Basic Statistics PDF
Basic Statistics PDF
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Data: are the values (measurements or observations) that the variables can assume. OR Facts or
figures from which the conclusion can be drawn.
Raw Data: Data sheets are where the data are originally recorded. Original data are called raw
data. Data sheets are often hand drawn, but they can also be printouts from database programs
like Microsoft Excel.
Population: The totality of all subjects with certain common characteristics that are
being studied in a specified time and place.
Sample: Is a portion of a population which is selected using some technique of sampling.
Sample must be representative of the population so that it must be selected by any of the
developed technique.
Sampling: Is the process of selecting units (e.g., people, households, organizations) from a
population of interest so that by studying the sample we may fairly generalize our results back to
the population from which they were chosen.
Sample size: The number of elements or observation to be included in the sample.
Parameter: Any measure computed from the data of a population.
Example: Populations mean ( ) and population standard deviation ( )
Statistic: Any measure computed from the sample.
()
Example: sample mean x , sample standard deviation (S )
Survey: A collection of quantitative information about members of a population when no special
control is exercised over any of the factors influencing the variable of interest.
Sample survey: A survey that include only a portion of the population.
Census: A collection of information about every member of a population
Sample survey has the following advantages over census
Sample survey saves time and cost
Has great accuracy
Avoid wastage of material
Variable: A variable is a characteristic or attribute that can assume different values. Variables
whose values are determined by chance are called random variables. Variables are often
specified according to their type and intended use and hence variable can be classified in to two
namely qualitative and quantitative variables.
A quantitative variable is naturally measured as a number for which meaningful arithmetic
operations make sense. Examples: Height, age, crop yield, GPA, salary, temperature, area,
air pollution index (measured in parts per million), etc.
Qualitative variable: Any variable that is not quantitative is qualitative. Qualitative
variables take a value that is one of several possible categories. As naturally measured,
qualitative variables have no numerical meaning. Examples: Hair color, gender, field of
study, marital status, political affiliation, status of disease infection.
Quantitative variables can be classified as discrete and continuous variable. Discrete variables
can assume certain numerical values. That is, there are gaps between the possible values. Such as
0, 1, 2...It may be countable finite or countable infinite. For example the number of students in a
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classroom, number of children a family. Continuous variable can take any value within a
specified interval with a finite enough measuring device. No gaps between possible values. They
are obtained by measuring. For example, consider the heights of two people no matter how close
it is we can find another person whose height falls somewhere between the two heights is a
continuous variable.
1.4 Who Uses Statistics?
Statistical techniques are used extensively by marketing, accounting, quality control, consumers,
professional sports people, hospital administrators, educators, politicians, physicians, etc...
Generally Statistics can be used:
• As a tool in scientific research. Statistical methods can be applied on the data which are
collected to make conclusions, predictions or inferences.
• As a tool for quality control of a product. There statistical methods which are designed
to check whether a product satisfies a given standard or not.
• As a science of decision making under the scenario of uncertainty. Statistics helps to
facilitate the power of decision making particularly for managers by providing sufficient
information.
• statistics helps identification and determination of functional relationship among
variables.
1.5 Applications of statistics
Apart from helping elicit an intelligent assessment from a body of figures and facts,
statistics is indispensable tool for any scientific enquiry-right from the stage of planning
enquiry to the stage of conclusion. It applies almost all sciences: pure and applied,
physical natural, biological, medical, agricultural and engineering. It also finds
applications in social and management sciences, in commerce, business and industry.
In almost all fields of human endeavor.
Almost all human beings in their daily life are subjected to obtaining numerical facts.
Applicable in some process e.g. invention of certain drugs, extent of environmental
pollution.
In industries especially in quality control area.
Assignments:
Describe briefly the applications of statistics in your field of study and other fields?
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Chapter Two
Methods of data collection and Presentation
Once it is decide what type of study is to be made, it becomes necessary to collected information
about the concerned study, mostly in the form of data. In order to generate valid conclusion from
a data, information has to be collected in a systematic manner. Whatever the quality of sampling
and analysis method, a haphazardly collected dataset is less likely to produce valuable and
generalizable information.
Types of Data:
There are two types (sources) for the collection of data.
(1). Primary data
The primary data are the first hand information collected, compiled and published by
organization for some purpose. They are most original data in character and have not
undergone any sort of statistical treatment.
Refer to those that are collected by conducting survey to meet the specific problem needs at
hand.
Example: Population census reports are primary data because these are collected, complied and
published by the population census organization.
(2). Secondary data -
The secondary data are the second hand information which are already collected by someone
(organization) for some purpose and are available for the present study. The secondary data
are not pure in character and have undergone some treatment at least once.
data taken from already available published or unpublished source.
