AGS Transact Technologies - Jan 2021
AGS Transact Technologies - Jan 2021
Rating Rationale
January 08, 2021 | Mumbai
Detailed Rationale
CRISIL ratings on the bank facilities and non-convertible debenture (NCD) programme AGS Transact Technologies Limited
(AGS) continues to reflect AGS’s healthy business risk profile driven by its strong market position in the automated teller
machine (ATM) managed services industry, increasing presence in digital payment solutions and good visibility on revenues
owing to longstanding association with customer banks. These strengths are partially offset by an expected increase in
leverage, working capital intensive operations, risk of proliferation of digital payments over the long term and stagnancy in
demand for ATMs in the domestic market.
AGS’s operations were impacted in the first quarter of the current fiscal due to lockdown related disruptions, which in turn
affected footfalls and transactions in the ATMs managed by it. However, operations subsequently picked up and ATM
transactions have reached pre Covid 19 levels across many geographies. Hence, the company is expected to generate
healthy EBITDA (after factoring lease expenses) of over Rs 300 crore for fiscal 2021 on a consolidated basis (compared to
Rs 331 Cr in fiscal 2020) and over Rs 400 crore per annum onwards from next fiscal assuming normalisation of operations.
AGS’s operating profitability has also been expanding over the last 3 fiscals, from 15% in fiscal 2018 to 18% in fiscal 2020
with increased focus on the higher margin Independent Deployment (IAD) model of ATM management, increase in number
of transactions and renewal of contracts with customer banks at higher rates. Besides, the company also has a strong
vintage in its ATM portfolio, with ~50% of the installed ATMs having been operated for more than 3 years, in turn providing
stable transaction flow. This stability in revenues, coupled with improving profitability should support AGS’s healthy business
risk profile over the medium term.
However, the company’s financial risk profile is expected to moderate in the near term owing to proposed new NCD
issuance of Rs 550 crore to refinance the existing NCDs in the holding company (Vineha Enterprises Private Limited,
Vineha). Vineha had raised NCD’s of Rs 450 crore in fiscal 2019 to provide exit to two private equity investors who had
earlier held 42% stake in AGS (through Vineha). The NCD’s along with accrued interest is due for redemption in April, 2021.
With the proposed NCD issuance of Rs 550 crore in AGS, CRISIL expects AGS’s consolidated net debt to peak to about Rs
1,150 crore in the near term, also impacting its debt metrics. Consequently, debt/EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax,
depreciation and amortisation) ratio is expected to deteriorate to over 3 times by end of fiscal 2021, from 2 time levels in
fiscal 2020.
However, AGS’s management is also actively taking measures to deleverage the balance sheet either through IPO or other
modes of equity infusion. CRISIL expects the equity infusion to happen over the next 18-24 months and the proceeds to be
utilized to reduce the debt.
Ergo, debt/EBITDA should improve to less than 1.5 times post the equity infusion, while other debt protection metrics should
also benefit. Any delays in anticipated timelines for equity infusion could impact the overall credit profile of the company.
CRISIL will closely monitor the progress on the management’s deleveraging plans, and this will remain a key monitorable.
Nevertheless, liquidity is expected to remain adequate marked by expected cash accruals of at least Rs 200-250 crore
annually which will be sufficient to meet repayment obligations of Rs 120-150 crore per annum. Further, the flexibility to
raise long term debt against cash flows supports overall liquidity.
Analytical Approach
For arriving at the ratings, CRISIL has combined the financial and business risk profiles of AGS and its subsidiaries as they
have common management and are in similar lines of business. AGS has two main subsidiaries - Securevalue India Limited
(SVIL) engaged in the business of cash management services, India Transact Services Limited (ITSL) engaged in the
business of creating and dealing with electronic payment systems. CRISIL has also factored support from AGS to Vineha to
aid in the repayment of existing NCDs in Vineha.
AGS has also adopted IND-AS 116 for accounting of assets given under lease and for lease liabilities in fiscal 2019-20,
however, CRISIL has continued to recognize lease expenses as an operational expense and lease liabilities as operational
liabilities respectively.
Please refer Annexure - List of entities consolidated, which captures the list of entities considered and their analytical
treatment of consolidation.
Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
* Strong market position in the ATM managed services industry with presence across the value chain
AGS is one of the leading providers of automated solutions and technology products for banking, retail, paints and
petroleum sectors. The company commenced its banking automation business in 2004 which includes supply and
installation of ATMs, site development and provision of maintenance services. Capitalising on the expertise in the
automation space, AGS began to offer ATM outsourcing and managed services in 2009. The company further ventured into
transaction switching services and cash management services (through its subsidiary, SVIL) in 2011 and 2012, respectively.
This led to the company transforming into an end-to-end payment solutions and technology partner for the banking sector
across the entire ATM value chain, thereby consolidating its market position. As of September 2020, the company has a
network of over 31,000 ATMs under its ATM outsourcing and managed services business with a market share of ~15% and
services over 41,000 ATM’s under their cash management business in SVIL. Further, the company is also expanding its
presence in installing cash recycler machines (CRMs) for various banks which should further strengthen AGS’s overall
market position given the increasing preference by banks for CRMs to offer automatic deposit and withdrawal facilities to
customers. This will in-turn also expand the portfolio of machines serviced by SVIL under their cash management business.
