GRACE MISSION COLLEGE

Catiningan, Socorro, Oriental Mindoro

e-Mail: [email protected]

PROBABILITY

COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS

Probability theory Is an integral part of statistics. It forms the foundation of statistical inference. It provides
measures of uncertainty in decision-making and in drawing conclusions from experimental data.

One of the difficulties in evaluating probabilities of events is determining how many possible outcomes (sample
points) a random experiment will have and how many of these total possible outcomes (sample space) have a particular
attribute (event). There are several principles of counting sample points namely, multiplication rule. permutation, and
combination.

Multiplication Rule

The fundamental principle of counting sample points is referred to as the multiplication rule which is stated as
follows:

Theorem 1. If an operation can be performed in 𝑛1 ways, and if for each of these a second operation can be performed
in n, ways, then the two operations can be pertormed together in (𝑛1 , 𝑛2 ) ways.

Example: If Angeli can take either a bus or jeepney in four possible routes from her school to her home, in how many
possible ways can she make her trip?

Solution: N = (2)(4) or 8 possible ways.

Theorem 2. Generalized Multiplication Rule. If an operation can be performed in 𝑛1 ways, and if for each or these a
second operation can be performed in 𝑛2 ways, and for each of the first two a third operation can be performed in 𝑛3
ways, and so forth, then the sequence of k operations can be performed in (𝑛1 )( 𝑛2 … (𝑛3 ) ways.

Example: The participants of a three-day convention are offered 5 sightseeing tours. For each day, they can choose one
tour to take. In how many ways can a participant arrange a three-day tour schedule (a) with repetition? (b) without
repetition?

Solution: (a) (5)(5)(5)= 53 = 125

(b) (5)(4)(3) = 60

Permutation

A permutation is an arrangement of all or a part of a set of objects.

Theorem 3. The number permutations of n distinct objects taken n at d time s n!

Example: How many distinct permutations can be made from the letters of the word “word”?

Solution: N = 4! = (4)(3)(2)(1) = 24

Theorem 4. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

 𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!

Example: How many ways can 7 students be seated in a row of 3 chairs?

7! (7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
Solution: ₇𝑃3 = = = (7)(6)(5) = 210
4! (4)(3)(2)(1)

Theorem 5. The number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is

(n-1)!

Example: In how many ways can 11 different bushes be planted in a circular arrangement?

Solution: N = (11-1)! = 10! = 362880 ways

Theorem 6. The number of distinct permutations of n things of which 𝑛1 are of one kind, 𝑛2 of a second kind, …, 𝑛𝑘 of
a kth kind is

𝑛!
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 ! … 𝑛𝑘 !

Example: How many distnct permutations caln be formed from all the letters of the word "PHILlPPINES”?
11! 11!
Solution: N = = = 1108800 ways.
3!3!1!1!1!1!1! 3!3!

Combination

The number of selections of r objects from n objects without regard to order is called combination. A
combination is actually partition with two cells, one cell containing the r objects selected and the other cell containing
the (n-r) objects that are left.

Theorem 7. The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

𝑛 𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = ( ) =
𝑟 (𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!

Example: In how many ways can 3 candidates be selected trom 9 equally qualified applicants for job openings in an
accounting firm?

9 9!
Solution: ₉𝑃3 = ( ) = = 84 ways
3 6!3!

PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

Random Experiment

A random experiment is a process of action that results in one of a number of possible outcomes. The outcomes
that occurs cannot be predicted with certainty. The list of all possible outcome of a random experiment is called the
sample space and is denoted by S. The elements in the sample space are called sample points. An event is a subset of
the sample space with a particular attribute. An event may be simple or compound. A simple event contains exactly one
sample point while a compound event is an event containing a collection of simple events.
 Probability is a numerical value between 0 and l, inclusive, that measures how likely a particular event will
occur. In assigning probabilities to the occurrences of events in a random experiment, there are two approaches that can
be utilized. The first approach 1s the Theoretical or A Priori approach and the second is the Relative Frequency or A
Posteriori approach.

Two basic requirements must be satisfied in assigning probabilities to simple events A:

a. 0≤ 𝑃 (𝐴𝑗 ) for each 𝑗

b. ∑𝑛𝑗=1 𝑃(𝐴𝑗 )−= 1

A Priori Probability

The A Priori probability is defined as the number of sample points in an event, say N(A), divided by the
number of sample points in the sample space S, say N(S). In symbols,
𝑁(𝐴) number of sample points in A
P(A) = =
𝑁(𝑆) number of sample points in S

The classical definition of probability is given as follows: If an experiment can occur in N mutually exclusive
and equally likely ways, and if n of these outcomes have an attribute A, then the probability of A is the fraction.
𝑛
P(A) =
𝑁

A Posteriori Probability

The A Posteriori Probability is defined as the number of times an event occurs divided by the number of times
the experiment is repeated. In symbols,
number of times an event occurs
P(A) =
number of times the experiment is repeated

P(A) is determined using the Law of Large Numbers which states that as the number of times a random
experiment is repeated becomes larger, the proportion of the number of times an event occurs to the number of times
the random experiment is done tends to come closer to the actual probability.

