Bharat Barometer

(Nov’23)

Varun Lohchab
[email protected]
+91 22 6171 7334

Amit Kumar, CFA

[email protected]
+91 22 6171 7354
Economic indicators-a snapshot
Macroeconomic indicators (% YoY growth) Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
1 Total GST collection 28% 26% 17% 11% 15% 13% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 13%
2 Consumer price index (CPI) 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5% 7% 7% 5% 5%
3 Core CPI (CPI ex food & fuel) 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4%
4 Wholesale price index (WPI) 12% 11% 9% 6% 5% 5% 4% 1% -1% -4% -4% -1% -1% 0% -0.5%
5 Unemployment-Urban (YoY bps change) -21 -93 -3 72 79 41 35 31 106 90 77 -16 52 123 110
6 Unemployment-Rural (YoY bps change) 4 -21 28 120 16 60 -115 57 53 30 68 163 -57 37 263
7 PMI Manufacturing* 56.2 55.1 55.3 55.7 57.8 55.4 55.3 56.4 57.2 58.7 57.8 57.7 58.6 57.5 55.5
8 PMI services* 57.2 54.3 55.1 56.4 58.5 57.2 59.4 57.8 62.0 61.2 58.5 62.3 60.1 61.0 58.4
9 PMI composite* 58.2 55.1 55.5 56.7 59.4 57.5 59.0 58.4 61.6 61.6 59.4 61.9 60.9 61.0 58.4

External (% YoY growth) Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23
10 Exports of goods 11% 5% -12% 10% -3% 2% 0% -6% -13% -10% -19% -10% 4% -3%
11 Imports of goods 37% 13% 8% 7% 1% -1% -5% -5% -14% -7% -17% -17% -3% -15%
12 Export of services 30% 35% 24% 31% 20% 29% 29% 13% 7% 8% 3% 8% 8% -3%
13 Import of services 28% 29% 16% 22% 6% 12% 15% 10% -3% 2% -3% -2% -1% -10%
14 FDI inflows -67% -40% -18% -53% 25% -41% -45% -54% -38% -75% -49% -64% -187% NA
15 FII inflows 138% -137% 134% 1973% 79% 30% 94% 134% 157% 230% 228% 780% -67% -60%

Industrial activity (% YoY growth) Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
16 E way bill generated 19% 24% 5% 32% 17% 20% 18% 16% 12% 20% 16% 16% 19% 10% 30%
17 Rail freight tonnage 8% 9% 1% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 2% -2% 2% 7% 7% 9%
18 Cargo handled at airports -1% 0% -15% -2% -6% -4% 2% -1% 0% 0% -1% -1% 7% 0% NA
19 Cargo traffic at major ports 9% 15% 3% 2% 10% 12% 12% 3% 1% 3% -2% 4% 4% 0% NA
20 IIP- mining -4% 5% 3% 10% 10% 9% 5% 7% 5% 6% 8% 11% 12% 12% NA
21 IIP-manufacturing 0% 2% -6% 7% 4% 5% 6% 2% 5% 6% 3% 5% 9% 4% NA
22 IIP-electricity 1% 12% 1% 13% 10% 13% 8% -2% -1% 1% 4% 8% 15% 10% NA
23 Power generation 1% 12% 1% 13% 10% 13% 8% -2% -1% 1% 4% 8% 15% 10% 19%
24 Coal offtake (except Lignite) 3% 1% -5% 5% 5% 7% 2% 4% 8% 4% 4% 11% 17% 12% 15%
25 Consumption of petroleum products 15% 8% 6% 14% 3% 4% 7% 9% 1% 13% 5% 3% 8% 8% 4%
26 Cement production 2% 13% -4% 30% 10% 5% 8% 0% 12% 16% 10% 7% 20% 5% NA
27 Finished steel consumption 17% 12% 11% 13% 16% 8% 15% 15% 8% 9% 17% 16% 16% 17% 15%
28 Consumption of natural gas (domestic & RLNG) -2% -8% -11% -5% -6% 14% 4% 3% 12% 10% 18% 9% 23% 24% NA
*Figures mentioned are absolute values Source: CMIE, MOSPI, RBI, AMFI, CDSL, HSIE Research

