 Q&A

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020 12

 Q&A

These variations in the temperature trend are clearly evident in the

FIGURE 4. The climate observed temperature record [FIGURE 4]. Short-term natural climate
system varies naturally from
year to year and from decade variations could also affect the long-term human-induced climate change
to decade. To make reliable signal and vice-versa, because climate variations on different space and
inferences about human-in-
duced climate change, multi- timescales can interact with one another. It is partly for this reason that
decadal and longer records are climate change projections are made using climate models (see infobox,
typically used. Calculating a
“running average” over these p.23) that can account for many different types of climate variations and
longer timescales allows one their interactions. Reliable inferences about human-induced climate
to more easily see long-term
trends. For the global average change must be made with a longer view, using records that cover many
temperature for the period decades.
1850-2019 (using the data
from the UK Met Office
Hadley Centre relative to the
1961-90 average) the plots
show (top) the average and
range of uncertainty for an-
nually averaged data; (2nd plot)
the annual average temp-
erature for the ten years
centred on any given date; (3rd
plot) the equivalent picture for
30-year; and (4th plot) the 60-
year averages. Source: Met
Office Hadley Centre, based
on the HadCURT4 dataset
from the Met Office and Cli-
matic Research Unit ( Morice
et al., 2012).

DID THE SLOWDOWN OF WARMING DURING THE 2000S TO

EARLY 2010S MEAN THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS NO LONGER
HAPPENING?
No. After the very warm year 1998 that followed the strong 1997-98 El

10 Niño, the increase in the average surface temperature slowed relative to

the previous decade of rapid temperature increases. Despite the slower
rate of warming, the 2000s were warmer than the 1990s. The limited
period of slower warming ended with a dramatic jump to warmer
temperatures between 2014 and 2015, with all the years from 2015-2019
warmer than any preceding year in the instrumental record. A short-term
slowdown in the warming of Earth’s surface does not invalidate our
understanding of long-term changes in global temperature arising from
human-induced changes in greenhouse gases.
Decades of slow warming as well as decades of accelerated warming
occur naturally in the climate system. Decades that are cold or warm
compared to the long-term trend are seen in the observations of the past
150 years and are also captured by climate models. Because the
atmosphere stores very little heat, surface temperatures can be rapidly
affected by heat uptake elsewhere in the climate system and by changes in
external influences on climate (such as particles formed from material
lofted high into the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions).

13 CLIMATE CHANGE
  Q&A

More than 90% of the heat added to the Earth system in recent decades has
been absorbed by the oceans and penetrates only slowly into deep water.
A faster rate of heat penetration into the deeper ocean will slow the
warming seen at the surface and in the atmosphere, but by itself it will not
change the long-term warming that will occur from a given amount of
CO2. For example, recent studies show that some heat comes out of the
ocean into the atmosphere during warm El Niño events, and more heat
penetrates to ocean depths in cold La Niñas. Such changes occur
repeatedly over timescales of decades and longer. An example is the major
El Niño event in 1997–98 when the globally averaged air temperature
soared to the highest level in the 20th century as the ocean lost heat to the
atmosphere, mainly by evaporation.

Even during the slowdown in the rise of average surface temperature, a

longer-term warming trend was still evident (see Figure 4). Over that
period, for example, record heatwaves were documented in Europe
(summer 2003), in Russia (summer 2010), in the USA (July 2012), and in
Australia (January 2013). Each of the last four decades was warmer than
any previous decade since widespread thermometer measurements were
introduced in the 1850s. The continuing effects of the warming climate are
seen in the increasing trends in ocean heat content and sea level, as well as
in the continued melting of Arctic sea ice, glaciers and the Greenland ice
sheet.

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020 14

 THE BASICS OF  Q&A
CLIMATE CHANGE

Greenhouse gases affect Earth’s energy balance and climate.

