Flying in 2050

WHAT AVIATION IN A CONSTRAINED WORLD?

SUMMARY

MARCH 3, 2021

With the contribution of:

 FLYING IN 2050: WHAT AVIATION IN A CONSTRAINED WORLD?

Editorial
Few industries, other than aviation, occupy such a unique place in the energy transition
landscape. High-tech industry with negligible climate impact for its advocates, fad of
the ultra-wealthy prone to minimise their emissions for its detractors, it generates
polarising opinions and sometimes useless oppositions.

The authors of this report support the idea that another voice must be heard beyond
these extreme positions.

In May 2020, a first report named “Crisis, climate: preparing aviation’s future” offered
a series of carbon-free measures that the government could demand in return for its
support to the industry. By targeting immediately actionable measures with significant
effects as soon as 2025, this report supported the idea that the recovery of an
industry severely impacted by the crisis was not incompatible with the launch of an
effective decarbonisation policy. On the contrary: it argued that delaying the energy
transition of aviation makes it all the more vulnerable to the threat of climate change.

The nine months that separated us from this publication have been marked by
contrasting events. Although Airbus has committed to producing a hydrogen-powered
aircraft in 2035, although the public statements made on the decarbonisation of
aviation have multiplied, the health crisis has continued, impacting the financial balance
of many actors now facing an unprecedented risk of bankruptcy. But in these nine
months we have also seen many voices rise, those of engineers, pilots, air traffic
controllers, airline employees and aviation users who saw themselves reflected in the
speech of the Shift Project’s report. Expressing their interest in the process,
highlighting its shortcomings and limitations, led many of them to wish for a deeper
analysis.

These are the contributors to this new report: professionals in the industry, eager to
confront the distressing but inevitable question of how to act today to keep on flying
tomorrow in a world under constraint. If no one disregards the suffering and
helplessness created by the COVID-19 crisis, there’s unfortunately much worse threats
looming in climate change, depletion of fossil energies and the collapse of biodiversity
on human life in general, and on aviation in particular.

All of us who love aviation and those of us who have made it their job, all of us who love
technical matters, great discoveries, all this prodigious human intelligence dedicated to
fly machines, we affirm that we love even more life, nature and science - that very
science which also rigorously describes the aerodynamic and climatic phenomena, this
very science we cannot on the one hand enjoy the benefits from and on the other
ignore the upheavals it predicts.

We, aeronautical engineers, pilots, air traffic controllers, air companies employees,
users or simple aviation lovers, tired of polarizing speeches it suffers from, we sign-up
this report with the ambition of creating the conditions for a peaceful debate on its
ability to drastically reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, in proportions compatible
with a viable world in 2100. We, climate-related aero-lovers, claim that we can be part
of the solution rather than the problem, by carrying a transparent, disinterested and
scientifically supported speech on what the aviation industry can - but also cannot –
do to decarbonise itself.

The editorial board

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 FLYING IN 2050: WHAT AVIATION IN A CONSTRAINED WORLD?

