IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, VOL. 19, NO.

1, JANUARY 2022 37

Low Emission Road Transport Scenarios: An

Integrated Assessment of Energy Demand, Air
Quality, GHG Emissions, and Costs
Elena De Angelis , Claudio Carnevale , Member, IEEE, Gioele Di Marcoberardino, Enrico Turrini,
and Marialuisa Volta , Member, IEEE
Abstract— This article proposes an integrated assessment lbr j Production lower bounds for each renewable source
methodology aimed at supporting decision-makers in design j [PJ].
energy production scenarios to power a low emissions traffic
fleet. The Multidimensional Air Quality (MAQ) system is used to
lbnk Production lower bounds for each nonrenewable
define and solve a decision problem that selects a set of energy source k [PJ].
p
production scenarios minimizing costs, impacts on air quality, ret Removal efficiency of end-of-pipe technology t for
and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. This study focuses on the pollutant p.
the road transport sector, that is responsible for 25% of European ubr j Production upper bounds for each renewable source
GHGs emissions and 39% of NOx emission, a precursor of
both NO2 and PM10 concentrations. The electrification of the
j [PJ].
light vehicle fleet and the use of biomethane to power heavy ubnk Production upper bounds for each nonrenewable
vehicles are analyzed, estimating the electricity demand increase, source k [PJ].
exploring different energy production mixes, and assessing the uci Energy policy cost [MC/yr].
impacts on air quality, costs, and GHGs according to the uct End of pipe measures unit cost [M C].
fuels/sources used to satisfy the energy demand. A case study
over Lombardy region, in Northern Italy, is proposed.
ucu Imported electricity cost [M C/PJ].
α Renewable energy sources share required.
Note to Practitioners—The study designs a new decision prob- εi Share of the total increase in energy demand that
lem implemented and solved through the Multidimensional Air can be produced by the source i .
Quality system (MAQ), an integrated assessment modeling tool.
Such system integrates a set of databases, models, optimization,
ηz Efficiency of the fuel z internal combustion engine.
and enumeration algorithms. Composing these elements, spe- ηe Electric vehicle engine efficiency.
cific multiobjective decision problems can be designed defining η pd,i Power production and distribution efficiency for
domain (mesoscale, regional, urban), objectives (air quality index, each source i .
greenhouse gas emissions, costs, population exposure, health
impacts), decision variables (technologies, behavioral measures,
energy production, fuel switch), and constraints. MAQ system
allows the comprehensive analysis of energy, technological, behav- B. Variables
ioral policies estimating impacts on air quality, human health,
GHGs emissions, and costs. alT Variation of activity level in road
transport [PJ].
Index Terms— Air quality integrated assessment modeling,
ali Activity level of each emitting activity in the
decision support systems, energy policies, environmental system
analysis, multiobjective decision problems. domain (excluding the electricity production
activities) [alu].
N OMENCLATURE
als,z Activity level of the vehicle class s and fuel z
A. Parameters [PJ].
n r Total number of renewable sources. AQIPM10 Air quality index: PM10 spatial yearly
n n Total number of nonrenewable sources. average concentration [μg/m3 ].
n t Total number of renewable and nonrenewable AQINO2 Air quality index: NO2 spatial yearly
sources. average concentration [μg/m3 ].
Manuscript received December 19, 2020; revised March 8, 2021; accepted d Electricity demand in the domain [PJ].
April 7, 2021. Date of publication April 29, 2021; date of current version d0 Base-case electricity demand [PJ].
January 6, 2022. This article was recommended for publication by Editor
M. Robba upon evaluation of the reviewers’ comments. This work was
d Electricity demand variation [PJ].
supported in part by the Hub Biomass Project [ID 1165247, POR- e Emission [t/yr].
g
FESR 2014-2020, and Regione Lombardia (IT)]. (Corresponding author: efi Emission factor of the fuel i for the greenhouse
Elena De Angelis.)
The authors are with the Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineer-
gas g [kt/alu].
p
ing, University of Brescia, 25123 Brescia, Italy (e-mail: [email protected]). efi Emission factor of the fuel i for the air
This article has supplementary material provided by the pollutant p [t/alu].
authors and color versions of one or more figures available at
https://doi.org/10.1109/TASE.2021.3073241.
GHG Greenhouse gases emissions in CO2 equivalent
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TASE.2021.3073241 emitted in a year in the domain [kt/yr].
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.
For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
38 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, VOL. 19, NO. 1, JANUARY 2022

