Journal of Water Resources and Geosciences
Vol. 1, No. 1
Forecasting of Future Irrigation Water Demand for Salah-addin
Province under Various Scenarios of Climate Change
Fouad H. Saeed 1,2, Mahmoud S. Al-Khafaji 3 and Furat A. Al-Faraj 4
1
Civil Engineering Department, University of Technology, Baghdad, Iraq;
[email protected] 2
Ministry of Water Resources, Baghdad, Iraq; [email protected]
3
Department of Civil Engineering, Al-Nahrain University, Baghdad, Iraq; mahmoud.s.al-
[email protected]
4
School of Engineering, University of Bolton, United Kingdom; [email protected]
Abstract
Irrigation water demand of a crop is largely dependent on climate conditions. The impact of climate change
on the demand of irrigation water needs more investigation. This paper aims to analyze the future trend in
irrigation demand under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5-Based climate changes scenarios for Salah-addin Province,
Iraq. The climate data recorded during 1990-2019 was projected to 2080 with 20 years of time steps using
LARS-WG model. The current and future weather data were inserted into CROPWAT-8. The results
showed that the climate of Salah-addin Province tends to become hotter and drier by year 2080 due to
increased average temperature by 5.72, 10.67 and 17.82% under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively.
Consequently, the evapotranspiration tends to increase by 4.6, 8.6 and 12.9% 5.72, 10.67 and 17.82% under
RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Moreover, the projected precipitation showed negative trend with -0.2,
-1.7 and -1.9% under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Therefore, the annual irrigation water demand
for studied area is expected to increase from 112.0 m3/s in reference period to 115.8, 119.7, 122.9 m3/s under
RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Results indicated that irrigation demand should be adapted by improving
irrigation efficiency for sustainable management water resources.
Key words: LARS-WG, CROPWAT, Irrigation, Climate change, Salah-addin
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التنبؤ بالطلب المستقبلي على مياه الري لمحافظة صالح الدين في ظل سيناريوهات مختلفة
لتغير المناخ
فؤاد حسين سعيد ،2،1محمود الخفاجي ،3فرات الفرج4
1قسم الهندسة المدنية ،الجاممعة التكنلوجية ،بغداد العراق
2وزارة الموارد المائية ،بغداد العراق
3قسم الهندسة المدنية ،جامعة النهرين ،بغداد العراق
4كلية الهندسة..جامعة بولتون..المملكة المتحدة
المستخلص
يعتمد الطلب على مياه الري لمحصول معين بشكل أساسي على الظروف المناخية .ان تأثير تغير بالمناخ على الطلب على مياه
الري إلى يحتاج الى مزيد من البحث .تهدف هذه الورقة إلى تحليل التوجه المستقبلي للطلب على مياه الري لمحافظة صالح
الدين الواقعة في العراق بموجب مسارات التركيز التمثيلية ) 2.6 (RCPsو 4.5و .8.5تم تسقيط بيانات المناخ المسجلة خالل
الفترة ( 2019-1990كفترة مرجعية) الى عام 2080باستخدام 20عا ًما من كخطوة زمنية باستخدام نموذج .LARS-WGحيث
تم إدراج بيانات الطقس الحالية والمستقبلية في .CROPWAT-8أظهرت النتائج أن المنطقة تتجه إلى أن تصبح أكثر احترار
وجفافًا بحلول عام 2080بسبب زيادة متوسط درجة الحرارة بمقدار 5.72و 10.67و ٪17.82تحت 2.6 RCPsو 4.5
و 8.5على التوالي .وفقًا لذلك ،يميل التبخر-النتح إلى الزيادة بنسبة 4.6و 8.6و 5.72 ٪12.9و 10.67و ٪17.82في
ظل 2.6 RCPsو 4.5و 8.5على التوالي .عالوة على ذلك ،أظهر هطول األمطار المتوقع اتجاهًا سلبيًا بنسبة 0.2-و -
1.7و ٪1.9-في إطار 2.6 RCPsو 4.5و 8.5على التوالي .لذلك ،من المتوقع أن يزداد الطلب السنوي على مياه الري
للمنطقة المدروسة من 112.0متر مكعب /ثانية في الفترة المرجعية إلى 122.9 ، 119.7 ، 115.8متر مكعب /ثانية في
إطار 2.6 RCPsو 4.5و 8.5على التوالي .أظهرت النتائج كذلك أن الطلب على مياه الري يجب أن يتم تكييفه من خالل
تحسين كفاءة الري لموارد المياه المستدامة.
