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Chapter 7. INTEREST RATES AND BOND VALUATION

This chapter discusses bond valuation and the factors that impact bond prices. It covers key bond features such as coupon rates, bond ratings, and bond types. The chapter explains how interest rates and inflation affect bond values, with higher rates causing bond prices to fall. Bond yields are determined by factors like risk, maturity, call provisions, and credit quality. The chapter contrasts bonds with equity and outlines the differences in their features.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
193 views45 pages

Chapter 7. INTEREST RATES AND BOND VALUATION

This chapter discusses bond valuation and the factors that impact bond prices. It covers key bond features such as coupon rates, bond ratings, and bond types. The chapter explains how interest rates and inflation affect bond values, with higher rates causing bond prices to fall. Bond yields are determined by factors like risk, maturity, call provisions, and credit quality. The chapter contrasts bonds with equity and outlines the differences in their features.

Uploaded by

Chloe Jtr
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CHAPTER 7

INTEREST RATES AND BOND


VALUATION
Key Concepts and Skills

◼ Know the important bond features and bond


types

◼ Understand bond values and why they fluctuate

◼ Understand bond ratings and what they mean

◼ Understand the impact of inflation on interest


rates

◼ Understand the term structure of interest rates


and the determinants of bond yields
Chapter Outline

◼ Bonds and Bond Valuation


◼ More about Bond Features
◼ Bond Ratings
◼ Some Different Types of Bonds
◼ Bond Markets
◼ Inflation and Interest Rates
◼ Determinants of Bond Yields
Bond Definitions

◼ Bond
◼ Par value (face value)
◼ Coupon rate
◼ Coupon payment
◼ Maturity date
◼ Yield or Yield to maturity
Present Value of Cash Flows
as Rates Change
◼ Bond Value = PV of coupons + PV of par
◼ Bond Value = PV of annuity + PV of lump
sum

◼ As interest rates increase, present values


decrease

◼ So, as interest rates increase, bond prices


decrease and vice versa
Valuing a Discount Bond with Annual
Coupons

◼ Consider a bond with a coupon rate of


10% and annual coupons. The par value is
$1,000, and the bond has 5 years to
maturity. The yield to maturity is 11%.
What is the value of the bond?
▪ Using the formula:
◼ B = PV of annuity + PV of lump sum
◼ B = 100[1 – 1/(1.11)5] / .11 + 1,000 / (1.11)5
◼ B = 369.59 + 593.45 = 963.04

▪ Using the calculator:


◼ N = 5; I/Y = 11; PMT = 100; FV = 1,000
◼ CPT PV = -963.04
Valuing a Premium Bond with Annual
Coupons

◼ Suppose you are reviewing a bond that has a 10%


annual coupon and a face value of $1000. There
are 20 years to maturity, and the yield to maturity
is 8%. What is the price of this bond?
▪ Using the formula:
◼ B = PV of annuity + PV of lump sum
◼ B = 100[1 – 1/(1.08)20] / .08 + 1000 / (1.08)20
◼ B = 981.81 + 214.55 = 1196.36

▪ Using the calculator:


◼ N = 20; I/Y = 8; PMT = 100; FV = 1000
◼ CPT PV = -1,196.36
Graphical Relationship Between Price and
Yield-to-maturity (YTM)
1500
Bond Price, in dollars

1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Yield-to-Maturity Yield-to-maturity
(YTM) (YTM)

Bond characteristics:
10 year maturity, 8% coupon rate, $1,000 par value
Bond Prices: Relationship Between
Coupon and Yield

◼ If YTM = coupon rate, then par value = bond


price
◼ If YTM > coupon rate, then par value > bond
price
▪ Why? The discount provides yield above coupon rate
▪ Price below par value, called a discount bond
◼ If YTM < coupon rate, then par value < bond
price
▪ Why? Higher coupon rate causes value above par
▪ Price above par value, called a premium bond
The Bond Pricing Equation

 1 
1 -
 (1 + r) t  FV
Bond Value = C  +
 (1 + r)
t
 r
 
Example 7.1

• If an ordinary bond has a coupon rate of


14 percent, then the owner will get a total
of $140 per year, but this $140 will come in
two payments of $70 each. The yield to
maturity is quoted at 16 percent. The bond
matures in seven years.

• Note: Bond yields are quoted like APRs;


the quoted rate is equal to the actual rate
per period multiplied by the number of
periods.
Example 7.1

▪ How many coupon payments are there?

▪ What is the semiannual coupon payment?

▪ What is the semiannual yield?

▪ What is the bond price?

