Module 1 - Psychology
Module 1 - Psychology
RETRIEVAL PRACTICE
• How are animal and human research participants protected?
their personal information confidentially, and to fully debrief all participants.
using human participants to obtain informed consent, to protect them from harm and discomfort, to treat
proposals. Ethical principles developed by international psychological organizations urge researchers
serve to protect animal and human welfare. At universities, Institutional Review Boards screen research
ANSWER: Animal protection legislation, laboratory regulation and inspection, and local ethics committees
MODULE
Statistical Reasoning in
MODULE
Accurate statistical
Accurate statisticalunderstanding
understandingbenefits
benefitseveryone.
everyone.ToTo bebeanan educated
educated person
per-
today
son today
is toisbe
to able
be able
to apply
to apply
simple
simple
statistical
statistical
principles
principles
to everyday
to everyday
reasoning.
reasoning.
One
needn’t
One needn’t
memorize
memorize
complicated
complicated
formulasformulas
to think more
to think
clearly
moreandclearly
critically
andabout
critically
data.
about
Off-the-top-of-the-head
data. estimates often misread reality and then mislead the public.
Someone
Off-the-top-of-the-head
throws out a big, estimates
round number.
often misread
Othersreality
echo and
it, and
thenbefore
misleadlong
thethe
public.
big, When setting goals, we love big round
round number
Someone throwsbecomes
out a big,
public
round
misinformation.
number. OthersA fewecho
examples:
it, and before long the big, numbers. We’re far more likely to
round number becomes public misinformation. A few examples: want to lose 20 pounds than 19 or 21
• Ten percent of people are homosexual. Or is it 2 to 4 percent, as suggested by various
pounds. We’re far more likely to retake
• Ten percent
national of people
surveys are homosexual.
(Chapter 11)? Or is it 2 to 4 percent, as suggested by various
the SAT if our verbal plus math score
national
• We surveys?
ordinarily use only 10 percent of our brain. Or is it closer to 100 percent is just short of a big round number,
• We ordinarily
(Chapter 2)? use only 10 percent of our brain. Or is it closer to 100 percent? such as 1200. By modifying their be-
• The human brain has 100 billion nerve cells. Or is it more like 40 billion, as havior, batters are nearly four times
suggested by extrapolation from sample counts?
counts (Chapter 2)? more likely to finish the season with a
The point to remember: Doubt big, round, undocumented numbers. That’s actually a .300 average than with a .299 average
lesson we intuitively appreciate, by finding precise numbers more credible (Oppenheimer (Pope & Simonsohn, 2011).
et al., 2014). When U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry sought to rally American support
in 2013 for a military response to Syria’s apparent use of chemical weapons, his argument
gained credibility from its precision: “The United States government now knows that at
least 1429 Syrians were killed in this attack, including at least 426 children.”
Statistical illiteracy also feeds needless health scares (Gigerenzer et al., 2008, 2009,
2010). In the 1990s, the British press reported a study showing that women taking a
particular contraceptive pill had a 100 percent increased risk of blood clots that could
produce strokes. This caused thousands of women to stop taking the pill, leading to a
wave of unwanted pregnancies and an estimated 13,000 additional abortions (which
also are associated with increased blood-clot risk). And what did the study find? A 100
©Patrick Hardin
percent increased risk, indeed—but only from 1 in 7000 to 2 in 7000. Such false alarms
underscore the need to teach statistical reasoning and to present statistical information
more transparently.
“Figures can be misleading—so I’ve
written a song which I think expresses
Describing Data the real story of the firm’s performance
this quarter.”
4-1 How do we describe data using three measures of central tendency, and what
1-11
is the relative usefulness of the two measures of variation?
Once researchers have gathered their data, they may use descriptive statistics to orga-
nize that data meaningfully. One way to do this is to convert the data into a simple bar
graph, as in FIGURE 1.8 4.1 on the next page, which displays a distribution of different
brands of trucks still on the road after a decade. When reading statistical graphs such
as this, take care. It’s easy to design a graph to make a difference look big (Figure 1.8a)
4.1a)
1.8b). The secret lies in how you label the vertical scale (the y-axis).
or small (Figure 4.1b).
The point to remember: Think smart. When viewing graphs, read the scale labels
and note their range.
70
RETRIEVAL PRACTICE
▼ FIGURE 4.1
1.8 98 60
Read the scale labels 50
• An American truck manufacturer
offered graph (a)—with actual brand 97 40
names included—to suggest the much 30
greater durability of its trucks. What
does graph (b) make clear about the 96 20
varying durability, and how is this 10
accomplished?
makes clear. 95 0
functioning after 10 years, which graph (b) Our Brand Brand Brand Our Brand Brand Brand
rank as 95% and up, so almost all are still brand X Y Z brand X Y Z
for graph (b) is from 0 to 100. All the trucks Brand of truck Brand of truck
graph (a) is only from 95 to 100. The range
is labeled. The range for the y-axis label in (a) (b)
ANSWER: Note how the y-axis of each graph
Transtock/SuperStock
√ Sum of (deviations) =
√ 204 = 5.0
√ Sum of (deviations)2 =
√ 2000 = 15.8
2
The range of scores—the gap between the lowest and highest—provides only a range the difference between the high-
crude estimate of variation. A couple of extreme scores in an otherwise uniform group, est and lowest scores in a distribution.
