Test-1

(1) The best-fitted trend line is one for which sum of squares of residuals or errors is
[A] Positive
[B] Minimum
[C] Negative
[D] Maximum
Answer: Minimum
(2) The following are the movement(s) in the secular trend
[A] Smooth
[B] Regular
[C] Steady
[D] All of the above
Answer: All of the above
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(3) Graph of time series is called
[A] Line graph
[B] Trend
[C] Historigram
[D] Histogram
Answer: Historigram
(4) Additive model for time series Y = . . .
[A] T $\times$ S $\times$ C $\times$ I
[B] T $-$ S $-$ C $-$ I
[C] T + S + C + I
[D] None of these
Answer: T + S + C + I
(5) Prosperity, Recession, and depression in a business is an example of
[A] Irregular Trend
[B] Secular Trend
[C] Cyclical Trend

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[D] Seasonal Trend
Answer: Cyclical Trend
(6) In the theory of time series, shortage of certain consumer goods before the
annual budget is due to
[A] Seasonal Variation
[B] Secular Trend
[C] Irregular Variations
[D] Cyclical Variation
Answer: Seasonal Variation
(7) In the measurement of the secular trend, the moving averages:
[A] Smooth out the time series
[B] Give the trend in a straight line
[C] Measure the seasonal variations
[D] None of these
Answer: Smooth out the time series
(8) Multiplicative model for time series is Y = . . .
[A] T $\times$ S $\times$ C $\times$ I
[B] T + S + C + I
[C] T $-$ S $-$ C $-$ I
[D] None of these
Answer: T $\times$ S $\times$ C $\times$ I
(9) A set of observations recorded at an equal interval of time is called
[A] Array data
[B] Data
[C] Geometric Series
[D] Time series data
Answer: Time series data
(10) A fire in a factory delaying production for some weeks is
[A] Secular Trend
[B] Cyclical Trend
[C] Irregular Trend

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[D] Seasonal Trend
Answer: Irregular Trend
Test-2
(1) An orderly set of data arranged in accordance with their time of occurrence is
called:
[A] Arithmetic series
[B] Harmonic series
[C] Geometric seriess
[D] Time series
Answer: Time series
(2) A time series consists of:
[A] Short-term variations
[B] Long-term variations
[C] Irregular variations
[D] All of the above
Answer: All of the above

(3) Secular trend can be measured by:

[A] Two methods
[B] Three methods
[C] Four methods
[D] Five methods
Answer: Four methods
(4) The secular trend is measured by the method of semi-averages when:
[A] Time series based on yearly values
[B] Trend is linear
[C] Time series consists of even number of values
[D] None of them
Answer: Trend is linear
(5) Increase in the number of patients in the hospital due to heat stroke is:
[A] Secular trend

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[B] Irregular variation
[C] Seasonal variation
[D] Cyclical variation
Answer: Seasonal variation
(6) The systematic components of time series which follow regular pattern of
variations are called:
[A] Signal
[B] Noise
[C] Additive modeln
[D] Multiplicative model
Answer: Signal
(7) The unsystematic sequence which follows irregular pattern of variations is
called:
[A] Noise
[B] Signal
[C] Linear
[D] Non-linear
Answer: Noise
(8) In time series seasonal variations can occur within a period of:
[A] Four years
[B] Three years
[C] One year
[D] Nine years
Answer: One year
(9) Wheat crops badly damaged on account of rains is:
[A] Cyclical movement
[B] Random movement
[C] Secular trend
[D] Seasonal movement
Answer: Random movement
(10) The method of moving average is used to find the:

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[A] Secular trend
[B] Seasonal variation
[C] Cyclical variation
[D] Irregular variation
Answer: Secular trendtren
Test-3
(1) The best fitting trend is one which the sum of squares of residuals is:
[A] Negative
[B] Least
[C] Zero
[D] Maximum
Answer: Least
(2) In fitting of a straight line, the value of slope remains unchanged by change of:
[A] Scale
[B] Origin
[C] Both origin and scale
[D] None of them
Answer: Origin
(3) Depression in business is:
[A] Secular trend
[B] Cyclical
[C] Seasonal
[D] Irregular
Answer: Cyclical
(4) Semi-averages method is used for measurement of trend when:
[A] Trend is linear
[B] Observed data contains yearly values
[C] The given time series contains odd number of values
[D] None of them
Answer: Trend is linear
(5) Moving-averages:

