Probability Theory

Random Experiment

With random experiments, the results cannot be predicted, since they

depend on chance.

Outcome

An outcome is each of the possible results of a random experiment.

Obtaining heads when flipping a coin.

Obtaining a 4 when rolling a die.

Sample Space

The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.
It is denoted by S (or by the Greek letter Ω).

Sample space of a coin:

Sample space of a die:

Event

An event is any subset of the sample space.

For example, when rolling a die, an event would be the outcome of an even
number, or another, obtaining a multiple of 3.

Example

A bag contains blue and red balls. Three balls are drawn successively.
Calculate:

1. The sample space.

2. The event A = (draw three balls of the same color).

3. The event B = (extract at least one blue ball).

4. The event C = {extract only one red}.

Elementary Event

An elementary event is one of the elements that make up the sample space.

For example, if a die is thrown, an elementary event would be a 5.

Compound Event

A compound event is any subset of the sample space.

For example, if a die is thrown, a compound event would be an even number,

another, a multiple of 3.

Sure Event

The sure event, , is formed by all possible results (that is to say, the sample
space).

For example, rolling a die and obtaining a score of less than 7.

Impossible Event

The impossible event, , does not have an element.

For example, rolling a die and obtaining a score of 7.

Disjoint Events or Mutually Exclusive

Two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive when they don´t have an
element in common.

If outcome A is to obtain an even number from a die and B is to obtain a

multiple of 5, A and B are mutually exclusive events.

Independent Events

Two events, A and B are independent if the probability of the succeeding

event is not affected by the outcome of the preceeding event.

By rolling a die twice, the results are independent.

Dependent Events

Two events, A and B are dependent if the probability of the succeeding event
is affected by the outcome of the preceeding event.

For example, two dependent events would be drawing two cards from a deck
(one at a time) without redepositing them.

Complementary Event

The complementary event of is another event that is realized when is not

realized. It is denoted by ̅ or

For example, the complementary event of obtaining an even number when

rolling a dice is obtaining an odd number.

Probability Axioms

1.The probability is positive and less than or equal to 1.

2. The probability of the sure event is 1.

3.If A and B are mutually exclusive, then:

Probability Properties

1. The sum of the probabilities of an event and its complementary is 1, so the

probability of the complementary event is:

2. The probability of an impossible event is zero.

3. The probability of the union of two events is the sum of their probabilities
minus the probability of their intersection.

4. If an event is a subset of another event, its probability is less than or equal

to it.

5. If A1, A2, ..., Ak are mutually exclusive between them, then:

Probability Formula

If a random experiment is conducted in which there are n elementary events,

all equally likely, and A is an event, the probability of event A is:

Examples

Find the probability of tossing two coins simultaneously and obtaining two
heads.

Possible outcomes:

Favorable outcomes

In a deck of 40 cards, if one card is removed, find the probability of an Ace

( ) being drawn and the probability of a Diamond ( ) being
drawn.
Possible outcomes

Favorable outcomes of aces:

Favorable outcomes of diamonds: 10.

Multiplication Rule

Independent Events

Example

A deck has 40 cards, one card is drawn and placed back in the deck and the
second is then drawn. What is the probability of getting two aces?

Dependent Events

Example

A deck has 40 cards, two cards are drawn simultaneously. What is the
probability of getting two aces?
Conditional Probability

If A and B are two events of the same sample, S, then:

The conditional probability of event A on B, , is the probability of event

A when the event of B has already occurred.

Example

Calculate the probability of a 6 being rolled by a die if it is already known that

the result is even.

Questions

1) What is the probability that when throwing a die twice then on the first throw
we get an even number and on the second 3 or 4?

a) 1/18
b) 1/6
c) 1/9
d) 1/36
e) 1/12

2) In a pot there are 5 balls, all are red and none are white. What is the
probability of extracting a yellow ball on the first try?

a) It cannot be calculated
b) 25%
c) 20%
d) 100%
e) 0%
3) What is the probability of extracting a red J, Q or K card from a poker deck?

a) 1/15
b) 2/25
c) 3/26
d) 1/10
e) 2/27

4) What is the probability, when tossing a coin, that it will land on tails two
times running?

a) 1/8
b) 1/4
c) 1/2
d) 3/4
e) 3/8

5) A pot contains 10 balls, 4 of which are red and 6 of which are black. Of the
10 balls 3 are extracted randomly. What is the probability of extracting 3 red
balls without putting them back into the pot?

a) 1/30
b) 1/60
c) 2/30
d) 2/40
e) 1/10

6) A test consists of 10 questions, each of which has 4 answers, of which only

one is correct. Calculate the probability of guessing all ten answers
(answering randomly):

a)

b) ( )
c)
d)

e) ( )
7) In a Neapolitan deck of cards (40 cards, 4 suits) what is the probability of
extracting two kings without putting the cards back in the deck?

a) 1/4
b) 1/12
c) 3/130
d) 1/130
e) 2/130

8) Three cards are extracted from a 40 cards deck (10 hearts, 10 diamonds,
10 clubs, 10 spades); what is the probability of extracting three of the 12 face
cards, supposing we don't put back the card extracted from the deck?

a) 9/10
b) 33/1600
c) 36/1235
d) 11/494
e) 33/494

9) What is the probability of getting an even number the first time a die is
thrown and a 2 the second time it is thrown?

a) 1/12
b) 2/36
c) 0.25
d) 2/3
e)

10) Two unbiased coins are tossed and an unbiased die ( with faces
numbered 1 to 6 ) is rolled.

What is the probability that this results in two heads and a number less than
5?

a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
11) In a particular game, the player whose turn it is rolls two standard fair
dice, with faces numbered 1 to 6, and can choose the result from either die or
the sum of the two results as the score for that turn.

It is Luigi’s turn to play and he needs to score exactly 5 to win the game.

What is the probability that Luigi can win the game at this turn?

a)
b)
c)
d)
e)

12) A bag contains 8 blue and 2 red balls. Three balls are chosen at the same
time at random from the bag.
What is the probability that exactly two of the balls are the same colour?

a)
b)
c)
d)
e)

13) David has two boxes containing shapes.

In box A there are 4 stars and 2 hearts.
In box B there are 2 stars and 1 heart.
David takes, at random, a shape from box A and puts it into box B.
He then takes a shape from box B.
What is the probability that this shape is a star?

a) 4/3
b) 4/9
c) 1/12
d) 3/4
e) 2/3
14) I have two six-sided dice, each with faces numbered from 1 to 6. One of
the dice is fair, but the other is not – it will land on numbers 1 to 5 with equal
probability, but lands on 6 with a different probability.

When I roll the dice the probability that I get a total of 12 is .

What is the probability that I get a total of 2 when I roll the dice?

a)
b)
c)
d)
e)

15) A box has 6 red hats and 5 green hats. What is the probability of drawing
at least one green hat in two consecutive drawings if the hat is not replaced?

a) 10/11
b) 8/11
c) 7/12
d) 5/13
e) 2/7

16) A jar contains B blue balls, 6B+10 yellow balls and 2B+5 green balls. If
there are only blue, yellow and green balls in the jar, what is the probability of
taking out a blue or green ball?

a)
b)
c)
d)
e)