0% found this document useful (0 votes)
24 views

Probability Curve

Very good detailed explanations.

Uploaded by

Big.Dre
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
24 views

Probability Curve

Very good detailed explanations.

Uploaded by

Big.Dre
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 41

The Normal

Distribution

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 1


Objectives
At the end of this class, students should
be able:
■ To compute probabilities from the normal
distribution
■ How to use the normal distribution to
solve problems
■ To use the normal probability plot to
determine whether a set of data is
approximately normally distributed

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 2


Continuous Probability Distributions

■ A continuous variable is a variable that can


assume any value on a continuum (can assume
an uncountable number of values)
■ thickness of an item
■ time required to complete a task
■ temperature of a solution
■ height, in inches

■ These can potentially take on any value


depending only on the ability to precisely and
accurately measure
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 3
The Normal Distribution

■ Bell Shaped
■ Symmetrical f(X)
■ Mean, Median and Mode
are Equal
Location is determined by the σ
mean, μ X
Spread is determined by the μ
standard deviation, σ
Mean
The random variable has an = Median
infinite theoretical range: = Mode
+ ∞ to − ∞

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 4


The Normal Distribution
Density Function
■ The formula for the normal probability density function is

Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by


2.71828
π = the mathematical constant approximated by
3.14159
μ = the population mean
σ = the population standard deviation
X = any value of the continuous variable

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 5


By varying the parameters μ and σ, we
obtain different normal distributions
A
B
C

A and B have the same mean but different standard deviations.


B and C have different means and different standard deviations.
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 6
The Normal Distribution Shape

f(X) Changing μ shifts the


distribution left or right.

Changing σ increases
or decreases the
σ spread.

μ X

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 7


The Standardized Normal

■ Any normal distribution (with any mean and


standard deviation combination) can be
transformed into the standardized normal
distribution (Z)

■ To compute normal probabilities need to


transform X units into Z units

■ The standardized normal distribution (Z) has a


mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 8


Translation to the Standardized
Normal Distribution

■ Translate from X to the standard normal


deviate (the “Z” distribution) by subtracting the
mean of X and dividing by its standard
deviation:

The Z distribution always has mean = 0 and


standard deviation = 1
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 9
Practical 1

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 10


The Standardized Normal
Probability Density Function

■ The formula for the standardized normal


probability density function is

Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828


π = the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159
Z = any value of the standardized normal distribution

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 11


The Standardized
Normal Distribution

■ Also known as the “Z” distribution


■ Mean is 0
■ Standard Deviation is 1
f(Z)

1
Z
0
Values above the mean have positive Z-values.
Values below the mean have negative Z-values.

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 12


Example 1

■ If X is distributed normally with mean of $100


and standard deviation of $50, the Z value for
X = $200 is

■ This says that X = $200 is two standard


deviations (2 increments of $50 units) above
the mean of $100.

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 13


Example 2
■ Scores on VPH 527 test have an average of 80
with a standard deviation of 6. What is the
z-score for a student who earned a 75 on the
test? (2018 set)
■ Z = X - µ/ծ = 75 – 80/6 = 0.83

■ What does this mean?

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 14


Standardization helps to compare
data sets

■ 2019 Average score is 75 & SD 5. X = 72


■ 2020 Average score is 82 & SD 8. X = 85

■ Which of these students in the different years


perform best?

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 15


Comparing X and Z units

$100 $200 $X (μ = $100, σ = $50)


0 2.0 Z (μ = 0, σ = 1)
Note that the shape of the distribution is the same,
only the scale has changed. We can express the
problem in the original units (X in dollars) or in
standardized units (Z)

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 16


Dimensions
■ Standard score Comparism, Z
Score
■ Probability finding
■ Percentage of data sets
■ Proportion
■ Number size

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 17


Finding Normal Probabilities

Probability is measured by the area under


the curve
f(X) P (a ≤ X ≤ b)
= P (a < X < b)
(Note that the probability
of any individual value is
zero)

a b X

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 18


Probability as
Area Under the Curve
The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve is
symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is below

f(X)

0.5 0.5

μ X

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 19


.

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 20


The Standardized Normal Table

■ The Cumulative Standardized Normal table in


the textbook (Appendix table E.2) gives the
probability less than a desired value of Z (i.e.,
from negative infinity to Z)

0.9772
Example:
P(Z < 2.00) = 0.9772

0 2.00 Z

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 21


Normal Table

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 22


The Standardized Normal Table
(continued)

The column gives the value of


Z to the second decimal point
Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 …

0.0
The row shows
the value of Z 0.1
to the first . The value within the
.
decimal point . table gives the
2.0 .9772 probability from Z = − ∞
up to the desired Z
2.0
P(Z < 2.00) = 0.9772 value

