample of teenagers. Using computers 12%

Results from a recent survey of Source:

teens are shown in the table. Henry J. Kaiser Foundation A census collects data
from every member of
the population. In a
The decennial (every 10 years) census is a survey that includes census, the sample and
all the people in the United States. Every household is required the population are
to fill out a census form, but certain questions are asked only in identical.
a sample of 1 in 6 households.
A random sample is a sample that gives all members of the
population the same chance of being selected. Random samples
give more dependable information than those that are not random.
The word census comes
from the Latin word
Suppose you want to estimate what percentage censere, which means
of the population will vote for Mr. Jenkins. “to tax.” Censuses were
taken by the ancient
• If you use a sample of Mr. Jenkins’s 100 best friends, the
Babylonians, Egyptians,
sample is not a random sample. People who do not know
Greeks, and Romans.
Mr. Jenkins have no chance of being selected.
Their major purpose was
• A sample of best friends will not fairly represent the entire to find the number and
population. It will not furnish a dependable estimate of how location of households
the entire population will vote. that could be taxed.

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Data and Probability

Organizing Data
Once the data have been collected, it helps to organize them in
order to make them easier to understand. Line plots and tally
charts are two methods of organizing data.

Ms. Halko's class got the following scores on a 20-word vocabulary

test. Make a line plot and a tally chart to show the data below.
20 15 18 17 20 12 15 17 19 18 20 16 16
17 14 15 19 18 18 15 10 20 19 18 15 18

Scores on a 20-Word
Vocabulary Test
Number Number of
Correct Students
10 /
11
12 /
13
14 /
15 ////
In the line plot, there are 5 Xs above 15. 16 //
In the tally chart, there are 5 tallies to the right of 15. 17 ///
18 //// /
The 5 Xs and the 5 tallies each show that a score of 15
appeared 5 times in the class list of test scores. 19 ///
20 ////

Both the line plot and the tally chart help to organize the data.
They make it easier to describe the data. For example,
♦ 4 students had 20 correct (a perfect score).
♦ 18 correct is the score that came up most often.
♦ 10, 12, and 14 correct are scores that came up least often.
♦ 0 to 9, 11, and 13 correct are scores that did not occur at all.

Here are the numbers of hits made by 18 players in a baseball game:

3 1 0 4 0 2 1 0 0 2 3 0 2 2 1 2 0 0
Organize the data.
1. Make a tally chart. 2. Make a line plot. Check your answers on page 418.

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 Data and Probability

Sometimes the data are spread over a wide range of numbers.

This makes a tally chart or a line plot difficult to draw. In
such cases, you can make a tally chart in which the results
are grouped. Or, you may organize the data by making a
stem-and-leaf plot.
For a health project, the students in Mr. Preston’s class
took each other’s pulse rates. (A pulse rate is the number
of heartbeats per minute.) These were the results:
92 72 90 86 102 78 88 75 72 82
90 94 70 94 78 75 90 102 65 94
70 94 85 88 105 86 78 75 86 108 Pulse Rates of Students
Number of Number of
94 75 88 86 99 78 86 Heartbeats Students
Tally Chart of Grouped Data 60–69 /
The data have been sorted or grouped into intervals 70–79 //// //// //
of 10. This is called a tally chart of grouped data. 80–89 //// ////
90–99 //// ////
The chart shows that most of the students had a pulse
100–109 ////
rate from 70 to 99. More students had a pulse rate in
the 70s than in any other interval.
Stem-and-Leaf Plot Pulse Rates of Students
In a stem-and-leaf plot, the digit or digits in the left Stems Leaves
(10s) (1s)
column (the stem) are combined with a single digit
in the right column (the leaf) to form a numeral. 6 5
7 2 8 5 2 0 8 5 0 8 5 5 8
Each row has as many entries as there are digits in
8 6 8 2 5 8 6 6 8 6 6
the right column. For example, the row with 8 in the
9 2 0 0 4 4 0 4 4 4 9
left column has 10 entries: 86, 88, 82, 85, 88, 86, 86, 10 2 2 5 8
88, 86, and 86.

The first manned spaceflight occurred during the early 1960s.

The ages of the first 10 space travelers were:
27 25 43 37 32 31 39 36 28 26
Organize the data.
1. Make a tally chart of grouped data. 2. Make a stem-and-leaf plot.
Check your answers on page 419.

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Data and Probability

Statistical Landmarks
The landmarks for a set of data are used to describe the data.
♦ The minimum is the smallest value.
♦ The maximum is the largest value.
♦ The range is the difference between the maximum and the minimum.
♦ The mode is the value (or values) that occurs most often.
♦ The median is the middle value.