2
Economic indicators-a snapshot
Demand & consumption (% YoY growth) Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
29 Total vehicles registered 8% 7% 48% 19% -6% 14% 17% 15% -3% 11% 10% 11% 9% 21% -7%
30 Passenger vehicle sales 19% 68% 27% 27% 11% 20% 8% 6% 9% 11% 2% 4% 12% 5% 17%
31 Telecom subscriber base -3% -1% -2% -2% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% NA NA NA
32 Broadband subscriber base 0% 3% 3% 3% 5% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% NA NA NA
33 First year premium collection-life insurance 18% 17% 15% 30% 10% 20% -17% -13% -30% -4% 18% -29% -18% -16% 8%
34 Gross premium underwritten-nonlife 12% 3% 19% 22% 15% 19% 20% 11% 21% 18% 15% 14% -4% 29% NA
35 Rail passengers traffic 114% 88% 62% 51% 41% 64% 30% 20% 20% 18% 12% 10% 9% 4% NA
36 Airport passenger traffic 73% 62% 40% 22% 23% 101% 64% 27% 26% 19% 20% 26% 23% 19% NA
37 Foreign tourist arrival in India 437% 364% 243% 191% 204% 331% 259% 132% 54% 41% 24% 19% 29% 21% NA
38 Urban employment 1% 0% 1% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 5% 11% 8% 8%
39 Credit card transactions 29% 33% 19% 17% 21% 32% 23% 18% 16% 15% 15% 18% 19% 11% NA
40 Debit card transactions -5% -5% -8% -10% -9% -6% -6% -10% -13% -14% -15% -16% -11% -16% NA
41 CMIE consumer sentiment index: Rural* 74.8 79.4 83.2 82.5 81.4 85.2 89.4 90.9 94.0 94.7 96.4 98.5 96.0 100.7 103.1
42 CMIE consumer sentiment index: Urban* 68.2 75.2 80.5 79.0 77.7 80.5 86.0 90.2 92.2 92.7 95.0 92.8 92.3 95.8 98.5
Banking & money flow (% YoY growth) Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
43 M3 money supply 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 5% 10% 13% 11% 11% 11% 11%
44 currency with public 8% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4%
45 Value of retail payment transactions 35% 37% 27% 32% 28% 29% 28% 26% 21% 24% 21% 24% 27% 21% 24%
46 Volume of retail payment transactions 63% 66% 56% 57% 55% 55% 54% 47% 46% 43% 45% 47% 49% 45% 44%
47 No. of UPI transactions 85% 86% 73% 75% 71% 74% 66% 61% 59% 58% 59% 58% 61% 56% 56%
48 No. of IMPS transactions 23% 20% 12% 12% 10% 8% 6% 1% 5% 3% 3% 6% 5% 2% 2%
49 Value of Fastag collections 38% 41% 33% 46% 34% 34% 29% 24% 22% 24% 21% 20% 22% 20% 24%
50 Volume of Fastag collections 35% 34% 32% 33% 29% 30% 18% 13% 15% 17% 14% 11% 13% 15% 13%
51 Outstanding credit of SCBs 14% 19% 16% 16% 15% 16% 16% 15% 16% 15% 18% 20% 20% 16% 20%
52 Outstanding deposits of SCBs 10% 12% 9% 10% 9% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 15% 13% 13% 10% 13%
Rural indicators (% YoY growth) Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
53 Rural employment -1% -1% -1% -1% 0% 1% 3% 2% 2% 0% 4% 1% 6% 5% 5%
54 Reservoir level live storage 34% 11% 12% 10% 1% 0% -4% -4% -2% -3% -2% -15% -22% -16% -19%
55 Sale quantity of fertilisers 18% 7% 18% 20% 14% 18% 10% 19% -14% 2% 2% 4% 3% 6% NA
56 2 wheelers sales units 9% 7% -3% 7% -5% -7% -4% -1% 2% 8% -6% -9% 0% 1% 17%
57 Tractor sales units -1% 19% 4% 4% 19% 16% 12% 10% -13% -2% -1% 0% -4% -16% -6%