The Sun serves as the primary energy source for Earth’s climate. Some of
the incoming sunlight is reflected directly back into space, especially by
bright surfaces such as ice and clouds, and the rest is absorbed by the
surface and the atmosphere. Much of this absorbed solar energy is re-
emitted as heat (longwave or infrared radiation). The atmosphere in turn
absorbs and re-radiates heat, some of which escapes to space. Any
FIGURE B1. Greenhouse ga- disturbance to this balance of incoming and outgoing energy will affect
ses in the atmosphere, inclu- the climate. For example, small changes in the output of energy from the
ding water vapour, carbon
dioxide, methane, and nitrous Sun will affect this balance directly.
oxide, absorb heat energy and
emit it in all directions (inc-
luding downwards), keeping If all heat energy emitted from the surface passed through the atmosphere
Earth’s surface and lower at- directly into space, Earth’s average surface temperature would be tens of
mosphere warm. Adding more
greenhouse gases to the atmo- degrees colder than today. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, including
sphere enhances the effect, water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, act to make the
making Earth’s surface and
lower atmosphere even war- surface much warmer than this because they absorb and emit heat energy
mer. Image based on a figure in all directions (including downwards), keeping Earth’s surface and lower
from US Environmental Pro-
tection Agency. atmosphere warm [FIGURE B1]. Without this greenhouse effect, life as
we know it could not have evolved on our planet. Adding more
greenhouse gases to the atmosphere makes it even more effective at
preventing heat from escaping into space. When the energy leaving is less
than the energy entering, Earth warms until a new balance is established.

Greenhouse gases emitted by human activities alter Earth’s energy balance

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020 B1

 BASIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE

and thus, its climate. Humans also affect climate by changing the nature of
the land surfaces (for example by clearing forests for farming) and through
the emission of pollutants that affect the amount and type of particles in
the atmosphere.

Scientists have determined that, when all human and natural factors are
considered, Earth’s climate balance has been altered towards warming,
with the biggest contributor being increases in CO2.

Human activities have added greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous

oxide have increased significantly since the Industrial Revolution began.
In the case of carbon dioxide, the average concentration measured at the
Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii has risen from 316 parts per million
(ppm)1 in 1959 (the first full year of data available) to more than 411 ppm
in 2019 [FIGURE B2]. The same rates of increase have since been
recorded at numerous other stations worldwide. Since preindustrial times,
the atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased by over 40%,
methane has increased by more than 150%, and nitrous oxide has
increased by roughly 20%. More than half of the increase in CO2 has
occurred since 1970. Increases in all three gases contribute to warming of
Earth, with the increase in CO2 playing the largest role. See page B3 to
learn about the sources of human emitted greenhouse gases.

Scientists have examined greenhouse gases in the context of the past.

Analysis of air trapped inside ice that has been accumulating over time in
Antarctica shows that the CO2
______________

1 that is, for every million molecules in the air, 316 of them were CO2

FIGURE B2. Measurements of

atmospheric CO2 since 1958 from
the Mauna Loa Observa-tory in
Hawaii (black) and from the
South Pole (red) show a steady
annual increase in atmos-pheric
CO2 concentration. The
measurements are made at re-
mote places like these because
they are not greatly influenced by
local processes, so therefore they
are representative of the back-
ground atmosphere. The small
up-and-down saw-tooth pattern
reflects seasonal changes in the
release and uptake if CO2 by
plants. Source: Scripps CO2
program

B2 CLIMATE CHANGE
 BASIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE

concentration began to increase significantly in the19thHalocarbons,

century [FIGUREincluding
B3], after staying in the range of 260 to 280 ppm for the previous 10,000
chlorofluorocarbons
years. Ice core records extending back 800,000 years show(CFSs),
thatareduring
chemicals
that
used as refrigerants and
time, CO2 concentrations remained within the range of fire170 to 300Inppm
retardants. addi-
throughout many “ice age” cycles — see infobox, pg.tion B4 toto learn
being about
potent
the ice ages — and no concentration above 300 ppm greenhouse
is seen ingases,
ice coreCFCs
also damage the ozone
records until the past 200 years. layer. The production of
most CFCs has now been
banned, so their impact
FIGURE is B3. CO2 variations
starting to during the past 1,000 years,
decline.
obtained from analysis of air
However, many trapped
CFC re- in an ice core ex-
placements are tracted
also po-
from Antarctica (red
tent greenhousesquares),
gasesshow a sharp rise
in atmospheric CO2 starting
and their concentrations
in the late 19th century.
and the concentrations
Modern of atmospheric mea-
other halocarbons conti-from Mauna Loa
surements
nue to increase. are superimposed in gray.
Source: figure by Eric
Wolff, data from Etheridge
el al., 1996; MacFarling
Meure et al., 2006; Scripps
CO2 Program.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) has both


Learn about the sourcesof human-emitted greenhouse gases:
has both natural and human and natural
human sources, but sources, and levels have
CO2 levels are in- risen significantly since
pre-industrial times due
creasing primarily be- to human activities such
cause of the combus- as raising livestock, gro-
tion of fossil fuels, wing paddy rice, filling
cement production, de- landfills, and using natu-
forestation (which re- ral gas (which is mostly
CH4 some of which may
duces the CO2 taken up be released when it is ex-
by trees and increases tracted, transported, and
the CO2 released by used ).
decomposition of the
detritus), and other  Nitrous oxide (N2O)
land use changes. In- concentrations have risen
primarily because of ag-
creases in CO2 are the ricultural activities such
single largest contribu- as the use of nitrogen-
tor to global warming. based fertilisers and land
use changes.

