Airbnb IPO
Airbnb IPO
Company name Airbnb There should be a check against the iteration box. If th
Numbers from your base year below ( in consistent units)
This year Last year
Country of incorporation United States
Industry (US) Hotel/Gaming
Industry (Global) Hotel/Gaming Last 10K Years since last 10K
Gross Bookings $ 26,491,803.00 $ 38,000,000.00 0.75
Revenues $ 3,625,731.00 $ 4,805,239.00 0.75
Operating income or EBIT $ (817,906.00) $ (501,543.00) 0.75
Interest expense $ 110,715.00 $ 9,968.00
Book value of equity $ 1,855,218.00 $ 2,423,817.00
Book value of debt $ 2,192,381.00 $ 381,374.00
Do you have R&D expenses to capitalize? Yes If you want to capitalize R&D, you have to input the
Do you have operating lease commitments? No If you have operating leases, please enter your lease c
Cash and Marketable Securities $ 4,495,211.00 $ 3,074,272.00
Cross holdings and other non-operating assets $ - $ -
Minority interests $ - $ -
Expected IPO Proceeds held in company $ 3,000,000.00
Number of shares outstanding = 671064.00 Counted RSUs
Current stock price = $ 50.00 Rumored price
Effective tax rate = 25.00%
Marginal tax rate = 25.00%
The value drivers below:
Gross Bookings growth rate for next year 40.00% Recovery from COVID
Revenues as % of Gross Bookings next year 12.65%
Operating Margin for next year -10.00%
Compounded Gross Bookng growth rate - years 2-5 = 25.00% Growth Lever
Target Revenues as % of Gross Bookings 14.00%
Target pre-tax operating margin (EBIT as % of sales in 25.00% Profitability Lever
Year of convergence 10.00 Speed of convergence level
Sales to capital ratio (for computing reinvestment) = 2.00 Efficency of Growth Lever
Market numbers
Riskfree rate 0.90%
Initial cost of capital = 6.50%
Other inputs
Do you have employee options outstanding? Yes
Number of options outstanding = 44839.00
Average strike price = $11.43
Average maturity = 5.00
Standard deviation on stock price = 40.00%
Default assumptions.
In stable growth, I will assume that your firm will have a cost of capital similar to that of typical mature companies (riskfree rate + 4.5%)
Do you want to override this assumption = No Mature companies generally see their risk levels appr
If yes, enter the cost of capital after year 10 = 7.50% Though some sectors, even in stable growth, may have
I will assume that your firm will earn a return on capital equal to its cost of capital after year 10. I am assuming that whatever competitive
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Mature companies find it difficult to generate returns
If yes, enter the return on capital you expect after year 1 10% But there are significant exceptions among companies
I will assume that your firm has no chance of failure over the foreseeable future.
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Many young, growth companies fail, especially if they
If yes, enter the probability of failure = 10% Tough to estimate but a key input.
What do you want to tie your proceeds in failure to? V B: Book value of capital, V= Estimated fair value for
Enter the distress proceeds as percentage of book or fair 50% This can be zero, if the assets will be worth nothing if
I will assume that your effective tax rate will adjust to your marginal tax rate by your terminal year. If you override this assumption, I will l
Do you want to override this assumption = No
I will assume that you have no losses carried forward from prior years ( NOL) coming into the valuation. If you have a money losing compa
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Check the financial statements.
If yes, enter the NOL that you are carrying over into yea $167,600.00 An NOL will shield your income from taxes, even afte
I will asssume that today's risk free rate will prevail in perpetuity. If you override this assumption, I will change the riskfree rate after year 1
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes If yes, you will be asked to enter a normal risk free ra
If yes, enter the riskfree rate after year 10 2.00% Enter your estimate of what the riskfree rate (in your
I will assume that the growth rate in perpetuity will be equal to the risk free rate. This allows for both valuation consistency and prevents "im
Do you want to override this assumption = No This is an option to let you use a negative growth rate
If yes, enter the growth rate in perpetuity -5.00% This can be negative, if you feel the company will dec
I have assumed that none of the cash is trapped (in foreign countries) and that there is no additional tax liability coming due and that cash is a neutral ass
Do you want to override this assumption No
If yes, enter trapped cash (if taxes) or entire balance (if mistru $140,000.00 Cash that is trapped in foreign markets (and subject to addi
& Average tax rate of the foreign markets where the cash is t 15% Additional tax rate due on trapped cash or discount being a
run this spreadsheet, go into preferences in Excel and check under Calculation options
k against the iteration box. If there is not, you will get circular reasoning errors.
w ( in consistent units)
ze R&D, you have to input the numbers into the R&D worksheet.
ases, please enter your lease commitments in the lease worksheet below and I will convert to debt
Computed numbers: Here is what your company's numbers look like, relative to industry.