Capital market (% YoY growth) Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
58 No. of active client accounts (NSDL & CDSL) 49% 46% 41% 37% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 25% 25% 26% 26% 26% 27%
59 Net AUM of mutual funds 7% 5% 6% 8% 6% 4% 5% 5% 9% 16% 25% 23% 19% 21% 18%
60 Net inflow of mutual funds (equity) -29% 62% 80% -81% -71% -16% -20% -28% -59% -83% -44% -14% 231% 0% 113%
61 NSE trading volume -3% -7% -37% 22% 30% -27% -19% -14% -31% 23% 60% 88% 61% 64% 76%
62 India VIX* 18.7 20.0 15.8 13.8 14.9 16.9 14.0 12.9 10.9 12.0 10.8 10.4 12.1 11.5 11.8
63 Value of SIP contributions 28% 25% 24% 21% 20% 20% 20% 16% 16% 20% 20% 26% 25% 24% 30%
*Figures mentioned are absolute values Source: CMIE, MOSPI, RBI, AMFI, CDSL, HSIE Research 3
Macroeconomic indicators

GST collection showing sigs of growth post a long pause Mfg & services both moderating but in expansionary zone

Total GST collection (% YoY growth) PMI-Mfg Vs services

30% PMI Manufacturing PMI services
25% 65

20%
60
15%
10% 55
5%
0% 50

Apr-23
Dec-22
Sep-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23
Sep-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Dec-22
Nov-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
Apr-23

May-23
Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Jul-23

Oct-23
Feb-23

CPI & WPI continue to soften; WPI in deflationary territory Unemployment resurging due to subdued monsoon

CPI & WPI (% YoY growth) % Unemployment (YoY bps change)

Consumer price index (CPI) Wholesale price index (WPI) Unemployment-Urban (%) (bps) Unemployment-Rural (%) (bps)
15%
300
10% 200
5% 100
0% 0

-5% -100
-200
-10%
Sep-22

Jul-23

Sep-23
Aug-22

Dec-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
Apr-23
Jan-23

May-23
Nov-22

Mar-23
Oct-22

Oct-23
Feb-23
Apr-23
Dec-22
Sep-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Source: CMIE, MOSPI, PIB, GST council, HSIE Research

4
External sector

Exports showing clear signs of softening due to global slowdown Imports slowing down too as global economy struggles

%YoY Exports growth-goods & services %YoY Imports growth-goods & services
Exports of goods Export of services Imports of goods Import of services
40% 60%

40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
-20% -20%

-40% -40%

Apr-23
Sep-22

Dec-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23
Apr-23
Sep-22

Dec-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

FDI inflows decline as global economies slow down amid high inflation Jul-23 FII flows taking breather after a period of sustained momentum

5,000
FDI inflows (USD Mn) FII inflows (USD Mn)
10,000
4,000
8,000
3,000
6,000
2,000
4,000
1,000
2,000
0 0
-1,000 -2,000
-2,000 -4,000
Sep-22
Aug-22

Dec-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
Jan-23

Apr-23

May-23
Nov-22
Oct-22

Mar-23

Jul-23
Feb-23

Jan-23

Mar-23
Sep-22

Dec-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22
Oct-22

Oct-23
Feb-23

Jul-23
Source: CMIE, MOSPI, RBI, ministry of commerce & industry, CDSL,HSIE Research

5
Industrial activity
E way bill generation accelerates as festive demand of goods rise Power generation and coal offtake continue to grow

No. of E way bill generated (% YoY growth) Power generation Vs coal offtake (% YoY growth)
35% Power generation Coal offtake (except Lignite)
30% 30%
25%
20%
20%
15% 10%
10%
0%
5%
0% -10%

Apr-23
Dec-22
Sep-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23
Apr-23

Sep-23
Sep-22

Dec-22

Aug-23
Aug-22

Jun-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

Oct-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23
Petroleum products consumption growth moderates due to high base Steel consumption growth remains robust but takes breather

Consumption of petroleum products- % YoY growth Finished steel consumption-% YoY growth
20% 18%
16%
15%
14%
10% 12%
10%
5%
8%
0%
6%
Sep-23
Sep-22

Jul-23

Aug-23
Aug-22

Dec-22

Jun-23
Apr-23
Jan-23

May-23
Nov-22

Oct-23
Oct-22

Mar-23
Feb-23

Apr-23

Sep-23
Sep-22

Dec-22

Aug-23
Aug-22

Jun-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

Oct-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23
Source: CMIE, MOSPI, GST council, JPC, PPAC, HSIE Research