Here is a record of children’s absences Day Number Absent

for one week at Henry Esmond School.
Monday 24
Find the landmarks for the data. Tuesday 21
Minimum (lowest) number: 9 Wednesday 9
Maximum (highest) number: 24 Thursday 13
Friday 13
Range of numbers: 24 – 9 = 15
Mode (most frequent number): 13
9 13 13 21 24
To find the median (middle value), list the numbers
in order. Then, find the middle number. median

The line plot shows students’ scores on a 20-word vocabulary test.

Find the landmarks for the data.

Minimum: 10
Maximum: 20
Range: 20  10  10
Mode: 18

There are two middle scores, 17 and 18. The median is 17.5,
which is the number halfway between 17 and 18

Here are the math quiz scores (number correct): 4 2 1 2 0 2 1 0 0 2 1 3

Find the minimum, maximum, range, mode, and median for this set of data.
Check your answers on page 419.

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 Data and Probability

The Mean (or Average)

The mean of a set of numbers is often called the average. The mean can also be
To find the mean, do the following: thought of as a landmark.
The mean and the median
Step 1: Add the numbers.
are often the same or
Step 2: Divide the sum by the number of addends. almost the same.
Both the mean and the
On a 4-day trip, Kenny’s family drove 200, 120, median can be thought
160, and 260 miles. What is the mean number of as a “typical” number
of miles they drove per day? for the data set.
Step 1: Add the numbers: 200  120  160  260  740.
Step 2: Divide by the number of addends: 740  4  185.
The mean is 185.
They drove an average of 185 miles per day. In Olympic diving events,
seven judges score each
If you use a calculator key in: dive. Then the highest
200 120 160 260 score and lowest score
are thrown out before
Divide this sum by 4. 740 4 Answer: 185 the mean score is
calculated. This is called
When calculating the mean of a large set of numbers, it often a trimmed mean.
helps to organize the data in a tally chart or line plot first.

Students measured each Height Number of Calculator

(inches) Students Key in: Answer
other’s height in inches.
What is the mean height? 49 // 2 49 98

The students organized the

50 // 2 50 198
measurements in a tally chart 51 / 51 249
(the first two columns). 52 //// 4 52 457
On calculators, they multiplied each 53 / 53 510
height by the number of students 54 // 2 54 618
of that height and kept a running 55 /// 3 55 783
total. Then, they divided the final 56 //// 5 56 1063
total by the number of students. 57
The mean, rounded to the 58 // 2 58 1179
nearest inch, is 54 inches. Total 22 22 53.590909

Megan received these scores on math tests: 80 75 80 75 80 90 80 85 80 90 75

Use your calculator to find Megan’s mean score.
Check your answers on page 419.

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Data and Probability

Bar Graphs
A bar graph is a drawing that uses bars to represent numbers.
Bar graphs display information in a way that makes it easy to The first bar graph was
show comparisons. drawn by William Playfair
in 1786. It showed the
The title of a bar graph describes the information in the graph. cash value of Scotland’s
Each bar has a label. Units are given to show how something trade with 18 other
was counted or measured. When possible, the graph gives the countries.
source of the information.

This is a vertical bar graph.

• Each bar represents the number of pet
cats in the country that is named below
the bar.
• It is easy to compare cat populations by
comparing the bars. China has about 4
or 5 times as many cats as Russia, Brazil,
and France. The ratio of cats in the U.S.
to cats in China is about 75 to 50, or
about 3 to 2.

This is a horizontal bar graph.

• Each bar represents the percent of persons

in an age group who live alone.
• The bars show a clear trend. As the age for
a group increases, the percent of persons in
that group who live alone increases. Only
3% of 15- to 24-year-olds live alone. But
28% of those 75 and older live alone.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Popular Pets in the United States

The table at the right shows the Pet Percent of U.S. Households
dog 36%
percent of U.S. households that own
cat 32%
popular pets. Make a bar graph to bird 5%
show this information. fish 3%
horse 2%
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States
Check your answer on page 419.

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 Data and Probability

Side-by-Side and Stacked Bar Graphs

Sometimes two or more bar graphs are related to the same
situation. Related bar graphs are often combined into a single
graph. The combined graph saves space and makes it easier to
compare the data. The examples below show two different ways
to draw combined bar graphs.

The first bar graph shows road miles from

Boston to different cities. The second bar graph
shows air miles.
The graphs are combined into a side-by-side bar graph by
drawing the related bars side by side in different colors. It is easy
to compare road miles and air miles on the side-by-side graph.