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 23


Practical 2

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 24


General Procedure for Finding
Normal Probabilities

To find P(a < X < b) when X is


distributed normally:
■ Draw the normal curve for the problem in
terms of X

■ Translate X-values to Z-values

■ Use the Standardized Normal Table

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 25


Finding Normal Probabilities
■ Let X represent the time it takes (in seconds) to
download an image file from the internet.
■ Suppose X is normal with a mean of18.0
seconds and a standard deviation of 5.0
seconds. Find P(X < 18.6)

X
18.0
18.6
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 26
Finding Normal Probabilities
(continued)
■ Let X represent the time it takes, in seconds to download an image file from
the internet.
■ Suppose X is normal with a mean of 18.0 seconds and a standard deviation
of 5.0 seconds. Find P(X < 18.6)

μ = 18 μ=0
σ=5 σ=1

18 18.6 X 0 0.12 Z

P(X < 18.6) P(Z < 0.12)


Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 27
Solution: Finding P(Z < 0.12)

Standardized Normal Probability P(X < 18.6)


Table (Portion) = P(Z < 0.12)
Z .00 .01 .02 0.5478
0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080

0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478


0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871
Z
0.3 .6179 .6217 .6255 0.00
0.12

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 28


Finding Normal
Upper Tail Probabilities

■ Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0


and standard deviation 5.0.
■ Now Find P(X > 18.6)

X
18.0
18.6
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 29
Finding Normal
Upper Tail Probabilities
(continued)
■ Now Find P(X > 18.6)…
P(X > 18.6) = P(Z > 0.12) = 1.0 - P(Z ≤ 0.12)
= 1.0 - 0.5478 = 0.4522

0.5478
1.000 1.0 - 0.5478
= 0.4522

Z Z
0 0
0.12 0.12
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 30
Finding a Normal Probability
Between Two Values
■ Suppose X is normal with a mean of 18.0
and a standard deviation of 5.0. Find P(18 <
X < 18.6)
Calculate Z-values:

18 18.6 X
0 0.12 Z
P(18 < X < 18.6)
= P(0 < Z < 0.12)

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 31


Solution: Finding P(0 < Z < 0.12)

Standardized Normal Probability P(18 < X < 18.6)


Table (Portion) = P(0 < Z < 0.12)
= P(Z < 0.12) – P(Z ≤ 0)
Z .00 .01 .02 = 0.5478 - 0.5000 = 0.0478
0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080 0.0478
0.5000
0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478
0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871

0.3 .6179 .6217 .6255 Z


0.00
0.12
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 32
Probabilities in the Lower Tail

■ Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0


and standard deviation 5.0.
■ Now Find P(17.4 < X < 18)

X
18.0
17.4

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 33


Probabilities in the Lower Tail
(continued)

Now Find P(17.4 < X < 18)…


P(17.4 < X < 18)
= P(-0.12 < Z < 0)
0.0478
= P(Z < 0) – P(Z ≤ -0.12)
= 0.5000 - 0.4522 = 0.0478
0.4522

The Normal distribution is


symmetric, so this probability
17.4 18.0 X
is the same as P(0 < Z < 0.12) Z
-0.12 0

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 34


Empirical Rule
What can we say about the distribution of values
around the mean? For any normal distribution:

f(X)
μ ± 1σ encloses about
68.26% of X’s
σ σ

μ-1σ μ μ+1σ X
68.26%
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 35
The Empirical Rule
(continued)

■ μ ± 2σ covers about 95.44% of X’s


■ μ ± 3σ covers about 99.73% of X’s

2σ 2σ 3σ 3σ
μ x μ x
95.44% 99.73%

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 36


Given a Normal Probability
Find the X Value

■ Steps to find the X value for a known


probability:
1. Find the Z value for the known probability
2. Convert to X units using the formula:

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 37


Finding the X value for a Known
Probability (continued)

Example:
■ Let X represent the time it takes (in seconds) to
download an image file from the internet.
■ Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and standard
deviation 5.0
■ Find X such that 20% of download times are less than
X.
0.2000

? 18.0 X
? 0 Z

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 38


Find the Z value for
20% in the Lower Tail
1. Find the Z value for the known probability
Standardized Normal Probability ■ 20% area in the lower
Table (Portion) tail is consistent with a
Z value of -0.84
Z … .03 .04 .05
-0.9 … .1762 .1736 .1711
0.2000
-0.8 … .2033 .2005 .1977
-0.7 … .2327 .2296 .2266
? 18.0 X
-0.84 0 Z

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 39


Finding the X value

2. Convert to X units using the formula:

So 20% of the values from a distribution


with mean 18.0 and standard deviation
5.0 are less than 13.80

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 40


Lecture summary

In this chapter we discussed:


■ Computing probabilities from the normal distribution
■ Using the normal distribution to solve problems
■ Using the normal probability plot to determine whether a
set of data is approximately normally distributed

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 41

You might also like