If you are not working in US dollars, you should add the inflation differential to the industry averages.
Company Industry (US datIndustry (Global data)
Gross Booking growth rate in most recent year = -38.18% 8.35% 13.22%
Revenues as % of Gross Bookings in most recent 13.69%
Pre-tax operating margin in the most recent year -13.69% 19.22% 14.33%
Sales to capital ratio in most recent year = 2.65 0.72 0.77
Return on invested capital in most recent year= -36.24% 11.64% 8.80%
Standard deviation in stock prices = 34.10% 34.67%
Cost of capital = 6.31% 5.93%
Valuation Output Feedback (for you to use to fine tune your inputs, if you want)
Revenues in year 10, based on your revenue growth = $ 21,797,416
Pre-tax Operating Income in year 10, based on your operating m $ 5,449,354
Return on invested capital in year 10, based on your sales/capital 39.12%
Check the Diagnostics worksheet for more details.
eign markets (and subject to additoinal tax) or cash that is being discounted by the market (because of management mistrust)
trapped cash or discount being applied to cash balance because of mistrust.
orporate it into your stable cost of capital estimate.
debt payments.
Implied variables
Sales to capital ratio 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Invested capital $ 1,370,158 $ 1,903,142 $ 2,552,191 $ 3,340,033 $ 4,334,613 $ 5,590,064 $ 6,894,337
ROIC -36.24% -24.65% -7.04% 1.13% 8.82% 13.91% 15.20%
7 8 9 10 Terminal year Check these revenues against
15.80% 11.20% 6.60% 2.00% 2.00% a. Overall market size
### ### ### ### ### b. Largest companies in this market
13.60% 13.73% 13.87% 14.00% 14.00%
### ### ### ### ###
13.39% 17.26% 21.13% 25.00% 25.00%
### ### $ 4,384,361.72 ### $ 5,449,354.12 ### This is is how much your operating income
grew over the ten-year period.
25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
### ### $ 3,288,271.29 ### $ 4,087,015.59
### ### $ 737,082.27 $ 310,523.69 $ 817,403.12 ### This is how much capital you
invested over the ten year period.
$ 479,323.10 ### $ 2,551,189.02 ### $ 3,269,612.47
$ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
The Assumptions
Base year In 2021 Years 2-5 Years 6-10 After year 10
Gross Bookings &
Growth Rate ### 40.00% 25.00% 2.00%
Revenues as % of
Gross Bookings 13.69% 12.65% 14.00%
Link to story
Growth continues, as hotels
scale back growth plans after
COVID shock. of scale allow
Mild economies
slight increase in percent over
time
Higher margins than the hotel
business, but lower than ad
driven businesses.
Global/US marginal tax rate, Tie each assumption to the part of your story
after NOLs are used up. that relates to it.
Low capital intensity business
Networking benefits allow for
high value growth
Cost of capital moves up over tim
FCFF
$ (1,002,153)
$ (828,743) These are the numbers that come from your
$ (750,014) assumptions. The revenues over time reflect
$ (612,395) your revenue growth, the operating margins
$ (477,651) evolve towards your target margin and your
tax rate will change, if you have set it to. The
$ (256,322) reinvestment is estimated using the sales to
$ 479,323 capital ratio for the first 10 years and based
$ 1,439,380 on a reinvestment rate in stable growth (g/
$ 2,551,189 ROC).