u Electricity imported from all areas outside of But the need for further improvements in air quality and to
the domain [PJ]. massively reduce transport CO2 emission leads to study new
nrk Nonrenewable electricity production from solutions where electric vehicles (EVs) can play a significant
source k [PJ]. role. One drawback of a massive EV penetration is the
rj Renewable electricity production from source consequent rise in the electric energy demand. Therefore,
j [PJ]. researchers are focusing their attention on the electricity distri-
x Decision variable defined by renewable and bution network management avoiding voltage drops and ther-
nonrenewable sources electricity production mal overloads. Papadopoulos et al. [6] focused on the impacts
[PJ]. of EV charging on an urban residential distribution network,
x i0 Base-case electricity production for the comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The
source i [PJ]. assessment of plug-in EVs impacts on the networks is studied
x i Variation in electricity production from the considering the charging behavior, based on demographical
source i . statistical data [7], or defining approaches to assess distribution
TC Total policy cost [MC/yr]. network investment and incremental energy losses for different
ϑt Application rate of t-th end-of-pipe measures. penetration scenarios [8].
This article focuses on a different aspect. In this study,
Multidimensional Air Quality (MAQ) system is used to
C. Sets implement and solve a new decision problem where two air
G Greenhouse gases {CO2 , CH4 , N2 O, Fgas }. quality indexes, GHG emissions, and policy implementation
P Air pollutants {NOx , NH3 , VOC, PPM10 , PPM2.5 , costs are minimized. The decision variable is the electricity
SO2 }. production from renewable and nonrenewable sources, con-
S Set of considered road transport vehicles types. strained in a feasible set, defined by the source availability
Ti Set of end-of-pipe measures that abate pollutant in the domain and the minimum renewable energy produc-
emitted by the activity i . tion imposed through legislation. In this study, the imple-
Z Set of vehicle fuels. mentation of a low emission road traffic policy has been
analyzed.
Vehicle fleet electrification can have a large potential for
I. I NTRODUCTION
GHGs and pollutants emissions reduction, but it is strongly

A MONG the environmental problems that our society has

been facing in the last decades, air pollution reduction
and climate change control are the most discussed. Even
related to the energy mix used to produce electricity. Low-
carbon energy sources (renewable energy sources (RESs), and
nuclear energy) are dominating the electricity mix produced
if these two phenomena have different temporal and spatial in Europe, with RES accounting for the 29% of the European
scales, they are highly interconnected. In fact, climate change electricity production in 2016. This value includes also the
impacts on local air quality and, vice versa, air pollution has use of biomass (19%), that has a detrimental impact on
consequences on climate [1], [2]. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) air quality, because of high emissions of NOx , PPM, VOC,
emissions and air pollution have the same drivers, meaning and SO2 .
the human activities whose emissions alter the composition of The increase in electricity demand, that may be caused by
atmosphere. For example, livestock activities emit ammonia the electrification of transport and industrial sectors, needs to
(NH3 ), that is a precursor of secondary particulate matter (PM) be studied in a climate change-air quality win-win perspective,
and methane (CH4 ), a high potential global warming green- because the reduction of GHGs emissions and the improve-
house gas. Energy production and transport sector emit both ment in air quality need adequate decision support models
CO2 and various pollutants [mainly nitrogen oxides, sulfur aiming to help policy makers in the definition of emission
dioxides, volatile organic compounds (VOC), and primary PM abatement programs [9]. Furthermore, the need to reduce the
(PPM)], PM10 precursors. human activity (energy consumption, distance traveled, fuel
Although the last decades are characterized by a gradual use) is becoming a key element also in air quality planning,
decrease of global CO2 emissions in most sectors, road trans- where the only use of end-of-pipe technologies showed to be
port is still an exception: in 2016, European traffic GHGs insufficient [10], [11]. In this context, the integrated assess-
emissions were 26.1% higher compared to 1990 levels [3]. ment of energy and environmental systems, considering costs
Furthermore, the European road transport sector accounted and impacts on human health and ecosystems, is becoming
in 2017 for the 39% of total NOx emission, a precursor of more relevant [12], [13].
both NO2 and PM. Technological improvements in internal This article is organized as follows. Section II describes
combustion engines (ICEs) (to reach the stricter European the state-of-the-art in terms of energy system models and
emission standard) and on vehicle weight [4] have been integrated assessment models (IAMs). The formalization of
applied lately to reduce the traffic environmental impacts. the decision problem is presented in Section III. Then,
Also, the implementation of behavioral measures, such as the case study set-up and the presentation of the data col-
lowering speed limits or soft mobility policies [5], for the lected for the Lombardy domain are examined in Section IV.
reduction of fuel consumption or kilometers driven, has been Finally, the results and the conclusions are reported in
studied in the literature. Sections V and VI, respectively.
DE ANGELIS et al.: LOW EMISSION ROAD TRANSPORT SCENARIOS 39

