‫ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ – ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ‪:‬‬

‫�ﻈﺮﻳـﺎً ﻫﻨــﺎﻙ �ــﻮﻋﲔ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﳉــﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳــﺘﺎﺗﻴﻜﻴﺔ ‪ ، Static‬ﻭﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴـﺔ ‪ . Dynamic‬ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻳﻌــﺎﰿ ﻛــﻞ ﻣﻜﻮ�ــﺎﺕ‬
‫‪ Exogenously‬ﺃﻱ ﻣﻌﻄـﺎﻩ‪.‬‬ ‫‪Determined‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﲟﺎ ﰲ ﺫﻟـﻚ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫـﺎ ﻣـﺘﻐﲑ ﺧـﺎﺭﺟﻲ‬
‫‪ ، Endogenously‬ﺃﻱ ﲢــﺪﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺘــﻪ ﺩﺍﺧــﻞ‬ ‫‪Determined‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜـﺎ�ﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠــﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘــﻴﺾ ﻳﻌــﺎﰿ ﺍﻻﺳــﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻛﻤــﺘﻐﲑ ﺩﺍﺧﻠــﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺎﺗﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺑﺪﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﺴـﻢ ﺇﱃ ﻗﺴـﻤﲔ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻐﻠـﻖ ‪ closed‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜـﺎ�ﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻮﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻔﺘﻮﺡ ‪. Open‬‬

‫‪ o‬ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻐﻠﻖ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻮ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺪﻫﺎ ﻟﻴﻮ�ﺘﻴﻒ ‪ Leontief‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻋﻮﳉـﺖ ﻛـﻞ ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﳋـﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻛﺴـﻠﻊ‬
‫ﻭﺳﻴﻄﺔ )ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺼـﲑ ﺣﻴـﺚ ﻳﺘﻤﻴـﺰ ﺍﻻ�ﻔـﺎﻕ ﺍﳊﻜـﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺼـﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺨﺰﻭﻥ ‪..‬ﺍﱁ ﺑﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺒﺎﺕ(‪.‬‬

‫‪R.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﻳﻌـﺎﰿ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﻞ ‪ Labour Supply‬ﻛﻨـﺎﺗﺞ ﻟﻼﺳـﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﺋﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠـﻰ ﺣـﺪ ﺗﻌـﺒﲑ‬
‫‪ Bharadwaj‬ﻓﺎﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻌﱪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺎﻛﻨﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻒ ﻟﻠﺤﻴﻮﺍﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﻘﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﳌﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻣﺎ ﲝﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻔﻲ ﻓﻘﻂ ﳌﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻄﺔ ﻟﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯ�ﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻐﻠﻖ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻭ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ‬

‫‪X = AX‬‬ ‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ‬

‫= ‪Xi‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬ ‫ﺍ�ﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‬

‫= ‪X ij‬‬ ‫‪j‬‬ ‫ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻻ�ﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ‪ i‬ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‬

‫‪ o‬ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻔﺘﻮﺡ‪:‬‬

‫‪Autonomous Demend‬‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳊﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﺯ ﺍﲡﺎﻩ ﻟﻔﺼـﻞ ﻋﻨﺎﺻـﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﻘﻞ‬
‫)ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺗﺸــﻤﻞ ﻋـﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺳــﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﺋﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﺠــﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴــﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻ�ﻔـﺎﻕ ﺍﳊﻜــﻮﻣﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟــﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺨــﺰﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻷﺩﻕ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ( ﻣـﻦ ﻋﻨﺎﺻـﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﺳـﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴـﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﺍﻟﻨـﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﱂ ﻳﻌـﺪ ﻳﻌـﺎﰿ ﻛﻤـﺘﻐﲑ ﺩﺍﺧﻠـﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﻛﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ‪ .‬ﻭ�ﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺘﻬﺎ ﻛﺎﻵﺗﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(3‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪X i = Σ a ij X j + Fi‬‬
‫‪j =1‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ‬
 ‫= ‪Fi‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻉ‬

‫ﺃﻭ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ‬

‫‪AX + F = X‬‬

‫ﺃﻭ ﺑﺈﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﱰﺗﻴﺐ ﳓﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ‪:‬‬

