Introduction to Statistics and

Quantitative Research Methods

Edited from original source by fraserhealth

 Statistics Definition
• Statistics (stat.) is “the science of using
information discovered from studying numbers.”
(Cambridge dictionary)
• A fact or piece of data obtained from a study of a
large quantity of numerical data.(Oxford
dictionary)
• The mathematics of the collection, organization,
and interpretation of numerical data, especially
the analysis of population characteristics by
inference from sampling.(American Heritage)

2
 What is statistics?
• The science that deals with the collection,
classification, analysis and interpretation of
numerical data.
• Using mathematical theories of probability.
𝑁
1
𝑥= 𝑥𝑖
𝑁
1
𝑁
1 2
𝜎= 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥
𝑁−1
1
𝑥−𝑥
𝑧=
𝜎
𝑧 𝑧2
1 −
𝑓 𝑧 = 𝑒 2 𝑑𝑧
2𝜋 −∞

3
 Research Process: Basic steps
• Develop a research question
– Based on an initial observation
– Generated explanations, or theories of those
observations

How many different

Average birth weight in babies of
types of clouds do
Thailand is 2.5 kilograms?
you see? How do
they differ? 7
 Research Process: Basic steps
• Develop a research question
– Based on an initial observation
– Generated explanations, or theories of those observations
• Conduct thorough literature review
• Re-define research questions  hypotheses
– Conducted predictions (hypotheses)
• Design research methodology/study
• Apply for ethics approval
• Collect data
– Primary (direct from observation)
– Secondary data (pre-collected by third party)
• Analyse data
• Draw conclusions and relate findings
8
 Ask a question

Do background research

Construct hypothesis Try again

Test the hypothesis

Draw a conclusion
PROVEN DISPROVEN
Hypothesis is proven Hypothesis is disproven

Report results
 Research Questions Types
• Research begins when there is a question
• Descriptive type
– Ex: How many hours a week do employee
spend at their desks?
• Inferential type
– Ex: What risk factors most predict heart
disease?

10
 Types of Statistics
• Descriptive Statistics
– Describe the relationship between variables
– E.g. Frequencies, Means, standard deviation
• Inferential Statistics
– Make inferences about the population,
based on a random sample.

11
 Descriptive and Inferential Statistics
Ex. Consider event of tossing dice. The dice is rolled 100
times and the results are forming the sample data.
• Descriptive statistics is used to grouping the sample data
to the following table

• Inferential statistics can now be used to verify whether

the dice is a fair or not.
12
 Variables
• In context of research, variable is the
characteristic or phenomenon that can be
measured or classified.
• Quantitative variables can be classified as
either discrete or continuous.
• Qualitative (or categorical) variables consist
of 4 types of variables:
Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, Ratio

13
 Levels for Qualitative Variables
• Nominal
– Data that is classified into categories and cannot
be arranged in any particular order.
– E.g. Gender, eye colour, ethnicity
• Ordinal
– Data that can be ordered, but distance between
intervals not always equal
– E.g. rating a brand of soft drink on a scale of 1-5

14
 Levels of Data
• Interval
– Data that can be ordered and distance between
each interval is equal
– Arbitrary zero point
– E.g. 1,2,3
• Ratio
– Similar to interval scale, but has true zero point
– E.g. weight, salary ($0 = $0)

15
 Types of Variables
• An independent
– The variable that will influence to outcome
measure
• A dependent
– The variable that is dependent on or influence by
the independent variable(s).

16
 Types of Variables
• An intervening variable is the variable that links
the independent and dependent variable
– Independent  Intervening  Dependent
E.g. Educational level  Occupational level  Income level

• A confounding variable is a variable that has

many other variables, or dimensions built into it.
– For example: GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
• Expenditure (total spending)
• Income

17
 Group Exercise
• Researcher Purple wants to examine if a women's consumption of
calcium is related to large foot size. Calcium is measured in
milligrams, and foot size is measured in centimetres. Researcher
Purple hypothesizes that calcium affects foot size.
• Researcher Orange wants to know if a man’s consumption of
orange juice is related to an increase in male pattern baldness.
Consumption of orange juice is measured in millilitres, and male
pattern baldness is measured on a scale of 1-3 (1=totally bald,
2=some balding, 3=no balding). Researcher Orange hypothesizes
that orange juice affects male pattern baldness.
• Researcher Blue wants to know if pet type has a relationship with
happiness. Pet type is measured on a scale of 1-5 (1=cat,2=dog,
3=bird, 4=fish, 5=other). Happiness is measured on a scale of 1-3
(1=not happy, 2=somewhat happy, 3=very happy). Researcher Blue
hypothesizes that pet type will affect level of happiness.