Read the press release

Editorial committee
Editorial team engineer), Florent NOBELEN (Aeronautical engineer, Member
of SUPAERO-DECARBO collective), Marie REBIERE (ISAE-
N.B. The professional status of some team members drives SUPAERO student), Jules RICHARD (Aeronautical engineer,
them to remain anonymous. Moreover, all contributors speak on advisor in mobility, Member of SUPAERO-DECARBO collective),
their own behalf and their words in no way should reflect those François ROBERT (Aeronautical engineer, Student in Arts
and Politics at Sciences Po, Member of SUPAERO-DECARBO
of their respective company or association, exceptions made
collective), Elisabeth WOELDGEN (Aeronautical engineer).
of The Shift Project, the Shifters, Citizens for the Climate and
SUPAERO-DECARBO. The representatives of the latter carry
Wished to remain anonymous: Guillaume (airline pilot), 6
an independent voice from the Higher Institute of Aeronautics aeronautical engineers, 1 airline company former board
and Space (ISAE-SUPAERO) which does not engage it in any member.
way.
Proofreading / Consulting
Ange BLANCHARD (ISAE-SUPAERO student), Jeanne BOSC
Loïc BONIFACIO (ESTACA Engineer), Sigrid CLAVIERAS
BIERNE (ISAE-SUPAERO student), Angela BOVO (Engineer
(SUPAERO engineer, Union of public transport and railways,
SUPAERO, Member of SUPAERO-DECARBO collective),
François CAMILLERI, (Aeronautical engineer, Member of Member of SUPAERO-DECARBO collective), Maxime EFOUI-
Sciences Pole of the Citizens for the Climate collective), HESS (SUPAERO Engineer, Member of SUPAERO-DECARBO
Grégoire CARPENTIER (SUPAERO engineer, Co-founder of collective, Project manager at THE SHIFT PROJECT), Yves
the SUPAERO-DECARBO collective), Olivier COEURDRAY FOUQUART (Former Lille University professor, Former member
(SUPAERO Engineer, Member of SUPAERO-DECARBO of scientific committee at World Climate Research Council Pro-
collective), Maximilien de POMMEROL (ISAE-SUPAERO gram and co-editor of IPCC 3rd report), Nicolas GOURDAIN
student), Olivier DEL BUCCHIA (Engineer SUPAERO, Co- (Professor at ISAE-SUPAERO, Member of SUPAERO-DE-
founder of SUPAERO-DECARBO collective), Xavier DEVARS CARBO collective), François NEGRE (Air traffic controller, ATM
(Airline Pilot), Soizic ESNAULT (PhD student in fluid mechanics), expert for European Union research), Nicolas RAILLARD (THE
Louis FIEVET (Former aeronautical engineer, Member of
SHIFT PROJECT Project Manager), Yannick SALEMAN
SUPAERO-DECARBO collective), Yohann GIRARDEAU (ISAE-
(Employment, Finance and Macroeconomics Project Manager at
SUPAERO student), Bich HA DUONG (SUPAERO Engineer,
16-years airline career, Member of SUPAERO-DECARBO THE SHIFT PROJECT), Antoine THEBAULT, Léa FOURCADE
collective), Nicolas HUBERT (Aeronautical engineer, Member (Graphic designer), Édouard LAFORE (Graphic designer).
of SUPAERO-DECARBO collective), Clément JARROSSAY Wished to remain anonymous: An aeronautical engineer, a
(Aeronautical engineer), Auriane JOUDIOU (ISAE-SUPAERO &
member of the DGAC, a member of the ICAO, a person wor-
Sciences-Po Paris student), Alix LAGET (Air traffic controller),
king in IT solutions for airlines and the travel sector, Mana-
Julien MARCINKOWSKI (Aeronautical engineer, Energy and
climate trainer), Florian NGUYEN (Aeronautical and space ger in Strategy.

Table of contents
1 Context 4

2 Key objectives of the report  4

3 Our baseline proposal: establishing a carbon budget for air transportation  5

4 Decarbonising through technology 5

5 Focus on France: which decarbonisation measures to quickly implement nationwide? 7

6 Impacts on jobs in France 8

7 Conclusion 9

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 FLYING IN 2050: WHAT AVIATION IN A CONSTRAINED WORLD?

1 Context
The airline industry is currently hit by the worst crisis in its his- sions alone. The assessed climate impact must therefore be
tory, affecting all actors with never seen before risks of trickle- considered as a minimum. It is reminded that any technology
down bankruptcies, job and know-how losses1. In the long run, or strategy to reduce emissions of the air transport industry
climate risks, bundled with the depletion of fossil fuel re- must consider the whole span of the different phenomena.
sources, threaten the entire world economy. More than ever,
anticipation and transformation become a matter of survival in Let us recall that, despite its democratisation efforts, air
tomorrow’s low-carbon world, in the aviation industry as in eve- transportation remains the prerogative of a minority of
ry other. people, among the wealthiest. Only 10% of the world’s po-
pulation travels by plane every year 8 and, in 2018, only 1%
In 2018, global civil aviation emitted ~1.1 Gt of CO2 2, of the world’s population represented 50% of aviation-re-
upstream included, i.e. ~2.56% of global CO2 emissions lated emissions 9. Reduced to the number of single travel-
(agriculture, forestry and other land use included) 3. Despite lers, these levels of emissions take a whole different scope.
continuous improvement in aircraft fuel efficiency, CO2 emis- Synthèse
sions increased by 42% between 2005 and 2019 4 solely
Upper-level managers
due to air traffic growth. Taking post-COVID crisis growth Share in global population: 9,4%

