Analisa Sistem

dan Keputusan
Week 1

Decision Modeling
An Overview

2
 Case Study: Transportation problem
3

Case Study: Transshipment problem

4

4
 Case Study: Transportation problem
5

The History of OR
6

 In the World War II, the Great Britain formed a military operation team
(1939) comprises many scientists and military persons to apply military
problems (i.e. strategy and technique). They worked on research on (military)
operations from which operations research came from.
 “Blackett’s circus” is one of the famous teams of 3 psychologists, 2 physicists,
1 astrophysics experts, 1 senior military leader, 2 physicians (doctor), 2
math scientists, and 1 survey expert. Their contribution was in early warning
radar system, anti submarine, civilian defense, truck assignment, and
attacking strategy against Germany.
 The success was recognized by 2 Americans who worked with the army: Dr.
James B. Conant and Dr. Vannenar Bush. Finally they proposed to form a
research team in the US army (MIT was also involved).
 When the war ended, many of the tools were publicly shared.

6
 Operations Research

 OR – also known as management science (in the UK and Europe),

is the discipline of applying advanced analytical methods to
help better decision making.
 Management decision in many organizations involve trying to
make most effective use of resources.
 Machinery, labor, money, time, warehouse space, and raw materials.
 Produce products – such as computers, automobiles, or clothing or
 Provide services – such as package delivery, health services, or
investment decisions.
 To solve problems of resource allocation one may use
mathematical model.

OR Todays
8

 The major sub-disciplines in modern operations research, as

identified by the INFORMS journal Operations Research, are:
 Computing and information technologies
 Environment, energy, and natural resources
 Financial engineering
 Manufacturing, service science, and supply chain management
 Marketing Science
 Policy modeling and public sector work
 Revenue management
 Simulation
 Stochastic models
 Transportation.

8
 What is a System

 An organized assembly of components

 “Organized” implies relationships between components
 Exhibits particular behavior
 Groups of components within system themselves may
also have properties of a system, and form a subsystem
 System interacts with its environment which provides
inputs and receives outputs
 The system has been identified by someone as of
particular interest for a particular purpose

What is a Model
10

 A model of a system is a representation of all “essential”

parts of that system
 What is “essential” depends of the purpose for which the
model is to be used
 A model is different from the system: involves a degree of
abstraction. Some aspects of the system are included; others
are omitted.
 Hence a model can only be an approximation of reality.
 Important to be aware of limitations.
 Make sure approximations and assumptions are explicit.

10
 Steps in Decision Modeling

Formulation
 Objective function (Max or Min)
Defining the problem  Decision variables (controllable)
 Parameters (uncontrollable)
 Constraints
Developing a Model
(Formulation)

Acquiring input data

Interpretation

Implementing the Results

Solution

Developing a solution Analyzing results and sensitivity

Testing the solution

Note: iterative nature of process

11

Techniques Applicability

 Based on survey of “Fortune 500” firms, following were most popular

techniques used in the firms problem solving.

Techniques Usage Freq. (in overall Project)

Statistics 29%
Simulation 25%
Linear Programming 19%
Inventory Model 6%
Project Network 6%
Dynamic Programming 4%
Nonlinear Programming 3%
Queuing Model 1%

12
 OR Technique Applications

Area of Applications Techniques

Manufacturing Simulation, queuing, dynamic programming, linear

programming

Chemical Industry Linear programming, regression, network

Telecommunication Queuing, network

Transportation Network, dynamic programming, queuing

Hospital Queuing, dynamic programming

Contractor Network, dynamic programming

13

Types of Decision Model

 Deterministic Vs. Stochastic

 Static Vs. Dynamic
 Linear Vs. Non Linear
 Integer Vs. Non Integer

14
 Types of Decision Model
Deterministic vs. Stochastic

 Deterministic models:
 Assume all input data known with certainty
 All relevant data are available
 Even large models can be set up and solved very quickly using
computers
 e.g. Linear Programming
 Stochastic (probabilistic) models:
 Some inputs not known with certainty
 May be uncertainty and/or variability
 Models rely on random sampling
 Models tend to be more complex, and slower to solve
 e.g. queuing theory, simulation

15

Introduction to Linear Programming

An Overview

16
 Introduction to LP

 Linear programming (LP) is most common type of

mathematical programming. LP assumes all relevant
input data and parameters are known with certainty in
models (deterministic models).
 LP applied extensively to problems areas:
 Medical, transportation, operations,
 Financial, marketing, accounting,

 Human resources, and agriculture.

17

Development of an LP Model
Three step process

 Formulation
 Process of translating problem scenario into simple LP model
framework with set of mathematical relationships.
 Solution
 Mathematical relationships resulting from formulation
process are solved to identify optimal solution.
 Interpretation and What-If Analysis
 Problem solver or analyst works with manager to:
 Interpret results and implications of problem solution.
 Investigate changes in input parameters and model variables and
impact on problem solution.

18
 Properties of an LP Model

1. All problems seek to maximize or minimize some

quantity, usually profit or cost (called objective
function).
2. LP models usually include restrictions, or constraints,
limit degree to which one can pursue objective.
3. Objective and constraints in LP problems must be
expressed in terms of linear equations or
inequalities.

