Seismic Hazard Assessment

Part 2: Introduction to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)

Dr. Fawad A. Najam Prof. Dr. Pennung Warnitchai

Department of Structural Engineering Head, Department of Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
NUST Institute of Civil Engineering (NICE) School of Engineering and Technology (SET)
National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)
H-12 Islamabad, Pakistan Bangkok, Thailand
Cell: 92-334-5192533, Email: [email protected]
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA)

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 2

 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA)

• Probabilities are useful in characterizing seismic hazard since earthquakes and their effects are random
phenomena.

• Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA) takes into account the seismic potential of the seismic
sources, the random nature of earthquake occurrences, the random nature of the ground motion
produced by these earthquakes, the damage potential of these ground motions, and the uncertainties
involved at all levels of the process.

• Prior to the widespread use of PSHA for assessing earthquake hazards, Deterministic methods (DSHA)
dominated such assessments.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 3

 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

• The analytical approach of PSHA was first developed by C.A. Cornell in 1968.

• It was used by S.T. Algermissen et.al. (USGS) for developing a probabilistic seismic hazard
map of US in 1976.

• The map was later on used as a basis for developing the US seismic zone map in the Uniform
Building Code (US) in 1988.

• The analysis procedure is currently widely accepted and used all over the world.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 4

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 5
Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 6
 PGA (g) for 10% probability
of exceedance in 50 years

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 7

 PGA (g) for 2% probability of
exceedance in 50 years

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 8

 Global Seismic Hazard Map

G LOBAL S EISMICH AZARD A SSESSMENT P

ROGRAM

http://seismo.ethz.ch/gshap /
Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 9
 Key Assumptions in Calculating Probabilistic Ground Motions

1) Earthquakes occur within the defined seismic source zones or along the defined active faults.

2) Within each defined seismic source zone (or active fault), earthquakes occur randomly at any
location with an equal chance (probability).

3) Within each defined seismic source zone (or active fault), earthquakes randomly occur in time,
in which the average rate of occurrence is defined by its magnitude-recurrence relation. This
random occurrence in time is modeled as a Possion process.

4) The occurrence of an earthquake is statistically independent of the occurrence of other

earthquakes.

5) In any earthquake event, the ground motion parameter (e.g. PGA, SA) at the site of interest can
be estimated from the earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance, and other earthquake
parameters by using the selected attenuation relationship.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 10

 PSHA Procedure - Objective Study Area

Source B
Source C

Site

Probability of Exceedance
Source A

Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 11

 PSHA Procedure

 Selection of site(s)

 Identification of all critical tectonic features (e.g. active faults, seismic source zones) likely to
generate significant earthquakes—seismic sources

 Defining the seismicity of these seismic sources

 Selection of a suitable attenuation relationship—an equation that estimates ground-motion

parameters from earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance for various site conditions

 Computation of the ground motion parameters at the site.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 12

 Identification of all
potential seismic sources

 Defining the seismicity of

these seismic sources
Step 1: Sources Step 2: Recurrence

 Selection of appropriate
ground-motion prediction
equations (GMPEs)

 Determining of
Probabilities of
Exceedance (Hazard
Curve)
Step 3: Step 4:
Attenuation/GMPEs Hazard Curves
Step 1: Identification of all Seismic Sources
 Step 1: Sources
Identification of Seismic Sources

• Where active faults have been identified and mapped, they become the sources of future
earthquakes.

• Where specific faults have not been identified or their characteristics are not well understood, it is
common to define ‘seismic source zone’.

• Within the seismic source zone, earthquakes are typically modeled either as a single point of
energy release (a point source) or as a rupture on a fault (a finite-size source) with a random
location or orientation.

• In such cases, the challenge of the analyst is to identify source zones in which the seismicity is
relatively uniform.

• Even in areas where faults are well defined, a source zone may be needed to model the random
occurrence of small and moderate earthquakes (M < 6.5)—background seismicity.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 15

Step 1: Sources
 Step 1: Sources

Twelve Regional Seismic

Source Zones and Recorded
Earthquakes (1910-2000)

Earthquakes in Thailand-
Burma-Indochina Region
(1910-2000)

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 17

Step 1: Sources
 Step 1: Sources

Major tectonics in Pakistan

(courtesy: Geological Survey of
Pakistan).
Step 1: Sources
 Step 1: Sources

Historical Seismicity
of Pakistan (M5+)
Historical Seismicity
of Pakistan (M6+)
 Step 1: Sources

Historical Seismicity of
Pakistan (<30Km Deep)
 Step 1: Sources

Historical Seismicity of
Pakistan (>150Km Deep)
 Potential seismic sources in Continental Asia, more than twenty
seismic sources in Pakistan (boundary shown in red color)
(modified from GSHAP).

