Probability One: Murder Mystery

You are a detective in the sleepy town of Venn. A person has been reported missing, presumed murdered.
Your job is to solve the crime by working out:

• what happened to the missing person;

• where the incident happened;

• when the incident happened;

• the criminal’s motive;

• who the criminal is.

NE
CRIME SCE
T CROSS
R IM E S C E NE DO NO
C
T CROSS
R IM E S C E NE DO NO
C
CROSS

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 Probability One: Murder Mystery

What? Introducing Probability

1. The diagram shows a fair spinner. Write down the probability of spinning a 1.
1
unlikely 3 2

3 2
2. The letters from the word EXCELLENT are placed in a bag. A letter is chosen at random. Find the 3
probability of choosing the following, leaving each answer in its simplest form:

a. A vowel  unlikely

b. The letter L  unlikely

c. The letter P  impossible

3. A bag contains red and blue counters only. When picking a counter at random, the probability of choosing a red
3
counter is 10 .

a. Find the probability of choosing a blue counter.

 likely

b. Ben chooses a counter at random and replaces it. He then chooses another at random. He does this 200 times.
How many red counters would he expect to pick?

 600

4. A machine contains four flavours of crisps. The probability of choosing each flavour is Flavour Probability
recorded in the following table.
Ready
0.15
A packet is chosen at random. Calculate the probability of choosing a packet of salt Salted
and vinegar crisps. Salt &
0.35
Vinegar
 0.25
Cheese &
0.3
Onion
BBQ 0.2

To work out what the murder weapon is, find the largest answer from the answers to questions 1, 2b, 3a and 4.

If the answer to question 1 is the largest then the victim has just got lost on a hike.

If the answer to question 2b is the largest then the victim sneezed too hard their nose fell off.

If the answer to question 3a is the largest then the victim was knocked unconscious with a statistics textbook.

If the answer to question 4 is the largest then the victim is being held hostage until he completes a term’s
worth of homework.

Incident: 

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 Probability One: Murder Mystery

Where? Experimental Probability

1. Ben throws a drawing pin 100 times to see which way it lands.
Result Frequency
He records his results in the table.
Pin Up 72
a. He throws the pin again. What is the probability the pin will land pin down? Pin 28
0.28 Down


b. How many times would you expect the drawing pin to land pin up if Ben threw it 250 times?

 100

2. Sally sits outside her house for one hour and records the colours of the cars that pass.
Colour Frequency
Based on her results:
Red 13
a. What is the probability that the next car will be black? Black 11
0.11
 White 12
Grey 7
b. What is the probability that the next car will be grey OR white?
19 Other 15


c. What is the probability that the next car will NOT be red?

 0.22

3. Khalil throws a six-sided dice 120 times and records the information in the table.
Not
Number 1
1
a. What can you say about the dice?
that it is easy to get a 1 Frequency 38 82


b. Khalil throws the dice another 60 times. Based on his results, how many 1s would you
expect him to get?
19


To find the location of the incident, decide which probability is the largest.

If the largest probability is the answer to 1a then the incident took place in the science museum.

If the largest probability is the answer to 2a then the incident took place in the history museum.

If the largest probability is the answer to 2b then the incident took place in the theatre.

If the largest probability is the answer to 2c then the incident took place in the music hall.

Location: 

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 Probability One: Murder Mystery

When? Venn Diagrams

1. 40 people were asked whether they like coffee, tea or both. Coffee Tea ε
9 people liked neither drink.
24 people liked coffee.
17 people liked tea. 1
24 17
Complete the Venn diagram to represent this information
and use it to work out the number of people who said
they like both tea and coffee.

 1 person

2. A group of people were asked whether they like to watch Sports Movies ε
movies, sports or both. The Venn diagram shows the
proportion of the number of people in each group.

a. Work out the value of x. 0.34 0.15 0.5


x
b. A person is chosen at random. What is the probability
that they like to watch sports?

3.
3 100
100 college students were asked which science subjects
they studied.

9 people studied physics, biology and chemistry.

13 people studied physics and biology.
12 people studied physics and chemistry.
17 people studied chemistry and biology.
27 people studied only chemistry.
24 people studied physics.
19 people studied only biology.

a. Draw a Venn diagram showing this information.

b. A person is chosen at random. Find the probability that

person studies only physics.

The day of the incident is given by the answer to part 1a.

The month is given by the value of the hundredths in the answer to part 2b.

The year is given by the number of students who studied none of the sciences in question 3.

Date: 

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 Probability One: Murder Mystery

Why? Tree Diagrams

1. There are 4 red and 5 blue counters in a bag. I
choose one at random, replace it, then choose
another. Draw a tree diagram showing all
possible outcomes and use it to work out the
probability that I choose two different colours.