‫‪(I − X ) X = F‬‬ ‫…‬ ‫)‪(4‬‬

‫‪X = ( I − A) −1 F‬‬ ‫…‬ ‫)‪(5‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ‬
‫‪A‬‬ ‫ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻄﺔ =‬
‫‪X‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬
‫‪F‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ‬
‫‪I‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ‬
‫= ‪( I − A) −1‬‬ ‫ﻣﻘﻠﻮﺏ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﻟﻴﻮ�ﺘﻴﻒ‬
 ‫‪ o‬ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻟﻌﻞ �ﻘﻄـﺔ ﺍﳋـﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴـﻴﺔ ﺑـﲔ ﻫـﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﺎﺫﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﺴـﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪) ،‬ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺎﺗﻴﻜﻴﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻫـﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺧـﲑﺓ ﺗﻌـﺎﰿ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻛﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﻛﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﺍﻟﻨـﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﺧـﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻈـﺎﻡ ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺣـﲔ ﺗﻌـﺎﰿ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴـﺔ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻛﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻭﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺍ�ﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ‪ j‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﻻ ﳛﺘـﺎﺝ ﻓﻘـﻂ‬
‫ﺇﱃ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻭﺳﻴﻄﺔ ‪ aij‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻄـﺎﻉ ‪ i‬ﻭﻟﻜـﻦ ﺃﻳﻀـﺎً ﺇﱃ ‪ bij‬ﻣـﻦ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌـﺎﻝ‪ .‬ﺃﻣـﺎ ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒـﺎﺕ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌـﺎﻝ ﻫـﺬﻩ ﻓﺘﻜـﻮﻥ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﳍـﺎ �ﻔـﺲ ﺃﺑﻌـﺎﺩ ﻣﺼـﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﺳـﻴﻂ ‪ A Matrix‬ﻭﻳﻄﻠـﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬـﺎ ﻋـﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺼـﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﻌـﺎﻣﻼﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴــﺔ ‪ ، Capital Matrix Coefficients‬ﻓــﺈﺫﺍ ﻛــﺎﻥ ﻟ ـﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺛﻼﺛــﺔ ﻗﻄﺎﻋــﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼــﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻓــﺈﻥ ﻫــﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺼــﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬
‫)ﻟﻼﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ‪ ( B‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺘﻬﺎ ﻛﺎﻵﺗﻲ‪:‬‬

‫⎤ ‪⎡b11b12 b13‬‬
‫⎥⎥ ‪B = ⎢⎢b21b22 b23‬‬ ‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(6‬‬
‫⎦⎥ ‪⎢⎣b31b32 b33‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ – ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ ﻳﻌﺎﺩ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺘﻬﺎ ﻛﺎﻵﺗﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪X t = AX t + B( X t +1 − X t ) + F t‬‬ ‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(7‬‬

‫ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻔﺘﻮﺡ‬

‫) ‪X t = AX t + B( X t +1 − X t‬‬

‫ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻐﻠﻖ‬

‫ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺮﻏﻮﺏ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫‪BΔX t‬‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫‪ΔX t‬‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃ�ﻪ‬ ‫‪X t +1 − X t‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ (6‬ﻛﺎﻵﺗﻲ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ΔX t‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻻ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﳌﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬
 ‫‪X + F Δ X = AX + B‬‬ ‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(8‬‬

‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻗﺪ ﰎ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻩ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎً ﳌﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈ�ﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬
‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻟﻴﻮ�ﺘﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪X = ( I − A − rB) −1 F‬‬ ‫‪...‬‬ ‫)‪(9‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪ r ’ s‬ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺮﻳﺔ ‪ Diagonal Matrix‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺒﲔ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺎﺗﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺑﻮﺿﻮﺡ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴـﺚ ﳛـﺪﺩ ﻣـﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ )‬
‫= ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﱄ ‪ +‬ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺨﺰﻭﻥ( ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﺪﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﻛﻤﻌﻄﻰ ‪ Given‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺃ�ﻪ ﻃﺎﳌﺎ ﺃﺩﺧﻠﻨﺎ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻛﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﺍﻟـﺰﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺿﻤﻨﻴﺎً‪.‬‬