Important Formulas for DRS 113

Chapter 4
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐸 𝑛(𝐸)
Formula for classical probability: 𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 = 𝑛(𝑆)

𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝑓

Formula for empirical probability: 𝑃(𝐸) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛

Addition rule 1, for two mutually exclusive events: 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

Addition rule 2, for events that are not mutually exclusive: 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)

Multiplication rule 1, for independent events: 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) . 𝑃(𝐵)

Multiplication rule 2, for dependent events: 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝐵\𝐴)

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
Formula for conditional probability: 𝑃(𝐵\𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴)

Formula for complementary events: 𝑃(𝐸̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸) or 𝑃(𝐸) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸̅ ) or 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐸̅ ) = 1

Fundamental counting rule: In a sequence of n events in which the first one has k1 possibilities, the
second event has k2 possibilities, the third has k3 possibilities, etc., the total number of possibilities of
the sequence will be

K1 . k2 . k3 . . . k n

Permutation rule 1: The number of permutations of n objects taking r objects at a time when order is
𝑛!
important is 𝑛𝑃𝑟 = (𝑛−𝑟)!

Permutation rule 2: The number of permutations of n objects where r1 objects are identical, r2 objects
𝑛!
are identical, . . . , rp objects are identical is 𝑟
1 1 . . .𝑟𝑝 !
!𝑟 !

Combination rule: The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects when order is not
𝑛!
important is 𝑛𝐶𝑟 = (𝑛−𝑟)!𝑟!

Chapter 5
Formula for the mean of a probability distribution: 𝜇 = Σ𝑋 . 𝑃(𝑋)

Formulas for the variance and standard deviation of a probability distribution:

𝜎 2 = Σ[𝑋 2 . 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2

𝜎 = √Σ[𝑋 2 . 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2

Formula for expected value: 𝐸(𝑋) = Σ𝑋 . 𝑃(𝑋)

𝑛!
Binomial probability formula: 𝑃(𝑋) = (𝑛−𝑋)!𝑋! . 𝑝 𝑥 . 𝑞 𝑛−𝑋 where X = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . , n

Formula for the mean of the binomial distribution: 𝜇 = 𝑛 . 𝑝

Formulas for the variance and standard deviation of the binomial distribution:

𝜎2 = 𝑛 . 𝑝 . 𝑞

𝜎 = √𝑛 . 𝑝 . 𝑞

Formula for the multinomial distribution:

𝑛!
𝑃(𝑋) = . 𝑃 𝑋1 . 𝑃2 𝑋2 . . . 𝑃𝑘 𝑋𝑘
𝑋1 ! . 𝑋2 ! . 𝑋3 ! . . . 𝑋𝑘 ! 1
(The X’s sum to n and the p’s sum to 1.)
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆𝑋
Formula for the Poisson distribution: 𝑃(𝑋; 𝜆) = 𝑋!
Where X = 0, 1, 2, . . .

Formula for the hypergeometric distribution: 𝑃(𝑋) = ( 𝑎𝐶𝑋 . 𝑏𝐶𝑛 − 𝑋)/( 𝑎+𝑏𝐶𝑛 )

Formula for the geometric distribution: 𝑃(𝑛) = 𝑝(1 − 𝑝)𝑛−1 where n = 1, 2, 3, . . .

Chapter 6
𝑋− 𝜇
Formula for the z score (or standard score): 𝑧 =
𝜎

Formula for finding a specific data value: 𝑋 = 𝑧 . 𝜎 + 𝜇

Formula for the mean of the sample means: 𝜇𝑋̅ = 𝜇

𝜎
Formula for the standard error of the mean: 𝜎𝑋̅ =
√𝑛

𝑋̅−𝜇
Formula for the z value for the central limit theorem: 𝑧 =
𝜎/√𝑛

Formulas for the mean and standard deviation for the binomial distribution:

𝜇 = 𝑛. 𝑝

𝜎 = √𝑛. 𝑝. 𝑞
Yangon University Of Economics
Department of Statistics
PGDRS
PGDRS-113
Probability Theory
Week 7
• Exactly 3 = P(X=3)
• More than 3 :P(X>3) = P(X=4) + P(x=5)+…+ P(X=n)
• 3 or more : P(X≥ 3)= P(X=3) + P(X=4)+ ….+P(X=n)

• At least 3 : P(X≥ 3)= P(X=3) + P(X=4)+ ….+P(X=n)

=1- P(X< 3)

• Less than3 :P(X<3) = P(X=0) + P(X=1)+P(X=2)

• At most 3 : P(X≤ 3)=P(X=0) +P(X=1)+P(X=2)+ P(X=3)

• = 1- P(X>3)
A binomial experiment is a probability experiment that satisfies the following four
requirements

1.There must be a fixed number of trials.

2.Each trial can have only two outcomes or outcomes that can be reduced to two
outcomes. These outcomes can be consider as either success or failure

3.The outcomes of each trial must be independent of one other

4.The probability of a success must remain the same for each trial.
 The word success does not imply that something good or positive has occurred.

For example, in a probability experiment, we might want to select 10 people and let S
represent the number of people who were in an automobile accident in the last six
months.
In this case, a success would not be a positive or good thing.
EXAMPLE 5–11
Decide whether each experiment is a binomial experiment. If not, state the reason
why.
a. Selecting 20 university students and recording their class rank

b. Selecting 20 students from a university and recording their gender

c. Drawing five cards from a deck without replacement and recording whether they
are red or black cards

d. Selecting five students from a large school and asking them if they are on the
dean’s list
e. Recording the number of children in 50 randomly selected families
S O LU T I O N
a. No. There are five possible outcomes: freshman, sophomore, junior, senior, and
graduate student.

b. Yes. All four requirements are met.

c. No. Since the cards are not replaced, the events are not independent.

d. Yes. All four requirements are met.

e. No. There can be more than two categories for the answers.
The outcomes of a binomial experiment and the corresponding probabilities of these
outcomes are called a binomial distribution.
In a Binomial experiment, the probability of exactly X successes in trials is
𝑛!
P(X= x) = 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 ; 𝑥 = 0,1,2, … , 𝑛
𝑥! 𝑛−𝑥 !

𝑛 𝑥 𝑛−𝑥
P(X=x) = 𝑃 𝑞 ; x = 0,1,2,…,n
𝑥
Where
= symbol for probability of success
=symbol for probability of failure
P =numerical probability of success
=numerical probability of failure
=number of trials
=numbers of trials in success
EXAMPLE 5–12 Survey on Doctor Visits
A survey found that one out of five Americans says he or she has visited a doctor in
any way given month. If 10 people are selected at random, find the probability that
exactly 3will have visited a doctor last month?
S O LU T I O N
In this case, n = 10, X = 3, p = 1/5 , and q = 4/5. Hence,
10
P(X=x) = (1/5)𝑥 (4/5)𝑛−𝑥 ; x = 0,1,2,…,10
𝑥

10 1 3 4 7
P(X= 3) = ( ) ( ) = 0.201
3 5 5

So, there is a 0.201 probability that in a random sample of 10 people, exactly 3 of

them visited a doctor in the last month.
X!= x * (x-1) * (x-2) …
2! = 2 * 1 =
3!= 3*2*1 = 6

4!= 4*3*2*1 = 24
10C3 * (1/5)^3 *(4/5)^7 = 0.2013
EXAMPLE 5–13 Survey on Employment
A survey from Teenage Research Unlimited (Northbrook, Illinois) found that
30%of teenage consumers receive their spending money from part-time jobs.
If 5 teenager are selected at random, find the probability that at least 3 of
them will have part time jobs.
Let X be the number of spending money from part-time jobs.
p be the probability of spending money from part-time jobs.
n= number of trial= 5
S O LU T I O N
To find the probability that at least 3 have part-time jobs, it is necessary to find the
individual probabilities for 3, or 4, or 5 and then add them to get the total probability.

5
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥 = (0.3)𝑥 (0.7)5−𝑥 ; x= 0,1,…,5
𝑥
Hence,
P(at least three teenagers have part-time jobs)
= 0.132 + 0.028 + 0.002 = 0.162
Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation for the Binomial Distribution

Mean

Variance

Standard Deviation
EXAMPLE 5–22 Tossing a Coin
A coin is tossed 4 times. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the
number of heads that will be obtained.
S O LU T I O N
With the formulas for the binomial distribution and n = 4, p = 1/2 , and q = 1/2 , the
results are
Mean

Variance

Standard Deviation
In this case, the mean is two heads. The variance is 1 and the standard deviation is 1.
EXAMPLE 5–23 Rolling a Die
An 8-sided die (with the numbers 1 through 8 on the faces) is rolled 560 times. Find
the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the number of 7s that will be rolled.
S O LU T I O N
This is a binomial experiment with n = 560, p =1/8 , and q = 7/8 so that
Mean

Variance

Standard Deviation

In this case, the mean of the number of 7s obtained is 70. The variance is 61.25, and
the standard deviation is 7.826.
Exercise
1.Prison Inmates :Forty percent of prison inmates were unemployed when they entered
prison. If 5 inmates are randomly selected, find these probabilities:
a. Exactly 3 were unemployed. b. At most 4 were unemployed.
c. At least 3 were unemployed. d. Fewer than 2 were unemployed.