19

Linear Equations and Inequalities

 Suppose A, B, and C are variables:

 This is a linear equation:
2A + 5B = 10
 This equation is not linear:
2A2 + 5B3 + 3AB = 10
 LP uses, in many cases, inequalities like:
A + B ≤ C or A+B≥C

20
 Basic assumptions of an LP model

1. Conditions of certainty exist.

2. Proportionality in objective function and constraints
(1 unit – 3 hours, 3 units – 9 hours).
3. Additivity (total of all activities equals sum of
individual activities).
4. Divisibility assumption that solution values need not
necessarily be in whole numbers (integers).

21

Formulating an LP Problem

 A common LP application is the product mix

problem.
 Two or more products are usually produced using
limited resources, such as personnel, machines, raw
materials, and so on.
 The objective the firm seeks to maximize is total
profit.
 Firm would like to determine:
 How many units of each product it should produce
 Maximize overall profit given its limited resources.

22
 LP example

The Opti-Mize Company manufactures two products that

compete for the same (limited) resources. Current market
can only take 14 of these two products together a day.
Relevant information is:

Product A B Available resources

Labor-hrs/unit 1 2 20 hrs/day
Machine hrs/unit 2 2 30 hrs/day
Cost/unit $6 $20 $180/day

Profit/unit $5 $15

23

LP example

24
 Objective Function
 Objective function states goal of problem.
 In
our example, what major objective is to be solved?
 MAXIMIZE PROFIT!!

 An LP model must have a single objective function.

 So... In Opti-Mize problem, total profit may be

expressed as: 5X + 15Y ........ in $
5 x number of product A produced
15 x number of product B produced

25

Constraints

 Decision variables cannot just take any value, there

are certain conditions that must be satisfied. These
conditions are called the constraints.

 In Opti-Mize problem, there are four restrictions on

solution values.
 The first three restrictions have to do with available
labor and machine times, respectively.
 Restriction 4 is concerned with upper limit on number of
chairs.

26
 Constraints
27

 There are 20 labor hours available.

• X + 2Y ≤ 20
 There are 30 machine hours available.
• 2X + 2Y ≤ 30

 There are $180 budget available.

• 6X + 20Y ≤ 30
 The maximum demand of both products together .
• X + Y≤ 14

 The non-negativity constraints (logical constraints)

• X≥0 and Y ≥ 0
•
27

LP Formulation

Minimize c1x1 + c2x2 + c3x3 + …. + cnxn

subject to
a11x1 + a12x2 + a13x3 + …. + a1nxn  b1
a21x1 + a22x2 + a23x3 + …. + a2nxn  b2
:
:
am1x1 + am2x2 + am3x3 + …. + amnxn  bm

x1, x2, x3 , …., xn  0

28
 The complete LP model

29

LP Application
1. Supply chain distribution
2. Manufacturing (product mix)
3. Ingredient mix and blending
4. Employee scheduling (labor planning, assignment)
5. Marketing (media selection, marketing research)
6. Financial (portfolio selection)
7. Transportation (truck loading)
8. Multi-period planning (production planning, sinking fund)
9. Etc...

30
 Example 2
Radiosan manufactures two types of radios. The only scarce resource needed to produce
radios is labor. The company has two workers. Worker A is willing to work up to 40 hours per
week and is paid $5 per hour. Worker B is willing to work up to 50 hours per week and is
paid $6 per hour. The sales price as well as the resources required to build each type of radio
are given in Table 1. Formulate an LP model for Radiosan if the company wants to maximize
the profit.
Radio 1 Radio 2
Selling price: $25 Selling price: $ 22
Raw material cost: $5 Raw material cost: $4
Worker A: 1 hour Worker A: 2 hours
Worker B: 2 hours Worker B: 1 hour

31

Example 3 - Marketing
The I. B. Adman Advertising Company is planning a large media blitz covering
television, radio, and magazines to sell management science to the public. The
company’s objective is to reach as many people as possible. Results of a market
survey show:
Television
Day time Prime Time Radio Magazines

cost per unit $40,000 75,000 30,000 15,000

# non business 400,000 900,000 500,000 200,000
# business 300,000 400,000 200,000 100,000

The company has a budget of $800,000 to spend on the campaign. It requires at

least two million exposures among the business community. Television must be limited to
$500,000, at least 3 units of day time and 2 units of prime time must be purchased.
Advertising units on both radio and magazines should be between 5 and 10.
Formulate the problem.

32
 Example 3 - Marketing
The I. B. Adman Advertising Company is planning a large media blitz covering
television, radio, and magazines to sell management science to the public. The
company’s objective is to reach as many people as possible. Results of a market
survey show:
Television
Day time Prime Time Radio Magazines

cost per unit $40,000 75,000 30,000 15,000

# non business 400,000 900,000 500,000 200,000
# business 300,000 400,000 200,000 100,000

The company has a budget of $800,000 to spend on the campaign. It requires at

least two million exposures among the business community. Television must be limited to
$500,000, at least 3 units of day time and 2 units of prime time must be purchased.
Advertising units on both radio and magazines should be between 5 and 10.
Formulate the problem.

33

Example 4 – Diet Problem

Due to his blood sugar problem, Mr. Blue has been placed on a diet
by his Doctor, consisting of two foods: beer and ice cream. It is
mainly to avoid low level of sugar in his blood. The doctor warned
him to ensure proper consumption of nutrients to sustain life.
Formulate the problem for Mr. Blue so that he can satisfy the diet
program with the cheapest expense.

Nutrients Beer Ice cream

Minimum
Weekly Requirement
________________________________________________________
I 2 mg/oz 3 mg/oz 3500 mg
II 6 mg/oz 2 mg/oz 7000 mg
________________________________________________________
cost/oz 10 cents 4.5 cents

34