Game Theory
Game Theory
MODULE 4
Game Theory
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After completing this supplement, students will be able to:
SUPPLEMENT OUTLINE
M4.1 Introduction
M4.2 Language of Games
M4.3 The Minimax Criterion
M4.4 Pure Strategy Games
M4.5 Mixed Strategy Games
M4.6 Dominance
Summary • Glossary • Solved Problems • Self-Test • Discussion Questions and Problems • Bibliography
Appendix M4.1: Game Theory with QM for Windows
M4-1
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M4.1 Introduction
As discussed in Chapter 1, competition can be an important decision-making factor. The strate-
gies taken by other organizations or individuals can dramatically affect the outcome of our
decisions. In the automobile industry, for example, the strategies of competitors to introduce cer-
tain models with certain features can dramatically affect the profitability of other carmakers.
Today, business cannot make important decisions without considering what other organizations
or individuals are doing or might do.
Game theory is one way to consider the impact of the strategies of others on our strategies
and outcomes. A game is a contest involving two or more decision makers, each of whom wants
to win. Game theory is the study of how optimal strategies are formulated in conflict.
The study of game theory dates back to 1944, when John von Neumann and Oscar Morgen-
stern published their classic book, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior.1 Since then, game
theory has been used by army generals to plan war strategies, by union negotiators and managers
in collective bargaining, and by businesses of all types to determine the best strategies given a
competitive business environment.
Game theory continues to be important today. In 1994, John Harsanui, John Nash, and
Reinhard Selten jointly received the Nobel Prize in Economics from the Royal Swedish
Academy of Sciences.2 In their classic work, these individuals developed the notion of
noncooperative game theory. After the work of John von Neumann, Nash developed the con-
cepts of the Nash equilibrium and the Nash bargaining problem, which are the cornerstones of
modern game theory.
Game models are classified by the number of players, the sum of all payoffs, and the number
of strategies employed. Due to the mathematical complexity of game theory, we limit the analy-
sis in this module to games that are two person and zero sum. A two-person game is one in
which only two parties can play—as in the case of a union and a company in a bargaining
In a zero-sum game, what is session. For simplicity, X and Y represent the two game players. Zero sum means that the sum of
gained by one player is lost by losses for one player must equal the sum of gains for the other player. Thus, if X wins 20 points
the other. or dollars, Y loses 20 points or dollars. With any zero-sum game, the sum of the gains for one
player is always equal to the sum of the losses for the other player. When you sum the gains and
losses for both players, the result is zero—hence the name zero-sum games.
1J. von Neumann and O. Morgenstern. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University
Press, 1944.
2Rita Koselka. “The Games Businesses Play,” Forbes (November 7, 1994): 12.
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TABLE M4.1
GAME PLAYER Y’s STRATEGIES
Store X’s Payoff Matrix
Y1 Y2
(Use radio) (Use newspaper)
X1
GAME (Use radio) 3 5
PLAYER X’S
X2
STRATEGIES
(Use newspaper) 1 -2
A positive number in Table M4.1 means that X wins and Y loses. A negative number means
that Y wins and X loses. It is obvious from the table that the game favors competitor X, since all
values are positive except one. If the game had favored player Y, the values in the table would
have been negative. In other words, the game in Table M4.1 is biased against Y. However, since
Y must play the game, he or she will play to minimize total losses. To do this, Player Y would
use the minimax criterion, our next topic.
Game Outcomes
TABLE M4.2
SADDLE POINT
Minimax Solution
Y1 Y2 Minimum
X1 3 5 3
Maximum of minimums
X2 1 -2 ⴚ2
Maximum 3 5
Minimum of maximums
An equilibrium or saddle point Table M4.2, the value of the game is 3 because this is the value for both the upper and lower
condition exists if the upper values. The value of the game is the average or expected game outcome if the game is played an
value of the game is equal to the infinite number of times.
lower value of the game. This is In implementing the minimax strategy, player Y will find the maximum value in each col-
called the value of the game. umn and select the minimum of these maximums. In implementing the maximin strategy, player
X will find the minimum value in each row and select the maximum of these minimums. When
a saddle point is present, this approach will result in pure strategies for each player. Otherwise,
the solution to the game will involve mixed strategies. These concepts are discussed in the fol-
lowing sections.
