GLOBAL WARMING

BY :
DIAN AYU LIZTIAH
NPM ; 22.14201.90.27

SEKOLAH TINGGI ILMU KESEHATAN BINA HUSADA

PALEMBANG
 GLOBAL WARMING

The global average temperature at the Earth's surface has increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33
± 0.32 °F) over the last hundred years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concludes that most of the increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is
most likely due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases due to human activities through
the greenhouse effect. This basic conclusion has been made by at least 30 scientific and
academic bodies, including all the national academies of science of the G8 countries. However,
some scientists still disagree with some of the conclusions of the IPCC. Climate models used by
the IPCC project indicate that global surface temperatures will rise 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F)
between 1990 and 2100. The difference in estimates is due to the use of different scenarios for
future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as different climate sensitivity models. Although most
research focuses on the period up to 2100, warming and sea-level rise are expected to continue
for more than a thousand years even though greenhouse gas emissions have stabilized. This
reflects the enormous heat capacity of the oceans. Rising global temperatures are expected to
cause other changes such as rising sea levels, an increase in the intensity of extreme weather
events, and changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation. Other effects of global warming
include the loss of crops, the loss of glaciers, and the extinction of species. Some of the things
that scientists still doubt are the amount of warming that is expected to occur in the future, and
how the warming and changes that will occur will vary from one region to another. To this day
there is still a political and public debate in the world about what, if anything, action should be
taken to reduce or reverse further warming or to adapt to the consequences that exist. Most
governments of the world have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which leads to reductions
in greenhouse gas emissions.
Global warming is the long-term increase in the average temperature of the Earth's
climate system, an aspect of climate change indicated by temperature measurements and by some
effects of warming. The term usually refers to the observed warming caused primarily by
humans since pre-industrial times and the projected continuation, although there were also
periods of much earlier global warming. In modern contexts, the terms global warming and
climate change are generally used interchangeably, but climate change encompasses both. Global
warming and its effects, such as changes in rainfall and impacts vary by region. Many of the
warming changes observed since the 1950s are unprecedented in instrumental temperature
records, and in historical and paleoclimate proxy records of climate change over thousands to
millions of years. In 2013, an assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) concluded, "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant
cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century". The greatest human impact is
emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Given the
dominant role of human activity in causing it, this phenomenon is sometimes called
anthropogenic global warming or anthropogenic climate change. The climate projection models
summarized in the report suggest that during the 21st century, global surface temperatures are
likely to rise from 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) to 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) depending on the
level of greenhouse gas emissions. These findings have been recognized by the national
academies of science of major industrialized countries and are not disputed by any scientific
body of national or international standing. Future climate change and its associated impacts will
vary from region to region. Ongoing and anticipated effects include rising sea levels, changes in
precipitation, and the expansion of deserts in the subtropics. Future warming is expected to be
greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic, with glaciers, permafrost, and
sea ice continually retreating. Other possible changes include more frequent extreme weather
events such as heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, heavy rainfall with flooding, and heavy snowfall;
ocean acidification; and mass extinction of species due to changes in temperature regimes.
Significant effects for humans include threats to food security from declining crop yields and the
abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels. Because the climate system has great
inertia and greenhouse gases will remain in the atmosphere for a long time, many of these effects
will last not just for decades or centuries, but tens of thousands of years. Possible social
responses to global warming include mitigation by emission reductions, adaptation to its impacts,
building systems that are resilient to its impacts, and possible future climate engineering. Most
countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), whose main objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change. The
UNFCCC parties have agreed that deep emission reductions are needed and that global warming
should be limited to below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) compared to pre-industrial levels, with efforts being
made to limit warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). Some scientists question the feasibility of climate
adaptation, with higher emissions scenarios, or a two-degree temperature target. Public reaction
to global warming and concerns about its effects are also increasing. A 2015 Pew Global
Research Center report showed that a median of 54% of all respondents asked considered it a
very serious problem. There are significant regional differences, with Americans and Chinese
(whose economies are responsible for the largest annual emissions of CO2) among the least
concerned.