Source: The World Almanac and National Geodetic Survey

The bar graphs below show the number of

sports teams that boys and girls joined during a
1-year period.
The bars within each graph can be stacked on top of one another.
The stacked bar graph includes each of the stacked bars.

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Data and Probability

Line Graphs
Line graphs are used to display information that shows
trends. They often show how something has changed over a
period of time.
Line graphs are often called broken-line graphs. Line
segments connect the points on the graph. The segments joined
end to end look like a broken line.
Line graphs have a horizontal and a vertical scale. Each of
these scales is called an axis (plural: axes). Each axis is labeled
to show what is being measured or counted and what the unit of Joined end to end,
the segments look
measure or count unit is. like a broken line.
When looking at a line graph, try to determine the purpose of
the graph. See what conclusions you can draw from it.

The broken-line graph at the right

shows the average number of
thunderstorm days for each month
in Chicago, Illinois.
The horizontal axis shows each month of the year.
The average number of thunderstorm days for a
month is shown with a dot above the label for that
month. The labels on the vertical axis are used to
estimate the number of days represented by that dot.
From January to June, the number of thunderstorm
days increases each month. From June to January,
the number decreases. The greatest change in
number of thunderstorm days from one month to
the next occurs from September to October.

The following table shows average temperatures for Boston, Massachusetts.

Make a line graph to show this information.

Average Temperatures for Boston, Massachusetts

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Temperature (°F) 29 32 39 48 59 68 74 72 65 54 45 35

Check your answer on page 419.

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Step Graphs
Step graphs are used to describe situations in which changes
in values are not gradual but occur in jumps.

The step graph at the right shows the

cost of renting a bicycle from B & H
Rentals.
According to the graph, it costs $10 to rent a bike for
1 hour or less and $2.50 for each additional half-hour
or fraction of a half-hour. For example, it costs $10
1
whether you rent a bike for 2 hour, 45 minutes, or
1 hour. It costs $12.50 whether you rent a bike for
1
12 hours or just 1 hour and 1 minute.
Note the dot at the end of the segment for the first
hour. It indicates that the cost is $10 for 1 hour. There
is no dot at the beginning of the segment for the
second hour. This indicates that $12.50 is not the cost
for 1 hour. The other dots in the graph are interpreted
in the same way.

Telephone and parking lot rates are other examples of

situations that can be shown by step graphs. Such rates do not
change gradually over time but change at the end of intervals
of time, such as minutes or hours.

The step graph at the right shows the cost of taking a cab
various distances.
1. Find the cost of taking a cab for each distance.
a. 1 mile b. 1.2 miles c. 2 miles
d. 4 miles e. 3.5 miles
2. a. What is the cost of taking a cab for a distance of
1 mile or less?
b. What is the cost for each additional mile or fraction
of a mile?

Check your answers on page 419.

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Data and Probability

History and Uses of Spreadsheets

Everyday Rentals–Debit Statement for May, 1964

Invoice Amount Balance
Company Type Invoice # Amount Paid Due
Electric Utility 2704-3364 342.12 100.00 242.12
Gas Utility 44506-309 129.43 50.00 79.43
Phone Utility 989-2209 78.56 78.56 0.00
Water Utility 554-2-1018 13.12 13.12
NW Bank Mortgage May 1964 1,264.00 1,264.00 0.00
Waste Removal Garbage 387-219 23.00 23.00
NW Lumber Supplies e-318 239.47 50.00 189.47
Total 2,089.70 1,542.56 547.14

Above is a copy of a financial record for Everyday Rentals

Corporation for May, 1964. A financial record often had more
columns of figures than would fit on one sheet of paper, so
accountants taped several sheets together. They folded the
sheets for storage and spread them out to read or make entries.
Such sheets came to be called spreadsheets.
Note that the “Balance Due” column and the “Total” row are
calculated from other numbers in the spreadsheet. Before they
had computers, accountants wrote spreadsheets by hand. If an
accountant changed a number in one row or column, several other
numbers would have to be erased, recalculated, and reentered.
For example, when Everyday Rentals Corporation pays the $23
owed to Waste Removal, the accountant must enter that amount
in the “Amount Paid” column. That means the total of the
“Amount Paid” column must be changed as well. That’s not
all–making a payment changes the amount in the “Balance Due” In mathematics and
column and the total of the “Balance Due” column. One entry science, computer
requires three other changes to update (revise) the spreadsheet. spreadsheets are used
to store large amounts of
When personal computers were developed, spreadsheet
data and to perform
programs were among the first applications. Spreadsheet complicated calculations.
programs save time by making changes automatically. Suppose People use spreadsheets
the record at the top of this page is on a computer spreadsheet. at home to keep track
When the accountant enters the payment of $23, the computer of budgets, payments,
automatically recalculates all of the numbers that are affected and taxes.
by that payment.

