Why UNSC Reform is Elusive

Maleeha Lodhi
THE world has seen sweeping geopolitical changes It isn’t as if efforts for reform haven’t been undertaken.
over the past 70 years. The international landscape has Since 2009 talks have been going on to reform the
been fundamentally transformed by the dispersion of Security Council in informal sessions of the General
power more widely among states. This redistribution of Assembly. The GA which created the
global power is a dynamic process and continues intergovernmental negotiations process set the goal of
apace, accelerated by economic and technological comprehensive Council reform involving five equally
developments of the 21st century. The shift in economic important and interlinked issues. These are: categories
power from the West to the rest is one of the defining of membership, veto, regional representation, size and
features of the contemporary world. Multipolarity is an working methods of an expanded Council, and the
increasing reality. So too is the fact that in a diverse, relationship between the Security Council and General
complex and interconnected world even the most Assembly.
powerful countries cannot achieve outcomes on their
There is general agreement among countries on
own and need the help of allies.
reform and increasing the Council size, with more
The institutional architecture of the international representation for developing states, especially Africa.
system, however, remains the product of a specific But beyond agreement to make the Council more
historical era. International institutions — the Bretton representative by additional non-permanent members
Woods twins, and improving
IMF and World its working
Bank, and the methods,
United consensus on
Nations — other issues
created in has been
1944-1945, elusive. The
reflect the question of
realities of veto
that time. The continues to
structure and be a source of
composition intense
of the UN’s contention
premier while
organ, the convergence
Security on other
Council, issues has
reflect the historical arrangement reached 78 years emerged over the years. Dialogue has never broken
ago by the victors of World War II. They became the five down but fundamental differences persist, which
permanent members of the Council that has 10 non- continue to hold up reform.
permanent elected members. Possession of the veto
The principal disagreement, mainly responsible for
power further buttressed the P5’s position and created
slow progress in decades-long negotiations, is
an inequality that persists to date. Thus the UN body
between countries that aspire for permanent seats for
charged with primary responsibility for the
themselves and others who oppose this and, instead,
maintenance of international peace and security and
propose enlarging the Council by adding more elected,
whose decisions are supposed to be binding remains
non-permanent members. This has put the so-called
anchored in the past.
G4 — Germany, Japan, India and Brazil — at odds with
Calls for reform of the 15-member Council have been the Uniting for Consensus (UFC) countries led by Italy
heard over the decades from countries across the and including Pakistan, Argentina, Mexico, Republic of
world. Most recently, UN Secretary General António Korea, Canada and other like-minded states. G4
Guterres again added his voice to these calls. Speaking countries support more permanent members as well
at a press conference last week in Japan, on the as additional non-permanent seats, while asserting
sidelines of the Group of Seven summit, he said it was their claim to permanent membership ostensibly on
time to reform both the Security Council and Bretton grounds of their economic strength, political standing
Woods institutions to align them with the “realities of and contributions to the UN. They back each other for
today’s world”. These institutions, he added, reflect the Council membership and have also secured support
power relations of 1945 and needed to be updated. from some P5 countries. For example, the US and UK
support Japan, Germany, Brazil and India for
permanent membership. The common African position
is support for expansion in both permanent and non-
permanent categories. This is predicated on the view
that the continent’s under-representation is an act of
historical injustice, which should be addressed.
The UFC group, in which Pakistan has always played an
active role, calls for comprehensive reform and seeks
a Council that is more representative, accountable,
democratic and effective by adding elected members
who can counter-balance the power of the veto-
wielding P5 countries. The UFC argues that the
Council’s frequent deadlock and paralysis is due to
discord and the clashing interests of the P5, which
prevents it from playing the role expected of it and
enjoined by the Charter. Adding more permanent
members with veto powers will only compound this
dysfunction, not end it.
Pakistan voices the position of other UFC countries by
arguing that reform should not reinforce inequality and
preserve privilege for a few, but give all member
states, big, medium and small, a chance to serve on the
Council by rotating elected seats. This would make the
body more representative of the membership.
Moreover, in the democratic era, reform should be in
sync with the spirit of the age. The principle of election
is the bedrock of democracy. That should also apply to
Council reform. More elected members will make it
more democratic and accountable to the general
membership.
The G4 and UFC don’t just have divergent perspectives.
They have conflicting visions about the nature and
future of the UN. One vision seeks to accord privileged
status to a handful of countries on the basis of
permanence’. The other wants to see the organisation
embody the principles of democracy and
representativeness and offer opportunities to all states
to become Council members.
Against this backdrop, the prospects for reform depend
on how these and other differences are reconciled,
which is by no means easy. Even if this can somehow
be achieved, the process of reform will have other
challenges to surmount. Reform requires the UN
Charter to be amended. This involves the General
Assembly adopting a resolution on reform by a two-
thirds majority. And then, the amendment based on the
resolution, has to be ratified by at least two-thirds of
the UN membership as well as the five permanent
members. All this makes reform a distant possibility
even though a major push for it is anticipated at next
year’s Summit of the Future.
© THE DAWN
 From Pax American to
Asianization: A Multipolar World
Maria Mansab

Multipolarity geopolitical tendencies in the Middle East, the Saudi-

Iran reconciliation, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the
Yevgeny Primakovis is usually associated with the creation of a new Asian bloc signifies the end of
concept of multipolarity in Russia. Indeed, the former unipolarity.
Russian Federation Minister of Foreign Affairs
identified the move to a multipolar world as a Despite US military dominance, the advent of new
fundamental trend in contemporary international life as major powers such as China, along with US financial
early as 1996. Primakov proposed a trilateral and monetary limits, implies that the United States’
cooperation plan between Russia, China, and India military superiority will be challenged during the next
(RIC) as a practical instrument for strengthening global decade or two. The loss of American power entails the
multipolarity during his visit to New Delhi as Prime culmination of US supremacy in world affairs and the
Minister in late 1998. shift to a new world power constellation. The Pax
Americana will perish in the early twenty-first century
Sergey Lavrov has also emphasized Primakov’s unless it is supported by ”hard” power (military and
exceptional contribution to the development of the economic).
concept of a multipolar world. Western international
relations experts are unlikely to agree that Russian The Declinist and the American Decline
academics and politicians should be prioritized. They Debate
generally date the birth of the idea of multipolarity to
the mid-1970s. America has long felt an impending decline, but this
isn’t the first
Chinese time. The Rise
historians, for and Fall of the
their part, can Great Powers
claim their by Paul
version of Kennedy
multipolarity sparked an
which arose in intense but
the early 1990s fleeting debate
and can be in the 1980s
traced back to about whether
Mao Zedong’s America’s
theoretical dominance was
works. The in relative
world was decline.
projected to
evolve from Kennedy was
unipolar to multipolar via a “hybrid” global political not alone in saying that the United States was
framework that contains characteristics of both the witnessing a comparative decrease in economic
previous and future world systems, according to China. dominance. Chace, Calleo, Gilpin, and Huntington were
among the other renowned scholars who made this
Regardless of how we define the origins of case. They pointed to internal and economic factors at
multipolarity as a concept and who we credit as its work that, over time, would cause American economic
forefather, the concept is certainly a 20th-century dominance to fall relative to other countries and
intellectual product. It would appear that in the decades generate a modification in the international circulation
since it was proposed, multipolarity should have of influence.
progressed from a hypothesis to a full-fledged theory
Those same economic decline drivers identified by the
Unipolar Departure and Multipolarity: declinists in the 1980s appear prescient when read
America’s Gradual Decline today because they remain at the center of the debate:
chronic deficits in federal budgets and rising national
Pax Americana was built by the United States in the debt; excessive consumption and insufficient savings;
postwar era by exploiting its hegemonic position. The and deindustrialization.
defeat of unipolarity by rising powers is inextricably
linked to America’s relative fall: new major powers, Civilizational Analysis and The Multipolar
particularly China, are the most visible proof of the World Order
United States’ decline. The growth of China’s emerging
Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations theory claims that in The Ukraine situation has presented the US with a
a post-Cold War age, cultural and theological complex brew of issues. China remains the United
differences would be the prime cause of conflict. States’ major adversary, and few expect Beijing to curb
Multipolarity and the Clash of Civilizations idea are its goals significantly even if Russia emerges from this
related in that a multipolar world may enhance the risk crisis weaker.
of confrontations between different civilizations.
Internal Factors of American Waning: Debt,
As multiple governments or entities compete for power
and influence in a multipolar system, they may identify
Deficits, and America’s Indeterminate
with different cultural or religious groups, escalating Future
existing cultural and religious tensions and increasing United States’ rising economic and budgetary
the likelihood of violence. problems, two facets of the United States’ national
It is crucial to stress, however, that not all wars in a problems deserve specific attention: the country’s
multipolar world would be motivated by cultural or spiraling general debt and growing uncertainties about
religious differences. A range of factors, including the dollar’s forthcoming status as the global cost-
economic, political, and strategic concerns, will cutting reserve money. The US will likely be forced to
influence the connections between different make strategic cuts and start winding down its global
governments and actors. military commitments between now and 2025 as a
result of the impending debt and dollar crises.
Even though “an emerging Sino-American bipolarity is
increasingly structuring the world system,” the world The sources of the impending US economic catastrophe
structure is more complex politically. The EU, which are multifaceted. An excellent beginning point for
“carries a strong economic weight but is a political pole comprehension is the idea of Arnold Wolfers, a late
in the making,” is struggling “to close the gap between political scientist, who argued that contemporary major
economic power and geopolitical influence.” Conflicts powers must be both welfare and national security
between the Western and Islamic worlds, such as the states. States must deliver both firearms (the armed
ongoing struggle in the Middle East between the United competencies required to protect and advance their
States and various Islamic terrorist groups. China and outside comforts) and butter (affluence and the
the West, particularly the United States, have clashed provision of critical public goods such as education,
on topics such as trade, technology, and human rights. health care, and pensions).

According to Parag Khana’s “The Future is Asian,” in the The significance of the dollar as a standby currency is
nineteenth century, the world became Europeanized; it perilous to America’s geopolitical supremacy. If the
was Americanized in the 20th century; and Asianization dollar drops its reserve currency status, US dominance
is on the rise in the twenty-first century. Before will become unreasonable. With defense spending in
European colonialism and American hegemony, Asia the United States at an all-time high, domestic political
was swiftly returning to centuries-old patterns of pressure to drastically slash defense spending is
commerce, military, and cultural interaction. already at an all-time high.

