Ben Frod
Ben Frod
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at .
http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp
.
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of
content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms
of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].
American Philosophical Society is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to
Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society.
http://www.jstor.org
ABSTRACT
First Digit
T itle _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ - _ _ _ - _ _ _ - _ _ _ -~ount C
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
A Rivers,Area 31.0 16.4 10.7 11.3 7.2 8.6 5.5 4.2 5.1 335
B Population 33.9 20.4 14.2 8.1 7.2 6.2 4.1 3.7 2.2 3259
C Constants 41.3 14.4 4.8 8.6 10.6 5.8 1.0 2.9 10.6 104
D Newspapers 30.0 18.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 100
E Spec.Heat 24.0 18.4 16.2 14.6 10.6 4.1 3.2 4.8 4.1 1389
F Pressure 29.6 18.3 12.8 9.8 8.3 6.4 5.7 4.4 4.7 703
G H.P. Lost 30.0 18.4 11.9 10.8 8.1 7.0 5.1 5.1 3.6 690
H Mol. Wgt. 26.7 25.2 15.4 10.8 6.7 5.1 4.1 2.8 3.2 1800
I Drainage 27.1 23.9 13.8 12.6 8.2 5.0 5.0 2.5 1.9 159
J AtomicWgt. 47.2 18.7 5.5 4.4 6.6 4.4 3.3 4.4 5.5 91
K n-, i/n,*.**25.7 20.3 9.7 6.8 6.6 6.8 7.2 8.0 8.9 5000
L Design 26.8 14.8 14.3 7.5 8.3 8.4 7.0 7.3 5.6 560
M Digest 33.4 18.5 12.4 7.5 7.1 6.5 5.5 4.9 4.2 308
N Cost Data 32.4 18.8 10.1 10.1 9.8 5.5 4.7 5.5 3.1 741
0 X-RayVolts 27.9 17.5 14.4 9.0 8.1 7.4 5.1 5.8 4.8 707
P Am. League 32.7 17.6 12.6 9.8 7.4 6.4 4.9 5.6 3.0 1458
Q Black Body 31.0 17.3 14.1 8.7 6.6 7.0 5.2 4.7 54 1165
R Addresses 28.9 19.2 12.6 8.8 8.5 6.4 5.6 5.0 5.0 342
S n',n2... n! 25.3 16.0 12.0 10.0 8.5 8.8 6.8 7.1 5.5 900
T Death Rate 27.0 18.6 15.7 9.4 6.7 6.5 7.2 4.8 4.1 418
Average. . . . . . .30.6 18.5 12.4 9.4 8.0 6.4 5.1 4.9 4.7 1011
Probable Error 4-0.8 +0.4 -0.4 +0.3 +-0.2 +-0.2 +-0.2 +-0.2 +0.3
= log
F Fb= Og ( ab?+ )/l1 + (2)
ab ,1og a
As an example,the probabilityFb of a 0 followinga first-place
5 in a randomnumberis the quotient
Fb = log0/ log .
1 lgabc abc
... p (q +1)
... pq
Fb = -3abc o (p+1))
log abc... oIp .. abc p
Here the frequencyof q depends upon all the digits that
precede it, but when all possible combinationsof these digits
are takeninto accountFq approachesequalityforall the digits
0, 1, 2, *.. 9, or
Fq 0.1. (4)
As a resultof this approach to uniformity in the qth place
the distributionof digitsin all places in an extensivetabula-
tion of multi-digitnumberswill be also nearlyuniform.
TABLE III
FREQUENCY OF DIGITS IN FIRST AND SECOND PLACES
0. 0.000 0.120
1. 0.301 0.114
2. 0.176 0.108
3. 0.125 0.104
4. 0.097 0.100
5. 0.079 0.097
6. 0.067 0.093
7... 0.058 0.090
8.... 0.051 0.088
9. 0.046 0.085
Reciprocals
Some tabulations of engineeringand scientificdata are
given in reciprocalform,such as candles per watt, and watts
per candle. If one formof tabulation followsa logarithmic
distribution,then the reciprocaltabulation will also have the
same distribution. A little considerationwill show that this
must followfordividingunityby a given set of numbersby
means of logarithmsleads to identicallogarithmswithmerely
a negativesign prefixed.
The Law ofAnomalousNumbers
A study of the itemsof Table I shows a distincttendency
forthose of a randomnatureto agreebetterwiththe logarith-
mic law than those of a formalor mathematicalnature. The
best agreementwas foundin the arabic numbers(not spelled
out) of consecutivefrontpage news items of a newspaper.
Dates were barred as not being variable, and the omissionof
spelled-outnumbersrestrictedthe counted digitsto numbers
10 and over. The first342 streetaddressesgiven in the cur-
rentAmericanMen ofScience (Item R, Table IV) gave excel-
lent agreement,and a complete count (except for dates and
page numbers)of an issue of the Readers' Digest was also in
agreement.
On the other hand, the greatest variations from the
logarithmicrelation were found in the firstdigits of mathe-
Nature Nature
FRfEQfJENVCY
Or
P/,Sr PLACC D/G/r3
0 OBSERVED
0.30
/ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 3
a
FIG. 1. Comparisonofobservedand computedfrequencies
formulti-digit
numbers.
LINEAR FREqU/NC/ES
FROM /Q000TO/0,000
1 2 3 4 5 67 89 /0
ArFOR/
8FOR 9
0.4
0O3
NA7VRAA NUMBER
FIG. 2. Linear frequencies
of the naturalnumbersystembetween10,000and
100,000.
Geometricand LogarithmicSeries
The close relationshipof a geometricseriesand a logarith-
micseriesis easilyseenand hardlyneedsformaldemonstration.