2.1 Methods of collection
There are three major methods of data collection
1. Self-administered questionnaire
2. Direct investigation-measurement (observation) of the subject and interviewing(face-to-
face, telephone, --- )
3. Use of documentary source
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1. Self-administered questionnaire
Questionnaire is the main data collection instrument in formal sample survey. Before
examining the steps in designing a questionnaire we need to review the types of questions used
in questionnaires.
Depending on the amount of freedom given to respondent in offering responses, there are two
basic types of questions that can be used in questionnaires: open-ended questions and closed
ended questions.
Open-ended questions: - allows the respondent to answer it freely in his or her own words
Example: what do you think are the reasons for a high drop-out rate of village health
committee members?
Closed – ended questions:-
Predetermined list of alternate responses is presented to the respondent for checking the
appropriate one(s). It implies that the respondent’s answers are restricted in some way to a
limited range of alternatives.
Direct investigation
I. Measurement or/and observation
data can be obtained through direct observation or measurement
provides accurate information but it is expensive and inconvenient
eg: Land area measurement, Animal weight gain, Physical examination, direct
observation of work.
a) Interview: Face-to-face interview and telephone interview
3. The use of documentary source
Extracting information from existing resources.
Is much less expensive than any other two sources
It is difficult to get the information needed when records are compiled in unstandardized
manner.
Example: - Hospital records, professional institutes, Official statistics, - - -
2.2 Methods of Data Presentation
This topic introduces tabular and graphical methods commonly used to summarize both
qualitative and quantitative data. Tabular and graphical summaries of data can be obtained in
annual reports, newspaper articles and research studies.
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Everyone is exposed to these types of presentations, so it is important to understand how they are
prepared and how they will be interpreted.
Classification of Data: The process of arranging data into homogenous group or classes
according to some common characteristics present in the data is called classification.
For Example: The process of sorting letters in a post office, the letters are classified according
to the regions and further arranged according to zones, cities, etc.
2.2.4 Frequency distribution
A frequency distribution is the organization of row data in table form, using classes and
frequencies. There are three basic types of frequency distributions, and there
are specific procedures for constructing each type. The three types are categorical, ungrouped
and grouped frequency distributions.
The reasons for constructing a frequency distribution are as follows
To organize the data in a meaningful, intelligible way.
To enable the reader to determine the nature or shape of the distribution
To facilitate computational procedures for measures of average and spread
To enable the researcher to draw charts and graphs for the presentation of data
To enable the reader to make comparisons between different data set
2.2.4.1. Categorical Frequency Distribution
The categorical frequency distribution is used for data which can be placed in specific categories
such as nominal or ordinal level data. For example, data such as data such as political affiliation,
religious affiliation, or major field of study would use categorical frequency distribution.
The major components of categorical frequency distribution are class, tally and frequency.
Example: There are 15 workers having diploma, 20 workers having B.Sc, 10 works having M.Sc
and 5 workers having Ph.D. Present the data using appropriate method of presentation?
No Name LOE
1 Abebe Diploma
2 Wordofa B.Sc
3 Toga M.Sc
4 Kahay PhD
5 Ahmed Diploma
6 Hirut B.Sc
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“ ” “
“ “ “
“ “ “
0 Kassech Ph.D
Solution:
LOE NO Relative F. Percentage
Diploma 15 0.3 30%
Bachelor 20 0.4 40%
Master 10 0.2 20%
Ph.D 5 0.1 10%
Total 50 1 100%
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A. Since this data set contains only a relatively small number of distinct or different
values, it is convenient to represent it in a frequency table which presents each distinct
value along with its frequency of occurrence.
B. Since 12 of the 50workers had no days of sick leave, the answer is 50-12=38
C. The answer is the sum of the frequencies for values 3, 4 and 5 that is 4+5+8=17
2.2.4.3. Grouped Frequency Distribution
Some of basic terms that are most frequently used while we deal with frequency distribution are
the following:
Lower Class Limits are the smallest number that can belong to the different class.
Upper Class Limits are the largest number that can belong to the different classes.
Class Boundaries are the number used to separate classes, but without the gaps created by
class limits.
Class midpoints are the midpoints of the classes. Each class midpoint can be found by
adding the lower class limit to the upper class limit and dividing the sum by 2.
Class width is the difference between two consecutive lower class limits or two
consecutive lower class boundaries.
When the range of the data is large, the data must be grouped in which each class has more than
one unit in width. While we construct this frequency distribution, we have to follow the
following steps.
1. Identify the largest and lowest values
2. Find number of classes by using formula;
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Struge’s rule, where the number of class is and is the number
of observations.
3. Find the range; or and Find the class width
by dividing the range by the number of classes
Note that: Round the answer up to the nearest whole number if there is a reminder. For
instance, and
4. Select the starting point as the lowest class limit. This is usually the lowest score
(observation). Add the width to that score to get the lower class limit of the next class.
Keep adding until you achieve the number of desired class calculated in step 3.