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[A] Give the trend in a straight line
[B] Measure the seasonal variations
[C] Smooth-out the time series
[D] None of them
Answer: Smooth-out the time series
(6) The rise and fall of a time series over periods longer than one year is called:
[A] Secular trend
[B] Seasonal movements
[C] Cyclical variations
[D] Irregular variations
Answer: Cyclical variations
(7) A time series has:
[A] Two components
[B] Three components
[C] Four components
[D] Five components
Answer: Four components
(8) The multiplicative time series model is:
[A] Y = T + S + C + I
[B] Y = TSCI
[C] Y = a + bX
[D] Y = a + bX + cX2
Answer: Y = TSCI
(9) The additive model of the time series is:
[A] Y = T + S + C + I
[B] Y = TSCI
[C] Y = a + bX
[D] Y = a + bX + cX2
Answer: Y = T + S + C + I
(10) The difference between the actual value of the time series and the forecasted
value is called:

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[A] Residual
[B] Sum of variation
[C] Sum of squares of residual
[D] All of the above
Answer: Residuar
Test-4
(1) In autoregressive models _______ ?
[A] Current value of dependent variable is influenced by current values of
independent variables
[B] Current value of dependent variable is influenced by current and past values of
independent variables
[C] Current value of dependent variable is influenced by past values of both
dependent and independent variables
[D] None of the above
Answer: Current value of dependent variable is influenced by past values of both
dependent and independent variables
(2) Which of the following is true for white noise?
[A] Mean =0
[B] Zero autocovariances
[C] Zero autocovariances except at lag zero
[D] Quadratic Variance
Answer: Zero autocovariances except at lag zero
Gkseries

(3) For the following MA (3) process yt = μ + Εt + θ1Εt-1 + θ2Εt-2 + θ3Εt-3 , where
σt is a zero mean white noise process with variance σ2
[A] ACF = 0 at lag 3
[B] ACF =0 at lag 5
[C] ACF =1 at lag 1
[D] ACF =0 at lag 2
Answer: ACF =0 at lag 5

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(4) The pacf (partial autocorrelation function) is necessary for distinguishing
between ______ ?
[A] An AR and MA model is_solution: False
[B] An AR and an ARMA is_solution: True
[C] An MA and an ARMA is_solution: False
[D] Different models from within the ARMA family
Answer: An AR and an ARMA is_solution: True
(5) Second differencing in time series can help to eliminate which trend?
[A] Quadratic Trend
[B] Linear Trend
[C] Both A & B
[D] None of the above
Answer: Quadratic Trend
(6) Which of the following cross validation techniques is better suited for time series
data?
[A] k-Fold Cross Validation
[B] Leave-one-out Cross Validation
[C] Stratified Shuffle Split Cross Validation
[D] Forward Chaining Cross Validation
Answer: Forward Chaining Cross Validation
(7) Find 95% prediction intervals for the predictions of temperature in 1999.
These results summarize the fit of a simple exponential smooth to the time series.

[A] 0.3297 2 * 0.1125

[B] 0.3297 2 * 0.121
[C] 0.3297 2 * 0.129n
[D] 0.3297 2 * 0.22
Answer: 0.3297 2 * 0.121
(8) Which of the following statement is correct?
1. If autoregressive parameter (p) in an ARIMA model is 1, it means that there is no
auto-correlation in the series.

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2. If moving average component (q) in an ARIMA model is 1, it means that there is
auto-correlation in the series with lag 1.

3. If integrated component (d) in an ARIMA model is 0, it means that the series is

not stationary.