projections announced by IATA into consideration 5, keeping Workers

those emission levels under control is a concern of utmost Share in global population: 12,1%

importance. 17x
more trips

Air transportation also contributes to climate change by rejec- 50%

ting other GHG (Greenhouse Gases). In 2011, aviation contri- of travels by plane are made
by 2% of the people with

buted – including all effects on top of CO2 emissions – to

the highest income per
consumption units

around 3.5% of the net effective radiative forcing; in 2018,

the share of the non-CO2 effects over radiative forcing was
twice as high as that of CO2 alone 6. However, there is not yet
any consensus on a robust metric to describe the impacts of 50%
of greenhouse gas
those non-CO2 effects on climate, considering they work under emissions are made by

significantly different dynamics and time scales. We present

the status of current scientific knowledge on non-CO2 pheno-
5%
of French people
travelling the most.
mena 7, but on the premise of robust calculations and long-
term projections, all quantitative studies focus on CO2 emis- Chart #1 - An over-representation of the upper socio-professional catego-
ry in air transportation 10

2 Key objectives of the report

To offer the definition and the establishment of a We have taken a holistic approach that covers the tech-
1 carbon budget for air transportation nological, energetical and organisational prerequisites as
well as the impacts on usages, jobs, and infrastructures.
Aspects related to the consumption of non-energy resources
To assess the measures of decarbonisation proposed
2 by the sector through a scenario analysis
and to the transition funding are well identified, but their esti-
mation will be subject to a further study (see full report). The
Methodological Note accompanying this study will be published
To proof-test our two decarbonisation scenarios in spring of 2021.
3 against the carbon budget, in order to draw proper
conclusions 3. 42.1 GtCO2 emitted worldwide in 2018 according to Global Carbon Project https://
www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/archive/2019/GCP_CarbonBudget_2019.
To list the decarbonisation actions that can be rapidly
4 implemented nationwide
pdf
4. See Calculation note, source ATAG for 2005 and IATA for 2019
5. https://www.iata.org/contentassets/e938e150c0f547449c1093239597cc18/pax-fo-
recast-infographic-2020-final.pdf

5
6. The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to
To integrate the impacts on jobs in the sector 2018, par Lee et al., Atmospheric Environment, 2020, 117834, ISSN 1352-2310, https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/
pii/S1352231020305689)
1. See full report §5.8 and appendix 3 7. See full report §5.7
2. Quantity of CO2 alone in 2018 (without taking into account other Greenhouse Gases) 8. Le Monde https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2011/11/01/7-milliards-en-
of 905 MtCO2 (excluding upstream) taken from the “June 2020” table in IATA, Airline avion_1596821_3232.html
Industry Economic Performance – June 2020 – Data Tables. Other sources provide 9. The Guardian, 1% of people cause half of global aviation emissions – study, 2020.
different values ​​but of the same order of magnitude, which is sufficient for our study 10. DGAC survey 2015-2016 https://www.ecologique-solidaire.gouv.fr/sites/default/files/
here: 918 Mt according to the ICCT, 905 Mt according to the EESI, or 918 Mt according ENPA_2015_2016.pdf + government survey 2008: https://www.statistiques.developpe-
to ICAO. ment-durable.gouv.fr/enquete-nationale-transports-et-deplacements-entd-2008