5. Find the upper class limit; subtract unit of measurement from the lower class limit of
the second class in order to get the upper limit of the first class. Then add the width to
each upper class limit to get all upper class limits.
Unit of measurement: Is the next expected upcoming value. For instance, 28, 23, 52, and
then the unit of measurement is one. Because take one datum arbitrarily, say 23, then the
next upcoming value will be 24. Therefore, If the data is 24.12, 30, 21.2
then give priority to the datum with more decimal place. Take 24.12 and guess the next
possible value. It is 24.13. Therefore, .
Note that: is the maximum value of unit of measurement and is the value when we
don’t have a clue about the data.
6. Find the class boundaries.
Example 2.3: Consider the following set of data and construct the frequency distribution.
11 29 6 33 14 21 18 17 22 38
31 22 27 19 22 23 26 39 34 27
Steps
1.
2.
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3. Select starting point. Take the minimum which is 6 then add width 6 on it to get the next
class LCL.
6 12 18 24 30 36
4. Upper class limit. Since unit of measurement is one. So 11 is the UCL of the
first class.
11 17 23 29 35 41
5. Complete the frequency distribution as
Class limit 6-11 12-17 18-23 24-29 30-35 36-41
Class Boundaries 5.5-11.5 11.5-17.5 17.5-23.5 23.5-29.5 29.5-35.5 35.5-41.5
Frequency 2 2 7 4 3 2
Example: find the cumulative frequency of example 2.3.
Relative frequency distribution enables us to understand the distribution of the data and to
compare different sets of data.
2.6. Graphical and Diagrammatic Presentation of Data
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We have discussed the techniques of classification and tabulation that help us in organizing the
collected data in a meaningful fashion. However, this way of presentation of statistical data does
not always prove to be interesting to a layman. Too many figures are often confusing and fail to
convey the massage effectively.
One of the most effective and interesting alternative way in which a statistical data may be
presented is through diagrams and graphs. There are several ways in which statistical data may
be displayed pictorially such as different types of graphs and diagrams.
2.6.1. Diagrammatic display of data: Pie-chart and Bar charts
I. Pie chart
Pie chart can used to compare the relation between the whole and its components. Pie chart is a
circular diagram and the area of the sector of a circle is used in pie chart. Circles are drawn with
radii proportional to the square root of the quantities because the area of a circle is . To
construct a pie chart (sector diagram), we draw a circle with radius (square root of the total). The
total angle of the circle is . The angles of each component are calculated by the formula.
These angles are made in the circle by mean of a protractor to show different components. The
arrangement of the sectors is usually anti-clock wise.
Example2.4: The following table gives the details of monthly budget of a family. Represent
these figures by a suitable diagram.
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II. Bar Charts
The bar graph uses vertical or horizontal bars to represent the frequencies of a distribution. While
we draw bar chart, we have to consider the following two points. These are
Make the bars the same width
Make the units on the axis that are used for the frequency equal in size
Example 2.5: Draw simple bar diagram to represent the profits of a bank for 5 years.
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2.5.2. Graphical presentation of data: Histogram and Frequency Polygon
Statistical graphs can be used to describe the data set or to analyze it. Graphs are also useful in
getting the audience’s attention in a publication or a speaking presentation.
The two most commonly used graphs in research are
(1). Histogram
Histogram is a special type of bar graph in which the horizontal scale represents classes of data
values and the vertical scale represents frequencies. The height of the bars correspond to the
frequency values, and the drawn adjacent to each other (without gaps).
We can construct a histogram after we have first completed a frequency distribution table for a
data set. The axis is reserved for the class boundaries.
7.0
6.0
5.0
Frequency 4. 0
3.0
2.0
1.0
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Relative frequency histogram has the same shape and horizontal ( ) scale as a histogram,
but the vertical ( ) scale is marked with relative frequencies instead of actual frequencies.
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
2.5 8.5 14.5 20.5 26.5 32.5 38.5 44.5
Midpoints
ChapterThree
Measures of central tendency are measures of the location of the middle or the center of a
distribution. The definition of "middle" or "center" is purposely left somewhat vague so
that the term "central tendency" can refer to a wide variety of measures.
❖ The tendency of statistical data to get concentrated at certain value is called central
tendency. And various methods that determine the actual value at which the data tend to
concentrate are called measure of central tendency.
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❖ One of the most important objectives of statistical analysis is to get one single
value that describes the characteristics of the entire data. Such a value is called the
central value or average.
❖ When we want to make comparison between groups of numbers it is good to have a
single value that is considered to be a good representative of each group. This single
value is called the average of the group.
❖ Averages are also called measures of central tendency.
Objectives:
1. To comprehend the data easily i.e. to condensed the mass of data in to one single
value.
2. To facilitate comparison.
3. To make further statistical analysis.
3.2 Characteristic of a good measure of central tendency
(A typical average should posses the following):
It should be defined rigidly which means that it should have a definite value.