TABLE M4.3
PLAYER Y’s STRATEGIES
Example of a Pure
Strategy Game Minimum
row number
Y1 Y2 T
PLAYER X’s X1 10 6 6
STRATEGIES
X2 - 12 2 - 12
Maximum column number : 10 6
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TABLE M4.4
PLAYER Y’s STRATEGIES
Game Table for Mixed
Strategy Game Y1 Y2
PLAYER X’s X1 4 2
STRATEGIES
X2 1 10
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TABLE M4.5
Y1 Y2
Game Table for Mixed
P 1 - P Expected gain
Strategy Game with
Percentages (P, Q) X1 Q 4 2 4P ⴙ 2(1 ⴚ P)
Shown X2 1 - Q 1 10 1P ⴙ 10(1 ⴚ P)
Expected gain 4Q ⴙ 1(1 ⴚ Q) 2Q ⴙ 10(1 ⴚ Q)
then the expected value for player Y will not depend on the strategy chosen by X. Therefore, to
solve this, we set these two expected values equal, as follows:
4P + 211 - P2 = 1P + 1011 - P2
Solving this for P, we have
P = 8>11
and
1 - P = 1 - 8>11 = 3>11
Thus, 8>11 and 3>11 indicate how often player Y will choose strategies Y1 and Y2 respectively. The
expected value computed with these percentages is
1P + 1011 - P2 = 118>112 + 1013>112 = 38
>11 = 3.46
Performing a similar analysis for player X, we let Q be the percentage of the time that strat-
egy X1 is played and 1 - Q be the percentage of the time that strategy X2 is played. Using these,
we compute the expected gain shown in Table M4.5. We set these equal, as follows:
4Q + 111 - Q2 = 2Q + 1011 - Q2
Solving for Q, we get
Q = 9>11
and
1 - Q = 2>11
Thus, 9>11 and 2>11 indicate how often player X will choose strategies X1 and X2 respectively. The
expected gains with these probabilities will also be 38>11, or 3.46.
SUMMARY M4-7
M4.6 Dominance
The principle of dominance can be used to reduce the size of games by eliminating strategies
that would never be played. A strategy for a player is said to be dominated if the player can al-
ways do as well or better playing another strategy. Any dominated strategy can be eliminated
from the game. In other words, a strategy can be eliminated if all its game’s outcomes are the
same or worse than the corresponding game outcomes of another strategy.
Using the principle of dominance, we reduce the size of the following game:
Y1 Y2
X1 4 3
X2 2 20
X3 1 1
In this game, X3 will never be played because X can always do better by playing X1 or X2. The
new game is
Y1 Y2
X1 4 3
X2 2 20
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4
X1 -5 4 6 -3
X2 -2 6 2 -20
In this game, Y would never play Y2 and Y3 because Y could always do better playing Y1 or Y4.
The new game is
Y1 Y4
X1 -5 -3
X2 -2 - 20
Summary
Game theory is the study of how optimal strategies are formu- Depending on the actual payoffs in the game and the size
lated in conflict. Because of the mathematical complexities of of the game, a number of solution techniques can be used. In a
game theory, this module is limited to two-person and zero- pure strategy game, strategies for the players can be obtained
sum games. A two-person game allows only two people or two without making any calculations. When there is not a pure
groups to be involved in the game. Zero sum means that the strategy, also called a saddle point, for both players, it is neces-
sum of the losses for one player must equal the sum of the sary to use other techniques, such as the mixed strategy
gains for the other player. The overall sum of the losses and approach, dominance, and a computer solution for games
gains for both players, in other words, must be zero. larger than 2 * 2.
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Glossary
Dominance A procedure that is used to reduce the size of Pure Strategy A game in which both players will always
the game. play just one strategy.
Minimax Criterion A criterion that minimizes one’s maxi- Saddle Point Game A game that has a pure strategy.
mum losses. This is another way of solving a pure strategy Two-Person Game A game that has only two players.
game. Value of the Game The expected winnings of the game if
Mixed Strategy Game A game in which the optimal the game is played a large number of times.
strategy for both players involves playing more than one Zero-Sum Game A game in which the losses for one player
strategy over time. Each strategy is played a given percent- equal the gains for the other player.
age of the time.
Solved Problems
Y1 Y2
X1 6 5
X2 20 23
X3 15 11
Solution
After carefully analyzing the game, George realizes that he will never play strategy X1. The best out-
come for this strategy (6) is worse than the worst outcome for the other two strategies. In addition,
George would never play strategy X3, for the same reason. Thus, George will always play strategy X2.
Given this situation, player Y would always play strategy Y1 to minimize her losses. This is a pure strat-
egy game with George playing X2 and person Y playing strategy Y1. The value of the game for this prob-
lem is the outcome of these two strategies, which is 20.