2.Airline Accidents Twenty-five percent of commercial airline accidents are caused by

bad weather. If 300 commercial accidents are randomly selected, find the mean,
variance, and standard deviation of the number of accidents caused by bad weather.
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND
Yangon University Of
Economics
PGDRS

Department Of Statistics
Probability Theory
PGDRS 113

Presented By
Daw Aye Aye Htwe
Associated Professor
Department Of Statistics
 About 12.5% of restaurant bills are incorrect. If 200 bills are selected at random, find the
probability that at least 22 will contain an error. Is this likely or unlikely to occur?
Solution
 Let x be the number of bill is incorrect.
P = the probability of bill is incorrect.
P = 12.5% =0.125 , n = 200
n*p = 0.125*200 = 25 > 5, σ2 = npq = 200*0.125*0.875 = 21.875, σ = 4.68
X ~ Normally distributed (𝜇, σ2 𝑜𝑟 σ)
𝜇 = 25, σ = 4.68
The probability that at least 22 will contain an error
𝑥 −𝜇 22 −𝜇 22 −25
P(x ≥ 22) = P ( ≥ ) = P( z ≥ )
σ σ 4.68
= P( z ≥-0.64) -0.64 0

= 1 - P( z <-0.64)
= 1 – 0.26109 = 0.7389, This is likely to occur.
 Page- 339, No.26
 A mandatory competency test for high school sophomores has a normal distribution with a
mean of 400 and a standard deviation of 100.
( a). The top 3% of students receive $500. What is the minimum score you would need to
receive this award?
( b). The bottom 1.5% of students must go to summer school. What is the minimum score you
would need to stay out of this group?

 Let x be the number of a mandatory competency test for high school

sophomores
 X ~ Normally distributed (𝜇, σ2 𝑜𝑟 σ)
 𝜇 = 400, σ = 100
 (a) x = ? 𝜇= 400 𝜎 = 100
(a)

𝜇= 400 , 𝜎 = 100

P ( z > A ) = 1- P ( z < A )
= 1- 3%
P ( z > 1.88) = 0.97
z = 1.88
X = z·σ+μ
= (1.88 )(100) + 400
= 588
The minimum score is 588 to receive this award.
(𝑏) 𝜇= 400 𝜎 = 100
P ( z < A ) = 1.5% or 0.015
P ( z > -2.17 ) = 0.015
z = -2.17
X = z·σ+μ x 400

= (-2.17 )(100) + 400

= 183
The minimum score is 183 to stay out of this group
 Page 308, N0.31
 A youth group has 8 boys and 6 girls. If a slate of 4 officers is selected, find the probability that
exactly a. 3 are girls b. 2 are girls c. 4 are boys
 Let X be the number of a slate officer.
N = a +b = 6 + 8 = 14, n = 4, a = 6(girl), b = 8 (boy)
X~ Hypergeometric Distribution

C3. 8C1 20∗8

(a) the probability that exactly 3 are girl = P (X=3) = 6 = = 0.1598
C
14 4 1001

C2. 8C2
(b)the probability that exactly 2 are girls = P(X=2) = 6 = 0.4195
C
14 4

C0. 8C4 1∗70

© find the probability that exactly 4 are boys = P(X=0) = 6 = = 0.0699
C
14 4 1001
 Page 308, N0.28
 If 8% of the population of trees are elm trees, find the probability that in a sample of 100 trees,
there are exactly 6 elm trees. Assume the distribution is approximately Poisson.
 Let X be the number of elm tree.
P be the probability of the trees are elm tree , P = 0.08
n=100, n*p = 0.08 *100 = 8 > 5 (Binomial Distribution)
 X~ approximately Poisson distribution
λ be the average of elm tree = 8
𝑒 −λ λ𝑥
 P( X=x; λ) = , X= 0,1,2,…
𝑥!

𝑒 −8 (8𝑥 )
= , , X= 0,1,2,…..,100
𝑥!

𝑒 −8 (86 )
P(x= 6) = = 0.1221
6!
x P(X=x) P(X<=x)

0 0.000335 0.0003

1 0.002684 0.0030

2 0.010735 0.0138

3 0.028626 0.0424

4 0.057252 0.0996

5 0.091604 0.1912

6 0.122138 0.3134

7 0.139587 0.4530

8 0.139587 0.5925

9 0.124077 0.7166

10 0.099262 0.8159
Page – 298,(No.3)
According to the manufacturer, M&M’s are produced and distributed in the
following proportions: 13% brown, 13% red, 14% yellow, 16% green, 20%
orange, and 24% blue. In a random sample of 12 M&M’s, what is the probability
of having 2 of each color?
X~ Multinomial Distributio

X1 = 2, x2 = 2, x3= 2, x4=2, x5= 2, x6 = 2, n=12

P1=0.13, p2= 0.13, p3= 0.14, p4=0.16, p5= 0.20, p6 = 0.24

12!
P(x) = . (0.13)2*(0.13)2*(0.14)2*(0.16)2*(0.20)2*(0.24)2
2!2!2!2!2!2!

= 0.00247
 Page -307(No.22)
 Employed Women If 60% of all women are employed outside the home, find the probability
that in a sample of 20 women,
a. Exactly 15 are employed
b. At least 10 are employed
c. At most 5 are not employed outside the home
Solution
Let x be the number of a woman is employed outside the home
p be the probability of a woman is employed outside the home
P= 0.60, n = 20
X~ Binomial Distribution
𝑛!
P(X= x) = 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞𝑛−𝑥 ; 𝑥 = 0,1,2, … , 𝑛
𝑥! 𝑛−𝑥 !
𝑛 𝑥 𝑛−𝑥
P(X=x) = 𝑃 𝑞 ; x = 0,1,2,…,n
𝑥
20
P(X=x) = (0.6)𝑥 (0.4)𝑛−𝑥 ; x = 0,1,2,…,20
𝑥
*
PGDRS
 *

Presented By
Daw Aye Aye Htwe
Associated Professor
Department Of Statistics
*
Probability & Counting Rules
 *
*“The only two sure things in life are death and taxes.”

*Decisions are made constantly that are governed at least in

part by chance

*Probability
*General concept defined as the chance of an event
occurring
*Used in fields of insurance, investments, gambling,
weather forecasting, and various other fields
 *
Processes such as flipping a coin, rolling a die, or drawing a
card from a deck are called probability experiments.

*Probability experiment
*Chance process that leads to a well-defined results called
outcomes

*Outcome
*Result of a single trial of a probability experiment
 *
*Sample space
*The set of all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment
Sample spaces for various experiments:

Experiment Sample Space

Toss one coin Head, Tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer to true/false question True, False
Toss two coins Head-head, tail-tail, head-tail,
tail-head
 *
*4-1
*Find the sample space for rolling two dice

*4-2
*Find the sample space for drawing one card from an
ordinary deck of cards

*4-3
*Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a
family has three children
▸4-1 Rolling two dice

Die 2
Die 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2, 6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

sample space = S = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), … , (6,6)}

▸
 ▸

There are two genders, boy and girl, and each child could be either
gender. Hence, there are eight possibilities, as shown here.
BBB BBG BGB GBB GGG GGB GBG BGG
sample space = S ={(BBB), (BBG), (BGB), (GBB), (GGG),
(GGB), (GBG), (BGG)}
*Tree diagram
*Device consisting of line segments emanating
from a starting point and also from the outcome
point, used to determine all possible outcomes
of an event

*Example 4-4
*Make a tree diagram for gender of children in a
*
family with three children
▸Example 4-4 Tree diagram for gender of children in a
family with three children
Third Outcomes
Second child
B BBB
child
First
B
child G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G BGG

B GBB

B
G GBG
G
B
GGB
G

G GGG
 *
*Event
*Set of outcomes of a probability experiment
*Simple event
*Event with one outcome (rolling a 6)
*Compound event
*Consists of two or more outcomes or simple events
(rolling an even number)
Three Interpretations of Probability
1. Classical Probability
2. Empirical Probability
*
 *
*Probabilities can be expressed as decimals, fractions, or
percentages

*Rounding rule
*Expressed as a reduced fraction or as a decimal rounded to
three decimal places

*4-5
*Find probability of getting a black 6
There are 52 cards in an ordinary deck, and there are two
black 6s, that is, the 6 of clubs and the 6 of spades. Hence, the
probability of getting a black 6 is

≈ 0.038

2 1
=
52 26

▸
 The sample space for the gender of three children has eight
outcomes BBB, BBG, BGB, GBB, GGG, GGB, GBG, and
BGG. The probability of having exactly two boys is

3
.
8

▸
*It is important to understand the meaning of the
words “and” and “or” in probability theory

*“and” means at the same time (multiply)

*“or” could be inclusive or exclusive depending on

the circumstances of the event (addition)

*
* A card is drawn from an ordinary deck, find these probabilities

a) Getting a heart

b) Getting a black card

c) Getting the 8 of diamonds

d) Getting a queen

e) Getting a face card

*
a. There are 13 hearts in a deck of 52 cards; hence,
13
P(heart ) = 52
= 0.25
b. There are 26 black cards in a deck, that is, 13 clubs and 13 spades. So
the probability is
26
P(black card) = 52= 0.5
c. There is one 8 of diamonds in a deck of 52 cards, so the probability is
P(8 of diamonds) = 1≈ 0.019
d. There are four queens 52 in a deck of 52 cards; hence,
P(queen) = 4 ≈ 0.077
e. There are 12 face
52 cards in an ordinary deck of cards, that is, 4 suits
(diamonds, hearts, spades, and clubs) and 3 face cards of each suit (jack,
queen, and king), so
P(face card) = ≈ 0.231
12
52
*