It should be based on all observation under investigation.
It should be not be affected by extreme observations.
It should be capable of further algebraic treatment.
It should be as little as affected by fluctuations of sampling or should be stable with
sampling.
It should be ease to calculate and simple to understand.
It should be unique and always exist.
Note:-There is no measure satisfied all the above condition!
3.3 Types of measures of central tendency
Three types of measures of central tendency
The Mean
The Mode
The Median
The choice of these averages depends up on which best fit the property under discussion.
When the data are arranged or given in the form of frequency distribution i.e. there
are k variate values such that a value X i has a frequency f i ( i=1,2,---,k) ,then the
Arithmetic mean will be
f i Xi
∑
k
f i= n
X= i=1 Where k is the number of classes and
k i= 1
f i=1
i
fY i i
X= i=1
n
Where Y i = the class mark of the ith class and fi = the frequency of the ith
f
i=1
i
class
Example 4.2:
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years(X):
No. of males
2 1 4 8 10 12 17 19 18 14 13 12 130
(f):
X. f 36 19 80 168 220 276 408 475 468 378 364 348 3240
f i Xi
3240
X= i=1
k
= = 24.92308
f
130
i
i=1
fY i i
1775
X= i=1
n
= = 17.75
f
100
i
i=1
Weighted Mean
- When a proper importance is desired to be given to different data a weighted mean is
appropriate.
- Weights are assigned to each item in proportion to its relative importance.
- Let X1, X2, …Xn be the value of items of a series and W1, W2, …Wn their corresponding
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n
X W
i=1
i i
X w = n
W i=1
i
Example 4.5: A student obtained the following marks in his examinations: English 60,
Biology 75, Physics 59 and Chemistry 55. find the students weighted mean if weights 1, 2,
1, 3 and 3 respectively allotted to the subjects.
Solution:
n
X w i i
60 1 + 75 2 + 63 1 + 59 3 + 55 3 615
Xw = i =1
= = = 61.5
n
1+ 2 +1+ 3 + 3
w
10
i
i =1
If data are given in the shape of continuous frequency distribution, the mode is defined as:
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Δ1
Xˆ = Lmod + ( )W
Δ1 + Δ2
Example 4.7: The following is the distribution of the size of certain farms selected at
random from a district. Calculate the mode of the distribution.
Class Frequency
6- 10 15
11- 15 23
16- 20 35
21- 25 12
26- 30 9
31- 35 6
total 100
Modal class is a class with the highest frequency. Thus, modal class is 16- 20
Δ1 12
Xˆ = Lmod + ( )W = 15.5 + 5 = 17.21
Δ1 + Δ2 12 + 23
4.3.3 The Median
- In a distribution, median is the value of the variable which divides it in to two equal
halves.
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- In an ordered series of data median is an observation lying exactly in the middle of the
series. It is the middle most value in the sense that the number of values less than the
median is equal to the number of values greater than it.
-If X1, X2, …Xn be the observations, then the numbers arranged in ascending order will be
X[1], X[2], …X[n], where X[i] is ith smallest value.
X[1]< X[2]< …<X[n]
➢
-Median is denoted by. X
Median for grouped data.
-If data are given in the shape of continuous frequency distribution, the median is defined
as:
~ W n
X = Lmed + ( − fc )
f med 2
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~
Empirical relationship between X, Xˆ, and X
~
• X = Xˆ = X , for symmetrical distribution
( ~
)
• X − Xˆ = 3 X − X , for uni-modal skewed or asymmetrical frequency distribution.
The Variance
Population Variance
If we divide the variation by the number of values in the population, we get something called the
population variance. This variance is the "average squared deviation from the mean".
N
( xi − u ) 2
Population Variance = = i =1
, i = 1,2,3,..., N
2
N
Sample Variance
One would expect the sample variance to simply be the population variance with the population
mean replaced by the sample mean. However, one of the major uses of statistics is to estimate
the corresponding parameter. This formula has the problem that the estimated value isn't the
same as the parameter. To counteract this, the sum of the squares of the deviations is divided by
one less than the sample size.
n
( xi − x ) 2
Sample Variance = i =1
n −1
2
I.e. The sample variance, denoted by s , of a set of n observed values having a mean x is the
sum of the squared deviations divided by n − 1 .
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5. Since the data is a sample, divide the number (from step 4 above) by the number of
observations minus one, i.e., n-1 (where n is equal to the number of observations in the data
set).
For the case of frequency distribution it is expressed as:
n
f i ( xi − x) 2
= i =1
2
s n −1
We usually use the following short cut formula.
n 2
2
x − nx
i =1
=
2 i
s n −1
, for raw data
n 2
f x − nx
2
i
= i =1
for frequency distribiti on, where fi = n
2 i
s n −1
,
Standard Deviation
There is a problem with variances. Recall that the deviations were squared. That means that the
units were also squared. To get the units back the same as the original data values, the square
root must be taken.
population s tan dard deviation = =
2
Class Frequency
40-44 7
45-49 10
50-54 22
55-59 15
60-64 12
65-69 6
70-74 3
Coefficient of Variation (C.V)
• Is defined as the ratio of standard deviation to the mean usually expressed as percents.
