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Governor - Address - CIBN - AnnualDinner - 24nov - Ver2 Lagos

The keynote address was delivered by Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, at the 58th Annual Bankers' Dinner hosted by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria. The address discussed the state of the global and domestic economies, noting rising inflation and tighter monetary policies worldwide in response to various conflicts and supply chain issues. For Nigeria, challenges include adverse global shocks, domestic imbalances, and a lack of economic diversification away from oil which has weakened government finances.

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Governor - Address - CIBN - AnnualDinner - 24nov - Ver2 Lagos

The keynote address was delivered by Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, at the 58th Annual Bankers' Dinner hosted by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria. The address discussed the state of the global and domestic economies, noting rising inflation and tighter monetary policies worldwide in response to various conflicts and supply chain issues. For Nigeria, challenges include adverse global shocks, domestic imbalances, and a lack of economic diversification away from oil which has weakened government finances.

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CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA

KEYNOTE ADDRESS

BY

Mr. Olayemi Cardoso


Governor,
Central Bank of Nigeria

Delivered at the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) 58th Annual


Bankers’ Dinner and Grand Finale of the Institute’s 60 th Anniversary.
Eko Hotels & Suites, Victoria Island, Lagos, November 24, 2023.

1
Protocols

1. Good evening distinguished guests, I am truly delighted to be here


with you tonight at this esteemed Chartered Institute of Bankers of
Nigeria Gala evening. It is an immense honor to to deliver the
keynote address on this momentous occasion—the Grand Finale of
the Institute's 60th Anniversary. This event holds great significance
as it symbolizes the Institute's enduring legacy and the successful
transition of leadership from one capable set of individuals to
another. I would like to express my heartfelt appreciation to the
President and Chairman of Council of CIBN, the members of the
Dinner Planning Committee, and the 60th Anniversary Committee
for their exceptional stewardship and leadership. To all the members
of CIBN, I extend my warmest congratulations on this milestone, and
I wish every one of you a delightful evening filled with joyous
celebrations.

2. Permit me to make special mention of His Excellency, Vice President


Kashim Shettima (GCON), who is also completely at home in this
gathering as a former banker before he made his foray into public
service and has, through his career, shown strong leadership on
developing Nigeria’s economy.

2
3. Distinguished guests, allow me to take a moment to delve into the
rich history of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN).
The origins of this esteemed institution can be traced back to
November 28, 1963, when a group of 124 visionary bankers came
together and passed a resolution to establish an Institute that would
promote banking education in Nigeria and foster a sense of
camaraderie among professional bankers. Over the past 60 years,
the Institute has flourished, leaving behind a legacy of remarkable
achievements.

4. Today, the Nigerian banking industry stands as a testament to our


homegrown excellence, with a lineage of accomplished bankers who
have left their indelible mark not only in Nigeria but also across
Africa, Europe, and America. We have witnessed banks initiated by
CIBN members grow from humble beginnings into leading
institutions that can proudly hold their own on the global stage.
Moreover, countless CIBN professionals have risen through the ranks
of banking to occupy towering positions of corporate leadership and
public service.

3
5. I recently had the privilege of meeting a young banker who shared
her journey of joining the institute as a fresh graduate and how the
CIBN's commitment to professionalism and ethics shaped her career.
She spoke passionately about the transformative power of the
institute's programs and how it instilled in her a sense of purpose and
dedication to serving her clients and community. Her story reminded
me of the human aspect of the banking industry and the importance
of organizations like the CIBN in nurturing talent and fostering an
environment of integrity and innovation.

6. This annual event is critical as it is an opportunity for us at the CBN


to interact with major players and the business communities and
share our perspectives on burning issues affecting the banking and
financial services sector, and the economy in general. Importantly, it
avails key industry operators a platform to gain knowledge of
regulators ’views on the underlying factors driving the state of our
economy, the policy focus that would shape macroeconomic and
financial markets conditions, and our understanding of the short-to-
medium-term outlook of the economy.