Asians will control their destiny, and as they push their Defense cuts will force the United States to reduce its
group interests globally, they will also influence ours. overseas military commitments during the next ten to
The current state of world politics revolves around fifteen years. This will have two effects. First, as the US
Asia’s geostrategic, geopolitical, and geoeconomic cuts defense spending, China (and other emerging
relevance. superpowers) will be able to narrow the US military
advantage. Additionally, the US’s capability to function
Russia-Ukraine War and the Future World as a regional stabilizer and defender of the worldwide
Orde commons would deteriorate. In this regard, America’s
economic problems and the indefinite future of the
We are in uncharted territory, with the West swiftly
dollar are significant causes of American decay.
implementing enormous sanctions on Russia and the
real risk of nuclear war. The scenarios above depict the The External Factors of American Decline:
numerous ways geopolitics could depend on how the The Rise of New Great Powers
war in Ukraine develops. However, compared to before
hostilities began, the geopolitical chess pieces are The world is entering a time of “vertical globalization,”
already situated differently on the board. in which novel geopolitical coalitions are growing all
over the world. As the world fragments into different
The EU is currently debating whether and how quickly
clusters, these new unions — both official (i.e.,
it should reduce its existing reliance on Russian
associations) and casual (i.e., trade corridors)—have
resources, particularly oil and gas. Today, defense
the potential to change everything from supply chains
spending and defense investment among the thirty
to sustainability.
allies are likely to increase against Russia, even though
the US is still experiencing an economic slowdown at As countries throughout the world prepare to switch to
home. rechargeable automobiles, a new geopolitical bloc in
Latin America is growing that might “call the shots” for
everyone from China to Tesla. Mexico, which earlier
this year nationalized its lithium business, is light of US sanctions against Russia, China just reached
considering a new “lithium alliance,” that would unite an agreement with Iraq, and other countries are
the nation with Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, and the four considering similar options.
nations that control the majority of the world’s lithium
However, as the accord progresses, the dependence on
as they work to control the production and trading of a
US military hardware will diminish. Both countries
resource that is swiftly turning into one of the most
have also applied to join the BRICS organization and
crucial commodities in the entire globe.
promote local currency transactions. Importantly, this
To create non-Chinese microchip supply chains and will be a Eurasia-integrated Saudi Arabia, so both of
impede Beijing’s technological advancement, the US these developments will occur concurrently, hastening
has proposed “Chip 4,” a semiconductor alliance with the decline of the US dollar.
Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The cooperation is
As military purchases are made in dollars, this action
being promoted as Semiconductor Manufacturing
immediately aids in the de-dollarization of defense. De-
International Corporation, China’s largest chipmaker,
dollarization will limit Middle Eastern countries’
defies US sanctions by announcing a cutting-edge
assertiveness in the global economy and their reliance
bitcoin mining chip, and while new extremist ideologies
on the United States. China’s role in mediating a
appear in Chinese society, such as taxing cellphones
reconciliation between these two longstanding Middle
sold in the nation 400% more if they have foreign chips
Eastern foes has important geopolitical and symbolic
rather than Chinese chips.
implications.
As part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has
Beijing must keep the region’s oil flowing freely from a
been building the “Northern Corridor” in Central Asia, a
strategic standpoint, and the symbolic component is
route that connects Asia and Europe via Russia and
vital. The motivation is the goal of establishing an
Belarus, while Kazakhstan wants to restructure the
alternative to the US-led global order, which China
flow of physical and digital trade across Eurasia.
views as a more multilateral approach to international
However, Kazakhstan has suggested a different
security. With the United States’ influence in the Middle
“Middle Corridor” as part of the BRI that would connect
East and around the world dwindling, states will
Asia and Europe via Turkey because the conflict in
increasingly seek peace treaties and dialogues with
Ukraine has made this route unstable.
China and Russia.
Of course, this creates a new dilemma for the United
States, which wants Europe to break away from Russia Conclusion
but could end up driving more European companies Through all of these evolving new alliances, the globe
into China’s grasp. Africa is becoming more well- is rapidly shifting away from a “one group for all”
known while everyone is focused on the West or Asia. approach. The old epoch of globalization is coming to
The third Africa Integration Day, which focused on an end, and the new-fangled groupings and corridors
African integration and de-globalization, was recently that are forming will only further fracture the world,
held by the African Union (AU). causing major surprises for governments and
The United States’ withdrawal from the Middle East has corporations alike.
forced Arab states to seek new partnerships to For one thing, many of the innovative exclusive
decrease their vulnerabilities in a tumultuous globe. coalitions formed by the United States no longer
The government also expects that the latest peace include America’s old friends, such as Canada, France,
treaty will persuade the current US administration to or Germany. Rather, alongside the United Kingdom, the
relaunch the nuclear deal as soon as possible. The United States is doubling down on the Indo-Pacific,
alliance of two major regional powers, one of which is posing a conundrum for its old allies in Europe and the
a bitter adversary, undermines and threatens Israel’s Middle East.
security and existence.
For decades, the international economy has been
The Palestinian issue is experiencing a tremendous uncluttered and reachable, but a new rearrangement is
comeback at the moment, and this will have a occurring, dividing the world along new fault lines.
significant impact on Arab society as well as the Many of these fault lines are conceptual, which
mentalities of Arab leaders. For years, a proxy war has represents a significant reversal from previous
raged in various Middle Eastern countries between the decades when ideology looked to be vanishing.
two major Shia and Sunni Muslim forces. The Saudi-
Correspondingly important, it is apparent that the
Iran agreement paves the stage for the de-escalation
choices made by these new alliances will be felt not
of the proxy war.
only by countries or corporations but also by regular
De-Dollarization: Peace Deal a Setback to people. Shortly, various blocs will vie for global control,
US and Win-Win Situation for China and these blocs will have to cohabit while finding
imaginative methods to attract countries and industries
The Iran-Saudi agreement may pave the way for the into their camp.
expanded use of the yuan, with oil transactions handled
© PARADIGM SHIFT
in yuan rather than the US dollar, which has long been
the standard currency used in energy transactions. In
 Democratising SDGs
Aisha Khan
GEOPOLITICS and structural imbalances are adding to and making information on SDG implementation
the global mix of crises, necessitating urgency in action publicly available, as well as setting up mechanisms for
to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. The SDGs, community feedback and oversight. Encouraging
adopted in 2015, are a set of 17 goals that provide a partnerships between governments, NGOs, and
blueprint for achieving equality, reducing poverty and communities to help ensure that the SDGs are
seeking universal human rights for all by 2030. All the implemented in a way that is both effective and
191 UN member states have agreed to try and achieve sustainable. By working together, these groups can
the 169 targets by 2030. While the self-consciously identify and address challenges in a collaborative way.
ambitious SDGs have achieved some success, there is Fostering innovation and new technologies and
a high risk that most of the goals designed for people, approaches to democratise and localise the SDGs.
prosperity, planet, peace and partnerships will remain Mobile technology can be used to gather data on local
unmet. The $2.5 trillion annual SDG investment gap will needs and preferences, while blockchain technology
affect vulnerable countries more acutely. By all can help to ensure transparency and acco­untability in
estimates, at the current rate of investment, it will be decision-making processes. The Open Government
impossible to meet the SDGs by 2030. The goals set Partnership could serve as a perfect fit-for-purpose
eight years ago, with a view to address the urgent SDG accelerator entry point in order to turn it from a
environmental, political and economic challenges global pressure and advocacy tool into a planning tool.
facing our planet are in dire straits. For Pakistan, The OGP, launched in 2012, is a multilateral initiative
trapped in economic low that aims to secure
growth, high inflation and concrete commitments
unemployment, falling from national and sub-
investments, excessive national governments to
fiscal deficits, and promote open government,
deteriorating external empower citizens, fight
balancing position, the corruption, and har­ness
inability to meet targets will new technologies to
plunge the country in a stren­g­then governance. It
deeper crisis. The builds on the three cardinal
demographic distribution of pri­nciples of
the population with four per transp­a­rency,
cent falling in the over 65- accountabi­lity and co-
year age bracket and 60pc belonging to the 15-64-year creation in policies as critical enablers for fostering
age cohort, adds to the volatile mix of high youth more ef­­fective and inclusive governance processes.
expectation and low country capacity to deliver. One
Pakistan joined the OGP at the OGP summit in Paris in
major challenge with the SDGs is that they are often
2016, but no action has been taken since to formalise
seen as a top-down approach with governments,
the agreement. The citizen-centric approach of OGP
organisations, and corporations making SDG
can promote participation in development and
implementation decisions without necessarily
implementation of government policies and
involving the communities they are meant to benefit.
programmes, aligning action with achievement,
This dilutes understanding and decreases buy-in from
monitoring progress and setting realistic goals for
communities, resulting in imp­lementation that does
scaling ambition. This approach is well suited for
not suit local needs. To address this challenge,
localising SDGs and enhancing collaboration with civil
democratising and localising the SDGs is essential. This
society organisations, the private sector and other
means involving local communities in decision-making,
stakeholders in developing innovative solutions to
and tailoring implementation strategies to meet their
complex development challenges. The SDGs are linked
unique needs. Some steps towards democratising and
closely to climate commitments. Achieving both is
localising the SDGs include: Empowering local
important for a safe future. Democratising SDGs will
communities by involving them in decision-making
optimise their full potential and ensure that
processes and providing then with tools and resources
governments are accountable to citizens and their
to take ownership of the SDGs. This could include
actions are in line with the SDGs. Meeting the SDGs will
training on how to contribute to decision-making
pave the way for a more equitable future. Missing them
processes, as well as funding or technical support to
will fast track our descent into disarray. © THE DAWN
implement projects that align with the SDGs. Ensuring
transparency and accountability by co-creating policies
 Joe Biden and Narendra Modi are
Drawing their Countries Closer
No country except China has propped up Russia’s war centres but data scientists for Goldman Sachs.
economy as much as oil-thirsty India. And few big Infrastructure has also improved under Mr Modi and
democracies have slid further in the rankings of his immediate predecessors, and manufacturing may
democratic freedom. But you would not guess it from pick up as supply chains diversify from China: Apple
the rapturous welcome Narendra Modi will receive in assembles 7% of iPhones in India. India’s chief failing is
Washington next week. India’s prime minister has been its vast numbers of unskilled, jobless young people. It
afforded the honour of a state visit by President Joe is trying to help them by pioneering a digital welfare
Biden. The Americans hope to strike defence deals. Mr. state.
Modi will be one of the few foreign leaders, along with
Thanks in part to its diaspora, India’s soft power is
Winston Churchill, Nelson Mandela and Volodymyr
world-beating. The bosses of Alphabet, ibm and
Zelensky, to address a joint session of Congress more
Microsoft are of Indian descent, as are the heads of
than once. The praise gushed on Capitol Hill about the
three of America’s five top business schools. Reflecting
partnership makes no mention of Ukraine, democracy
the accomplishment of Indian-Americans, 70% of the
or grit in the gears of America’s new best friendship.
wider American public views India favourably,
As our Asia section explains, the global clout of the compared with 15% for China.
South Asian giant is rising fast. Its economy is the
You might think all this makes America and India
world’s fifth biggest. Its 18m-strong diaspora is
natural partners. Certainly, a 25-year effort to develop
thriving, from America to the Gulf. And India has
ties has been unaffected by political changes in either
become indispensable to America’s effort to assert
country. India is part of the Quad, a security grouping
itself in Asia and deter Chinese aggression. Yet though
that includes America, Australia and Japan. In order to
huge, capitalist, democratic and wary of China, India is
augment India’s hard power, America is promoting a
also poor, populist and, as our interview with
series of defence deals, some of which may be signed
Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, its foreign minister,
in Washington next week, to enhance military-
outlines, dismissive of the vestiges of the post-1945
technology co-operation. The Biden administration
Western order. The relationship is therefore a test case
reckons this would be the biggest milestone in the
for the messy alliance of democracies emerging in a
bilateral relationship since the striking, in 2005, of a
multipolar world. Can both sides gain the business and
civil-nuclear co-operation agreement.
security benefits of co-operation even as they share
fewer principles than they may care to admit? Yet the relationship faces two potential sources of
friction. First, India’s pro-Western tilt—which became
India’s ascent is an uplifting story. One of the fastest-
more pronounced after border
growing economies, its gdp
skirmishes with Chinese
is expected to
troops in 2020—is
overtake Japan’s
essentially pragmatic.
and Germany’s by
Ideologically, it is
2028, even as it
suspicious of Western
treads a novel
countries and flatly
path towards
rejects their claim to
getting rich. In
global leadership. From
contrast to East
Jawaharlal Nehru to Mr
Asia’s Tigers,
Modi, India considers
India’s exports are
the post-war order to
powered by services,
have
of which it is the
world’s seventh-
largest vendor. Think
not just of call
offered it little more than another bout of domination by
other countries. The result of these contradictory
impulses is disorientating. India is an American
strategic partner that mistrusts the West, is unlikely
ever to enter a formal alliance with America and is
attached to Russia, which supplies it with arms. It is not
clear how much support, if push came to shove,
America could expect from India. It wants to bolster its
land defences against China, not fight over Taiwan.
The second sticking-point is Mr Modi’s attacks on
liberal norms. Under his Hindu nationalist,
Islamophobic party, India is increasingly hostile to over
200m of its own people. Lynchings and the
dispossession of Christians and Muslims are becoming
more common. The press is cowed and the courts are
largely pliant. Though India seems sure to remain a
democracy—not least because Mr. Modi is almost
guaranteed re-election next year—it is an illiberal one.
The fact that only 60m of its 1.4bn people have formal
jobs is a potentially explosive situation in a country
prone to rabble-rousing.
Some suggest that America risks repeating its history
with China, by showering economic advantages on a
rival that ends up turning against it. That seems
unlikely. Mutual suspicion of China alone should keep
India close. Primly rejecting co-operation with India
because its ideology and democracy do not conform to
Western ideals would only empower China. It would
also show that America has failed to adapt to the
multipolar world that lies ahead
Instead, America and its allies should be realistic about
where India’s sympathy lies—with its interests, not
theirs—and creative in their efforts to find overlaps
between the two. That means layering the relationship
with common endeavours. The Biden administration’s
efforts to accelerate technology transfer to India seem
a promising example. By boosting India’s defence
industry, America hopes to wean it off dud Russian
weapons and provide an affordable new source of arms
for other Asian democracies. Other areas of co-
operation could include clean energy and tech, where
both seek to avoid relying on China.
America’s foreign policy has always combined realism
with idealism. So America must speak out against
attacks on democratic norms and human rights, even
as it works more closely with India. For its part, India
must get used to the idea that, as it grows more
powerful, it will face more scrutiny. Discount the
expressions of unconditional friendship and
brotherhood in Washington next week. To work, the
relationship will have to function like a long-term
business partnership: India and America may not like
everything about it, but think of the huge upside. It may
be the most important transaction of the 21st century.
© The Economist
 Dealing with Islamophobia

The burning of the Holy Quran by an Iraqi citizen living expression and opinion does not provide a license to
in Sweden last Wednesday in front of the central stoke hatred and sabotage interfaith harmony.” The
mosque of Stockholm has sent a wave of shock and foreign ministry also urged the international
indignation throughout the Muslim world, and rightly community and national governments to undertake
so. credible and concrete measures to prevent the rising
incidents of xenophobia, Islamophobia, and anti-
People in several Muslim countries have held protest
Muslim hatred. Strong condemnations of the incident
rallies condemning the incident in the harshest
have also come from the Pope and the US.
possible terms. Some countries have even called the
Swedish ambassadors to lodge strong protests with In light of these developments, the Swedish
the Swedish government. In the wake of this despicable government has condemned the incident, terming it an
incident, the OIC urged member states to take unified ‘Islamophobic’ act. A statement issued by its foreign
and collective measures to prevent the recurrence of ministry said, “The Swedish government fully
incidents of desecration of the Holy Quran. The body’s understands that the Islamophobic acts committed by

secretary general, Hissein Brahim Taha, stressed the individuals at demonstrations in Sweden can be
need to send a clear message that acts of desecration offensive to Muslims. We strongly condemn these acts,
of the Holy Quran are not mere ordinary Islamophobic which in no way reflect the views of the Swedish
incidents. He said, “We must send constant reminders government.”
to the international community regarding the urgent
Meanwhile, the Pakistani government has decided to
application of international law, which clearly prohibits
observe Yaum-e-Taqaddus-e-Quran on Friday, which
any advocacy of religious hatred. International law
will see countrywide protests against the desecration
binds all states to prevent and prohibit any advocacy of
of the Holy Quran in Sweden. The government will also
‘religious hatred’ that leads to the incitement of
convene a joint session of the parliament on Thursday
violence.”
to formulate a national strategy on the issue and
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan also issued represent the nation’s sentiments and feelings through
a strongly worded statement, saying, “Such willful the parliamentary forum. The UN Human Rights
incitement to discrimination, hatred, and violence Council, at the request of Pakistan, has also decided to
cannot be justified under the pretext of freedom of hold an urgent session to address Islamophobia and
expression and protest. The right to freedom of religious hatred.
Different societies had accepted multifarious cultural The redeeming factor regarding this issue is that
coexistence as a way of life and a modern-day reality. effective voices have already started emerging for
However, 9/11 has most radically changed the global interfaith harmony. The biggest proponent of it is Pope
scenario. There has been a phenomenal rise in anti- Francis, who is on record repeatedly saying, “It is not
Muslim and anti-Islam sentiment, also called right to identify Islam with violence, as all religions
Islamophobia, in Western societies. Islam has come to have a small fundamentalist group. Faith is not the only
be identified with violence, provoking angry and cause of terrorism. Social injustice and the idolatry of
catastrophic reactions by individuals and groups money are the prime causes of terrorism. If I speak of
harboring anti-Islam feelings. This hostility is Islamic violence, I have to speak of Catholic violence.
manifested through the desecration of the Holy Quran Not all Muslims are violent.” The pope is right on the
and the publication of blasphemous material against money in his analysis of the causes of terrorism and in
the personality of the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) in dispelling the impression that all Muslims are violent.
the name of freedom of expression, and regrettably, the He has also tried to reach out to Muslims by visiting
governments there remain oblivious to the hurt it several countries in Asia and Africa, showing solidarity
causes to 1.3 billion Muslims across the globe. with Muslim communities affected by violence against
them and preaching interfaith harmony. A supporting
The dilemma is that some governments are even
verdict has also recently come from the European
encouraging this phenomenon through anti-Islam state
Court of Human Rights, stating that insulting Islam’s
policies. The case in point is the publication of
prophet is not covered by freedom of expression.
blasphemous caricatures of the Holy Prophet in France
Defaming the prophet goes beyond the permissible
during October 2020. It sent a wave of indignation
limits of an objective debate and could stir up prejudice
throughout the entire Muslim world, and almost all
and put religious peace at risk.
Muslim countries demanded that the French
government take preventive measures to stop the Dealing with the issue of Islamophobia and blasphemy
recurrence of such acts. However, French President requires the OIC to keep lobbying EU countries and the
Macron refused to heed the demands of the Muslim UN to outlaw blasphemy and the desecration of the
countries. He not only described Islam as a problematic Holy Quran, as has been done in some European
religion that needed to be contained but also countries regarding the denial of the Holocaust and the
announced stricter oversight on schooling and better propagation of Nazism. Only a collective and persistent
control over foreign funding of mosques. effort by the Muslim Ummah can help in this regard.
The issue of blasphemy and Islamophobia is probably © THE NATION
the biggest challenge
confronting the Muslim
world. It is not
exclusive to Pakistan.
The hate syndrome
against Islam is not
only causing upheaval
in the countries where
it has raised its ugly
head but is also
straining the
relationship between
the Muslim world and
Western countries. The
ugliest manifestation of
this hate against Islam
was the massacre of 50
Muslims in three
mosques in New
Zealand on 15 March
2019. However, one
cannot but express
appreciation for the
way the New Zealand
government dealt with
the issue and
expressed unqualified
solidarity with the
Muslim community.
 India’s Illegal Dam Construction
Nuzair Ahmed Jamro
It is no news that water is a natural gift of God. It is no Despite the fact that this Treaty guaranteed ten years
less than a blessing in disguise on earth; It is essential of uninterrupted water supply from India to Pakistan,
for the survival of all the states. It includes developed India is maximizing its use of water from the Indus,
as well as developing states. In order to make optimum Chenab and Jhelum rivers of Pakistan. However,
use of water, every state aims at developing dams. The millions of people in both countries are solely
major reason behind building dams includes flood dependent on water in these rivers.
control, irrigation, and hydroelectricity production.
Woefully, India is busy in building dams on all the rivers
Such dams play a pivotal role to meet the challenges of
flowing into Pakistan from occupied Kashmir in order
climate change and variable weather patterns. These
to regain control of water of western rivers. It is a
challenges have been raised exponentially in the shape
violation of the Indus Water Treaty. History has
of monsoon rivers, particularly in India and Pakistan.
witnessed that India has left no stone unturned in
It is saddening to learn that India, the neighbouring rival spoiling Pakistan’s link-canal system, destroying
state of Pakistan, has started posing threats to agriculture of Pakistan which is its mainstay and
Pakistan by making ample dams. This is another turning Pakistan into a desert.

menacing attempt by India other than terrorism using

It has become increasingly important for developing
bombing.
states to build dams to store water for hard times but
For the first time, India stopped the supply of water to India has the nightmarish dream of causing threat to
Pakistan from every canal flowing to Pakistan on 1 April Pakistan by building dams in order to stop water during
1948. As a result, Pakistan protested and India finally crop season and release maximum water during
agreed on an interim agreement on 4 May 1948. This monsoon to sink the country.
agreement was not a permanent solution. In the end,
There is no denying that India has already built 14
another agreement was signed between India and
hydroelectric plants on Chenab River. For blocking the
Pakistan in September 1960, which is known as the
entire water of Chenab for 20-25 days, it is building
Indus Water Treaty, during Ayub Khan’s regime.
more plants.
However, another dam in the making is the metres of water was available to every Pakistani
Kishanganga hydroelectric project on the Neelum River citizen 60 years ago.
in India. it will drop the average flow of Neelum water
Torrential monsoon rains have already caused havoc in
by 21 per cent in Pakistan, and would lead to energy
Pakistan with over 350 deaths and damage to property
losses amounting to billions of rupees and to serious
and livestock in 2022. India released 300,000 cusecs of
environmental damage
water downstream into the already flooded rivers of
Desalination technologies should be pondered on by Pakistan.it added fuel to fire in flood. The situation
the current government. It can turn seawater, an painted the grim picture of Indian hostility.
inexhaustible resource, into fresh drinkable water. In
Pakistan has made headways to mitigate these
this way, this would strengthen the water security in
challenges. In September 2011, the country had
both neighbouring countries by preventing them from
protested the construction of the Kishanganga project
relying heavily on the shared river. Desalination can
and succeeded in getting a stay order regarding its
improve the water security in Pakistan, with
construction fronm the Court of Arbitration. As it would
desalinated water over 1.2 billion cubic metres a day.
adversely affect 133,209 hectares of agricultural land in
Both states can bring a long-term peaceful end to
Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan has launched
decades old agreement by relying on seawater as one
multiple attempts to prevent India from building dams
of the most pragmatic ways in contemporary era.
on both the Chenab and the Neelum rivers for the last
India can block 7000 cusecs of water per day through two decades.
Baglihar Dam. It would divert the River Neelum to
India’s building dams would have severe ramification
Wullar Lake and leave very little water for Pakistan. Its
for Pakistan. It is a matter of survival for the country.
negative consequences are that it had reduced the flow
With the construction of dams, fears of future water
of water in Chenab River during the sowing period of
shortages would cause diplomatic tensions between
August to October 2008. Pakistan lost 23000 cusecs of
India and Pakistan. Losing control over the Neelam
water. Farmers could not irrigate their fields; it badly
River would put the life of Mangla dam at risk.
affected the agriculture sector.
For Pakistan, there is still a green signal to get rid of
Moreover, the construction of 450-MW Baglihar
Indian atrocities regarding building dams illegally.
hydropower power project created acute water
Drastic times call for drastic measures. There are two
shortage on the Chenab River. The project is 470-feet
aspects that can pave the way forward for Pakistan:
high and has a 317-meter-wide dam with a storage
how the country can utilize its own potential, and how
capacity of 15 billion cusecs.
its potential can be affected by India. It is time to
Similarly, Chutak is under construction on River Suru. reactivate the World Bank arbitration process as the
Collapsing of these dams or releasing of large amounts first stance, and the pace of work at Neelum-Jhelum
of water from them will endanger the proposed Bhasha should be significantly increased as the second.
dam and submerge Skardu city and airport. Pakistan’s water issues with India are as important as
the resolution of the Kashmir problem. The country
The most crucial and the biggest of the five dams is the
should invest in making new large dams and finish the
Sawalkot project, located in Doda and Udhampur
under-construction Dams quickly to meet the
districts of occupied Kashmir, with a capacity of 1200
challenges of India’s hostile state.
MW. The project is also higher than the Baghlihar Dam.
It can render Pakistani rivers vulnerable to water In a nutshell, WAPDA’s Vision 2025 should be turned
shortage. into action which aimed at planning four storage
reservoirs: Yugo, Skardu, Basha and Kalabagh.
The Sawalkot dam would be highly vulnerable to
Similarly, the Mohmand Dam, a new dam project on the
earthquakes, being in the seismic zone of Kashmir
Swat River, must be completed in 2024 and the Dasu
Himalayas. This could be an environmental disaster for
Dam project on the Indus in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Pakistan as the lower riparian.
province in 2028.
India has already chalked out the plan to build 93 dams
Also, desalination technologies should be pondered on
at an estimated Rs 230-billion. It will make agricultural
by the current government. It can turn seawater, an
lands barren in Pakistan as it will almost dry up the
inexhaustible resource, into fresh drinkable water. In
rivers. India has already finalized 50-60, medium-sized
this way, this would strengthen the water security in
projects.Over 100 such projects are planned with
both neighbouring countries by preventing them from
cutting of trees intended. The resulting environmental
relying heavily on the shared river. Desalination can
impact will also impact Pakistan’s water due to the
improve the water security in Pakistan, with
environmental degradation and increased sediment
desalinated water over 1.2 billion cubic metres a day.
flow.
Both states can bring a long-term peaceful end to
Pakistan is already under the impending cloud of water decades old agreement by relying on seawater as one
disaster and its availability would plunge to 800 cubic of the most pragmatic ways in contemporary era.
metres per capita annually by 2020 from the current
© PAKISTAN TODAY
1200 cubic metres. History revealed that 5000 cubic
 After Biparjoy
Mariam Rashid
WHILE Pakistan may have been spared the worst of these people. But displacement can cause distress.
Cyclone Biparjoy, let us not forget that beneath the Fishermen, for example, risk leaving behind their
calm waters of the Arabian Sea, a profound energy is boats, and other inhabitants of vulnerable spots are
beginning to stir. Global warming is changing the very also unable to take their livestock with them during an
nature of our storms, and we cannot afford to overlook emergency evacuation — but these are practically their
it any longer. only sources of income.
Biparjoy tells a story of a relentless power beyond our The residents of Karachi, particularly those in the
grasp. Year after year, Pakistan undergoes devastating coastal areas, risk having their homes destroyed by the
climate impacts — from floods to heatwaves to strong winds that cyclones bring with them. With the
drought. Despite contributing less than one per cent to affected coastal areas housing large and often
global greenhouse gas emissions, our country is one of impoverished populations, evacuation is often a
the most vulnerable victims of the ever-changing difficult and imperfect solution. So, what then?
climate and its adverse effects.
Cyclones are here to stay, and we must learn to adapt.
Cyclones like Biparjoy reveal the urgency of our Climate-resilient infrastructure is an innovative
climate crisis. Of the two major basins of the northern solution with the potential to help. During the 2010
Indian Ocean, namely the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian floods, architect Yasmeen Lari designed and built over
Sea, the latter has not historically generated a lot of 1,000 low-cost, eco-friendly, and water-resistant
cyclonic activity. But this has changed drastically over homes in Sindh using locally sourced bamboo, mud,
the past few decades, primarily due to global warming. and lime. The hou­ses were not only able to withstand
Studies show that sea surface temperatures over the extreme weather but provided an accessible blueprint
Arabian Sea have increased from 1.2 to 1.4 degrees for locals to emulate sustainably.
Celsius in recent decades. And this figure is likely to
By 2014, Lari and her organisation, the Heritage
keep rising. Warmer waters, it would appear, become a
Foun­dation of Pakis­tan, had constructed 40,000
hotbed for cyclonic activity.
zero-carbon shelters in Sindh and KP. When the floods
It is no surprise, then, that Biparjoy is not an anomaly. hit again in 2011 and 2012, these homes were able to
In the last few years, the Arabian Sea has witnessed resist widespread damage to life, property, and
cyclones Vayu, Nisarga, and Tauktae. In fact, studies livestock. Lari’s “barefoot social architecture” had
show a 52pc rise in the total number of cyclones and a proven effective.
150pc increase in the number of severe cyclones in the
Approaches like Lari’s disaster-resilient infrastructure
last four decades, with increased global warming
are essential to prepare ourselves for the long-term
causing an exponential rise in the frequency and
climate crisis and its effects. Biparjoy was expected to
intensity of tropical cyclones in the region. The
hit southern Pakistan — Thatta, Keti Bandar, Suja­wal,
tumultuous Arabian Sea has been warning us for
and Badin — areas that had been devastated by floods
decades now, and it is we who have continued to turn a
only a year ago, leaving thousands displaced and
blind eye.
scores of homes destroyed. One can only imagine the
With rapid shifts in global temperature, cyclones are damage which could have been caused had the cyclone
becoming more and more likely to occur in places not changed its predicted trajectory.
where they are least expected.
Instead of treating evacuation as a sole solution,
The coasts of India and Pakistan are under constant Pakistan must turn to promote localised, eco-friendly,
threat. As Biparjoy approached the coast, it was and sustainable solutions like bamboo homes. If we are
predicted that communities in southern Sindh would to minimise the damage that climate change is
receive very heavy rainfall and storm surges of up to wreaking on us, effective climate adaptation is
3.5 metres high. The Pakistan Meteorological essential — a task that requires us to think anew, to
Department also warned that traditional mud and think further, and to think resiliently.
straw homes were particularly vulnerable to
© THE DAWN
disintegration due to these surges. We may feel lucky
to have escaped disaster but it is uncertain when the
next one will strike.
In response to potential risk, Pakistani civil and military
authorities evacuated over 80,000 people from the
coastal areas to safety. Schools and government
buildings were converted into relief camps to house
 Fossil Fuel Reform can Finance
our Future
Andreas Sieber
Last week, representatives from states and We saw this in the recent G7 Summit, which was hosted
international organisations attended the Summit for a by Japan in May. The final communique failed to deliver
New Global Financial Pact in Paris – a first-of-its-kind for the climate, and in fact, pedestalled dangerous
conference aimed at examining how the global financial distractions like fossil gas and carbon capture. These
system exacerbates economic challenges for the so-called “short-term solutions”, which represent
Global South. major impediments to progress, were justified by the
ongoing war in Ukraine and the cost of living crisis.
The summit was the outcome of a radical call to
restructure the global financial system, led by It is the responsibility of G20 governments to stop
Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley and known as the propping up fossil fuels and make polluters pay their
Bridgetown Initiative. The idea: to address the fair share for their damages. Ending fossil fuel
inequalities that are built into the system – remnants handouts in the G20 alone would raise $600bn a year.
of decades of colonialism, imperialism and exploitation While low-income households around the world have
by a handful of dominant countries. been pushed further into poverty over the last two
years, oil and gas companies made record profits and
So how does this relate to climate change? Climate
wealthy countries continued to heavily subsidise them.
justice can only be achieved when the rights of
Indigenous peoples; social, economic, and gender One of the most glaring failures of the current financial
justice; and respect for all human rights are integrated system is that when developing countries that host
in its pursuit. affected communities do receive funds for climate
adaptation, mitigation, health, aid and development,
The summit proved to be only a starting point of
they are mostly in the form of loans instead of grants.
essential discussions. To address
They are also forced to repay
the most pressing challenges of
loans at a higher interest rate
our time — the climate crisis
than rich countries, which pushes
among them – will require
them further and further into
trillions of dollars in financing
debt, while simultaneously facing
and reform of some of the world’s
climate impacts that are
biggest financial institutions.
increasing in severity and
Crucially, world leaders must
frequency.
continue discussions on
mobilising public finance at the COP28 later this year will
upcoming G20, World Bank and represent a pivotal moment in
IMF annual meetings. securing the 1.5-degree Celsius
(2.7F) threshold: if this is the COP
It is no coincidence that the
to “course correct”, no outcome
countries benefitting from the
will be credible without a
current system are the same
centrepiece decision to phase out
states that have been
all fossil fuels – coal, oil, and gas
instrumental in the proliferation
– while simultaneously powering up renewables.
of the industrial fossil fuel industry responsible for the
climate crisis. Rich countries must also fulfil obligations to provide
$100 bn a year in climate financing to developing
The current global economy is a fossil-fuelled one. The
countries. This must be in the form of grants and not
communities facing the brunt of climate change are
loans, be new money — that is not siphoned from other
mostly those that are the least responsible for it. More
promised contributions — and be directly aimed
often than not, they are also the ones hit the hardest by
towards climate adaptation and mitigation.
the co-effects of climate change — like the rising cost
of living, rising inequality and unequal access to Common people are the ones struggling with the
essential resources. surging cost of living and worsening climate impacts,
while fossil fuel corporations are making more money
The summit represented an unprecedented
than ever.
international inquiry into financial systems change, but
like most international meetings of heads of state, Any just transformation of the global financial system
there was reluctance among the political elite to must thus include debt cancellation for developing
fundamentally alter the status quo. countries, and leaders must commit to taxing fossil fuel
corporations’ profits and using this money to invest in
a renewable-powered future. © AL JAZEERA
 The High Price of Dollar
Dominance
Michael Pettis
At an April summit of the so-called BRICS—Brazil, GOLD AND SILVER, DOLLARS AND
Russia, India, China, and South Africa—Brazilian
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva demanded to know
DEFICITS
why the world continues to base nearly all its trade on Before the dollar’s ascent in the first half of the
the U.S. dollar. To thunderous applause, he asked, “Why twentieth century, currencies and reserves that funded
can’t we do trade based on our own currencies? Who trade consisted mainly of specie—gold and silver coins.
was it that decided that the dollar was the currency To the extent that central banks began to hold foreign
after the disappearance of the gold standard?” currencies as part of their reserves in the nineteenth
century, they mainly did so in the form of gold coins or
Lula’s speech echoed one side of a debate that has
currencies that they believed were convertible into
heated up in recent years about the future of the U.S.
specie. When historians say that British sterling was
dollar as the dominant global currency. Those who
the dominant reserve currency before the U.S. dollar,
claim that the dollar is in decline often argue that for
they mean that the United Kingdom’s commitment to
the last 600 years, reserve currencies have risen and
fallen in tandem with their home economies. As the maintaining convertibility was seen as more credible
United States’ share of the global economy than that of other central banks, which might therefore
diminishes, they claim, the dollar’s role will hold sterling in addition to gold.
also diminish. But the truth is that there
In the pre-dollar era, moreover, a
were no dominant global reserve
currency’s usefulness in global
currencies before the U.S. dollar. It is the
trade was largely unrelated to the
only currency ever to have played such a
strength of its home economy. The
pivotal role in international commerce.
United States, for example, was the
There is a downside to a dominant U.S. dollar, world’s largest and richest economy
however. To play the role of linchpin of the by the 1860s, but because its
global economy, the United States must let commitment to gold
capital flow freely across its borders convertibility was seen as
and absorb the savings and questionable, the U.S. dollar
demand imbalances of remained a minor currency
other countries—that is, it until the 1920s. In large
must run deficits to parts of Latin America
offset the others’ and Asia, meanwhile,
surpluses the dominant currency
and allow for trade was not
them to that of a major
convert economic
their excess power at all.
production and Because of
savings into their purity
U.S. assets by and consistency,
purchasing Mexican silver
real estate, factories, stocks, pesos ruled over even the sterling in
or bonds. This pushes down global demand, forcing the international trade for much of the eighteenth and
United States to compensate, often with higher nineteenth centuries.
unemployment or debt. Both the United States and the
These are not just technical differences. Global trade
world at large would benefit from a less dominant U.S.
and capital flows were structured very differently in the
dollar, in other words. But contrary to Lula’s
old specie-standard world than they are in today’s
expectations, adopting an alternative global reserve
dollar-dominated one. In the former, trade imbalances
currency will not necessarily benefit surplus countries
were limited by the ability of each country to manage
such as Brazil. Rather, it will force them to confront the
specie transfers. No matter how large a country’s
reasons for their surpluses—persistently weak
economy or how powerful its central bank, its currency
domestic demand based on a very unequal distribution
could be used to settle trade only to the extent that it
of domestic income—and address them by cutting back
was seen as fully exchangeable with specie. As foreign
on production and redistributing income.
holdings of the country’s currency rose relative to the
specie holdings of its central bank, the promise of
convertibility would become less and less credible, But surpluses in one country must be accommodated
thereby discouraging the currency’s use. by deficits in another. Since the 1980s, the United States
has accommodated the surpluses of other countries by
These limits had important consequences. One was
allowing them to be easily converted into claims on U.S.
that under a specie standard, trade in each country
assets. As a result, the U.S. dollar reigns supreme in
broadly balanced (with the exception of small
international trade, but the U.S. economy is forced to
imbalances driven by capital flows that funded
absorb weak demand from abroad, either by pushing
productive investment). Another, more important
up domestic unemployment or, more likely, by
consequence was that the process through which trade
encouraging the rise of U.S. government and household
flows equilibrated—described by the Scottish
debt.
philosopher and economist David Hume’s model of the
price-specie flow mechanism—acted symmetrically on THE INDISPENSABLE DOLLAR
both surplus countries and deficit countries, so that
demand contraction in the latter was matched by This does not mean that the United States must always
demand expansion in the former. run deficits to anchor the global trading system to the
dollar, as many have argued. But it does mean that
The current dollar-based system is very different. In when the world needs savings, the United States
this system, imbalances are limited mainly by the exports savings and runs trade surpluses, and when
willingness and ability of the United States to import or the world has excess savings, the United States
export claims on its domestic assets—that is, to allow imports savings and runs trade deficits.
holders of foreign capital to be net sellers or net buyers
of American real estate and securities. The result is The United States did the former from the 1920s
that countries can run large, persistent through the 1970s, a five-decade
surpluses or deficits only period during which many
because these countries urgently needed
imbalances are to rebuild manufacturing
accommodated by capacity and
opposite infrastructure
imbalances in the destroyed in the
United States. two world wars.
Even worse, the With European and
contractionary effect Asian incomes
of deficits on the global devastated by
economy is not offset by conflict, countries
expansion in the surplus in these regions
countries, as it was in pre- needed foreign savings
dollar systems. At the Bretton to help reconstruct their
Woods conference, in 1944, the British economist John economies. Because the
Maynard Keynes strenuously opposed a global trading United States was the world’s leading trade surplus
system in which surpluses or deficits were allowed to nation in this period, it quickly moved to meet the need
persist, but he was overruled by the senior American by exporting excess savings, establishing the dollar as
official at the conference, Harry Dexter White. As a the dominant global currency in the process.
result, deficit countries must absorb the deficient By the early 1970s, however, most of the world’s leading
domestic demand of surplus countries while surplus economies had rebuilt themselves from the ravages of
countries avoid adjusting—which would entail either war. Now, they had savings of their own that they
paring back production or redistributing wealth to needed to export to propel their economies even
workers—by accumulating foreign assets and putting higher. Once again, the United States obliged: its
permanent downward pressure on global demand. openness to foreign capital, its flexible financial
This adjustment process is not well understood, even markets, and its high-quality governance meant that it
among mainstream economists. Surplus countries run absorbed much of the excess savings of the rest of the
surpluses not because they are especially efficient at world. It is no coincidence that the 1970s is when the
manufacturing but because their manufacturers enjoy United States’ large, persistent surpluses began to
implicit and explicit subsidies that are ultimately paid dwindle, giving way by the 1980s to large, persistent
for by workers and households and so come at the deficits that have continued to this day.
expense of domestic demand. This, as Keynes This willingness to let capital flow freely and to absorb
explained, is how mercantilist policies work— the savings and demand imbalances of the rest of the
improving international competitiveness by world is what underpins the dominant role of the U.S.
suppressing domestic demand—and is why they are dollar. No other country before the United States has
referred to as “beggar thy neighbor” tactics. Rather played this role to nearly the same extent, which is why
than converting rising exports into rising imports, they no other currency has dominated international trade
result in persistent trade surpluses. and capital flows the way the dollar does today. What
is more, no other country or group of countries—not
China, Japan, the BRICS, or the European Union—is
willing to play this role or would be able to without
Infographics
dramatically overhauling its financial system,
redistributing domestic income, eliminating capital
controls, and undermining exports—all of which would
likely be highly disruptive.
For all these reasons, no other currency can replace
the U.S. dollar. When the dollar’s reign eventually ends,
so will the current global trade and capital regime.
Once the United States (and the other Anglophone
economies that play similar roles) stops absorbing up
to 80 percent of the excess production and excess
savings of surplus countries such as Brazil, China,
Germany, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, these countries
will no longer be able to run surpluses. And without
surpluses, they will be forced to cut domestic
production so that it no longer exceeds weak domestic
demand. In other words, only the dollar’s widespread
use has permitted the huge imbalances that have
characterized the global economy of the past 50 years.