*
 *
*4-8
*When a single die is rolled, find the probability of
getting a 9
0
P(9) = =0
6

*4-9
*When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of
getting a number less than 7
6
P( number less than 7) = =1
6
*The complement of an event E is the set of
outcomes in the sample space that are not included
in the outcomes of event E. The complement of E
is denoted by (read E bar).
E

*
Example 4-10
Find the complement of each event:
a) Selecting a month that has 30 days.
b) Selecting a day of the week that begins with the letter S.
c) Rolling two dice and getting a number whose sum is 7.
d) Selecting a letter of the alphabet(excluding y) that is a vowel.
Solution
a). Selecting a month that has 28 or 31 days, that is, January,
February, March, May, July, August, October, or December.
b). Selecting a day of the week that does not begin with S, that is,
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday.
c). Rolling two dice and getting a number whose sum is not 7, that is,
2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11, or 12.
d). Selecting a letter of the alphabet that is a consonant.
 *
P(E) = 1 − P(E)
P(E) = 1 − P(E)
P(E) + P(E) = 1
*If the probability of an event or the probability of its
complement is known, then the other can be found by
subtracting the probability from 1.

P(E)

P(E)
▸Example 4-11
In a study ,it was found that 24% of people who were victims of a
violent crime were age 20 to 24. If a person is selected at random, find
the probability that the person is younger than 20 or older than 24.
Solution
Let A = the event that the person is aged 20 to 24
= the event that the person is not aged 20 to 24
A
P(A) = 24% = 0.24
The probability that the person is younger than
20 or older than 24.
P(A) = 1 − P(A)
P(A) = 1 - 0.24 = 0.76 = 76%
* *
 *
*4-12
*In the following travel survey, find the probability that a
person will travel by train or bus over the Thanksgiving
Method Frequency
holiday. Drive 41
Fly 6
Train or Bus 3

Solutionf 3
=
n 50that a person will travel by train or bus over the
The probability
Thanksgiving holiday.
P(E) = = 0.06
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
Type A, 5 had type B, and 2 had type AB. Set up a frequency
distribution and find the following probabilities:
a) A person has type O blood
b) A person has type A or type B blood
c) A person has neither type A nor type O blood
d) A person does not have type AB blood

▸
Solution
Frequency Distribution
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50

f 21
a. P(O) = =
n 50

b. P(A or B) = 22 + 5 = 27
50 50 50

c. 5 2 7
P( neither A nor O) = + =
50 50 50

2 48
d. P(not AB) = 1 - P(AB) = 1 - =
50 50
PROBABILITY THEORY
PGDRS 113

Presented By
Daw Aye Aye Htwe
Associated Professor
Department Of Statistics
EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
 SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
Subjective probability
▪ Uses a probability value based on an educated guess or estimate

Guesses are based on a person’s experience and evaluation of a solution

All three types of probability (classical, empirical, subjective) are used to

solve a variety of problems in business, engineering, and other fields
 4.2 – ADDITION RULES FOR PROBABILITY
Many problems involve finding probability of two or more events

For example, probability person is a female or a Republican has 3 possibilities

1. Person is a female
2. Person is a Republican
3. Person is both female and Republican

Another example, probability person is a Democrat or Independent, only 2

possibilities
1. Person is a Democrat
2. Person is an Independent
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
Female or Republican example is not mutually exclusive
Democrat or Independent example is mutually exclusive

Mutually exclusive events

▪ Events that cannot occur at same time

▪ Have no outcomes in common

Example 4-15
Determine whether the two events are mutually exclusive. Explain your
answer.
a. Randomly selecting a female student
Randomly selecting a student who is a junior
b. Randomly selecting a person with type A blood
Randomly selecting a person with type O blood
c. Rolling a die and getting an odd number
Rolling a die and getting a number less than 3
d. Randomly selecting a person who is under 21 years of age
Randomly selecting a person who is over 30 years of age
 SOLUTION
a. These events are not mutually exclusive since a student can
be both female and a junior.
b. These events are mutually exclusive since a person cannot
have type A blood and type O blood at the same time.
c. These events are not mutually exclusive since the number 1
is both an odd number and a number less than 3.
d. These events are mutually exclusive since a person cannot
be both under 21 and over 30 years of age at the same time.
ADDITION RULE 1
▸ Example 4-17
In the United States there are 59 different species of mammals that
are endangered, 75 different species of birds that are endangered,
and 68 species of fish that are endangered. If one animal is selected
at random, find the probability that it is either a mammal or a fish.
Solution
Since there are 59 species of mammals and 68 species of fish that are
endangered and a total of 202 endangered species,
P(mammal or fish) = P(mammal) + P(fish)
59 68 127
= + =
202 202 202

= 0.629
The events are mutually exclusive.
Example 4-18
The corporate research and development center for three local
companies have the following numbers of employees:
U.S. Steel 110
Alcoa 750
Bayer Material Science 250
If a research employee is selected at random, find the probability
that the employee is employed by U.S. Steel or Alcoa.
Solution
P(U.S. Steel or Alcoa) = P(U.S. Steel) + P(Alcoa)

110 750 860

= + = = 0.775
1110 1110 1110
 ▸EXAMPLE 4-19
In a survey, 8% of the respondents said that their favourite ice
cream flavour is cookies and cream, and 6% like mint
chocolate chip. If a person is selected at random, find the
probability that her or his favourite ice cream flavour is either
cookies and cream or mint chocolate chip.
Solution
P(cookies and cream or mint chocolate chip)
= P(cookies and cream) + P(mint chocolate chip)
= 0.08 + 0.06 = 0.14 = 14%
These events are mutually exclusive.
ADDITION RULE 2
 ▸ EXAMPLE
4-20
A single card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards. Find the
probability that it is either a 9 or a diamond
Solution
There are 4 nines and 13 diamonds in a deck of cards,
and one of the 9s is a diamond, so it is counted twice. Hence,
P(9 or a diamond) = P(9) + P(diamond) −P(9 and a diamond)

4 13 1 16
= + − =
52 52 52 52

≈ 0.308
EXAMPLE
▸ 4-21 In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5
physicians; 7 nurses and 3 physicians are females. If a staff
person is selected, find the probability that the subject is a
nurse or a male.
Solution
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
The probability is
P(nurse or male) = P(nurse) + P(male) − P(male nurse)

8 3 1 10
= + − = ≈ 0.769
13 13 13 13
 EXAMPLE
▸ 4-22
On New Year’s Eve, the probability of a person driving while
intoxicated is 0.32, the probability of a person having a driving
accident is 0.09, and the probability of a person having a driving
accident while intoxicated is 0.06. What is the probability of a person
driving while intoxicated or having a driving accident?
Solution
P(intoxicated or accident) = P(intoxicated) + P(accident)
− P(intoxicated and accident)
= 0.32 + 0.09 − 0.06 = 0.35
 EXTENDING TO 3+ EVENTS
➢ The probability rules can be extended to three or more events
➢ For three mutually exclusive events A, B, and C.
P(A or B or C ) = P( A) + P ( B ) + P ( C )
➢ For three events that are not mutually exclusive,
P(A or B or C ) = P( A) + P ( B ) + P ( C ) – P(A and B)
– P(A and C) – P( B and C) + P( A and B and C )
Yangon University Of Economics

Department Of Statistics
PGDRS
 Probability Theory
PGDRS 113

Presented By
Daw Aye Aye Htwe
Associated Professor
Department Of Statistics
 4.3 – Multiplication Rules &
Conditional Probability

• Multiplication rules can be used to find

probability of two or more events that occur in
a sequence

• Events are either independent or dependent

 Independent Events
• Independent events
– Two events A and B are independent if fact that A
occurs does not affect probability of B occurring

• Examples of independent events

– Rolling a die and getting a 6, then rolling another die
and getting a 3

– Drawing a card from a deck and getting a queen,

replacing it, and drawing a second card and getting a
queen
Multiplication Rule 1
 Example

▸ 4-23
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on
the die.
Solution
The sample space for the coin is H, T; and for the die it is 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
1 1 1
P(head and 4) = P(head) · P(4) = . = ≈ 0.083
2 6 12
 Example

• 4-25
– An urn contains 2 red balls,5 blue balls, and 3
white balls. A ball is selected, its color noted, then
it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its
color noted. Find the probability of each of these
a. Selecting 3 blue balls
b. Selecting 1 white ball then 1 red ball
c. Selecting 2 blue ball then 1 white ball
 Solution
a. P(blue and blue and blue) = P(blue) · P(blue) · P(blue)
5 5 5 125
= . . =
10 10 10 1000
= 0.125
b. P(white and red) = P(white) · P(red)

3 2 6
= . =
10 10 100
= 0.06
c. P(blue and blue and white) = P(blue) · P(blue) · P(white)
5 5 3 75
= . . =
10 10 10 1000
= 0.075
 Example

• 4-24
– A card is drawn from a deck and replaced; then a
second card is drawn. Find the probability of
getting a king and then a 7.
Solution
4 4 16
P(king and then a 7) = . =
52 52 2704
≈ 0.006.
 Example

▸ 4-26
It was found that 3 out of every 4 people who commit a bank
robbery are apprehended. If 3 bank robberies are selected at
random, find the probability that all three robbers will be
apprehended.
Solution
Let R be the event that a bank robber is apprehended.
P(R and R and R) = P(R) · P(R) · P(R) = 3 . 3 . 3 = 27
4 4 4 64
≈ 0.422
There is about a 42% chance that all 3 robbers will be apprehended.
 Dependent Events
• Dependent events
– Two events A and B are dependent when the outcome or
occurrence of event A affects the outcome or occurrence of
event B in such a way that the probability is changed.