Source: Zaman S. (2016) Probabilistic Seismic

Hazard Assessment and Site-Amplification Mapping
for Pakistan
Nineteen seismic sources in Pakistan
and surrounding area (PMD-NORSAR
2007)

Source: PMD and NORSAR (2007) Seismic Hazard

Analysis and Zonation for Pakistan, Azad Jammu
and Kashmir
Seventeen seismic sources in Pakistan and
surrounding area (NESPAK 2007)

Source: Zaman S. (2016) Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and

Site-Amplification Mapping for Pakistan
Source: Bhatti et al., (2011) Probabilistic
seismic hazard analysis of Islamabad,
Pakistan
 Step 1: Sources
Area Sources of Pakistan

Shallow Area Sources (23) Deep Area Sources (5)

4823 Earthquake Events 1457 Earthquake Events

Source: Rahman et al. (2020)

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 29

Fault Sources of Pakistan

Earthquake sources of the study area:

a) Background seismicity zone (BG)

b) Crustal faults (1-13) SS: Strike-Slip

fault, R: Reverse fault), and

c) Makran subduction zone (MSZ)

Red Triangle shows major cities of Pakistan that is

Peshawar (Pes), Islamabad (Isl), Lahore (Lah),
Quetta (Que), Karachi (Kar), and Makran (Mak)

Source: Zaman S. (2016) Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Assessment and Site-Amplification Mapping for Pakistan
 Step 2: Quantifying the Seismicity Rate of Sources (The
Development of Magnitude-Recurrence Relationships for All
Sources)
 Step 2: Recurrence
Defining the Seismicity of Seismic Sources

• One commonly used parameter for defining the seismicity:

The rate of occurrence of earthquakes larger than some lower-bound magnitude mo = 𝝂

• mo is defined as the smallest earthquake expected to produce damage.

• Typically mo = 4.0

• In traditional applications of PSHA, 𝝂 is simply estimated from the historical rate of occurrence of
earthquakes exceeding mo

• The estimate requires historical and instrumental records of earthquakes

• Another relatively new technique—paleoseismic investigation—has been successful in

providing information on prehistoric fault movements and seismicity of active faults.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 32

 Step 2: Recurrence

www.structurespro.info/pegmd/
Instrumental earthquake data of Myanmar, Thailand and Indonesia Step 2: Recurrence
 Step 2: Recurrence

Investigation of Active Faults: Fault Trenching in Taiwan

Geological Record found in a Fault Trench in Taiwan Step 2: Recurrence
Fault Trenching in Kanchanaburi, Thailand Step 2: Recurrence
Earthquake Catalogue of Pakistan
Earthquake Catalogue of Pakistan

Blue 0 – 25 km Red 25 – 50 km Green 50 – 250 km

 Step 2: Recurrence
Magnitude-Recurrence

N(m) Mean annual number of earthquakes

Relationship
T = say 100 years
The probability of having an
m N(m) in Annual N(m) Cumulative earthquake with M = 6 in next
T years = N(m)/T Annual N(m) 1 year = 80%
8.0 1 0.01 0.01
The probability of having an
7.0 7 0.07 0.08
earthquake with M > 6 in next
6.0 80 0.8 0.88 1 year = 88%
= Probability of Exceedance
5.0 1000 10 10.88
4.0 6000 60 70.88

Annual N(m) = Annual Occurrence Rate

Cumulative Annual N(m) = Cumulative Annual Frequency
= Annual Frequency of Exceedance = Annual Rate of
Exceedance
m
e.g. the rate of occurrence of an earthquake with M > 6
in one year = 0.88
 Step 2: Recurrence
Magnitude-Recurrence Relationship

• The most commonly used equation (model) to describe the occurrence of earthquakes is the
well-known Gutenberg-Richter relationship:

Log10 N(m) = a - b.m

where

N(m) is the average number per year of earthquakes having magnitudes greater than m.
a and b are constants; they are conventionally obtained from an appropriate statistical analysis of
historical earthquakes.
10a is the average number per year of earthquakes above magnitude zero.
b describes the relative rate of occurrence of different magnitudes. b is typically 1.0 + 0.3.