A POST-DOLLAR WORLD?
But an indispensable dollar is not a good thing, either
for the United States or for the rest of the world. The
global economy would be better off if the United States
stopped accommodating global savings imbalances
that allowed surplus economies to dampen global
demand. The U.S. economy in particular would benefit
because it would no longer be forced to absorb,
through higher unemployment or more debt, the effects
of the mercantilist policies of surplus countries.
Washington and Wall Street would see their powers
curtailed, but American businesses would grow faster,
and American workers would earn more.
Getting to a post-dollar world will not be easy,
however. What much of the debate about the eventual
demise of the dollar misses is how economically
disruptive the change will be for persistent surplus
countries, which will have to dramatically downsize
entire industries that are currently geared to exports.
The transition will entail more than just selecting a new
currency in which to denominate trade. It will involve
building radically different structures for trade and
capital flows. And while these may be more sustainable
and beneficial to the U.S. economy in the long run, their
adoption will be messy and painful for the world’s
surplus economies.
The answer to Lula’s question of who designated the
U.S. dollar the global reserve currency is ironic: it was
surplus countries such as Brazil and China. And
despite what their leaders might say, none of them are
in a hurry to upend the current system. Until these
countries fundamentally transform their domestic
economies—or until the United States decides it will no
longer pay the steep economic cost of performing its
accommodating role—they and the rest of the world
will have no choice but to accept the continued
dominance of the U.S. dollar.
© FOREIGN AFFAIRS
 The Race to Regulate Artificial
Intelligence
Anu Bradford
Artificial intelligence is taking the world by storm. in its reluctance to put constraints on AI. The U.S.
ChatGPT and other new generative AI technologies approach to AI regulation is profoundly informed by a
have the potential to revolutionize the way people work deep-seated techno-optimism and a relentless pursuit
and interact with information and each other. At best, of innovation and technological progress, with U.S. tech
these technologies allow humans to reach new companies revered as drivers of that progress.
frontiers of knowledge and productivity, transforming
Washington views AI as an opportunity to drive
labor markets, remaking economies, and leading to
economic growth and solidify U.S. tech and military
unprecedented levels of economic growth and societal
supremacy in the midst of an intensifying U.S.-Chinese
progress.
tech competition and mounting geopolitical tensions.
At the same time, the pace of AI development is Washington’s single-minded focus on economic and
unsettling technologists, citizens, and regulators alike. geopolitical primacy has made regulation an
Even ardent techno-enthusiasts—including figures afterthought. As a result, the United States has crafted
such as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Apple co-founder no substantive federal AI legislation and simply
Steve Wozniak—are issuing warnings about how suggested voluntary standards that tech companies
unregulated AI can lead to uncontrollable harms, can choose to adopt or ignore. The Blueprint for an AI
posing severe threats to individuals and societies. The Bill of Rights, for instance—a handbook published by
direst predictions concern AI’s ability to obliterate the White House in October 2022—offers guidance for
labor markets and make humans obsolete or—under developers and users of AI on how to safeguard the
the most extreme scenario—even destroy humanity. American public’s rights in the AI age but ultimately
places its trust in tech companies’ self-regulation.
With tech companies racing to advance artificial
Prominent policymakers including Lina Khan, the chair
intelligence capabilities amid intense criticism and
of the Federal Trade Commission, have warned that
scrutiny, Washington is facing mounting pressure to
leaving AI regulation in the hands of businesses could
craft AI regulation without quashing innovation.
come at a steep cost, and they have argued that
Different regulatory paradigms are already emerging in
government regulation will be critical to ensuring that
the United States, China, and Europe, rooted in distinct
artificial intelligence technology benefits all. But
values and incentives. These different approaches will
comprehensive AI regulation remains a distant
not only reshape domestic markets—but also
prospect in the United States, given the political
increasingly guide the expansion of American, Chinese,
dysfunction in Congress and persistent concerns
and European digital empires, each advancing a
among decision-makers that any such regulation
competing vision for the global digital economy while
would likely compromise innovation and undermine
attempting to expand its sphere of influence in the
American technological leadership.
digital world.
China, in contrast, has adopted a state-driven approach
As the race for AI dominance heats up, how states
toward digital regulation as part of an ambitious effort
choose to govern artificial intelligence will have a
to make China the world’s leading technology
profound impact on the future of technology and
superpower. Beijing’s hands-on approach to the digital
society. With the AI regulation debate in Washington at
economy is also aimed at tightening the political grip of
a critical juncture, the United States cannot afford to sit
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) by deploying
on the sidelines while China and Europe decide these
digital technologies as a tool for censorship,
fundamental issues for the world.
surveillance, and propaganda. The Chinese government
DIGITAL EMPIRES facilitated the growth of the country’s tech industry
early on. In recent years, however, Beijing has
When it comes to digital regulation, the United States is
undertaken a harsh and proactive crackdown on its
following a market-driven approach, China is
tech sector in the name of advancing “common
advancing a state-driven approach, and the EU is
prosperity”—and to ensure that tech giants do not
pursuing a rights-driven approach. The U.S. model
overpower the Chinese state.
reflects an uncompromising faith in markets and
reserves a limited role for the government. It centers Recognizing the potential economic and political
on protecting free speech, the free Internet, and benefits of AI, the Chinese government is heavily
incentives to innovate. Washington views digital subsidizing new tools that will improve its ability to
technologies as a source of economic prosperity and conduct mass surveillance of its citizens in the name of
preserving social stability. China’s authoritarian
political freedom and, consequently, a tool for societal
technology regime gives it incentive to regulate AI:
transformation and progress—a view that is reflected
although AI-powered facial recognition can aid
Beijing’s efforts to exert political control, ChatGPT-type The EU was on the verge of adopting the AI Act when
generative AI can undermine that control. Generative OpenAI introduced ChatGPT to the public in November
AI relies on large quantities of data, and the technology 2022, presenting European lawmakers with a thorny
continues to evolve as it is being deployed. This poses challenge on how to regulate a general-purpose AI that
a novel challenge to the Chinese censorship regime, can be deployed toward both risky and safe ends. This
which may struggle to keep up. question will likely dominate the last stages of the
legislative process, but the European Parliament has
In the face of these potential challenges, Beijing is
already indicated that generative AI must comply with
determined to maintain a tight grip on the country’s AI
various transparency requirements and be designed in
capabilities. In 2022, the Chinese government
ways that do not violate fundamental rights or generate
introduced landmark regulations targeting deepfake
illegal content. Once this binding legislation is finalized,
technologies and recommendation algorithms, which
it will become the first comprehensive AI regulation in
risk undermining Chinese citizens’ basic rights and
the world.
trust in digital technologies—and also threaten the
CCP’s control of China’s digital economy. In April, the NEITHER MARKET NOR STATE
government issued draft regulations on generative AI
that hold developers responsible for prohibited or Washington’s, Beijing’s, and Brussels’s different visions
illegal content—including content that deviates from for an age of artificial intelligence are a major step in
the political values of CCP. These legislative the ongoing construction of three separate “digital
developments suggest that the Chinese government is empires” that compete for control over the future of
committed to steering the country’s AI future with a technology and attempt to expand spheres of influence
heavy hand, encouraging technological progress while in the digital world as other countries look for guidance
ensuring that AI will not undermine social stability and on AI legislation.
the political control of the CCP. AI’s promise to fuel technological progress and
The European Union has departed from both the United economic growth, together with the challenges of
States and China in pioneering its own regulatory regulating a fast-evolving technology, will likely cause
model that focuses on the rights of users and citizens. some governments to opt for U.S.-style voluntary
In the European view, AI heralds a digital guidance. The American market-driven model has
transformation with such disruptive potential that it generated tremendous wealth and fueled enviable
cannot be left to the whims of tech companies but must technological progress. At the same time, it is
instead be firmly anchored in the rule of law and increasingly clear that the lack of regulation on U.S.
democratic governance. In practice, this means that tech companies has come with a price. Washington has
governments need to step in to uphold the fundamental remained blind to many market failures, revealing the
rights of individuals, preserve the democratic repeated abuse of market power by leading tech
structures of society, and ensure a fair distribution of companies such as Google monopolizing digital
the benefits from the digital economy. advertising technologies to the detriment of its rivals.
These market failures, together with the proliferation
This European rights-driven approach is already of disinformation and revelations regarding the tech
reflected in pathbreaking EU regulations such as the companies’ exploitation of users’ personal data, are
General Data Protection Regulation, which protects fueling widespread and growing distrust of tech
citizens’ data privacy. It has also recently adopted the companies. To curtail the outsized power of U.S. tech
Digital Markets Act, which imposes obligations on so- companies over overseas Internet users, governments
called digital gatekeepers, including U.S. tech giants, to across the world are now seeking to reassert control
curtail their dominance and protect competition; and over their digital markets and rein in leading tech
the Digital Services Act, which establishes rules companies. Even the American public and U.S.
holding online platforms accountable for the content lawmakers across the political spectrum are now
they host. Advancements in AI are pushing Europe even calling for greater government oversight of the tech
further in this direction. EU lawmakers recently passed industry.
a comprehensive draft law known as the AI Act, which
seeks to mitigate risks posed by AI and ensure that As the appeal of the United States’ approach wanes, the
individuals’ fundamental rights are protected. Under Chinese state-driven model is gaining ground. China is
the draft legislation, which is expected to be finalized already building a Digital Silk Road, exporting AI-driven
by the end of this year, AI systems that exploit surveillance technologies and other digital
individuals’ vulnerabilities or manipulate human infrastructure to governments around the world.
behavior will be prohibited. Predictive policing will be Authoritarian governments find China’s model
outlawed, as will the use of real-time facial recognition appealing given Beijing’s apparent ability to combine
in public places, as it compromises fundamental rights thriving innovations with political control. But
and freedoms and places large parts of the population generative AI may shift their views by revealing that
under constant surveillance. AI systems that can lead with stricter control comes less innovation. Despite
to discrimination in people’s access to employment or leading the world in AI-driven surveillance
public benefits will also be tightly regulated. technologies, China continues to lag behind the United
States in developing generative AI systems. This is in
part because of the country’s censorship rules that U.S. political process, which has already stymied
limit the data that can be used to train foundation meaningful AI legislation. Relentless lobbying by tech
models—demonstrating that Internet freedom may companies has further contributed to the endurance of
better serve innovation and economic growth, at least the status quo.
in this class of digital technology.
Three recent developments, however, suggest that the
If the U.S. market-driven model seems too permissive, United States may abandon its techno-libertarian
and the Chinese state-driven model seems too approach and embrace AI regulation, aligning itself
restrictive, the European approach might represent a closer with the EU. First, the domestic support for
“Goldilocks” alternative: a third way that seeks to check regulation is reaching a tipping point, with prominent AI
cor­porate power while protecting fundamental rights experts and developers such as Altman and the AI
and preserving democratic institutions. Amid mounting pioneer Geoffrey Hinton joining lawmakers and the
backlash against U.S. tech companies, governments general public in their support for regulation. In this
across the world—including those in Australia, Brazil, new political environment, regulatory inaction is
Canada, and South Korea—are moving away from a harder to defend. Second, the United States may
market-driven framework and instead increasingly conclude that it prefers to set regulations jointly with
emulating European digital regulations to regain the EU rather than have the EU regulate the U.S. market
control over their digital economies. unilaterally via the Brussels Effect. Third, the United
States’ and the EU’s shared concern about the China’s
The EU may shape global AI development regardless of
growing global influence provides a strong impetus for
whether other governments follow its regulatory
closer transatlantic cooperation.
approach. Tech companies often extend the EU’s
stringent regulations across their global business The United States has repeatedly stressed its desire to
operations to stand­ardize their products and services partner with the EU and other democratic allies to
worldwide—a phenomenon known as the Brussels promote norms that are consistent with civil rights and
Effect. AI developers who want to use European data to democratic values and to consolidate a united
train algorithms, for instance, will be bound by the EU’s democratic front against China and its digital
AI Act even beyond the EU’s borders. Should they want authoritarian allies. The Biden administration
to escape the EU’s regulatory constraints, they will increasingly draws ideological battle lines in the fight
need to develop entirely new algorithms without for tech dominance, framing competition as a battle of
European data. In this way, Europe may well have a techno-democracies against techno-autocracies. If
hand in shaping AI regulation abroad as well as at that is indeed how Washington sees the contest, then
home, globalizing Europe’s rights-driven norms and the case for U.S.-EU cooperation is overwhelming. The
extending the EU’s digital sphere of influence in the United States and the EU could put aside their
process. In a telling example, in May OpenAI’s Sam differences and develop joint standards on AI, designed
Altman threatened to pull ChatGPT out of the EU, citing to promote innovation, protect fundamental rights, and
emerging regulatory constraints—only to reverse his preserve democracy. However, as many parts of the
threat days later amidst sharp criticism from European world slide toward authoritarianism, Washington and
lawmakers. The dominance of Europe’s regulatory Brussels will struggle to curtail the growing demand
approach would likely generate a mixed response; for Chinese surveillance technologies, risking the
some foreign citizens and governments may welcome possibility that AI will often be deployed as a tool to
Europe’s efforts and take comfort in knowing that the undermine democracy.
EU’s digital protections extend to them. Other foreign
In the coming years, there will be clear winners and
stakeholders, however, may well accuse the EU of
losers not only in the race to develop AI technologies
regulatory imperialism, arguing that the Brussels
but also in the competition among the regulatory
Effect risks undermining innovation, economic growth,
approaches that govern those technologies. These
and societal progress everywhere—in addition to
competing models will empower tech companies,
compromising foreign governments’ ability to regulate
governments, or digital
AI according to their own values and interests.
citizens in different ways,
THE FUTURE OF THE AI REVOLUTION with far-reaching
economic and
As the EU and China lead the race to regulate AI, political
Washington needs to decide whether it wants to have a consequences.
role in building the digital world of the future. The How governments
salience of the U.S.-Chinese tech competition may go about those
persuade Washington to continue to err on the side of choices will
unconstrained AI development, with U.S. policymakers determine whether the
insisting on the virtues of free markets and continuing unfolding AI revolution will
to place trust in tech companies’ ability and desire to serve democracy and deliver
mitigate any harms associated with AI. The United unprecedented prosperity, or lead to grave
States may also find itself incapable of regulating AI societal harms—or even unforeseeable
technology simply because of the dysfunction of the catastrophe. © FOREIGN AFFAIRS
 The Water Security Nexus
Maham Naweed
The volatility associated with the water crisis cannot be According to the United Nations, both Pakistan and
understood in isolation from national and international India are facing acute water stress. Water dynamics
security. States, throughout history, have been known between Pakistan and India need to be seen from a
to be notoriously jealous and protective over their security lens. The matter at hand is that perceptions of
control and use of natural resources. the Treaty fluctuate in both countries according to the
overall bilateral relations between the countries. As a
As water scarcity increases, the risk of acute conflict
result, bilateral relations on other levels impact the
over transboundary watercourses also rises. There
water relationship between Pakistan and India.
have been claims, made by experts, that the
geopolitical environment is poised for “water wars”. The fact that the military establishments of both
Moreover, violent conflict over water and its resources, countries are active stakeholders in the water crisis
although sparingly, has been experienced by the global further radicalises the issue. In the face of
community in the past. unpredictable decision making on both sides of the
border, both countries have politicised water in an
Around the world, there are plenty of examples where
attempt to fulfill their hydrological needs.
tensions are high. For instance, since 2007, diverging
interests between upstream and downstream Moreover, the politics surrounding Kashmir has also
countries have brought negotiations pertaining to the had a significant impact on the water relations between
Nile River Basin to a standstill, pitting Egypt (and to a Pakistan and India. Since 2019, India has fast tracked
lesser extent, Sudan) against upstream countries, the building of dams on the Chenab, Jhelum and Ravi
especially Ethiopia. Similarly, Afghanistan has been rivers. It is hypothesised that in the long run, India
making efforts to harness the waters of the Helmand plans to turn the illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir
River, in an attempt to begin post-conflict region into an energy exporter, while using hydropower
reconstruction. The Iranian government to generate employment in the area. Such
perceives Afghanistan’s activities projects are in line with India’s
as threats to water security. broader plan to fully integrate
Similarly, the conflict over Kashmir into the region.
the Indus Waters Basin,
Following the 2016 Uri
threatens to destabilise
terrorist attack, Indian
the South Asian
Prime Minister
region.
Narendra Modi
According to UN proclaimed that
Water, “blood and water
“Transboundary can’t flow together”,
waters account and temporarily
for 60 percent of suspended the
the world’s Indus Commission
freshwater while setting up a
flows. 153 high-level task
countries have force to evaluate the
territory within at treaty. Pakistan
least one of the replied to this threat
286 transboundary by stating that any
river and lake basins attempt by India to
and 592 transboundary tamper with the flow of
aquifer systems.” At the water would be perceived as
same time, only 32 an act of war. This threat
countries have by India was repeated in
operational 2019, following a terrorist
arrangements and incident in Indian occupied
institutional Kashmir.
mechanisms on the
In light of the mounting
sharing of these
security threats
international waters.
associated with water
sharing and scarcity, it
is essential that mechanisms are in place to enhance
cooperation among riparian states. One crucial method
Infographics
of improving cooperation between the two countries is
for third parties to play a more active role in the Indus
Waters dynamic. Intervention by third parties is an
efficient and effective tool for dispute resolution.
Water scarcity and the threat it poses to international
peace has brought the issue of cooperation among
riparian countries to the attention of all national and
international stakeholders, such as the United Nations
and the World Bank. Hence, the threat to peace has
forced third parties to become involved in and play a
more active role in solving conflicts associated with
transboundary watercourses.
With regards to the Indus Waters Treaty, the World
Bank plays a key role in the dispute resolution process
Bank plays a more active role in ensuring water
cooperation between the two countries, especially in
light of the increasing water scarcity in the South Asian
region.
As the issue of water scarcity becomes an increasingly
global concern, riparian countries are tilting towards
having institutional mechanisms in place for effective
and swift resolution of disputes.
Research has established that a precedent of
cooperation between stakeholders, through the
workings of institutional mechanisms such as treaties
and inter-governmental bodies can reduce the risk of
conflict over watercourses. It has been proven that
once institutional capacity is created and mechanisms
put in place, cooperation over shared waters continues
in a streamlined fashion even in times of adversarial
relations between riparian countries.
Enhancing institutional capacity, through the formation
of bilateral and multilateral treaties and the creation of
river basin commissions and organisations has
become a favoured approach in the management of
transboundary watercourses. The same can be seen in
the case of the Indus, where the Commission is
charged with serving “as the regular channel of
communication on all matters relating to the
implementation of the Treaty.” Historically, the ability of
both Commissioners to communicate independently,
irrespective of the political situation, has been seen as
one of the main reasons for the success of the Treaty.
However, in recent times, the workings of the
Commission have been overshadowed by political
considerations.
With regards to the Indus River Basin, water demand,
water availability and aging water infrastructure are on
a collision course, which will be made worse by
uncertainties associated with climate change. In light
of this it is essential that cooperation between Pakistan
and India improves for the stability of the entire region.
© THE NATION
 The Myth of the Global
Shannon K. O’Neil
A constant and largely unquestioned refrain in foreign scholars at the NYU Stern School of Business
policy is that the world has globalized. Closets are full concluded, “If one pair of countries is half as distant as
of clothes stitched in other countries; electronics and another otherwise similar pair of countries, this
cars are often assembled far from where consumers greater physical proximity alone would be expected to
live. U.S. investment flows into Asian markets, and increase the merchandise trade between the closer
Indians decamp to the United States for graduate pair by more than three times.”
school. The numbers show the magnitude of
Companies’ forays abroad have been more regional
international exchange. Trade among all countries
than global, as well. A study of the Fortune Global 500,
hovers around $20 trillion, a nearly tenfold increase
a list of the world’s largest companies, shows that two
from 1980. International capital flows also grew
of every three dollars of their sales come from their
exponentially during that period, from $500 billion a
home regions. A study of 365 prominent multinationals
year to well over $4 trillion. And nearly five times as
found that just nine of them were truly global, meaning
many people are traveling across borders compared
that Asia, Europe, and North America each accounted
with four decades ago.