4
 FLYING IN 2050: WHAT AVIATION IN A CONSTRAINED WORLD?

3 Our baseline proposal: establishing a carbon

budget for air transportation
«To contain the global temperature rise within + 2°C com- Thus, we have defined a carbon budget for international
pared to pre-industrial levels with a 67% probability rate» aviation, i.e. the total amount of GHG that the industry can
is a climate target in line with the Paris Agreement and emit by 2050 to remain within the objective of containing glo-
commonly referred to in scientific publications. In line with bal warming within +2°C by the year 2100. The carbon budget
this objective, the IPCC estimates a global carbon budget allocated to international aviation could be defined by the ICAO
of 1,170 GtCO2 11 reduced to 844 GtCO2 for the 2018 – 2050 and trickled-down into the Low-Carbon National Strategy 13
timeframe. as well as in the next revision of contributions at national level
(CDN) 14. In this study, the aviation carbon budget is defined in
While the airline industry has set itself the ambitious goal of proportion of industry emissions in 2018, i.e. respectively
reducing its emissions by 50% in 2050 compared to 2005 12, 21.6 GtCO2 worldwide and 536 MtCO2 at level of France 15,
it, however, has not defined a carbon budget. On the other Dans
over cette
the 2018 étude, les budgets carbone*
– 2050 timeframe.
hand, the national carbon accountings exclude international
transport, of which the aerial. It is therefore not possible to de l'aérien sont
In this définis
study, au
carbon prorata
budgets* of air des
guarantee the compatibility between the various paths consi- émissions duare
transportation secteur en 2018,
defined in proportion
dered by the industry and the global climate target defined of
soit respectivement2018,
industry emissions in :
by the IPCC. which are, respectively:

It is on the basis of this observation that the framework pro-

posal of the study has been formulated, consisting essentially 21,6 GtCO2
in defining a carbon budget and a GHG reduction path for worldwide.
air transportation, both national and international, taking
into account its impact on climate change as a whole (non- 539 MtCO2
CO2 effects excluded). at France level.

* over the 2018 – 2050 timeframe.

4 Decarbonising through technology

Starting from this baseline proposal, we have studied two In this scenario, the previous scenario is delayed by 5 years,
possible paths for reducing climate impacts of air transpor- worldwide fleet is renewed in 25 years and the air trans-
tation, paths that are compatible with the objectives of the portation benefits from no more than 50% of the global
Paris Agreement. production of alternative fuels.

For this, we have established two decarbonisation scenarios For each scenario, we assessed the carbon impact up to 2050
– through technology – of the aviation industry, named using a model that takes into account the characteristics of
«MAVERICK» and «ICEMAN» 16. the fleets and their renewal, the gradual incorporation of al-
ternative fuels and the emissions linked to their manufac-
• The «MAVERICK» scenario makes very optimistic as- ture. Thus, these scenarios take into account the availability
sumptions on the potential for decarbonisation by tech- of energy resources.
nology, but which implies that choices largely in favour
of the air transportation industry are made, as well as We assume that air traffic returns to its 2019 level in 2024,
significant and immediate investments, and which pre- and that it then grows by 4% per year until 2050 (2019 –
sents a high level of risk in regards to its implementa- 2039 projection, IATA).
tion within short deadlines.
The scenarios are summarised in the table below:
In this scenario, the worldwide fleet is renewed in 15 years
(compared to an estimated current average of 25 years as per
ICAO data 17), the production of alternative fuels is at its
maximum (beyond all current projections) 16 and it is primarily 11. See full report §4.2.3, sourced from IPCC SR15, chapter 2
intended for air transportation. 12. ATAG target presented in the ICAO “2019 Environmental Report” (p174)
13. SNBC: https://www.ecologique-solidaire.gouv.fr/strategie-natio-
• The «ICEMAN» scenario considers reasonably opti- nale-bas-carbone-snbc
14. See detail of proposal 0 in §6 of the full report
mistic assumptions about the potential for decarboni-
15. See full report §5.9.3
sation by technology, more spread over time and thus 16. See full report §8.1
offering more flexibility for its implementation. 17. https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Documents/ICAO-ENV-Re-
port2019-F1-WEB%20(1).pdf p.279

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 FLYING IN 2050: WHAT AVIATION IN A CONSTRAINED WORLD?

