Csc424 assignment

A.
I. What is the basic difference between modeling and simulation?
II. Explain the role of probability in simulation.

B.
Suppose that a game is played with a single dice which is assumed to be fair. In this game player
wins #20.00 if a 2 turns up, #40.00 if a 4 turns up and loses #30.00 if a 6 turns up. For other
outcomes, he neither loses nor wins. Find the expected sum of money to be won. [6½marks]

C.
lassify the following system in static, dynamic, continuous or discrete?
i. Flight of an aircraft [1½marks]

ii. Population of a country [1½marks]

iii. Tossing of a coin [1½marks]

iv. A college [1½marks]

D.
Explain the following key elements of queueing system.

i. Customers ii. Servers

E.
The life of a device used to inspect cracks in aircraft wings is given by X, a continuous random variable
assuming all values in the range 𝑥 ≥ 0. The pdf of the lifetime, in years, is as follows:

𝑓
ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
ii. what is probability that the life of the device is between 2 and 3 years?

iii. Find the measure of the central tendency of a random variable. (I.e. Mean)
iv. measure of the spread or variation of the possible values of X around the mean (i.e.
Variance of the device)

F.
Explain the following characteristic of queuing system
a. i. System capacity ii. The arrival process
b. Differentiate between the followings
i. Queue behaviour and Queue Discipline ii. Infinite and Finite calling population

G.

Costumers arrive at random to a license bureau at rate of 𝜆 = 50 customers per hour. Currently, there are 20-
clerks, each serving 𝜇 = 5 customers per hour on the average.

i. Calculate the long-run, or steady-state and average utilization of a servers.

 ii. If the office manager asks whether the number of servers can be decreased, what is the
condition necessary to satisfy

iii. What are the possibilities for the manager to consider

H.
The tables below illustrate the simulation procedure when there is more than one service channel. Consider a
computer technical support centre where personnel take calls and provide service. The time between calls
ranges from 1 to 4 minutes, with distribution as shown in Table 2.11. There are two technical support people -
Able and Baker. Able is more experienced and can provide service
faster than Baker. The distributions of their service times are shown in Tables 2.12 and 2.13. Times are
usually a continuous measure.

List the possible System State, Entities, Events, Activities and Delay

a. (i) List all the steps in a simulation study

(ii) Draw the flow chart of (1) above

b. Differentiate between model verification and validation

I.
Explain in brief the following types of system studies:
i. Static ii. Dynamic iii. Continuous iv. Discrete

a. Classify the following system in static, dynamic, continuous or discrete?

i. Flight of an aircraft ii. Population of a country iii. Tossing of a coin iv. A college

b. Explain the mid square method of generating random numbers. By using it, generate 3 random numbers
corresponding to an initial number 2412.

J.
a. Define random variable and differentiate between continuous and discrete random variable.
b. Define Expected value and variance of a random variable. What is expected value and variance of
Uniform distribution function over the interval [a, b]?
c. Consider a random experiment where two dice are thrown together. Assume a random variable X represent
sum of two faces (ordered pair). Find E[X]

k.
a. Explain how, random numbers are helping in simulation of a system? Explain the property of random
numbers.

b. By using multiplicative random number generator method, generate the six random numbers, given initial
value X0=2, m=7, a=3

c. Explain why we need Monte Carlo simulation? Using it, calculate area covered by irregular shape in the
following triangle. Triangle has base 20 cm and height 15 cm. You can choose 10,000 sample
points in the triangle.

L.

a. Write short notes on the following basic probability concepts . (6marks)

i. Events ii. Sample space iii. Sample points
b. Find the probability that a single toss of a dice will result in a number less than 3, if
i. No other information is given and (3marks)
ii. it is given that the toss resulted in an even number. (4marks)
c. A maths teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed both tests and 42% of the class passed the
1
first test. What percent of those who passed the first test also passed the second test? (4 marks)
2
M.
a. Construct a table for a probability of arrival of sum of the numbers on two faces of
two dice thrown simultaneously.
b. Calculate the value of E(x).
c. Determine the variance (Var) of the random variables X in (ai).

N.
. The table below shows the distribution of UP residents (16 years old and over)

attending college in 2000 according to age

Age 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35

Number in 2000 (thousands) 2,678 4,786 1,928 1,201 1,763

a. Draw the probability distribution histogram for X = the age of a randomly chosen college student

b. The Lifetime, in years, of a satellite placed in orbit is given by the following pdf:
 − 0.4 x
f ( x )={0.4 e , x ≥ 0 0 , otherwise
(i) What is the probability that this satellite is still “alive” after 5 years? [5marks]
(ii) What is the probability that the satellite dies between 3 and 6 years from the time it is placed
in orbit? [4½marks]
O.
In an office there are two typists in a typing pool. Each typist can type an average of 6
letters/hour. If letters arrive for typing at the rate of 10 letters/hour, calculate,

(a) What fraction of the time are all the two typists busy? (8marks)

1
(b) What is the average number of letters waiting to be typed? (4 marks)
2

(c) What is the waiting time for a letter to be typed? (5marks)

p.
The time between mechanic request for tools in a large plant is normally distributed with mean
of 910 minutes and standard deviation of 1.5 minutes. Time to fill requests is also normal with
mean of 9.5 minutes and standard deviation of 1.0 minute. Simulate the system for first 15
requests assuming a single server.
a. Develop a Flowchart and a computer simulation program and obtain the said results for 1000
arrivals of customers. (12marks)
b. Determine the average waiting time of the customers and the percentage capacity utilization.
1
(5 marks)
2
Q.
Model and Simulate any system of your choice using any Simulation tool.