Case Study 4 Probability
Case Study 4 Probability
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320 CHAPTER 5 Probability
Sex of Victim by Race of Offender Based on this new information, you develop a new
offender profile by determining the likelihood that:
Race of Offender
Sex of Victim White Black Other Unknown 14. The offender is at least 18.
15. The offender is white.
Male 2162 2935 103 89
16. The offender is male.
Female 1126 700 59 24 17. The victim and the offender are from the same age
Unknown 30 27 4 26 category.
18. The victim and the offender are from different age
categories.
Race of Victim by Sex of Offender
19. The victim and the offender are of the same race.
Sex of Offender 20. The victim and the offender are of different races.
Race of Victim Male Female Unknown 21. The victim and the offender are of the same sex.
White 3322 330 57 22. The victim and the offender are of different sexes.
23. What is your best prediction of the age, race, and
Black 2964 290 49
sex of the offender? Explain your reasoning.
Other 159 20 7 24. Did your answers to the offender question change
Unknown 50 11 26 once you knew the age, race, and sex of the victim?
Source: Uniform Crime Reports: Crime in the United States Explain.
Suppose that 45% of murder victims were known to be
Murder Victims by Race and Sex related to or acquainted with the offender, that 15% were
murdered by an unrelated stranger, and that for 40% of
Sex
victims relationship to their killer is unknown. Based on all
Race Male Female Unknown the information available, complete your offender profile
White 5067 1883 6 for this case.
Black 6294 1126 1
Other 301 105 0
Unknown 131 42 34
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