MAVERICK ICEMAN

Energy efficiency gains, both for

The gain in energy efficiency is a reasonable assumption
ground and in-flight operations

Aggressive roadmap, detailed by aircraft

type, including:
• Optimistic technological gains
Industrial roadmap for new pla-
• Launch of short/medium haul hy- 5-year lag from the Maverick scenario
nes’ market launches
drogen-powered planes in 2035
• Launch of long-haul plane 100% alterna-
tive fuels compatible in 2035

Fleets’ renewal rate Every 15 years Every 25 years

Alternative fuels priority alloca-

100% of alternative fuels production dedi- 50% of alternative fuels production
tion to air transport (abundant
cated to air transportation dedicated to air transportation
production in both scenarios)

Reasonable assumptions Optimistic assumptions Very optimistic assumptions

Conclusions • Lower the traffic hypothesis: it is essential to inte-

grate this element into decarbonisation trajectories in or-
We have proof-tested these two scenarios against the pre- der to establish a relevant sobriety policy and to anticipate
viously established carbon budget. the consequences on employment in the air transportation
sector.
Even though the two scenarios «MAVERICK» and «ICEMAN»
allow to significantly bend the curve of GHG emissions, none Therefore, to remain within the frame of the carbon budget
of them is compatible with the carbon budget assuming 4% defined above, we must lower the growth rate from 2025 to
year-on-year traffic growth. Beyond the uncertainties sur- +2.52% in the “MAVERICK” scenario, and to -0.8% in the
rounding the achievement of technological targets within the “ICEMAN” scenario. If these changes were to be not effective
industry, the rate of adoption of innovations in the planes fleet in 2025 and the traffic continued its year-on-year growth of
is too slow in the light of climate emergency. 4%, the effort to be provided subsequently would inevitably
be more important. Chart #2 shows the evolution of sobriety
In summary, our work shows that no realistic scenario can effort to be made in order to stay within the carbon budget,
contribute to achieving the goal without reducing traffic depending on the year in which traffic would not increase any
growth. longer by 4% per year, whether this would be «spontaneous»
or further to an international consensus on growth limitation.

Holding the carbon budget The situation requires both tactical choices to master short-
term emissions within the carbon budget, and strategic choices
To stay within the above-defined carbon budget frame, there to sustain long-term emissions of the air transportation indus-
are theoretically three options left: try beyond 2050.

• Bet on even more technical improvement and faster

Considering a constant carbon budget, the longer we wait,
than in the «MAVERICK» scenario: this is a very risky bet,
the more consequences on traffic – therefore on the finan-
this scenario is already at a very high limit of what can be
cial health of the aviation industry – will be important.
expected from technical progress and is already genera-
ting considerable energy externalities.

• Increase the carbon budget of the air transportation

industry: this first requires defining such a budget at in-
ternational level, steering it and managing inter-industry
strong arbitrations to the detriment of other sectors,
the overall budget not being negotiable since physically
determined. To date, however, there is no international
governance supporting such discussions. Moreover, the
aviation industry is already in fierce competition with
other industries for the access to low carbon resources
and to the financing of its development programmes. Chart #2 – Evolution of traffic growth compatible with the carbon budget
depending on the year in which the trajectory falls off the trend

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 FLYING IN 2050: WHAT AVIATION IN A CONSTRAINED WORLD?