18
 Group Exercise: Discussion
• What is the dependent variable(s) in this
study?
• What is the independent variable(s)?
• What is the level of data?
– Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, Ratio

19
 Parametric VS. Non-parametric
• Parametric tests
– Based on the normal distribution which
have 4 basic assumptions that must be met
for the test
• Normally distributed data
• Homogeneity of variance
• Interval data
• Independence

20
 Parametric VS. Non-parametric
• Non-parametric
– Do not require the assumption of normality
– Do not require an interval or ratio level of
measurement
– Can be used with nominal/ordinal level data
• Data that are not normally distributed
– Use when all assumptions of parametric statistics
cannot be met

21
 Data Collection: How to measure
• Correlational/Cross-sectional research
– The researchers observe what naturally goes on in
the world without directly interfering with it.

Population Sample 22
 Descriptive Statistics Defined
Mean
• Mean
– The sum of all the scores
divided by the total
number of scores.
– Often referred as the
average.
– Good measure of central
tendency
• The location of the middle in
a distribution of scores
– The mean can be
misleading by extreme
scores (very high, or very
low scores)
• Extreme cases or values are
called outliers. 24
 Mean
• Ex. Consider measurements from 30 female
participants, serum levels of cholesterol were
measured, which are given in the Table.

𝑁
1 261 + 160 + ⋯ + 159
𝑥= 𝑥𝑖 =
𝑁 30
1 = 204.9
204.9 25
 The Median
• A median is the middle of a distribution.
– Half the scores are above the median and half are
below the median.
• Computing the median
– Arrange the scores into ascending order
– If there is an odd number of numbers, the median is
the middle number
• Ex: the median of 5, 8, and 11 is 8
– If there is an even number of numbers, the median is
the mean of the two middle numbers.
• Ex: the median of the numbers 4, 8, 9, 13 is (8+9)/2 = 8.5

26
 Median
• Data:
261, 160, 259, 223, 169, 127, 221, 190,224, 228,
229, 294, 204, 177, 199, 212,186, 207, 192, 241,
162, 249, 206, 210,200, 213, 185, 171, 189, 159
• Sort:
127 159 160 162 169 171 177 185 186
189 190 192 199 200 204 206 207 210
212 213 221 223 224 228 229 241 249
259 261 294
• Median = (204+206)/2=205
27
 The Mode
• Mode is the most frequently occurring score
in a distribution/data set.
• Calculating the mode
– Place the data in ascending order, count how
many times each score occurs
– The score that occurs the most is the mode
• Distributions can have more than one mode,
called “multimodal.”

28
Mode

29
 Skewed distributions
• Normal distribution: Not
skewed in any direction.
• Positive skew: The
distribution has a long
tail in the positive
direction, or to the right.
• Negative skew: The
distribution has a long
tail in the negative
direction, or to the left.
30
 Variance
• The variance is a measure of how spread out a
distribution is.
• The variance shows how the observations
‘vary’ from the mean.
• The larger the variance, the further spread out
the data.
𝑋−𝑋 2
𝑛−1
31
 Square deviations
• To calculate variance, the mean of a 𝑋−𝑀 2
group of scores is subtracted from each 𝑛−1
score to give a group of ‘deviations’.
• When we take the average of the
deviation scores, the mean is calculated X = individual score
as the average, and the deviance scores M = mean of all scores
total zero (positive and negative scores n = number of scores
cancel).
• If you first square the deviation scores
and then add them, you can avoid this
problem
• The average of these squared deviation
scores is called the variance.

32
 Variance
𝑋−𝑋 2
𝑛−1
2 2
127 − 204.9 + ⋯ + 294 − 204.9
=
29
= 1247.472

𝑋 = 204.9

33
 Square deviations
Example:
80 mean score
5 scores

Individual scores: 90, 90, 70, 70, 80.

90 − 80 + 90 − 80 + 70 − 80 + 70 − 80 + 80 − 80
= 10 + 10 + −10 + −10 + 0 = 0

NEED TO SQUARE!

2 2 2 2 2
90 − 80 + 90 − 80 + 70 − 80 + 70 − 80 + 80 − 80

100 + 100 + 100 + 100 + 0 400

= = = 100
5−1 4

Variance=100

34
 Standard Deviation
• Variance hard to interpret because when the
values are squared, so are the units.
• To get back to original units, it need to be
taken the square root of the variance.
• This is the standard deviation.