[A] Only 1
[B] Both 1 and 2
[C] Only 2
[D] All of the statements
Answer: Only 2
(9) In a time-series forecasting problem, if the seasonal indices for quarters 1, 2, and
3 are 0.80, 0.90, and 0.95 respectively. What can you say about the seasonal index of
quarter 4?
[A] It will be less than 1
[B] It will be greater than 1
[C] It will be equal to 1
[D] Seasonality does not exist
Answer: It will be greater than 1
(10) A common method known as ratio-to-trend analysis used to
[A] Deseasonalize data
[B] Take moving average
[C] Remove multicollinearity
[D] Represent graphical curve
Answer: Deseasonalize data
Test-5
(1) Time series data have a total number of components?
[A] 3
[B] 6
[C] 5

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[D] 4
Answer: 4
(2) Seasonal variations are
[A] Short term variation
[B] Long term variation
[C] Sudden variation
[D] None
Answer: Short term variation
(3) In moving average method we cannot find trend values of some
[A] End Periods
[B] Middle Period
[C] Starting and End Periods
[D] Starting Periods
Answer: Starting and End Periods
(4) The most commonly used mathematical method for measuring the trend is
[A] Semi Average
[B] Moving Average
[C] Free Hand Curve
[D] Least Squares
Answer: Least Squares
(5) A rise in prices before Eid is an example of
[A] Cyclical Trend
[B] Secular Trend
[C] Irregular Trend
[D] Seasonal Trend
Answer: Seasonal Trend
(6) Which of the following is an example of time series problem?
1. Estimating number of hotel rooms booking in next 6 months.

2. Estimating the total sales in next 3 years of an insurance company.

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3. Estimating the number of calls for the next one week.

[A] Only 3
[B] 1 and 2
[C] 2 and 3
[D] 1,2 and 3
Answer: 1,2 and 3
(7) Which of the following is not an example of a time series model?
[A] Naive approach
[B] Exponential smoothing
[C] Moving Average
[D] None of the above
Answer: None of the above
(8) Sum of weights in exponential smoothing is _____.
[A] <1
[B] 1
[C] >1
[D] None of the above
Answer: 1
(9) The last period’s forecast was 70 and demand was 60. What is the simple
exponential smoothing forecast with alpha of 0.4 for the next period.
[A] 63.8
[B] 65
[C] 62
[D] 66
Answer: 66
(10) What does autocovariance measure?
[A] Linear dependence between multiple points on the different series observed at
different times
[B] Quadratic dependence between two points on the same series observed at
different times

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[C] Linear dependence between two points on different series observed at same time
[D] Linear dependence between two points on the same series observed at different
times
Answer: Linear dependence between two points on the same series observed at
different times
Test-6

(1) A complete cycle consists of a period of:

[A] Prosperity and depression
[B] Prosperity and recovery
[C] Prosperity and recession
[D] Recession and recovery
Answer: Prosperity and recession
(2) Most frequency used mathematical model of a time series is:
[A] Additive model
[B] Mixed model
[C] Multiplicative model
[D] Regression model
Answer: Multiplicative model

(3) A time series consists of:

[A] No mathematical model
[B] One mathematical model
[C] Two mathematical models
[D] Three mathematical models
Answer: Three mathematical models
(4) In a straight line equation Y = a + bX; a is the:
[A] X-intercept
[B] Slope
[C] Y-intercept
[D] None of them

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Answer: Y-intercept
(5) In a straight line equation Y = a + bX; b is the:
[A] Y-intercept
[B] Slope
[C] X-intercept
[D] Trend
Answer: Slope
(6) Value of b in the trend line Y = a + bX is:
[A] Always negative
[B] Always positive
[C] Always zero
[D] Both negative and positive
Answer: Both negative and positive
(7) In semi averages method, we decide the data into:
[A] Two parts
[B] Two equal parts
[C] Three parts
[D] Difficult to tell
Answer: Two equal parts
(8) In fitting a straight line, the value of slope b remain unchanged with the change
of:
[A] Scale
[B] Origin
[C] Both (a) and (b)
[D] Neither (a) and (b)
Answer: Origin
(9) Moving average method is used for measurement of trend when:
[A] Trend is linear
[B] Trend is non linear
[C] Trend is curvilinear
[D] None of them

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Answer: Trend is linear
(10) When the trend is of exponential type, the moving averages are to be computed
by using:
[A] Arithmetic mean
[B] Geometric mean
[C] Harmonic mean
[D] Weighted mean
Answer: Geometric mean