Moreover, AGS also has strong technical capabilities supported by its strong in-house research and development division,
technology transfer arrangement with Diebold Nixdorf (for manufacturing of ATMs) and ACI Worldwide (for switching
solutions). Both Diebold Nixdorf and ACI Worldwide are global leaders in the respective segments, partnership with whom
provides access to state-of-the-art technology for AGS.
Besides, for customers, where the revenues to AGS are linked to the number of transactions done in the respective ATMs,
AGS reserves the right to relocate the ATMs in case of shortfall in number of transactions. Hence, with increasing vintage of
ATMs, AGS’s operating margins has been improving over the last 2 years and is expected to strengthen further over the
medium term.
Hence, with the issuance of fresh NCDs, overall net debt levels are expected to rise to around Rs 1,150 crore by March
2021 from Rs 573 crore as of March 2020 (Rs 559 crore as of March 31, 2019). Consequently, consolidated gearing is
expected to peak to around 2.3 times estimated for fiscal 2021, while debt to EBITDA is expected to cross 3 times.
However, the company is expected to redeem the NCD raised over the medium term through fresh equity infusion either by
way of IPO or other modes, including divestment of part stakes in some subsidiaries. Furthermore, capex requirements are
also expected to be moderate to around Rs 120-130 crore per annum. Hence, debt metrics should gradually improve over
the medium term, from the peak expected in fiscal 2021, also supported by progressive debt repayment, from the peak
expected in fiscal 2021. Hence, CRISIL believes AGS’s financial risk profile will remain adequate over the medium term.
Weanesses:
*Moderate working capital intensity in operations
AGS’s operations are moderately working capital intensive marked debtors of around 85-90 days on average over the last 5
years. This is partly due to the longer collection cycle of around in the automation business and milestone based billing in
the payments business. However, AGS’s counterparties in the payments business are strong.
Besides, the number of transactions done at ATMs and the overall transaction value is still on the rise, since cash
transactions continue to form the backbone of the economy. Further, with still a large proportion of India's population
remaining unbanked or under-banked; compared to some of the major economies in the world, and with banks focus on
improving financial inclusion, the number of transactions should continue its growing trajectory. Furthermore, cash
transactions still remain a core part of the overall transactions in the economy, especially in semi-urban and rural parts of
the country. Cash in circulation has also increased to an all-time high of ~Rs 27.70 lac crore in December, 2020 from pre
demonetization level of ~Rs 17.40 lac crore in September, 2016. Hence, the structural shift to digital payments will evolve
gradually over a longer time frame and is not expected to pose an immediate threat to the number of ATM based
transactions.
Liquidity: Adequate
Liquidity is adequate, marked by steady annual net cash accrual of over Rs 200-250 crore from the business, which would
be more than adequate to meet maturing debt obligations of around Rs. 120-150 crore per annum. The utilisation of the
fund based working capital limits is moderately high at around 81% (on standalone basis) over the last 12 months ended
September, 2020. However, the same is owing to lower drawing power availability, as the company has increasingly funded
its working capital requirements through long term loans raised by providing the contracted cash flows with customer banks
as security. Furthermore, AGS has sufficient cushion in its cash flows to raise additional moderate quantum of long term
funds to meet any exigencies.
Outlook Stable
CRISIL believes that AGS’s business risk profile will remain healthy driven by its established market position and improving
operating performance across divisions. Financial risk profile is expected to witness temporary moderation to support
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8/22/2021 Rating Rationale
repayment of debt at the parent level, but will gradually improve with better cash accruals, progressive repayment of debt
obligations and expected equity infusion over the medium term
Rating Sensitivity Factors
Upward Factors:
• Significant improvement in cash generation, most likely due to steady revenue growth of over 12-14% and
improvement in operating profitability to over 25%.
• Prudent capital expenditure and efficient working capital management leading to improvement in capital structure -
debt/EBITDA to below 1.5 times on a sustained basis.
Downward Factors:
• Decline in revenues and moderation in operating profitability to less than 12% on a sustained basis.
• Delays in equity infusion, or higher than expected capex or decline in cash generation resulting in debt/EBITDA
increasing and sustaining at over 3.5 times over the medium term.
• Increasing working capital/ reducing drawing power leading to almost complete utilisation of working capital bank lines,
and weakening of liquidity profile
About the Company
AGS is one of India’s leading providers of end-to-end cash and digital payment solutions including customized solutions
serving the banking, retail, petroleum and transit sectors. AGS’s operations cover approximately 2,200 cities and towns,
servicing approx. 2,90,000 machines or customer touch points across India, as of March 31, 2020. AGS has two main
subsidiaries - Securevalue India Limited (SVIL) engaged in the business of cash management services, India Transact
Services Limited (ITSL) engaged in the business of creating and dealing with electronic payment systems. In addition to
SVIL and ITSL, AGS has also started expanding its operations to Southeast Asian and other countries by forming overseas
step-down subsidiaries in Sri Lanka, Philippines and Cambodia through subsidiary in Singapore.
Key Financial Indicators
As on / for the period ended March 31 Unit 2020 2019
Operating Income Rs.Cr. 1820 1821
Adjusted Profit After Tax Rs.Cr. 83 76
Adjusted PAT margins % 4.6 4.2
Adjusted Debt/ Adjusted Net worth Times 1.53 1.41
Interest coverage Times 4.34 3.70
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