Y1 Y2
X1 4 2
X2 0 10
Solution
This game can be solved by setting up the mixed strategy table and developing the appropriate equations:
Y1 Y2
P 1 - P Expected gain
X1 Q 4 2 4P ⴙ 2(1 ⴚ P)
X1 1 - Q 1 10 0P ⴙ 10(1 ⴚ P)
Expected gain 4Q ⴙ 0(1 ⴚ Q) 2Q ⴙ 10(1 ⴚ Q)
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Self-Test
䊉 Before taking the self-test, refer back to the learning objectives at the beginning of the supplement and the glossary at the end
of the supplement.
䊉 Use the key at the back of the book to correct your answers.
䊉 Restudy pages that correspond to any questions that you answered incorrectly or material you feel uncertain about.
1. In a two-person, zero-sum game, 5. In a two-person zero-sum game, it is determined that
a. each person has two strategies. strategy X1 dominates strategy X2. This means
b. whatever is gained by one person is lost by the other. a. strategy X1 will never be chosen.
c. all payoffs are zero. b. the payoffs for strategy X1 will be greater than or equal
d. a saddle point always exists. to the payoffs for X2.
2. A saddle point exists if c. a saddle point exists in the game.
a. the largest payoff in a column is also the smallest d. a mixed strategy must be used.
payoff in its row. 6. In a pure strategy game,
b. the smallest payoff in a column is also the largest a. each player will randomly choose the strategy to be
payoff in its row. used.
c. there are only two strategies for each player. b. each player will always select the same strategy, regard
d. there is a dominated strategy in the game. less of what the other person does.
3. If the upper and lower values of the game are the same, c. there will never be a saddle point.
a. there is no solution to the game. d. the value of the game must be computed using proba-
b. there is a mixed solution to the game. bilities.
c. a saddle point exists. 7. The solution to a mixed strategy game is based on the
d. there is a dominated strategy in the game. assumption that
4. In a mixed strategy game, a. each player wishes to maximize the long-run average
a. each player will always play just one strategy. payoff.
b. there is no saddle point. b. both players can be winners with no one experiencing
c. each player will try to maximize the maximum of all any loss.
possible payoffs. c. players act irrationally.
d. a player will play each of two strategies exactly 50% d. there is sometimes a better solution than a saddle point
of the time. solution.
Problems* M4-15 Shoe Town and Fancy Foot are both vying for more
share of the market. If Shoe Town does no advertis-
M4-8 Determine the strategies for X and Y, given the
ing, it will not lose any share of the market if Fancy
following game. What is the value of the game?
Foot does nothing. It will lose 2% of the market if
Fancy Foot invests $10,000 in advertising, and it
Y1 Y2
will lose 5% of the market if Fancy Foot invests
X1 2 -4 $20,000 in advertising. On the other hand, if Shoe
X2 6 10 Town invests $15,000 in advertising, it will gain 3%
of the market if Fancy Foot does nothing; it will gain
1% of the market if Fancy Foot invests $10,000 in
M4-9 What is the value of the following game and the
advertising; and it will lose 1% if Fancy Foot invests
strategies for A and B?
$20,000 in advertising.
(a) Develop a payoff table for this problem.
B1 B2 (b) Determine the various strategies using the
A1 19 20 computer.
A2 5 -4 (c) How would you determine the value of the
game?
M4-16 Assume that a 1% increase in the market means a
M4-10 Determine each player’s strategy and the value of
profit of $1,000. Resolve Problem M4-15, using
the game, given the following table:
monetary value instead of market share.
M4-17 Solve for the optimal strategies and the value of the
Y1 Y2
following game:
X1 86 42
X2 36 106 B STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY
A B1 B2 B3
BIBLIOGRAPHY M4-11
M4-20 Petroleum Research, Inc. (A), and Extraction Inter- are critical to their success. Petroleum Research,
national, Inc. (B), have each developed a new extrac- with the help of an advertising firm, has developed
tion procedure that will remove metal and other 15 possible strategies. Extraction International has
contaminants from used automotive engine oil. The developed 5 possible advertising strategies. The eco-
equipment is expensive, and the extraction process is nomic outcome in millions of dollars is shown in the
complex, but the approach provides an economical following table. What strategy do you recommend
way to recycle used engine oil. Both companies have for Petroleum Research? How much money can it
developed unique technical procedures. Both com- expect from its approach?
panies also believe that advertising and promotion
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PROGRAM M4.1
QM for Windows Output
for Game Theory