II. S TATE - OF - THE -A RT the policy environmental impacts, not only in terms of CO2
A. Energy Policy Decision Support System emissions but also in terms of nitrogen oxides, PM, VOC,
The analysis of energy systems can have different scales sulfur dioxides, and ammonia emissions and, therefore, air
and various approaches. Several tools have grown in the past pollutants concentrations. Also, impacts on human health and
years to support policy makers in designing decarbonization ecosystems can be evaluated [12]. The integration is performed
transition. Therefore, various studies reviewed energy systems by computing the emission scenarios expected from the final
models and their methodologies [14]–[17] using different types energy consumption values given by the energy model.
of classification. At national/global scale, the most widely Air quality IAMs can have two main approaches [12]:
used are the general-purpose energy systems models that can scenario analysis and optimization approach.
be classified in optimization models and simulation models. In the scenario analysis, the IAM computes the impacts
Moreover, models focused only on the electricity system and of a set of emission reduction measures chosen a priori by
qualitative scenarios-based methods have been applied as a an expert or defined using source apportionment techniques
support in energy policy making [14]. [29], [30]. The relation between air pollution precursors
The European Commission has historically worked with the emission variation and the air quality indexes, for example,
simulation model Price-Induced Market Equilibrium System PM10 or NO2 yearly average concentrations, can be described
(PRIMES). This tool has been successfully applied to analyze by CTMs, that are physics/chemistry-based models, or by
the energy policy for Member States or at EU level [18]–[20]. surrogate models. Surrogate models are data-driven models
PRIMES model is composed of submodels, as many as the aimed at mimicking the links between emissions and con-
number of investigated agents, and it determines the equilib- centrations in a faster computational way. In the optimiza-
rium energy price solving an equilibrium problem with equi- tion approach, the IAM defines a set of efficient measures
librium constraints (EPEC). EPEC is a mathematical approach through cost-effectiveness or multiobjective optimization.
aimed at modeling the energy market considering the behav- In this case, only surrogate models can be used to link emis-
iors of supplier and consumers [21]. The model provides fore- sions and concentrations because CTM is not computationally
casts on how the energy systems may evolve in the future and efficient enough to deal with the number of simulations
the energy policy analysis is based on the comparison with the required [31], [32].
reference projections [22]. Furthermore, the PRIMES model At a national scale, the MESSAGEix model [33], an IAM
has been coupled with GAINS model (Greenhouse Gas - Air developed by IIASA, was applied in China to analyze energy
Pollution Interactions and Synergies) [23] to integrate the consumption and emissions at the refining process level. The
air quality problem in the analysis, including non-CO2 gases study [34] implements a scenario analysis approach where
and particulate emissions, therefore, assessing the impacts in introduces energy efficiency measures in the refining industry
terms of air pollutant concentrations and air quality policy processes, studying energy, materials and water consumption,
implementation costs. and the air pollutant emissions. In [35] the energy efficiency
The representation of future energy systems evolution can measures in the cement industry are under investigations
also be achieved using optimization models based on linear applying a framework composed by intensity use curves,
programming problems [14]. One of the most used energy a Geographical Information System - based energy model
system models is TIAM (TIMES, The Integrated MARKAL- [36], GAINS model [23], AIM/CGE (Asia–Pacific Integrated
EFOM System, IAM) [24], developed by the International Model / Computable General Equilibrium), and Health Impact
Energy Agency. It represents the possible evolutions of the Assessment (HEL) [37].
energy system at national/global scale over decades. The At regional scale, the multiobjective approach is imple-
output scenarios are the result of the minimization of the mented in RIAT+ (Regional Integrated Assessment Tool
discounted total system cost [25]. TIMES model was used plus) [31], applied in several cases study in Europe [38]–[40].
at national scale in Italy to define the Energy and Climate MAQ system was used in [10] to implement a multiobjective
Integrated National Plan, published in January 2020 (PNIEC, optimization where an air quality index (AQI) and the policy
Piano Nazionale Integrato Energia e Clima, [26]). This model costs are minimized. In [10] and [5], the decision variables of
created the scenarios for building the future Italian energy the problem are the application rates of emission abatement
strategy in terms of energy consumption reduction, RESs measures, both end-of-pipe and energy measures.
production, supply security, energy price gap, and phase-out
III. M ETHODOLOGY
of coal plants. The Italian TIMES scenarios were also used
to implement the Italian Air Pollution Control plan (PNCIA, In this section, the decision problem, formalized through the
[27]) where, from the final energy consumption, the air pollu- MAQ system [10], to evaluate energy policies, is presented.
tants emission reductions expected were estimated. Therefore, MAQ system integrates four modules: 1) a set of databases
the air quality impacts were assessed through the Chemical collecting the information related to the impacts, in terms of
Transport Model (CTM) (Flexible Air quality Regional Model cost and emission reductions, for a set of measures; 2) an AQI
(FARM) [28]). module, including models able to relate emission reduction to
the air quality levels; 3) a module that includes optimization
B. Air Quality IAMs and enumeration algorithms, allowing the solution of the
The energy system models must be, in general, coupled multiobjective decision problem; and 4) an impact module,
with air quality IAMs in order to comprehensively assess that defines the impact of the decisions in terms of air quality,
40 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, VOL. 19, NO. 1, JANUARY 2022