It is, however, misleading to claim that this flow of for at least 20 percent of their sales.
goods and services and people is always global in Additionally, the oft-repeated term “global supply
scale. Globalization, as commonly understood, is chains” is a misnomer. The making of things across
mostly a myth; the reality is far closer to borders tends to be even more regional than the buying
regionalization. When companies, supply chains, and and selling of finished products: the pieces and parts
individuals go abroad, they don’t go just anywhere. that come together in modern manufacturing are more
More often than not, they stay fairly close to home.
likely to be shipped between neighboring countries
Consider trade. If long distances didn’t affect than from farther away.
international sales, the typical journey for any given
purchase would be some 5,300 miles (the average International capital flows are also more regional than
distance between two randomly selected countries). global. Cross-border buyers of stocks, bonds, and
Instead, half of what is sold abroad travels less than other financial instruments don’t invest as far away as
3,000 miles, not much farther than a flight across the one would expect given how global their options are,
United States, and certainly not far enough to cross on average going no more than the distance between
oceans. A study by the logistics company DHL and Tokyo and Singapore. Foreign direct investment tends
to follow trade. Over half of all cross-border financing
circulates solely within the European Union. And And it is not only cargo that can be delayed or lost when
lending, borrowing, and foreign direct investment in trade takes place over great distances. Even with
Asia by Asian banks and companies is on the rise. virtually free calls, video, and file sharing, the inherent
difficulty of communicating and coordinating across
People tend to orient their lives regionally, as well.
space and time can add to the costs of doing business.
Most people never leave their own countries. And for
Language and cultural cues vary by country, and these
those who do travel abroad, well over half never leave
differences often grow with distance. (This is one
their regions. The vast majority of travelers taking
reason that a quarter of trade happens among
European vacations are European. The same goes for
countries that share a language.) Legal codes and
people in Asia and North America. Those who move
administrative norms also tend to be more similar the
permanently abroad also tend to stick close to their
closer countries are, eliminating the need for duplicate
countries of origin; the majority don’t leave their
teams of lawyers, accountants, and human resources
immediate region. And although students who venture
specialists. And the intangible but vital task of finding
internationally tend to go farther than other travelers,
things in common and building trust and understanding
40 percent don’t leave the geographic area in which
for teamwork can get harder as the distance between
they were born.
people grows. The oft-repeated term “global supply
Over half the international flows of goods, money, chains” is a misnomer.
information, and people occurs within three main
Trade pacts as well tend to be regional. Although the
regional hubs: Asia, Europe, and North America. The
1990s saw the creation of the World Trade Organization
economic rise of China, South Korea, Taiwan, and
(WTO) and the expansion of its membership and
Vietnam began with regional investments and inputs.
oversight powers, what has been as important, if not
Eastern Europe’s fast-paced growth came from linking
more so, over the last 30 years has been the
to western Europe. Between 1993 and 2007, Mexico’s
proliferation of bilateral and multilateral free-trade
economy more than doubled in size, thanks in large
agreements, which tend to involve countries in the
part to the North American Free Trade Agreement
same region. European countries turned first to each
(NAFTA), reached in 1993 with Canada and the United
other for trade. Brazil joined with Argentina, Paraguay,
States.
and Uruguay. After reaching a bilateral trade deal with
The overlooked reality of regionalization has Israel, the United States turned to Canada and Mexico
implications for U.S. policy. Although NAFTA was and later to ten other nations in the Western
revised in 2020—it is now the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Hemisphere. Asian nations banded together through
Agreement (USMCA)—the North American hub is still the free-trade area of the Association of Southeast
not as integrated as that of its East Asian and European Asian Nations and later the Regional Comprehensive
counterparts. In industries for which North American Economic Partnership (RCEP). Global arrangements
regional supply chains developed and solidified, such such as the Comprehensive and Progressive
as vehicles and aerospace, local production maintained Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the
its edge. But in other sectors, including electronics and successor to a pact that was engineered by Washington
textiles, North America’s more limited regionalization but that the United States later abandoned, are so far
led whole industries to move wherever regional links more the exception than the rule.
provided a leg up.
Companies see differences in their bottom lines
Ideally, the United States would be inking international depending on their geographic dispersion. Many have
trade deals to expand its market access and pursue its gone abroad to boost their earnings, benefiting from
geopolitical aims, such as countering China’s rise. That the cross-country advantages of differential skills and
does not appear politically possible at the moment, wage costs. Yet go too far, and costs begin to rise again.
however. A more viable policy would be to fortify and In 2010, an academic study of 123 U.S. multinationals
tap the United States’ regional network. That would found that returns on assets improved as companies
allow Washington to access a broader swath of the expanded internationally within their region but
global marketplace and stave off losing more of its declined when they ventured farther from home. The
competitive advantage to countries that are expanding management consulting group McKinsey & Company
their own regional footprints. dubs this “the globalization penalty,” finding in a survey
of 500 multinational corporations that earnings
Why Regional Trumps Global diminished as operations spread out. It seems the
The major reason networks skew regional is simple: optimal distance for private-sector profits is a
geography matters. Even with massive container ships, Goldilocks zone: not too close but not too far.
moving things across oceans still costs time and
money. A transatlantic voyage adds a week to delivery,
The Rule of Three
and a trip across the Pacific Ocean adds a month before The strength of the regional networks that a country
parts or goods show up in U.S. warehouses and belongs to are therefore particularly important. And in
factories. That means producers and stores need to this regard, European countries are well situated.
maintain larger inventories of goods that come from far Although Brexit and mounting populist Euroskepticism
away. may make the EU appear fragile, the European
continent is, in fact, the most integrated region in the to consider bringing production closer to home.
world. The deep ties that connect its countries are Governments have suddenly become keen to exercise
rooted in over a half century of diplomatic bargains that more control over international supply chains for
created a single market, a common passport, and a pharmaceutical and medical products. At the same
shared currency. Today, Europeans make things time, ongoing technological innovation has made it
together and sell to one another, with nearly two-thirds easier for the private sector to expand production in
of EU trade staying within the union. Similarly, internal different geographic neighborhoods. Automation, in
European investment exceeds that from the rest of the particular, is making far-flung factories and supply
world by 50 percent. chains less vital and less profitable than in the past. As
sensors increasingly monitor assembly lines and
Asia is not far behind in its integration. According to the
equipment and robots and other forms of
Asian Development Bank, the proportion of the region’s
mechanization take over many manufacturing
trade that takes place internally has risen from 45
processes and tasks, wages make up a smaller part of
percent in 1990 to nearly 60 percent today, surpassing
operating costs. That development has diminished, at
North America and closing in on Europe. Decades of
least in part, the once strong draw of locations with
export-oriented development propelled by Asian
cheap labor.
business leaders and backed by bureaucrats tied
country after country together through production New ways of making things, such as 3-D or
supply chains. Asian countries make things together additive printing, are also changing
and increasingly buy from one another: nearly manufacturing processes, making small-
one-third of Asian finished goods batch production runs more affordable
are sold to consumers in the and reducing the need for specialized
region. factories. These advances lower the
numbers of workers that companies
Extreme weather will
need and change the skill sets they
upend logistics as ports
seek: in many sectors, skilled (and
flood and rails buckle.
higher-paid) technicians have become
North America’s far more important than line
countries have also workers. That shift diminishes
deepened their the advantages of economies of
economic ties to one scale, enabling at least some
another. In the wake of companies to move production
NAFTA, trade between closer to consumers without
Canada, Mexico, and the sacrificing profits.
United States rose
The value of time is growing, too.
fourfold, outpacing
As consumers expect faster
that between those
delivery and near-immediate
countries and ones
gratification, the longer lead times
outside the region.
for goods produced
Investment, too,
by factories
became more regional,
thousands of miles away can
particularly for Mexico,
mean lost sales. The popularity of customized products
where since NAFTA’s signing in 1993, one of every two
also makes mass-producing facilities abroad less
dollars flowing in has come from its neighbors. In
relevant than in the past.
particular, North America’s agricultural and advanced-
manufacturing supply chains expanded and Moreover, demographic shifts are raising the low
strengthened over the course of the 1990s, leading wages that once drew so many companies to
regional commerce to jump by more than a quarter. developing countries. In China, the great migration that
brought over 200 million workers from the hinterlands
This integration didn’t last, however; after China’s 2001
to manufacturing centers has largely ended. After
accession to the WTO, regional exchanges dwindled,
decades of strict family planning, more workers are
falling from around 47 percent of the continent’s total
now exiting the labor market than entering it. This trend
trade in 2000 to a low of 39 percent in 2009, before
looks set to accelerate: the national workforce is
recovering slightly to around 40 percent by 2018. Still,
expected to shrink by 100 million people over the next
although North America’s internal connections remain
20 years. Working-age populations are contracting
significantly less robust than those in Asia and Europe,
throughout much of Asia, limiting labor pools and
they far outstrip those among the countries of Africa,
driving up wage rates across electronics and other
Latin America, the Middle East, and South Asia—
supply chains. In Europe, working-age populations are
regions where less than a quarter of trade and
in decline or appear to be headed that way. Millions of
investment occurs between neighbors.
Hungarians, Romanians, and other eastern Europeans
During the COVID-19 pandemic, border closures and have headed to their western neighbors in search of
rising transportation costs have prompted companies better pay and opportunities, and an influx of
migrants—and, more recently, refugees—is only partly Instead, regional accords have stepped in to govern
replenishing workforces. international trade. The USMCA regulates North
America’s trade ties and arbitrates disputes. In Asia,
Another factor curbing globalization is climate change.
the RCEP now governs commercial exchanges among
Extreme weather will increasingly upend logistics as
15 countries, removing most tariffs and combining
ports flood, rails buckle, and airplanes are more
rules of origin requirements to favor regional supply
frequently grounded by storms. Longer supply chains
chains. The African Continental Free Trade Area
increase these vulnerabilities and potential costs.
agreement aspires to do something similar, replacing
Meanwhile, policies designed to slow the planet’s
a tangle of bilateral rules and regulations with a single,
warming by cutting emissions are raising global
almost continent-wide commercial system. Regional