الكلمات المفتاحية ،CROPWAT ، LARS-WG :الري ،التغيرات المناخية ،صالح الدين
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Introduction
Water is a crucial role of agricultural production and its most important input (Fischer et al. 2007).
Agriculture is the largest water demanded among human activities with almost 70% of surface and
ground water consumed by irrigation processes (Barsukova, 2017). The irrigation water for crops
is mainly dependent on climate conditions (Konzmann, Gerten, and Heinke 2013). Furthermore,
climate change plays a crucial role in determining future needs of irrigation water (Gorguner and
Kavvas ,2020). In arid and semi-arid regions, climate change is expected to put more pressure on
water resources (Liwenga, 2008). Global climate models showed that global warming will
accelerate with expected increase in surface air temperature by 2-6 ˚C (Cayan, et al., 2007).
Waha, et al., 2017 concluded that projected streamflow decrease by 15-45% and hot weather is
expected to influence one-third of the Middle East area. Sowers et al., 2011 indicated that water
supply in Iraq will be stressed by 2025 due to population growth and climate change. Awchi and
Kalyana, 2017 showed that the north of Iraq was suffered from frequent drought events during the
period from 1937 to 2010. Salman et al., 2020 found an increase in irrigation demand in Iraq during
the last 50 years. Saeed et al., 2021concluded that irrigation water requirement is expected to
increase due climate change in four irrigation projects located in Iraq.
Many researchers implemented Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator model
(LARS-WG) to project climate variables such as precipitation (Pcp) minimum and maximum
temperatures (Tmin and Tmax) with ability to project these variables to year 2100 under Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and four Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6 and RCP 8.5) (Semenov and Barrow 2002a; Kaini et al. 2020).
Tsakmakis et al., 2018; Moseki et al., 2019; Ewaid et al., 2019 successfully applied CROPWAT
to calculate the irrigation water needs in arid and semi-arid regions in Iraq and other locations
worldwide.
This paper aims to investigate the future climate by year 2080 including Tmin, Tmax and Pcp
for Tikrit climate station under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of greenhouse emissions. In
addition, to evaluate the future irrigation water requirements for Salah-addin Province by year
2080 using climate data extracted from the climate model. For this purpose, the Tmin, Tmax and
Pcp recorded in Tikrit climate station for the period from 1/1/1990 to 31/12/2019 were projected
by LARS-WG to three future period 2021-2040 (P1), 2041-2060 (P2) and 2061-2080 (P3) and
five General circulation Models (GCMs) named The Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1,
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Beijing Climate Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics (BCC-CSM1), The Canadian Earth
System-second generation Model (CanESM2), , Hadley Centre Global Environment Model-
version 2 (HadGEM2-ES) and Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organization (CSIRO-MK36) these data were inserted into CROPWAT-8 model to calculate
referenced evapotranspiration, net irrigation water requirement and required discharge for irrigated
areas feed from Tigris, Adhaim and Lesser Zab Rivers.
Research Methodology
Study Area
Salah-addin Province is located in the middle of Iraq between the coordinates 43°14'37.27"E,
35°34'50.72"N and 44°15'4.73"E, 33°44'11.21"N. The province is located in arid region of Middle
East with hot and dry summer and rainy and cold winter with average temperature in northern of
Iraq ranged from 7-43 ˚C (Rasul, et al., 2015). Most of rainfall occurs during the month from
November to May (Awchi and Kalyana ,2017).