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 Data and Probability

Spreadsheets and Computers

A spreadsheet program enables you to use
a computer to evaluate formulas quickly and
efficiently. On a computer screen, a spreadsheet
looks like a table. Each cell in the table has an
address made up of a letter and a number. The
letter identifies the column, and the number
identifies the row in which the cell is found.
For example, cell B3 is in column B, row 3.
To enter information in a cell, you can use a computer mouse
to click on the cell; the address of the cell will appear in the
address box. Then, you type the information you want to enter
in the cell; the information will appear in the display bar.
There are three kinds of information that may be entered in
a spreadsheet.
♦ Labels (may consist of words, numbers, or both) These are
used to display information about the spreadsheet, such as
the headings for the columns and rows. Numbers in labels
are never used in calculations. When a label is entered from
the keyboard, it is stored in its address and shown in its cell
on the screen.
♦ Numbers (those not included in labels) These are used in
calculations. When a number is entered from the keyboard, it
is stored in its address and appears in its cell on the screen.
♦ Formulas These tell the computer what calculations to
make on the numbers in other cells. When a formula is
entered from the keyboard, it is stored in its address but is
not shown in its cell on the screen. Instead, a number is
shown in the cell. This number is the result of applying the
formula to numbers in other cells.

Study the spreadsheet at the right.

All the entries in row 1 and column A are labels.
The entries in cells B3 through B6 and cells C3 through C6
are numbers that are not labels. They have been entered
from the keyboard and are used in calculations.
Cells D3 through D10 also display numbers, but they have
not been entered from the keyboard. Instead, a formula was entered in each of these cells.
The computer program used these formulas to calculate the numbers that appear in column D.
The numbers in column D are the results of calculations.

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Data and Probability

Study the spreadsheet at the right.

The address box shows that cell D3 has been selected;
the display bar shows “ B3 * C3.” This stands for the
formula D3  B3 * C3. It is not necessary to enter D3,
since D3 is already identified as the address of the cell.
This formula is stored in the computer; it is not shown
in cell D3.
When the formula is entered, the program multiplies
the number in cell B3 (0.29) by the number in cell C3
(6) and displays the product (1.74) in cell D3.

Suppose that you clicked on cell C3 and changed the 6 to an 8. The entry in
cell D3 would change automatically to 2.32 ( 0.29 * 8). At the same time,
the entries in cells D8, D9, and D10 would also change automatically. The
entry in cell D8 is the result of a calculation involving the entry in cell D3.
The entry in cell D8 is used to calculate the entry in cell D9. And the entries
in cells D8 and D9 are used to calculate the entry in cell D10.

The following spreadsheet gives budget information for a class picnic.

Use the spreadsheet to answer the following questions.

1. What kind of information is shown 2. What information is shown in cell C7?
in column B?
3. Which cell shows the title of the 4. What information is shown in cell A5?
spreadsheet?
5. Which occupied cells do not hold 6. Which column holds formulas?
labels or formulas?
Check your answers on page 419.

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 Data and Probability

How to Use the Percent Circle

A compass is a device for drawing circles. You can also use
your Geometry Template to draw circles.
An arc is a piece of a circle. If you mark two points on a circle,
these points and the part of the circle between them form an arc.
The region inside a circle is called its interior.
A sector is a wedge-shaped piece of a circle and its interior.
A sector consists of two radii (singular: radius), one of the arcs
determined by their endpoints, and the part of the interior
of the circle bounded by the radii and the arc.
A circle graph is sometimes called a pie graph because it
looks like a pie that has been cut into several pieces. Each
“piece” is a sector of the circle.
The circle graph shows
You can use the Percent Circle on your Geometry Template the distribution of
to find what percent of the circle graph each sector represents. students in grades
1 to 5 at Elm School.
Here are two methods for using the Percent Circle.
Method 1: Direct Measure
♦ Place the center of the Percent Circle over the center of
the circle graph.
♦ Rotate the template so that the 0% mark is aligned with
one side (line segment) of the sector you are measuring.
♦ Read the percent at the mark on the Percent Circle
located over the other side of the sector. This tells what
percent the sector represents.
For example, the sector for first grade represents 20%.
Method 2: Difference Comparison
♦ Place the center of the Percent Circle over the center of
the circle graph.
♦ Note the percent reading for one side of the sector you
are measuring.
♦ Find the percent reading for the other side of the sector.
♦ Find the difference between these readings.
The sector for second grade represents 45% – 20%, or 25%.