Test-7
(1) A pattern that is repeated throughout a time series and has a recurrence period
of at most one year is called:
[A] Cyclical variation
[B] Irregular variation
[C] Seasonal variation
[D] Long term variation
Answer: Seasonal variation
(2) A business cycle has:
[A] One stage
[B] Two stages
[C] Three stages
[D] Four stages
Answer: Four stages
(3) When the production of a thing is maximum, this stage is called:
[A] Boom
[B] Recovery
[C] Recession
[D] Depression
Answer: Boom
(4) When the production of a thing is minimum, this stage is called:
[A] Prosperity

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[B] Recession
[C] Recovery
[D] Depression
Answer: Depression
(5) When the production of thing is increasing towards prosperity, this stage is
called as:
[A] Recession
[B] Recovery
[C] Boom
[D] Depression
Answer: Recovery
(6) When the production of thing is decreasing, this stage is called:
[A] Recession
[B] Recovery
[C] Prosperity
[D] Depression
Answer: Recession
(7) The straight line is fitted to the time series when the movements in the time series
are:
[A] Nonlinear
[B] Linear
[C] Irregular
[D] Upward
Answer: Linear
(8) If an annual time series consisting of even number of years is coded, then each
coded interval is equal to:
[A] Half year
[B] One year
[C] Both (a) and (b)
[D] Two years
Answer: Both (a) and (b)

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(9) A second degree parabola has:
[A] One constant
[B] Two constant
[C] Three constant
[D] No constant
Answer: Three constant
(10) The normal equations in fitting a second degree parabola are:
[A] Two
[B] Three
[C] Four
[D] Five
Answer: Three
Test-8
(1) The second degree parabola is fitted to the time series when the variations are:
[A] Linear
[B] Nonlinear
[C] Random
[D] Downward
Answer: Nonlinear
(2) In fitting a second degree parabola, the value of c is not affected with the change
of :
[A] Scale
[B] Origin
[C] Both (a) and (b)
[D] Neither (a) and (b)
Answer: Origin
(3) For odd number of year, formula to code the values of X by taking origin at
centre is:
[A] X = year – average of years
[B] X = year – first year
[C] X = year – last year

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[D] X = year – ½ average of years
Answer: X = year – average of years
(4) For even number of years when origin is in the centre and the unit of X being one
year, then X can be coded as:
[A] X = (year – average of years)/2
[B] X = year – average of years
[C] X = year – 0.5 average of years
[D] X = average of years – year
Answer: X = year – average of years
(5) For even number of years when origin is in the centre and the unit of X being
half year, then X can be coded as:
[A] X = year – average of years
[B] X = 2(year – average of years)
[C] X = (year – average year)/2
[D] X = year – ½ average of years
Answer: X = 2(year – average of years)
(6) In semi averages method, if the number of values is odd then we drop:
[A] First value
[B] Last value
[C] Middle value
[D] Middle two values
Answer: Middle value
(7) The trend values in freehand curve method are obtained by:
[A] Equation of straight line
[B] Graph
[C] Second degree parabola
[D] All of the above
Answer: Graph
(8) ∑X = ∑X3 = 0, if origin is:
[A] At the end of time period
[B] Any where

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[C] At the middle of time period
[D] At the beginning of time period
Answer: At the middle of time period
(9) Tests of hypotheses (t-test, f-test) incase of heteroscedasticity disturbance are
[A] Still valid
[B] Consistent
[C] No longer valid
[D] Unbiased
Answer: No longer valid
(10) While performing correlation, we draw scatter plot to check assumptions of
[A] Linearity
[B] Multicollinearity
[C] Unbiasness
[D] Homoscedasticity
Answer: Linearity
Test-9
(1) The long term trend of a time series graph appears to be:
[A] Straight-line
[B] Upward
[C] Downward
[D] Parabolic curve or third degree curve
Answer: Parabolic curve or third degree curve
(2) Indicate which of the following an example of seasonal variations is:
[A] Death rate decreased due to advance in science
[B] The sale of air condition increases during summer
[C] Recovery in business
[D] Sudden causes by wars
Answer: The sale of air condition increases during summer