4
Global Economy

7. Distinguished Ladies and gentlemen. The global economy, much like


our domestic economy, often experiences cyclical patterns. The
recent Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with the ongoing disruptions
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, has had severe consequences for
global supply chains, particularly in agriculture and energy sectors.
These disruptions have resulted in a significant decline in commodity
prices and international trade. The sustained high crude oil prices,
exceeding $80 per barrel, have posed challenges for import-
dependent countries like Nigeria in managing prices.

8. The prospects of a global economic recovery have been further


dampened by the ongoing crisis between Israel and Hamas. The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that these conflicts have
serious implications for global economic performance and leave little
room for policy errors. In response to the inflationary pressures
caused by the surge in energy prices resulting from the Russia-
Ukraine conflict, monetary authorities worldwide have raised policy
interest rates, leading to tighter global financial market conditions
and significant outflows of funds from emerging market countries.

5
These developments have led to a strengthening of the US dollar,
exacerbating inflationary pressures while weakening currencies and
depleting external reserves in many emerging market countries. As a
result, several central banks in emerging markets and developing
economies have implemented restrictive policies to contain rising
inflation and reduce capital outflows.

9. The widespread tightening of monetary policy, aimed at curbing


inflation, has restrained economic activity and suppressed growth.
According to the IMF, global growth is projected to slow from 3.5
percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well
below the historical average of 3.8 percent (2000-2019). Advanced
economies are expected to experience a slowdown from 2.6 percent
in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024 as the impact
of policy tightening takes hold. Meanwhile, emerging market and
developing economies are projected to have a modest decline in
growth from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in both 2023 and
2024.

6
10. Global inflation is forecasted to steadily decline from 8.7 percent in
2022 to 6.9 percent in 2023 and 5.8 percent in 2024, thanks to tighter
monetary policy measures and lower international commodity
prices. However, core inflation is expected to decline more gradually,
and inflation is not anticipated to return to target levels until 2025 in
most cases. It is crucial to note that monetary policy actions and
frameworks play a vital role in anchoring inflation expectations
during these challenging times.

11. In response to these challenges, countries worldwide have adopted


various conventional monetary policy measures. Available data
indicates a gradual recovery in output in the US, UK, and some
emerging market economies. GDP growth in the US, UK, and
emerging market economies reached 2.2 percent, 1.4 percent, and
3.4 percent, respectively, in the second quarter of 2023, compared
to the same period in 2022. In Africa, countries such as South Africa,
Ghana, Egypt, and Kenya saw growth rates of 0.6 percent, 3.2
percent, 3.9 percent, and 5.4 percent, respectively, in the second
quarter of 2023, thanks to complementary fiscal and monetary policy
measures.

7
12. Furthermore, inflation rates have continued to moderate in
advanced economies like the United States, the United Kingdom, and
emerging market economies. This is largely due to the
responsiveness of interest rates to adjustments in monetary policy
parameters. However, countries such as Turkey, and Argentina have
experienced upward inflationary pressures, mainly due to legacy
supply shocks, despite several policy rate adjustments.

13. Considering these developments, it is evident that economic


fundamentals play a crucial role in the effectiveness of monetary
policy actions in addressing macroeconomic challenges. Therefore, it
is imperative that we build a robust institutional framework to
support monetary policy in achieving its objectives of ensuring price
and monetary stability, which in turn guarantee financial system
stability.

Domestic Economy

14. Considering recent developments within our domestic economy, it is


evident that we are facing significant macroeconomic and social
challenges. These challenges stem from a variety of factors, including
adverse global shocks, unfavorable domestic imbalances, structural

8
rigidities, and the unintended consequences of certain corrective
policy measures implemented to restore and realign our
macroeconomic landscape.

15. In recent years, the continuous decline in Nigeria's crude oil


production has further weakened our already inadequate economic
diversification. This has led to a decline in government revenue and
foreign exchange inflows, while simultaneously witnessing a growth
in public expenditures and a deterioration in macroeconomic
indicators, which has constrained our policy options. Consequently,
we have seen the fiscal deficit and public debt increase, placing
additional strain on external reserves and contributing to exchange
rate instability.