S
C.V = 100 0
0
X
• The distribution having less C.V is said to be less variable or more consistent.
Examples:
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1. An analysis of the monthly wages paid (in Birr) to workers in two firms A and B belonging to the
same industry gives the following results
Value Firm A Firm B
Mean wage 52.5 47.5
Median wage 50.5 45.5
Variance 100 121
In which firm A or B is there greater variability in individual wages?
Solutions: Calculate coefficient of variation for both firms.
SA 10
C.VA = 100 0 0 = 100 0 0 = 19.05 0 0
XA 52.5
SB 11
C.VB = 100 0 0 = 100 0 0 = 23.16
XB 47.5
Since C.V < C.V , in firm B there is greater variability in individual wages
A B .
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Independent Events: Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not
affect the probability of the other occurring.
Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the first event affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second event in a way the probability is changed.
4.3. Counting Rules
In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know
• The number of elements of an event
• The number of elements of the sample space.
That is in order to judge what is probable, we have to know what is possible.
• In order to determine the number of outcomes, one can use several rules of counting.
- The addition rule
- The multiplication rule
- Permutation rule
- Combination rule
Addition Rule
If event A can occur in m possible ways and event B can occur in n possible ways, there are m + n
possible ways for either event A or event B to occur, but only if there are no events in common
between them.
I.e. n (A or B) =n (A) +n (B)-n (A B)
• To list the outcomes of the sequence of events, a useful device called tree diagram is used.
Example: A student goes to the nearest snack to have a breakfast. He can take tea, coffee, or milk
with bread, cake and sandwich. How many possibilities does he have?
Solutions:
Tea
Bread Coffee Milk
Bread Bread
Cake Cake
Cake
Sandwich Sandwich
Sandwich
➢ There are nine Possibility
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Example: Ethiopian Airlines recently supplied the following information on their commuter
flights from AA to New York:
Arrival Frequency
Early 100
On time 800
Late 75
Canceled 25
Total 1000
If A is the event that a flight arrives early, then P(A) = 100/1000 = 0.1.
If B is the event that a flight arrives late, then P(B) = 75/1000 = 0.075.
The probability that a flight is either early or late is P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) = 0.1 + 0.075
=0.175.
2. Multiplication Rule:
If a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be made in n1 ways, the second can be made
in n2 ways…, the kthcan be made in nkways, then the whole choice can be made in
( n1 n2 ,...,nk ) ways.
Example 4.1: 1) A student has two shoes, three trousers and three jackets. In how many can be
dressed?
3. Permutation
An arrangement of n objects in a specified order is called permutation of the objects.
2. The arrangement of n objects in a specified order using r objects at a time is called the
permutation of n objects taken r objects at a time. It is written as n P r and the formula is
n!
Pr =
n
(n − r )!
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Example: Given the letters A, B, C, and D list the permutation and combination for selecting two
letters.
Solutions: Combination:
Permutation:
AB BA CA DA AB BC
AC BC CB DB AC BD
AD BD CD DC AD DC
Note that in permutation AB is different from BA. But in combination AB is the same as BA.
Combination Rule
The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is denoted by nC r or (nr ) and
is given by the formula:
n!
nCr =
(n − r )!r!
Example: 1. In how many ways can a committee of 5 people be chosen out of 9 people?
2. A committee of 5 people must be selected out 5men and 8 women. In how many
ways can be selection made if there are three women on the committee?
4.4. Approaches to measuring Probability
a. The classical approach
Classical probability is based on the assumption that the outcomes of an experiment are equally
likely.
• Using this classical viewpoint,
N A n( A) No. of outcomes favourable for A
P ( A) = = =
N n(s ) Total Number of outcomes
Example 4.4: 1.A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting
a) Number 4?
b) An odd number?
c) Number greater than 4?
2. A box of 80 candles consists of 30 defective and 50 non defective candles. If 10 of these
candles are selected at random, what is the probability?
a) All will be defective.
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b) 6 will be non defective
c) All will be non defective
2. Frequencies Approach
The probability of an event A is the proportion of outcomes favorable to A in the long run when
the experiment is repeated under same condition. The probability of an event happening in the
long run is determined by observing what fraction of the time like events happened in the past.
Example 4.5: Throughout her career Professor Jones has awarded 186 A’s out of the 1200
students she has taught. What is the probability that a student in her section this semester will
receive an A?
By applying the relative frequency concept, the probability of an A= 186/1200= 0.155
3. Subjective Approach
The likelihood (probability) of a particular event happening that is assigned by an individual
based on whatever information is available.
