X ~ Binomial( , )

FOUNDATIONS OF
X ~ Normal( , )
X ~ Poisson( )

WITH
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HELLO!
I am Elijah Appiah from
Ghana.
I am an Economist by
profession.
I love everything about R!

You can reach me:

secret behind the smile! [email protected]
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Lecture Series
Introduction to Data and Statistics

Foundations of Probability

Inferential Statistics

Modeling and Regression Analysis

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Lesson Goals
Introduce the basics of probability,
probability calculations for random
events, and probability distributions
in R.
Fundamentals relevant for providing
a conceptual framework for
statistical inference.
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Probability
There is a random process.
We know the outcomes that could happen
but not the particular outcome that will
happen.

Examples of random processes:

Coin toss, Rolling a die, Stock Market, etc.
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Probability Events

P(A) = Probability of Event A

Fundamental Rule of Probability

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Schools of Thought

Frequentist View – proportion of

times an outcome occurs.

Bayesian View – subjective

degree of belief.
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DISTRIBUTION
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Probability of Random Event

Toss a coin.
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Probability of Random Event

Assume you toss a coin 10 times, and
Head appears each time. What do you think
the chance is that another head will come
up on the next toss? 0.5? Less than 0.5?
More than 0.5?

HHHHHHHHHH?
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Simulation with R

Simulate a coin toss

rbinom(n, size, prob)
Number of Probability of
Coin Outcomes
observations/draws occurrence
prob = 0.5 simulates a
size = 0 means one outcome (0 for tails) fair coin toss
size = 1 means two outcomes (0 for tails and 1 for heads) prob ≠ 0.5 simulates a
bias coin
size 2 means the number of ones (heads) that occur
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Now, let’s practice

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Binomial Distribution
Coin flips yield outcome that follow a
binomial distribution.

Number of Coins Probability

of Heads
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Fair Coins
When you flip a fair coin 10 times, what is
the most likely number of heads?

The likelihood of outcomes would be 5

heads and 5 tails.
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Density and Cumulative Density

Why 100,000 draws?

Simulate 100,000 draws from a binomial

distribution of X~Binomial(10, 0.5).
What is the probability of getting exactly 5
heads?

If you flip 10 coins each with a 50% chance of

getting heads, what is the probability exactly 5 of
them are heads?
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Now, let’s practice

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Density of Binomial Distribution

Mean of X~Binomial(10, 0.5)
with exactly 5 heads was
approximately 25%.

This is known as the density

of the binomial distribution at
exactly 5 heads (X = 5).
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Probability Density of Binomial Distribution

dbinom(n, size, prob)

Number of Heads Number of Probability

Coin Flips

dbinom(5, 10, 0.5)

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Now, let’s practice

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Cumulative Density of Binomial Distribution

Simulate 100,000 draws from a binomial

distribution of X~Binomial(10, 0.5).

What is the probability of getting 4 heads

or less?
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Now, let’s practice

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Cumulative Density
Mean of X~Binomial(10, 0.5)
with 4 heads or less was
approximately 38%.

This is known as the

cumulative density of the
binomial distribution at 4 heads
or less.
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Cumulative Density of Binomial Distribution

pbinom(q, size, prob, lower.tail = TRUE)

Number Number of
of Heads Probability If TRUE, ,
Coin Flips otherwise

pbinom(4, 10, 0.5)

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Now, let’s practice

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Properties of Binomial Distribution

Every distribution has a center and spread.

Measure of center for binomial distribution

is mean or expected value.

Measure of spread is variance.

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Mean and Variance of Binomial Distribution

Simulate 100,000 draws from a

binomial distribution with

Find the mean and variance.

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Now, let’s practice

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Mean and Variance of Binomial Distribution

Expected value:

Variance:
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Mean and Variance of Binomial Distribution

Mean:

Variance
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Mean and Variance of Binomial Distribution

What is the expected value and variance of a
binomial distribution with 100 coin flips with a
30% probability of getting heads?