16. The GDP growth rate has remained modest, declining to 3.1 percent
in 2022 from 3.4 percent in 2021, and further dropping to 2.5 percent
in the second quarter of 2023. The projection for 2023 stands at 2.9
percent. Despite this, the non-oil sector continues to be the main
driver of growth, expanding by 3.58 percent in the second quarter of
2023 compared to 2.77 percent in the first quarter. This growth is
attributed to the services, agriculture, and industrial sectors, which
contributed 4.20 percent, 1.94 percent, and 1.50 percent,

9
respectively, to overall output growth in Q2 2023. Looking ahead, a
growth rate of 2.36 percent is expected in the third quarter of 2023,
with an anticipated increase to 3.97 percent in the fourth quarter as
various reforms take effect.

17. The domestic factors affecting Nigeria's economic performance span


a wide range, encompassing both social and economic aspects.
Insecurity remains a pressing issue, affecting the agricultural,
industrial, and services sectors simultaneously. The persistently high
levels of insecurity have resulted in decreased national output and
productivity, as many farmers have been unable to access their
farmlands, disrupting supply chains and major economic activities.
This has led to food shortages and inflation in various parts of the
country.
18. Infrastructure constraints also pose significant challenges,
undermining the production chain and distribution network of goods
and services. Additionally, issues such as business bottlenecks and a
culture of poor service delivery, particularly within the public sector,
further hinder the fortunes of the Nigerian economy. Addressing
these challenges requires a well-crafted structural policy,
complemented by coordinated monetary and fiscal policies.

10
19. Permit me to pause here, and recognize the Hon. Minister of Finance
and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Olawale Edun who
also emerged from the banking industry and with whom we are
collaborating with on these critical issues on a continuous and
regular basis.

20. A thorough assessment of the economy reveals significant


challenges, including high and rising inflation, inadequate foreign
exchange supply, depreciation of the exchange rate, limited external
reserves, weakened output, and high unemployment. These
challenges have led to increased interest rates, discouraging
investments in productive activities. Within the banking system, high
inflation has affected asset quality and solvency ratios. Additionally,
the persistent depreciation of the naira poses a significant risk for
domestic banks with foreign exchange exposures.

Addressing the Challenges of the Banking System and the Economy

21. Distinguished Ladies and gentlemen, I understand that many of you


have concerns about the current state of our economy. I want to
assure you that while it is indeed a formidable challenge, it is not
insurmountable. With the right policy measures, we can overcome
these obstacles and pave the way for progress and prosperity. I am

11
confident and optimistic that by taking appropriate corrective
actions and strategic steps, we can restore macroeconomic stability
and address fundamental flaws.

22. The removal of petrol subsidy and the adoption of a floating


exchange rate, among other government policies, are anticipated to
have positive effects on the economy in the medium-term. These
measures are expected to enhance investor confidence, attract
capital inflows, stimulate domestic investment, and ultimately
improve the level of external reserves. Additionally, they are
expected to contribute to the stabilization of the domestic currency.

23. Indeed, despite the challenging global and domestic macroeconomic


environment, Nigeria's financial sector has demonstrated resilience
in 2023, with key indicators of financial soundness largely meeting
regulatory benchmarks. Stress tests conducted on the banking
industry also indicate its strength under mild-to-moderate scenarios
of sustained economic and financial stress, although there is room
for further strengthening and enhancing resilience to shocks.
Therefore, there is still much work to be done in fortifying the
industry for future challenges, a topic that I will delve into later in my
address.

12
24. In my recent speech at the 370th Bankers' Committee meeting, I
highlighted the economic agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's
administration. The administration, as outlined in the widely
circulated Policy Advisory Council report on the national economy
earlier this year, has set an ambitious goal of achieving a Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) of $1.0 trillion over the next seven years,
with clearly defined priority areas and strategies. Attaining this
substantial target necessitates sustainable and inclusive economic
growth at a significantly higher pace than current levels. The
administration has already commenced this journey through fiscal
reforms, including the removal of petrol subsidy and the unification
of the foreign exchange market rate.

