STAT 111

CHAPTER 8 & 9

Introduction to
Hypothesis Testing
Using the Sign Test
LET’S START AT 8:15
 HYPOTHESIS
One of the problems we face when conducting
research is that when we select samples from
populations, we might not get a sample that
accurately reflects that population because we do
not know the pattern of scores in the underlying
population
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
● From our sample we have to decide what we think the population is
like.

● Effectively what we do is observe the pattern of scores in the sample

and decide which is the most plausible pattern in the population.

● What our statistical tests do is calculate a probability value, called

the p-value.

● This probability tells us the likelihood of us obtaining our pattern of

results due to sampling error if there is no relationship between
our variables in the population
NULL HYPOTHESIS

● H0
● Currently accepted value for a parameter
● States that there is no effect in the underlying
population.
By effect, it means:
● A relationship between two or more variables
● A difference between two or more different
populations
● A difference in the responses of one population
under two or more different conditions.

H1 and H0 are mathematical opposite

ALTERNATIVEHYPOTHESIS

● H1 or Ha
● Also called research hypothesis
● Involves the claim to be tested
● that claims the difference in results between
conditions is due to the independent variable
● Can be directional or nondirectional
● The research hypothesis is our prediction of how
two variables might be related to each other.
● H1 and H0 are mathematical opposite
 Logic of Null Hypothesis
Testing
Formulate a hypothesis

Measure the variables involved and examine the

relationship between them.

Calculate the probability of obtaining such a

relationship if there were no relationship in the
population (if the null hypothesis were true).
 Logic of Null Hypothesis
Testing

• If this calculated probability is small enough, it

suggests that the pattern of findings is unlikely to
have arisen by chance and so probably reflects a
genuine relationship in the population.
 Logic of Null Hypothesis
Testing

Hypothesis testing is not restricted to the

investigation of relationships between
variables. If we are interested in studying
differences between groups, we can also test
hypotheses.
THE SIGNIFICANCE
LEVEL

Most psychologists and indeed

most reputable psychology
journals use the convention that a
probability of 5% is small enough
to be a useful cut-off point.
This cut-off probability is often
called alpha (α).
THE SIGNIFICANCE
LEVEL

The probability associated with

each statistical test is often called
the p-value.

The p-value is the probability of

obtaining an observed effect,
given that the null hypothesis is
true.
p-value
The p-value approach to
hypothesis testing uses
the calculated
probability to determine
whether there is
evidence to reject the
null hypothesis.
THE SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL

• Alpha (α) is the criterion for statistical

significance that we set for our
analyses.

• It is the probability level that we use

as a cut-off below which we are
happy to assume that our pattern of
results is so unlikely as to render our
research hypothesis as more
plausible than the null hypothesis.
THE SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL

On the assumption of the null hypothesis being

true:
1.if the probability of obtaining an effect due to
sampling error is less than 5%, then the findings
are said to be ‘significant’
2.If this probability is greater than 5%, then the
findings are said to be ‘non-significant’
THE SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL

The conventional view today is that we

should report exact probability levels
for our test statistics (the exact p-value
or α) and shift away from thinking in
terms of whether or not the findings
are statistically significant.
P-VALUE

A p-value is a measure of the probability that an observed

difference could have occurred just by random chance. The
lower the p-value, the greater the statistical significance of
the observed difference. P-value can serve as an
alternative to or in addition to preselected confidence levels
for hypothesis testing
P-VALUE

A p-value is a measure of the probability that an observed

difference could have occurred just by random chance.
The lower the p-value, the greater the statistical significance
of the observed difference. P-value can serve as an
alternative to or in addition to preselected confidence levels
for hypothesis testing
P-VALUE
Decision Rule (α Level)

If the obtained probability ≤ α REJECT H0

If the obtained probability > α FAIL TO REJECT H0 , retain H0

 REPORTING SIGNIFICANCE TESTS

Productivity was Productivity was

significantly higher significantly higher when
when the workers the workers worked
worked under a bright under a bright light
light environment, environment,
p-value < 0.05 p-value = 0.023
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

Statistical significance is different from

psychological significance. Just because a
statistically significant difference is found between
two samples of scores, it does not mean that it is
necessarily a large or psychologically significant
difference.
STATISTICAL
SIGNIFICANCE
One of the main problems with the p-
value is that it is related to sample
size
If, therefore, a study has a large
number of participants, it could yield
a statistically significant finding with a
very small effect (relationship
between two variables or difference
between two groups)
“The lower the significance level, the stronger
the relationship between two variables.”
This is not what is meant by the
significance of a finding.
THE CORRECT
INTERPRETATION
OF P-VALUE