• Examples of dependent events

– Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and drawing a
second card
– Selecting a ball from an urn, not replacing it, and selecting
a second ball
– Having high grades and getting a scholarship
– Parking in a no-parking zone and getting parking ticket
 Conditional Probability
• Probabilities involving dependent events are
called conditional probabilities

• Conditional probability
– Probability of event B in relationship to an event A
is probability that event B occurs given that A has
already occurred
Formula for Conditional Probability
 Multiplication Rule 2
• When two events A and B are dependent, the
probability of both occurring is

P(A and B) =P(A).P( B∣A)

➢Dependent events can also be considered as

probabilities solved without replacement
 Example
▸ 4-28
◦ For a specific year, 5.2% of U.S. workers were unemployed.
During that time, 33% of those who were unemployed received
unemployment benefits. If a person is selected at random, find
the probability that she or he received unemployment benefits if
the person is unemployed.
Solution
P(unemployed benefits and unemployed)=P(U) · P(B|U)
= (0.052)(0.33)
= 0.017
 Example

• 4-30
– Three cards are drawn from a deck and not
replaced. Find the probability of these events

a. Getting 3 Jacks

b. Getting an Ace, a King, and a Queen in order

c. Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order

d. Getting 3 clubs
 Solution

• a. P(3 jacks) = 4 . 3 . 2 = 24 ≈ 0.0002

52 51 50 132600
4 4 4 64
. . =
• b. P(ace and king and queen) = 52 51 50 132600 ≈ 0.0005

• c. P(club and spade and heart) = 13 13 13 2197 ≈ 0.017

. . =
52 51 50 132600

• d. P(3 clubs) = 13 12 11 1716 ≈ 0.013

. . =
52 51 50 132600
 Example

• 4-29
– World Wide Insurance Company found that 53% of the
residents of a city had homeowner’s insurance (H) with the
company. Of these clients, 27% also had automobile
insurance (A) with the company. If a resident is selected at
random, find the probability that the resident has both
homeowner’s and automobile insurance with World Wide
Insurance
Company.

Solution
P(H and A) = P(H) · P(A|H) = (0.53)(0.27) = 0.1431 ≈ 0.143
 Example

▸ 4-31
Box 1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box 2 contains 3 blue
balls and 1 red ball. A coin is tossed. If it falls heads up, box 1 is
selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up, box 2 is selected
and a ball is drawn. Find the probability of selecting a red ball.
Solution
P(Red)= P(𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑑𝐵1 ) + 𝑃 𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑑𝐵2 = 2 + 1 = 11
6 8 24
Formula for Conditional Probability
 If event A and B are dependent
P ( A and B)
❖P(B|A) =
P(A)

P( A and B) = P(A) . P( B|A)

P( A and B)
❖P (A|B) =
P(B)

P( A and B) = P(B). P( A|B)

 Example

• 4-32
– A box contains black chips and white chips. A
person selects two chips without replacement. If
the probability of selecting a black chip and a
white chip is 15/56, and the probability of
selecting a black chip on the first draw is 3/8, find
the probability of selecting the white chip on the
second draw, given that the first chip selected was
a black chip.
 Solution

Let
B = selecting a black chip W = selecting a white chip
15
P( B and W)
P(W |B) = = 56
P(B) 3
8

≈ 0.714
Hence, the probability of selecting a white chip on the second
draw given that the first chip selected was black is 0.714.
 Example

• 4-33
– The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking
zone and gets a parking ticket is 0.06, and the
probability that Sam cannot find a legal parking
space and has to park in the no-parking zone is
0.20. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to
park in a no-parking zone. Find the probability that
he will receive a parking ticket
 Solution

Let
N = parking in a no-parking zone T = getting a ticket

P( N and T) 0.06
P(T | N) = =
P(N) 0.20

= 0.30
Hence, Sam has a 0.30 probability or 30% chance of getting a
parking ticket, given that he parked in a no-parking zone.
 Example
▸ 4-34
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the
armed forces should be permitted to participate in combat. The
results of the survey are shown.
Gender Yes No Total
Male 32 18 50
Female 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100
Find these probabilities.
a. The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was a
female.
b. The respondent was a male, given that the respondent answered
no.
 Solution

Let
M = respondent was a male, Y = respondent answered yes
F = respondent was a female, N = respondent answered no
8
P( F and Y )
a. P(Y |F) = = 100
P(F) 50
100
= 0.16

18
P( N and M)
b. P(M |N) = = 100
P(N) 60
100
= 0.3
Yangon University of Economics
Department of Statistics
PGDRS.113
Probability Theory

Chapter 4
Probability and Counting Rules
Exercises
Roll two dice and multiple the numbers together.
a. Write out the sample space.
b. What is the probability that the product is a multiple of 6?
c. What is the probability that the product is less than 10?
Solution
a. Sample space = S= { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 2, 4, 6, 8,10,12,
3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24,
5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36}
= 36
b. P( the product is a multiple of 6) = 4/36
c. P( the product is less than 10) = 17/ 36
Human blood is grouped into four types. The percentage of
Americans with each types are listed below.
O =43% A =40% B= 12% AB= 5%
Choose one American at random. Find the probability that this
person
(a) Has type B blood
(b) Has type AB or O blood
(c) Does not have type O blood
Solution
(a) P( the person has type B blood) = 0.12
(b) P( the person has type AB or O blood) = 0.05 + 0.43 =0.48
(c) P( the person does not have type O blood) = 1 – P(O)
= 1- 0.43
= 0.57
• At a community swimming pool there are 2 managers, 8
lifeguards, 3 concession stand clerks and 2 maintenance people. If
a person is selected at random, find the probability that the person
is either a lifeguard or a manager.
Solution
Let
M be the event that the person is a manager.
L be the event that the person is a lifeguard.
C be the event that the person is a clerks.
N be the event that the person is a maintenance people.
Probability distribution of a community swimming pool

The probability that the person is either a lifeguard or a manager

P (L) = f/n
= P( L or M)
= ( 8/15 + 2/15)
= (10/ 15)
The probability that the person is neither a lifeguard nor a manager .
= 1- P( L or M) = 1- 10/ 15= 5/15
• A recent study of 200 nurses found that of 125 female nurses, 56
had bachelor’s degrees: and of 75 male nurses, 34 had bachelors
degree’s. If a nurse is selected at random, find the probability that
the nurse is
(a) A female nurse with a bachelor’s degree
(b) A male nurse
(c) A male nurse with a bachelor’s degree
(d) Based on your answers to parts a, b, and c, explain which is most
likely to occur. Explain why?
Solution
Let
M be the event that the nurse is Male
F be the event that the nurse is Female
B be the event that the nurse has bachelor’ degree
B` the event that the nurse does not have bachelor’s degree
• The probability distribution of recent study on nurse
Bachelor’s Degree Gender Total
Male (M) Female ( F )
Has ( B ) n(BM) = 34 n(BF) = 56 n(B) = 90
Doesn’t ( B`) n(B`M) = 41 n(B`F) = 69 n(B`) = 110
Total n(M) = 75 n(F) = 125 n(S) = 200
The probability that the nurse is
(a) P( FB) = n(FB) / n(S) = 56 / 200
(b) P( M) = n(M)/ n(S) = 75/ 200
(c) P( MB) = n(MB)/ n(S) = 34/ 200
(d) Part (b) is most likely to occur because its probability is more
than a and c.
(e) The probability that the nurse is Male or he has bachelor’s
degree. P( M or B) = P(M) + P(B) –P(MB)
(f) P(M or F) = P(M) + P( F)
• Three cable channels (6, 8, and 10) have quiz shows, comedies,
and dramas. The number of each is

Type of TYPE OF CHANNEL Total

Show Channel 6 Channel 8 Channel 10
Quiz show 5 2 1 8
Comedy 3 2 8 13
Drama 4 4 2 10
Total 12 8 11 31

If a show is selected at random, find the probabilities.