25. Esteemed guests, considering the policy imperatives and the


projected economic growth, it is crucial for us to evaluate the
adequacy of our banking industry to serve the envisioned larger
economy. It is not just about the stability of the financial system in
the present moment, as we have already established that the current
assessment shows stability. However, we need to ask ourselves: Will
Nigerian banks have sufficient capital relative to the financial

13
system's needs in servicing a $1.0 trillion economy in the near
future? In my opinion, the answer is “No!” unless we take action.
Therefore, we must make difficult decisions regarding capital
adequacy. As a first step, we will be directing banks to increase their
capital.

26. Technology will continue to play a critical role in delivering financial


services and enhancing financial inclusion. However, recent
developments in the payment services landscape have raised
concerns regarding the use of technology and the existing licensing
and regulatory framework. We have observed that some licensees
are operating outside the approved activities, breaching the
boundaries set for them. Any intentional or unintended non-
compliance will be subject to sanctions, as operators have the
responsibility to ensure that they are licensed for the activities they
undertake.
27. Concurrently, as we conduct a comprehensive review of the licensing
framework for payment services, we will engage in extensive
consultations to develop a new regulatory and compliance
framework that is suitable for the technology-driven payment
services sector. Looking ahead for the industry, banks should
reassess the responsible banking framework to ensure that the
requirements are effectively integrated into their strategies. I am
14
aware that some banks have made commendable progress in this
regard. Furthermore, the Central Bank of Nigeria is taking steps to
enhance its in-house capacity so that it can assist other banks that
still have progress to make in implementing their sustainability
principles.

Human Stories

28. While macroeconomic indicators are valuable in assessing


performance, I am equally concerned about the well-being of the
average citizen.

29. The plight of the hardworking masses in our urban centers and
villages is a pressing concern. We must ask ourselves if there is a
potential future where a brilliant and motivated teenager from
anywhere in Nigeria could attend a future anniversary dinner instead
of being drawn into outlawed militant groups or extremist
ideologies. Likewise, recognizing the pivotal role that women play as
critical players in the economy, one cannot overlook the significant
impact that providing them with opportunities can have on Nigeria’s
economic advancement. To address this, we need to develop
stronger frameworks for measuring the human condition and ensure

15
that policymakers and business leaders pay as much attention to
these measures as they do to macroeconomic indicators. This means
tracking indicators such as access to food, shelter, and healthcare, as
well as education and skills training opportunities.

30. We must also monitor daily wage rates in lower-income jobs, access
to basic amenities like electricity, clean water, and sanitation
facilities, and availability of public transportation. From a financial
inclusion standpoint, we should track access to financial services,
including consumer credit, and ultimately, the ability to finance
home ownership on a large scale. By having accurate data on the
human condition and implementing appropriate policies based on
this data, we can expect inclusive economic growth that leads to
tangible improvements in the lives of our citizens. It is crucial to give
the same visibility to human condition data as we do to
macroeconomic data to ensure that the expected economic progress
benefits the masses and helps lift them out of their current dire
conditions.

31. I recently met with a group of small business owners who expressed
their concerns about the impact of inflation on their operations. They
shared stories of struggling to maintain affordable prices for their

16
customers while facing rising costs for raw materials and supplies.
The instability caused by inflation not only affects their profit margins
but also hampers their ability to plan for the future. These
entrepreneurs stressed the need for price stability to create a
conducive business environment that allows them to thrive and
contribute to the economy.

32. In recent discussions with individuals from different walks of life, I


encountered a young family trying to make ends meet in the face of
rising prices. They shared their worries about the erosion of their
purchasing power and the challenges of meeting basic needs within
a tight budget. They emphasized the importance of stable prices to
protect the well-being of ordinary citizens and ensure a fair
distribution of resources. It is crucial that we prioritize price stability
to safeguard the livelihoods of our fellow Nigerians.

33. Stabilizing the exchange rate is another critical aspect of our efforts
to promote economic stability. I had the privilege of speaking with
business owners engaged in international trade. They recounted the
difficulties of navigating the fluctuations in the exchange rate, which
often led to uncertainties and unexpected costs. The volatility in the
foreign exchange market disrupted their planning and hindered their

17
ability to make informed business decisions. It is imperative that we
provide transparency and create a market environment that allows
fair determination of exchange rates, ensuring stability for
businesses and individuals alike.