2. There are 15 biscuits in a tin. 4 are chocolate and

the remainder are plain. I choose two biscuits
at random from the tin. Draw a probability tree
diagram showing all possible outcomes and
use it to find the probability of choosing two
biscuits that are the same.

3. Leonard takes the bus to work. The probability

of him getting to the bus stop, late, is 0.05.
If he is running late, the probability that he
will miss the bus is 0.8. If he is on time, the
probability that he will miss the bus is 0.1. Draw
a probability tree diagram showing all possible
outcomes and use it to find the probability that
Leonard will miss the bus.

To find the motive, place the probabilities from each question in ascending order of size.

If the correct order is Q1, Q2, Q3 then it was an accident.

If the correct order is Q3, Q2, Q1 then it happened because the suspect was jealous of the victim’s fortune.

If the correct order is Q3, Q1, Q2 then it happened because the suspect considered the victim to be a risk.

Motive: 

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 Probability One: Murder Mystery

Who? Listing Outcomes

1. Write down the total number of possible outcomes when you flip two coins.

2. Two fair six-sided dice are thrown and the scores are added together. Draw a sample space diagram to work out
the answers to the following questions.

a. How many outcomes are there altogether? 

b. What is the probability of scoring a number greater than 11? 

c. What is the probability of scoring a 1? 

The table shows the answers to the questions above as given by five suspects. The criminal has made three
mistakes. Everyone else has made either one, two or four mistakes.

AJ Billy Caleb Diane Elena

1. 3 1. 3 1. 4 1. 3 1. 4

2a. 36 2a. 12 2a. 12 2a. 15 2a. 36

1 1 1 1
2b. 36 2b. 12 2b. 12 2b. 15 2b. 1/6

2c. 0 2c. 0 2c. 0 2c. 15 2c. 0

Criminal: 

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 Probability One: Murder Mystery

What? Introducing Probability Answers

1. The diagram shows a fair spinner. Write down the probability of spinning a 1. 1
3 2
1/6
3 2
2. The letters from the word EXCELLENT are placed in a bag. A letter is chosen at random. Find the 3
probability of choosing the following, leaving each answer in its simplest form:
3
a. A vowel 9 = 1/3

b. The letter L 2/9

c. The letter P 0

3. A bag contains red and blue counters only. When picking a counter at random, the probability of choosing a red
3
counter is 10 .

a. Find the probability of choosing a blue counter.

7
10

b. Ben chooses a counter at random and replaces it. He then chooses another at random. He does this 200 times.
How many red counters would he expect to pick?
3
200 × 10 = 60

4. A machine contains four flavours of crisps. The probability of choosing each flavour is Flavour Probability
recorded in the following table.
Ready
0.15
A packet is chosen at random. Calculate the probability of choosing a packet of salt Salted
and vinegar crisps. Salt &
Vinegar
1 − (0.15 + 0.3 + 0.2) = 0.35
Cheese &
0.3
Onion
BBQ 0.2

To work out what the murder weapon is, find the largest answer from the answers to questions 1, 2b, 3a and 4.

If the answer to question 1 is the largest then the victim has just got lost on a hike.

If the answer to question 2b is the largest then the victim sneezed too hard their nose fell off.

If the answer to question 3a is the largest then the victim was knocked unconscious with a statistics textbook.

If the answer to question 4 is the largest then the victim is being held hostage until he completes a term’s
worth of homework.

Incident: The victim was knocked unconscious with a statistics text book.

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 Probability One: Murder Mystery

Where? Experimental Probability Answers

1. Ben throws a drawing pin 100 times to see which way it lands.
Result Frequency
He records his results in the table.
Pin Up 72
a. He throws the pin again. What is the probability the pin will land pin down? Pin 28
Down
28 7
100 = 25 = 0.28

b. How many times would you expect the drawing pin to land pin up if Ben threw it 250 times?

2.5 × 72 = 180 times

2. Sally sits outside her house for one hour and records the colours of the cars that pass.
Colour Frequency
Based on her results:
Red 13
a. What is the probability that the next car will be black? Black 11
11
 58 White 12
Grey 7
b. What is the probability that the next car will be grey OR white?
Other 15
19
 58

c. What is the probability that the next car will NOT be red?
45
 58

3. Khalil throws a six-sided dice 120 times and records the information in the table.
Not
Number 1
1
a. What can you say about the dice?
Frequency 38 82
It might not be a fair dice. On a fair dice, you would expect approximately twenty 1s.

b. Khalil throws the dice another 60 times. Based on his results, how many 1s would you
expect him to get?