(a) The show is a quiz show, or it is shown on channel 8.
P( Q or C8) = P(Q)+ P(C8) – P(Q and C8)
= 8/31 + 8/31 – 2/31= 14/31
(b) The show is a Drama or a Comedy
P( D or C) = P(D)+ P( C) = 10/31 + 13/31 = 23/ 31
( c) The probability that the show is a shown on channel 10 or it is a
drama.
P(C10 or D) = P(C10) + P( D) – P (D and C10)
= 11/31 + 10/31 – 2/31
= 19/31
(d) Are the type of channel and type of show are independent.
If the type of channel and type of show are independent

P(A and B) = P(A) *P(B)

P(Q and C6) = P(Q)* P(C6)=

L.H.S = P(Q and C6) = 5/31 = 0.1613
R. H.S = P(Q) * P(C6)= 8/31 * 12/31 = 0.09989
L.H .S # R.H S
Therefore the type of channel 6 and Quiz show are not independent.
P(Q and C8) = P(Q) * P(C8)
L. H S = P( Q and C8) = 2/31
• If 37 % of high school students said that they exercise regularly,
find the probability that 5 randomly selected high school students
will say that they exercise regularly. Would you answer this event
likely or unlikely to occur? Explain your answer.
Solution
let
R be the event that the high school student they are exercise
regularly
P( R ) = 0.37
The probability that 5 randomly selected high school students will
say that they exercise regularly = 0.37*.37*.37*.37*.37
= (0.37)^5
• Given a sample space with event A and B such that P(A)= 0.342,
P(B) = 0.279, and P(A or B) = 0.601. Are A and B mutually
exclusive ? Are A and B independent . Find P(A\B), P(not B) and
P(A and B).

• P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) ( If Mutually exclusive)

• 0.601 = 0.342 + 0.279
• 0.601 # 0.621
Therefore event A and B are not mutually exclusive.

OR
• Solution
P(A) = 0.342, P(B) = 0.279, P(A or B)= 0.601
If event A and B are not mutually exclusive
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
0.601 = 0.342 + 0.279 – P(A and B)
0.601 = 0.621 – P(A and B)

P(A and B) = 0.02

Therefore, event A and B are not mutually exclusive. Because
P(A and B) is not equal to zero.
If A and B are independent ,
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)
L. H. S = P(A and B) = 0.02
R. H. S = P(A) *P(B) = 0.342*0.279=0.0954
L.H S and R.H.S are not equal. Therefore, event A and B are not
independent.

Find
P(A|B) = P(A and B)/ P(B) = 0.02/ 0.279 = 0.0717
P(not B) = 1- P(B) = 1- 0.279 = 0.721
P( A and B) = 0.02
• In a pizza restaurant , 95% of the customers order pizza. If 65%
of the customers order pizza and a salad, find the probability that
a customers who orders pizza will also order a salad.

P( S|O) = P(S and O) / P(O) = 0.65/0.95

Yangon University of Economics
Department of Statistics
PGDRS.113
Probability Theory

Chapter 4
Probability and Counting Rules
Exercises
Selecting Colored Balls: Urn 1 contains 5 red balls and 3
black balls. Urn 2 contains 3 red balls and 1 black ball. Urn
3 contains 4 red balls and 2 black balls. If an urn is selected
at random and a ball is drawn, find the probability it will be
red.
Solution:
let
𝑈1 be the event that the selected urn is 1.
𝑈2 be the event that the selected urn is 2.
𝑈3 be the event that the selected urn is 3.
R be the event that a ball drawn is red.
B be the event that a ball drawn is black.
 R

5R
3B
B

R
1
P(u2)=3 3R
1B
B

4R
2B
B
The joint probabilities are
P(𝑈1 and R) = P(𝑈1 )*P(R| 𝑈1 ) = 1/3*5/8 = 5/24
P(𝑈1 and B) = P(𝑈1 )*P(B| 𝑈1 ) = 1/3*3/8 = 3/24
P(𝑈2 and R) = P(𝑈2 )*P(R| 𝑈2 ) = 1/3*3/4= 3/12
P(𝑈2 and B ) = P(𝑈2 )*P(B| 𝑈2 )= 1/3*1/4= 1/12
P(𝑈3 and R) = P(𝑈3 )*P(R|𝑈3 ) = 1/3*4/6= 4/18
P(𝑈3 and B) = P(𝑈3 )*P(B| 𝑈3 ) = 1/3*2/6 = 2/18
The probability that a ball is drawn it will be red.
P( R)= P(𝑈1 and R)+ P(𝑈2 and R) + P(𝑈3 and R)
= 5/24 + 3/12 + 4/18
(i) Find the probability that it will be drawn red ball given that
it is contain urn 1.
P(R|𝑈1 ) = P(U1 and R) / P(U1) =

(ii) If the ball will be drawn red , the probability that the
selected urn is 1.
P(𝑈1 |R) = P(𝑈1 and R) / P(R) =
An insurance company classifies drivers low-risk, medium-risk, and
high-risk. Of those insured, 60% are low-risk, 30% are medium-risk,
and 10% are high-risk. After a study, the company finds that during a
1-year period, 1% of the low-risk drivers had accident, 5% of the
medium-risk drivers had an accident, and 9% of the high-risk drivers
had an accident. If a driver is selected at random, find the probability
that the driver will have had an accident during the year.
Solution:
Let
L be the event that the driver had low-risk insurance.
M be the event that the driver had medium-risk insurance.
H be the event that the driver had high-risk insurance.
A be the event that the driver had an accident during 1-year
period.
A` be the event that the driver did not have an accident during
1- year period.
 A

A

P(M)=0.3
M
A

A
The joint probability
P(L and A) = P(L)*P(A|L) = 0.6*0.01= 0.006
P(L and A`) = P(L)*P(A`|L)= 0.6*0.99
P(M and A) = P(M) * P(A|M) = 0.30 *0.05=0.015
P(M and A`) = P(M) * P(A`|M) = 0.03 * 0.95
P(H and A) = P(H) * P(A|H) = 0.1 * 0.09 = 0.009
P(H and A`) = P(H) * P(A`|H) = 0.1 * 0.91
The probability that the driver will have had an accident during the
year.
P(A) = P(L and A) + P(M and A) + P(H and A)
= 0.006 + 0.015 + 0.009
= 0.03(3%)
If the driver will have had an accident during the year, find the
probability that he had high-risk insurance.
P(H|A) = P( H and A) / P(A) = 0.009 / 0.03 = 0.3
 Yangon University Of
Economics

Department Of Statistics
PGDRS
 Probability Theory
PGDRS 113

Presented By
Daw Aye Aye Htwe
Associated Professor
Department Of Statistics
“At Least” Probabilities

 Remember, complementary events should be used when finding “at least” probabilities

 Multiplication rule can be also be used for these types of events

Example 4-35
A person selects 3 cards from an ordinary deck and replaces each card after it is drawn.
Find the probability that the person will get at least one heart.
Solution
Let E = at least 1 heart is drawn and
E = no hearts are drawn

P( E ) = 1 − P( E )
 39 39 39 
= 1−  . . 
 52 52 52 
3
 39 
= 1−  
 52 
≈ 0.578 = 57.8%

Hence, a person will select at least one heart about 57.8% of the time.
 “At least 1”
 P( At least 1) = 1- P(0)
 P(At least 2) = 1-[P(0)+P(1)]
 P( At least x) = 1- ( σ𝑛−1
𝑖=0 𝑃(𝑛))

 P(A) + P(A’) = 1
P(A) = 1- P(A’)

P( Workers) = 0.9 P ( no workers ) = 0.1, n=3

P(at least workers) = 1- P( no workers)
= 1- (0.1*0.1*0.1)
= 1- (0.1)^3

P(at least Female) = 1- P( all males)

Example
▸ 4-36
 A single die is rolled 4 times. Find the probability of getting at least one 6.

Solution
The probability of getting at least one 6. 4
P(at least one 6) = 1 − P (no 6s) = 1 − 
5
 
6

≈ 0.518

There is about a 51.8% chance of getting at least one 6 when a die is

rolled four times.
 Example
▸ 4-37
The Neck-ware Association of America reported that 3% of ties sold in the
USA are bow ties. If 4 customers who purchased ties are randomly selected,
find the probability that at least 1 purchased a bow tie.
Solution

Let E = at least 1 bow tie is purchased

E = no bow ties are purchased
P(E) = 0.03
P(no bow ties are purchased) = (0.97)(0.97)(0.97)(0.97) ≈ 0.885;
P(at least one bow tie is purchased) = 1 − 0.885 = 0.115.
There is an 11.5% chance of a person purchasing at least one bow tie.
4.4 – Counting Rules
 Many times, a person must know the number of all possible
outcomes for a sequence of events

 Three rules can be used:

1. Fundamental counting rule
2. Permutation rule
3. Combination rule
Fundamental Counting Rule


Example
 4-39
 A paint manufacturer wishes to manufacture several different
paints. The categories include
Color Red, blue, white, black, green, brown, yellow
Type Latex, oil
Texture Flat, semigloss, high gloss
Use Outdoor, indoor
Solution
You can choose one color and one type and one texture and one use.
Since there are 7 color choices, 2 type choices, 3 texture choices, and 2
use choices, the total number of possible different paints is as follows:

Color Type Texture Use

7 2 3 2 = 84
 When determining the number of different possibilities of a sequence
of events, you must know whether repetitions are permissible.
Example
▸ 4–41
The first year the state of Pennsylvania issued railroad memorial license
plates, the plates had a picture of a steam engine followed by four digits.
Assuming that repetitions
are allowed, how many railroad memorial plates could be issued?
Solution
Since there are four spaces to fill for each space, the total number of
plates that can be issued is
=10 · 10 · 10 · 10 = 10,000.
Note: Actually there was such a demand for the plates, Pennsylvania had to
use letters also.
Factorial Notation


Permutation Rule


Example
▸ 4–44
A radio talk show host can select 3 of 6 special guests for her
program. The order of appearance of the guests is important.
How many different ways can this be done?
Solution
Since the order of appearance on the show is important, there
are 6P3 ways to select the guests.