Focus on France: which decarbonisation

5
measures to quickly implement nationwide?
The “MAVERICK” and “ICEMAN” scenarios have been applied essential that the legislation supporting those measures
at the level of France. does not disadvantage national actors to the benefit of
their competitors. If those measures can be implemented
Broken down to the perimeter of emissions in France, the one quickly, independently from a technological leap or an indus-
measured by the DGAC 18, the hypotheses of the “MAVERICK” trial programme, they must be part of a long-term transna-
and «ICEMAN» scenarios differ from the World perimeter on tional policy.
three structuring aspects: the production of bio-fuel, the dis-
tribution of the emissions between long-haul vs. short and me- Those sobriety measures have a significant effect on the cu-
dium-haul flights 19 and the possible short-term actions, pre- mulative emissions curve (-10%) due to their very short-term
sented below. application (between 2021 and 2025). Thus associated with the
technical measures, they would allow to push back the consump-
tion date of the carbon budget by about a year.
A. Run short-term operational
efficiency actions In any case, however, the level of sobriety provided by
those measures does not allow to remain within the bud-
get.
Four emission reduction areas, deployable by 2025, were
studied: decarbonising ground operations, replacing
small-capacity turbo-jet engines with turbo-propellers, C. Go further in sobriety
limiting fuel tankering and reducing flights’ cost index to
a minimum. 20 21 To remain within France›s carbon budget, the growth rate
But their impact is limited. By 2050, they will only contribute from 2025 must not exceed +0.71% in the «MAVERICK»
to 4% of the required reduction effort 22. As shown in the wor- scenario, and -1.75% in the «ICEMAN» scenario 24. This
ldwide scenario study, a fixed carbon budget requires finding option is not easy to achieve. The lower the anticipation, the
other short-term reduction measures. more painful it will become (see Chart #5 in the world scenario
of the full report) and it should ideally align with societal choices
Thus, to meet the envelope of the predefined carbon bud- as to the place and role we want for air transport.
get, usage sobriety is required.
Four areas of reflexion have been identified and seem to be de-
ployable without delay, across the entire scope of long-haul
B. Run short-term sobriety actions transport 25 :

1. Informing and raising awareness of stakeholders

The reduction in air traffic can be suffered, as it is currently
and the general public, in particular through developing
the case, or proactively anticipated allowing air transport
the educational sources on climate imperatives for the
to be sustainable in the long term by controlling its GHG
industry, by regulating the calculating method of non-
emissions. Usage sobriety can come from a reduction in offer
CO2 effects, by developing an official trip-related car-
or in demand.
bon footprint calculator for any type of transportation
Therefore, how can the offer of air transport be adapted to or still by reinforcing, through regulatory means, com-
encourage sobriety and complementarity with less emitting pulsory posting by transport service providers of the
modes of transport? quantity of greenhouse gases emitted for all trips.

Four areas of adaptation of the transport offer, deployable 2. Encouraging travellers to reduce their number of
in the short term, are studied: increasing density in the ca- trips, starting with the business-related ones, for exa-
bins, removing air transport offer when a rail transport mple via tax-relief mechanisms, or subsidies for
alternative of less than 4h30 travel time exists, limiting the establishment of remote collaboration tools or
air traffic for business purposes, and rethinking the “fre- co-working environments in medium and low-density
quent flyer / miles” system 23 21. geographical areas.

The implementation of such proposals raises the question of

the usages of air transport, the business model and the
21. The national areas of studies were taken from the Shift Project report
marketing positioning of historical airlines. Again, it is
«CRISIS (S), CLIMATE: PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE OF AVIATION» publi-
shed on 05/27/2020 https://theshiftproject.org/article/climat-preparer-ave-
nir-aviation-propositions-shift-contreparties/
18. DGAC, Gas emissions report 2019: https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/sites/de- 22. See full report §7.2.1.5
fault/files/bilan_emissions_gazeuses_2019.pdf 23. See full report §7.3
19. See deviation analysis in full report, §8.2.3 24. See full report §7.4.1
20. See full report §7.2.1 25. See full report §7.4

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 FLYING IN 2050: WHAT AVIATION IN A CONSTRAINED WORLD?

