Chapter - 15 Probability
Chapter - 15 Probability
Probability
1. Probability is a quantitative measure of uncertainty.
2. In the experimental approach to probability, we find the probability of the occurrence
of an event by actually performing the experiment a number of times and adequate
recording of the happening of event.
3. In the theoretical approach to probability, we try to predict what will happen without
actually performing the experiment.
4. The experimental probability of an event approaches to its theoretical probability if the
number of trials of an experiment is very large.
5. An outcome is a result of a single trial of an experiment.
6. The word 'experiment' means an operation which can produce some well defined
outcome(s). There are two types of experiments:
i. Deterministic experiments: Experiments which are repeated under identical
conditions produce the same results or outcomes are called deterministic
experiments.
ii. Random or Probabilistic experiment: If an experiment, when repeated under
identical conditions, do not produce the same outcome every time but the outcome
in a trial is one of the several possible outcomes, then it is known as a random or
probabilistic experiment.
In this chapter, the term experiment will stand for random experiment.
7. The collection of all possible outcomes is called the sample space.
8. An outcome of a random experiment is called an elementary event.
9. An event associated to a random experiment is a compound event if it is obtained by
combining two or more elementary events associated to the random experiment.
10. An event A associated to a random experiment is said to occur if any one of the
elementary events associated to the event A is an outcome.
11. An elementary event is said to be favorable to a compound event A, if it satisfies the
definition of the compound event A. In other words, an elementary event E is favorable
to a compound event A, if we say that the event A occurs when E is an outcome of a
trial.
12. In an experiment, if two or more events have equal chances to occur or have equal
probabilities, then they are called equally likely events.
13. The theoretical probability (also called classical probability) of an event E, written as P
(E), is defined as
Number of outcomes favourable to E
Number of all possible outcomes of the experiment
14. For two events A and B of an experiment:
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If P(A) > P(B) then event A is more likely to occur than event B.
If P(A) = P(B) then events A and B are equally likely to occur.
15. An event is said to be sure event if it always occur whenever the experiment is
performed. The probability of sure event is always one. In case of sure event elements
are same as the sample space.
16. An event is said to be impossible event if it never occur whenever the experiment is
performed. The probability of an impossible event is always zero. Also, the number of
favorable outcome is zero for an impossible event.
17. Probability of an event lies between 0 and 1, both inclusive, i.e., 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1
18. If E is an event in a random experiment then the event ‘not E’ (denoted by E ) is called
the complementary event corresponding to E.
19. The sum of the probabilities of all elementary events of an experiment is 1.
̅ ) = 1 - P(E) , where the event 𝑬
20. For an event E, P(𝑬 ̅ representing ‘not E” is the
complement of event E.
21. Suits of Playing Card
A pack of playing cards consist of 52 cards which are divided into 4 suits of 13 cards
each. Each suit consists of one ace, one king, one queen, one jack and 9 other cards
numbered from 2 to 10. Four suits are named as spades, hearts, diamonds and clubs.
The formula for finding the geometric probability of an event is given by:
Measure of the specified part of the region
P(E) =
Measure of the whole region
Here, 'measure' may denote length, area or volume of the region or space.
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Event and outcome
An Outcome is a result of a random experiment. For example, when we roll a dice
getting six is an outcome.
An Event is a set of outcomes. For example when we roll dice the probability of getting
a number less than five is an event.
Note: An Event can have a single outcome
Events and Types of Events in Probability
What are Events in Probability?
A probability event can be defined as a set of outcomes of an experiment. In other
words, an event in probability is the subset of the respective sample space. So, what is
sample space?
The entire possible set of outcomes of a random experiment is the sample space or the
individual space of that experiment. The likelihood of occurrence of an event is known
as probability. The probability of occurrence of any event lies between 0 and 1.
The sample space for the tossing of three coins simultaneously is given by:
S = {(T , T , T) , (T , T , H) , (T , H , T) , (T , H , H ) , (H , T , T ) , (H , T , H) , (H , H, T) ,(H , H ,
H)}
Suppose, if we want to find only the outcomes which have at least two heads; then the
set of all such possibilities can be given as:
E = { (H , T , H) , (H , H ,T) , (H , H ,H) , (T , H , H)}
Thus, an event is a subset of the sample space, i.e., E is a subset of S.
There could be a lot of events associated with a given sample space. For any event to
occur, the outcome of the experiment must be an element of the set of event E.
What is the Probability of Occurrence of an Event?
