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oo
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linear Regrusion (£40) ?— when for
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cei the obove line eq” ix Sumchon thot
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for giver value o} x we ean find Losreappond ing Value of.
sho if we itae reqreui eS ye mxt co
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n chart: |
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linear Reloh'on High
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dheough both potnt (8:32 WE) (0-g)~
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fabled tt —12- sana 9c tr. regulnja.cbtemIhe Pitdqe teqiuiiva we have seem ——————___
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liom« volue tor Bac of tn puf feature bel tn
ote LE yuu conkncusly Increane value of A_al cesta'n
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fend nets in bins 1) etn
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ee
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i -Voriance Trodeott P
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L t | thee tc frodvoft behaeen model's obilihy do
minimize bia, and Vorionce Which j, re] uel fy
@) bes) snlubon for sclechin.
Conlon
42 vo) us of regulenzeken
Seed dh pe 4 LT ng, ae “wales
o eleven uhile chaining
tithing let amt model ond correc! volues . Qet Tene
ry wt lf wait ee eva [a gy a Wal a,
eg ela cctodl Cth lice drieral
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Jimple (hypothat with Lincor eo") the a
teary be on high bias ond low voniance ond thus: ro
i Lerroe prrone - -
eal tf eccov Ft foo worp lx ( heppothee wth high degree
Lequekion }. then th Daath he on high Vanenc: anf [od
TT F 3
atthe loHe cndsh' obe. a
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hredeoff- eet 7 - E
y
f=
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r ae 4
il rmconicl hau. ford! on eshmofed volue bomibye b
Vv
jf we are treinike on differert models +R, 07,86
dp bnew which Paealtl perform betten and whivy
ofombeus- ore beter Jou funchion py useful»
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Clash Nelda 0 pyle br-) 1%. phis Cambinakon of. S
both regulon ch'or bechnigne. a
4
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n |
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Nch'an ne Gar oO a & dae
alee Lasso.
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ier
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ra
lon wef
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ir
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Simple Exponh'of 2- dirk opp Pinkie eleernte hime
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Doublfrpenbral >i} icvaly perforencel gos fm
Jeolane
dl
Yol4 wreke'r model - (triple éxporh'al ) a 1S pecormed q
i
well wheethac is both bead ax wellar searone): by
when you don} (now whither bmi series hovi rea
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temp at beds abd sigs #1 toy, i
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bal will be the cai uso oo pacclack ye pen mero?
ctubihg Avg tbh that sbvele |. Ke —
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{ cee gee fuonpla average a
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Day 1 2 8, £ & ££
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Sale leaps clio Leary
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ft Ly be La Loe o e
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When we cam vhol rhourd be ‘ hy perp avamel
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cs Y Louk possible local Avy 2 \ a
; ih all future _preduchoin
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a L changed frend Paes
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How to select Berk posihl: model. AR1, AR eg
SPA etn bard on tub dota getura hich ewer wil
firm geod wil! final: tral .
2 Moving Average Hece tng eae eh ee
By —Taki of Jere procuch'an, which elepiods upon
Jeatang (grain or Fut) dicts nofucaf
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oti 9) Nut. ‘a ameanyes ee
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L Mes dee tebe, | MRO)
| ne
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NAR
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frame (4 R+ ft)
fl ale vi h mer _itsel
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|
pay a
Q—> future predichon ore complile y deprnd on par:
clalablli iene pus wopy o} regres ton rnocel . a
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variobl. predichin
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post dota ae ae
yes Mite ta, 4e-2 thaYe-2 + Pt &
4 I LIN
aol Hells Yay here
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lox fo sRwast | ARIMA
Rips! srt if
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pt sa port
Wp —% Meving Ave taf « hee future prediction
; |
La 2 “i re
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et iz | 7 |
or due i slo +
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am a0 Miidala tr ool 4 depcading on aul isp
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RUSTE Nek tein lab Pee aee Pte.
th exactly similor do Be model only difference ts
lead of preview dola hue exfenol forctors or
int
Jntuafed: —-
ARMA (1 1) .
aR Cy) a
BeMn ths) 2 Ae (ie) t macy) =
yp Yen +O, fey + Bo + =
TE Bpee-1 29 the ib will he AR (1)
= Kity a t py lenp + O. + et - aDate: /
we tanec ele -o| fr there three mode,
1s _stohenary we qonna din
a
made} sepclol:
MA
{ou Med obra =e ne Bae
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ce 0/0 Ic nol powible par wehore 86-1 230
ARIMA doun'{ care about Be er
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a 0. al MoVvIN@ avec [oe
0 EF voc dola from onginal dota follows ARmA
Hhen origina) dela will mush follod Ri mf.
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+ il
Zn alee?6c ex. ar
Rank pelance of Even month ee
pyr abe Magi A ANG) 7 ia Ne te (des)
eee FY —
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ed th wecghlr (sf will
mn © Wwdi fiat
Ta oi cals reloh'ons ship peed
q)_Sensehive to ow lien
4) Needs to lorge lelesern
Moth Behind (oqubic Regression
DS -4 -3 ° 3
By ° ° | ! \
Assume ° zz Sx + lo Ny eae Al
\uctiehaan a
ee pase 1 = 0, ee Se 29) i
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ad Rea edvaltiewe st
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fs velue t's Henge Positive Riches
— 4
ee Fos
nge_negohve numhey
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f
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Rea poe sa ierak
we
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a f e]
dunchon We will ack mony caf minima
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ers 9 > 1 S$ ee —>
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ory Cross erro p oss furch'on (6% ~) eee EB
ei oT a \
eef]s=(ngL ee vy) —-
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a = log
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