A. The Causes of Global Warming

1. Greenhouse Effect
All the energy on Earth comes from the sun. Most of this energy is in the form of
short-wave radiation, including visible light. When this energy reaches the Earth's
surface, it turns from light into heat that warms the Earth. The Earth's surface would
absorb some of the heat and reflect the rest. Some of this heat is in the form of long-wave
infrared radiation into outer space. But some of the heat remains trapped in the Earth's
atmosphere due to the buildup of greenhouse gases such as water vapor, carbon dioxide,
sulfur dioxide and methane that trap these waves of radiation. These gases absorb and
reflect back radiation waves emitted by the Earth and as a result, the heat is stored on the
Earth's surface. This is a continuous process that results in a constant rise in the earth's
annual average temperature. They function like greenhouse gases. As the concentration
of these gases in the atmosphere increases, more heat is trapped underneath. This
greenhouse effect is very much needed by all life on Earth, because without it, the planet
would be very cold. With an average temperature of 15 °C (59 °F), the earth has actually
been 33 °C (59 °F) hotter than its original temperature, if not for the greenhouse effect
the earth's temperature is only -18 °C so ice would cover the entire Earth's surface. On the
other hand, if these gases have become excessive in the atmosphere, they will cause
global warming.

2. Feedback Effect
 The causes of global warming are also influenced by the various feedback
processes they produce. An example is water evaporation. In the case of warming due to
increased greenhouse gases such as CO2, the warming will initially cause more water to
evaporate into the atmosphere. Since water vapor itself is a greenhouse gas, heating will
continue and increase the amount of water vapor in the air until an equilibrium of water
vapor concentration is reached. The greenhouse effect is greater than the CO2 alone.
(Although this feedback increases the absolute water content of the air, the relative
humidity of the air is almost constant or even decreases somewhat as the air becomes
warmer.) This feedback only has a slow impact because CO2 has a long life in the
atmosphere. Feedback effects due to cloud influence are the subject of current research.
When viewed from below, the clouds reflect infrared radiation back to the surface, thus
increasing the warming effect. On the other hand, when viewed from above, the clouds
reflect sunlight and infrared radiation into space, thus increasing the cooling effect.
Whether the net effect produces heating or cooling depends on certain details such as the
type and height of the cloud. These details are difficult to represent in climate models, in
part because clouds are very small when compared to the distance between computational
boundaries in climate models (about 125 to 500 km for models used in the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report). Nevertheless, cloud feedback ranks second when compared to water
vapor feedback and is considered positive (adding warming) in all models used in the
fourth IPCC Outlook Report. Another important feedback is the loss of light reflection
(albedo) by ice. As global temperatures rise, the ice near the poles is melting at an
increasing rate. As the ice melts, the land or water underneath will open up. Both land
and water have the ability to reflect less light than ice, and as a result, absorb more of the
sun's radiation. This will increase the warming and cause more ice to melt, a continuous
cycle. Positive feedback from the release of CO2 and CH4 from thawing permafrost is
another mechanism that contributes to warming. In addition, the melting ice will also
release CH4 which also creates a positive feedback. The ability of the ocean to absorb
carbon also decreases as it warms, this is caused by decreased nutrient levels in the
mesopelagic zone thus limiting the growth of diatoms rather than phytoplankton which
are low carbon absorbers.
 3. Variations of the Sun
There is a hypothesis that variations from the sun, possibly amplified by feedback
from clouds, may contribute to the current warming. The difference between this
mechanism and greenhouse warming is that increased solar activity will heat the
stratosphere instead of the greenhouse effect cooling the stratosphere. Cooling of the
lower stratosphere has been observed since at least 1960, which would not be the case if
solar activity were a major contributor to current warming. The thinning of the ozone
layer can also provide such a cooling effect but the thinning began in the late 1970s.
Solar variation phenomena combined with volcanic activity may have provided warming
effects from pre-industrial times until 1950, as well as cooling effects since 1950. There
are some studies suggesting that the sun's contribution to global warming may have been
overlooked. Two scientists from Duke University estimate that the sun may have
contributed to a 45-50% increase in global average temperatures during the period 1900-
2000, and about 25-35% between 1980 and 2000. Stott and colleagues suggest that
current climate models that serve as guidelines overestimate the effects of greenhouse
gases compared to the effects of the sun; they also suggest that the cooling effects of
volcanic dust and sulfate aerosols have also been underestimated. Nevertheless, they
conclude that even with climate's increased sensitivity to solar influences, much of the
warming that has occurred in recent decades is due to greenhouse gases. In 2006, a team
of scientists from the United States, Germany, and Switzerland stated that they found no
increase in the sun's luminosity in the last thousand years. The solar cycle has given only
a small increase of about 0.07% in its brightness over the last 30 years. These effects are
too small to contribute to global warming. A study by Lockwood and Fröhlich found that
there is no relationship between global warming and solar variation since 1985, either
through variations in solar output or variations in cosmic rays.