𝑋−𝑀 2
𝑠 =
𝑛−1

35
 Standard Deviation
• Standard deviation is a measure of the spread
or dispersion of a set of data.
– Given in the same units as the indicator.
– Indicates the typical distance between the scores
of a distribution and the mean.
– The higher the standard deviation, the greater the
spread of data.

36
 Standard deviation in Normal
Distribution
• In a normal
distribution, about
68% of scores are
within on standard 0.25 0.25
deviation of the mean.
• 95% of the scores are
within two standard
deviations of the
mean.
37
 Inferential Statistics
• Inference statistics are used to draw inferences
about a population from a sample.
– Population: A group of thing that the researchers
wishes to study.
– Sample: A group of individuals selected from the
population.
– Census: Gathering data from units of a population, no
sampling.
• Generally, inferential statistics require that data
come from a random sample.
– A random sample: each person/object/item of the
population has an equal chance of being chosen. 38
 Hypotheses
• Hypothesis is a prediction about the state of
event/theory/effect.
– Null hypothesis (H0): Statement set to argue that a
relationship or pattern does not exist.
– Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Statement of what study is set
to be present/establish.
• Cholesterol study example: In a Randomized Control
Trial, the control group (A) and the treatment group (B)
have equal levels of cholesterol at the end of a study.
– H0: Groups A and B are equal levels of cholesterol.
– H1: Groups A and B have different levels of cholesterol.

39
 Hypotheses
• The null hypothesis will be true if the findings
are insignificant.
• The null hypothesis will be false (reject) if the
findings are significant.

40
 Alpha (α): Type I error
• Alpha level, or significance level, is the value that is
determined by the researcher in order to reject or
retain the null hypothesis.
– It is a pre-determined value, not calculated.
• Alpha indicates the probability that the null hypothesis
will be rejected when it is true (in other words, the null
hypothesis is wrongly rejected).
– Suggested value is 0.05 or 5% (Fisher, 1925)
– if we replicated our data collection 100 times we could
expect that on five occasions we would obtain a test
statistic large enough to make us think that there was a
genuine effect in the population even though there isn’t.
41
 Alpha (α): Type I error Example
• In a trial of new Drug X, the null hypothesis
might be that the new Drug X is no better than
the current Drug Y.
– H0: there is no difference between Drug X and
Drug Y.
• A Type 1 error would occur if we concluded
that the two drugs produced different effects
when there was no difference between them.

42
 Beta (β): Type II error
• Type 2 error is failing to detect an association when one
exists, or failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is
actually false.
– Keep the null hypothesis when you should not have.
• If Drug X and Drug Y produced different effects, and it was
concluded that they produce the same effects.
• An ideal world, the probability of this error should be very
small.
– If there is an effect in the population then it’s important that we
can detect it.
– Cohen (1992) suggests the maximum acceptable probability of a
Type II error would be 0.20 (20%)
– if we took 100 samples of data from a population in which an
effect exists, we would fail to detect that effect in 20 of those
samples (so we’d miss 1 in 5 genuine effects).
43
 Type I and Type II error
Truth about the population
H0 True H1 True
Decision based on Sample

Reject H0
TYPE I ERROR Correct
Decision
Fail to
Correct TYPE II ERROR
Reject H0 Decision

44
 Hypothesis testing
• Null and alternative hypotheses
– Convert research question into null and alternative hypotheses
– H0 is a claim of “no difference”
– H1 is a claim of “a difference in the population”
• Test statistic
– Calculate a test statistic from the data
• P-value and conclusion
– The P-value answers the question “If the null hypothesis were
true, what is the probability of observing the current data or
data that is more extreme?”
– Small p values provide evidence against the null hypothesis
• Decision (optional)
– If 𝑃 ≤ 𝛼, we will reject the null hypothesis, otherwise it will be
retained for want of evidence.
45
 Testing research questions with
statistical models
• Recall a research process:
– Generate a research question through an initial
observation
– Generate a theory to explain the initial observation
– Generate hypotheses: break theory down into a set of
testable predictions
– Collect data to test the theory: decide on what
variables need to measure to test predictions
– Analyse the data: fit a statistical model to the data –
assess this model to see whether or not it supports
the initial predictions
46
 Statistical Significance
• Fisher (1925) suggested that 95% is a useful
threshold for confidence: only when we are 95%
certain that a result is genuine (i.e. not a chance
finding) should we accept it as being true
• The opposite way can say if there is only a 5%
chance (a probability of .05) of something
occurring by chance then we can accept that it is
a genuine effect
• we say it is a statistically significant finding
• “Significant” in this context means “the observed
difference is not likely due to chance”. It does not
mean of “important” or “meaningful”
47
 Effect size
• Even if a test statistic is significant, it does not
mean that the effect it measures is meaningful or
important.
• An effect size is a measurement of the size of an
effect (be that an experimental manipulation or
the strength of a relationship between variables).
• An effect size is an objective and standardised
measure of the magnitude of observed effect. It
can show the importance of an effect.
48
 Confidence Intervals
• Confidence intervals is a boundary (a range of
values) which we believe that the true value of
the population mean will fall within these limits.
• Typically, the value will set as 95% or 99%
confidence intervals
– If we’d collected 100 samples, calculated the mean
and then calculated a confidence interval for that
mean then 95/99 of these samples, the confidence
intervals we constructed would contain the true value
of the mean in the population.
49
 Statistical Power
• Statistical Power is the ability of a test to
detect an effect that might have existed.
• Power is the probability that a test or study
will detect a statistically significant result.