transportation prices, incentivizing companies to accords now set the rules for more than half the
manufacture goods closer to consumer markets. world’s trade.
Regionalization, not globalization, will set the
The Power of Politics corporate agenda in the coming decades.
It’s not just technological and demographic shifts and Geopolitical tensions threaten to fragment
climate change that will curb globalization and favor international commerce even further. Economic
more regionalization; political change is playing a role, competition has become a pillar of great-power rivalry.
as well. After decades of opening up to the world With industrial policy back in vogue, many countries,
economy, many countries are pulling back. The Global including the United States, are throwing up
Trade Alert, a nonprofit that tracks and collates trade protectionist barriers. The U.S. government has
policies from official sources around the world, has identified semiconductors, large-capacity batteries,
calculated that since the 2008 global financial crisis, pharmaceuticals, and dozens of critical minerals as
new protectionist measures have outpaced liberalizing vital to national security and is now implementing
ones three to one. policies and spending tens of billions of dollars to
Meanwhile, the WTO has been sidelined. It is no longer expand stockpiles, beef up manufacturing capacity at
the forum to negotiate new trade rules. Its efforts to home and in friendly nations, and redraw global supply
reshape global trade ended in 2015, when the so-called chains in these designated sectors. Countries
Doha Round of talks sputtered to a close. More niche everywhere are drawing up their own lists, some of
efforts, such as attempts to reduce fishing subsidies in them adding information and data flows, fragmenting
mostly rich nations, are struggling. Since 2018, the WTO cross-border flows of services. As governments work
has been unable to punish countries that break the to reshape the business environment across more
rules, as the United States, under both the Trump and industries, they are also implicitly or explicitly asking
the Biden administrations, has refused to approve new other countries to choose sides through export
judges to its Appellate Body. controls and other mechanisms. This will further limit
international ties.
The push to reshore critical products and services is cost of U.S. exports has risen in relative terms.
underway almost everywhere. But what most countries Because of the RCEP, cars assembled in Japan and
will find is that outside of a few highly sensitive or vital South Korea no longer face the double-digit tariffs that
products, companies can’t or won’t bring production U.S.-manufactured alternatives still confront in the
back home. Those that try to do so are more likely to go region, and Chinese steel, chemicals, and machines all
bust as costs rise and innovation falls. The most face lower levies than options made in the United
probable scenario is that multinationals will turn away States.
from globalized supply chains in favor of shorter, more
In an ideal world, the United States would pursue a
duplicative regional ones. Regionalization, not
robust and comprehensive trade agenda. Joining the
globalization, will set the corporate agenda in the
CPTPP; restarting negotiations over the Transatlantic
coming decades.
Trade and Investment Partnership, which would have
America's Advantage linked the U.S. and EU markets; and revitalizing the
WTO would open up more markets to U.S. goods and
Many of these technological, demographic, and policy services and reinforce more transparent, fair, and
shifts favor the United States. The declining importance environmentally friendly ways of doing business. The
of cheap wages and the rising role of skilled labor United States would also do well to regain its
should advantage better-paid U.S. workers. A trove of leadership in international standard-setting bodies,
intellectual property and intangible assets, including restoring its traditional role as a rule-maker and not
several of the new technologies transforming work and just rule-taker.
workplaces, will allow many U.S.-based companies to
reap outsize benefits. Abundant financing means more But until the politics of trade change in the United
discoveries, more patents, and more products. The States, none of that is likely to occur. In the meantime,
United States also boasts clear laws and regulatory Washington can benefit by turning to its neighbors.
regimes—which is why so many investors prefer Canada and Mexico have preferred access to many
stocks and bonds issued under New York law—and a global markets where the United States pays full fare.
generally receptive and entrepreneurial business Their respective portfolios of free-trade agreements
environment. For all these reasons, the U.S. economy each cover some 1.5 billion consumers, representing
should fare well in this next round of globalization. nearly 60 percent of global GDP. Feeding into Canadian
or Mexican manufacturing supply chains can give U.S.
Still, Washington’s advantages aren’t immutable. Other producers and parts makers preferential access to the
countries are also investing in education, research, and world’s consumers, which they currently lack on their
development and advancing their own technologies and own. For instance, Mexican-made cars sold in Europe
national corporate champions. Moreover, the next dodge the ten percent tariff U.S.-made models face,
billion new buyers of cars, clothes, and computers will lowering the sticker price by some $3,000 on a Ford
be in Asia, where middle classes are growing faster Focus and by over $4,000 on an Audi Q5, a savings that
than in any other region. To tap into this growth, U.S. makes it hard for U.S. carmakers to compete. The
multinationals and exporters will need to adapt. opposite is true for U.S.-based parts makers: Mexican
To effectively compete, the United States should pursue plants can source up to 40 percent of their Europe-
reforms at home to take better care of its people and bound models from suppliers in countries that are not
workers and to prepare them for a more fluid and part of the bargain. That means imported Mexican-
volatile economic future. This will require expanding made cars sold in France or Germany also keep U.S.
safety nets, ensuring labor rights, and improving factories humming.
educational opportunities that upgrade Americans’ In today’s more regionally focused world, exports are
skills. Domestic infrastructure also needs an upgrade more competitive when countries make them together.
to lower logistical costs that weigh down American- Much of Germany’s touted international commercial
made goods. The $1.2 trillion set aside in the 2021 success has resulted from its regional manufacturing
Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act to pay for ties. By seeding plants and operations throughout
improvements to highways, bridges, electric grids, and eastern Europe, Germany’s private companies—the
broadband is a good start. More public spending for famed Mittelstand—have bolstered the country’s
basic science and research and development should manufacturing base and created jobs at home as their
follow to usher in cutting-edge scientific products have thrived on global markets. China’s
breakthroughs and technologies. spectacular rise and export dynamism similarly has
In addition to getting its own house in order, the United depended largely on its incorporation into regional
States needs a more strategic approach to trade. One supply chains.
of the country’s challenges is the eroding price If the United States wants to help its companies
competitiveness of its exports in an increasing number replicate these successes, it also needs a regional
of international markets. The countries to which the approach. Regionalization brings competitive
United States enjoys preferred access account for less advantages that a single country, even one as large and
than 10 percent of the world’s GDP, and few of them are wealthy as the United States, cannot match on its own.
among the fastest-growing markets. As other To make products as good, affordable, and fast as the
countries have formed and joined trade accords, the competition, U.S. companies need to be able to source
parts from many places and complete some tasks and critical supply chains, its neighbors can help.
processes in other countries. Geographic diversification can offset the risks that
natural disasters and accidents pose to stockpiles and
A regional commercial strategy will also help more
production capacity. Regional manufacturing can lower
work stay on the continent—and thus in the United
the public financial burden of subsidies, as goods are
States. When part of production is located in Canada or
more likely to attain a higher quality at lower cost when
Mexico, U.S. suppliers are more likely to keep or gain
drawing on a cross-border network of suppliers.
contracts and remain in business than when
production moves overseas. And when orders rise, so North America’s regional trade has recovered, albeit
do jobs all along the supply chain. The Organization for slightly, from a 2009 nadir of just 39 cents of every
Economic Cooperation and Development estimates dollar thanks to expanding textile, machinery, and
that, on average, nearly 40 percent of the value of U.S. produce supply chains. But no North American leader
imports from Mexico is created in the United States. For is prioritizing a continental commercial future. Mexico
Canada, that figure is just over 25 percent. Conversely, is turning inward, with energy and natural resource
U.S. input into imports from the rest of the world nationalism threatening its manufacturing base.
averages just 4.4 Canada is looking to
percent, reflecting diversify its
how few U.S.-based international
suppliers are part of commercial ties by
the global production reaping the benefit of
process. trade deals with the
United Kingdom and
To enhance North
the European Union
America’s
and in Asia as a
regionalization, the
member of the CPTPP.
continent needs to
And the Biden
improve its linking
administration is
infrastructure. This
guided by another
means adding land
repeated but
crossings, upgrading
unsubstantiated
thoroughfares that
refrain, that NAFTA
lead to and away from
and other trade
the border, expanding
agreements hurt,
rail lines and depots,
rather than help, U.S.
and investing in people
workers. That is
and technology to staff
misguided: most of the
and to support ports of
studies trashing
entry. With faster
NAFTA don’t calculate
connections and lower
the better-paid export-
logistical costs, manufacturers in North America can
oriented jobs gained as a result of more favorable
make products that are more globally competitive.
terms in the United States’ two biggest export markets;
A more competitive North American economy is nor do they consider how lower North American
possible. production costs kept industries, such as auto
As parts and components move between the three manufacturing, alive and even allowed them to thrive in
countries, workers must be able to follow. More and the face of global price competition from vehicles
easier legal work-based migration paths are needed to manufactured in other, rival regional hubs.
make the region as a whole more productive, and they Through integration, a more competitive North
will require transferable credentials, licenses, and American economy is possible. Three decades of freer
diplomas; business visas; and longer-term migration trade, the existence of sophisticated supply chains in
avenues. Greater coordination in education and training specific sectors, and widespread cross-border ties
can help address gaps in skill and improve work between communities and workers due to the
environments to ensure that North America’s movement of tens of millions of people could be
population growth, already a bright spot for the region, energized and expanded. But deeper, more sustainable
continues. Educational exchanges, language learning, regionalization will also require a change in mindset. It
and cross-border apprenticeships and skill will require recognizing that the United States’ middle
development programs can all help build a continental and working class would prosper more from
workforce better able to entice new businesses and engagement in the global economy than they would
investment. Stiffening migration barriers will just lead from a retreat to the domestic market. Americans
more firms to go elsewhere. could gain more jobs, profits, and financial security if
And as the U.S. government rolls out industrial policies their country decided to take what is on offer: a slice of
to increase the resilience of and access to a host of a large and growing economic pie. © FOREIGN AFFAIRS
 The Danger of Conflict in Sudan
Should not be Underestimated
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
The risks and threats that a protracted and heightened operations in more than one country, as well as to use
conflict in Sudan can pose, not only for this African cyberterrorism to conduct attacks on various
nation but also for the Horn of Africa region and governmental, nongovernmental and private sector
beyond, should not be underestimated. entities. They will also likely attempt to find more allies,
regardless of their religious nature, as long as the
First of all, it is important to point out that increased
allies share the group’s ideology and objectives.
violence and conflict in Sudan can provide a ripe
Examples include some terror groups that were
environment for terror groups to emerge, mobilize,
operating not only in Iraq, but also in Syria and other
recruit, grow and gain power.
countries.
The modus operandi of terrorist groups such as Al-
The other vital issue is that the number of terror and
Qaeda is generally anchored in efforts to further
militia groups will continue to increase as conflicts
destabilize a country or region and create chaos,
escalate. The world witnessed in the last decade how
providing a good space that the terror groups can
the protracted conflicts in Syria and Iraq led to the rise
exploit and prosper in. We have witnessed this
and prominence of terrorist groups such as Daesh,
phenomenon in the Middle East, where some terror
which made remarkable advances and controlled a
groups have attempted to use conflict in order to divide
significant amount of territory.
communities, pursue a sectarian agenda, capitalize on
people’s fears and sow discord between Shiite and Sudan, in particular, is in a very vulnerable position
Sunni communities in order to gain power and control. when it comes to being exploited by terror groups
A second problem is that terrorist groups might be Sudan, in particular, is in a very vulnerable position
capable of finding some state or nonstate allies that are when it comes to being exploited by terror groups due
willing to provide finances, military assistance and to the country’s socioeconomic status, its lack of
advice, intelligence and training. This further increases powerful security apparatuses, its widespread poverty
the threat they pose in the region and on the global and its location and geography.
level.
In addition, Sudan also lacks effective
Through the prism of the realist school of thought in counterterrorism strategies, such as the productive
political science, whenever a conflict erupts in a policies that are implemented in the Gulf nations,
country, states react in one of a number of ways. Some including Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As a 2020 report
may view the conflict and instability from the by the Rand Organization explained: “Sudan’s location
perspective of political opportunism. As a result, they makes it a potential gateway for linking hubs of militant
may support some specific groups and intervene activity in north, central, and east Africa. This is
directly or indirectly through financial, military, particularly true given that movement across the
advisory, intelligence or political support to shift the country’s borders is not difficult. Most land crossings
balance of power and use the conflict for their own are highly informal, or, due to their sheer length,
geopolitical, strategic and geoeconomic interests. unmonitored. Where official posts do exist, they are
generally poorly staffed and underequipped, relying
Some other countries will attempt to resolve the
mostly on paper ledgers to record the details of those
conflict diplomatically, such as Saudi Arabia’s initiative
who enter and exit the country. Militant groups could
in Sudan — the Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to
exploit these dynamics to establish rear bases that are
Protect the Civilians of Sudan. Other states may only
used to support and facilitate the movement of
try to prevent the spillover of the conflict into their own
operatives across various theaters of conflict.”
territory.
Besides terrorism, a second threat is linked to the
After gaining power and momentum, terrorist groups
humanitarian facet of the Sudan conflict, which
can push to take over or have a significant say in any
includes the deprivation and hunger it has inflicted on
new political establishments in the country. Other
people of all ages.
possible objectives include establishing supremacy,
the advancement of hegemonic ambitions, achieving The third important issue and risk is the massive
specific ideological and foreign policy objectives, and displacement that such conflicts cause. The escalation
exporting their ideology to other countries. In addition, of the conflict in Sudan is already having severe
some terror groups are used for asymmetrical repercussions not only for the Sudanese people, but
warfare. also for the stability and security of several other
nations in the region.
Having found a safe harbor, terror groups can also
create complex networks in order to facilitate their
In a nutshell, the threats that the Sudan conflict can resolution to the crisis in Sudan. The longer a conflict
create should not be underestimated. One of the continues, the more difficult it becomes to chart a path
biggest threats is that it could create a ripe that will bring peace, stability and security back to the
environment for terror groups to gain power and inflict affected nation.
damage not only on Sudan but also beyond its borders.
© ARAB NEWS
This is why it is crucial for the international community
to immediately act in order to find a permanent
 A Decade of CPEC
Dr. Hasnain Javed
While CPEC has been oft criticized for entrapping and keep their heads high.Is this huge debt an indication
Pakistan in circular debt and paying no dividends, Dr. of cynical Chinese negligence or due to our own political
Hasnain Javed contends that critics have spoken too instability, bureaucratic incapability and economic
soon. CPEC must not be seen as a panacea for all of malfeasance? The development of labor in my opinion will
Pakistan's ills; Pakistan needs to get its own house in lead to a domino effect that will trickle down to the
order to reap the program's full benefits.The year 2013 Special Economic Zones (SEZs) attracting FDI, local
was a landmark year for the Sino-Pak friendship and it businesses and another of young talented professionals.
took a new strategic turn with the beginning of the China Looking into the “debt” conundrum surrounding the CPEC,
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Part of China’s one the West remains a huge opposer. In 2013, when CPEC
world – One Belt One Road Initiative or the BRI; CPEC has was initially initiated, Pakistan owed China $4.1 billion. By
been termed as a “game changer” for South Asia. The idea March 2020, however, this debt had increased by 185%,
of uniting the world through their economic prowess is from $4.1 billion to $11.8 billion owed to China, making it
one of the most ambitious projects President Xi could Pakistan’s one of the largest lenders. But is this huge
have undertaken. Many associated it BRI & CPEC as the debt an indication of cynical Chinese negligence or due to
modern-day East India Company, an imperialistic our own political instability, bureaucratic incapability and
takeover decoyed in the name of economic unity.Here we economic malfeasance?
are, a decade later skeptics continue to question CPEC,
Pakistan’s leadership has perhaps never understood the
western pressure mounts on Pakistan, foreign terrorism
real potential of the CPEC that will become a trading
hinders the progress – yet slowly but surely CPEC inches
gateway for more than 65 countries, representing 60% of
towards completion. As the second phase begins amidst
the world-population and 40% of the global GDP. We
all these trials, many are forced to rethink, recalculate
need to more sincere with the Long-term Plan (LTP) of
and remind themselves of the commitment Pakistan
the Vision 2025 that the Ministry of Planning and
made for its economic independence. While I walk along
Development so carefully drafted and undertake all
the Yangtze River in Jiangsu, China the most awe-
future execution with the following in mind.
inspiring view is not the river, but the skyscrapers and
mammoth high-rise in its surroundings – a view Tough decisions will and must be taken. Bureaucratic
envisioned for Gwadar.My aim is not to look at CPEC from reforms are necessary to become effective enablers.
purely a project management’s perspective but to piece International pressure must not be succumbed to, and
together the glitches that truly continue to undermine the the false and negative propaganda against the CPEC must
true potential of the project. Soon after its announcement be neutralized. Government and private stakeholders
began a string of foreign negative propaganda against the need to be more transparent and seamless in their
CPEC which primarily claimed that CPEC has been operations.
designed to rob Pakistan off its natural resources, The last decade is a stark reminder of the strategic
burdens the taxpayers, has increased the IPP debt and importance Pakistan holds in the region and CPEC offers
the import bill, due to machinery import, and the sufficient proof. CPEC encompasses the Xinjiang Uygur
infrastructural development is a financial trap for the Autonomous Region in western China and the entirety of
country. The foundation for these criticism stems from Pakistan with a “core zone” and “radiation zone”
the understanding that while Pakistan bears the structure. The corridor traverses key node cities,
developmental cost, the Chinese continue to employee including Kashghar (Kashi in Chinese), Atushi, Tumshuq,
their labor and machinery on site – the possible earning Shule, Shufu, Akto, and Tashkurgan Tajik in China, as well
may not match the investment. as Gilgit, Peshawar, DI Khan, Islamabad, Lahore, Multan,
My response to all these critics would be that they have Quetta, Sukkur, Hyderabad, Karachi, and Gwadar in
spoken too soon and on weak grounds. With the Pakistan. The development of western China is in
beginning of the second and most crucial phase of the accordance with China’s longstanding “Go West” policy,
project, a huge investment will be made in the workforce which aims to eliminate developmental disparities
transformation through adequate skill development and between China’s eastern coastal regions and its
skill enhancement. One must understand that the underdeveloped mountainous regions. Therefore, we
Chinese workforce is extremely efficient, professional must shun all the negativity about CPEC, continue to
and proficient in technology, a skill that we are still disarm the enemies and remain steadfast on the path of
acquiring. The capacity building of the Pakistani economic growth and independence.
workforce in technology and Chinese language would This $62 billion project, with a 3,000-kilometer network
help embark the youth on an upward trajectory where of railways, oil and gas pipelines and renewable energy
they will not only become an integral part of the economic projects, is a decade long testament to Sino-Pak vision of
engine, but drive personal growth both financially and economic independence and the growth that will follow.
professionally. This is how the Pakistani youth will walk
with the one of the world’s economically strong nations © FRIDAY TIMES
 A Rising China: Contender to US
Supremacy
Ayesha Zahoor
The Shifting Status Quo developing nations. A notable example is China’s
“Poverty Reduction Pilot Project” implemented in Laos,
Pankaj Ghemawat, an Indian-American economist, Myanmar, and Cambodia. This endeavor strives to uplift
business strategist, and professor, posited, “The East is the economic conditions in these nations by promoting
progressively showing its dominance over the West in the adoption of advanced agricultural technologies
terms of knowledge production and international among farmers, thereby enhancing their productivity.
trade.” This assertion by Ghemawat is evident in the
21st century, as we observe the influence of the rising As part of this partnership, China utilizes the natural
China, the re-emergence of Russia, and the proactive resources available in these countries, which include
transition of Middle Eastern nations from Western abundant reserves of oil, gas, minerals, and precious
dominance. stones. Furthermore, China is actively contributing to
the economic growth of various African states. By the
The mounting influence of China and Russia over global conclusion of 2021, China had deployed 81 agro-
political dynamics is poised to upend the status quo, technological teams comprising 808 experts to various
akin to executing a chess move in reverse. Significant African countries, affirming its commitment to
Middle Eastern powers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, supporting agricultural advancements.
Iraq, and other nations are also experiencing
transformations as they detach themselves from Moreover, China actively assisted in establishing 22
Western influence. The proxy agro-technological pilot projects, specifically designed
conflicts orchestrated by the United States in various to enhance crop yields. This technology transfer
regions to manipulate internal politics have ultimately extended beyond Africa to Asian nations like Pakistan,
impeded the advancement of these nations. Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, with the objective of
instilling confidence among farmers regarding their
Is China Replacing the US? crop productivity. The generous assistance of China in
these areas has significantly contributed to its rising
Countries have experienced significant devastation due
global influence. Furthermore, China implemented an
to unquestioningly adhering to America’s self-serving
interest-free loan program for developing countries
policies. In contrast, China is actively engaged in
through the Asia Development Bank (ADB).
fostering global cooperation through its captivating
initiatives that seek to bolster the progress of
The economic support provided by China to various technology, and advanced manufacturing. By assuming
nations has bolstered their alliances with China. In a leadership role in these sectors, China aims to shape
contrast, the United States has also extended economic global technological standards and gain a competitive
assistance to countries in previous decades; it often edge.
comes with conditions that align with American
Furthermore, China has been allocating resources to
interests. For instance, during the War on Terror, the
modernize its military capabilities, aiming to augment
United States engaged numerous Asian, African,
both its regional and global influence. Through the
Central Asian, and Middle Eastern countries in this
projection of power and safeguarding its interests,
endeavor.
China is expanding its military capabilities, including its
However, as nations began to comprehend America’s naval forces and advanced weaponry, giving it greater
true intentions of exerting influence, they distanced strategic leverage. China’s participation in political
themselves from this agenda. Ultimately, Afghanistan dynamics extends beyond the economic sphere. For
also freed itself from the constraints imposed by instance, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe is
American control. After the United States’ withdrawal contemplating China as a potential intermediary to
from Afghanistan and Kabul’s takeover by the Taliban, facilitate a ceasefire, given the substantial
China and Russia have stepped in to provide political, repercussions of the ongoing war on Europe.
educational, and developmental assistance to
Moreover, China and Russia have acted as mediators
Afghanistan. China, in particular, has expanded its Belt
to alleviate tensions between Riyadh and Tehran. In a
and Road Initiative (BRI) to include Afghanistan.
similar manner, Russia and China also contributed to
China is also actively engaging with Central Asian and resolving Syria’s internal issues, leading to the
Eastern European states. For instance, the China- reinstatement of Syria within the Arab League. These
Central & Eastern European Countries’ (CEEC) third instances serve as strong evidence highlighting China’s
expo was recently held in Ningbo, located in East growing influence in the global arena.
China’s Zhejiang province. This trade expo is expected
To diminish the swat of the USA in the region, China is
to create a win-win situation for all participating states.
proactively involved in diplomatic endeavors to
The Rising China and Its Ties with Saudi broaden its influence. It establishes diplomatic ties,
fosters economic partnerships, and offers
Arabia developmental assistance to other nations.
Both China and Russia are actively exerting their Additionally, China endeavors to enhance its soft power
influence in the Middle East by initiating various and shape global narratives by promoting its culture,
projects in Saudi Arabia. Notably, the Saudi Vision 2030 language, and values through initiatives like Confucius
aligns with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, facilitating Institutes.
a strong partnership between the two countries. China
Furthermore, the rising China seeks to exert its
has made substantial investments in the
influence within the Asian Region and addresses
infrastructure, energy, technology, and manufacturing
territorial disputes with neighboring countries – such
sectors in Saudi Arabia. Chinese companies have
as those in the South China Sea – utilizing diverse
played a significant role in the construction of major
strategies to assert its claims and extend its control. In
projects like the Riyadh Metro and the Jizan Industrial
addition, China’s growing influence in global politics is
City.
evident in its adoption of Petro-yuan trade with
The Financial Times, a renowned British daily numerous countries. This shift has the potential to
newspaper, recently published that Saudi Arabia is impact the economic landscape and development of the
currently engaged in discussions to become a member United States, potentially reducing its dominance in
of the China-based New Development Bank or “BRICS global trade.
bank.” This move will strengthen the funding options for
Russia, as they are grappling with the consequences of Conclusion
sanctions imposed by the West. This robust The aforementioned developments, combined with
cooperation will greatly bolster the ties between Saudi evolving trade patterns and geopolitical alliances,
Arabia and China. indicate a significant shift in the balance of power
toward the Eastern hemisphere. As the world
Beyond Economy witnesses these transformations, the global order
The rising China has achieved remarkable economic continues to adjust and adapt to the emerging realities
growth over the past few decades to become the shaped by the rising influence of the Eastern
world’s second-largest economy. Moreover, China is hemisphere. It’s important to note that perceptions and
utilizing its economic strength to expand its influence assessments of China’s dominance vary, and the
globally. Besides boosting the economy, China is also effectiveness of its strategies is subject to ongoing
making significant advancements in the realm of debate and geopolitical dynamics.
technology and military modernization to draw level
© PARADIGM SHIFT
with the United States. It places considerable emphasis
on research and development, with notable
investments in areas such as artificial intelligence, 5G
 An Unsettled Alliance
Jonathan Masters
Introduction foreign policy objectives, such as nuclear arms control.
Others favored expansion as a way to extend NATO’s
Founded in 1949 as a bulwark against Soviet security umbrella to the east and consolidate
aggression, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization democratic gains in the former Soviet bloc.
(NATO) remains the pillar of U.S.-Europe military
cooperation. An expanding bloc of NATO allies has European members were also split on the issue. The
taken on a broad range of missions since the close of United Kingdom feared NATO’s expansion would dilute
the Cold War, many well beyond the Euro-Atlantic the alliance, while France believed it would give NATO
region, in countries such as Afghanistan and Libya. (and the United States) too much influence. Paris hoped
to integrate former Soviet states via European
Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, a institutions.
nonmember, in early 2022 has shaken Europe’s
security architecture and prompted a major As a first step, Clinton chose to develop a new NATO
reevaluation of NATO members’ foreign policies and initiative called the Partnership for Peace (PfP), which
defense commitments. The threat from Russia has would be open to all former Warsaw Pact members, as
generated the greatest tensions with the alliance in the well as non-European countries. Seeing this
post-Cold War era. It is driving up defense spending nonmembership framework as a means to allay some