34. To address these challenges, the Central Bank of Nigeria is


committed to achieving monetary and price stability. This is not just
a technical objective, but it has real-life implications for the well-
being of our citizens. Through targeted policies, transparent market
operations, and coordination between monetary and fiscal
authorities, we can ensure a more stable exchange rate, control
inflation, and create an enabling environment for businesses and
individuals to thrive.

35. This is what I, together with my team at the Central Bank have been
focused on doing in the past two months. We hace critcally reviewed
the effectiveness of the Central Bank’s monetary policy tools and
have spent time fixing the transmission mechanism to ensure the
decisions of MPC meetings actually result in desired objectives. For
quite some time, there has been a dislocation of our monetary
transmission mechanisms rendering the MPC meetings largely
ineffective.

18
36. For the avoidance of doubt, the Central Bank of Nigeria Act 2007
requires that the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the
Bank holds at least four times a year, and the Bank has satisfied this
requirement for 2023. Our focus has been on ensuring these
meetings are useful and effective.

37. I am happy to report that our efforts over the past two months have
begun to yield fruit.

38. Regular Open Market Operations (OMO) to mop up excess liquidity


from the banking system. An OMO auction was recently held with a
stop rate of 17.5% for the one-year tenor, attracting oversubscription
of N350 billion. Another round of OMO has been approved to further
reduce excess liquidity.
39. Offering N108.1 billion worth of Treasury Bills with three tenors to
the investing public, which can help reduce liquidity in the banking
system and support government fundraising.

40. Removal of the cap on the remunerable Standing Deposit Facility


(SDF) to increase activity in the SDF window and manage liquidity.

19
41. Sustained Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) debits, which have
moderated liquidity in September and October 2023. Liquidity in the
entire banking sector has been significantly reduced to under N100
billion in November.

42. Inauguration of a new liquidity management committee within the


Bank that meets daily at 8am to assess liquidity conditions and
ensure optimal levels.

43. These measures have already started to yield results, as excess


liquidity in the banking system has significantly reduced and the
Overnight Bank Borrowing (OBB) rate has increased to a level
consistent with the monetary policy program. Month-on-month
inflation has also begun to decline, with a growth rate of 0.67% in
October compared to 0.97% previously.

44. While absolute inflation is still rising, the declining rate of growth
indicates progress. The CBN is confident that with continued
tightening measures for the next two quarters, they will be able to
effectively manage inflation.

Building Back a Better Central Bank

20
45. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, I am aware that events over the
past few years have also put the CBN in bad light. These issues can
be attributed to various factors, such as corporate governance
failures, diminished institutional autonomy of the Central Bank of
Nigeria, a deviation from the core mandate of the Bank, unorthodox
use of monetary tools, an inefficient and opaque foreign exchange
market that hindered clear access, a foray into fiscal activities under
the cover of development finance activities. There was also a lack of
clarity in the relationship between fiscal and monetary policies,
among other challenges.

46. Hitherto, the CBN had strayed from its core mandates and was
engaged in quasi-fiscal activities that pumped over 10 trillion naira in
the economy through almost different initiatives in sectors ranging
from agriculture, aviation, power, youth and many others. These
clearly distracted the Bank from achieving its own objectives and
took it into areas where it clearly had limited expertise.

47. Ladies and gentlemen, under my leadership, the Central Bank of


Nigeria will vigorously address these issues. We will tackle
institutional deficiencies, restore corporate governance, strengthen

21
regulations, and implement prudent policies. We assure investors
and the business community that the economy will experience
significant stability in the short-to-medium term as we recalibrate
our policy toolkits and implement far-reaching measures.