The number of favourable outcomes to the total number of outcomes is defined as the
probability of occurrence of any event. So, the probability that an event will occur is
given as:
Types of Events in Probability:
Some of the important probability events are:
• Impossible and Sure Events
• Simple Events
• Compound Events
• Independent and Dependent Events
• Mutually Exclusive Events
• Exhaustive Events
• Complementary Events
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4}.
Thus E1‘ is the complement of the event E1.
Similarly, the complement of E1, E2, E3……….En will be represented as E1‘, E2‘, E3‘……….En‘
Experimental Probability
Experimental probability can be applied to any event associated with an experiment
that is repeated a large number of times.
A trial is when the experiment is performed once. It is also known as empirical
probability.
Experimental or empirical probability: P(E) =Number of trials where the event
occurred/Total Number of Trials
You and your 3 friends are playing a board game. It’s your turn to roll the die and to win
the game you need a 5 on the dice. Now, is it possible that upon rolling the die you will
get an exact 5? No, it is a matter of chance. We face multiple situations in real life
where we have to take a chance or risk. Based on certain conditions, the chance of
occurrence of a certain event can be easily predicted. In our day to day life, we are
more familiar with the word ‘chance and probability’. In simple words, the chance of
occurrence of a particular event is what we study in probability. In this article, we are
going to discuss one of the types of probability called “Experimental Probability” in
detail.
Theoretical Probability
Theoretical Probability, P(E) = Number of Outcomes Favourable to E / Number of all
possible outcomes of the experiment
Here we assume that the outcomes of the experiment are equally likely.
Every one of us would have encountered multiple situations in life where we had to
take a chance or risk. Depending on the situation, it can be predicted up to a certain
extent if a particular event is going to take place or not. This chance of occurrence of a
particular event is what we study in probability. In our everyday life, we are more
accustomed to the word ‘chance’ as compared to the word ‘probability’. Since
Mathematics is all about quantifying things, the theory of probability basically
quantifies these chances of occurrence or non-occurrence of certain events. In this
article, we are going to discuss what is probability and its two different types of
approaches with examples.
In Mathematics, the probability is a branch that deals with the likelihood of the
occurrences of the given event. The probability value is expressed between the range of
numbers from 0 to 1. The three basic rules connected with the probability are addition,
multiplication, and complement rules.
Theoretical Probability Vs Experimental Probability
Probability theory can be studied using two different approaches:
Theoretical Probability
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Experimental Probability
Theoretical Probability Definition
Theoretical probability is the theory behind probability. To find the probability of an
event using theoretical probability, it is not required to conduct an experiment. Instead
of that, we should know about the situation to find the probability of an event
occurring. The theoretical probability is defined as the ratio of the number of favourable
outcomes to the number of possible outcomes.
Probability of Event P(E) = No. of. Favourable outcomes/ No. of. Possible outcomes.
Experimental Probability Definition
The experimental probability also is known as an empirical probability, is an approach
that relies upon actual experiments and adequate recordings of occurrence of certain
events while the theoretical probability attempts to predict what will happen based
upon the total number of outcomes possible. The experimental Probability is defined as
the ratio of the number of times that event occurs to the total number of trials.
Probability of Event P(E) = No. of. times that event occurs/ Total number of trials
The basic difference between these two approaches is that in the experimental
approach; the probability of an event is based on what has actually happened by
conducting a series of actual experiments, while in theoretical approach; we attempt to
predict what will occur without actually performing the experiments.
Elementary Event
An event having only one outcome of the experiment is called an elementary event.
Example: Take the experiment of tossing a coin n number of times. One trial of this
experiment has two possible outcomes: Heads(H) or Tails(T). So for an individual toss, it
has only one outcome, i.e Heads or Tails.
Sum of Probabilities
The sum of the probabilities of all the elementary events of an experiment is one.
Example: take the coin-tossing experiment. P(Heads) + P(Tails)
= (1/2)+ (1/2) =1
Impossible event
An event that has no chance of occurring is called an Impossible event, i.e. P(E) = 0.
E.g: Probability of getting a 7 on a roll of a die is 0. As 7 can never be an outcome of this
trial.
Sure event
An event that has a 100% probability of occurrence is called a sure event. The
probability of occurrence of a sure event is one.
E.g: What is the probability that a number obtained after throwing a die is less than 7?
So, P(E) = P(Getting a number less than 7) = 6/6= 1
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Range of Probability of an event
The range of probability of an event lies between 0 and 1 inclusive of 0 and 1, i.e.
0≤P(E)≤1.
Geometric Probability
Geometric probability is the calculation of the likelihood that one will hit a particular
area of a figure. It is calculated by dividing the desired area by the total area. In the case
of Geometrical probability, there are infinite outcomes.