B. Measuring Global Warming

 As early as 1896, scientists speculated that burning fossil fuels would alter the
composition of the atmosphere and could raise global average temperatures. This hypothesis was
confirmed in 1957 when researchers working on a global research program called the
International Geophysical Year took atmospheric samples from the summit of Mauna Loa in
Hawaii. The measurements showed an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. After that, the composition of the atmosphere continued to be carefully measured.
The data collected indicate that there is indeed an increase in the concentration of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere. Scientists have also long suspected that the global climate is warming,
but they have been unable to provide conclusive evidence. Temperatures vary continuously from
time to time and from one location to another. It takes years of climate observation to get data
that shows a clear trend. Records from the late 1980s somewhat show this warming trend, but
these statistics are sparse and unreliable. Weather stations were initially located close to urban
areas so temperature measurements would be affected by the heat emitted by buildings and
vehicles as well as the heat stored by building materials and roads. Since 1957, data has been
obtained from reliable weather stations (located away from cities), as well as from satellites.
These data provide more accurate measurements, especially of the 70 percent of the planet's
surface that is covered by oceans. These more accurate data show that the tendency to warm the
Earth's surface is actually happening. Looking at the end of the 20th century, it is recorded that
the ten warmest years in the last 100 years occurred after 1980, and the three warmest years
occurred after 1990, with 1998 being the warmest. In a 2001 report, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global air temperatures have increased by 1 degree
Fahrenheit (0.6°C) since 1861. The panel agrees that the warming is primarily due to human
activities that add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The IPCC predicts that global average
temperature increases will increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) between 1990 and 2100. The
IPCC panel also warned, that although the concentration of gases in the atmosphere has not
increased since 2100, the climate continues to warm for a period of time due to previously
released emissions. Carbon dioxide will remain in the atmosphere for a hundred years or more
before nature can reabsorb it. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, experts predict,
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide could triple by the early 22nd century compared
with pre-industrial times. As a result, there will be dramatic climate change. Although these
climate change events have occurred several times throughout Earth's history, humans will face
this problem with enormous population risks.

C. The Effects of Global Warming

Scientists use computer models of temperature, precipitation patterns, and atmospheric
circulation to study global warming. Based on these models, scientists have made several
predictions about the impact of global warming on weather, sea level rise, coastlines, agriculture,
wildlife life, and human health.

1. The climate becomes unstable

Scientists predict that during global warming, the northern part of the Northern
Hemisphere will warm more than any other region on Earth. As a result, the icebergs will
melt and the land will shrink. There will be less ice floating in those northern waters.
Areas that previously experienced light snow may not experience it again. In the
mountains of the subtropics, the snow cover will be less and will melt faster. The
growing season will be longer in some areas. Temperatures in winter and at night will
tend to rise. Warmer regions will become more humid because more water evaporates
from the oceans. Scientists are not so sure whether this moisture will actually increase or
decrease warming further. This is because water vapor is a greenhouse gas, so its
presence will increase the insulating effect on the atmosphere. However, more water
vapor will also form more clouds, thus reflecting sunlight back into outer space, where
this will slow the heating process (see water cycle). High humidity will increase rainfall,
on average, by about 1 percent for every degree of warming. Rainfall worldwide has
increased by 1 percent in the last 100 years. Storms will become more frequent. In
addition, water would evaporate faster from the soil. As a result, some areas will become
drier than ever before. The winds will blow stronger and probably in a different pattern.
Hurricanes, which derive their strength from water evaporation, will become larger. As
opposed to the warming that is happening, some very cold periods are likely to occur.
Weather patterns are becoming more unpredictable and extreme.