6! 6! 6.5.4.3.2.1 6.5.4.3!
= = =
6P3 =
(6 − 3)! 3! 3.2.1 3!

= 120
Hence, there can be 120 different ways to select 3 guests and
present them on the Program in a specific order.
Example
▸ 4–45
A school musical director can select 2 musical plays to present next
year. One will be presented in the fall, and one will be presented in the
spring. If she has 9 to pick from, how many different possibilities are
there?
Solution
Order is important since one play can be presented in the fall and the
other play in the spring.

9! 9! 9.8.7!
= =
9P2 =
(9 − 2)! 7! 7!
= 72
There are 72 different possibilities.
Example
▸ 4–46
How many permutations of the letters can be made from the word
STATISTICS?
Solution
In the word STATISTICS, there are 3 S’s, 3 T’s, 2 I’s, 1 A, and 1 C.
10! 10.9.8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1
=
3!3!2!1!1! 3.2.1.3.2.1.2.1.1.1

= 50,400
There are 50,400 permutations that can be made from the word
STATISTICS.
Combination Rule


Combination

A selection of distinct objects without regard to order is called a

combination.
The difference between a combination and a permutation can be shown
using the letters A, B, C, and D. what is left is a list of combinations, as
shown.
AB BC CD
AC BD
AD
Hence, the combinations of A, B, C, and D are AB, AC, AD, BC, BD,
and CD. (Alternatively, BA could be listed and AB crossed out, etc.)
The combinations have been listed alphabetically for convenience, but
this is not a requirement.
 The difference between a combination and a permutation can be
shown using the letters A, B, C, and D. The permutations for the letters
A, B, C, and D are
AB BA CA DA
AC BC CB DB
AD BD CD DC
In permutations, AB is different from BA. But in combinations, AB
is the same as BA since the order of the objects does not matter in
combinations. Therefore, if duplicates are removed from a list of
permutations,
Example

 4-47
 How many combinations of 4 objects are there, taken 2 at a
time?
Solution

4! 4.3.2!
4C2 = = =6
(4 − 2)!2! 2.1.2!
Example

▸ 4–48
The director of Movies at the Park must select 4 movies from a total of
10 movies to show on Movie Night at the Park. How many different
ways can the selections be made?
Solution 10! 10!
10 C 4 = =
(10 − 4)!4! 6!4!

= 210
The director has 210 different ways to select four movies from 10
movies. In this case, the order in which the movies are shown is not
important.
Examples
 4-49
 In a club there are 7 women and 5 men. A committee of 3
women and 2 men is to be chosen. How many different
possibilities are there?
Solution
We select 3 women from 7 women, which can be done in 7C3, or 35,
ways. Next, 2 men must be selected from 5 men, which can be done
in 5C2, or 10, ways. Finally, by the fundamental counting rule, the
total number of different ways is 35 · 10 = 350, since you are
choosing both men and women.

7! 5!
7C3 · 5C2 = . = 350
(7 − 3)!3! (5 − 2)!2!
4.5 – Probability & Counting Rules
 Counting rules can be combined with probability rules to solve
many types of probability problems

 Example 4-50
 Find the probability of getting 4 Aces when 5 cards are drawn
from an ordinary deck of cards.
Solution
There are 52C5 ways to draw 5 cards from a deck. There is only 1
way to get 4 aces (that is, 4C4), but there are 48 possibilities to get
the fifth card. Therefore, there are 48 ways to get 4 aces and 1 other
card. Hence,

C4 .48 48 1
P(4 aces) =
4
= =
52 C5 2598960 54145
Example
 4-51
 A box contains 24 integrated circuits, 4 of which are defective. If 4
are sold at random, find the following probabilities

a. Exactly 2 are defective

b. None is defective

c. All are defective

d. At least 1 is defective
 Solution

C2 .20 C2 190
a) P(exactly 2 defectives)=
4
=
C
24 4 1771

C4 1615
b) P(no defectives) =
20
=
24 C4 3542

1 1
c) P(all defective) = =
24 C 4 10626

C4 1927
d) P(at least 1 defective) = 1− 20
=
24 C 4 3542
Example
 4-54

 There are 8 married couples in a tennis club. If 1 man and 1

woman are selected at random to plan the summer tournament,
find the probability that they are married to each other.
Solution
Since there are 8 ways to select the man and 8 ways to select the
woman, there are 8 ・ 8, or 64, ways to select 1 man and 1 woman.
Since there are 8 married couples, the solution
is 8 = 1 .
64 8
 Yangon University Of
Economics
PGDRS

Department Of Statistics
Probability Theory
PGDRS 113

Presented By
Daw Aye Aye Htwe
Associated Professor
Department Of Statistics
EXAMPLE 5–8 On Hold for Talk Radio
A talk radio station has four telephone lines. If the host is unable
to talk (i.e., during a commercial) or is talking to a person, the
other callers are placed on hold. When all lines are in use, others
who are trying to call in get a busy signal.
The probability that variance and standard deviation for the
distribution.
 XXX 0 1 2 3 4

P(X) 0.18 0.34 0.23 0.21 0.04

Should the station have considered getting more phone lines installed?
S O LU T I O N
The mean is

=0*(0.18)+1*(0.34)+2*(0.23)+3*(0.21)+4*(0.04) =1.59

The variance is

= [(𝟎)𝟐 *0.18 + (𝟏)𝟐 ∗ 𝟎. 𝟑𝟒 + 𝟐 𝟐

∗ 𝟎. 𝟐𝟑 + 𝟑 𝟐
∗ 𝟎. 𝟐𝟏 + (𝟒)𝟐 ∗0.04] = 1.262]
 The standard deviation (or)

≈ 1.121
No. The mean number of people calling at any one time is 1.59.
Since the standard deviation is 1.123, most callers would be
accommodated by having four phone lines
Because μ + 2σ would be 1.59 + 2(1.123) = 3.836 ≈ 4.0. Very few
callers would get a busy signal since at least 75% of the callers
would either get through or be put on hold.
Expectation
Another concept related to the mean for a probability distribution is
that of expected value or expectation. Expected value is used in
various types of games of chance, in insurance, and in other areas,
such as decision theory.
The expected value of a discrete random variable of a probability
distribution is the
theoretical average of the variable. The formula is
μ = E(X) = ΣX ・ P(X)
The symbol E(X) is used for the expected value. The formula for
the expected value is the same as the formula for the theoretical
mean. The expected value, then, is the theoretical mean of the
probability distribution.
That is, E(X) = μ.When expected value problems involve money, it
is customary to round the answer to the nearest cent.
EXAMPLE 5-9 Winning Tickets
One thousand tickets are sold at $1 each for a smart television valued
at $750. What is the expected value of the gain if you purchase one
ticket?
S O LU T I O N
The problem can be set up as follows:
Win Losew
Gain X $749 −$1
Probability P(X) 1/1000 999/1000

Two things should be noted. First, for a win, the net gain is
$749, since you do not get the cost of the ticket ($1) back.
Second, for a loss, the gain is represented by a negative number,
in this case −$1. The solution, then, is
 X P(X) X P(X)

1 749
Gain $749 1000 1000

999 999
Loss (-$1) 1000
- 1000
25
- 1000
= −$ 0.25
E(X) = ($749)*1/1000 + (−$1)*999/1000= −$0.25
Hence, a person would lose, on average, −$0.25 on each ticket
purchased.
Expected value problems of this type can also be solved by finding the
overall gain(i.e., the value of the prize won or the amount of money
won, not considering the cost of the ticket for the prize or the cost to
play the game) and subtracting the cost of the tickets or the cost to play
the game, as shown:

E(X) = ($750)*1/1000 − $1 = −$0.25

Note that the expectation is −$0.25. This does not mean that you lose
$0.25, since you can only win a television set valued at $750 or lose $1
on the ticket. What this expectation means is that the average of the
losses is $0.25 for each of the 1000 ticket holders. Here is another way
of looking at this situation: If you purchased one ticket each week over
a long time, the average loss would be $0.25 per ticket, since
theoretically, on average, you would win the television set once for
each 1000 tickets purchased.
EXAMPLE 5–10 Bond Investment
A financial adviser suggests that his client select one of two types of
bonds in which to invest $5000. Bond X pays a return of 4% and has a
default rate of 2%. Bond Y has a 2.5 % return and a default rate of 1%.
Find the expected rate of return and decide which bond would be a better
investment. When the bond defaults, the investor loses all the investment.
S O LU T I O N
The return on bond X is $5000 · 4% = $200. The expected return then is
E(X) = $200(0.98) − $5000(0.02) = $96
The return on bond Y is $5000 · 2 .5% = $125. The expected return then
is
E(Y) = $125(0.99) − $5000(0.01) = $73.75
Hence, bond X would be a better investment since the expected return is
higher.
Exercise
1. Suit Sales :The number of suits sold per day at a retail store is shown in
the table, with the corresponding probabilities. Find the mean, variance, and
standard deviation of the distribution.