Complementary Events
Complementary events are two outcomes of an event that are the only two possible
outcomes. This is like flipping a coin and getting heads or tails.
𝑃(𝐸 ) + 𝑃(𝐸) = 1, where E and 𝐸
are complementary events. The event 𝐸 , representing ‘not E‘, is called the complement
of the event E.
For any event A, there exists another event A‘ which shows the remaining elements of
the sample space S. A’ denotes complementary event of A.
A’ = S – A.
Event A and A’ are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
Consider the example of tossing a coin. Let P(E) denote the probability of getting a tail
when a coin is tossed. Then probability of getting a head is denoted by
𝑃(𝐸). 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐸) = 1
The event 𝑃(𝐸) means ‘Not E’.
Example 1:
A bag contains only lemon-flavoured candies. Arjun takes out one candy without
looking into the bag. What is the probability that he takes out an orange-flavoured
candy?
Solution:
Let us take the number of candies in the bag to be 100.
Number of orange flavoured candies = 0 [since the bag contains only lemon-flavoured
candies]
Hence, the probability that he takes out an orange-flavoured candy is:
P (Taking orange-flavoured candy) = Number of orange flavoured candies / Total
number of candies.
= 0/100 = 0
Hence, the probability that Arjun takes out an orange-flavoured candy is 0.
This proves that the probability of an impossible event is 0.
Example 2:
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A game of chance consists of spinning an arrow that comes to rest pointing at any one
of the numbers such as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and these are equally likely outcomes. What
is the probability that it will point at (i)8, (ii) Number greater than 2 (iii) Odd numbers.
Solution:
Sample Space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}
Total Numbers = 8
(i) Probability that the arrow will point at 8:
Number of times we can get 8 = 1
P (Getting 8) = 1/8.
(ii) Probability that the arrow will point at the number greater than 2:
Number greater than 2 = 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.
No. of numbers greater than 2 = 6
P (Getting numbers greater than 2) = 6/8 = 3/4.
(iii) Probability that the arrow will point at the odd numbers:
Odd number of outcomes = 1, 3, 5, 7
Number of odd numbers = 4.
P (Getting odd numbers) = 4/8 = ½.
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Multiple Choice questions-
1. An event is very unlikely to happen. Its probability is closest to:
(a) 0.0001
(b) 0.001
(c) 0.01
(d) 0.1
(a) P – 1
(b) P
(c) 1 – p
1
(d) 1 –
𝑝
(c) 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
(d) -1 ≤ P(A) ≤ 0
4. A card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards. The event E is that card is not an ace of
hearts. The number of outcomes favourable to E is:
(a) 4
(b) 13
(c) 48
(d) 51
5. The probability of getting a bad egg in a lot of 400 is 0.035. The number of bad eggs
in the lot is:
(a) 7
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(b) 14
(c) 21
(d) 28
6. A girl calculate that the probability of her winning the first prize in a lottery is 0.08.
If 6000 tickets are sold, how many tickets has she bought?
(a) 40
(b) 240
(c) 480
(d) 750
7. One ticket is drawn at random from a bag containing tickets numbered 1 to 40. The
probability that the selected ticket has a number which is a multiple of 5 is:
8. Someone is asked to take a number from 1 to 100. The probability that it is a prime
is:
9. A school has five houses A, B, C, D and E. A class has 23 students, 4 from house A, 8
from house B, 5 from house C, 2 from house D and rest from house E. A single student
is selected at random to be the class monitor. The probability that the selected
student is not from A, B and C is:
4
(a)
23
6
(b)
23
8
(c)
23
17
(d)
23
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10. When a die is thrown, the probability of getting an odd number less them 3 is:
1
(a)
6
1
(b)
3
1
(c)
2
(d) 0
3. In a family, having three children, there may be no girl, one girl, two girls or
1
three girls. So, the probability of each is . Is this correct? Justify your
4
answer.
5. Two coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting exactly
one head.
6. From a well shuffled pack of cards, a card is drawn at random. Find the
probability of getting a black queen.
8. What is the probability of getting no head when two coins are tossed
simultaneously?
9. In a single throw of a pair of dice, what is the probability of getting the sum
a perfect square?
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Short Questions :
1. Two dice are thrown at the same time and the product of numbers appearing
on them is noted. Find the probability that the product is a prime number.
2. Find the probability that a number selected from the numbers 1 to 25 is not a
prime number when each of the given numbers is equally likely to be selected.