2. Sea level rise

 As the atmosphere warms the ocean surface will also warm, causing its volume to
expand and raising sea levels. Warming will also melt much of the polar ice, especially
around Greenland, which further increases the volume of water in the oceans. Sea level
rise worldwide has increased 10-25 cm (4-10 inches) during the 20th century, and IPCC
scientists predict further increases of 9-88 cm (4-35 inches) in the 21st century. Changes
in sea level will greatly affect life in coastal areas. A 100-centimeter (40-inch) rise would
submerge 6 percent of the Netherlands, 17.5 percent of Bangladesh, and many islands.
Erosion of cliffs, beaches, and dunes will increase. When sea levels reach the mouths of
rivers, tidal flooding increases on land. Rich countries will spend huge amounts of money
to protect their coastal areas, while poor countries may be able to evacuate only from
coastal areas. Even a slight rise in sea level would have a major impact on coastal
ecosystems. A 20-inch [50 cm] rise would submerge half of the coastal swamps in the
United States. New swamps will also form, but not in urban areas and built-up areas. This
sea level rise will cover most of the Everglades, Florida.

3. Global Temperatures are on the rise

One might think that a warmer Earth would produce more food than ever before,
but this is actually not the case in some places. Southern Canada, for example, may
benefit from higher rainfall and longer growing seasons. On the other hand, semi-arid
tropical farmland in some parts of Africa may not be able to grow. Desert agricultural
areas that use irrigation water from distant mountains can suffer if the winter snowpack,
which serves as a natural reservoir, melts before the peak of the growing season. Food
crops and forests can suffer even greater insect and disease attacks.

4. Ecological Disruption
Animals and plants become living things that are hard to escape from these
warming effects because much of the land has been taken over by humans. In global
warming, animals tend to migrate towards the poles or up mountains. Plants will change
their growth direction, seeking new areas because their old habitat becomes too warm.
Human development, however, will prevent this migration. Species migrating north or
 south that are hindered by cities or farmland may die out. Some types of species that are
not able to move rapidly toward the poles may also become extinct.

5. Social and Political Impact

Changes in weather and oceans can lead to heat stroke and death. Hot
temperatures can also lead to crop failures that lead to famine and malnutrition. Extreme
weather changes and rising sea levels due to melting Arctic ice can cause diseases
associated with natural disasters (floods, storms and fires) and deaths from trauma.
Natural disasters are usually accompanied by the displacement of people to places of
refuge where diseases are common, such as: diarrhea, malarial fever, micronutrient
deficiencies, psychological trauma, skin diseases, and others. Ecosystem shifts can
impact the spread of waterborne diseases as well as vector-borne diseases. Like an
increase in hemophilia because of the emergence of new spaces for these mosquitoes to
breed. With this climate change, some species of disease vectors (eq aedes aegypti),
viruses, bacteria, plasmodiums become more resistant to certain drugs that target the
organism. It's also predictable that some species will naturally become selective or extinct
because of these extreme ecosystem harvests. This will also have an impact on climate
change which could have an impact on the increase in cases of certain diseases like ISPA.
Environmental degradation caused by sewage pollution in rivers also contributes to
waterborne and vector-borne diseases. In addition to air pollution, uncontrolled emissions
from industrial gases will further contribute to respiratory diseases such as asthma,
allergies, coccidioidomycosis, chronic heart and lung disease, and others.

D. Controlling Global Warming

The world's total consumption of fossil fuels is increasing by 1 percent a year. None of
the measures being taken or discussed today can prevent future global warming. The challenge
now is to address the effects while taking steps to prevent further climate change in the future.
Severe damage can be addressed in a number of ways. Coastal areas can be protected with walls
and barriers to prevent seawater from entering. In another way, the government can help
populations on the coast to move to higher ground. Some countries, like the United States, can
save plants and animals by maintaining their habitat corridors, clearing undeveloped land from
south to north. Species can slowly move along these corridors to cooler habitats. There are two
main approaches to slowing down the rise of greenhouse gases. First, it prevents carbon dioxide
from being released into the atmosphere by storing the gas or its carbon components elsewhere.
This is called carbon sequestration. Second, reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