Number of suits sold X 19 20 21 22 23

Probability P(X ) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

If the manager of the retail store wants to be sure that he has enough suits for
the next 5 days, how many should the manager purchase?
X P(X) X P(X) X^2 P(X)

19 0.2 3.8 72.2

20 0.2 4 80

21 0.3 6.3 132.3

22 0.2 4.4 96.8

23 0.1 2.3 52.9

20.8 434.2
 Mean, E(X)=20.8 = 21suits
 Variance , V(X)= 434.2- (20.8)^2 = 1.56 (Suits)^2
 Standard Deviation , SD(X) = 1.56 = 1.249 (suits)
 For the next 5 days , he would purchases,

= 5 * 20.8 = 104 suits

2. Winning the Lottery:
For a daily lottery, a person selects a three- digit number. If the person plays
for $1, she can win $500. Find the expectation.

E(X) = $ 499* 1/1000 + (-$1)* 999/1000 = - $ 0.5

In the same daily lottery. If a person boxes a number , she will win $80. Find
the expectation if the number 123 is played for $1 and boxed.

E(X) = $ 79 * 1/1000 + (- $ 1) * 999/1000 = -$ 0.92

Yangon University Of Economics
Department of Statistics
PGDRS
PGDRS-113
Probability Theory
Week 7
Probability Theory
PGDRS 113

Presented By
Daw Aye Aye Htwe
Associated Professor
Department Of Statistics
5–4 Other Types of Distributions
In addition to the binomial distribution, other types of distributions are used in
statistics. Four of the most commonly used distributions are the multinomial
distribution, the Poisson.

The Multinomial Distribution

Recall that for an experiment to be binomial, two outcomes are required for each
trial. But if each trial in an experiment has more than two outcomes, a distribution
called the multinomial distribution must be used. For example, a survey might
require the responses of “approve,” “disapprove,” or “no opinion.” In another
situation, a person may have a choice of one of five activities for Friday night, such
as a movie, dinner, baseball game, play, or party. Since these situations have more
than two possible outcomes for each trial, the binomial distribution cannot be used
to compute probabilities.
 A multinomial experiment is a probability experiment that satisfies the following
four requirements:
1. There must be a fixed number of trials.
2. Each trial has a specific—but not necessarily the same—number of outcomes.
3. The trials are independent.
4. The probability of a particular outcome remains the same.
Formula for the Multinomial Distribution

Where and
EXAMPLE 5–24 Coffee Shop Customers
A small airport coffee shop manager found that the probabilities a customer buys
0,1,2, or 3 cups of coffee are 0.3.0.5,0.15, and 0.05, respectively. If 8 customers
enter the shop, find the probability that 2 will purchase something other than coffee
,4 will purchase 1 cup of coffee, 1 will purchase 2cups, and 1 will purchase 3 cups.
S O LU T I O N

Let

There is a 0.0354 probability that the results will occur as described.

The Poisson Distribution
A discrete probability distribution that is useful when n is large and p is small and
when the independent variables occur over a period of time is called the Poisson
distribution. In addition to being used for the stated conditions (that is, n is large, p is
small, and the variables occur over a period of time), the Poisson distribution can be
used when a density of items is distributed over a given area or volume, such as the
number of plants growing per acre or the number of defects in a given length of
videotape.
 A Poisson experiment is a probability experiment
that satisfies the following requirements:
1. The random variable X is the number of
occurrences of an event over ., length, area,
volume, period of time, etc.).
2. The occurrences occur randomly.
3. The occurrences are independent of one another.
4. The average number of occurrences over an
interval is known.
Formula for the Poisson Distribution
The probability of X occurrences in an interval of time, volume , area ,etc ., for
variable where is the mean number of occurrence per unit ( ) is

The letter e is a constant approximately equal to 2.7183.

EXAMPLE 5–25 Typographical Errors
If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a 500-page manuscript,
find the probability that a given page contains exactly 3 errors.
S O LU T I O N
First, find the mean number λ of errors. Since there are 200 errors distributed over
500 pages, each page has an average of

λ =200/500= 2/5= 0.4

or 0.4 error per page. Since X = 3, substituting into the formula yields

𝑒 −λ λ0.4 𝑒 −0.4 0.43

P(X;λ) = = ≈ 0.0072
𝑋! 3!

Thus, there is less than a 1% chance that any given page will contain exactly 3 errors.
EXAMPLE 5–26 Toll-Free Telephone Calls
A sale firm receives, on average, 3 calls per hour on its toll-free number. For any
given hour, find the probability that it will receive the following.
(a) At most 3 calls (b) At least 3 calls(c) 5 or more calls
S O LU T I O N
Let X be the number of telephone call per hour.
λ be the average of telephone call per hour.

𝑒 −3 3𝑥
P(X;3) = : x = 0,1,2,………
𝑥!
S O LU T I O N
a. “At most 3 calls” means 0, 1, 2, or 3 calls. Hence,

P(x⩽3 )=P(x=0)+P(x=1)+P(x=2)+P(x=3)
=0.0498+0.1494+0.2240+0.2240=0.6472

b. “At least 3 calls” means 3 or more calls. It is easier to find the probability of 0, 1,
and 2 calls and then subtract this answer from 1 to get the probability of at least 3
calls.

P(x⩾3)=P(x=3)+P(x=4)+P(x=5)+……
(or)
=1-P(x<3)
=1-〔P(x=0)+P(x=1)+P(x=2)〕
=1-(0.0498+0.1494+0.2240)
=1-0.4232= 0.5768
c. For the probability of 5 or more calls, it is easier to find the probability of
getting 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 calls and subtract this answer from 1. Hence,
P(x⩾5)= P(x=5)+P(x=6)+….
(or)
=1-P(x<5)
=1- 〔P(x=0)+P(x=1)+P(x=2)+P(x=3)+P(x=4)〕
=1-(0.0498+0.1494+0.2240+0.2240+0.1680)
=1-0.8152=0.1848
Thus, for the event described, the part a events is most likely to occur, and the part
c event is least likely to occur.
Binomial Approximation

➢The Poisson distribution can also be used to approximate the binomial

distribution when the expected value λ = n · p is less than 5, as shown in
Example 5–30. (The same is true when n · q < 5.)

➢In Binomial Distribution , Mean is μ = n*p

➢In Poisson Distribution, Mean is λ
➢Mean , λ = μ= n*p (less than 5)
 Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation

Mean
µ=λ

Variance
σ2 = λ

Standard Deviation
𝜎= λ
 Yangon University Of Economics
Department of Statistics
PGDRS
PGDRS-113
Probability Theory
Week 8

McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2008

 Probability Theory
PGDRS 113

Presented By
Daw Aye Aye Htwe
Associated Professor
Department Of Statistics
The Hyper-geometric Distribution

When sampling is done without replacement, the binomial

distribution does not give exact probabilities, since the trials are not
independent. The smaller the size of the population, the less accurate
the binomial probabilities will be.
For example, suppose a committee of 4 people is to be selected from
7 women and 5 men. What is the probability that the committee will
consist of 3 women and 1 man?
➢ To solve this problem, you must find the number of ways a
committee of 3 women and 1 man can be selected from 7 women
and 5 men. This answer can be found by using combinations; it is

➢ Next, find the total number of ways a committee of 4

people can be selected from 12 people. Again, by the use
of combinations, the answer is
Finally, the probability of getting a committee of 3 women and 1
man from 7 women and 5 men is

P(X) = 175/495 = 35/99 = 0.3535

The results of the problem can be generalized by using a special

probability distribution called the hyper-geometric distribution. The
hyper-geometric distribution is a distribution of a variable that has
two outcomes when sampling is done without replacement.
A hyper-geometric experiment is a probability experiment that
satisfies the following requirements:

1. There are a fixed number of trials.

2. There are two outcomes, and they can be classified as success or
failure.
3. The sample is selected without replacement
Formula for the Hyper-geometric Distribution
Given a population with only two types of objects (females and
males, defective and non defective, successes and failures, etc.),
such that there are a items of one kind and b items of another kind
and a + b equals the total population, the probability P(X) of
selecting without replacement a sample of size n with X items of
type a and
n − X items of type b is
The basis of the formula is that there are ways of selecting
the first type of items, ways of selecting the second type of
items, and ways of selecting n items from the entire
population.

EXAMPLE 5–27 Assistant Manager Applicants

Ten people apply for a job as assistant manager of a restaurant.
Five have completed college and five have not. If the manager
selects 3 applicants at random, find the probability that all 3 are
college graduates.
S O LU T I O N

Assigning the values to the variables gives

a = 5 college graduates, n = 3 , X = 3
b = 5 non-graduates ,
and n − X = 0. Substituting in the formula gives

There is a 0.083 probability that all 3 applicants will be college

graduates.
 Geometric Distribution

A geometric experiment is a probability experiment

if it satisfies the following requirements:
❖ 1. Each trial has two outcomes that can be either
success or failure.
❖ 2. The outcomes are independent of each other.
❖ 3. The probability of a success is the same for
each trial.
❖ 4. The experiment continues until a success is
obtained.