Mean:

Variance:
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Probability of Random Events A and B

Let’s consider two events A and B.
Probability of Event A = Pr(A)
Probability of Event B = Pr(B)
Toss two coins. What is the probability of
obtaining two heads?
Head Head Tail Tail Total
Head Tail Head Tail Probability
0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 =1
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Probability of Random Events A and B

Pr(two Heads) = Pr(Heads) Pr(Heads)

=
=
Let’s try to see if simulating a binomial
distribution verifies this multiplicative rule
of probability.
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Probability of Random Events A and B

Simulate 100,000 draws of a fair coin flip

for an event A.
Simulate 100,000 draws of a fair coin flip
for an event B.

Is Pr(A and B) = Pr(A) Pr(B)?

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Probability of Random Events A and B

Simulate 100,000 draws of a bias coin flip

for an event A with probability of 0.2
coming up heads.
Simulate 100,000 draws of a bias coin flip
for an event B with probability of 0.7
coming up heads.
Is Pr(A and B) = Pr(A) Pr(B)?
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Probability of Random Events A and B

If events A and B are independent, and A

has a 40% chance of happening, and event
B has a 20% chance of happening, what is
the probability they will both happen?

Is Pr(A and B) = Pr(A) Pr(B)?

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Now, let’s practice

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Probability of Random Events A or B

Pr(A or B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) – Pr(A and B)

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Probability of Random Events A or B

Pr(A or B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) – Pr(A and B)

Pr(A or B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) – Pr(A) Pr(B)

Pr(A or B) = 0.5 + 0.5 – 0.5 0.5 = 0.75

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Probability of Random Events A or B

Simulate two events and find

the probability that either
events happen.
If coins A and B are independent, and A has a 60%
chance of coming up heads, and event B has a 10%
chance of coming up heads, what is the probability
either A or B will come up heads?
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Now, let’s practice

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Probability of Random Events A or B or C

Pr(A or B or C) =

Pr(A) + Pr(B) + Pr(C) –

Pr(A and B) – Pr(A and C) – Pr(B and C) +

Pr(A and B and C)
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Now, let’s practice

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Multiplying Random Variables

Flip a fair coin ten times and count the
number of heads.
Take that number and triple it. What
happens? Mean? Variance?
Simulate 100,000 draws from a binomial
distribution
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Now, let’s practice

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Multiplying Random Variables

When you multiply a random variable by a
number, you multiply the expected value by
that number.

The variance gets bigger by a factor of the

number squared.
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Adding Two Random Variables

Suppose:

What happens?
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Now, let’s practice

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Adding Two Random Variables

Did you observe what happened when two
variables are added?
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DISTRIBUTION
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Normal Distribution
Recall:

What happens when…

Visualize both distributions and observe!

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Now, let’s practice

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Normal Distribution
The normal distribution:

Mean Standard
Deviation
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Normal Distribution

rnorm(n, mean, sd)

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Normal Approximation to Binomial

Simulation:

Let’s approximate this to normal

distribution and compare histograms.
Recall:
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Now, let’s practice

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DISTRIBUTION
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Poisson Distribution
Flip many coins, each with a low
probability.
Simulate a binomial distribution with:
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Now, let’s practice

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Poisson Distribution

Mean
Note that the mean of the binomial
distribution with size 1000 and probability
1/1000 is 1.
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Poisson Distribution

rpois(n, lambda)
Number
Mean
of Draws
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Now, let’s practice

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Poisson Distribution
Interesting properties of Poisson
Distribution:
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DISTRIBUTION
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Geometric Distribution
Assume you flip a coin with 10% probability
of getting heads.
How many times would you have to flip the
coin until you get head?
You could get heads on the first trial, or
you could get it on the 1000th trial.
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Geometric Distribution
A situation where you wait for a random
event to occur is known as Geometric
Distribution.
Let’s simulate waiting for heads in a 100
draws.
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Now, let’s practice

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Geometric Distribution

Probability
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Geometric Distribution

rgeom(n, p)
Number
Probability
of Draws
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Now, let’s practice

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Any questions?

Reach me anytime!
Email
[email protected]
LinkedIn
https://www.linkedin.com/in/appiah-elijah-383231123/