1. Eliminating Carbon
The easiest way to get rid of carbon dioxide in the air is to conserve trees and
plant more trees. Trees, especially young and fast-growing ones, absorb vast amounts of
carbon dioxide, break it down through photosynthesis, and store the carbon in their wood.
Worldwide, the rate of deforestation has reached alarming levels. In many areas, crops
grow back very little because the soil loses its fertility when it is converted for other uses,
such as farmland or residential construction. The step to tackle this is reforestation, which
helps to reduce the increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide can also be
removed directly. The method is to inject the gas into the oil wells to push the oil to the
surface (see Enhanced Oil Recovery). Injection can also be done to isolate this gas
underground such as in an oil well, coal seam or aquifer. This has been done at one of
Norway's offshore drilling rigs, where carbon dioxide carried to the surface along with
natural gas is captured and injected back into the aquifer so that it cannot return to the
surface. One contributing source of carbon dioxide is the burning of fossil fuels. The use
of fossil fuels began to increase rapidly since the industrial revolution in the 18th century.
At the time, coal was the dominant source of energy until it was replaced by petroleum in
the mid-19th century. In the 20th century, gas energy became commonly used in the
world as an energy source. This shift in fossil fuel use has actually indirectly reduced the
amount of carbon dioxide released into the air, because gas releases less carbon dioxide
than oil, let alone coal. Nevertheless, the use of renewable energy and nuclear energy
further reduces carbon dioxide emissions into the air. Nuclear energy, while controversial
for safety reasons and its hazardous waste, does not emit carbon dioxide at all.

2. International agreement
International cooperation is needed to succeed in reducing greenhouse gases. In
1992, at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 150 nations pledged to tackle the
problem of greenhouse gases and agreed to translate this intention into a binding
agreement. In 1997 in Japan, 160 nations formulated a stronger agreement known as the
Kyoto Protocol. The agreement, which has not yet been implemented, calls on the 38
industrialized countries that hold the largest percentage of greenhouse gas emissions to
cut their emissions to 5 percent below 1990 levels. This reduction should be achieved by
2012 at the latest. Initially, the United States proposed more ambitious cuts, pledging to
cut emissions by 7 percent below 1990 levels; the European Union, which wanted a
tougher deal, committed 8 percent; and Japan 6 percent. The remaining 122 countries,
mostly developing countries, were not required to commit to reducing emissions.
However, in 2001, the newly elected President of the United States, George W. Bush,
announced that he would not seek reelection. Bush announced that the agreement to
reduce carbon dioxide was very costly. He also denies this, stating that developing
countries are not burdened with these carbon dioxide reduction requirements. The Kyoto
Protocol has no effect if the industrialized countries responsible for 55 percent of
greenhouse gas emissions in 1990 do not ratify it. The conditions were successfully met
when in 2004, Russian President Vladimir Putin ratified the treaty, paving the way for its
entry into force on 16 February 2005. Many people criticize the Kyoto Protocol for being
too weak. Even if this agreement were implemented soon, it would only slightly reduce
the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Stronger action will be
needed later, especially since developing countries excluded from this agreement will
account for half of greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. Opponents of this protocol have a
very strong position. Opposition to the treaty in the United States was mainly expressed
by the oil industry, the coal industry and other companies whose production depends on
fossil fuels. These opponents claim that the economic cost of implementing the Kyoto
Protocol could reach $300 billion, mainly due to energy costs. By contrast, proponents of
the Kyoto Protocol believe that the cost is only $88 billion and can be more or less
recouped in the form of savings after switching to more efficient equipment, vehicles,
and industrial processes. In a country with strict environmental policies, the economy can
continue to grow even though various forms of pollution have been reduced. But limiting
carbon dioxide emissions is proving difficult to do. For example, the Netherlands, a
major industrial nation that is also an environmental pioneer, has successfully tackled a
wide range of pollution but has failed to meet its targets for reducing carbon dioxide
emissions. After 1997, the representatives of the signatories of the Kyoto Protocol met
regularly to negotiate unresolved issues such as regulations, methods and penalties that
would be mandatory for each country to apply to slow greenhouse gas emissions.
Negotiators devised a system whereby a country with a successful cleanup program could
profit by selling unused pollution rights to another country. This system is called carbon
trading. For example, a country that is struggling to improve its yields, like the
Netherlands, can buy pollution credits on the market, which can be obtained at a lower
cost. Russia, is a country that benefits from this system. In 1990, Russia's economy was
in tatters and its greenhouse gas emissions were very high. Since then Russia managed to
cut its emissions by more than 5 percent below 1990 levels, it was in a position to sell
emission credits to other industrialized countries, especially those in the European Union.