The irrigated area fed from three sources namely Tigris River, with irrigated area of 186450×103
ha; Adhaim River, with irrigated area of 35100×103 ha and Lesser Zab River, with irrigated area
of 42100×103 ha. The cultivated areas are conventionally planted by seasonal, annual crops and
orchids. These crops include winter wheat, barley, autumn maize, spring maize, sunflower,
sorghum, cotton, autumn potato, spring potato, tomato, alfalfa perennial, winter small vegetables,
summer small vegetables, small grains, millet, soybean, table grapes, date palms and citrus (Japan
International Cooperation Agency ,2016). Figure (1) shows the location map for Saladin Province.
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Figure 1: Location map of Salah-addin Province.
Climate Model
LARS-WG is a statistical model developed for project Tmin, Tmax, Pcp and solar radiation based
on observed data recorded in the reference period (RP). The model implements the semi-empirical
distribution to measure the frequency of wet and dry days. The model is able to project climate
variables under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5 until year 2100 considering Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (Semenov and Barrow, 2002b).
Irrigation Water Model
CROPWAT-8 is a model developed by FAO for calculation of ETo, ETc and NIWR for multi
crops based on soil and weather data. The model predicts the referenced evapotranspiration (ET₀)
using on Penman–Monteith method (Eq. 1) to predict ETo using Tmin, Tmax, wind speed,
sunshine hours and relative humidity as input for required climate station (Allen, et al., 1998).
CROPWAT 8 calculates the crop evapotranspiration (ETc) based on calculated ET₀ and Kc as
shown in Eq. 2. The effective rainfall (Re) was predicted using USDA-soil conservation service
equation (Eq. 3). Moreover, the Net Irrigation Water Requirement (NIWR) was predicted by
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subtract R e from ETc (Eq. 4). The Gross Irrigation Water Requirement (GIWR) calculated by Eq.
5 liter/second per one hectare based on NIWR, soil and crop pattern defined by user.
900 γ U2 (es −ea )
0.408 ∆ (Rn−G)+
T+273
ET₀ = (1)
∆+γ(1+0.34 U2 )
Where: ET₀ is reference evapotranspiration in mm/day; Rn is net radiation at the crop surface in
MJ.m²/day; G is soil heat flux density in MJ.m²/day; T is mean daily air temperature at 2 m height
in °C; U2 is wind speed at 2 m height in m/s; es is mean Saturation vapor pressure in KPa; ea is
actual vapor pressure in KPa; ∆ is slope of saturation vapor pressure curve in KPa/°C and γ is
psychrometric constant in KPa/°C.
ETc = ET₀ × Kc (2)
Where: ETc is crop evapotranspiration in mm/day,
and Kc is dimensionless Crop coefficient.
(125−0.2 R)
Re = R for R ≤ 250 mm
125
R e = 125 + 0.1 R for R >250 mm (3)
Where: R e is Re (mm) and R total rainfall (mm).
NIWR = ETc − R e (4)
Where: NIWR is net irrigation water requirement in mm.
NIWR+Lr
GIWR = × 100 (5)
Ea
Where: GIWR is gross irrigation water requirement in mm, Ea is a fraction of application efficiency
and Lr is leaching requirement in mm which is predicted using the following; Lr = f × NIWR, and
f is in the range from 5-12 % according to available soil salinity (Rai, et al., 2017).
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Results and Discussions
It can be noticed from Figure (2) that lowest Tmin recorded in in the RP for Tikrit station was in
January with 4.8 ˚C and highest Tmax was found in July with 45.1 ˚C. Furthermore, the minimum
and maximum ETo was found in January and July with 62.7 and 390.6 mm, respectively, and the
annual ETo reach 2612.7 mm/year. The highest rate of Pcp for RP in Tikrit station recorded in
January with 32.1 mm and almost zero for months from June to September. The annual Pcp reach
155.3 mm/year.
50 Tmin Tmax 450
Eto Pcp
45 400
40 350
Temperature (˚C)
35
Pcp, ETo (mm)
300
30
250
25
200
20
150
15
10 100
5 50
0 0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Sep
May
Aug
Nov
Jul
Oct
Jun
Dec
Month
Figure 2: Recorded Tmin, Tmax, Eto and Pcp in RP for Tikrit station.