50
 Power
• Determining power depends on several factors:
– Sample size: how big was a sample?
– Effect size: what size of an effect are you looking for?
E.g. How large of a difference (association,
correlation) are you looking for?
– Standard deviation: how scattered was your data?
• A power of 80% - 95% is desirable.
– we can be confident that we achieved sufficient
power to detect any effects that might have existed.
– One of the best ways to increase the power of your
study is to increase your sample size. 51
 Types of Analyses
• Univariate analysis: the analysis of one
independent variable.
– Mean, Median, Mode, Standard deviation.
– Example: How many women have heart disease in
Thailand?
• Bivariate analysis: the analysis that explore
the association between two variables.
– Pearson’s correlation, t-test, Mann-Whitney test.
– Example: Are height and weight correlated?

52
 Types of Analyses
• Multivariate analysis: the analysis of several
dependent variables (outcomes)
simultaneously.
– Multiple regression, multiple logistic regression.
– Example: Do age, diet, exercise, and diabetes
predict heart disease?

53
 Assumptions
• There are various assumptions for each test.
– Check the assumptions of each test before select a
test.
• Some examples of common assumptions are:
– The dependent variable(s) will need to be measured
on a certain level, e.g. interval level.
– The independent variable(s) will need to be measured
on a certain level, e.g. ordinal level.
– The population is normally distributed (not skewed).
• If your data do not meet the assumptions for a
specific test, you may be able to use a non-
parametric test instead.
54
 Basic Research Design
• The level of variable is a major component that
effect to the decision what statistical test to use.
• Statistical test selection should be based on:
– What is a goal?
• Description/Comparison/Prediction
– What kind of data have been collected?
– Is data normally distributed?
• Use a parametric or non-parametric test.
– What are the assumptions of the statistical test that
will be used?

55
 Example of Statistical Tests
• t-test
• Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
• Correlation

56
 t-test
• Comparison of the mean of two groups.
• Expressed as the standard deviation of the
difference between the means.
• Example: A doctor gives two different drugs to a
group of diabetics to see if blood sugar lowering
times differ, and if the difference between times
are in fact significant
– H0: Drug A and Drug B will have equal blood sugar
lowering times (no difference).
– H1: Drug A and Drug B will have different blood sugar
lowering times (difference).

57
 Steps involved in the t-test
• Calculate the means and standard deviations
of the groups’ outcomes
• Calculate the t-ratio
• Check to see if the calculated t is statistically
significant using a t-table
• It is significant if t is greater than the critical
value of t at the 0.05 level
• If so, the group means are considered
different
58
 The t-score
• The t-score (a.k.a., t-ratio)
– The t-distribution and a t-table are used
– This is because the SD of the population is
estimated from the sample
• P values are found using the calculated
t-score and a t-table
• t-tables consider the number of subjects in
the groups

59
 The t-score(cont.)
• Referred to as degrees of freedom (df)
– Signifies the number of subjects in each group
minus 1
– Minus 2 when there are two groups
• Thus, a study that compares the means of 2
groups that involve 30 subjects has 28 df

60
 The t-table
• t-distributions eventually become nearly
normal when many subjects are included
– As a result, t-tables usually only go to 100 df
• Alpha levels are shown for
– When α is all in one tail (α1 or one-tailed test )
– When α is spit between the tails (α2 or two-tailed
test)