3. Engaging aviation customers in prioritizing usages, location of travelling rights) or through taxation. The tax
for example through extending to the long-hauling offer approach, particularly unpopular, is frequently debated in
the proposals D1 and D3 of the Citizen’s Convention for the field of social justice. In the perspective of fair dis-
the Climate 26, but also by creating a citizens’ initiative tribution of efforts and long-haul access equity, a pro-
of air transport users responsible for ensuring that so- gressive tax indexed upon trips’ frequency and travel
briety policies are effectively aligned with citizens’ expec- distance is an interesting idea.
tations. Priority will be given to systems allowing desi-
gnated people to receive sufficient training, as this is the These last measures must be considered on a large scale,
case for example in citizens’ conferences. at least within the European Union, on the global scope
of long-haul transport, in order to ensure the reduction of
4. Regulating usage, whether by restricting activity overall emissions from the industry and the fair treatment
(limitation of airport slots, supervision of subsidies, mo- between companies governed by different legislations.
ratoriums on the construction of new infrastructures), by
restricting demand (modification of the price signal, al-

6 Impacts on jobs in France

The aviation sector accounts for 3.5% of global GDP with jections are conditioned by moderate traffic growth from 2025
over 60 million direct and indirect jobs. In France, civil avia- onwards, whether decided (via an international consensus) or
tion accounts for 4.3% of GDP (2018 figure), of which more suffered (for example as a result of COVID-19). Delaying this
than half is for aircraft manufacturing. moderation, letting air traffic to pick up again after 2024,
allows in the short term to avoid further workforce reduc-
Air transport activity in France brings together around 200 air tions, but all the more condemns long-term employment.
carriers and totals 85,000 direct jobs, 60% of which are in the
Ile-de-France region. On the industry side, French aeronautics The «ICEMAN» scenario, obviously far from being desirable,
posted a positive export balance of 31 billion Euros for around nevertheless remains the most likely option in our framework
350,000 direct and indirect jobs. of analysis. Subject to a moderation of effective growth from
2025, global traffic projected for 2050 is reduced by 19%
Staying within the global carbon budget envelope requires ad- compared to 2019, and aircraft production by 55%. How to
justing the traffic growth rate, regardless of the industrial best anticipate the consequences?
scenario: annual growth of +2.52% for the “MAVERICK” sce-
nario and -0.8% for the “ICEMAN” scenario. All these pro-

The employment situation in the aviation sector

(in 2018 in the world and in France)

Aviation industry
4,3 billion e.g. 60 millions
passengers weighs 3,5%
direct and indirect jobs.
of global GDP

Aviation industry
e.g. 435 000
172 billion weighs 4,3%
passengers direct and indirect jobs.
of France's GDP

Spread over 200 air carriers

and 120 airports.

26. https://propositions.conventioncitoyennepourleclimat.fr/pdf/ccc-rap-
port-final.pdf p.235 and 247

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 FLYING IN 2050: WHAT AVIATION IN A CONSTRAINED WORLD?

Air transportation sector in structure. Going from an equipment market (mostly) to a re-
newal market is in theory beneficial for decarbonisation since
France the diffusion of technical progress is then accelerated. Provi-
ded, however, that the companies that will survive the health
In July 2020, Air France announced that it wanted to cut crisis have enough cash to renew their fleets more frequently.
16% of its workforce by 2022, half of these positions cor- This seems to be impossible without regulatory initiatives or
responding to unreplaced departures. This difficult decision is additional financial support. And even so, in most scenarios
consistent with a hope of resumption of traffic in 2024 but it this is unfortunately not enough to avoid job loss in 2050.
doesn’t address the issue of long-term employment.
Given this, the diversification of the industrial base would
40% of the workforce is employed in support functions make it possible to compensate for the short-term decline
whose transfer to other sectors of activity poses few pro- in jobs while increasing the resilience of the sector and the
blems a priori. For the rest, the most represented job cate- local economies in which it is implemented, and ultima-
gory is that of commercial aircrew which accounts for 22% tely limit the risks of a «Detroit syndrome 28» which today
of jobs in the sector 27. The cabin crew members carry out concerns the Toulouse region.
a safety and first aid mission on the one hand, and of cus-
tomer relations on the other. This population is multilingual, A new story is to be written. This could take the form of an
adaptable, accustomed to travel, and trained in first aid, all Industrial Alliance for the Climate, an ad-hoc entity in
valuable skills in a low-carbon society: local tourism, per- charge of reallocating the production capacities current-
sonal assistance, rail transport for example. However, the ly underutilised to produce the equipment needed for the
rail transportation lead must be approached with caution, energy transition. Without calling into question the industrial
since the development of the train is notably conditioned by programmes launched by major contractors to decarbonise
the financing of infrastructure renewal, therefore by the aviation through technological means, this Alliance could play
sustainable political will to support a mode of transport long the role of an alternative contractor to the subcontracting
neglected apart from high-speed trains. On the other hand, chain, thus relieving companies that would like to join it from
the transfer of the majority of jobs will not be possible without the risks of diversification. The Alliance would also enable the
training support, therefore without planning. pooling of underutilised industrial resources in order to
pool the costs of transformation towards a more competi-
tive and adaptable industry.
Aircraft industry By putting aeronautical know-how at the service of the fight
against climate change, the Alliance would position itself as
Most of our scenarios involve a traffic limitation, therefore
a leading manufacturing player for the decarbonisation of
a reduction in the size of the fleets with the socio-economic
France (or even better, of Europe) and would participate in the
impacts already observed in the context of the health crisis.
industrial (re) localisation effort..
For the aircraft industry, this risk is amplified by the market