▪ B = 70[1 – 1/(1.08)14] / .08 + 1,000 / (1.08)14


= 917.56

▪ Or PMT = 70; N = 14; I/Y = 8; FV = 1,000;


CPT PV = -917.56
Interest Rate Risk
◼ Price Risk
▪ Change in price due to changes in interest rates
▪ Long-term bonds have more price risk than short-term
bonds
▪ Low coupon rate bonds have more price risk than high
coupon rate bonds

◼ Reinvestment Rate Risk


▪ Uncertainty concerning rates at which cash flows can
be reinvested
▪ Short-term bonds have more reinvestment rate risk
than long-term bonds
▪ High coupon rate bonds have more reinvestment rate
risk than low coupon rate bonds
Figure 7.2
Computing Yield to Maturity

◼ Yield to Maturity (YTM) is the rate implied by the


current bond price

◼ Finding the YTM requires trial and error if you do


not have a financial calculator and is similar to
the process for finding r with an annuity

◼ If you have a financial calculator, enter N, PV,


PMT, and FV, remembering the sign convention
(PMT and FV need to have the same sign, PV
the opposite sign)
YTM with Annual Coupons

◼ Consider a bond with a 10% annual coupon


rate, 15 years to maturity and a par value of
$1,000. The current price is $928.09.

▪ Will the yield be more or less than 10%?

▪ N = 15; PV = -928.09; FV = 1,000; PMT = 100; CPT


I/Y = 11%
YTM with Semiannual Coupons
◼ Suppose a bond with a 10% coupon rate and
semiannual coupons, has a face value of $1,000,
20 years to maturity and is selling for $1,197.93.
▪ Is the YTM more or less than 10%?
▪ What is the semiannual coupon payment?
▪ How many periods are there?
▪ N = 40; PV = -1,197.93; PMT = 50; FV = 1,000; CPT
I/Y = 4% (Is this the YTM?)
▪ YTM = 4%* 2 = 8%
Table 7.1
Current Yield vs. Yield to Maturity

◼ Current Yield = annual coupon / price


◼ Yield to maturity = current yield + capital gains yield
◼ Example: 10% coupon bond, with semiannual coupons,
face value of 1,000, 20 years to maturity, $1,197.93
price
▪ Current yield = 100 / 1,197.93 = .0835 = 8.35%

▪ Price in one year, assuming no change in YTM = 1,193.68

▪ Capital gain yield = (1,193.68 – 1,197.93) / 1,197.93 = -.0035


= -.35%

▪ YTM = 8.35 - .35 = 8%, which is the same YTM computed


earlier
Bond Pricing Theorems

◼ Bonds of similar risk (and maturity) will be priced to yield


about the same return, regardless of the coupon rate

◼ If you know the price of one bond, you can estimate its
YTM and use that to find the price of the second bond

◼ This is a useful concept that can be transferred to


valuing assets other than bonds
Differences Between
Debt and Equity
◼ Debt ◼ Equity
▪ Not an ownership interest ▪ Ownership interest
▪ Creditors do not have ▪ Common stockholders vote
voting rights for the board of directors
▪ Interest is considered a and other issues
cost of doing business and ▪ Dividends are not
is tax deductible considered a cost of doing
▪ Creditors have legal business and are not tax
recourse if interest or deductible
principal payments are ▪ Dividends are not a
missed liability of the firm, and
▪ Excess debt can lead to stockholders have no legal
financial distress and recourse if dividends are
bankruptcy not paid
▪ An all equity firm can not
go bankrupt merely due to
debt since it has no debt
The Bond Indenture

◼ Contract between the company and


the bondholders that includes
▪ The basic terms of the bonds
▪ The total amount of bonds issued
▪ A description of property used as
security, if applicable
▪ Sinking fund provisions
▪ Call provisions
▪ Details of protective covenants
Bond Classifications

◼ Registered vs. Bearer Forms

◼ Security
▪ Collateral – secured by financial securities
▪ Mortgage – secured by real property, normally land or
buildings
▪ Debentures – unsecured
▪ Notes – unsecured debt with original maturity less
than 10 years

◼ Seniority
Bond Characteristics and Required
Returns

◼ The coupon rate depends on the risk


characteristics of the bond when issued
◼ Which bonds will have the higher coupon,
all else equal?
▪ Secured debt versus a debenture
▪ Subordinated debenture versus senior debt
▪ A bond with a sinking fund versus one without
▪ A callable bond versus a non-callable bond
Bond Ratings –
Investment Quality

◼ High Grade
▪ Moody’s Aaa and S&P AAA – capacity to pay is extremely
strong
▪ Moody’s Aa and S&P AA – capacity to pay is very strong

◼ Medium Grade
▪ Moody’s A and S&P A – capacity to pay is strong, but
more susceptible to changes in circumstances
▪ Moody’s Baa and S&P BBB – capacity to pay is adequate,
adverse conditions will have more impact on the firm’s
ability to pay
Bond Ratings –
Speculative Grade

◼ Low Grade
▪ Moody’s Ba and B
▪ S&P BB and B
▪ Considered possible that the capacity to pay will
degenerate.

◼ Very Low Grade


▪ Moody’s C (and below) and S&P C (and below)
◼ income bonds with no interest being paid, or
◼ in default with principal and interest in arrears
Government Bonds
◼ Treasury Securities
▪ Federal government debt
▪ T-bills – pure discount bonds with original maturity of
one year or less
▪ T-notes – coupon debt with original maturity between
one and ten years
▪ T-bonds – coupon debt with original maturity greater
than ten years

◼ Municipal Securities
▪ Debt of state and local governments
▪ Varying degrees of default risk, rated similar to
corporate debt
▪ Interest received is tax-exempt at the federal level
Example 7.4

◼ A taxable bond has a yield of 8%, and a


municipal bond has a yield of 6%.

