THE PROBABILITY CONCEPT AND SOME PROPERTIES

Probability analysis is based on the following simple postulates.

Postulate 1. 0 <P(E) <1 for any simple event E

Postulate 2. The probability for any event E is the sum of the probability of the simple events that
constitute E.

Postulate 3. P(S) = 1, where S is the sample space.

Approaches to Assigning Probabilities

A Priori or Classical Probability – probability is determined even before the experiment is performed using
the following rule:
no. of sample points in A n
P(A)= no. of sample points in S = N

A posteriori or Relative Frequency or Empirical Probability – probability is determined by repeating the

experiment a large number of times using the following rule:

no. of times event A occurred

P(A)= no. of times experiment was repeated

Subjective Probability – probability is determined by the use of intuition, personal beliefs, and other
indirect information.

Examples:

Find the error in each of the following statements:

1. The probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.40 and the probability that it will not rain
tomorrow is 0.52.

P(S) = 0.40 + 0.52 = 0.92

*The sum must be equal to 1 (Postulate 3).

2. The probabilities that a printer will make 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 or more mistakes in printing a document
are, respectively, 0.19, 0.34, -0.25, 0.43, and 0.29.

*The probability of any event must be 0 or 1 and the values in between 0 and 1. Hence there is
no negative probability. (Postulate 1)

3. The probabilities that an automobile salesperson will sell 0, 1, 2, or 3 cars on any given day in
February are, respectively, 0.19, 0.38, 0.29, and 0.15.

P(S) = 0.19 + 0.38 + 0.29 +0.15

= 1.01

*The probability of any event must be 0 or 1 and the values in between 0 and 1. Hence, the
probability must not be greater than 1. (Postulate 1)
 4. In tossing a fair coin, what is the probability of getting a head? Of either a head or tail?
Of neither a head nor tail?
P(H) = ½
P(H or T)= 1
P(H nor T) = 0

5. In tossing a fair die, what is the probability of getting a 3? Of getting an even number?
Of getting a number greater than 6?
1
P (of getting a 3) =
6

1
P (of getting an even no. ) =
2

P (of getting a no. greater than 6) = 0

6. A coin is biased so that a head is twice as likely to occur as a tail. If the coin is tossed
once, what is the probability of getting a head?

2
P(H) =
3

Theorems on Probabilities of Events

Theorem 1 . (Additive Rule) If A and B are any two events, the

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)

Corollary. If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)

Corollary. If A1, A2,…,Anare mutually exclusive, then

P(A1  A2  …  An) = P(A1) + P(A2) + …+P(An)

Theorem 2. If A and A c are complementary events, then

P(A) + P (A c) = 1

Examples:
1. The probability that a student passes Stat 101 is 0.60, and the probability that he passes Comm II
is 0.85. If the probability that he passes at least one of the two courses is 0.95, what is the
probability that he will pass both courses? Fail both Stat 101 and Comm II?

Probability that he will pass both subjects,

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B) (Theorem 1)

= 0.60 + 0.85 – 0.95
= 0.5

Since the probability that he will pass both subjects is 0.5 then the probability that he will fail both
is 1 – 0.5.

P(A) + P (A c) = 1 (Theorem 2)
P(A) = 1 - P (Ac)
P(A) = 1- 0.5
= 0.5
2. In the toss of a fair coin 4 times, what is the probability of no head in the toss? At least one h ead?

Tossing a coin 4 times will give us 24 = 16 outcomes

Out of 16 outcomes, there is only 1 case in which head will not occur, that is if you get all 4 tails.
So the probability of no head in the toss is 1/16.
Probability of getting at least 1 head,

1 15
1− =
16 16

3. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least 1 head occurs?

3
22 = 4 outcomes, the probability that at least one head will occur is
4

4. A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely to occur as an odd number. If E
is the event that a number less than 4 occurs on a single toss of the die, find P(E)?

Even number in a die is 3 x 2 = 6

Odd number in a die is 3.

Total number is 6 + 3 = 9.

Out of 9 numbers, the numbers less than 4 are 1, 2, 2, and 3.

4
Therefore the probability is
9

4. A statistics class for engineers consists of 25 industrial, 10 mechanical, 10 electrical, and 8 civil
engineering students. If a person is randomly selected by the instructor to answer a question, find
the probability that the student chosen is (a) an industrial engineering major and (b) a civil
engineering or an electrical engineering major.

a. an industrial engineering major

25
53

b. a civil engineering or an electrical engineering major

8 10 18
P (CE + EE) = + =
53 53 53

5. John is going to graduate from an industrial engineering department in a university by the e nd of

the semester. After being interviewed at two companies he likes, he assesses that his probability
of getting an offer from company A is 0.8, and his probability of getting an offer from company B
is 0.6. If he believes that the probability that he will get offers from both companies is 0.5, what is
the probability that he will get at least one offer from these two companies?

𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐵) − 𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 0.8 + 0.6 − 0.5
= 0.9
 6. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3 books of poems, and a
dictionary, what is the probability that

a. the dictionary is selected?

8𝐶2 𝑥 1𝐶1 28 𝑥 1 28 1
= = =
9𝐶3 84 84 3

b) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?

5𝐶2 𝑥 3𝐶1 10 𝑥 3 30 5
= = =
9𝐶3 84 84 14

Conditional Probability

The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has occurred is called a
conditional probability and is denoted by P(B|A). The symbol P(B|A) is usually read “the probability
that B occurs given that A occurs”or simply “the probability of B, given A.”

The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by P(B|A), is defined by

𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃 (𝐵/𝐴 ) = , 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑃 (𝐴 ) > 0.
𝑃 (𝐴)

Table 1: Categorization of the Adults in a Small Town

Employed Unemployed Total
Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900

One of these individuals is to be selected at random for a tour throughout the country to publicize
the advantages of establishing new industries in the town. We shall be concerned with the following
events:
M: a man is chosen,
E: the one chosen is employed.

𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝐸)
𝑃(𝑀/𝐸) =
𝑃(𝐸)

460 23
= 𝑜𝑟 (𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚)
600 30

Example.
1. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P(D) = 0.83; the probability that
it arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is P(D ∩A)
= 0.78. Find the probability that a plane

(a) arrives on time, given that it departed on time, and

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐷) 0.78
𝑃(𝐴/𝐷) = = = 0.94
𝑃(𝐷) 0.83

(b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐷) 0.78
𝑃(𝐷/𝐴 ) = = = 0.95
𝑃 (𝐴) 0.82