human/ecosystem health indicators, benefits, and costs. The The link between emissions and the m-th AQI can be
modularity of the structure allows to implement and solve formalized as
specific decision problems designed and formalized defining
spatial domain, objectives, decision variables, and constraints. AQIm = h(e(x)) with m = 1, . . . , m tot (5)
where m tot is the total number of AQI computed, in this
A. Decision Problem problem AQIPM10 and AQINO2 .
The decision problem proposed in this work to support MAQ system includes a set of models linking emissions and
energy scenario assessment is formalized as follows: AQI. In this work, artificial neural network (ANN)-based sta-
  tistical models are implemented to compute h(e(x, ϑ)). ANN
min f (x) = min AQIPM10 (x), AQINO2 (x), TC(x), GHG(x) (1) can describe the nonlinear relationship between precursors
x x
s.t. ε(x) < 0 (2) emissions (considering also adjacent cells emissions) and AQI.
Feed-forward neural structure has been adopted, the models
η(x) = 0 (3) are trained using a set of CTM runs that simulate different
where precursors emissions variations. This class of models, training,
1) AQIPM10 is the AQI for PM10 , PM10 yearly average and validation are presented in detail in [10] and [41].
g
spatial mean concentration (Section III-B1). 2) GHGs Emissions: greenhouse gases emissions GHGi
2) AQINO2 is AQI for NO2 , NO2 yearly average spatial depend on power production from each source i
mean concentration (Section III-B1). g   g
GHGi (x i ) = x i0 + x i ·ef i (6)
3) GHG represents the GHGs emissions in CO2 equivalent
emitted in a year in the domain (Section III-B2). where
4) TC is the total cost, that includes the energy policy costs, • g ∈ G = CO2 , CH4 , N2 O,Fgas
g
the implementation of new renewable energy plants, • ef i is the emission factor of the fuel i for the greenhouse
imported electricity cost, and the end-of-pipe measures gas g.
applied to reduce the air pollutant emissions (Section III- 3) Total Cost: The energy policy cost is described consid-
B3). ering the following unitary costs:
5) x is the decision variable set that includes the electricity • energy policy costs: EV, hydroelectric plants revamping,
productions from renewable (hydroelectric, photovoltaic PV plants (uci );
(PV), biomass, biofuels, biogas, waste) and nonrenew- • imported electricity cost (ucu ); and
able sources (natural gas, liquid fossil fuels, and coal) • cost of the end-of-pipe measures (uct ).
(Section III-C).
The unit costs are expressed in MC/alu, the Activity Level
6) ε and η constrain x in a feasible set, as defined in
Section III-C. Unit generally changes for different activities, x i is expressed
in petajoule (PJ).
B. Objectives The total cost of the policy scenario is
⎛ ⎞
1) Air Quality Indexes: The assessment of the air quality  
impacts depends on the emission variation due to the applica- TC(x) = ⎝x i · uci + ali · uct · ϑt ⎠ + ucu · u (7)
tion of emission abatement policies. They can include energy i t∈Ti
efficiency abatement measures, that vary energy consumption, where ali is the Activity Level of each emitting activity in the
and end-of-pipe measures, which reduce the emissions before domain (excluding the electricity production activities).
they are released in atmosphere. Emission variation of pol-
lutant p, due to the application of the energy policy, for
each electricity source i , depends on the increase in electricity C. Decision Variables and Constraints
production x i ⎛ ⎞ The decision variable x of the problem is defined by
   renewable and nonrenewable sources electricity production,
ei (x i ) = x i0 + x i ·ef i · ⎝1− ret ·ϑt ⎠
p p p
(4) respectively, r and nr
t∈Ti 
r
x= (8)
where nr
• p ∈ P = {NOx , NH3 , VOC, PPM10 , PPM2.5 , SO2 }
0
r and nr are related to the electricity demand d
• x i is the base-case electricity production for the source
i; 
nr 
nn
rj + nrk + u = d (9)
• x i is the variation in electricity production from the
j =1 k=1
source i due to the energy policy;
p
• ret is the removal efficiency of the end-of-pipe measure where
t for the pollutant p applied to the power plants; r j is the renewable electricity production from source j ;
• ϑt is the application rate of t-th end-of-pipe measure; n r is the total number of renewable sources;
• Ti is the set of end-of-pipe measures that abate emissions nrk is the nonrenewable fuel electricity production from
caused by the activity i . source k;
DE ANGELIS et al.: LOW EMISSION ROAD TRANSPORT SCENARIOS 41

