Arrays and Tree diagrams

Setting out the outcomes of an event is an important part of working

with probability
Using arrays for two-step experiments
▪ Example of two-step experiments include:
• tossing two coins (or one coin twice),
• choosing two socks from a drawer,
• rolling two dice,
• choosing two cards from a pack,
• rolling a die and then tossing a coin.
▪ If A and B are independent events in successive stages of a two-stage experiment, then
P (AB) = P (A) × P (B), where the word ‘ independent ’ means that the outcome of one stage
does not affect the outcome of the other stage.
▪ Consider the ‘ throw of a die’, then ‘ the toss a coin’. What is the probability of obtaining
at least two on the die followed by a head ?’
An array 1 2 3 4 5 6 P (at least 2 and a head)
H H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 P ( 2 and H) = 5 = P ( 2)× P (H)
12
T T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6
= 5×1
6 2
Easy draw array 1 2 3 4 5 6
= 5
H 12

T
Replacement and non-replacement
Some experiments are conducted without replacement, which means some outcomes that may be
possible with replacement are not possible. For example: Two letters are chosen from the word CAT.

With replacement C A T Without replacement C A T

Outcomes C (C,C) (C,A) (C,T) Outcomes C X (C,A) (C,T)
=3×3 =3×2
=9 A (A,C) (A,A) (A,T) =6 A (A,C) X (A,T)
T (T,C) (T,A) (T,T) T (T,C) (T,A) X

The fundamental counting theorem states:

The total number of outcomes is equal to the product of the number of choices at each stage.
Examples
Two coins are tossed. (a) H T (d) P ( H, H ) = 1
(a) Draw a table to list the sample space. 4
(b) Find the probability of obtaining (H, T). H (H,H) (H,T) (e) P ( at least 1 head )
(c) Find the probability of a Head and a Tail.
(d) Find the probability of a double Head.
T (T,H) (T,T)
= 1 − P (T , T )
(e) Find P (at least 1 head). (b) P ( H, T ) = 1 = 1− 1
H T 4 4
2 × 2 = 4 outcomes H =3
(c) P ( a H and a T ) = 2
= 1
4
T 4 2
2. Two letters are chosen from the word TREE without replacement.
(a) List the outcomes in a table.
(b) Find the probability that the two letters chosen are both E.
(c) Find the probability that at least one of the letters is an E.

(a) 4 × 3 = 12 outcomes 1st (b) P ( E, E ) = 2

12
T R E E
=1
T R E E 6
T X (R,T) (E,T) (E,T)
T
R (T,R) X (E,R) (E,R)
(c) P ( at least one E )
R 2nd
E (T,E) (R,E) X (E,E)
E
E (T,E) (R,E) (E,E) X = 10
E 12
5
=
6
Using tree diagrams
▪ Tree diagrams are used to list the sample space for experiments with two or more steps.
▪ The outcomes for each stage of the experiment are listed vertically and each stage is
connected with branches.
▪ The consideration of with or without replacement must be considered when listing
possible outcomes.
Consider choosing 3 balls at random from a bag containing two red balls and one blue ball:
With replacement R
R
RRR
RRR
Without replacement
R B RRB
R RRR
B RRB
• P (RBR) = 4 R • P (RBR) = 2
R RRR
R
R B
R
RRB
RBR
27 R 6
B
R RBR
B R RBR
=1
B RBB
R RRR
R R RRR
3
B RRB
• P (RRR) = 8 R B RRB
R
R RRR
27 START
START R R R
B
R
RRR
RRB
RBR B R RBR • P (RRR) = 0
R RBR
B B RBB
R BRR R R BRR
R R
B
BRR
BRB B
B R
R
R
B
BRR
BRR
BRB
R R BRR
R BBR
B R BBR
B BBB | S | = 3 × 2 × 1 = 6 outcomes
| S | = 3 × 3 × 3 = 27 outcomes
▪ The counting of all possible outcomes (the size of the sample space) is important.
This is why we use tables and tree diagrams.
▪ Remember the Fundamental Counting Theorem:
“The total number of outcomes is equal to the product of the number of choices at each stage.”
Examples
1. Consider tossing two coins: 2. Two people are selected without replacement
(a) Find the total number of outcomes. from a group of three: Annabel (A), Brodie (B)
(b) Find: i. P (two tails) and Chris (C).
ii. P (one tail) (a) Construct a tree diagram.
iii. P (at least one head) (b) Find: i. P (A,B) ii. P (include C) iii. P (C or B)

(a) | S | = 2 × 2 = 4 (b) i. P ( T, T ) = 1 (a) | S | = 3 × 2 = 6 (b) i. P ( A, B ) = 1

B AB 6
4
H HH ii. P ( one tail ) = 2 = 1
A
ii. P ( include C ) = 4
4 2 C AC 6
H
iii. P ( at least one H )
2
T HT A BA =
3
= 1 − P ( T, T )
START
START B
H TH C BC iii. P ( C or B ) = 6
T = 1− 1 6
4 A CA
T TT = 3 C =1
4
B CB