and has pushed some longtime NATO partners, namely

Finland and Sweden, to seek full membership. Finland of Russia’s concerns about alliance expansion, NATO
acceded to the alliance in April 2023. launched PfP at its annual summit in 1994. More than
two dozen countries, including Georgia, Russia, and
A Post–Cold War Pivot Ukraine, joined in the following months.
After the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991, Western However, Clinton soon began speaking publicly [PDF]
leaders intensely debated the direction of the about expanding NATO’s membership, saying in the
transatlantic alliance. Some in the Bill Clinton Czech Republic just days after the launch of PfP that
administration initially opposed expanding NATO, wary “the question is no longer whether NATO will take on
it would upset relations with President Boris Yeltsin’s new members but when and how.” Yeltsin warned
fragile government in Russia and complicate other U.S. Western leaders at a conference later that year that
“Europe, even before it has managed to shrug off the Western leaders at a conference later that year that
legacy of the Cold War, is risking encumbering itself “Europe, even before it has managed to shrug off the
with a cold peace.” legacy of the Cold War, is risking encumbering itself
with a cold peace.”
Beyond Collective Defense
Beyond Collective Defense
Many U.S. officials felt that a post–Cold War vision for
NATO needed to look beyond its core defense Many U.S. officials felt that a post–Cold War vision for
commitments—Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty NATO needed to look beyond its core defense
states that “an armed attack against one or more commitments—Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty
[member states] in Europe or North America shall be states that “an armed attack against one or more
considered an attack against them all”—and focus on [member states] in Europe or North America shall be
confronting challenges outside its membership. “The considered an attack against them all”—and focus on
common denominator of all the new security problems confronting challenges outside its membership. “The
in Europe is that they all lie beyond NATO’s current common denominator of all the new security problems
borders,” said influential U.S. Senator Richard Lugar in in Europe is that they all lie beyond NATO’s current
a 1993 speech. borders,” said influential U.S. Senator Richard Lugar in
a 1993 speech.
The breakup of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s and the
onset of ethnic conflict tested the alliance on this point The breakup of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s and the
almost immediately. What began as a mission to onset of ethnic conflict tested the alliance on this point
impose a UN-sanctioned no-fly zone over Bosnia and almost immediately. What began as a mission to
Herzegovina evolved into a bombing campaign on impose a UN-sanctioned no-fly zone over Bosnia and
Bosnian Serb forces that many military analysts say Herzegovina evolved into a bombing campaign on
was essential to ending the conflict. In April 1994, Bosnian Serb forces that many military analysts say
during Operation Deny Flight, NATO conducted its first was essential to ending the conflict. In April 1994,
combat operations in its forty-year history, shooting during Operation Deny Flight, NATO conducted its first
down four Bosnian Serb aircraft. combat operations in its forty-year history, shooting
down four Bosnian Serb aircraft.
NATO's Structure
NATO's Structure
Headquartered in Brussels, NATO is a consensus-
based alliance in which decisions must be unanimous. Headquartered in Brussels, NATO is a consensus-
However, individual states or subgroups of allies can based alliance in which decisions must be unanimous.
initiate action outside NATO’s auspices. For instance, However, individual states or subgroups of allies can
the United States, France, and the United Kingdom initiate action outside NATO’s auspices. For instance,
began policing a UN-sanctioned no-fly zone in Libya in the United States, France, and the United Kingdom
early 2011 and, within days, transferred command of the began policing a UN-sanctioned no-fly zone in Libya in
operation to NATO once Turkey’s concerns had been early 2011 and, within days, transferred command of the
allayed. Member states are not required to participate operation to NATO once Turkey’s concerns had been
in every NATO operation; Germany and Poland declined allayed. Member states are not required to participate
to contribute directly to the campaign in Libya. in every NATO operation; Germany and Poland declined
to contribute directly to the campaign in Libya.
NATO’s military structure comprises two strategic
commands: the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers NATO’s military structure comprises two strategic
Europe, located near Mons, Belgium, and the Allied commands: the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers
Command Transformation, located in Norfolk, Virginia. Europe, located near Mons, Belgium, and the Allied
The supreme allied commander Europe oversees all Command Transformation, located in Norfolk, Virginia.
NATO military operations and is always a U.S. flag or The supreme allied commander Europe oversees all
general officer; U.S. Army General Christopher G. NATO military operations and is always a U.S. flag or
Cavoli currently holds this position. Although the general officer; U.S. Army General Christopher G.
alliance has an integrated command, most forces Cavoli currently holds this position. Although the
remain under their respective national authorities until alliance has an integrated command, most forces
NATO operations commence. remain under their respective national authorities until
NATO operations commence.
NATO’s secretary-general, Norwegian politician Jens
Stoltenberg, served two four-year terms as the bloc’s NATO’s secretary-general, Norwegian politician Jens
chief administrator and international envoy. And then Stoltenberg, served two four-year terms as the bloc’s
NATO leaders twice extended his service for an chief administrator and international envoy. And then
additional year (his mandate now runs until September NATO leaders twice extended his service for an
2024) amid the war in Ukraine. The alliance’s principal additional year (his mandate now runs until September
political body is the North Atlantic Council, which is 2024) amid the war in Ukraine. The alliance’s principal
composed of high-level delegates from each member political body is the North Atlantic Council, which is
“the question is no longer whether NATO will take on composed of high-level delegates from each member
new members but when and how.” Yeltsin warned state.
Sharing the Burden for the alliance by signaling that NATO was adapting to
the post–Cold War security environment.
Member states’ primary financial contribution is the
cost of deploying their respective armed forces for NATO commanded over 130,000 troops from more than
NATO-led operations. These expenses are not part of fifty alliance and partner countries at the height of its
the formal NATO budget, which funds alliance commitment in Afghanistan. After thirteen years of
infrastructure, including civilian and military war, ISAF completed its mission in 2014. In 2015, NATO
headquarters, and stands at about $3 billion in 2022. began a noncombat support mission to provide
NATO members were estimated to have collectively training, funding, and other assistance to the Afghan
spent more than $1 trillion on defense [PDF] in 2022. government.
The United States accounted for roughly 70 percent of The United States and NATO allies withdrew their
this, up from about half during the Cold War. remaining forces—about 10,000 troops—from
NATO members have committed to spending 2 percent Afghanistan in 2021, bringing the alliance’s twenty-year
of their annual gross domestic product (GDP) on military operation to a close. Although a slight majority
defense by 2024, and just nine of the thirty members of Americans supported the decision, some Western
[PDF] were expected to have met this threshold in 2022: officials and security analysts criticized the Joe Biden
the United States, Croatia, Estonia, Greece, Latvia, administration’s handling of the withdrawal and its
Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and the United Kingdom. refusal to keep any residual force in the country. The
Taliban, an Islamist fundamentalist movement,
While U.S. officials have regularly criticized European regained control of the country following NATO’s exit.
members for failing to meet their budget commitments
to NATO, the administration of President Donald Trump Tensions With Russia
took a more assertive approach, suggesting it would Moscow has viewed NATO’s post–Cold War expansion
reexamine U.S. treaty obligations if the status quo into Central and Eastern Europe with great concern.
persisted. The Many current and
number of former Russian
members meeting leaders believe the
their spending alliance’s inroads
pledges increased into the former
slightly during Soviet sphere are a
Trump’s tenure, betrayal of alleged
although some U.S. guarantees to
subsequently not expand
slipped below the 2 eastward after
percent threshold. Germany’s
Russia’s full-scale reunification in
military assault on 1990, although U.S.
Ukraine in 2022, officials involved in
the largest land these discussions
war in Europe dispute this
since World War II, account of history.
shocked many European defense planners and has led NATO’s Expanding Membership
many alliance members, most notably Germany, to
significantly increase military spending. In the weeks A map of NATO member countries showing expanding
after Russia’s invasion, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz membership over time
pledged to boost weapons investments by one hundred Founding Members (1949)
billion euros and exceed NATO’s 2 percent defense
budget threshold by 2024. Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, United
Afghanistan Kingdom, United States
NATO invoked its collective defense provision, Article Cold War Expansion
V, for the first time following the September 11, 2001,
1952 ( Greece, Turkey )
attacks on the United States, which were perpetrated
by the Afghanistan-based al-Qaeda terrorist network. 1955 (West Germany)
Shortly after U.S.-led forces toppled the Taliban regime 1982 (Spain)
in Kabul, the UN Security Council authorized an
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to Post–Cold War expansion
support the new Afghan government. NATO formally 1990 ( Germany)
assumed command of ISAF in 2003, marking its first
operational commitment beyond Europe. Analysts say 1999( Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland)
that the mission in Afghanistan marked a turning point
2004( Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, A Renewed Alliance
Slovakia, Slovenia )
Years of Russian aggression in Ukraine have pushed
2009( Albania, Croatia ) the alliance to reinforce defenses on NATO’s eastern
2017( Montenegro) flank. Since its 2014 summit in Wales, NATO has
ramped up military exercises and opened new
2020( North Macedonia)
command centers in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
2023( Finland ) Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. The modestly
staffed outposts are intended to support a new rapid
Most Western leaders knew the risks of enlargement.
reaction force of about twenty thousand, including five
“If there is a long-term danger in keeping NATO as it is,
thousand ground troops. NATO military planners say
there is immediate danger in changing it too rapidly.
that a multinational force of about forty thousand could
Swift expansion of NATO eastward could make a neo-
be marshaled in a major crisis.
imperialist Russia a self-fulfilling prophecy,” wrote
Secretary of State Warren Christopher in the In 2017, NATO began rotating four multinational battle
Washington Post in January 1994. groups—about 4,500 troops total—through the Baltic
states and Poland. The alliance has also bolstered
Over the years, NATO and Russia took significant steps
defenses in the Black Sea region, creating a new
toward reconciliation, particularly with the signing of
multinational force of several thousand in Romania. In
the 1997 Founding Act, which established an official
addition, NATO has increased air patrols over its
forum for bilateral discussions; however, a persistent
eastern borders and routinely scrambles jets to
lack of trust has plagued relations.
intercept Russian warplanes violating allied airspace.
NATO’s Bucharest summit in the spring of 2008 Meanwhile, the U.S. Army added another rotational
deepened suspicions. While the alliance delayed armored brigade to the two it had in the region.
membership action plans for Georgia and Ukraine, it
NATO members have increasingly collaborated with
vowed to support their membership down the road,
Ukraine, although as a nonmember, Ukraine remains
despite Russia’s repeated warnings of political and
outside of NATO’s defense perimeter. In 2018, the
military consequences. Russia’s invasion of Georgia
United States started providing Ukraine with advanced
that summer was a clear signal of Moscow’s intentions
defensive weapons, including Javelin anti-tank
to protect what it sees as its sphere of influence,
missiles, to help counter Russia-backed insurgents in
experts say.
the Donbas region.
Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its continued
In the years leading up to Russia’s invasion, Ukraine
destabilization of eastern Ukraine further spoiled
held annual military exercises with the alliance and
relations with NATO. Weeks after the intervention,
became one of just six enhanced opportunity partners,
NATO suspended all civilian and military cooperation
a special status given to the bloc’s closest nonmember
with Moscow.
allies. Moreover, Kyiv affirmed its goal to eventually
President Trump came into power in 2017 aiming to gain full NATO membership.
ease tensions with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Since the invasion, many NATO member countries—
However some members of his administration, as well
including the United States—have provided Ukraine
as many in the U.S. Congress and military, resisted this
with an unprecedented amount of military support,
effort given what they saw as Russia’s ongoing
including sophisticated weaponry such as tanks, heavy
transgressions, most notably its attempts to meddle in
artillery, armed drones, and antiaircraft systems. This
foreign elections and develop new nuclear weapons.
lethal aid is not committed under alliance auspices, and
Late in his presidency, Trump planned to restructure
NATO leaders have been keen to avoid taking actions,
the U.S. military posture in Europe, which would have
such as implementing a no-fly zone, that could draw it
seen a reduction of its overall footprint there, but this
into direct conflict with Russia or otherwise escalate
did not materialize.
the hostilities. Still, Russia has warned that in providing
Russia-NATO tensions came to a head in late 2021 and this assistance, NATO allies are risking the outbreak of
early 2022 when Putin ordered an extraordinary a nuclear war.
military buildup on the border with Ukraine and
Russia’s provocations also prompted another major
threatened a wider invasion unless the alliance
NATO expansion. Finland and Sweden, two countries
pledged to permanently stop expanding its
with a history of avoiding formal military alignment,
membership, seek Russian consent for certain NATO
applied to join the alliance in 2022. Finland acceded in
military deployments, and remove U.S. nuclear
April 2023, expanding NATO’s Nordic footprint and
weapons from Europe, among other guarantees.
doubling the length of its border with Russia. Sweden’s
Alliance leaders dismissed these requests while
bid has been delayed by political disputes with Turkey
seeking other diplomatic avenues, and Russia launched
and Hungary, the final holdouts to its membership.
its invasion in February.
© COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
 The Unstoppable Rise of Hindu
Nationalism
Hartosh Singh Bal
On March 25, Yogi Adityanath—a saffron-clad monk to strip citizenship from hundreds of millions of people,
from the right-wing, Hindu-fundamentalist Bharatiya provoked widespread protests. Adityanath’s state
Janata Party—was sworn in for a second term as chief
government responded with harsh measures,
minister of the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. For two
including seizing property from demonstrators (a
hours that morning, temple bells rang at ceremonies
penalty that was halted by the Indian Supreme Court).
organized across the state to mark the occasion. It was
Attacks on Muslims have increased across India since
in keeping with the image that Adityanath has sought to
Modi took power, most recently during an April 10
project: heir to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi,
outbreak of communal violence that coincided with a
and a leading figure in the BJP’s attempt to turn India
Hindu festival. But the upsurge has been particularly
into a Hindu nationalist state.
acute in Uttar Pradesh, where Adityanath has carried
Adityanath’s victory was a remarkable feat. He is the out a “law-and-order” policing campaign that
state’s first chief minister to win reelection in the past disproportionally kills Muslims.
30 years, and he did so despite his government’s
Adityanath called Muslims “two-legged animals” whose
disastrous mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The
“production” needed to stop.
state has a large and underreported pandemic death
rate, and for weeks, bodies floated down the Ganges Many analysts have chalked Adityanath’s reelection up
River. Patients struggled to cope with insufficient to direct cash transfers and food deliveries to the poor
hospital beds during India’s
and oxygen severe
scarcities. lockdown.
But the BJP But this
nonetheless makes little
captured 255 sense; the
of the 403 BJP
seats in the performed
state worst in
legislature, a some of the
margin that poorer
exceeded regions of the
even its own state. And
expectations. Adityanath’s
win is part of
Uttar
a broader
Pradesh is
trend.
India’s
Despite a sluggish national economy, the BJP has had
biggest state, home to a population of over 200 million
a remarkable series of victories across the country,
people and accounting for 80 out of the 543 seats in the
including Modi’s triumph at the federal level in 2014, his
national parliament. When the BJP first selected
surprise overwhelming reelection in 2019, and a series
Adityanath to be its chief minister after sweeping the
of other state victories—many in places where Hindu
state’s 2017 elections, many analysts were surprised.
nationalists had never before found success. Of the six
Adityanath had served as the head of a prominent
state contests decided this February and March, the
Hindu seminary and had been indicted for threatening
BJP won five.
violence against Muslims. His extremism—Adityanath
once called Muslims “two-legged animals” whose The secret to the BJP’s successes is far deeper—and
“production” needed to stop—was out of line with the far darker—than economics. For years, Hindu
party’s professed commitment to emphasizing nationalists have worked to consolidate various parts
economic development. of the faith into a unified political movement. They have
very successfully organized high-caste Hindus, who sit
But Adityanath’s attitude was indicative of the central
at the top of the religion’s hierarchy and make up most
government’s plans, and he has helped amplify Modi’s
of the Indian elite. But the party has managed to gain
agenda. In late 2019, India passed new citizenship laws
support from many marginalized, low-caste Hindus as
that distinguished Muslims and Christians from people
well by emphasizing that they, too, belong within
belonging to religions that originated in India, namely
Hinduism and by providing them with representation,
Hindus, Sikhs, and Buddhists. The laws, which threaten
almost all in the party’s lower ranks. The BJP has also
fostered and weaponized Islamophobia to great effect,
further unifying the country’s 966 million Hindus while advantage of the almost infinitely graded hierarchy of
making life increasingly difficult for its nearly 200 caste, working to get votes from the Hindu groups not
million Muslims. well represented by India’s political parties. Even
political parties that represent an overarching caste
The result has been a discriminatory political
group, such as Dalits, tend to be dominated by the
juggernaut that—as the state elections show—reaches
group’s largest member caste. This has allowed the
its limits only at the literal edges of India, mostly in
BJP to reach out to other members and win them over.
states where Hindus are not the overwhelming
Although each such caste was not numerically very
majority of residents. It will lead to the hardening of
large, by accumulating support from many of them, the
India’s tiered democracy. Muslims already do not enjoy
BJP was able to build a substantial political base.
the same rights in practice that other citizens do, and
regions on India’s borders, such as Kashmir, are Indeed, even communities lying outside the fold of
watching as the Indian government increasingly uses Brahminical Hinduism, such as India’s more than 75
the military to restrain dissent. As the BJP’s power million Adivasis—people who belong to the country’s
grows, both discrimination against Muslims and the aboriginal groups—have begun to support the BJP in
repression of outlying states are likely to worsen. large numbers over the past three decades. That is,
again, thanks in part to the RSS’s efforts. Through its
A CENTURY IN THE MAKING affiliates, the RSS has opened hundreds of schools
In 1925, a doctor from central India named Keshav among the Adivasis, and it has labored to inculcate a
Baliram Hedgewar established the Rashtriya Hindu ethos in regions where it was largely absent. The
Swayamsevak Sangh, a far-right paramilitary group organization has also worked with missionary zeal to
dedicated to creating a unified Hindu faith. From its try to match various Adivasi deities with members of
inception, the group disdained Muslims and Christians, the vast pantheon of Hindu gods, turning traditional
and its architects drew inspiration from European Adivasi religious observance into a manifestation of
fascists as they built their organization. Madhav Hinduism. Notably, the RSS refuses to use the term
Sadashiv Golwalkar, the RSS’s leader from 1940 to 1973 “Adivasi” since it denotes original inhabitants, and the
(and still its most influential figure), endorsed Adolf organization insists that the Indian subcontinent’s first
Hitler’s Final Solution as a model for how India should people were Hindus. (Instead, the RSS refers to these
deal with its Muslims. aboriginal groups as Vanvasi, or forest dwellers.)