n n is the total number of nonrenewable sources; the constraints defined in Section III-C). Due to the number of
u is the electricity imported from all areas outside the objectives and the complexity of the problem, an enumeration
domain; approach [42] is used. A set of feasible solutions are listed:
d is the electricity demand in the domain, computed as in they are computed assigning to r j and nrk randomly values
the following equations: according to the constraints related to electricity sources
production feasibility and legislation. Nondominated scenarios
d = d0 + d (10)
are selected among the feasible solutions.
nt
d = u + x i . (11)
i IV. C ASE S TUDY
d0 is the base-case electricity demand and d is the demand Defined the decision problem, it has been implemented and
increase caused by electrification of the light vehicle fleet. tested for the Lombardy region case study. In this section,
n t = n r + n n is the total number of sources (renewable and the problem constrains are computed defining the electricity
nonrenewable) in the domain. x i is computed for each road production projections and demand. We assess 1) the business
transport vehicle class s and fuel z as usual (BAU) electricity demand projection for 2030 and
2) different energy scenarios to meet the electricity demand
εi ·alT
x i = (12) due to the BAU projection and the vehicle fleet electrification.
ηe · η pd,i
where ηe and η pd are, respectively, the EV engine efficiency A. Base-Case Lombardy Energy Scenario: Data and
and the power production and distribution efficiency, εi is Projections
the share of the total increase in energy demand that can be
The Italian energy plan provides the future energy scenarios
produced by the source i . The variation of activity level in
according to European Commission 2050 Roadmap. Member
road transport alT can be computed as
 states are committed to reduce GHG emission by 85%–
alT = als,z · ηz (13) 90% with respect to 1990 levels. To reach this objective an
s∈S z∈Z intermediate step for 2030 has been defined in the “Clean
where Energy Package for all Europeans,” which states that 32% of
final gross European energy consumption will be produced by
• als,z is the activity level of the vehicle class s and fuel z;
RES [43]. The Italian plan for energy and climate (PNIEC)
• ηz is the efficiency of the fuel z ICE;
sets the RES objective for 2030 at 30% of final gross energy
• S is the set of considered road transport vehicle types;
consumption, divided for electricity production (55%), thermal
• Z is the set of vehicle fuels.
energy (33.9%), and transport (22%).
The amount of renewable energy produced in a scenario is In 2018, Lombardy region produced 65.4% of required
constrained. First, renewable energy production should be at electric power demand. The remaining energy demand was
least what imposed through legislation for a specific year (14) covered by the other Italian regions for 4.6% and imported
and second the maximum and the minimum energy produc- mainly from France and Switzerland, for 30.0% [44], [45].
tion possible for each renewable and nonrenewable source is The current energy production in Lombardy is based on fossil
subject to domain-specific limitations (15) and (16). These fuels (natural gas and coal), solid biomass, waste, solar energy,
constraints can be formalized as and hydroelectric plants [45], [46].
 nr
The energy production from fossil fuels is estimated from
r j ≥ α · (d − u) (14) the installed capacity of power plants. In Lombardy, there are
j =1
15 combined cycle plants with an average value of equivalent
lbrj ≤ r j ≤ ubrj (15) production hours of 1600 hr/yr. Nine of them produce only
lbnk ≤ nrk ≤ ubnk (16) electric energy with an electric efficiency assumed in ηE =
0.55. Six plants produce both thermal and electric energy
where
operating in cogeneration mode (ηE = 0.50, ηT = 0.40).
• α is the renewable share required by legislation;
r r
The maximum energy production can be up to 7800 hr/yr
• lb j and ub j are, respectively, the production upper and
[47], while the reduction presumed for 2030 is 70% of current
lower bounds for each renewable source j ; hours, 1120 hr/yr, as indicated by the Italian plan for Energy
n n
• lbk and ubk are, respectively, the production upper and
and Climate. Solid biomass and waste are mainly used to
lower bounds for each nonrenewable source k. produce thermal energy but, in few cases, also electricity
Upper and lower bounds depend on the availability of the is produced in small plants through cogeneration systems.
sources and plants in the domain and fuel-specific legislation Solid biomass, biogas, biofuels, and waste are classified as
limits. bioenergy.
The future of RES in Italy is mainly in the use of solar
D. Problem Solving PV systems, hydroelectric plants, and wind farms. Lombardy
The decision problem aims at selecting the not-dominated is not a suitable location for wind farm implementation due
energy scenario among N feasible scenarios, built distributing to frequent stagnant air, but it is the Italian region with the
the different sources for electricity production (according to highest number of installed PV plants, and it covers the 27.2%
42 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, VOL. 19, NO. 1, JANUARY 2022

TABLE I
E LECTRIC P OWER P RODUCTION S CENARIOS G IVEN BY THE MAQ S YS -
TEM D ATABASE VALUES AND THE PNIEC P ROJECTIONS (P ERCENTAGE
VARIATION W ITH R ESPECT TO 2018 AND VALUES IN PJ)