such as the $950,000 and $1,420,000 incomes in Figure Figure 4.2,
1.9, will create a deceptively standard deviation a computed mea-
large range. sure of how much scores vary around
The more useful standard for measuring how much scores deviate from one another the mean score.
is the standard deviation. It better gauges whether scores are packed together or dis- normal curve (normal distribution)
persed, because it uses information from each score. The computation (see TABLE 4.1 1.4 a symmetrical, bell-shaped curve that
for an example) assembles information about how much individual scores differ from describes the distribution of many types
the mean. If your college or university attracts students of a certain ability level, their of data; most scores fall near the mean
(about 68 percent fall within one standard
intelligence scores will have a relatively small standard deviation compared with the
deviation of it) and fewer and fewer near
more diverse community population outside your school. the extremes.
You can grasp the meaning of the standard deviation if you consider how scores
tend to be distributed in nature. Large numbers of data—heights, weights, intelligence
scores, grades (though not incomes)—often form a symmetrical, bell-shaped distribu-
tion. Most cases fall near the mean, and fewer cases fall near either extreme. This
bell-shaped distribution is so typical that we call the curve it forms the normal curve.
As FIGURE 1.10
4.3 shows,
shows,aa useful
useful property
property of
of the
the normal
normal curve
curve is that roughly 68
percent of the cases fall within one standard deviation on either side of the mean.
RETRIEVAL PRACTICE
• The average of a distribution of scores is the ______________. The score that shows up
most often is the ______________. The score right in the middle of a distribution (half
the scores above it; half below) is the ______________. We determine how much scores
vary around the average in a way that includes information about the ______________
of scores (difference between highest and lowest) by using the ______________
______________ formula.
ANSWERS: mean; mode; median; range; standard deviation
© The New Yorker Collection, 1988, Mirachi from cartoonbank.com.
Significant Differences
4-2 How do we know whether an observed difference can be generalized to other
1-12
populations?
Data are “noisy.” The average score in one group (children who were breast-fed as
babies, for example)
babies) could coulddiffer
conceivably conceivably differ
from the fromscore
average that in another group (children who
were bottle-fed as babies) not because of any real difference but merely because of
chance fluctuations in the people sampled. How confidently, then, can we infer that
All Rights Reserved.
an observed difference is not just a fluke—a chance result from the research sample?
For guidance, we can ask how reliable and significant the differences are. These infer-
ential statistics help us determine if results can be generalized to a larger population.
“The poor are getting poorer, but with the
rich getting richer it all averages out in When Is an Observed Difference Reliable?
the long run.” In deciding when it is safe to generalize from a sample, we should keep three principles
in mind:
1. Representative samples are better than biased samples. The best basis for general-
izing is not from the exceptional and memorable cases one finds at the extremes
but from a representative sample of cases. Research never randomly samples the
whole human population. Thus, it pays to keep in mind what population a study
has sampled.
2. Less-variable observations are more reliable than those that are more variable.
As we noted earlier in the example of the basketball player whose game-to-game
points were consistent, an average is more reliable when it comes from scores with
low variability.
3. More cases are better than fewer. An eager prospective student visits two uni-
versity campuses, each for a day. At the first, the student randomly attends two
classes and discovers both instructors to be witty and engaging. At the next cam-
pus, the two sampled instructors seem dull and uninspiring. Returning home,
the student (discounting the small sample size of only two teachers at each insti-
tution) tells friends about the “great teachers” at the first school, and the “bores”
at the second. Again, we know it but we ignore it: Averages based on many cases
are more reliable (less variable) than averages based on only a few cases.
The point to remember: Smart thinkers are not overly impressed by a few anecdotes.
Generalizations based on a few unrepresentative cases are unreliable.
MODULE 4: St a t i s t i c a l R e a s o n i n g i n E v e r y d a y L i f e 47
Syndicate, Inc.
among hundreds of thousands of first-
born and later-born individuals indicate
a highly significant tendency for first-
born individuals to have higher average scores than their later-born siblings (Kristensen
& Bjerkedal, 2007; Zajonc & Markus, 1975). But because the scores differ by only one
to three points, the difference has little practical importance.
The point to remember: Statistical significance indicates the likelihood that a result
will happen by chance. But this does not say anything about the importance of the result.
RETRIEVAL PRACTICE
• Can you solve this puzzle?
The registrar’s office at the University of Michigan has found that usually about 100
students in Arts and Sciences have perfect marks at the end of their first term at the
University. However, only about 10 to 15 students graduate with perfect marks. What
do you think is the most likely explanation for the fact that there are more perfect
marks after one term than at graduation (Jepson et al., 1983)?
extremely low and high marks at the end of the first term.