(3) The most commonly used mathematical method for measuring the trend is:
[A] Moving average method

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[B] Semi average method
[C] Method of least squares
[D] None of them
Answer: Method of least squares
(4) A trend is the better fitted trend for which the sum of squares of residuals is:
[A] Maximum
[B] Minimum
[C] Positive
[D] Negative
Answer: Minimum
(5) Decomposition of time series is called:
[A] Historigram
[B] Analysis of time series
[C] Histogram
[D] Detrending
Answer: Analysis of time series
(6) The fire in a factory is an example of:
[A] Secular trend
[B] Seasonal movements
[C] Cyclical variations
[D] Irregular variations
Answer: Irregular variations
(7) Increased demand of admission in the subject of computer in Pakistan is:
[A] Secular trend
[B] Cyclical trend
[C] Seasonal trend
[D] Irregular trend
Answer: Secular trend
(8) Damages due to floods, droughts, strikes fires and political disturbances are:
[A] Trend
[B] Seasonal

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[C] Cyclical
[D] Irregular
Answer: Irregular
(9) The general pattern of increase or decrease in economics or social phenomena is
shown by:
[A] Seasonal trend
[B] Cyclical trend
[C] Secular trend
[D] Irregular trend
Answer: Secular trend
(10) In moving average method, we cannot find the trend values of some:
[A] Middle periods
[B] End periods
[C] Starting periods
[D] Between extreme periods
Answer: Between extreme periods
Test-10
(1) Which of the following is not a necessary condition for weakly stationary time
series?
[A] Mean is constant and does not depend on time
[B] Autocovariance function depends on s and t only through their difference |s-t|
(where t and s are moments in time)
[C] The time series under considerations is a finite variance process
[D] Time series is Gaussian
Answer: Time series is Gaussian
(2) Which of the following is not a technique used in smoothing time series?
[A] Nearest Neighbour Regression
[B] Locally weighted scatter plot smoothing
[C] Tree based models like (CART)
[D] Smoothing Splines
Answer: Tree based models like (CART)

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(3) If the demand is 100 during October 2016, 200 in November 2016, 300 in
December 2016, 400 in January 2017. What is the 3-month simple moving average
for February 2017?
[A] 300
[B] 350
[C] 400
[D] Need more information
Answer: 300
(4) Suppose, you are a data scientist at Analytics Vidhya. And you observed the
views on the articles increases during the month of Jan-Mar. Whereas the views
during Nov-Dec decreases.
Does the above statement represent seasonality?

[A] TRUE
[B] FALSE
[C] Can’t Say
Answer: TRUE
(5) Which of the following graph can be used to detect seasonality in time series
data?
1. Multiple box

2. Autocorrelation

[A] Only 1
[B] Only 2
[C] 1 and 2
[D] None of these
Answer: 1 and 2
(6) Stationarity is a desirable property for a time series process.
[A] TRUE
[B] FALSE

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Answer: TRUE
(7) Imagine, you are working on a time series dataset. Your manager has asked you
to build a highly accurate model. You started to build two types of models which are
given below.
Model 1: Decision Tree model

Model 2: Time series regression model

At the end of evaluation of these two models, you found that model 2 is better than
model 1. What could be the possible reason for your inference?

[A] Model 1 couldn’t map the linear relationship as good as Model 2

[B] Model 1 will always be better than Model 2
[C] You can’t compare decision tree with time series regression
[D] None of these
Answer: Model 1 couldn’t map the linear relationship as good as Model 2
(8) Consider the following set of data:
{23.32 32.33 32.88 28.98 33.16 26.33 29.88 32.69 18.98 21.23 26.66 29.89}

What is the lag-one sample autocorrelation of the time series?

[A] 0.26
[B] 0.52
[C] 0.13
[D] 0.07
Answer: 0.13
(9) Any stationary time series can be approximately the random superposition of
sines and cosines oscillating at various frequencies.
[A] TRUE
[B] FALSE
Answer: TRUE

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(10) Two time series are jointly stationary if _____ ?
[A] They are each stationary
[B] Cross variance function is a function only of lag h
[C] Only A
[D] Both A and B
Answer: Both A and B

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