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Probability Distributions: - Dr. Niharika Verma

This document discusses probability distributions and introduces the binomial distribution. The binomial distribution describes the probability of obtaining a certain number of successes in a fixed number of trials when the probability of success is the same for each trial. It assumes that each trial results in only one of two possible outcomes (success/failure), the probability of success is constant for each trial, and trials are independent. The document provides the formula for calculating the probability of obtaining r successes out of n trials using the binomial expansion.

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Rahul Kumar
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41 views

Probability Distributions: - Dr. Niharika Verma

This document discusses probability distributions and introduces the binomial distribution. The binomial distribution describes the probability of obtaining a certain number of successes in a fixed number of trials when the probability of success is the same for each trial. It assumes that each trial results in only one of two possible outcomes (success/failure), the probability of success is constant for each trial, and trials are independent. The document provides the formula for calculating the probability of obtaining r successes out of n trials using the binomial expansion.

Uploaded by

Rahul Kumar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability Distributions

- Dr. Niharika Verma


[email protected]
• Sometimes it is possible to devise mathematically the frequency distribution of
certain populations. Such distribution are called “Theoretical distributions” or
“Probability distributions”.
• Not obtained by actual observations or experiments but are mathematically
deduced on certain assumptions.
• Three main types:
1) Binomial distributions
2) Poisson distributions
3) Normal distributions
Binomial Distribution
• Also known as Bernaoulli Distribution, since it was introduced by a swiss
mathematician, J. Bernoulli.
• The distribution is derived from a process known as a Bernoulli trial or as a
Bernoulli process.
• Bernoulli process is one where an experiment can result only one or two
mutually exclusive outcome such as success or failure, dead or alive and male or
female.
• Therefore, the binomial distribution describes the distribution of probabilities
where there are only two possible outcome for each trial of an experiment.
• For ex., if a coin is tossed once, there are two possible ways of outcome, the
head or the tail.
• The probability of obtaining a head is p= ½ and tail is q=1/2
• Thus (p+q) = 1 and binomial is (p+q)n
• Similarly if two coins are tossed simultaneously, there will be four possible
outcome:

First Coin Second Coin Probability


H H pp = p2

H T pq
= 2pq
T H
qp
T T qq = q2

• Binomial expression is (p+q)2 = p2 + 2pq + q2


• Suppose we toss three coins.
• The possible outcomes will be

First Coin Second Coin Third Coin Probability

H H H p3 = p3

H H T p2q
H T H
p2q = 3p2q
T H H
p2q
H T T pq2
T H T
pq2 = 3pq2
T T H
pq2
T T T q3 = q3

• The binomial expression is (p+q)3 = p3 + 3p2q + 3pq2 + q3


• The expansion (p+q)n is known as Binomial expansion.
• Here p stands for the probability of the head while q stands for the probability
of the tail and n stands for number of coins.

Assumptions of Binomial Distribution:


A sequence of Bernoulli trials form a Bernoulli process. We can describe this
process as follows:
1) Each trial has only two possible outcome “success” or “failure”
2) The probability of success denoted by ‘p’ remains constant from trial to
trial. Similarly the probability of failure denoted by ‘q’ should also be
constant for all trials.
3) All trials must be independent of each other. The outcome of any
particular trial is not affected by the outcome of any other trial.
Formula for the determination of probability in a binomial expansion:
In ‘n’ trials, the total number of possible ways of obtaining ‘r’ success
and failure (n-r) is:

Probability (r success out of n trials)


n!
𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑝𝑟 𝑞𝑛−𝑟
𝑟!(𝑛−𝑟)!

Where p is the probability of success with a single trial. The symbol ! Means
factorial which is computed as follows:
5! is 5x4x3x2x1 = 120
4! is 4x3x2x1 = 24
3! is 3x2x1 = 6
2! is 2x1 = 2
1! is 1 = 1
0! Is = 1 because, mathematically it is defined as equal to 1.

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