Examples of subjective probability are estimating the probability the Arsenal will win the
Premier League next year and estimating the probability of an earthquake in Maputo this year.
Joint Probability: is a probability that measures the likelihood that two or more events will
happen concurrently. An example would be the event that a student has both a PC and Phone
in his or her dorm room.
Example: Chali owns two stocks which are independent of each other. The probability that
stock A increases in value next year is 0 .5. The probability that stock B will increase in value
next year is 0 .7.
What is the probability that both stocks increase in value next year?
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P(A and B) = (0.5)(0.7) = 0.35.
Conditional Events: If the occurrence of one event has an effect on the next occurrence of the
other event then the two events are conditional or dependant events.
Example: The Dean of the School of Business at AAU collected the following information
about undergraduate students in her college:
Major Male Female Total
Accounting 170 110 280
Finance 120 100 220
Marketing 160 70 230
Management 150 120 270
Total 600 400 1000
Solution: If a student is selected at random, what is the probability that the student is a female
accounting major? P(A and F) = 110/1000. Given that the student is a female, what is the
probability that she is an accounting major?
P(A|F) = [P(A and F)]/[P(F)]= [110/1000]/[400/1000] = 0.275.
Bayes’ Theorem
Bayes’ Theorem is given by the formula:
P
(A)
*
1P(
B|)
A1
P
(
A|
B
1)=
P(
A)
*
1P(
B 1+
|)(
A P
A2)
*P(
B|
A2)
Example: BGI Beer Company has received several complaints that their bottles are under-filled.
A complaint was received today but the production manager is unable to identify which of the
two plants (A or B) filled this bottle. What is the probability that the under filled bottle came
from plant A?
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Complaints % of total production % of under-filled bottles
A 55 3
B 45 4
Example: Consider an experiment of tossed a fair of coin three times. Let the random
variable X be the number of heads in three tosses, then find X?
Random variables are of two types:
1. Discrete random variable: are variables which can assume only a specific number of
values. They have values that can be counted
Examples:
• Toss a coin n time and count the number of heads.
• Number of children in a family.
• Number of car accidents per week.
• Number of defective items in a given company.
• Number of bacteria per two cubic centimeter of water.
2. Continuous random variable: are variables that can assume all values between any
two give values.
Examples:
• Height of students at certain college.
• Mark of a student.
• Life time of light bulbs.
• Length of time required to complete a given training.
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Probability distribution:- consists of a value a random variable can assume and the
corresponding probabilities of the values or it is a function that assigns probability for
each element of random variable.
Probability distribution can be discrete or continues.
A) Discrete probability distribution:- is a formula, a table, a graph or other devices
used to specify all possible values of the discrete random variable(R.V) X along with
their respective probabilities.
Example: Consider the experiment of tossing a coin three times. Let X be the number of
heads. Construct the probability distribution of X.
2) A balanced die is tossed two twice, construct a probability distribution if
A) X is the sum the number of spots in the two trials.
B) X is the absolute difference of the number of spots in the trials.
Properties of discrete probability distribution
n
1) P( X = x ) = 1
i =1
i
2) P( X = xi ) 0 or 0 P( X = xi ) 1
3) If X is discrete random variable then
b −1
P(a X b ) = P( x)
X = a +1
b −1
P(a X b ) = P( x)
X =a
b
P(a X b ) = P( x)
X = a +1
b
P(a X b ) = P( x)
X =a
2. Let X be a continuous random variable assuming the values in the interval (a, b) such
b
that f (x )d (x) =1,then
a
b
E ( X ) = X . f ( x)d ( x)
a
( )
Variance of X=Var(x) = E X 2 − ( E ( X )) 2
Where
n
E ( X 2 ) = X i .P( X i )
2
If X is discrete
i =1
= X 2 f (x )d ( x) if X is continuous
x
Example:
32
1. What is the expected value and Variance of a random variable X obtained by
tossing a coin three times where X is the number of heads?
2. Let X be a continuous R.V with distribution
1
x 0 x2
f ( x) = 2
0, otherwise
b) E(x)
c. Var(x)
d. E (3x 2 − 2 x)
1. Binomial Distribution
A binomial experiment is a probability experiment that satisfies the following four
requirements called assumptions of a binomial distribution.
1. The experiment consists of n identical trials.
2. Each trial has only one of the two possible mutually exclusive outcomes, success or a
failure.
3. The probability of each outcome does not change from trial to trial, and
4. The trials are independent, thus we must sample with replacement.
Examples of binomial experiments
• Tossing a coin 20 times to see how many tails occur.
• Asking 200 people if they watch BBC news.
• Registering a newly produced product as defective or non defective.
• Asking 100 people if they favor the ruling party.
• Rolling a die to see if a 5 appears.