The Indian government briefly banned the organization Today, the RSS has tens of millions of members,
in 1948, after a longtime member assassinated making it perhaps the largest nongovernmental
Mahatma Gandhi. But over the following decades, the organization in the world. It is certainly one of the most
RSS gained respectability as it found just slightly more powerful. The RSS lies at the center of a vast web of
subtle ways to menace Muslims. In 1983, for instance, groups, including one of India’s largest trade unions. It
the RSS, through one of its affiliate organizations, boasts a students’ association, a teachers’ wing, a
launched a movement to tear down a famous mosque women’s wing, and a lawyers’ association. The BJP now
in the Uttar Pradesh city of Ayodhya and replace it with has an annual income more than five times as large as
a Hindu temple. Three years earlier, it created a new its main political rival, and it is broadly backed by the
political party—the BJP—in order to contest and win media—in no small part because the press is largely
elections. The BJP soon caught on at the state level, controlled by upper castes.
capitalizing, in part, on the Ayodhya temple movement. But even as it has grown, the ideological core of the
In 1991, it won an election in Uttar Pradesh for the first RSS has remained unchanged. According to its
time. A year later, the state administration and police doctrine, citizens of India must believe that their
stood aside as a large mob led by senior party leaders country is not just their motherland but also their holy
illegally demolished the mosque. land—a definition designed to leave out Muslims and
This violence did little to deter upper-caste Hindus— Christians, whose most sacred locations lie elsewhere.
namely Brahmins (the traditional priestly caste), The RSS has been named in many of the country’s most
Kshatriyas, (the warrior caste), and Banias (the trading prominent cases of mob violence targeting both
caste)—from becoming BJP supporters. They are a religious groups. In 2002, it helped carry out a violent
powerful bloc. Although these castes account for less pogrom against Muslims in the state of Gujarat. At the
than 15 per cent of the Indian population, they control time, Modi was the state’s chief minister.
much of the country’s intellectual life and its finances, The violence has, in turn, further empowered the RSS.
and they have been attracted by the BJP’s message of Modi won reelection in Gujarat by playing on anti-
Hindu greatness, which feeds directly into the self- Muslim violence, referring to relief camps for Muslim
image of the upper castes (and which accompanies the victims of the Gujarat pogroms as “baby producing
party’s Islamophobia). Many also saw the BJP as a factories.” He won reelection as prime minister by
bulwark against various smaller parties that drew drumming up fears of Muslims entering India from
support from lower-caste groups. Bangladesh. And his choice to lead Uttar Pradesh,
But the RSS also began building support among lower Adityanath, won reelection by describing the contest as
Hindu artisanal castes, and even among the a battle between the 80 percent and the 20 percent: a
traditionally oppressed Dalits. It has done so by taking
clear reference to the state’s 40 million Muslims, who came in second in the eastern state of West Bengal,
represent roughly 20 percent of the population. which traditionally leans left and has a Muslim
population of nearly 30 percent. It is an
Adityanath’s “80 versus 20” language also illustrates
accomplishment that is difficult to overstate. Before
his party’s national electoral strategy. Most of India,
2021, the party had never won more than three seats in
like most of Uttar Pradesh, is Hindu, so if the BJP can
its 294-person legislature, and it had not received more
polarize the country along neat religious lines, it can
than 11.4 percent of the vote. In 2021, it won 77 seats and
easily win power. It is a strategy that appears to be
38 percent, respectively.
succeeding. It is, after all, hard to come up with an
alternative explanation for why Modi and Adityanath India’s core is already bigger than its outlying areas,
have stayed in office. In terms of secular governance, and its population is growing faster than theirs. The
there is little that either has done that stands out. Since current allocation of seats to the Indian Parliament is
Modi came to power, the Indian economy has grown based on the 1971 census, and a long-overdue
significantly more slowly than it did under his readjustment would have to give even greater weight
predecessor, and internationally the country is at a loss to states such as Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is
for ideas. China keeps squeezing India along the two strong. Indeed, the BJP’s hold on power in India seems
countries’ long and poorly defined border. India’s so secure, and so set to grow, that its ideology is
continued dependence on increasingly outdated unlikely to be challenged even by opposition political
Russian arms, despite Modi’s repeated declarations parties. Today, no organization can hope to seriously
that India must be self-reliant, has left the country bid for power by alienating the expanding Hindu core of
unable to take a clear position on the Ukraine war. the country.
Adityanath, meanwhile, has presided over similarly
It seems likely, then, that the RSS will eventually
lackluster growth and a humanitarian disaster.
succeed in imposing its vision on dissenters—both
But for those who support the two leaders, such issues those within its central states, such as the Muslims of
are secondary to their real achievements. As the RSS Uttar Pradesh, and those who lie outside, such as the
prepares to celebrate its centennial in 2025, its vision Sikhs and the Tamils. The result will be oppression on
of a Hindu nation is more tangible than ever. Modi has an enormous scale. More than 400 million people
trampled on the autonomy and rights of Kashmir, either do not subscribe to Hinduism or do not practice
India’s only Muslim-majority state. His citizenship laws the kind of Hinduism that the RSS holds supreme. They
are marginalizing hundreds of millions of non-Hindus. will nonetheless be subject to what is, ultimately, an
Adityanath has aggressively persecuted his state’s imperial project that attempts to homogenize the Hindu
Muslim population, as well. Now that he will govern population while ensuring that India’s Muslims and
Uttar Pradesh past the RSS centennial, it seems likely Christians are relegated to second-class citizenship.
that the organization will finally construct a massive
For regions in the periphery, this will mean the
temple in Ayodhya—at the exact site where the mosque
constant threat of forced cultural assimilation. For
was illegally brought down.
instance, the country’s home minister has announced
MARGINAL AND MARGINALIZED that Hindi will be made compulsory until tenth grade
(class 10) in the country’s northeast, which has no real
Can the RSS be stopped? There are certainly limits to links with the language. It will also mean a constant
its cultural project. Although the BJP overwhelmingly risk of facing economic exploitation. Kerala, Punjab,
won the most recent batch of state elections, it and Tamil Nadu far outperform India’s core on almost
overwhelmingly lost the northwestern state of Punjab, all development indicators, and the Indian union, where
taking just two of its 117 seats. The reason for that is finances are centralized, already transfers these
both clear and telling: over 60 percent of Punjab’s states’ wealth and resources to the areas which are
residents are Sikhs, for whom the promise of a doing far worse—and where today the BJP gets most
“purified” Hindu nation holds little appeal. The BJP has of its support. This process will only be aggravated. For
also been effectively locked out of the southern state the Muslims within the core, the situation is set to
of Kerala, where more than 40 percent of the worsen. They will face increasing political and
population practices a different faith, and where even economic marginalization, the constant threat of mob
the Hindus have a strong sense of a distinct cultural violence, and the constant threat of state violence. The
identity. Finally, it has been unable to break through in ultimate result will be their complete
India’s southernmost state, Tamil Nadu. This last state disempowerment.
is an interesting case; among the regions that lie
outside the BJP’s reach, it is the only one that is For the BJP, this disempowerment is both an ends and
overwhelmingly Hindu. But, as in Kerala, Tamil Nadu’s a means. The whole project of a Hindu nation has little
Hindus have a strong cultural identity of their own, and meaning if it is not juxtaposed against an Islamic threat
it is not within the RSS’s Brahminical vision. from within. Ironically, this means that even as the BJP
seeks to reach out to the Dalits—the former
These states, however, all fall on India’s periphery. untouchables—and bring them within the fold of
Everywhere else, the BJP is either in power or not far Hinduism, it is succeeding in creating a new set of
from it, including in places where the party’s brand has untouchables: the Muslims of India.
long been toxic. In March 2021, for example, the BJP © FOREIGN AFFAIRS
 The International Responsibility of
International Organisations
Memoona Nasir
Introduction In the author’s view, the relationship between Chapter
VII and Chapter VIII of the UN Charter is “a balance
The International Responsibility of International between regionalism and universalism.” Chapter VII of
Organisations: Cooperation in Peacekeeping the UN Charter deals with the maintenance of
Operations by Moritz P. Moelle is a significant insertion international peace and security, while Chapter VIII
of the literature on the responsibilities of international upholds the constitutional basis for regional
organizations while conducting their peacekeeping organizations to help in the maintenance of
missions. With an increase in the complexities of international peace. Therefore, he makes a compelling
conflict, the way how international organizations work, case that the framework provided by the UN Charter
behave, and cooperate has become much more for upholding global peace and security is based on a
intricate than ever before. This raises the question of compromise between universalism and regionalism
whether there’s any mechanism that ensures justice and it accommodates both perspectives.
and transparency in the conduct of these international
organizations in the context of peacekeeping missions. Moelle deliberately focuses on the comparative
methodology by focusing on
In The International the five international
Responsibility of International organizations: the European
Organisations, Moritz P. Union (EU), NATO, the African
Moelle provides a Union (AU), the Economic
comprehensive analysis of the Community of West African
legal framework governing the States (ECOWAS), and the UN.
responsibility of international The reason for choosing these
organizations for their actions five international
or omissions during organizations for the
peacekeeping operations. The comparative study is that it
book covers various aspects of makes it possible to compare
international organizations’ the legislative frameworks of
responsibilities, including their these organizations, their
obligations, wrongful acts, interactions with one another,
attribution, remedies, and and their agreements for
immunity. The main research collaboration during
question of this book is peacekeeping missions. The
whether international author argues that the
organizations working organizations involved in
together in peacekeeping peacekeeping missions act
operations can be held jointly equally, and there is no
accountable under superior-subordinate
international law for their relationship.
conduct.
Joint Responsibility and
Regionalism &
Collective Punishment
Universalism in the UN
The central premise of The International Responsibility
Charter of International Organisations is whether these
In the introductory chapters of The International organizations may be held jointly liable for any act of
Responsibility of International Organisations, Moelle violation. The main research question of this book is
identifies the general evolution of the collective comprehensively explained in Chapter 3, “From the
security system under the UN Charter. He provides a Broader Legal Framework.” To elucidate his argument,
legal framework for attributing the international he uses the 2011 International Law Commission’s
organization’s accountability, particularly in Articles on Responsibility of International
peacekeeping operations, Moelle puts a great Organizations (ARIO). After carefully considering the
emphasis on The United Nations Charter’s Chapters VII grounds for attributing the act (mentioned in Article 7
and VIII which cover the cooperation and relationship of ARIO), and the responsibility mentioned in Articles 14
of the United Nations with regional organizations to and 15, he settles that these regulations do not
maintain international peace and security. effectively highlight the contemporary cooperation
arrangements among different international in nature. There are questions and debates regarding
organizations engaged in peacekeeping processes. how international organizations should use their legal
power and which body of humanitarian law should
The analysis of the relevant articles concludes that the
apply to the conflicts governing peacekeeping
concept of joint responsibility of the conduct is only
operations. Concerning this, there is an ongoing
covered by one organization under ARIO. So, there is a
argument between International Humanitarian Law
clear “responsibility gap” concerning the cases of joint
and International Human Rights Law. To add to the
responsibility. In response to this, Moelle provides his
chaos, intense research is underway to determine the
new criteria for attributing the responsibility of the
feasibility of creating a global human rights tribunal
conduct, in the context of peacekeeping operations, to
with the power to scrutinize the conduct of
two or more international organizations. This conduct
peacekeeping operations.
comes under the principle of “normative control.”
In addition to his normative control theory, Moelle
Considering the understanding, Moelle defines
provides some recommendations to deal with the
normative control as “means having the political or
relationship between The UN and regional
institutional influence of one organization on another.“
organizations for a better understanding of the
This can include funding and logistics support, mandate
complexity of the situation. He also proposes a
planning, and providing guidance on conducting the
‘’Standard Model Agreement’’ so that all the
mission. In conclusion, Moelle contends that one
organizations involved in peacekeeping missions are
organization that exerts normative control over
aware of the rules applicable to them.
another by its political, institutional, or financial power
is capable of being held concurrently responsible for Drawback
the actions of a peacekeeping force.
The book’s failure to consider stakeholders outside of
Strengths the legal community is one of its flaws. While Moelle
briefly mentions civil society and affected communities’
The International Responsibility of International
roles in holding international organizations
Organisations considers the United Nations, as well as
responsible, there is little exploration of their opinions
regional organizations like the European and African
and experiences. This is a squandered opportunity, as
Union, to support his arguments. Moelle also assesses
a more thorough examination of the role of
the various kinds of obligations that these
stakeholders would have provided a more nuanced
organizations might have, such as moral, political, and
understanding of the difficulties that international
legal. He explains legal ideas in simple terms and uses
organizations have in carrying out their tasks.
several examples and case studies, such as
peacekeeping operations in Kosovo, Darfur, and South Despite some deficiencies, Moritz P. Moelle’s book is an
Sudan, to support his claims. He posits a strong important contribution to the literature on the
argument through these case studies. He asserts that international responsibility of international
the current study trend shows that regional organizations. This book is a valuable resource for both
organizations consider themselves to be bound by the legal scholars and practitioners because of the
provisions of the UN Charter-based on customary law author’s clear and comprehensive explanation of the
and this affects the attribution of the conduct on a legal framework governing these organizations’
variety of levels. responsibilities as well as the challenges they face in
carrying out their activities.
Moelle also delves into the practical aspects of
implementing international responsibility, including the © Paradigm Shift
means of settling disputes and the remedies available
for breaches of international responsibility and the
applicable law. His analysis focuses on how
international norms are used by the UN and regional
organizations when peacekeeping missions are
deployed.
In assessing the accountability of international
organizations, he looks at international judicial bodies’
functions, the International Court of Justice, and the
International Tribunal for the Law of Sea. Moelle
investigates the numerous legal frameworks, such as
the ARIO, customary international law, and basic legal
principles, that govern the accountability of
international organizations. He also analyses the
different forms of responsibility, including primary,
secondary, and shared responsibility.
Moelle’s analysis shows that the legal framework
applicable to peacekeeping operations is quite complex