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Analysis of relationship between meteorological and agricultural drought using standardized

precipitation index and vegetation health index

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2017 IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 54 012008

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54 (2017) 012008 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012008

International Conference on Recent Trends in Physics 2016 (ICRTP2016) IOP Publishing

Journal of Physics: Conference Series 755 (2016) 011001 doi:10.1088/1742-6596/755/1/011001

Analysis of relationship between meteorological and

agricultural drought using standardized precipitation index
and vegetation health index

U Ma’rufah1, R Hidayat1*, I Prasasti2

1
Department of Geophysics and Meteorology,Faculty of Mathematics and Natural
Science, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia
2
Remote Sensing Application Center, Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and
Space (LAPAN), Pasar Rebo, Jakarta, Indonesia

E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract. Agricultural drought is closely related to meteorological drought in which the

agricultural drought is an impact of meteorological drought. This study aim to understand the
duration, spatial extent, severity and lag time of meteorological and agricultural drought during
El Niño years. The data used in this study are monthly data of CHIPRS and MODIS.
Meteorological drought and agricultural drought are intensified in the El Niño years. The
duration of meteorological drought is different in each region but generally occurs during June
to November. Agricultural drought mostly occurs from August to November. Spatially,
meteorological drought and agricultural drought in 2015 has wider extent and higher severity
(SPI <-2 and VHI <10) than in 2002. Agricultural drought generally intensified in areas that
have monsoonal rainfall type such as Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Lampung, southern part of
Kalimantan, and southern part of Sulawesi. We found that VHI is significantly correlated with
SPI-3 reach 58% of the total area of Indonesia. It means rainfall deficit during three months has
a significant impact on agricultural drought in Indonesia. In general, SPI-3 and VHI clearly
explain the relationship between meteorological drought and agricultural drought in Indonesia.

1. Introduction
El Niño is widely known as global-scale climate anomalies which clearly modulates rainfall anomalies
in many parts of the world including Indonesia [1]. Decreasing rainfall during El Niño frequently
causes dryness over major part of Indonesia. In Indonesia some extreme drought occured
simultaneously with El Niño event such as in 1997/1998, 2002/2006, 2006/2007, and 2009/2010 [2].
Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management (BNPB) also mentioned that El Niño in 2015
resulted in Puso in 111,000 ha farming area [3].
Drought has a significant impact on the economic, agriculture, environment, and social. Drought
event during El Niño 2002 caused a Puso in 42,000 ha of paddy fields in Java [4]. Monitoring drought
needs to be done to minimize such drought impact. Various drought indices have been developed by a
number of previous studies to determine the duration and severity of drought [5]. These indices have
been developed based on different parameters so that each drought indices reflects different drought
conditions.

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54 (2017) 012008 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012008

Drought indices is widely applied for monitoring drought are Standardized Precipitation Index
(SPI) and the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) [6-8]. SPI is a meteorological drought index that shows
level of drought due to rainfall deficit while the VHI is an agriculture drought index based on remote
sensing that shows stress level of crops due to drought. VHI is constructed by combining the
Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and the Temperature Condition Index (TCI) [6-10].
Agricultural drought is closely related to meteorological drought in which the agricultural drought
is basically the impact of meteorological drought. In general, plants do not respond to the
meteorological drought directly. It seems there is a lag time between meteorological drought and
agricultural drought. Therefore, the objectives of this study are (1) to identify the duration, spatial
extent, and severity of drought and (2) to determine lag time of meteorological drought and
agricultural drought in Indonesia during El Niño events.

2. Methodology

2.1. Standardized Precipitation Index

SPI is calculated in different time scale 1,3,6,9, and 12 months (SPI-, SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-9 and SPI-12)
based on CHIRPS data. CHIPRS is rainfall data set incorporating infrared Cold Cloud Duration
(CCD) observation and in-situ stasion data for trend analysis and seasonal drought monitoring [11].
SPI calculation requires historical precipitation data at least 30 years. So that, CHRIPS data from 1981
to 2015 are used to do the calculation. The SPI calculation is conductedby following McKee et.al
(1993) [12]. Meteorological drought category based on SPI shown in Table 1.

Table 1.Classification of drought severity by WMO [13]

SPI Category
-1,0 < SPI ≤ 1,0 Normal
-1,5 < SPI ≤ -1,0 Moderate
-2,0 < SPI ≤ -1,5 Severe
SPI < -2,0 Extreme

2.2. Vegetation Health Index

MODIS data that consist of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST)
are used to calculate VCI and TCI, respectively [8].We usetime series data from 2001 to 2015 to
calculate their minimum and maximum values. The calculation of VCI and TCI is shown byfollowing
equations:

E − Emin
VCI = 100 x E (1)
max − Emin

where E is EVI value of a given month. Emin and Emax denote the maximum and minimum EVI values,
respectively, for the month from multiyear time series.