The projected Tmin shown in Figure (3) indicated a significant increase in Tmin. Under RCP
2.6 the highest increase can be observed in March with 11.25, 14.56 and 16.21% for P1, P2 and
P3, respectively. Whereas, the lower increase in Tmin was found in August with 2.32, 4.91 and
3.4 for P1, P2 and P3, respectively. Under RCP 4.5, the highest increase Tmin was found in March
and reach to 11.16, 17.08 and 20.06% for P1, P2 and P3, respectively, while, the lower increase
Tmin was found in August with 2.96, 6.52 and 7.94% for P1, P2 and P3, respectively. Under RCP
8.5 and P1, the highest increase in Tmin was found in March with 13.1% while, for P2 and P3 the
increase in Tmin was found in January with 26.27 and 51.11%, respectively. Moreover, the lower
increase in Tmin under this scenario was found in August with 3.62, 8.52 and 13.42% for P1, P2
and P3, respectively.
Figure ( 4 ) shows the percentage of increase for Tmax. Under RCP 2.6, the highest increase in
Tmax can be observed in January with 5.4, 8.2 and 8.3% for P1, P2 and P3, respectively. Whereas,
the lowest increase in Tmax was found in May for P1 and P2 with 1.3 and 2.2%, respectively, and
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in June for P3 with 2%. Under RCP 4.5 the highest increase in Tmax was observed in January and
could reach 6, 11.2 and 16.1% for P1, P2 and P3, respectively. While, the lowest increase for this
scenario for P1 and P2 was found in June with 2.1 and 3.8%, respectively, and in May for P3 with
5.4%. Under RCP 8.5, the figure shows the highest increase in Tmax for P1 with 6.4% in February
and 13.3% and in January with 21.7% for P2 and P3, respectively. Whereas, the lowest increase
for P1 was found in May with 2.4%, for P2 this increase was found 5% (in April) and for P3 the
lowest increase was found in June with 8%.
Figure (5) shows the future trend in projected ETo. Under RCP 2.6, the highest rate of increase
was found 3.8, 5.2 (both in November) and 5.9 (in March) for P1, P2 and P3, respectively.
Whereas, the lowest increase in ETo was found in June with 1, 1.8 and 1.5% for P1, P2 and P3,
respectively. Under RCP 4.5, the highest increase in ETo was 4.1, 6.8 (both in November) and
9.6% (in January) for P1, P2 and P3, respectively, while the lowest increase was found in June
with 1.5, 2.7 and 4.2% for P1, P2 and P3, respectively. Under RCP 8.5, the highest increase in
ETo could reach 3.8 (in January), 8.5 and 13.7% (both in November) for P1, P2 and P3,
respectively. Whereas, the lowest increase was found in June with 1.6, 4.1 and 6% for P1, P2 and
P3, respectively.
From the above results it can be found that Tmin, Tmax consequently ETo tend to increase in
winter months more than summer months due to climate change impact. These results agree with
Zhang, et al., 2005 who analyzed the trend in temperature for (Middle East and North Africa)
MENA during the period from 1950 to2003, results illustrated that the variability of temperature
in winter is much higher than summer.
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60 RCP 2.6 2021-2040 25
Tmin RCP 2.6 2041-2060
Tmax
RCP 2.6 2061-2080
50
RCP 4.5 2021-2040 20
RCP 4.5 2041-2060
40 RCP 4.5 2060-2080
RCP 8.5 2021-2040
Change (%)
Change (%)
15
RCP 8.5 2041-2060
30 RCP 8.5 2061-2080
10
20
5
10
0 0
Apr
Jan
Feb
Mar
May
Aug
Sep
Nov
Jul
Jun
Oct
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Sep
May
Aug
Nov
Jul
Jun
Dec
Oct
Month Month
Figure 3: Future trend in Tmin. Figure 4: Future trend in Tmax.