6
Demand & consumption
Passenger vehicle sales grow on the back of rising demand of SUVs Air passengers traffic surpasses pre covid levels; Rail yet to achieve

Vehicles registered Vs passenger car sales (% YoY growth) Air passengers traffic (Mn nos) Rail passengers traffic (Mn nos.)(RHS)
Total vehicles registered Passenger vehicle sales
80% 40 800

60% 30 600
40%
20 400
20%
10 200
0%

-20% 0 0

Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22

Aug-23
May-22
May-19

May-20

May-21

May-23
Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Feb-19

Feb-20

Feb-21

Feb-22

Feb-23
Jan-23

Mar-23
Dec-22
Sep-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22
Oct-22

Oct-23
Feb-23

Jul-23
-10 -200

Credit card reflects robust growth; debit card declines post UPI adoption Non life strong; life struggling to regain growth post regulatory change

No. of credit & debit card transactions (% YoY growth) Life & non-life premium (% YoY growth)
Credit card transactions Debit card transactions First year premium collection-life insurance
40% Gross premium underwritten-nonlife
40%

20% 20%

0%
0%
-20%

-20% -40%
Apr-23
Sep-22

Dec-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Apr-23
Sep-22

Dec-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23
Source: CMIE,SIAM, IRDA, ministry of railways, DGCA, MOSPI, HSIE Research

7
Banking and money flow

Money supply growth normalizes to nominal GDP growth levels UPI adoption at meteoric pace pushing IMPS into obsolescence

M3 money supply (% YoY growth) No. of UPI & IMPS transactions (% YoY growth)
15% UPI transactions IMPS transactions
100%
10% 80%
60%
5% 40%
20%
0% 0%

Apr-23
Dec-22
Sep-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23
Apr-23

Sep-23
Sep-22

Dec-22

Aug-23
Aug-22

Jun-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23
Fastag collections look up as adoption of digital payment increases Credit and deposit growth healthy in the recent month

Fastag collections (% YoY growth) Credit & deposit base of Banks (% YoY growth)
50% Outstanding credit of SCBs Outstanding deposits of SCBs
25%
40%
20%
30%
15%
20%
10%
10% 5%

0% 0%

Apr-23

Sep-23
Sep-22

Dec-22

Aug-23
Aug-22

Jun-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23
Apr-23

Sep-23
Sep-22

Dec-22

Aug-23
Aug-22

Jun-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Source: CMIE, RBI, HSIE Research

8
Rural indicators
Rising 2 wheeler and tractor sales indicating early signs of rural recovery Reservoir level decline stabilizes but remains weak due to rain deficit

2 wheelers & tractor sales (% YoY growth) Reservoir level live storage (% YoY growth)
2 wheelers sales Tractor sales 40%
30%
30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0%
0%
-10%
-10% -20%
-20% -30%

Apr-23
Dec-22
Sep-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23
Apr-23
Dec-22
Sep-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23
Rural employment grows in spite of poor rain led by services sector Muted growth in fertilizer sales as rain deficit continues

Rural employment (% YoY growth) Sale of fertilisers (% YoY growth)

8% 30%
6% 20%
4% 10%

2% 0%

0% -10%

-2% -20%
Apr-23
Sep-22

Dec-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Apr-23
Sep-22

Dec-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23
Source: CMIE, CPH survey, SIAM, MOSPI, Labor bureau survey. HSIE Research

9
Capital market
Demat account addition continues unabated Equity MF inflows strong post a lull period

Active demat accounts (% YoY growth) Net inflow of equity mutual funds (INR Bn)
60% 300

50% 250

40% 200

30% 150

20% 100

10% 50

0% 0

Apr-23
Dec-22
Sep-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23
Apr-23

Sep-23
Sep-22

Dec-22

Aug-23
Aug-22

Jun-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23
Oct-22

Strong trading volume growth sustains led by rising no. of investors India VIX remains benign as equity markets stride ahead post march’23

NSE trading volume (% YoY growth) India VIX

100% 25
80%
20
60%
40% 15
20%
0% 10
-20%
5
-40%
-60% 0

Apr-23

Sep-23
Sep-22

Dec-22
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23
Apr-23
Dec-22
Sep-22

Sep-23
Aug-22

Jun-23

Aug-23
May-23
Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Oct-22

Feb-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Source: NSE, AMFI, CMIE, MOSPI, HSIE Research

10
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