Lmax −L
TCI = L x 100 (2)
max −Lmin

where L is LST value of a given month. Lmin and Lmax denote the maximum and minimum LST values,
respectively, for the month from multiyear time series. VHI are calculated based on VCI and TCI
value using equation 3 [10]

VHI = (0.5 x VCI)+ (0.5 x TCI) (3)

Agricultural drought classified into five category shown in Table 2 [10].

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54 (2017) 012008 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012008

Table 2. Agricultural drought category besed on VHI

VHI Category
< 10 Extreme
< 20 Severe
< 30 Moderate
< 40 Mild
>40 No Drought

2.3. Correlation analysis between SPI and VHI

Correlation analysis is conducted spatially between SPI and VHI over Indonesia region.This analysis
is used to determine the time lag between meteorological drought and agricultural drought over the
region.

3. Result and Discussion

3.1. Meteorological Drought

Figure 1. Spatial distribution of SPI in normal year(2013), weak El Niño (2002), and Strong El Niño
(2015)

Meteorological drought is analyzed based on 1-month SPI (SPI-1). SPI-1 has significant correlation
with rainfall so it is more appropriate to use it to analysis the meteorological drought [14]. The
calculation of SPI-1 was done from 1981 to 2015. However, this study focuses on the drought

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54 (2017) 012008 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012008

conditions that occurred in 2002, 2013 and 2015. SPI-1 in 2002, 2013 and 2015 was chosen to explain
the spatial distribution of drought in Indonesia during weak El Niño (2002), normal (2013), and a
strong El Niño (2015).
El Niño has significant impact on the occurrence of meteorological drought in Indonesia [2]. In a
normal year (2013), most of regions in Indonesiaare not affected by drought (see Figure 1). Drought
occurs only in some parts of southern Indonesia (e.g. Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara) and some part of
northern Indonesia (e.g. north Sumatera and west Kalimantan). Southern region of Indonesia
experienced drought from August to November, while the northern part of Indonesia such as Sumatera
and Kalimantan experience drought from June to November. Moderate to extreme drought occured in
this year.
Drought during weak El Niño (2002) was not spread uniformly across Indonesia (see Figure 1).
Southern part of Indonesia experienced drought earlier than other region that is started from June. In
addtion, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua experienced drought from July and some part of Sumatera
experienced drought from August and reachits peakin October. In general, the drought is in the
category of moderate to extreme drought with dominated by strong drought.
Drought in a strong El Niño (2015) occured almost over the regions during July to October as seen
in Figure 1. In June, drought has occured only in Java and Sumatra, while in November drought
occured only in the southern part of Indonesia. The peak of the drought observed in October. In
general, the drought is in the category of moderate to extreme drought.

3.2. Agricultural Drought

Figure 2.Spatial distribution of VHI in normal year(2013), weak El Niño (2002), and Strong El Niño
(2015)

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 LISAT IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54 (2017) 012008 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012008

Decreasing levels of soil water or water stress can causes transpiration, photosynthesis, and retrieval of
ions decrease that ultimately lead to impair growth and development of plants [15]. Reducing soil
water content in constantly lead to agricultural drought [7]. This study used VHI to understand the
duration, spatial distribution, and severity or category of agricultural drought. As well as SPI-1, VHI
in 2002, 2013 and 2015 were chosen to determine the spatial distribution of agricultural drought in
Indonesia during weak El Niño (2002), normal (2013), and strong El Niño (2015). Figures 2 show
spatial distribution of VHI during normal year, weak El Niño, and Strong El Niño.
Agricultural drought in Indonesia is generally in the category of moderate to severe in the El Niño
year. In 2013, drought observed from September to October in category mild to moderateespecially in
the southern part of Indonesia. While in 2002, the drought started from August to November where
drought dominantly occured in the southern part of Indonesia such as Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara,
southern part of Kalimantan, and southern part of Sulawesi. In this year, drought occurred in the
category of mild to extreme in which extreme droughts observed in October. Moreover, drought
occurred from August to November in mild to extreme category during 2015 which extreme drought is
dominant in October. In all cases (2002, 2013, and 2015) drought were observed in the southern part
of Indonesia. Due tomost of the region are dominanted by crops. Wang and Liu (2014) pointed out
that crops area more quickly respond to drought than the forest [9].