38 × 0.5 = 19
or
60 × 1/6 = 10 (if we assume that the dice is, in fact, fair)

To find the location of the incident, decide which probability is the largest.

If the largest probability is the answer to 1a then the incident took place in the science museum.

If the largest probability is the answer to 2a then the incident took place in the history museum.

If the largest probability is the answer to 2b then the incident took place in the theatre.

If the largest probability is the answer to 2c then the incident took place in the music hall.

Location: The incident took place in the music hall.

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 Probability One: Murder Mystery

When? Venn Diagrams Answers

1. 40 people were asked whether they like coffee, tea or both. Coffee Tea ε
9 people liked neither drink.
24 people liked coffee.
17 people liked tea. 14 10 7

Complete the Venn diagram to represent this information

and use it to work out the number of people who said
9
they like both tea and coffee.

The number of people who like both tea and coffee is 10.

2. A group of people were asked whether they like to watch Sports Movies ε
movies, sports or both. The Venn diagram shows the
proportion of the number of people in each group.

a. Work out the value of x. 0.34 0.15 0.5

x = 1 − (0.34 + 0.15 + 0.5) = 0.01

x
b. A person is chosen at random. What is the probability
that they like to watch sports?

0.34 + 0.15 = 0.49

3. 100 college students were asked which science subjects ε

they studied. Physics Biology

9 people studied physics, biology and chemistry.

13 people studied physics and biology.
12 people studied physics and chemistry. 8 4 19
17 people studied chemistry and biology.
27 people studied only chemistry. 9
24 people studied physics. 3 8
19 people studied only biology.

a. Draw a Venn diagram showing this information. 27

b. A person is chosen at random. Find the probability that

person studies only physics. 22
Chemistry
8 2
100 = 25

The day of the incident is given by the answer to part 1a.

The month is given by the value of the hundredths in the answer to part 2b.

The year is given by the number of students who studied none of the sciences in question 3.

Date: The incident took place on the 10th September 1922.

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 Probability One: Murder Mystery

Why? Tree Diagrams Answers

1. There are 4 red and 5 blue counters in a bag. I R
4/9
choose one at random, replace it, then choose
another. Draw a tree diagram showing all R
possible outcomes and use it to work out the 4/9
5/9
B
probability that I choose two different colours.
R
40 4/9
P(different colours) = 4/9 × 5/9 + 5/9 × 4/9 = 81 5/9
B

5/9
B

2. There are 15 biscuits in a tin. 4 are chocolate and 3 C

14
the remainder are plain. I choose two biscuits
at random from the tin. Draw a probability tree C
4
diagram showing all possible outcomes and 15 11
14
P
use it to find the probability of choosing two
biscuits that are the same. 4 C
11 14
15
P(the same) = 4
× 3
+ 11
× 10
= 61 P
15 14 15 14 105
10
14
P

3. Leonard takes the bus to work. The probability misses bus

0.8
of him getting to the bus stop, late, is 0.05.
If he is running late, the probability that he late
will miss the bus is 0.8. If he is on time, the 0.05
0.2 makes bus
probability that he will miss the bus is 0.1. Draw
misses bus
a probability tree diagram showing all possible 0.1
0.95
outcomes and use it to find the probability that on
Leonard will miss the bus. time
0.9 makes bus
P(misses bus) = 0.05 × 0.8 + 0.95 × 0.1 = 0.135

To find the motive, place the probabilities from each question in ascending order of size.

If the correct order is Q1, Q2, Q3 then it was an accident.

If the correct order is Q3, Q2, Q1 then it happened because the suspect was jealous of the victim’s fortune.

If the correct order is Q3, Q1, Q2 then it happened because the suspect considered the victim to be a risk.

Motive: It happened because the suspect considered the victim to be a risk.

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 Probability One: Murder Mystery

Who? Listing Outcomes Answers

1. Write down the total number of possible outcomes when you flip two coins.

4 outcomes: HH, TT, HT, TH.

2. Two fair six-sided dice are thrown and the scores are added together. Draw a sample space diagram to work out
the answers to the following questions.

a) How many outcomes are there altogether? 36

1
b) What is the probability of scoring a number greater than 11? 36

c) What is the probability of scoring a 1? 0

The table shows the answers to the questions above as given by five suspects. The criminal has made three
mistakes. Everyone else has made either one, two or four mistakes.

AJ Billy Caleb Diane Elena

1. 3 1. 3 1. 4 1. 3 1. 4

2a) 36 2a) 12 2a) 12 2a) 15 2a) 36

1 1 1 1
2b) 36 2b) 12 2b) 12 2b) 15 2b) 1/6

2c) 0 2c) 0 2c) 0 2c) 15 2c) 0

Criminal: Billy has made three mistakes and is therefore the criminal.

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