7 Conclusion
Limiting our GHG emissions and adapting our societies to the Air transport is part of our modernity; it has made us dream,
consequences of climate change are top priorities. The scienti- grow and open ourselves to others. For this dream to remain
fic consensus embodied by the IPCC makes the carbon budget a alive in the face of climate change threats, it is essential to
key metric for evaluating the transformation effort and leeway stay away from Manichaeism and share a lucid analysis of the
associated with a climate objective. Defining a sector-speci- situation. The ambition of this work is to have laid the founda-
fic carbon budget is therefore a political choice, prior to the tions for such an analysis and, beyond that, to have invited a
development of GHG reduction paths. In its absence, we have thorough democratic reflection on the place of air transporta-
adopted the neutral hypothesis of a «2°C» carbon budget in tion in a low-carbon world.
proportion to emissions from the aviation sector in 2018.

Our work shows that no realistic path can lead to the goal
without reducing traffic growth. Respecting the carbon bud-
get requires combining two levers: the progress of low-carbon
technologies and the adjustment of air traffic to the rhythm
of their deployments.

While our findings certainly contrast with the optimism of 27. FNAM, Branch report, 2019. https://www.fnam.fr/presse/publications
pre-COVID growth forecasts, they point the way to a sustai- 28. Towards a major economic crisis in Toulouse and its area. Toulouse; the
Detroit syndrome? By local representatives of Copernicus, Attac, the Uni-
nable preservation of the sector, compatible with climate
versité Populaire de Toulouse et des Amis du Monde Diplomatique, April 22nd
objectives, while limiting the impact on employment. But this 2020. Toulouse wants to avoid the “Detroit syndrome”, Matthieu Jublin, Al-
scenario is all the less likely as the sector is slow to commit to ternatives économiques, June 17th 2020.
the «2°C» trajectory described in this report.

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 FLYING IN 2050: WHAT AVIATION IN A CONSTRAINED WORLD?

Contacts

Press contact: Ilana Toledano, The Shift Project

[email protected]

Olivier Del Bucchia, co-author of the report

[email protected]

Gregoire Carpentier, co-author of the report

[email protected]

About The Shift Project

The Shift Project is a think tank that works for an economy freed from carbon constraints.
A non-profit organisation, recognised of general interest and guided by the requirement of
scientific rigor, our mission is to enlighten and influence the debate on the energy transition in
Europe. www.theshiftproject.org

About SUPAERO DECARBO

SUPAERO-DECARBO is a collective of more than 100 current and former students of ISAE
SUPAERO (one of the great schools that trains future engineers and decision-makers in
aeronautics and space), more than half of whom are working in the aviation industry or air
transport.
The SUPAERO-DECARBO aims to propose, support, accelerate and contribute to any initiative
allowing to increase the level of awareness and knowledge on climate change and to imagine the
world of tomorrow, in connection with school and industry.

With the contribution of:

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