ES209

Engineering Data Analysis

Module No. 03
Topic Discrete Probability Distributions
Period Week no. 03 Date: September 19-24,2022

Discrete Probability Distributions

Introduction
Hello dear young engineers!
Welcome to this third module on Engineering Data Analysis. This module will help you
understand and predict the behavior of complex systems or analyze experimental, financial, and
biological data. First let us define Probability Distributions.
Probability distribution is a statistical function that describes all the possible values and
likelihoods that a random variable can take within a given range. This range will be bounded
between the minimum and maximum possible values, but precisely where the possible value is
likely to be plotted on the probability distribution depends on a number of factors. These
factors include the distribution's mean (average), standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis.
There are two types of probability distributions namely, discrete probability distribution and a
continuous probability distribution.

Objective/Intended Learning Outcomes

At the end of this module, you are expected to:

• To learn the concept of the probability distribution of a discrete random variable.

• To learn the concepts of the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a discrete random
variable, and how to compute them.
• Understand the Binomial and Poisson Distribution and its application

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What is Discrete Probability Distribution ?

Discrete probability distribution is a type of probability distribution that shows all possible
values of a discrete random variable along with the associated probabilities. In other words, a
discrete probability distribution gives the likelihood of occurrence of each possible value of a
discrete random variable. Such a distribution will represent data that has a finite countable
number of outcomes.

is a variable that can take any whole number values as outcomes

Random Variable of a random experiment. The discrete random variable takes a
countable number of possible outcomes and it can be counted as
0, 1, 2, 3, 4, .....

✔ Two conditions that a discrete probability distribution must satisfy

this implies that the probability of a discrete random variable, X,
0 ≤ P(X = x) ≤ 1
taking on an exact value, x, lies between 0 and 1

∑P(X = x) =1 sum of all probabilities must be equal to 1

Examples:
Suppose a fair dice is rolled and the discrete probability distribution has to be created. The
possible outcomes are {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Thus, the total number of outcomes will be 6. All
numbers have a fair chance of turning up. This means that the probability of getting any
one number is 1 / 6. Using this data the discrete probability distribution table for a dice roll
can be given as follows:

How To Find Discrete Probability Distribution?

A discrete probability distribution can be represented either in the form of a table or
with the help of a graph. To find a discrete probability distribution the probability
mass function is required. In other words, to construct a discrete probability
distribution, all the values of the discrete random variable and the probabilities
associated with them are required.

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Suppose a fair coin is tossed twice. Say, the discrete probability distribution has to be
determined for the number of heads that are observed. The steps are as follows:

Determine the sample space of the experiment. When a fair coin is tossed
Step 1 twice the sample space is {HH, HT, TH, TT}. Here, H denotes a head
and T represents a tail. Thus, the total number of outcomes is 4.

Step 2 Define a discrete random variable, X. For the example let X be the
number of heads observed.

Identify the possible values that the variable can assume. There are 3
Step 3 possible values of X. These are 0 (no head is observed), 1 (exactly one
head is observed), and 2 (the coin lands on heads twice).

Calculate the probability associated with each outcome. In the given

Step 4 example, the probability can be calculated by the formula,

To get the discrete probability distribution represent the probabilities and

Step 5 the corresponding outcomes in tabular form or in graphical form. This is
expressed as follows:

Practice Activity 01

Suppose a pair of fair dice are rolled. Let X be the random variable
representing the sum of the dice.

● Construct a discrete probability distribution. (6pts)

● What would be the highest value of the random variable (2pts)
● List the random variable/s (2pts)

Write your answer in a piece of paper. Show solution Take a picture of your answers and
submit it in our Google classroom.
filename format: Lastname_Activity_1.pdf

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Discrete Probability Distribution Formula
A discrete random variable is used to model a discrete probability distribution. There are
two main functions associated with such a random variable. These are the probability
mass function (pmf) and the probability distribution function or cumulative distribution
function (CDF).