Definition: The outcomes of the binomial experiment and the corresponding
probabilities of these outcomes are called Binomial Distribution.
Let p=probability of success q= 1-p=probability of failure on any given trials
Then the probability getting x success in n trials becomes
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n x n − x
. p q x = 0,1,3,....n
P( X = x ) = x
0 otherwise
And this sometimes written as
X ~ Bin (n, p )
When using the binomial formula to solve problems, we have to identify three things:
• The number of trials (n)
• The probability of a success on any one trial (P) and
• The number of successes desired (X).
Remark: If X is a binomial random variable with parameters n and p then
E(X)=np and var(X)=npq
Example:
1. The Department of Civil Service for the state of Gambella reports that 20% of the workforce
in is unemployed. From a sample of 14 workers, calculate the following probabilities using
the formula for the binomial probability distribution (n=14, p =.2,
– three are unemployed: P(x=3)=.250
– Note: These are also examples of cumulative probability distributions:
– three or more are unemployed:
– P(x >3)=0.250 +0.172 +0.086 +0.032 +0.009 +0.002=0.551
– at least one of the workers is unemployed: P(x >1) = 1-P(x=0) =1-0.044 =0 .956
– at most two of the workers are unemployed: P(x<2)=0.044 +0.154 +0.250 =0.448
Exercises
1. What is the probability of getting three heads by tossing a fair con four times?
2. Suppose that an examination consists of six true and false questions, and assume that a student has
no knowledge of the subject matter. The probability that the student will guess the correct answer
to the first question is 30%. Likewise, the probability of guessing each of the remaining questions
correctly is also 30%.
a) What is the probability of getting more than three correct answers?
b) What is the probability of getting at least two correct answers?
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2. Poisson Distribution
- A random variable X is said to have a Poisson distribution if its probability distribution is given
by:
x . −
x = 0,1,2.....
P( X = x) = x! Where is the average number occurrence of an
0
otherwise
event in the unit length of interval or distance and x is the number of occurrence in
a Poisson process
- The Poisson distribution depends only on the average number of occurrences per unit
time of space.
- The Poisson distribution is used as a distribution of rare events, such as:
• Number of misprints.
• Natural disasters like earth quake.
• Accidents.
• Hereditary.
• Arrivals
• Number of misprints per page
- The process that gives rise to such events is called Poisson process.
- If X is a Poisson random variable with parameters λ then
E(x) = λ, var(x)= λ
Example:
1. The Sylvania Urgent Care facility specializes in caring for minor injuries, colds, and flu. For
the evening hours of 6-10 PM the mean number of arrivals is 4.0 per hour. What is the
probability of 4 arrivals in an hour? P(X= 4) = (44)(e-4)/4! = 0.1954.
2. If 1.6 accidents can be expected an intersection on any given day, what is the probability that
there will be 3 accidents on any given day?
3. A sale firm receives, on the average, 3 calls per hour on its toll-free number. For any given
hour, what is probability that it will receive the following at most 3 calls?
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Common Continuous Probability Distributions
1. Normal Distribution
A random variable X is said to have a normal distribution if its probability density
function is given by
x−
2
f (x ) =
1 −1
.e 2
where − x , − , 0
2
f (x ) =
1
2
2. It is asymptotic to the axis, i.e., it extends indefinitely in either direction from the mean.
3. It is a continuous distribution i.e. there is no gaps or holes.
4. It is a family of curves, i.e., every unique pair of mean and standard deviation defines a different
normal distribution. Thus, the normal distribution is completely described by two parameters:
mean and standard deviation.
5. Total area under the curve sums to 1, i.e., the area of the distribution on each side of the mean is
0.5 f ( x)d (x ) = 1
−
−1 2
X −
Z=
f (z ) =
1
e 2
Z
( )
i.e. if X ~ N , 2 then Z ~ (0,1)
2
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Same as a normal distribution, but also...
• Mean is zero
• Variance is one
• Standard Deviation is one
- Areas under the standard normal distribution curve have been tabulated in various ways.
The most common ones are the areas between Z=0 and a positive value of Z.
- Given a normal distributed random variable X with Mean μ and standard deviation σ
a− X − b−
P(a X b ) = P
a− b−
P Z
Examples:
1. Find the area under the standard normal distribution which lies
Solution:
Solution:
Area = P(−1.45 Z 0)
= P(0 Z 1.45)
= 0.4265
Solution:
37
Area = P( Z −0.35)
= P(−0.35 Z 0) + P( Z 0)
= P(0 Z 0.35) + P( Z 0)
= 0.1368 + 0.50 = 0.6368
Solution:
Area = P( Z −0.35)
= 1 − P( Z −0.35)
= 1 − 0.6368 = 0.3632
Solution:
Solution:
38
Solution
Solution
P ( Z z ) = 0.9868
= P( Z 0) + P(0 Z z )
= 0.50 + P(0 Z z )