61
t-table showing critical values for t.
(only to 15 df)
a1 0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.001 0.0005
df a2 0.20 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.002 0.001
1 3.078 6.314 12.71 31.82 63.66 318.30 636.62
2 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 22.330 31.60
3 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841 10.210 12.92
4 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604 7.173 8.610
5 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032 5.893 6.869
6 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707 5.208 5.959
7 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499 4.785 5.408
8 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355for 10 4.501
Critical value df 5.041
9 1.383 1.833 2.262 2.821
and α2 = 3.250
0.05 4.297 4.781
10 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169 4.144 4.587
11 1.363 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106 4.025 4.437
12 1.356 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055 3.930 4.318
13 1.350 1.771 2.160 2.650 3.012 3.852 4.221
14 1.345 1.761 2.145 2.624 2.977 3.787 4.140
15 1.341 1.753 2.131 2.602 2.947 3.733 4.073
…
Etc. To 100
Evidence-based Chiropractic 62
 Remember

Big t-value

Small P value

Statistical significance

63
 ANOVA
• Allows the comparison of 3 or more groups.
• ANOVA tells us whether three or more means
are the same.
• ANOVA is an omnibus test. It tests for an
overall experimental effect. It does not
provide specific information about with
groups were affected.
• Example: Are psychotherapy, family therapy
and behaviour therapy equally effective in
treating alcoholism?
64
 Correlation

• Allows an examination of the relationship between

variables (Covariance).
• If we standardise covariance value, we get Pearson’s
correlation coefficient, r.
• The correlation coefficient has to lie between -1 and
+1.
– A correlation coefficient of 0 indicates there is no
relationship between the variables (one variable changes,
the other stays the same).
– A correlation coefficient of -1 indicates a prefect negative
relationship (one variable increases, the other decreases
by a proportionate amount).
– A correlation coefficient of +1 indicates a perfect positive
relationship (one variables increases, the other increases
by a proportionate amount). 65
 Research Examples
• Scenario: Study relationship between
arachnophobia (fear of spider) and spider.
• Research Question: Is arachnophobia (fear of
spiders) specific to real spiders or is a picture
enough?
• Hypothesis
– H0: anxiety level when exposes with real spider =
anxiety level when exposes with a picture of the
same spider.
66
 Research Examples (cont)
• Participants
– 12 spider phobia individuals
• Manipulation
– Each participant was exposed to a real spider and
a picture of the same spider at two points in time.
• Outcome
– Anxiety level: heart beat

67
 Collected data
Participant Picture of Real spider
spider
P1 30 40
P2 35 35
P3 45 50
P4 40 55
P5 50 65
P6 35 55
P7 55 50
P8 25 35
P9 30 30
P10 45 50
P11 40 60
P12 50 39
68
What kind of test should be used?
• Independent (Between subjects)
• Dependent (Within subjects/Paired-sample)
– repeated measure

69
 Variables
• The purpose of this experiment
– determine the differences in anxiety level between
real spiders and pictures of spiders.
• Twelve subjects were shown a picture of a spider
and a real spider.
– After viewing the picture or spider their anxiety level
was measured.
– The order of treatment was counterbalanced (6
shown picture first, 6 shown real spider first).
• In the research question, we did not specify
which type of spider should cause more anxiety
level. Therefore, the test should be “2-tailed”
70
Independent or Dependent variables?
• Dependent variable
– Anxiety level (i.e. Anx_level)
• Independent variable
– An exposure of spider
• Note: the independent variable (an exposure of
spider) causes changes in the dependent variable
(anxiety level).

71
 Analysis?
• t-test
• ANOVA
• Correlation

72
Output

73
 Output

t(11) = -2.473, p =.031 (p is an exact probability)

p < .05
there is a significant difference between the means
74
 Report the results (conclusion)
• On average, participants experienced
significantly greater anxiety to real spiders (M
= 47.00, SE = 3.18) than to pictures of spiders
(M = 40.00, SE = 2.68), t(11) = −2.47, p < .05

t(11) = −2.47, p < .05

75
Research begin when
there is a question
 References
• Fraser Health, “Introduction to statistics and Quantitative
Research Method”,
http://research.fraserhealth.ca/media/Introduction-to-
Statistics-and-Quantitative-Research-Methods.pdf [online;
accessed September 2014]
• Parina Patel, “Introduction to Quantitative Methods”,
http://www.law.harvard.edu/library/research/empirical/qu
antitative_methods.pdf, 2009 [online; accessed September
2014]
• Michael T. Haneline, Inferential statistics, 2008,
http://w3.palmer.edu/michael.haneline/4_EBC_PP_Chap4b
.ppt.
• Andy Field, “Discovering statistics using SPSS”, SAGE
Publications Ltd, 3rd edition, 2009. ISBN 9781847879066.
77