What percents are represented by the other three sectors in the above circle graph?
Check your answers on page 419.

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Data and Probability

How to Draw a Circle Graph

Using a Percent Circle

Draw a circle graph to show the following information. The students in

Mr. Zajac’s class were asked to name their favorite colors: 9 students chose
blue, 7 students chose green, 4 students chose yellow, and 5 chose red.
Step 1: Find what percent of the total each part represents.
The total number of students who voted was
9  7  4  5  25.
• 9 out of 25 chose blue.
9

25
   36%, so 36% chose blue.
36
100
• 7 out of 25 chose green.
7

25
   28%, so 28% chose green.
28
100
• 4 out of 25 chose yellow.
4
25
   16%, so 16% chose yellow.
16
100
• 5 out of 25 chose red.
5
25
   20%, so 20% chose red.
20
100
Step 3
Step 2: Check that the sum of the percents is 100%.
36%  28%  16%  20%  100%
Step 3: Draw a circle. Then use the Percent Circle on the
Geometry Template to mark off the sectors.
• To mark off 36%, place the center of the
Percent Circle over the center of the circle
graph. Make a mark at 0% and 36%.
• To mark off 28%, make a mark at 64%
(36%  28%  64%), without moving the
Percent Circle.
• To mark off 16%, make a mark at 80%
(64%  16%  80%).
Step 4
• Check that the final sector represents 20%.
Step 4: Draw the sector lines (radii). Label each sector. Color the sectors.

Draw a circle graph to display the following information:

• The basketball team scored 30 points in one game.
• Frank scored 3 points. • Jill scored 6 points.
• Leah scored 6 points. • Dave scored 15 points.
Check your answer on page 419.

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 Data and Probability

How to Draw a Circle Graph

Using a Protractor

Draw a circle graph to show the following information: In the month of

April, there were 5 cloudy days, 6 sunny days, and 19 partly cloudy days.
Step 1: Find out what fraction or percent of the total each part represents.
April has 30 days.
• 5 out of 30 were cloudy days.
  1 , so 1 of the days were cloudy.
5
30 6 6
• 6 out of 30 were sunny days.
  1, so 1 of the days were sunny.
6
30 5 5
• 19 out of 30 were partly cloudy days.
19
   0.633 …  63.3%, so about 63.3% of the days were partly cloudy.
30
Step 2: Calculate the degree measure of the sector for
each piece of data.
• The number of cloudy days in April was 16 of the
total number of days. Therefore, the degree
measure of the sector for cloudy days is
1 of 360°. 1 of 360°  1 * 360°  60°.
6 6 6
• The number of sunny days in April was 15 of the
total number of days. Therefore, the degree
measure of the sector for sunny days
is 15 of 360°. 15 of 360°  15 * 360°  72°.
• The number of partly cloudy days in April was 63.3% of the total number of days.
Therefore, the degree measure of the sector for partly cloudy days is
63.3% of 360°. 0.633 ∗ 360°  228°, rounded to the nearest degree.
Step 3: Check that the sum of the degree measures of the sectors is 360°.
60°  72°  228°  360°
Step 4: Draw a circle. Use a protractor to draw 3 sectors with degree measures of 60°, 72°,
and 228°. Label each sector.

Favorite Subjects
Use your protractor to make a circle graph Subject Number of Students
to display the following information. Reading 3
Art 1
What is the degree measure of each sector, Math 6
rounded to the nearest degree? Music 3
Social Studies 2
Science 5

Check your answers on page 419.

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Data and Probability

Chance and Probability

Chance
Things that happen are called events. There are many
events that you can be sure about:
♦ You are certain that the sun will set today.
♦ It is impossible for you to grow to be 10 feet tall.
There are also many events that you cannot be sure about.
♦ You cannot be sure that you will get a letter tomorrow.
♦ You cannot be sure whether it will be sunny next Friday.
You sometimes talk about the chance that something will
happen. If Paul is a good chess player, you may say, “Paul
has a good chance of winning the game.” If Paul is a poor
player, you may say, “It is very unlikely that Paul will win.”
Probability
Sometimes a number is used to tell the chance of something
happening. This number is called a probability. It is a
number from 0 to 1. The closer a probability is to 1, the more
likely it is that an event will happen.
♦ A probability of 0 means the event is impossible. The
probability is 0 that you will live to the age of 150.
♦ A probability of 1 means that the event is certain. The
probability is 1 that the sun will rise tomorrow.
1
♦ A probability of 2 means that, in the long run, an event
will happen about 1 in 2 times (half of the time, or 50%
of the time). The probability that a tossed coin will land
1
heads up is 2. We often say that the coin has a “50-50
chance” of landing heads up.
A probability can be written as a fraction, a decimal, or
a percent. The Probability Meter is often used to record
probabilities. It is marked to show fractions, decimals,
and percents between 0 (or 0%) and 1 (or 100%).
The phrases printed on the bar of the Probability Meter
may be used to describe probabilities in words. For
example, suppose that the probability of snow tomorrow is
70%. The 70% mark falls within that part of the bar where
“LIKELY” is printed. So you can say that “Snow is likely
tomorrow,” instead of stating the probability as 70%.