Probability is a mathematical concept that is used to measure the certainty and uncertainty of the occurrence of
any statistical phenomenon. It is powerful tool that helps in making decisions and predictions when faced with options
that lead to uncertain outcomes. Often, it is desired that the probability of one event occurring is known, given that a
second event occurs. The probability that an event, say B, will occur when it is known that some prior event, say A, has
occurred is called a conditional probability. This can be denoted by P(B|A).

Conditional Probability

The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by P(B A), is defined by

𝑃(𝐴⋂𝐵)
P(B|A) = , if P(A) > 0.
𝑃(𝐴)

Example: A pair of fair dice is thrown. Find the probability that the sum is greater than 8, given that

a) a 4 appears on the first die; and

b) a 4 appears on at least one of the dice.

Solutions:

a.) Let A be the event that 4 appears on the first die. The reduced sample space is A = {(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4),
(4,5), (4,6)}. Let B be the event that the sum is greater than 8. Then the elements in B = {(3,6), (4,5), (4,6), (5,
4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}. The intersection of A and B or (A⋂B)= {(4, 5), (4, 6)}. Therefore
 2
36 2 1
P(B│A) = 6 = =
6 3
36

b.) Let A be the event that 4 appears on at least one of the dice. The reduced sample space is A = {(4,1), (4,2),
(4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6), (1,4), (2,4), (3,4), (5,4), (6,4)}. Let B the event that the sum is greater than 8. The
elements in B= {(3,6), (4,5), (4,6), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}. Then the intersection of A and
B or (A⋂B) = {(4, 5), (4, 6), (5, 4), (6, 4). Therefore,
4
36 4
P(B│A) = 11 =
11
36

BASIC PROBABILITY LAWS

Addition Law

a.) For any two events A and B of a sample space:

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A⋂B).

Mutually Exclusive Events

If A⋂B= ∅ , then A and B are said to be mutually exclusive events.

b) For any two mutually exclusive events A and B of a sample space:

P(AUB)- P(A) + P(B)

c) For n mutually exclusive events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2, 𝐴3 … , 𝐴𝑛 ) Ay , of a sample space:

P(𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ … 𝐴𝑛 ) = P(𝐴 ) + P(𝐴2 ) + P(𝐴𝑛 )

Example: What is the probability of getting a jack or spade if one card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards?

Solution: Let be the event that a jack will be drawn, and let B be the event that a spade will be drawn. Hence, P(A)
4 13 1
= ; 𝑃(𝐵) = ; P(A ∩ 𝐵) =
52 52 52

Therefore, P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ 𝐵).

4 13 1 16 4
= + − = =
52 52 52 52 13

Complementation Law

For any event A of sample space:

P (A’) = 1 – P(A), where A’ is the complementary event of A .

Example: If 3 coins are tossed, what is the probability that at least 1 head will occur?
1 7
Solution: P(at least one head) = 1 –P(no head) = 1 - = .
8 8

Multiplication Law

For any two events A and B of a sample space,

𝐵 𝐴
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) ● P( ) = P(B) ● P( )
𝐴 𝐵
 Independent Events

Events A and B are independent if and only if

P(B│A) = P(B) and P(B│A) = P(A)

Otherwise, A and B are dependent.

For two independent events A and B of a sample space:

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) ● P(B)

Example: A box contains 6 mangos and 4 oranges. If three fruits are to be drawn from the box, what is the probability
that all 3 are mangoes a) with replacement? B) without replacement?

Solution:
6 6 6 27
(a) P(𝑀1 ∩ 𝑀2 ∩ 𝑀3 ) = ( ) ( ) ( ) =
10 10 10 125
6 5 4 120 1
(b) P(𝑀1 ∩ 𝑀2 ∩ 𝑀3 ) = ( ) ( ) ( ) = =
10 9 8 720 6

ACTIVITY

1. In how many ways can one rent a car if there are 5 different models, 8 different colors, and 4 chauffeurs to
choose from?
2. In how many ways can a student answer a "True" or "False" type of test consisting of 10 questions if he/she
must answer either "True" or "False" only?
3. In an oratorical contest, in how many ways can the 1 st, 2nd, and 3rd prizes be given to 10 contestants if there are
no ties?
4. What is the probability that 3 from 9 Math majors and 2 from 6 Physics majors will be chosen to represent the
College in the Integrated Science Quiz?
5. What is the probability that Prof. Oscar will buy a computer unit upon receiving her incentive bonus this week
5
if the probability that she will receive her incentive bonus this week is while the probability that she will buy
8
4
a computer unit and at the same time receive her incentive bonus this week is ?
9