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5 UtilityBasedSystems

The document discusses uncertainty and artificial intelligence. It covers Bayesian belief networks and decision theory, which combines probability and utility theory. The principle of maximum expected utility states that a rational agent should choose the action with the highest expected utility averaged over all outcomes.

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Ashutosh Pathak
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20 views

5 UtilityBasedSystems

The document discusses uncertainty and artificial intelligence. It covers Bayesian belief networks and decision theory, which combines probability and utility theory. The principle of maximum expected utility states that a rational agent should choose the action with the highest expected utility averaged over all outcomes.

Uploaded by

Ashutosh Pathak
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI)

UNCERTAINTY &
ARTIFICIAL LOGICAL
INTELLIGENCE
REASONING
(AI)
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI)
UTILITY BASED SYSTEM
Ananya Singh 20BCE1834

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI)


REVISION
What is Uncertainty?

Bayes Theorem

P(A ∧ B) = P(B|A), P(A)


P(B)

P(cause|effect) = P(effect|cause), P(cause)


P(effect)

Bayesian Belief Network

It is a probabilistic graphical model which represents a set of variables


and their conditional dependencies using a directed acyclic graph.
RATIONAL DECISIONS
A rational decision must consider:

● The relative importance of the sub-goals - Utility theory


● The degree of belief that the sub-goals will be achieved - Probability theory

Decision theory = probability theory


+ utility theory
the agent is rational if and only if it chooses the action that yields the highest
expected utility, averaged over all possible outcomes of the action
Combining Beliefs & Desires
● Agent’s preferences between world states are captured by a
Utility Function U(S)

● It assign a single number to express the desirability of a state.

● Utilities are combined with outcome probabilities of actions to give an expected


utility for each action

● A nondeterministic action A will have possible outcome states Resulti(A)


where the index i ranges over the different outcomes.

● Prior to the execution of A, the agent assigns probability P (Resulti(A) | Do (A), E)


to each outcome, where E summarizes the agent’s available evidence about the
world and Do (A) is the proposition that action A is executed in the current state.
EXPECTED UTILITY
The expected utility of A is

The principle of maximum expected utility (MEU) says that a rational agent should
choose an action

Random variable X with values x1….,xn and distribution (p1,...,pn)

Function U of X: U is the utility of a state


The expected utility of A is:
MEU PRINCIPLE
A rational agent should choose the action that maximizes agent’s expected utility

This is the basis of the field of decision theory

The MEU principle provides a normative criterion for rational choice of action

Example:
You need to find out whether you need to carry an umbrella?
Given that, If it rains and you have no umbrella, your utility is 0 units, while it is 15 units
if you have an umbrella. If it does not rain and you have no umbrella, your utility is 18
units, while it is 15 units if you do have an umbrella. The chances of rain on any day is
50%.
ARTI
CIAL
NON DETERMINISTIC probabilistic INTE
DECISION THAT IS BEST FOR
WORST CASE
DECISION THAT MAXIMISES
EXPECTED UTILITY VALUE
IGEN
/(AI)
04.
MANAGEMENT PLAN
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/(AI)
04.
MANAGEMENT PLAN
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/(AI)
04.
MANAGEMENT PLAN
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uncertainty and risk

RISK AVERSION RISK NEUTRAL RISK LOVING

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