B2 CLIMATE CHANGE
 BASIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Measurements of the forms (isotopes) of carbon in the modern atmosphere

show a clear fingerprint of the addition of “old” carbon (depleted in
natural radioactive 14C) coming from the combustion of fossil fuels (as
opposed to “newer” carbon coming from living systems). In addition, it is
known that human activities (excluding land use changes) currently emit
an estimated 10 billion tonnes of carbon each year, mostly by burning
fossil fuels, which is more than enough to explain the observed increase in
concentration.

These and other lines of evidence point conclusively to the fact that the
elevated CO2 concentration in our atmosphere is the result of human
activities.

Climate records show a warming trend.

Estimating global average surface air temperature increase requires careful

analysis of millions of measurements from around the world, including
from land stations, ships, and satellites. Despite the many complications of
synthesizing such data, multiple independent teams have concluded
separately and unanimously that global average surface air temperature
has risen by about 1 °C (1.8 °F) since 1900 [FIGURE B4]. Although the
record shows several pauses and accelerations in the increasing trend, each
of the last four decades has been warmer than any other decade in the
instrumental record since 1850.

Going further back in time before accurate thermometers were widely

available, temperatures can be reconstructed using climate-sensitive
indicators “proxies” in materials such as tree rings, ice cores, and marine

Learn about the ice ages: Through a combination of theory, temperature change during an
observations, and modelling, sci- ice-age cycle is estimated as 5
Detailed analyses of ocean
entists have deduced that the ice °C ± 1 °C (9 °F ± 2 °F).
sediments, ice cores and other
ages* are triggered by recurring
data show that for at least the
variations in Earth’s orbit that *Note that in geological
last 2.6 million years, Earth
primarily alter the regional and terms Earth has been in an
has gone through extended
seasonal distribution of solar ice age ever since the An-
periods when temperatures
energy reaching Earth. These re- tarctic Ice Sheet last formed
were much lower than today
latively small changes in solar about 36 million years ago.
and thick blankets of ice
energy are reinforced over thou- However, in this document we
covered large areas of the
sands of years by gradual changes have used the term in its more
Northern Hemisphere. These
in Earth’s ice cover (the cryo- colloquial usage indicating
long cold spells, lasting in the
sphere), especially over the Nor- the regular occurrence of
most recent cycles for around
thern Hemisphere, and in atmos- extensive ice sheets over
100,000 years, were inter-
pheric composition, eventually North America and Northern
rupted by shorter warm
leading to large changes in global Eurasia.
‘interglacial’ periods, inc-
temperature. The average global
luding the past 10,000 years.

B4 CLIMATE CHANGE
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

sediments. Comparisons of the thermometer record with these proxy

measurements suggest that the time since the early 1980s has been the
warmest 40-year period in at least eight centuries, and that global
temperature is rising towards peak temperatures last seen 5,000 to 10,000
years ago in the warmest part of our current interglacial period.

Many other impacts associated with the warming trend have become
evident in recent years. Arctic summer sea ice cover has shrunk
dramatically. The heat content of the ocean has increased. Global average
sea level has risen by approximately 16 cm (6 inches) since 1901, due both
to the expansion of warmer ocean water and to the addition of melt waters
from glaciers and ice sheets on land. Warming and precipitation changes
are altering the geographical ranges of many plant and animal species and
the timing of their life cycles. In addition to the effects on climate, some of
the excess CO2 in the atmosphere is being taken up by the ocean,
changing its chemical composition (causing ocean acidification).
FIGURE B4. Earth’s glo-
bal average surface tempe-
rature has risen, as shown
in this plot of combined
land and ocean measure-
ments from 1850 to 2019
derived from three analy-
ses, of the available data
sets. The top panel shows
annual average values from
the three analyses, and the
bottom panel shows deca-
dal average values, inclu-
ding the uncertainty range
(grey bars) for the maroon
(Had-CRUT4) dataset. The
temperature changes are
relative to the global ave-
rage surface temperature,
averaged from 1961-1990.
Source: NOAA Clim-
ate.gov, based on IPCC
AR5. Data from UK Met
Office Hadley Centre (ma-
roon), US National Aero-
nautics and Space Admin-
istration Goddard Institute
for Space Studies (red),
and US National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Adminis-
tration National Centers
for Environment Infor-
mation (orange).

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020 29