The uniformlyspaced ordinates of Fig. 2 forma geometric
series of numbersfor these numbershave a constant factor
betweenadjacent terms,and thisconstantfactoris determined
in size by the constantlogarithmicincrement.
Semi-LogCurves
A geometricseriesofnumbersplottedto a semi-logarithmic
scale gives a straightline. In the originaltabulation of ob-
served numbersthe line of data marked "R" is designated
simplyas "street addresses." These are the streetaddresses
ofthe first342 people mentionedin the currentAmericanMen
ofScience. The randomnessof such a list is hardlyto be dis-
puted, and it should thereforebe usefulforillustrativepur-
poses.
In Fig. 3 these addresses are firstindicatedby the height
of the lines at the base of the diagram. The heightof a line,
measured on the scale at the left,indicates the numberof
addresses at, or near, that streetnumber. Thus therewere
fiveaddressesat No. 29 on various streets. In orderto make
the trendclearer,the heightsof these lines were summed,be-
ginningat the leftand proceedingacross to the right. It was
found that four straightlines could be drawn among these
summationpoints with fair fidelityof trend,and these four
lines representfour geometricseries, each with a different
factorbetweenterms. Each line will give the observedfre-
I WIll
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
/0
/0 ___t_Q _08_C
FIG. 3. Distribution
and summation
offirst342streetaddresses,American
M
am r ~~~~~JECOND 7-I/RD
feL
A DwX w _ _ r 4 /Gr17L ORDER-O_ /
DTrAL OeRDCR
X I1 I 0 41 11;1
44 V0
XM
42C~~~~~~~ -Vtl=SW
1.2% rr/2 ;SS
II
I
I,
9 /0
FIG. 5. Continuous and discontinuousfunctionsin the neighborhoodof the
digit 9.
0.40 _
0. /O -
/ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8a9
ofsingledigits.
FIG. 6. Theoreticaland observedfrequencies
A1"' -
00
yddx +j 19
Y2d + 99
3 dx, (5)
wherethe ordinatesof the firstrisingsectionof the curve are
a - 88
Yi a (6)
F r = =[log 10 (2.10r1
r -
_1 1) +or 8 1N
tN11
loge
1
where oge [lge (a 1) 10- lori
Fa ~~a+ )10r -1 - _
TABLE V
THEORETICAL FREQUENCIES IN VARIOUS DIGITAL ORDERS
First Digit First Order Second Order Third Order Limiting Order
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Volume
Volume ~~Pages __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Total
Used Count
Frequencies, in Per Cent
1. S. H. E. E. All 55.1 22.7 12.3 5.0 2.4 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 586
2. Sm. Phy. Ta ....... All 56.3 22.1 6.6 6.1 5.0 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 181
3. II. derPhy.. 360 52.8 23.6 8.5 5.5 4.0 3.2 0.8 0.0 1.6 127
4. H. der Phy.. 360 37.2 25.7 12.1 9.5 4.8 5.2 2.6 2.2 0.9 230
5. H. der Phy.. 365 29.7 26.6 14.6 11.0 8.0 5.9 1.8 1.0 1.4 287
6. H. der Phy... . 361 19.5 17.4 17.7 11.9 11.3 9.2 6.1 5.8 1.1 293
7. H. derPhy... 360 33.0 27.5 11.8 10.7 4.3 5.9 2.8 2.4 1.6 254
8. H. derPhy... 360 56.8 23.2 6.7 7.6 2.4 1.4- 0.5 1.4 0.0 211
9. GlazebrookI ...... All 49.5 22.3 13.7 6.9 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.8 394
10. GlazebrookV ..... All 41.7 25.2 13.4 9.1 4.7 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.5 405
ObservedAve.43.2 23.6 11.8 8.3 4.9 3.9 1.9 1.6 0.8 2968
PredictedAve.39.3 25.7 13.3 8.1 5.3 3.6 2.4 1.5 0.8
Difference. +3.9 -2.1 -1.5 +0.2 -0.4 +0.3 -0.5 +0.1 0.0
Probable Error. 3.0 40.6 40.7 ?0.5 ?0.6 ?0.5 ?0.4 ?0.4 ?0.4
SummationofFrequencies
One ofthe conditionsthatmustbe metby theseexpressions
forthe frequenciesof the integersis that, in any one order,
the sum of the frequenciesmust equal unity;that is, the sum
of theirprobabilitiesmust equal certainty.
Selectingthe first-orderdigits,Eq. 11, and remembering
the logarithmicrule that the sum of the logarithmsof a group
of numbersis equal to the logarithmof theircombinedprod-
ucts, we have the probabilityP'
1023456789
P = logio 9102-345678
rs 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1-010 10 1010 10 10 10 10 N'
whichreducesto
Pt = log1010 + 0
=1.
In a similarmanner fromthe complete set of equations
SummaryofPart III
Single digits, regardlessof their relation to the decimal
point and also regardlessof precedingor followingzeros,have
a specific natural frequencythat varies sharply from the
logarithmicratios. The second digital order,which is com-
posed of two adjacent significantdigits, has a specificfre-
quency approximatingthe logarithmicfrequency; and for
three or more associated digitsthe variation fromthe latter
frequencywould be extremelydifficult to findstatistically.
The basic operation
F=f
F fda
a
or
F_ _a
a
in convertingfromthe linearfrequencyofthe naturalnumbers
to the logarithmicfrequencyofnaturalphenomenaand human
events can be interpretedas meaningthat, on the average,
these things proceed on a logarithmicor geometricscale.
Anotherway of interpreting this relationis to say that small
thingsare more numerousthan large things,and there is a
tendencyfor the step between sizes to be equal to a fixed
fractionofthe last precedingphenomenonor event. There is