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 Data and Probability

Calculating a Probability
Four common ways for finding probabilities are shown below.
Make a Guess
Vince guesses that he has a 40% chance (a 4 in 10 chance) of
returning home by 9 o’clock.
Conduct an Experiment
Elizabeth dropped 67 tacks: 48 landed point up and 19
landed point down. The fraction of tacks that landed
48
point up is 6
7.
Elizabeth estimates the probability that the next tack
48
she drops will land point up is 6
7 , or about 72%.
Use a Data Table
Hits 32
Kenny got 32 hits in his last 100 times at bat. He Walks 14
estimates the probability that he will get a hit the next Outs 54
32
time at bat is 
100 , or 32%. Total 100

Assume that All Possible Results Have the Same Chance

A standard die has 6 faces and is shaped like a cube. You can
1
assume that each face has the same 6 chance of landing up.
A 20-sided die has 20 faces and is shaped like a regular
1
icosahedron. You can assume that each face has the same 
20
chance of landing up.
A standard deck of playing cards has 52 cards. Suppose the
cards are shuffled and one card is drawn. You can assume that
1
each card has the same 5
2 chance of being drawn.
Suppose that a spinner is divided into 12 equal sections.
When you spin the spinner, you can assume that each section
1
has the same 1
2 chance of being landed on.
Naming a Probability
A spinner is divided into 10 equal sections, numbered 1 through 10.
Each of the following statements has the same meaning:
1
♦ The probability (chance) of landing on 4 is 10 .
♦ The probability (chance) of landing on 4 is 0.1.
♦ The probability (chance) of landing on 4 is 10%.
♦ The probability (chance) of landing on 4 is 1 out of 10.
♦ There is a 1 in 10 probability (chance) of landing on 4.
1
♦ If you spin many times, you can expect to land on 4 about 
10 of the time.

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Data and Probability

Equally Likely Outcomes

When a baby is born in
In solving probability problems, it is often useful to list all of the U.S., “boy” and “girl”
the possible results for a situation. Each possible result is are not equally likely
called an outcome. If all of the possible outcomes have the outcomes. About 51%
same probability, they are called equally likely outcomes. of babies are boys.

If you roll a 6-sided die, the number of dots on the face

that lands up may be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. There are six
possible outcomes. You can assume that each face of the
1
die has the same 6 chance of landing up. So, the outcomes
are equally likely.

The blue spinner is divided into 10 equal parts. If you

spin the spinner, it will land on one of the numbers 1
through 10. There are ten possible outcomes. You can
1
assume that each number has a 1 0 chance of being
landed on because the sections are equal parts of the
spinner. So, the outcomes are equally likely.

The red and blue spinner is divided into two sections. If

you spin the spinner, it will land either on red or on blue.
So red and blue are the two possible outcomes. The
outcomes are not equally likely because there is a greater
chance of landing on red than on blue

A Probability Formula
Finding the probability of an event is easy if all of the outcomes
are equally likely. Follow these steps:
If you are dealt 5 cards
1. List all of the possible outcomes. from a standard deck of
2. Look for any outcomes that will make the event happen. 52 playing cards, there
These outcomes are called favorable outcomes. are 2,598,960 possible
combinations of cards.
Circle each favorable outcome.
These combinations
3. Count the number of possible outcomes. Count the number of are equally likely. Each
favorable outcomes. The probability of the event is: combination has a
1
probability of  
2,598,960
number of favorable outcomes of being dealt.
number of possible outcomes
150 one hundred fifty
 Data and Probability