3. One card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that
the card drawn is an ace and black.
4. A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability
that the card drawn is neither an ace nor a king.
5. A bag contains lemon flavoured candies only. Malini takes out one candy
without looking into the bag. What is the probability that she takes out (i) an
orange flavoured candy? (ii) a lemon flavoured candy?
6. 12 defective pens are accidentally mixed with 132 good ones. It is not possible
to just look at a pen and tell whether or not it is defective. One pen is taken out
at random from this lot. Determine the probability that the pen taken out is a
good one.
7. Two players, Sangeeta and Reshma, play a tennis match. It is known that the
probability of Sangeeta’s winning the match is 0.62. What is the probability of
Reshma’s winning the match?
8. A child has a die whose six faces show the letters as given below:
The die is thrown once. What is the probability of getting (i) A? (ii) D?
9. A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability
that the card drawn is neither a red card nor a black king.
10. Out of 400 bulbs in a box, 15 bulbs are defective. One bulb is taken out at
random from the box. Find the probability that the drawn bulb is not defective.
11. Harpreet tosses two different coins simultaneously (say, one is of 1 and other of
2). What is the probability that she gets at least one head?
12. A game consists of tossing a one-rupee coin 3 times and noting the outcome
each time. Ramesh wins the game if all the tosses give the same result (i.e.
three heads or three tails) and loses otherwise. Find the probability of Ramesh
losing the game.
13. Three unbiased coins are tossed together. Find the probability of getting:
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(i) all heads.
Long Questions :
1. One card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. Find the probability of
getting:
(v) a spade.
2. One card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards, each of the 52 cards being equally
likely to be drawn. Find the probability that the card drawn is:
(i) an ace.
(ii) red.
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(v) a face card.
4. Two dice, one blue and one grey, are thrown at the same time. Write down all
the possible outcomes. What is the probability that the sum of the two
numbers appearing on the top of the dice is: (i) 8? (ii) 13? (iii) less than or
equal to 12?
5. A bag contains cards numbered from 1 to 49. A card is drawn from the bag at
random, after mixing the cards thoroughly. Find the probability that the
number on the drawn card is:
(ii) a multiple of 5.
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lf the forecast is 100% correct for June, then answer the following questions.
a. 5
b. 10
c. 15
d. 20
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3
iv. If the sum of x and y is , then the number of rainy days in June is:
10
a. 1
b. 2
c. 3
d. 4
a. 2
b. 4
c. 6
d. 8
2. Vishal goes to a store to purchase juice cartons for his shop. The store has 80 cartons of
orange juice, 90 cartons of apple juice, 38 cartons of mango juice and 42 cartons of
guava juice. If Vishal chooses a carton at random, then answer the following questions.
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(18)
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iv. Vishal buys 4 cartons of apple juice, 3 cartons of orange juice and 3 cartons of
guava juice. A customer comes to Vishal's shop and picks a tetrapack of juice at
random. The probability that the customer picks a guava juice, if each carton has
10 tetrapacks of juice, is:
v. If the storekeeper bought 14 more cartons of apple juice, then the probability of
selecting a tetrapack of apple juice from the store is:
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Assertion: The probability of winning a game is 0.4, then the probability of losing it, is
0.6.
Answer Key-
Multiple Choice questions-
1. (a) 0.0001
2. (c) 1 – p
3. (c) 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
4. (d) 51
5. (b) 14
6. (c) 480
1
7. (a)
5
1
8. (c)
4
6
9. (b)
23
1
10. (a)
6
2. True, because the outcomes odd number’ and `even number’ are equally likely here.
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3. False, because the outcomes are not equally, likely. For no girl, outcome is bbb, for
one girl, it is bgb, gbb, bbg, for two girls, it is bgg, ggb, gbg and for all girls, it is ggg.
4.
False, because the outcome 3 is more likely than the other numbers.
7. As we know that,
P (E) + P (not E) = 1
9. Total outcomes = 36
Favourable outcomes are {(1,3), (3, 1), (2, 2), (3, 6), (6,3), (4, 5), (5, 4)}
7
∴ Required probability =
36
Short Answer :
1. Product of the number on the dice is prime number, i.e., 2, 3, 5.
The possible ways are, (1, 2), (2, 1), (1, 3), (3, 1), (5, 1), (1, 5)
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So, number of possible ways = 6
6 1
∴ Required probability = =
36 6
(ii) As the bag contains only lemon flavoured candies. So, the event related to
the experiment of taking out lemon flavoured candies is certain event. So, its
probability is 1.