48. Esteemed guests, the primary mandate of the CBN is to ensure price
stability, in addition to other objectives such as issuing legal tender
currency, safeguarding external reserves, promoting a sound
financial system, and providing economic and financial advice to the
government. In line with our strategy to refocus on our core
mandate, the CBN will discontinue direct quasi-fiscal interventionist
activities and instead utilize orthodox monetary policy tools for
implementing monetary policy. As part of this refocus, the CBN has
just approved the adoption of an explicit inflation-targeting
framework to enhance the effectiveness of our monetary policy. The
details and requirements for this framework are currently being
finalized alongside the fiscal authorities. Additionally, the CBN will
provide forward guidance, enhance transparency, and maintain
effective communication with the public to anchor expectations and
build trust among stakeholders.

22
49. Our monetary policies will aim to achieve price stability, foster
sustainable economic growth, stabilize the exchange rate of the
naira, and reduce interest rates to facilitate borrowing and
investments in the real sector. In order to ensure the proper
functioning of domestic and foreign currency markets, clear,
transparent, and harmonized rules governing market operations are
essential. New foreign exchange guidelines and legislation will be
developed, and extensive consultations will be conducted with banks
and FX market operators before implementing any new
requirements.

50. We have already witnessed improvements in FX market liquidity in


recent weeks, as the market responded positively to tranche
payments which have been made to 31 banks to clear the backlog of
FX forward obligations. We have been subjecting these payments to
detailed verification to ensure only valid transactions are honored.
In a properly functioning market, it is reasonable to expect significant
FX liquidity, with daily trade potentially exceeding $1.0 billion. We
envision that, with discipline and focused commitment, foreign
exchange reserves can be rebuilt to comparable levels with similar
economies.

23
51. Significantly, the envisioned GDP target will put Nigeria in a position
of much more favourable macro-economic indices, comparable to
other economies of $1.0 trillion and above, with similar population
and development characteristics. As with these countries, there is an
expectation that driving to this target requires improvements in
productivity, employment, and key macro-economic growth indices.
In drawing a comparison with some of these countries, I had in the
same address to the Bankers ’Committee audience referred to
selected BRICS and MINT economies, such as Brazil, Mexico, and
Indonesia for their capacity to absorb economic shocks and rebound
from cyclical downturn. Significantly, Brazil with a population of 215
million, Mexico 129 million, and Indonesia 275 million, which have
2023 unemployment rates at 7.8%, 3.1%, 5.4%, respectively. These
are unemployment levels that we in Nigeria should aspire to achieve,
and with resolve can attain.

52. Further to the projected growth target, sectors including Agri-


processing, Oil & Gas, Manufacturing, Solid Minerals, Fintech and
Information Technology, Real Estate construction and Infrastructure,
among others are expected to attract significant capital investments.
Having mentioned all these sectors, we must appreciate the soft
power projected by the incredibly talented cohorts in the Creative

24
Industries: Afrobeat, Nollywood, Food, Fashion, Design, and the Arts,
continue to make strong impact in youth employment and
contribution to Nigeria’s international image. As these sectors
expand, so will opportunities for incumbent players and new
entrants alike, who are willing to make calculated bets as economic
spaces open from expansion of the economy.

53. Therefore, key macro-economic indicators both on fiscal and


monetary activities must be tracked, diligently evaluated, and
necessary adjustments made if things are not pointing in the right
direction or moving at the right pace. These indicators include GDP
growth, Tax-to-GDP, per capita income, balance of payments, foreign
exchange reserves, unemployment rate, consumer price indices,
headline, and core inflation rates, as well as more granular measures
that we as the regulator use in assessing stability of the financial
system. In our assessment of these key ratios, they need to continue
to improve, however we are aware of laudable efforts by the fiscal
authorities on this and recognize that visible improvements will take
time to manifest.

54. As the monetary authority, we are taking measured and deliberate


steps to send the right signals to the market and achieve our

25
mandate. To ensure stability, curb speculation, and restore
confidence in the foreign exchange market, we have initiated the
payment of unsettled forward foreign exchange obligations, and
these payments will continue until all obligations are cleared. This
intervention has already had a positive impact on liquidity and has
led to a significant appreciation of the exchange rate at certain
points. The CBN also recently lifted the ban on 43 items from
accessing the official foreign exchange market, allowing market
forces to determine exchange rates based on the Willing Buyer –
Willing Seller principle. We are witnessing clear progress in stabilizing
the Nigerian foreign exchange market.