$ 3,696,354
$ 3,269,612
After-Tax
Year Operating Change in Sales to Reinvestm FCFF Capital Implied
Income Revenues Capital ent Invested ROC
Cumulated
Year Cost of Cost of FCFF Terminal Present
Capital Value Value
Capital
1 6.50% 1.0650 ### ###
2 6.50% 1.1343 ### ###
3 6.50% 1.2081 ### ###
4 6.50% 1.2866 ### ###
5 6.50% 1.3703 ### ###
6 6.63% 1.4611 ### ###
7 6.75% 1.5597 ### ###
8 6.87% 1.6669 ### ###
9 7.00% 1.7836 ### ###
10 7.12% 1.9105 ### ### ###
Value of operating assets = ###
Valuing Options or Warrants
Enter the current stock price = $ 50.00
Enter the strike price on the option = $ 11.43
Enter the expiration of the option = 5.00
Enter the standard deviation in stock 40.00% (volatility)
Enter the annualized dividend yield 0.00%
Enter the treasury bond rate = 0.90%
Enter the number of warrants (option 44839.00
Enter the number of shares outstandi 671,064.00
d1 = 2.1316073
N (d1) = 0.9834804
d2 = 1.2371801
N (d2) = 0.8919899
Debt
Book Value of Straight Debt = $ 2,192,381.00
Interest Expense on Debt = $ 110,715.00
Average Maturity = 3
Approach for estimating pre-tax cost of debt Actual rating
If direct input, input the pre-tax cost of debt 4.000%
If actual rating, input the rating Ba2/BB
If synethetic rating, input the type of compan 2
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 3.85%
Tax Rate = 25%
Preferred Stock
Number of Preferred Shares = 0
Current Market Price per Share= 70
Annual Dividend per Share = 5
Output
Estimating Market Value of Straight Debt = ###
Estimated Value of Straight Debt in Convertible = $ -
Value of Debt in Operating leases = $ -
Estimated Value of Equity in Convertible = $ -
Levered Beta for equity = 0.96
Inputs
Over how many years do you want to amortize R&D expense 3 ! If in doubt, use the lookup table below
Enter the current year's R&D expense = ### The maximum allowed is ten years
Enter R& D expenses for past years: the number of years that you will need to enter will be determined by the amortization period
Do not input numbers in the first column (Year). It will get automatically updated based on the input above.
Year R& D Expenses
-1 976695.00 ! Year -1 is the year prior to the current year
-2 579193.00 ! Year -2 is the two years prior to the current year
-3 400749.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Output
Year R&D Expense Unamortized portion Amortization this year
Current 973576.00 1.00 973576.00
-1 976695.00 0.67 651130.00 ###
-2 579193.00 0.33 193064.33 ###
-3 400749.00 0.00 0.00 ###
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
Value of Research Asset = ### ###
Adjustment to Operating Income = ### ! A positive number indicates an increase in operating income (add to reported EBIT)
Tax Effect of R&D Expensing $80,341
tments to operating income, net
he amortization period
Output
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 3.85% ! If you do not have a cost of debt, use the synthetic rating estimator
Number of years embedded in yr 6 e 3 ! I use the average lease expense over the first five years
to estimate the number of years of expenses in yr 6
Converting Operating Leases into debt
Year Commitment Present Value
1 $ 287.00 $ 276.36
2 $ 235.00 $ 217.90
3 $ 194.00 $ 173.21
4 $ 151.00 $ 129.82
5 $ 98.00 $ 81.13
6 and beyon $ 201.67 $ 464.64 ! Commitment beyond year 6 converted into an annuity for ten years
Debt Value of leases = $1,343.07
Restated Financials
Depreciation on Operating Lease Asset = $ 167.88 ! I use straight line depreciation
Adjustment to Operating Earnings = $127.12 ! Add this amount to pre-tax operating income
Adjustment to Total Debt outstanding = $1,343.07 ! Add this amount to debt
Adjustment to Depreciation = $167.88
Mature Market ERP + 5.12% Updated Nov 5, 2020
If you want to update the spreads listed below, please visit http://www.bondsonline.com
For large manufacturing firms
If interest coverage ratio is
> ≤ to Rating is Spread is
-100000 0.199999 D2/D 21.66%
0.2 0.649999 C2/C 16.25%
0.65 0.799999 Ca2/CC 12.38%
0.8 1.249999 Caa/CCC 11.75%
1.25 1.499999 B3/B- 10.08%
1.5 1.749999 B2/B 8.25%
1.75 1.999999 B1/B+ 4.31%
2 2.2499999 Ba2/BB 2.95%
2.25 2.49999 Ba1/BB+ 2.32%
2.5 2.999999 Baa2/BBB 1.81%
3 4.249999 A3/A- 1.34%
4.25 5.499999 A2/A 1.19%
5.5 6.499999 A1/A+ 1.08%
6.5 8.499999 Aa2/AA 0.86%
8.50 100000 Aaa/AAA 0.76%
$75,872.00
$2,404.00
$24,171.00
$276.00
G&A 630.29 286.14 426.61 770.76
Marketing Costs 2369.47 1128.78 1219.73 2460.42
Content Costs 9967.54 4703.01 5876.21 11140.74