Year Quarter Demand Dt

1998 II 8000
1998 III 13000
1998 IV 23000
1999 I 34000
1999 II 10000
1999 III 18000
1999 IV 23000
2000 I 38000
2000 II 12000
2000 III 13000
2000 IV 32000
2001 I 41000

MSE
Dt Lt Ft Et Squared Mean Absolute
error Squared Deviation
Error

0
1 8000
2 13000
3 23000
4 34000
5 10000 19500
1 6 18000 20000 19500 1500 2250000 2250000 1500
2 7 23000 21250 20000 -3000 9000000 5625000 3000
3 8 38000 21250 21250 -16750 2.81E+08 97270833 16750
4 9 12000 22250 21250 9250 85562500 94343750 9250
5 10 13000 22750 22250 9250 85562500 92587500 9250
6 11 32000 21500 22750 -9250 85562500 91416667 9250
7 12 41000 23750 21500 -19500 3.8E+08 1.33E+08 19500
 MAPE
MAD Mean
Mean Absolute Absolute TS
Absolute Percent Percent Tracking Lower Upper
Deviation Error Error Signal Limit Limit

Chart Title
3

1
1500 8.33% 0.083333 1 -2 2
0
2250 13.04% 0.106884 -0.666667 -2 2 1 2 3 4 5
7083.333 44.08% 0.218186 -2.576471 -2 2 -1

7625 77.08% 0.356348 -1.180328 -2 2 -2

Column M Column N
 Chart Title

3 4 5 6 7

Column M Column N Column O

Dt Lt Ft Et
0 22083.33
1 8000 20675 22083.33
2 13000 19907.5 20675
3 23000 20216.75 19907.5
4 34000 21595.08 20216.75
5 10000 20435.57 21595.08
6 18000 20192.01 20435.57
7 23000 20472.81 20192.01
8 38000 22225.53 20472.81
9 12000 21202.98 22225.53
10 13000 20382.68 21202.98
11 32000 21544.41 20382.68
12 41000 23489.97 21544.41
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.481327
R Square 0.231676
Adjusted R 0.154843
Standard E 10666.88
Observatio 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 3.43E+08 3.43E+08 3.01534 0.113127
Residual 10 1.14E+09 1.14E+08
Total 11 1.48E+09

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 12015.15 6565.013 1.830179 0.097147 -2612.609 26642.91 -2612.609 26642.91
X Variable 1548.951 892.0096 1.736474 0.113127 -438.5702 3536.472 -438.5702 3536.472
 Alpha 0.1
Beta 0.2
Dt Lt Tt Ft Et Abs Dev MAD TS Lower
Limit
0 12015.15 1548.951
1 8000 13007.69 1437.67 13564.10 5564.10 5564.103 5564.103 1 -2
2 13000 14300.83 1408.76 14445.36 1445.36 1445.361 3504.732 2 -2
3 23000 16438.63 1554.57 15709.59 -7290.41 7290.413 4766.626 -0.058941 -2
4 34000 19593.88 1874.71 17993.20 -16006.80 16006.8 7576.67 -2.149724 -2
5 10000 20321.73 1645.33 21468.58 11468.58 11468.58 8355.053 -0.576797 -2
6 18000 21570.35 1565.99 21967.06 3967.06 3967.06 7623.721 -0.11177 -2
7 23000 23122.71 1563.27 23136.35 136.35 136.3476 6554.096 -0.109208 -2
8 38000 26017.38 1829.55 24685.98 -13314.02 13314.02 7399.087 -1.89615 -2
9 12000 26262.23 1512.61 27846.93 15846.93 15846.93 8337.736 0.217943 -2
10 13000 26297.36 1217.11 27774.84 14774.84 14774.84 8981.446 1.847363 -2
11 32000 27963.02 1306.82 27514.47 -4485.53 4485.53 8572.727 1.412207 -2
12 41000 30442.86 1541.42 29269.84 -11730.16 11730.16 8835.846 0.042589 -2
Upper
Limit

Chart Title
2
2 2.5
2
2
1.5
2
1
2
0.5
2
0
2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
-0.5
2
-1
2 -1.5
2 -2
2 -2.5
2
TS Lower Limit Upper Limit
12 13