10
 Formula for the Geometric Distribution

Bluman, Chapter 5
11
 EXAMPLE 5–35 Blood Types

12
 This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC

13
YANGON UNIVERSITY OF
ECONOMICS
DEPARTMENT OF
STATISTICS

PGDRS
 Probability Theory
PGDRS 113

Presented By
Daw Aye Aye Htwe
Associated Professor
Department Of Statistics
CHECKING FOR NORMALITY
Histogram
Pearson’s Index PI of Skewness
Outliers
Other Tests
Normal Quantile Plot
Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test
Kolmogorov-Smikirov Test
Lilliefors Test

BLUMAN, CHAPTER 6 3
DETERMINING NORMALITY
Histogram

To draw a histogram for the data and check its shape. If

the histogram is not approximately bell- shaped, then the
data are not normally distributed.
DETERMINING NORMALITY
Pearson’s Index PI of Skewness

Skewness can be checked by using the Pearson coefficient (PC)

of skewness also called Pearson’s index of skewness. The
formula is
ഥ −𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛)
3(𝑋
𝑃𝐶 =
𝑠

If the index is greater than or equal to +1 or less

than or equal to −1, it can be concluded that the data
are significantly skewed.
DETERMINING NORMALITY
Outliers
Q1 , Q2 , Q3, IQR = Q3 − Q1

the data should be checked for outliers by using

the method
 EXAMPLE 6–11 TECHNOLOGY INVENTORIES

A survey of 18 high-tech firms showed the number of days’ inventory they had on
hand. Determine if the data are approximately normally distributed.
5 29 34 44 45 63 68 74 74
81 88 91 97 98 113 118 151 158
Solution Frequency distribution

Class class
limits Frequency boundaries

5–29 2 4.5 – 29.5

30–54 3 29.5-54.5
55–79 4 54.5- 79.5
80–104 5 79.5-104.5
105–129 2 104.5-129.5
130–154 1 129.5-154.5
155–179 1 154.5 – 179.5
Total 18
 5
4
3
2

4.5 29.5 54.5 79.5 104.5 129.5 154.5 179.5

Since the histogram is approximately bell-shaped,

we can say that the distribution is approximately
normal
 σ𝑥 1431
𝑋ഥ = = = 79.5
𝑛 18
74+81
Median = = 77.5
2

σ 𝑥 2 −𝑛𝑥ҧ 2 σ 141585−18 ×79.52

S = = = 40.5
𝑛−1 17

ഥ −𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛)
3(𝑋
PC =
𝑠
= 3(79.5 − 77.5)
40.5
= 0.148
PC is not greater than +1 or less than −1, so it can be concluded that the distribution
is not significantly skewed.
Q1 = 45 and Q3 = 98
IQR = Q3 − Q1 = 98 − 45 = 53
45 − 1.5(53) = −34.5
98 + 1.5(53) = 177.5
There are no outliers.

Since the histogram is approximately bell-shaped, the data are not

significantly skewed, and there are no outliers, it can be concluded that
the distribution is approximately normally distributed.
 EXAMPLE 6–12 NUMBER OF BASEBALL
GAMES PLAYED

The data shown consist of the number of games played each year in the career of Base-
ball Hall of Famer Bill Mazeroski. Determine if the data are approximately normally
distributed.
81 148 152 135 151 152 159 142 34 162 130 162
163 143 67 112 70
 Class Frequency Class boundaries
34–58 1 33.5-58.5
59–83 3 58.5-83.5
84–108 0 83.5-108.5
109–133 2 108.5-133.5
134–158 7 133.5-158.5
159–183 4 158.5-183

8
7
6
5
Frequency

4
3
2
1

33.5 58.5 83.5 108.5 133.5 158.5 183.5

Games
X = 127.24, median = 143, and s = 39.87.
ഥ −𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛)
3(𝑋
PC =
𝑠
= 3(127.24 − 143)
= 39.87
≈ −1.19
Since the PC is less than −1, it can be concluded that the
distribution is significantly skewed to the left.
Q1 = 96.5 and Q3 = 155.5.
IQR = Q3 − Q1 = 155.5 − 96.5 = 59
96.5 − 1.5(59) = 8
155.5 + 1.5(59) = 244
There are no outliers. The distribution is negatively skewed.
6.3 THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

In addition to knowing how individual data values vary

about the mean for a population, statisticians are
interested in knowing how the means of samples of the
same size taken from the same population vary about
the population mean.

BLUMAN, CHAPTER 6 14
 DISTRIBUTION OF SAMPLE MEANS

A sampling distribution of sample means is a distribution obtained by

using the means computed from random samples of a specific size taken
from a population.

Sampling error is the difference between the sample measure and the corresponding
population measure due to the fact that the sample is not a perfect representation of
the population.

BLUMAN, CHAPTER 6 15
 PROPERTIES OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF
SAMPLE MEANS

❖The mean of the sample means will be the same as the population
mean.

❖The standard deviation of the sample means will be smaller than the
standard deviation of the population, and will be equal to the population
standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size.

BLUMAN, CHAPTER 6 16
WITH REPLACEMENT
The following example illustrates these two properties.
Suppose a professor gave an 8-point quiz to a small class of four students.
The results of the quiz were 2, 6, 4, and 8. For the sake of discussion, assume
that the four students constitute the population.
X: 2,6,4,8 N=4
The mean of the population is
2+6+4+8
𝜇= =5
4
WITH REPLACEMENT

The number of possible sample = 𝑁 𝑛 = 42 = 16

1. 𝜇𝑥 = 𝜇
The mean of the sampling distribution is unbiased estimator of the population.
𝜎2 𝜎
2. 𝜎𝑥2 = OR 𝜎𝑥 =
𝑛 𝑛
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF THE SAMPLE MEAN
The mean of the sample means, denoted by
2+3+⋯+8 80
𝜇𝑥 = = =5
16 16

which is the same as the population mean. Hencece,

𝜇𝑥 = 𝜇
 THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
As the sample size n increases, the shape of the distribution of the sample
means taken with replacement from a population with mean  and
standard deviation  will approach a normal distribution.
The mean of the sample means equals the population mean.
X = 
The standard deviation of the sample means is called the standard error of the
mean.
X = n.
A third property of the sampling distribution of sample means pertains to the shape of
the distribution and is explained by the central limit theorem.

BLUMAN, CHAPTER 6 24
Used to gain information about an individual data value when the variable is
normally distributed
𝑥−𝜇
z=
𝜎

Used to gain information when applying the central limit theorem about a sample
or more
𝑋ത − 𝜇
z= 𝜎
𝑛
EXAMPLE 6–13 HOURS THAT CHILDREN WATCH
TELEVISION

A. C. Nielsen reported that children between the ages of 2 and 5

watch an average of 25 hours of television per week. Assume the
variable is normally distributed and the standard deviation is 3
hours. If 20 children between the ages of 2 and 5 are randomly
selected, find the probability that the mean of the number of hours
they watch television will be greater than 26.3 hours.
SOLUTION

𝜇 = 25 , 𝜎 = 3 , n = 20
𝜎 3
𝜎𝑥ҧ = = = 0.671
𝑛 20 25 26.3
𝑋−𝜇 ത
26.3 −25
ഥ
𝑃 𝑋 > 26.3 = 1 − 𝑃 ( 𝜎 < 3 )
ൗ 𝑛 ൗ 20
= 1 − P z < 1.94
= 1 − 0.9738
= 0.0262 or 2.62%
The probability that the 20 children selected between the ages of 2 and 5 watch
more than 26.3 hours of television per week is 2.62%.
EXAMPLE 6–14 DRIVE TIMES

The average drive to work is 9.6 miles. Assume the standard deviation is 1.8
miles. If a random sample of 36 employed people who drive to work are
selected, find the probability that the mean of the sample miles driven to work
is between 9 and 10 miles. 𝑥

Solution
𝜇 = 9.6 , 𝜎 = 1.8 , n = 36

𝜎 1.8
𝜎𝑥ҧ = = = 0.3
𝑛 36
9 9.6 10
 9 −9.6 𝑋ത − 𝜇 10 −9.6
𝑃 9 < 𝑋ഥ < 10 = 𝑃 (1.8 < 𝜎 < 1.8 )
ൗ 36 ൗ 𝑛 ൗ 36

= P −2 < z < 1.33

= P( z< 1.33) – P( z < -2)
= 0.9082 – 0.0228
= 0.8854 or 88.54%
The probability that the mean mileage driven to work for a
sample size of 36 is between 9 and 10 miles is 88.54%.
EXAMPLE 6–15 WORKING WEEKENDS

The average time spent by construction workers who work on weekends is

7.93 hours (over 2 days). Assume the distribution is approximately normal
and has a standard deviation of 0.8 hour.
a. Find the probability that an individual who works at that trade works
fewer than 8 hours on the weekend.
b. If a sample of 40 construction workers is randomly selected, find the
probability that the mean of the sample will be less than 8 hours.
 Solution
𝜇 = 7.93 , 𝜎 = 0.8 , n = 40

𝑥 −𝜇 8 −7.93
P ( x< 8) = P( < )
𝜎 0.8
= P(z < 0.09)
= 0.5359 or 53.59% 7.93 8
Hence, the probability of selecting a construction worker who works less than 8
hours on a weekend is 0.5359, or 53.59%.
𝑋ത − 𝜇 8 −7.93
𝑃 𝑋ഥ < 8 = 𝑃( 𝜎 < 0.8 )
ൗ 𝑛 ൗ 40
= P z < 0.55
= 0.7088 or 70.88%
7.93 8
Hence, the probability of getting a sample mean of less than 8 hours when the
sample size is 40 is 0.7088, or 70.88%.
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA-NC