• The form of this relationship has been verified from observations of seismicity
throughout the world.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 41

 Step 2: Recurrence

N(m) Mean annual number of earthquakes

m N(m)
8.0 2
7.0 20
6.0 100
5.0 3,000
4.0 15,000

The Gutenberg-Richter
(exponential) model
Log10 N(m) = a - b.m

m
Recurrence Models and Seismicity Parameters
The Seismicity Parameters (Recurrence Rates) are calculated by Gutenberg-Richter Law (1974)

𝐿𝑜𝑔 𝜆𝑀 = 𝑎 − 𝑏 ∗ 𝑀
 Magnitude-Recurrence Relationships
Twelve Regional Seismic Source Zones and 10

N(M) - Frequency of Occurrence (number/year)

Recorded Earthquakes (1910-2000)
zone A
zone B
zone C
1 zone D
zone E
zone F
zone G
zone H
zone I
0.1 zone J
zone K

0.01

0.001
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 M
Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 44
 Step 2: Recurrence
Fault Sources

• For some faults, the occurrence rate of large

earthquakes deviates from that predicted by
Gutenberg-Richter relationship.

• For these faults, a characteristic earthquake

model is thought to represent more accurately the
seismicity of the fault.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 45

Step 2: Recurrence
Step 3: The Selection of Attenuation Models (or Ground Motion
Prediction Equations, GMPEs)
 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
Attenuation Relationships

• The ground motion attenuation relationships provide the means of estimating a strong-
ground-motion parameter of interest from parameters of the earthquake, such as magnitude,
source-to-site distance, fault mechanism, local site conditions, etc.

• A wide variety of empirical ground motion attenuation relationships is available for

application in PSHA.

• The choice of an appropriate relationship is governed by the regional tectonic setting of site of
interest, whether it is located within a stable continental region, or an active tectonic region,
or whether the site is in proximity to a subduction zone tectonic environment.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 48

 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
Earthquake Magnitude = M

Ground Shaking Intensity

Ground Shaking
Intensity

miles

Distance from the Causative Fault

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 49
 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
Tectonic Regions
Active Tectonic Regions

Subduction Regions

Stable Continental Regions

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 50

 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 51

 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
Attenuation Relationships

Ground motion attenuation is often represented by the form:

Log10Y = c1 + c2.M + c3.Log10 R + c4.R + c5.F + c6.S + e

where
Y is the ground motion parameter of interest (i.e. PGA, PGV, SA, SD)
M is earthquake magnitude
R is source-to-site distance
F is the faulting mechanism of the earthquake
S is a description of the local site conditions
e is a random error term with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of s (a
Gaussian probability distribution); this term describes the variability in ground motion.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 52

Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
Random Error of Attenuation Model

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 54

 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
Source-to-Site Distance
 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
Faulting Mechanism
 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
Slip Terminology

Source: https://www.naturalfractures.com/

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 57

 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
Local Site Conditions

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 58

 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
Attenuation Relationships

Log10Y = c1 + c2.M + c3.Log10 R + c4.R + c5.F + c6.S + e

Coefficients c1, c2, c3, c4, c5, and c6 are normally determined by fitting the equation to
actual ground motion data (applying statistical regression analyses).

The term c3.Log10 R represents the geometric attenuation of the seismic wave front as
it propagates away from the earthquake source.

The term c4.R represents the anelastic attenuation that results from the material
damping and scattering as the seismic waves propagate through the crust.

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 59

 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
Ground motion database used for developing an attenuation relationship
 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
Coefficients of an attenuation relationship

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 61

 1 Step 3: Attenuation/GMPEs
Focal depth = 25 km
Attenuation PGA (g) M w = 7.2
Relationships
0.1

10
0.01

1
M w = 8.0
0.001

0.1

0.0001
WNA models
0.01
EU models
CENA models
0.001

0.0001
1 10 100 1000
Rupture Distance (km)
Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 62
Step 4: The Development of Hazard Curves for the Sites
 Identification of all
potential seismic sources

 Defining the seismicity of

these seismic sources
Step 1: Sources Step 2: Recurrence

 Selection of appropriate
ground-motion prediction
equations (GMPEs)

 Determining of
Probabilities of
Exceedance (Hazard
Curve)
Step 3: Step 4:
Attenuation/GMPEs Hazard Curves
 Recurrence
Attenuation/GMPEs

Cumulative Annual Frequency

Or Annual Rate of Exceedance Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)

𝑀′
Magnitude (M)
𝑀′

Source-to-Site Distance (R)

Annual Rate of Exceedance

or Probability of Exceedance
Hazard Curve
Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)
 Step 4: Hazard Curves
Hazard Curves

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 66

Thank you for your attention

Performance-based Seismic Design of Buildings – Semester: Spring 2020 (Fawad A. Najam) 67