Alpha simply gives an indication of the

likelihood of finding such a relationship if
the null hypothesis were true
 “If I set α at the traditional 5% level and find a
significant relationship, I can assume that there is a
95% probability that the research hypothesis is
true”
This is incorrect!
THE CORRECT
INTERPRETATION
OF P-VALUE
In fact, we do not know what the probability is
that the research hypothesis is correct; our α
probability is conditional upon the null
hypothesis being true and has nothing to do
with the truth or falsity of the research
hypothesis.
ONE-TAILED
TEST

A one-tailed hypothesis is one

where you have specified the
direction of the relationship
between variables or the
difference between two
conditions.
TWO-TAILED
TEST

A two-tailed hypothesis is one

where you have predicted that
there will be a relationship
between variables or a
difference between conditions,
but you have not predicted the
direction of the relationship
between the variables or the
difference between the
conditions.
EXAMPLE 1: HYPOTHESIS TESTING

On average, an teacher earns 18,000 monthly in NCR. You would like to know whether
the monthly salary of 16,500 with an SD of 500 from the province with a sample of 50
teachers is significantly different from the average teacher in NCR.
 EXAMPLE 1: HYPOTHESIS TESTING

On average, an teacher earns 18,000 monthly in NCR. You would like to know whether
the monthly salary of 16,500 with an SD of 500 from the province with a sample of 50
teachers is significantly different from the average teacher in NCR.

STEP 1: STATE THE HYPOTHESIS

Write down your Null and Alternative Hypothesis

 EXAMPLE 1: HYPOTHESIS TESTING

On average, an teacher earns 18,000 monthly in NCR. You would like to know whether
the monthly salary of 16,500 with an SD of 500 from the province with a sample of 50
teachers is significantly different from the average teacher in NCR.

STEP 2: Set the criteria for decision

Identify the probability estimation and alpha level

 EXAMPLE 1: HYPOTHESIS TESTING

On average, an teacher earns 18,000 monthly in NCR. You would like to know whether
the monthly salary of 16,500 with an SD of 500 from the province with a sample of 50
teachers is significantly different from the average teacher in NCR.

STEP 3: Collect data and calculate

sample statistics
 EXAMPLE 1: HYPOTHESIS TESTING

On average, an teacher earns 18,000 monthly with an in NCR. You would like to know
whether the monthly salary of 16,500 with an SD of 500 from the province with a
sample of 50 teachers is significantly different from the average teacher in NCR.

STEP 4: Make a decision

Reject or retain null hypothesis?

LET’S PRACTICE: HYPOTHESIS TESTING

On average, milk stays fresh for 14 days without refrigeration. You believe that in
reality, this is less. So, you bought 40 bottles of milk and calculated the duration in
which they stay fresh. Your data is as follows: Mean = 13.6 days, SD = 0.7.
 LET’S PRACTICE: HYPOTHESIS TESTING

On average, milk stays fresh for 14 days without refrigeration. You believe that in
reality, this is less. So, you bought 40 bottles of milk and calculated the duration in
which they stay fresh. Your data is as follows: Mean = 13.6 days, SD = 0.7.

STEP 1: STATE THE HYPOTHESIS

Write down your Null and Alternative Hypothesis

 LET’S PRACTICE: HYPOTHESIS TESTING

On average, milk stays fresh for 14 days without refrigeration. You believe that in
reality, this is less. So, you bought 40 bottles of milk and calculated the duration in
which they stay fresh. Your data is as follows: Mean = 13.6 days, SD = 0.7.

STEP 2: Set the criteria for decision

Identify the probability estimation and alpha level

 LET’S PRACTICE: HYPOTHESIS TESTING

On average, milk stays fresh for 14 days without refrigeration. You believe that in
reality, this is less. So, you bought 40 bottles of milk and calculated the duration in
which they stay fresh. Your data is as follows: Mean = 13.6 days, SD = 0.7.

STEP 3: Collect data and calculate

sample statistics
 LET’S PRACTICE: HYPOTHESIS TESTING

On average, milk stays fresh for 14 days without refrigeration. You believe that in
reality, this is less. So, you bought 40 bottles of milk and calculated the duration in
which they stay fresh. Your data is as follows: Mean = 13.6 days, SD = 0.7.

STEP 4: Make a decision

Reject or retain null hypothesis?

 STAT 111

Laboratory Time

Let’s resume at 10:45

PROBABILITY OF ERRORS

Type I Error Type II Error

The decision to reject the null Defined as a decision to retain the null
hypothesis when the hypothesis when the null hypothesis is
false
Null hypothesis is true. That is, you
conclude that there is an effect in It represents the case when you do not
the population when no such effect reject the null hypothesis when in fact
really exists you should do because in the
underlying population the null
 TESTING HYPOTHESES

A Type I error, is the

rejection of the null
hypothesis when it is
actually true.

A Type II error, occurs

when we fail to reject the
null hypothesis when it is
actually false.
Pagano, R. R. (2020). Understanding Statistics in the
Behavioral Sciences (10th ed.). Cengage Learning.
 STAT 111

CHAPTER 10

Introduction to
Hypothesis Testing
Using the Sign Test