Fig. 1. Electric power production and import in Lombardy in 2018 (inner

circle) and projections for 2030 (outer circle) according to data reported by
Terna, GSE, and PNIEC.

of the Italian hydroelectric power. The maximum potential

hydroelectric energy production is reported by Terna report
[45] and in the PNIEC an increase of 7.0% of the hydroelectric
energy consumption is expected nationwide. Moreover, solar
PV production can be further improved by installing new PV
panels. Considering the regional area available (urbanized area
equal to 2464 km2 [48]) and the average solar energy potential,
there is still room for improvements in PV implementation
[49]. In fact, this is the RES for which the PNIEC expects the
maximum increase.
In Table I, the electricity production base-case in the MAQ
system has been projected according to Terna e GSE reports.
In 2030, taking into account a revamping of existing plants, Fig. 2. MAQ model domain, scenarios analysis results are evaluated over
the increase in hydroelectricity consumption can vary between Lombardy region (pink cells), the policy is applied on the whole Northern
Italy (light blue cells).
14% and 22% [50].
Considering the future improvements expected in energy TABLE II
efficiency and the gradual electrification of different activities, HDV S B IOMETHANE F UEL C ONSUMPTION
the electricity demand will increase by 2.3%. As shown
in Table IV the regional production cannot satisfy the increased
demand, producing an energy deficit equal to 28.2 PJ that
could be covered by increasing the import or further improving
production, using RES available in the region that still have
potential.
The sources distribution for the base-case scenario and
the 2030 scenario are shown in Fig. 1. In 2018 fossil fuels
electricity was 66% of the total electricity produced in the by biomethane. The assessment aims at estimating the max-
region, in 2030 it will be only the 44%. 56% of the production imum benefit achievable in terms of air pollution and GHGs
will be produced by RES. emissions and how the energy mix used to produce electricity
can impact on the results. Road transport emissions include
nonexhaust emissions due to tires, use of brakes, and road
B. Low Emission Road Transport Scenarios abrasion. These emissions are estimated to not be modified by
Electric mobility is growing fast, in 2018 the global electric the electrification of the fleet and the fuel switch in HDV.
car fleet exceeded 5.1 million units and the technological The impacts of shifting the whole HDV fleet on biomethane
advancement are leading also to new vehicle models and are shown in Table II.
cheaper batteries [51]. Different studies have been made to In order to compute the electricity demand due to the fleet
estimate the EV sales projection. Among these the percentage electrification, the activity level for each road transport vehicle
of EVs over the total vehicles sold in 2030 can vary between class and fuel and the corresponding ICE efficiency η are
5% and 50% [52]. needed, as described in (13). The ICE efficiencies considered
In this work, a low emission road transport scenario is depend on the fuel and class of vehicles. They are equal to
assessed: light duty vehicles, cars, and mopeds are shifted the mean value among all the vehicles belonging to a fuel-
to electricity and heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) are powered class. Moreover, the amount of electricity requested by the
DE ANGELIS et al.: LOW EMISSION ROAD TRANSPORT SCENARIOS 43

TABLE III
E NERGY D EMAND D UE TO V EHICLE F LEET E LECTRIFICATION (C ARS ,
LDV, AND M OTORCYCLES )

Fig. 3. Electricity production distribution in PJ over the sources available in

the region.

fleet must consider the electric engine efficiency (higher than

ICE efficiency) and the losses due to electricity production
and distribution. This latter value is given at the national
level by the Italian Energy Authority (ARERA). It defines
the conversion factor of electric energy in primary energy,
therefore, the production and distribution efficiency index is
equal to 46%. The electricity demand has been estimated for
the Lombardy region (142.6 PJ) processing data from vehicle
fleet database included in the MAQ system (Table III).
In Table IV, the final electricity demand (506.4 PJ) is com-
puted adding the 2030 energy demand projection (363.8 PJ)
and the increase due to vehicle fleet electrification (142.6 PJ).
C. Scenarios Design and Implementation
The electricity deficit of 121.6 PJ is distributed among the i Fig. 4. Objective space 1: Cost — NO2 concentrations.
different energy sources, varying εi according to the regional TABLE IV
energy production upper and lower bounds [see (15) and (16)]. R EGIONAL E LECTRIC E NERGY P RODUCTION , D EMAND AND I MPORT
The lower bound is the value defined by the PNIEC projection
and the upper bound depends on the production feasibility of
each power source, computed according to data reported in
Section III-A.
According to the enumeration approach defined in
Section III-D, 22 scenarios for Lombardy region (see Fig. 2)
are identified randomly varying the control variables, meaning
the sources electricity production, within the feasible set
(detailed values for all scenarios are reported in the supple-
V. R ESULTS AND D ISCUSSION
mentary material):
1) 13 scenarios respect the 55%–45% percentage distribu- Defined all the decision problem elements, MAQ model
tion between RES and fossil fuels, Italian objective for is applied to the simulation domain, to assess the cost and
2030; the impact on air quality and GHGs emissions of selected
2) in five scenarios there is an increase in RES share, up to scenarios.
a 80%–20% ratio; and
3) four scenarios have the ambitious goal of 100% RES
A. Electricity Production Scenarios
production.
In Fig. 3, the activity level distribution of the 22 scenarios The 22 scenarios assessed with MAQ are plotted in the
is presented for the different sources. There is no evident three objective spaces; scenarios highlighted in red are the
variation in fossil fuels: coal is always 0, as expected past nondominated solutions in each objective space.
2025 due to coal plants decommissioning. 1) Cost — mean yearly NO2 concentrations (Fig. 4):
The RESs have still room for improvement, except hydro- scenarios 1, 3, 6, 8, 11, 19 and 20 are nondominated
electric, where, according to data collected, only a maximum 2) Cost — mean yearly PM10 concentrations (Fig. 5):
increase of 12.4 PJ is feasible. scenarios 1, 3, 6, 8, 19, and 20 are nondominated.
44 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, VOL. 19, NO. 1, JANUARY 2022

