Assignment # 2
Assignment # 2
Q8 In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and P3, make 30%:, 45%, and 25%, of the
total production respectively. It is known from past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products
made by each machine, respectively, are defective. Now suppose that a finished product is randomly
selected. What is the probability that if is defective? Make a tree diagram to illustrate the situation.
Q9 In a certain region of the country it is known from the past experience that the probability of
selecting an adult over 40 years of age with cancer is 0.05, If the probability of a doctor correctly
diagnosing a person with cancer as having the disease is 0.78 and the probability of incorrectly
diagnosing a person without cancer as having the disease is 0.1.
(a) What is the probability that, a person is diagnosed as having cancer?
(b) What is the probability that, a person is diagnosed as having cancer, actually have the cancer?
Q10 A rare disease exists in which only 1 in 500 are affected. A test for the disease exists but of course
it is not infallible. A correct positive result (patient actually has the disease) occurs 95% of the time
while a false positive result (patient does not have the disease) occurs 1% of the time. If a randomly
selected individual is tested and the result is positive, what is the probability that the individual has the
disease?
Q11 A producer of a certain type of electronic component ships to suppliers in lots of twenty. Suppose
that 60% of all such lots contain no defective components, 30% contain one defective component, and
10% contain two defective components. A lot is selected and two components from the lot are
randomly selected and tested and neither is defective.
(a) What is the probability that zero defective components exist in the lot?
(b) What is the probability that one defective exists in the lot?
(c) What is the probability that two defectives exist in the lot?
Q12 In the field of quality control the science of statistics is often used to determine if a process is "out
of control." Suppose the process is, indeed, out of control and 20% of items produced are defective.
(a) If three items arrive off the process line in succession, what is the probability that all three are
defective?
(b) If four items arrive in succession, what is the probability that three are defective?
Q13 Pollution of the rivers in the United States has been a problem for many years. Consider the
following events: A= (The river is polluted) B= (A sample of water tested detects pollution.) C=
(Fishing permitted.). Assume P (A) = 0.3; P (B|A) = 0.75; P (B|A') = 0.20, P(C/AႶB) = 0.20, P (C|A'ႶB)
= 0.15, P (C|AႶB') = 0.80, and P (C|A' Ⴖ B') = 0.90.
(a) Find P (AႶBႶC).
(b) Find P (B'ႶC).
(c) Find P(C).
(d) Find the probability that the river is polluted, given that fishing is permitted and the sample tested
did not detect pollution.
Warning: These are just demo questions for practice. Thoroughly study
Chapter and its topics for preparation.