Amy, Beth, Carol, Dave, Edgar, Frank, George, and Hank

are on a camping trip. They decide to choose a leader. Each
child writes his or her name on an index card. The cards are
put into a paper bag and mixed. One card will be drawn, and
the child whose name is drawn will become leader. Find the
probability that a girl will be selected.
What is the event you want to find the probability of? Draw a girl’s name.
How many possible outcomes are there? Eight. Any of 8 names might be drawn.
Are the outcomes equally likely? Yes
Names were written on identical cards and the cards were mixed in the bag.
1
Each name has the same 8 chance of being drawn.
Which of the possible outcomes are favorable outcomes? Amy, Beth, and Carol
Drawing any one of these 3 names will make the event happen.
List the possible outcomes and circle the favorable outcomes.
Amy Beth Carol Dave Edgar Frank George Hank
number of favorable outcomes 3
The probability of drawing a girl’s name equals  8.
number of possible outcomes

Use 1 each of the number cards 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 14, and 20.

Draw 1 card without looking. What is the probability that
the number is less than 10?
Event: Get a number less than 10.
Possible outcomes: 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 14, and 20
The card is drawn without looking. So the outcomes are equally likely.
Favorable outcomes: 1, 4, 6, and 8 1 4 6 8 10 14 20
The probability of getting a number less than 10 equals
number of favorable outcomes 4
 7, or 0.571, or 57.1%.
number of possible outcomes

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Data and Probability

Listing all of the possible outcomes is sometimes confusing.

Study the example below.

What are the possible outcomes for the spinner shown here?
The spinner is divided into 10 equal sections. When you spin the spinner,
it may land on any one of those 10 sections. So, there are 10 possible
outcomes. But how do you list the 10 sections?
If you include both the number and the color in your list it will look like this:
1 blue 2 red 3 yellow 4 blue 5 orange 6 yellow 7 red 8 yellow 9 blue 10 orange
If you list only the number for each section, it will look like this:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

The short list of numbers is good enough. If you know the number, you can always
look at the spinner to find the color that goes with that number.

What is the probability that the spinner shown above will land on
a prime number?
Event: Land on a prime number.
Possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
The sections are equal parts of the spinner, so the outcomes are equally likely.
Favorable outcomes: the prime numbers 2, 3, 5, and 7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
The probability of landing on a prime number equals
number of favorable outcomes 4
 10 , or 0.4, or 40%.
number of possible outcomes

What is the probability that the spinner shown above will land on a blue or
yellow section that has an even number?
The possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10.
The favorable outcomes are the sections that have an even number and have the color blue
or yellow. Only three sections meet these conditions: the sections numbered 4, 6, and 8.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
The probability of landing on a section that has an even number and is blue or
yellow equals
number of favorable outcomes 3
 10 , or 0.3, or 30%.
number of possible outcomes

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 Data and Probability

In some problems, there may be several outcomes that look exactly the same.

Two red blocks and 3 blue blocks are placed in a bag. All of
the blocks are cubes of the same size. One block is drawn
without looking. What is the probability of drawing a red block?
What is the event you want to find the probability of? Draw a red block.
How many possible outcomes are there? Five
It is true that the red blocks look the same and the blue blocks look the same. But there
are 5 different blocks in the bag. So when you draw a block from the bag, there are
5 possible results or outcomes.
When you list the possible outcomes, be sure to include each of the 5 blocks in your list.
red red blue blue blue
Are the outcomes equally likely? Yes. All 5 blocks are cubes of the same size.
1
We can assume that each block has the same 5 chance of being drawn.
Which of the possible outcomes in your list are favorable outcomes?
The 2 red outcomes. Drawing a red block will make the event happen.
Circle the favorable outcomes. red red blue blue blue
number of favorable outcomes 2
The probability of drawing a red block equals  5.
number of possible outcomes

A bag contains 1 green, 2 blue, and 3 red counters. The

counters are the same, except for color. One counter is drawn.
What is the probability of drawing a blue counter?
Event: Draw a blue counter.
Possible outcomes: green, blue, blue, red, red, red
The counters are the same, except for color.
So, the 6 outcomes are equally likely.
Favorable outcomes: blue, blue green blue blue red red red
number of favorable outcomes 2 1
The probability of drawing a blue counter equals  6, or 3.
number of possible outcomes

Six red, 4 green, and 3 blue blocks are placed in a bag. The blocks are the same,
except for color. One block is drawn without looking.
Find the probability of each event.
1. Draw a green block. 2. Draw a block that is not green. 3. Draw a blue block.
4. Draw a red block. 5. Draw a block that is not red. 6. Draw any block.
Check your answers on page 419.