Fig. 5. Objective space 2: Cost — PM10 concentrations.

Fig. 7. Percentage electricity production distribution over the sources for the
selected scenarios.
TABLE V
A IR P OLLUTION P RECURSORS P ERCENTAGE E MISSION R EDUCTION W ITH
R ESPECT TO THE BASE -C ASE 2018 FOR THE S ELECTED S CENARIOS

TABLE VI
C OST OVER THE BASE -C ASE 2018 AND O BJECTIVES R EDUCTION W ITH
R ESPECT TO THE BASE C ASE FOR THE S ELECTED S CENARIOS

Fig. 6. Objective space 3: Cost — CO2 equivalent emissions.

3) Cost — mean yearly CO2eq emissions (Fig. 6): scenar-

ios 8, 16, 19, 20, and 22 are nondominated.
Scenarios 1, 3, and 6 are efficient in the objective space 1 and
2 but they are dominated in objective space 3. Scenario 22 is
efficient accordingly to CO2 and cost but is dominated in air the abatement of NOx and SO2 is maximum, because the
quality objective spaces. electricity is produced mainly with “clean” RES, hydroelectric
Not dominated scenarios for all objectives are 8, 19, and and PV, that do not have direct pollutant emissions; further-
20. The selected scenarios have different activity levels distri- more, biogas and natural gas have a low NOx emission factor
bution over the electricity production sources, scenario 8 has (0.03–0.06 kt/PJ in modern power plants). In scenario 8, NOx
the minimum electricity RES production objective for 2030 emissions strictly depend on the use of biofuels, biomass, and
(55%), while in scenarios 19 and 20 production is totally from waste.
RES. Detailed distribution of the power production is shown
in Fig. 7.
C. Air Quality and GHG Emissions
Air quality indexes, GHG, and costs are reported
B. Emissions in Table VI, expressed, respectively, in percentage variation
In Table V, the percentage emission reductions with respect with respect to the base case and cost over the base case in
to the base-case scenario are reported. The main reductions MC/yr. Air quality impacts are significant for NO2 concentra-
are in NOx and SO2 . NOx is emitted from fuel combustion, tions, this is related to the abatement of NOx emissions. The
therefore, it is caused by energy production plants and, mainly, best result is obtained for scenario 20, with a 44.0% reduc-
by vehicles ICEs. SO2 is emitted by power production plants, tion corresponding to a maximum spatial average reduction
combustion in industries (a sector that is not under study in this of 9.8 μg/m3 .
article) and, to a lesser extent, by road transport. The vehicle PM10 reductions vary between 5.3% and 6.3%, meaning
fleet electrification and the biomethane use in HDV abate the a maximum reduction of 1.3 μg/m3 . PM10 concentrations
road transport sector NOx emission by 95.9% and SO2 emis- impacts are negligible, compared to NO2 . The concentrations
sion by 100%. The total emission reductions depend on the over the domain are mainly due to PPM (PPM10 and PPM2.5 )
electricity production sources used. In scenarios 19 and 20, emitted by residential heating sources, and to secondary PM
DE ANGELIS et al.: LOW EMISSION ROAD TRANSPORT SCENARIOS 45