3.3. Relationship between Meteorological and Agricultural Drought

Meteorological drought and agricultural drought generally has lagged in time [9]. It is exist due to
soil water content is not reduced directly when rainfallgradually decreased. Spatially SPI-1, SPI-3,
SPI-6, SPI-9, and SPI-12 are positively correlated with VHI in most Indonesian regionas seen in
Figure 3. The correlation coefficient has increased from SPI-1 to SPI-3, then tend to be declined
following the increase in time scale. Percentage of coveragewith significant correlation coefficient
also increased from SPI-1 to SPI-3, then gradually decline following the increase in the time scale
(Table 3).

Figure3. Spatial correlation between SPI time scales and VHI

The coefficient correlation between the SPI-3 and VHI is 0.63 with significant at 99% level. The
high coeficcient correlation covers about 58% of Indonesian region. It implies that the total deficit of
rainfall for three months giving a significant impact on agricultural drought or it can be speculated

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 LISAT IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54 (2017) 012008 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012008

that the lag time between meteorological and agriculture drought is about three months. Significant
coefficient correlation values on SPI-3 and VHI are common in the southern part of Indonesia. This
might be explained that the southern part of Indonesia are mostly center for crop production. This
finding is agreed with previous studies (e.g. Wang et al, 2014; Huang et al, 2015). They pointed out
crops respond to the drought after a rainfall deficit for three months [9,16].

Table 3. Data of correlation between SPI and VHI

Percentage of coverage with
Maximum Minimum significant correlation
Correlation Correlation Level Level Total
Correlation Value Value 95% 99%
SPI-1 and VHI 0,55 -0,33 19% 38% 57%
SPI-3 and VHI 0,63 -0,32 15% 43% 58%
SPI-6 and VHI 0,58 -0,35 16% 31% 47%
SPI-9 and VHI 0,58 -0,47 15% 24% 39%
SPI-12 and VHI 0,61 -0,5 13% 15% 28%

Table 4. Coefficient correlation betweenSPI and VHI in some territory and containing notea
SPI-1 and SPI-3 and SPI-6 and SPI-9 and SPI-12 and
Territory VHI VHI VHI VHI VHI
Bali 0,34** 0,37** 0,32** 0,25 ** 0,21**
Demak 0,14 0,19* 0,16 * 0,13 0,13
Kediri 0,25 ** 0,30 ** 0,21** 0,12 0,08
Cianjur 0,19 * 0,23 ** 0,19 * 0,19 * 0,17 *
Progo 0,29 ** 0,38 ** 0,32 ** 0,18 * 0,17 *
Lamongan 0,09 0,11 0,06 0,01 -0,01
Karawang -0,01 0,05 0,07 0,05 0,09
a
Note are referenced using alpha superscripts
*(**)
correlation with significant level 95% (99%)

Mostly paddy fields in Indonesia is located in southern part and 40% centered on Java Island [17].
Territories of Java and Bali are choosen to get more detail about the correlation between SPI and VHI
in paddy field. The correlation between SPI and VHI in paddy fields in most areas of Java and Bali
(see Table 4) also show that the correlation increases in 3-months scale (SPI-3). Moreover, the
coefficient correlation gradually decreased in SPI-6, SPI-9, and SPI-12. We noted that Karawang has a
different pattern due towell-maintenance dirrigation system. Again, Table 4 shows the higher
coefficient correlation between SPI dan VHI is in 3-months scale (SPI-3). It shows that the agricultural
drought, especially in crop land, occurs after rainfall deficit for three months. We speculated that in
generally agricultural drought in the majority of land crop has 3 months behind the occurrence of
meteorological drought.

4. Conclusion
Meteorological drought and agricultural drought in Indonesia is more intensive during the El Niño
years. The duration of meteorological drought is different in each region but generally observe during
June to November. However, agricultural drought mostly occurs from August to November. In strong
El Niño (2015), we found wider extent and higher severity of meteorological drought than in weak El
Niño (2002). Areal extent and severity of meteorogical drought generally is increased in each month
and reached its peak in October. Agricultural drought in strong El Niño (2015) also has wider areal

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54 (2017) 012008 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012008

extent and higher severity compared to weak El Niño (2002). The intensive agricultural drought
mostly occurs in the areas with monsoonal precipitation such as Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Lampung,
southern part of Kalimantan, and southern part of Sulawesi. Moreover, VHI is significantly correlated
with SPI-3 which accounted for 58% of the total area of Indonesia. It implies that the deficit of rainfall
during three months has a significant impact on agricultural drought in Indonesia. In other words the
agricultural drought is seen about 3-month behind the occurrence of meteorological drought.
Therefore, SPI-3 and VHI clearly explain the relationship between meteorological drought and
agricultural drought in Indonesia.

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