can be defined as a function that gives the probability of a

discrete random variable, X, being exactly equal to some
Probability Mass Function PMF value, x. This function is required when creating a discrete
probability distribution. The formula is given as follows:
P(x) = P(X = x)

gives the probability that a discrete random variable will be

lesser than or equal to a particular value. The value of the
Cumulative Distribution CDF can be calculated by using the discrete probability
Function CDF distribution. Its formula is given as follows:
F(x) = P(X ≤ x)

gives the weighted average of all possible values of the

discrete random variable. It is also known as the expected
Mean value. The formula for the mean of a discrete random
variable is given as follows:
μ = ∑x P(X = x)

gives the dispersion of the distribution about the mean. It

can be defined as the average of the squared differences of
Variance the distribution from the mean, μ. The formula is given
below:
σ² = ∑(x - μ)²P(X = x)

is the square root of its variance, hence is given by the

formulas:
Standard Deviation

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Examples:
A discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution:

x -1 0 1 4

P(X = x) 0.2 0.5 a 0.1

Compute each of the following quantities.

a. a
b. P(0)
c. P(X > 0)
d. P(X ≥ 0)
e. P(X≤−2)
f. The mean μ of X
g. The variance σ2 of X
h. The standard deviation σ of X

Solution:

a. Since all probabilities must add up to 1, a=1−(0.2+0.5+0.1)= 0.2

b. Directly from the table, P(0)= 0.5
c. From the table, P(X>0) = P(1)+P(4) = 0.2+0.1 = 0.3
d. From the table, P(X≥0) = P(0)+P(1)+P(4) = 0.5+0.2+0.1 = 0.8
e. Since none of the numbers listed as possible values for X is less than or equal to −2,
the event X ≤ −2 is impossible, so P(X ≤ −2) = 0
f. Using the formula in the definition of μ,
μ=∑x P(X = x) = (−1)*0.2 + 0*0.5 + 1*0.2 + 4*0.1 = 0.4
a. Using the formula in the definition of σ2 and the value of μ that was just computed,
σ2 = ∑(x - μ)²P(X = x)
= (−1−0.4)²*0.2 + (0−0.4)²*0.5 + (1−0.4)²*0.2 + (4−0.4)²*0.1
= 1.84
a. Using the result of part (g), σ = √1.84 = 1.3565

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 Practice Activity 02
1. Find the expected value of the given discrete probability distribution. (15pts)

x 0 1 2 3 4

P(X = x) z 0.36 0.15 0.04 0.01

Compute each of the following quantities.

a. z
b. P(X=0)
c. P(X > 0)
d. P(X ≥ 2)
e. P(X≤3)
f. The expected value of X
g. The variance σ2 of X
h. The standard deviation σ of X

Write your answer in a piece of paper. Show your solution. Take a picture of your answers
and submit it in our Google classroom.
filename format: Lastname_Activity_2.pdf

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Discrete Probability Distribution Types
The most commonly used types of discrete probability distributions are given below.

Binomial Distribution

is the probability distribution that is discrete and applicable to events having only two
possible results in an experiment, either success or failure. (the prefix “bi” means two, or
twice). A few circumstances where we have binomial experiments are tossing a coin: head
or tail, the result of a test: pass or fail, selected in an interview: yes/ no, or nature of the
product: defective/non-defective.
is a discrete probability distribution that gives the success probability in n Bernoulli trials.
The probability of getting a success is given by p. It is represented as X ∼ Binomial(n, p).
The pmf is given as follows:

Or

where:
n = the number of experiments/trials
x = number of success desired
p = probability of success
1-p = probability of failure
n-x = number of failure

Examples:

If a coin is tossed 5 times, using binomial distribution find the probability of:
(a) Exactly 2 heads
(b) At least 4 heads

Solution:

(a) The repeated tossing of the coin is an example of a Bernoulli trial. According to the
problem:
Number of trials: n=5
Probability of head: p= 1/2 and hence the probability of tail, q =½

For exactly two heads:

x=2
P(X=2) = =

P(X=2) = 5/16

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 (b) For at least four heads,

x ≥ 4, P(x ≥ 4) = P(x = 4) + P(x=5)

Hence,

Answer: Therefore, P(x ≥ 4) = 5/32 + 1/32 = 6/32 = 3/16

Mean = μ = np
Variance = σ² = np(1-p)
Standard Deviation = σ = square root of variance

Binomial Distribution Table

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 Practice Activity 03

1. Suppose a random variable, x, arises from a binomial experiment. If n = 6, and p = 0.40,

find the following probabilities using the binomial formula. (10pts)
a. P (x=1)
b. P (x=5)
c. P(x≤3)
d. P(x≥5)
e. P(x≤4)

2. Approximately 10% of all people are left-handed ("11 little-known facts," 2013).
Consider a grouping of 10 people. (20pts)

a. State the random variable.

b. Argue that this is a binomial experiment
Find the probability that
a. None are left-handed.
b. Seven are left-handed.
c. At least two are left-handed.
d. At most three are left-handed.
e. At least seven are left-handed.