ANSWER: Averages based on fewer courses are more variable, which guarantees a greater number of For a 9.5-minute
video synopsis of psychology’s
• ______________ statistics summarize data, while ______________ statistics determine if scientific research strategies, visit
data can be generalized to other populations. LaunchPad’s Video: Research
ANSWERS: Descriptive; inferential
Methods.
48 MODULE: 4: St a t i s t i c a l R e a s o n i n g i n E v e r y d a y L i f e
MODULE
TEST
YOUR-
SELF THINKING CRITICALLY WITH PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE
Test yourself repeatedly throughout your studies. This will not 6. You wish to survey a group of people who truly represent
only help you figure out what you know and don’t know; the the country’s adult population. Therefore, you need to ensure
testing itself will help you learn and remember the information that you question a sample of the population.
more effectively thanks to the testing effect.
7. A study finds that the more childbirth training classes
MODULE
women attend, the less pain medication they require during
2 The Need for Psychological Science childbirth. This finding can be stated as a
(positive/negative) correlation.
1. refers to our tendency to perceive
8. A provides a visual representation of the
events as obvious or inevitable after the fact.
direction and the strength of a relationship between two
2. As scientists, psychologists variables.
a. approach research with negative cynicism. 9. In a correlation, the scores rise and fall together;
b. assume that an article published in a leading scientific in a correlation, one score falls as the other
journal must be true. rises.
c. believe that every important human question can be a. positive; negative
studied scientifically. b. positive; illusory
d. are willing to ask questions and to reject claims that c. negative; weak
cannot be verified by research.
d. strong; weak
3. How can critical thinking help you evaluate claims in the
10. What is regression toward the mean, and how can it
media, even if you’re not a scientific expert on the issue?
influence our interpretation of events?
MODULE esearch Strategies: How Psychologists Ask
R 11. Knowing that two events are correlated provides
3 and Answer Questions a. a basis for prediction.
b. an explanation of why the events are related.
4. Theory-based predictions are called .
c. proof that as one increases, the other also increases.
5. Which of the following is NOT one of the descriptive methods
psychologists use to observe and describe behavior? d. an indication that an underlying third factor is at work.
a. A case study
b. Naturalistic observation
c. Correlational research
d. A phone survey
MODULE 4: St a t i s t i c a l R e a s o n i n g i n E v e r y d a y L i f e 49
12. Here are some recently reported correlations, with 18. In defending their experimental research with animals,
interpretations drawn by journalists. Knowing just these psychologists have noted that
correlations, can you come up with other possible a. animals’ physiology and behavior can tell us much about
explanations for each of these? our own.
a. Alcohol use is associated with violence. (One b. animal experimentation sometimes helps animals as well
interpretation: Drinking triggers or unleashes aggressive as humans.
behavior.)
c. advancing the well-being of humans justifies animal
b. Educated people live longer, on average, than less- experimentation.
educated people. (One interpretation: Education lengthens
d. all of these statements are correct.
life and enhances health.)
MODULE
c. Teens engaged in team sports are less likely to use drugs, Statistical Reasoning in Everyday Life
4
smoke, have sex, carry weapons, and eat junk food
than are teens who do not engage in team sports. (One 19. Which of the three measures of central tendency is most
interpretation: Team sports encourage healthy living.) easily distorted by a few very large or very small scores?
d. Adolescents who frequently see smoking in movies are a. The mode
more likely to smoke. (One interpretation: Movie stars’ b. The mean
behavior influences impressionable teens.)
c. The median
13. To explain behaviors and clarify cause and effect,
d. They are all equally vulnerable to distortion from atypical
psychologists use .
scores.
14. To test the effect of a new drug on depression, we randomly
20. The standard deviation is the most useful measure of
assign people to control and experimental groups. Those in
variation in a set of data because it tells us
the control group take a pill that contains no medication. This
is a . a. the difference between the highest and lowest scores in
the set.
15. In a double-blind procedure,
b. the extent to which the sample being used deviates from
a. only the participants know whether they are in the control
the bigger population it represents.
group or the experimental group.
c. how much individual scores differ from the mode.
b. experimental and control group members will be carefully
matched for age, sex, income, and education level. d. how much individual scores differ from the mean.
c. neither the participants nor the researchers know who is 21. Another name for a bell-shaped distribution, in which most
in the experimental group or control group. scores fall near the middle and fewer scores fall at each
extreme, is a .
d. someone separate from the researcher will ask people to
volunteer for the experimental group or the control group. 22. When sample averages are and the difference
between them is , we can say the difference has
16. A researcher wants to determine whether noise level affects
statistical significance.
workers’ blood pressure. In one group, she varies the
level of noise in the environment and records participants’ a. reliable; large
blood pressure. In this experiment, the level of noise is the b. reliable; small
. c. due to chance; large
17. The laboratory environment is designed to d. due to chance; small
a. exactly re-create the events of everyday life.
b. re-create psychological forces under controlled conditions.
c. provide a safe place.
d. minimize the use of animals and humans in psychological
research.