55. Allow me to provide further clarification on the issue of the 43 items.


Firstly, it is important to note that these items were never outrightly
banned by the government. The CBN had imposed restrictions on
their access to foreign exchange in the official market. However,
these restrictions resulted in increased demand for foreign exchange
in the parallel market, leading to the depreciation of the exchange
rate in that segment of the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market
(NFEM) and widening the premium between the parallel and official
market. Studies have shown that during the period when the 43
items were restricted, there was a 51.0% increase in trade evasion

26
by importers accessing the foreign exchange market, resulting in a
revenue drop of approximately US$1.4 billion, or US$275 million
annually, between 2015 and 2019.

56. Additionally, revenue from tariffs on goods decreased from a high of


approximately US$920 million in 2011 to about US$250 million in
2017. In 2019, the actual tariff on goods stood at US$320 million, but
counterfactual evidence suggests that as much as US$680 million
could have been earned in the same year. Furthermore, evidence has
shown that foreign exchange restrictions had an adverse impact on
Nigerian households and contributed to inflationary pressures. The
reduction in trade restrictions and levies on rice, sugar, and wheat by
50.0% had only a minimal impact on welfare, with a 0.8%
improvement, and a mere 0.4% reduction in extreme poverty.
Moreover, the benefits of trade gains for the general population
were negligible, as the average industry in Nigeria pays 13.7% more
for its inputs. Lastly, it is important to note that trade policy is
primarily the responsibility of the fiscal authorities, and delving into
such matters falls outside the purview of the CBN.

57. Ladies and gentlemen, as an adviser to the government, the CBN will
be repositioned as a catalyst for economic stability and growth.

27
Instead of direct interventions, we will collaborate with stakeholders
and formulate policies that create an enabling environment for
sustained economic growth and development. Our catalytic role will
support increased investment and private sector participation in the
economy, improve access to finance for MSMEs, and enhance
financial services for the underbanked. This includes promoting
specialized institutions and financial products to support emerging
sectors, developing regulatory frameworks to unlock dormant capital
in land and property holdings, facilitating accelerated access to
consumer credit, and expanding financial inclusion to reach the
masses. Furthermore, we will work with experts to develop de-
risking instruments that encourage private sector investment in key
industry verticals such as housing, textiles and clothing, food supply
chain, healthcare, and educational supplies, which have high
potential for local inputs and value retention. The CBN will leverage
its convening power to engage multilateral and international
stakeholders in government and private sector initiatives.

58. In conclusion, there is much work to be done, and collaboration from


all stakeholders is essential as we rebuild trust.

28
59. Central banks are known as banks of last resort because they
underpin the financial system. To do so effectively will require
rebuilding and restoring trust in the Central Bank of Nigeria. Let me
assure you that I am irrevocably committed to that calling.

60. In navigating these challenging economic times, the Central Bank of


Nigeria is fully committed to ensuring price stability and financial
system sustainability. We will stand by Nigeria and Nigerians. Our
actions will be fully guided by the principles of transparency,
responsibility, and a deep commitment to Nigeria's progress.

61. Throughout the CIBNs journey of growth and success, the principles
of trust, honesty, integrity, and professionalism have been steadfast
guiding lights. They have defined the essence of our profession and
shaped the character of the industry. However, it is important for us
to engage in introspection and acknowledge that in recent times, the
reputation of the industry has suffered some setbacks, challenging
the very principles that have underpinned our noble profession. It is
incumbent upon us to look back into history and draw inspiration
from the rich heritage of the CIBN, learning from the countless
examples of banking professionals who upheld these principles and
contributed to the creation of a thriving industry—an industry that
29
has become a unique, homegrown addition to the global financial
system.

62. Once again, I would like to express my gratitude to the Chartered


Institute of Bankers of Nigeria for organizing this event.

63. Thank you all for your attention, and I wish you an enjoyable evening
ahead.

Olayemi M. Cardoso
Governor,
Central Bank of Nigeria

November 24, 2023

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