▪ If you are in a 40% tax bracket, which bond do you


prefer?
◼ 8%(1 - .4) = 4.8%
◼ The after-tax return on the corporate bond is 4.8%,
compared to a 6% return on the municipal

▪ At what tax rate would you be indifferent between the


two bonds?
◼ 8%(1 – T) = 6%
◼ T = 25%
Zero Coupon Bonds

◼ Make no periodic interest payments (coupon rate = 0%)

◼ The entire yield-to-maturity comes from the difference


between the purchase price and the par value

◼ Cannot sell for more than par value

◼ Sometimes called zeroes, deep discount bonds, or


original issue discount bonds (OIDs)

◼ Treasury Bills and principal-only Treasury strips are good


examples of zeroes
Floating-Rate Bonds

◼ Coupon rate floats depending on some index value

◼ Examples – adjustable rate mortgages and inflation-


linked Treasuries

◼ There is less price risk with floating rate bonds


▪ The coupon floats, so it is less likely to differ substantially from the
yield-to-maturity

◼ Coupons may have a “collar” – the rate cannot go above


a specified “ceiling” or below a specified “floor”
Other Bond Types
◼ Disaster bonds
◼ Income bonds
◼ Convertible bonds
◼ Put bonds
◼ There are many other types of provisions
that can be added to a bond and many
bonds have several provisions – it is
important to recognize how these
provisions affect required returns
Sukuk

◼ Sukuk are bonds have been created to


meet a demand for assets that comply
with Shariah, or Islamic law

◼ Shariah does not permit the charging or


paying of interest

◼ Sukuk are typically bought and held to


maturity, and are extremely illiquid
Bond Markets
◼ Primarily over-the-counter transactions
with dealers connected electronically

◼ Extremely large number of bond issues,


but generally low daily volume in single
issues

◼ Makes getting up-to-date prices difficult,


particularly on small company or municipal
issues

◼ Treasury securities are an exception


Treasury Quotations

◼ Highlighted quote in Figure 7.4


Maturity Coupon Bid Asked Chg Asked yield
5/15/2030 6.250 136.8359 136.9141 -0.7813 3.289

▪ What is the coupon rate on the bond?


▪ When does the bond mature?
▪ What is the bid price? What does this mean?
▪ What is the ask price? What does this mean?
▪ How much did the price change from the previous day?

▪ What is the yield based on the ask price?


Clean vs. Dirty Prices

◼ Clean price: quoted price

◼ Dirty price: price actually paid = quoted price plus accrued


interest

◼ Example: Consider a T-bond with a 4% semiannual yield


and a clean price of $1,282.50:
▪ Number of days since last coupon = 61
▪ Number of days in the coupon period = 184
▪ Accrued interest = (61/184)(.04*1000) = $13.26
▪ Dirty price = $1,282.50 + $13.26 = $1,295.76

◼ So, you would actually pay $ 1,295.76 for the bond


Inflation and Interest Rates

◼ Real rate of interest – change in


purchasing power

◼ Nominal rate of interest – quoted rate of


interest, change in actual number of
dollars

◼ The ex ante nominal rate of interest


includes our desired real rate of return
plus an adjustment for expected inflation
The Fisher Effect

◼ The Fisher Effect defines the relationship


between real rates, nominal rates, and inflation

◼ (1 + R) = (1 + r)(1 + h), where


▪ R = nominal rate
▪ r = real rate
▪ h = expected inflation rate

◼ Approximation
▪ R=r+h
Example 7.5

◼ If we require a 10% real return and we expect


inflation to be 8%, what is the nominal rate?

◼ R = (1.1)(1.08) – 1 = .188 = 18.8%

◼ Approximation: R = 10% + 8% = 18%

◼ Because the real return and expected inflation are


relatively high, there is significant difference
between the actual Fisher Effect and the
approximation.
Term Structure of
Interest Rates

◼ Term structure is the relationship between time to


maturity and yields, all else equal

◼ It is important to recognize that we pull out the


effect of default risk, different coupons, etc.

◼ Yield curve – graphical representation of the term


structure
▪ Normal – upward-sloping; long-term yields are higher
than short-term yields
▪ Inverted – downward-sloping; long-term yields are
lower than short-term yields
Figure 7.6 – Upward-Sloping Yield Curve
Figure 7.6 – Downward-Sloping
Yield Curve
Figure 7.7
Factors Affecting
Bond Yields

◼ Real rate of interest

◼ Expected future inflation premium

◼ Interest rate risk premium

◼ Default risk premium

◼ Taxability premium

◼ Liquidity premium
Comprehensive Problem
◼ What is the price of a $1,000 par value bond
with a 6% coupon rate paid semiannually, if
the bond is priced to yield 5% and it has 9
years to maturity?

◼ What would be the price of the bond if the


yield rose to 7%.

◼ What is the current yield on the bond if the


YTM is 7%?
Chapter 7
End of Chapter

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