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Data and Probability

Tree Diagrams
The diagram at the right represents a maze. Without retracing
their steps, people walk through the maze, taking paths at
random without any pattern or preference. Some people end
up in Room A; some end up in Room B.
The diagrams in the example below represent this maze.
Notice that they look like upside-down trees.
Tree diagrams like those below can help in
analyzing probability situations. Tree diagrams are
especially useful in probability situations that
consist of two or more choices or stages. In a tree
diagram, the branches represent different paths,
possibilities, or cases.
Tree diagrams can help answer questions about a maze.

Suppose 40 people walk through the maze at the top of the page.
How many can be expected to end up in Room A? In Room B?
Step 1: In the top box of the tree diagram, record the
number of people (40) who reach the first
intersection where the path divides.
Step 2: The path divides. Since there is an equal chance
of selecting any one of the next paths, an equal
number of people should select each path. Write
10 in each box in the second row of boxes.
1
 of 40 is 10.
4
Step 3: Each path divides at the next intersection.
Again, an equal number of people should
select each of the next paths. Write 5 in the
next set of boxes.
1
 of 10 is 5.
2
Step 4: Add to find how many people reach each
room. Five boxes are labeled A, representing
exits into Room A. 25 people end up in Room
A. Three boxes are labeled B, representing exits
into Room B. 15 people end up in Room B.

So, 25 people can be expected to end up in Room

A and 15 people can be expected to end up in
Room B.

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 Data and Probability

A different kind of tree diagram can help find probabilities.

The tree diagram at the right represents the maze on page 154.
The branching paths are shown, but there are no boxes. You
can use this kind of tree diagram to calculate probabilities.

Find the probability of ending up in Room A and the

probability of ending up in Room B.
Step 1: At the first place where the path divides, there is an equal
chance of selecting each path leading from it. Write this
probability next to each path. There are four paths,
1
so the probability of taking any one path is 4.
Step 2: Each of these paths divides at the next intersection.
Again, an equal number of people should select each of
the next paths. Each path divides into two paths, so Step 1
1
the probability of taking any one path is 2. Write the
appropriate probability next to each path.
Step 3: There are 8 exits. To find the probability of reaching a
particular exit, multiply the probabilities of taking the
paths leading to that exit.
For any exit, the probability of taking the first path to it is
1 1
. The probability of the next path is . So, the probability
4 2
1 1 1 1 1
of reaching a particular exit is 2 of 4  2 * 4  8.
Step 4: Add to find the probability of entering each room. Steps 2 and 3
1
There are 5 exits to Room A, each with a probability of .
8
There are 3 exits to Room B, each with a probability of 1.
8
1 1 1 1 1 5
So, the probability of entering Room A is 
8  
8  
8  
8  8, or 8.
1 1 1 3
The probability of entering Room B is 
8  
8  8, or 8.
5 3
Note that the sum of all the final probabilities is 1 because 
8  
8  1.

The map shows the roads from the town Alpha. Suppose
you start in Alpha and drive south. When the road divides,
you choose the next road at random. Draw a tree diagram
to help you find the probability of getting from Alpha:
1. to Cisco. 2. to Ceeville. 3. to Center. 4. to Cedar.
Check your answers on page 420.

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Data and Probability

Tree Diagrams and the Multiplication

Counting Principle
Many situations require two or more choices. Tree diagrams
can be used to count the number of different ways to make
those choices.
For example, suppose Vince is buying a new shirt. He must
choose among three colors—white, blue, and green. He must
also decide between long or short sleeves. How many different
combinations of color and sleeve length are there?
To count the different combinations and see what they are,
make a tree diagram like the one at the right.
♦ The 3 top branches of the diagram are labeled white, white blue green

blue, and green to show the color choices.

♦ The 2 branches below each color show the sleeve-length
long short long short long short
choices that are possible.
Each possible way to choose a shirt is found by following a path
from the top to the bottom of the diagram. One possible choice
is shown in italics: green-long. Counting shows that there are
six different paths. Six different shirt choices are possible.
Multiplication is used to solve many types of counting problems
that involve two or more choices.

Multiplication Counting Principle

Suppose you can make a first choice in m ways and a second Cases with 3 or more
choice in n ways. There are m * n ways of making the first choices are counted in the
choice followed by the second choice. same way.
Suppose you can make
the first choice in x ways,
Vince has pants in 4 different colors and shirts
the second choice in y
in 8 different colors. How many different color ways, and the third choice
combinations for pants and shirts can Vince in z ways. Then there are
choose from? x * y * z different ways
to make the 3 choices.
Use the Multiplication Counting Principle: 4 * 8  32.
There are 32 different color combinations that Vince
could choose from.

Draw a tree diagram that shows all 32 combinations for the above example.
Check your answer on page 420.

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