P(0 Z z ) = 0.9868 − 0.50 = 0.4868
and from table
P(0 Z 2.2) = 0.4868
z = 2.2
3. A random variable X has a normal distribution with mean 80 and standard deviation 4.8.
What is the probability that it will take a value
Solution
39
X − 87.2 −
P ( X 87.2) = P ( )
87.2 − 80
= P( Z )
4.8
= P ( Z 1.5)
= P ( Z 0) + P (0 Z 1.5)
= 0.50 + 0.4332 = 0.9332
b)
X − 76.4 −
P ( X 76.4) = P ( )
76.4 − 80
= P( Z )
4.8
= P ( Z −0.75)
= P ( Z 0) + P (0 Z 0.75)
= 0.50 + 0.2734 = 0.7734
c)
81.2 − X − 86.0 −
P(81.2 X 86.0) = P( )
81.2 − 80 86.0 − 80
= P( Z )
4.8 4.8
= P(0.25 Z 1.25)
= P(0 Z 1.25) − P(0 Z 1.25)
= 0.3934 − 0.0987 = 0.2957
4. A normal distribution has mean 62.4.Find its standard deviation if 20.0% of the area under
the normal curve lies to the right of 72.9
Solution
40
X − 72.9 −
P( X 72.9) = 0.20 P( ) = 0.20
72.9 − 62.4
P( Z ) = 0.20
10.5
P( Z ) = 0.20
10.5
P (0 Z ) = 0.50 − 0.20 = 0.30
And from table P(0 Z 0.84) = 0.30
10.5
= 0.84
= 12.5
5. A random variable has a normal distribution with = 5 .Find its mean if the probability
that the random variable will assume a value less than 52.5 is 0.6915.
Solution
52.5 −
P( Z z ) = P( Z ) = 0.6915
5
P (0 Z z ) = 0.6915 − 0.50 = 0.1915.
But from the table
P (0 Z 0.5) = 0.1915
52.5 −
z= = 0. 5
5
= 50
Exercise: Of a large group of men, 5% are less than 60 inches in height and 40% are between 60
& 65 inches. Assuming a normal distribution, find the mean and standard deviation of heights.
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Area between 0 and z
Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.0080 0.0120 0.0160 0.0199 0.0239 0.0279 0.0319 0.0359
0.1 0.0398 0.0438 0.0478 0.0517 0.0557 0.0596 0.0636 0.0675 0.0714 0.0753
0.2 0.0793 0.0832 0.0871 0.0910 0.0948 0.0987 0.1026 0.1064 0.1103 0.1141
0.3 0.1179 0.1217 0.1255 0.1293 0.1331 0.1368 0.1406 0.1443 0.1480 0.1517
0.4 0.1554 0.1591 0.1628 0.1664 0.1700 0.1736 0.1772 0.1808 0.1844 0.1879
0.5 0.1915 0.1950 0.1985 0.2019 0.2054 0.2088 0.2123 0.2157 0.2190 0.2224
0.6 0.2257 0.2291 0.2324 0.2357 0.2389 0.2422 0.2454 0.2486 0.2517 0.2549
0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852
0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133
0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389
1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621
1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
1.2 0.3849 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925 0.3944 0.3962 0.3980 0.3997 0.4015
1.3 0.4032 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099 0.4115 0.4131 0.4147 0.4162 0.4177
1.4 0.4192 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251 0.4265 0.4279 0.4292 0.4306 0.4319
1.5 0.4332 0.4345 0.4357 0.4370 0.4382 0.4394 0.4406 0.4418 0.4429 0.4441
1.6 0.4452 0.4463 0.4474 0.4484 0.4495 0.4505 0.4515 0.4525 0.4535 0.4545
1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633
1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767
2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817
2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4834 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857
2.2 0.4861 0.4864 0.4868 0.4871 0.4875 0.4878 0.4881 0.4884 0.4887 0.4890
2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916
2.4 0.4918 0.4920 0.4922 0.4925 0.4927 0.4929 0.4931 0.4932 0.4934 0.4936
2.5 0.4938 0.4940 0.4941 0.4943 0.4945 0.4946 0.4948 0.4949 0.4951 0.4952
2.6 0.4953 0.4955 0.4956 0.4957 0.4959 0.4960 0.4961 0.4962 0.4963 0.4964
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2.7 0.4965 0.4966 0.4967 0.4968 0.4969 0.4970 0.4971 0.4972 0.4973 0.4974
2.8 0.4974 0.4975 0.4976 0.4977 0.4977 0.4978 0.4979 0.4979 0.4980 0.4981
2.9 0.4981 0.4982 0.4982 0.4983 0.4984 0.4984 0.4985 0.4985 0.4986 0.4986
3.0 0.4987 0.4987 0.4987 0.4988 0.4988 0.4989 0.4989 0.4989 0.4990 0.4990
43