7. Let S and R denote the events that Sangeeta and Reshma wins the match,
respectively.
= 1 – 0.62 = 0.38.
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8. The total number of elementary events associated with random experiment of
throwing a die is 6.
9. Let E be the event card drawn is neither a red card nor a black king’
The number of outcomes favourable to the event E = 24 (26 red cards and 2
black kings are not there, so 52 – 28 = 24)
24 16
∴ P(E) = =
52 13
10. Total number of bulbs in the box = 400
11. When two coins are tossed simultaneously, the possible outcomes are (H, H),
(H, T), (T, H), (T, T) which are all equally likely. Here (H, H) means head up on the
first coin (say on ₹ 1) and head up on the second coin (₹ 2). Similarly (H, T)
means head up on the first coin and tail up on the second coin and so on.
The outcomes favourable to the event E, ‘at least one head’ are (H, H), (H, T)
and (T, H). So, the number of outcomes favourable to E is 3.
3
Therefore, P(E) =
4
3
i.e., the probability that Harpreet gets at least one head is .
4
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Now, Ramesh will lose the game if he gets
13. Elementary events associated to random experiment of tossing three coins are
(i) The event “getting all heads” is said to occur, if the elementary event HHH
occurs, i.e., HHH is an outcome.
(ii) The event “getting two heads” will occur, if one of the elementary events
HHT, THH, HTH occurs.
(iii) The event of “getting one head”, when three coins are tossed together,
occurs if one of the elementary events HTT, THT, TTH, occurs.
(iv) If any of the elementary events HHH, HHT, HTH, and THH is an outcome,
then we say that
4 1
(v) Similar as (iv) P (getting at least two tails) = =
8 2
14. We have, the total number of possible outcomes associated with the random
experiment of throwing a die is 6 (i.e., 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).
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(i) Let E denotes the event of getting a prime number.
15. (i) Here, let E be the event getting a number greater than 4′. The number of
possible outcomes are six : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, and the outcomes favourable to E
are 5 and 6. Therefore, the number of outcomes favourable to E is 2. So,
2 1
P(E) = P (number greater than 4) = =
6 3
(ii) Let F be the event ‘getting a number less than or equal to 4’.
Long Answer :
1. Here, total number of possible outcomes = 52
(i) As we know that there are two suits of red card, i.e., diamond and heart and
each suit contains one king.
(ii) As we know that kings, queens and jacks are called face cards. Therefore,
there are 12 face cards.
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∴ Favourable number of elementary events = 12
12 3
∴ Probability of getting a face card = =
52 13
(iii) As we know there are two suits of red cards, i.e., diamond and heart and
each suit contains 3 face cards.
(i) There are four ace cards in a pack of 52 cards. So, one ace can be chosen in 4
ways.
(ii) There are 26 red cards in a pack of 52 cards. Out of 26 red cards, one card
can be chosen in 26 ways.
(iii) There are 26 red cards, including two red kings, in a pack of 52 playing
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cards. Also, there are 4 kings, two red and two black. Therefore, card drawn will
be a red card or a king if it is any one of 28 cards (26 red cards and 2 black
kings).
(iv) A card drawn will be red as well as king, if it is a red king. There are 2 red
kings in a pack of 52 playing cards.
(v) In a deck of 52 cards: kings, queens, and jacks are called face cards. Thus,
there are 12 face cards. So, one face card can be chosen in 12 ways.
(vi) There are 6 red face cards 3 each from diamonds and hearts. Out of these 6
red face cards, one card can be chosen in 6 ways.
(viii) There are two suits of black cards viz. spades and clubs. Each suit contains
one card bearing number 10.
3.
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Here, total number of elementary events (possible outcomes) = 8
4. When the blue die shows ‘l’, the grey die could show any one of the numbers 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
The same is true when the blue die shows ‘2’, ‘3’, ‘4’, ‘5’ or ‘6’. The possible
outcomes of the experiment are listed in the table below; the first number in
each ordered pair is the number appearing on the blue die and the second
number is that on the grey die. So, the number of possible outcomes = 6 × 6 =
36.
(i) The outcomes favourable to the event the sum of the two numbers is 8′
denoted by E, are :
(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2) (see figure)
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(ii) As you can see from figure, there is no outcome favourable to the event F,
‘the sum of two numbers is 13’.
0
So, P(F) = = 0
36
(iii) As you can see from figure, all the outcomes are favourable to the event G,
‘sum of two numbers ≤ 12.
36
So, P(G) = = 1.
36
Favourable outcomes : 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31, 33,
35, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 47, 49
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2. Answer:
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