the best energy mixes possible and which are the RESs to
invest on.
The results show, as expected, that the reduction of ICEs
fuel consumption of the current fleet has a great impact on
NO2 concentrations. The NO2 annual average concentration
is estimated to decrease over the whole domain (reductions
between 35.3%, scen 8, and 44.0%, scen 20). PM10 concentra-
tions in Northern Italy, often discussed because of the chron-
ical exceedances of the European limit values, are minimally
impacted by the scenarios analyzed (the maximum reduction
achievable is 6.3%).
Furthermore, the case study focuses on alternative electric
power sources and how the energy mix used can change the
impacts on air quality and CO2 emissions. The use of RESs is
still limited but it is growing fast, and clear paths are defined
by European and National regulation. RES includes biomass,
waste, and biofuels, emitting less CO2 with respect to natural
Fig. 8. NO2 average concentration in μg/m3 estimated for the efficient gas but more PPM, VOC, and SO2 ; therefore, negative impacts
scenarios and the base-case 2018 (BC). on air quality can arise from their application. On the other
hand, the use of fossil natural gas has a detrimental impact
formation caused by NOx , VOC, NH3 , and SO2 emissions. on GHG emission but a higher effect on air pollution concen-
While NOx and SO2 emission are considerably reduced, VOC tration reduction. “Cleaner” solution, such as PV panels and
and NH3 emission have negligible reductions in the scenarios hydroelectric plants have limitations due to the implementation
analyzed. cost (for the PV panels) and revamping feasibility and costs
Scenario 8 reduces CO2 equivalent emissions by 20%, while (hydroelectric plants).
scenarios 19 and 20 increase the GHG abatement to 29.1%, In the scenarios analyzed, the CO2 equivalent reduction
but the policy implementation cost in these two scenarios varies between 20.0% and 29.1% and the corresponding policy
is one order of magnitude higher. The use of RES already implementation costs increase by one order of magnitude.
implemented in the domain, such as biomass and biofuels, If we consider, for example, the use of biogas, PV, and
allows to reduce GHGs emissions at a moderate cost. hydroelectricity (scenario 19) compared to the use of only PV
In scenario 8, natural gas is used for the 45%, RES is mainly panels and hydroelectric plants (scenario 20), the results show
solar, hydroelectric, and biomethane. These sources have low how including biogas can have a small detrimental impact on
emission factors for air pollution precursors, but natural gas air quality (+0.3 μg/m3 in NO2 concentrations, negligible for
has higher CO2 emission factors, equal to 55.8 kt/PJ. PM10 ) but an increase in costs of 97%.
In Fig. 8, concentration maps over the domain are reported The work stresses the role of Integrated Assessment Mod-
for NO2 . The fleet electrification allows a diffuse reduction of eling tools in the design and implementation of decision
concentration exposure, that is critical at the base case, espe- problems for complex systems control, when policies impact
cially in the highly urbanized area Milan–Bergamo–Brescia. on different processes (air quality and climate change) and
Even if scenario 8 still presents some critical hotspots, espe- dimensions (economy, technological innovation, human and
cially in the Milan metropolitan area and the western border, ecosystem health).
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DE ANGELIS et al.: LOW EMISSION ROAD TRANSPORT SCENARIOS 47

Claudio Carnevale (Member, IEEE) received Enrico Turrini received the M.S. degree in envi-
the Laurea degree in electronic engineering and the ronmental engineering and the Ph.D. degree from
Ph.D. degree in information engineering from the the University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy, in 2012 and
University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy, in 2001 and 2016, respectively.
2005, respectively. He is a Post-Doctoral Researcher with the Depart-
He is an Associate Professor with the Department ment of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering,
of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Univer- University of Brescia. His main research interests
sity of Brescia. His main research interests are mod- are formalization and analysis of nonlinear decision
eling and control of deterministic nonlinear systems, models for planning and control of complex systems.
online and offline data assimilation techniques for
air quality applications, identification of nonlinear
systems, and decisional models in multiobjective optimization problems.

Marialuisa Volta (Member, IEEE) received

the Laurea degree in electrical engineering from
the Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy, in 1994,
Gioele Di Marcoberardino received the B.S. and the Ph.D. degree in information engineering
degree in energy engineering from the University of from the University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy,
Bologna, Bologna, Italy, in 2008, the M.S. degree in in 1999.
energy engineering and the Ph.D. degree in energy She is a Full Professor of control systems with
and nuclear science and technology from the Politec- the Department of Mechanical and Industrial
nico di Milano, Milan, Italy, in 2012 and 2015, Engineering, University of Brescia. She has
respectively. authored or coauthored more than 170 papers,
He is a Research Fellow with the Department of book chapters, and books. She coordinated EU
Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University and national projects developing methodologies and tools for air quality
of Brescia, Brescia, Italy. His main research interests control, involving research institutes, Small and medium-sized enterprises
are energy systems modeling and thermal stability of (SMEs), and decision-makers. Her research interests deal with nonlinear
working fluids for Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) and other innovative cycle systems analysis, control systems design, environmental systems modeling
for power production. and control, decision models, and integrated assessment modeling.