Write your answer in a piece of paper. Show your solution. Take a picture of your answers
and submit it in our Google classroom.
filename format: Lastname_Activity_3.pdf

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 Poisson Distribution

is a discrete probability distribution that is widely used in the field of finance. It gives the
probability that a given number of events will take place within a fixed time period. The
notation is written as X ∼ Pois(λ), where λ>0. The pmf is given by the following formula:

where:
x = the number of occurrence
e = Euler's number (e = 2.71828...)
λ = an average rate of the expected value and λ = variance, also λ>0

Poisson Distribution Mean and Variance

For Poisson distribution, which has λ as the average rate, for a fixed interval of time, then
the mean of the Poisson distribution and the value of variance will be the same. So for X
following Poisson distribution, we can say that λ is the mean as well as the variance of the
distribution.
Hence: E(X) = V(X) = λ
where:
E(X) is the expected mean
V(X) is the variance
λ>0

Properties of Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution is applicable in events that have a large number of rare and
independent possible events. The following are the properties of the Poisson Distribution.
In the Poisson distribution,

● The events are independent.

● The average number of successes in the given period of time alone can occur. No
two events can occur at the same time.
● The Poisson distribution is limited when the number of trials n is indefinitely
large.
● mean = variance = λ
● np = λ is finite, where λ is constant.
● The standard deviation is always equal to the square root of the mean μ.
● The exact probability that the random variable X with mean μ =a is given by
P(X= a) = μa / a! e -μ
● If the mean is large, then the Poisson distribution is approximately a normal
distribution.

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 Applications of Poisson Distribution
There are various applications of the Poisson distribution. The random variables that
follow a Poisson distribution are as follows:

● To count the number of defects of a finished product

● To count the number of deaths in a country by any disease or natural calamity
● To count the number of infected plants in the field
● To count the number of bacteria in the organisms or the radioactive decay in
atoms
● To calculate the waiting time between the events.

Poisson Distribution Table

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Example 1:

In a cafe, the customer arrives at a mean rate of 2 per min. Find the probability of arrival
of 5 customers in 1 minute using the Poisson distribution formula.

Solution:

Given: λ = 2, and x = 5.

Using the Poisson distribution formula:

P(X = x) = (e-λ λx )/x!

P(X = 5) = (e-2 25 )/5!

P(X = 5) = 0.036

Answer: The probability of arrival of 5 customers per minute is 3.6%.

Example 2:

If 3% of electronic units manufactured by a company are defective. Find the probability

that in a sample of 200 units, less than 2 bulbs are defective.

Solution:

The probability of defective units p = 3/100 = 0.03

Give n = 200.

We observe that p is small and n is large here. Thus it is a Poisson distribution.

Mean λ= np = 200 × 0.03 = 6

P(X= x) is given by the Poisson Distribution Formula as (e-λ λx )/x!

P(X < 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X= 1)

=(e-6 60 )/0! + (e-661 )/1!

= e-6 + e-6 × 6

P(X < 2) = 0.01735

Answer: The probability that less than 2 bulbs are defective is 1.735%

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 Practice Activity 04

1.Find the mass probability of function at x = 8, if the value of the mean is 4.3 (5pts)

2. Suppose a fast food restaurant can expect two customers every 3 minutes, on average.
What is the probability that four or fewer patrons will enter the restaurant in a 9 minute
period? (5pts)

3. A bank is interested in studying the number of people who use the ATM located
outside its office late at night. On average, 1.6 customers used the ATM during any
10 minute interval between 9pm and Midnight.

i. What is the probability of exactly 3 customers using the ATM during any 10
minute interval? Answer in percentage (5pts)

ii. What is the probability of 3 or fewer customers using the ATM during any 20
minute interval? Answer in percentage (5pts)

Write your answer in a piece of paper. Show your solution. Take a picture of your answers
and submit it in our Google classroom.
filename format: Lastname_Activity_4.pdf

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References

• https://www.cuemath.com/data/discrete-probability-distribution/
• https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/discrete-distribution.asp
• https://www.coconino.edu/resources/files/pdfs/academics/sabbatical-reports/kate-kozak/
chapter_5.pdf
• https://saylordotorg.github.io/text_introductory-statistics/s08-03-the-binomial-distribution.
html

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