Forecast Accuracy

220
Forecast
MAD = 2.75 218

MSE = 10.857143
216
MAPE = 1.2837%
214

Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error2 % Error |% Error| 212

1 217 215 2 2 4 0.92% 0.92%
2 213 216 -3 3 9 -1.41% 1.41% 210

3 216 215 1 1 1 0.46% 0.46%

208
4 210 214 -4 4 16 -1.90% 1.90%
5 213 211 2 2 4 0.94% 0.94% 206

6 219 214 5 5 25 2.28% 2.28%

204
7 216 217 -1 1 1 -0.46% 0.46% 1 2 3 4 5
8 212 216 -4 4 16 -1.89% 1.89%
Per
9

Actual
220

218

216

214

212

210

208

206

204
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Period

Actual Forecast
Moving Average

44
MAD = 1.67
43
MSE = 6.94
42

Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error2 41

1 42 40
2 40
39
3 43
4 40 41.666667 -1.666667 1.6666667 2.7777778 38

5 41 41 0 0 0 37
6 38 41.333333 -3.333333 3.3333333 11.111111
36
7 39.666667
35
1 2 3 4 5 6

Period

Actual Forecast
 4 5 6

Period

ual Forecast
Exponential Smoothing
50

a= 0.2 MAD = 2.29 45

MSE = 8.27 40

35
Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error 2
30
1 19
25
2 18 19 -1 1 1
15 20
3 18.8 -3.8 3.8 14.44
4 20 18.04 1.96 1.96 3.8416 15

5 18 18.432 -0.432 0.432 0.186624 10

6 22 18.3456 3.6544 3.6544 13.354639 5
7 22 19.07648 2.92352 2.92352 8.5469692
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Period

Actual Forecast
 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Period

Actual Forecast
Linear Trend Equation

800
Slope = 0.7143 MAD = 1.51
Intercept = 16.285714 MSE = 3.76 780

760
Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error 2

740
1 19 17 2 2 4
2 18 17.714286 0.2857143 0.2857143 0.0816327 720
3 15 18.428571 -3.428571 3.4285714 11.755102
700
4 20 19.142857 0.8571429 0.8571429 0.7346939
5 18 19.857143 -1.857143 1.8571429 3.4489796 680
6 22 20.571429 1.4285714 1.4285714 2.0408163
660
7 22 21.285714 0.7142857 0.7142857 0.5102041
8 640
9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

10 Period
11
12 Actual Forecast
5 6 7 8 9 10

Period

tual Forecast
Trend and Seasonal
Slope = 7.5 Period Season Trend Index Forecast
Intercept = 124 1 4 131.5 0.95 124.925
2 1 139 1.2 166.8
3 2 146.5 1.1 161.15
Season Index 4 3 154 0.75 115.5
4 0.95 5 4 161.5 0.95 153.425
1 1.2 6 1 169 1.2 202.8
2 1.1 7 2 176.5 1.1 194.15
3 0.75 8 3 184 0.75 138
9 4 191.5 0.95 181.925
10 1 199 1.2 238.8
11 2 206.5 1.1 227.15
12 3 214 0.75 160.5
13 4 221.5 0.95 210.425
14 1 229 1.2 274.8
15 2 236.5 1.1 260.15
16 3 244 0.75 183
300

250

200

150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Period

Trend Forecast
Compute Seasonal Indexes

Period Season Actual MA Center Index Season Average

1 Tues 67 Index
2 Wed 75 Tues 0.8688
3 Thur 82 Wed 1.0460
4 Fri 98 71.857143 1.3638171 Thur 1.1980
5 Sat 90 70.857143 1.2701613 Fri 1.3648
6 Sun 36 70.571429 0.5101215 Sat 1.2383
7 Mon 55 71.857143 71 0.7746479 Sun 0.5339
8 Tues 60 70.857143 71.142857 0.8433735 Mon 0.7484
9 Wed 73 70.571429 70.571429 1.034413
10 Thur 85 71 71.142857 1.1947791 1.6
11 Fri 99 71.142857 70.714286 1.4 1.4
12 Sat 86 70.571429 71.285714 1.2064128 1.2
13 Sun 40 71.142857 71.714286 0.5577689 1
14 Mon 52 70.714286 72 0.7222222 0.8
15 Tues 64 71.285714 71.571429 0.8942116
0.6
16 Wed 76 71.714286 71.857143 1.0576541
0.4
17 Thur 87 72 72.428571 1.2011834
0.2
18 Fri 96 71.571429 72.142857 1.3306931
0
19 Sat 88 71.857143

Fri

Sat
Thur
Tues

Wed

Sun
20 Sun 44 72.428571
21 Mon 50 72.142857
 Standard
Index
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Fri

Sat
Thur
Tues

Mon
Wed

Sun
Simple Linear Regression
0.5

Slope = 0.0159 r = 0.9166657 0.45

Intercept = 0.0506008 r2 = 0.840276
0.4

x y Forecast Error 0.35

7 0.15 0.1621124 -0.012112 0.3

2 0.1 0.0824612 0.0175388
0.25
6 0.13 0.1461822 -0.016182

Y
4 0.15 0.1143217 0.0356783 0.2
14 0.25 0.273624 -0.023624
0.15
15 0.27 0.2895543 -0.019554
16 0.24 0.3054845 -0.065484 0.1
12 0.2 0.2417636 -0.041764 0.05
14 0.27 0.273624 -0.003624
20 0.44 0.3692054 0.0707946 0
0 5 10 15 20
15 0.34 0.2895543 0.0504457
7 0.17 0.1621124 0.0078876 X

Data Linear (Data)

 15 20 25

Linear (Data)