20 RCP 2.6 2021-2040
ETo RCP 2.6 2041-2060
RCP 2.6 2061-2080
RCP 4.5 2021-2040
RCP 4.5 2041-2060
15 RCP 4.5 2060-2080
RCP 8.5 2021-2040
Change (%)
RCP 8.5 2041-2060
RCP 8.5 2061-2080
10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Figure 5: Future trend in ETo.
Figure (6) shows, in general, a negative trend in expected Pcp for Tikrit Station. Under RCP
2.6, the highest decrease in Pcp could reach 2.2, 2.5 (both in December) and 3.7% (in January) for
P1, P2 and P3, respectively. Furthermore, under RCP 4.5, the highest negative trend was found
3.1, 3 (both in January) and 4.9% (in December) for P1, P2 and P3, respectively. More decreases
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in future Pcp can be found under RCP 8.5 with the highest rate of decline of 2.2 (in December), 3
(in January) and 6.3% (December) for P1, P2 and P3, respectively.
8.0
RCP2.6 2021-2040 RCP 2.6 2041-2060 RCP 2.6 2061-2080
6.0 RCP 4.5 2021-2040 RCP 4.5 2041-2060 RCP 4.5 2061-2080
4.0 RCP 8.5 2021-2040 RCP 8.5 2041-2060 RCP 8.5 2061-2080
Change (%)
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Figure 6: Future trend in Pcp.
Results of projected discharge required for agriculture indicated a positive trend in all scenarios
and future periods. No change can be observed in the months of maximum and minimum demand
for all areas irrigated from Tigris, Adhaim and Lesser Zab Rivers. In other words, under climate
change conditions the maximum irrigation demand occurs in May and the minimum irrigation
demand occurs in January.
Figure (7) shows irrigation demand for areas supplied from Tigris River. The maximum
(minimum) demand in RP for these areas was found in May (January) with 167.1 (13.1) m 3/s.
Under RCP 2.6, this maximum (minimum) demand increases to reach 169.7 (14.4), 171(14.4) and
172.3 (15.7) m3/s for P1, P2 and P3, respectively. In the same context, under RCP 4.5, the
maximum (minimum) irrigation water demand is expected to increase 169.7 (15.7), 172.3 (15.7
and 174.9 (17) m3/s for P1, P2 and P3, respectively. Whereas, under RCP 8.5, the maximum
(minimum) irrigation demand tends to increase to 171 (14.4) 171 (15.7) and 178.8 (19.9) m3/s for
P1, P2 and P3, respectively.
For irrigated areas feed from Adhaim River, Figure (8) shows that in the RP the maximum
(minimum) irrigation demand occurs in May (January) with 31.4 (2.5) m3/s, this amount tend to
increase under RCP 2.6 with 31.9 (2.7), 32.2 (2.7) and 32.4 (2.9) m3/s for P1, P2 and P3,
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respectively. Moreover, under RCP 4.5, the maximum (minimum) irrigation demand could reach
31.9 (2.9), 32.4 (2.9) and 32.9 (3.2) m3/s for P1, P2 and P3, respectively. Under RCP 8.5, the
maximum (minimum) irrigation demand is expected to increase with 32.2 (2.7), 32.2 (2.9) and
33.7 (3.7) m3/s for P1, P2 and P3, respectively.
The irrigation demand for areas supplied from Lesser Zab River, Figure (9) shows that
maximum (minimum) irrigation demand was 37.7 (2.9) m3/s, this demand tend to increase to 38.3
(3.2), 38.6 (3.2) and 38.9 (3.5) m3/s for P1, P2 and P3, respectively. Furthermore, under RCP 4.5,
the maximum (minimum) irrigation demand is expected to increase to 38.3 (3.5), 38.3 (3.5) and
39.5 (3.8) m3/s for P1, P2 and P3, respectively. Under RCP 8.5, the maximum (minimum)
irrigation demand tends to increase by 38.6 (3.2), 38.6 (3.5) and 40.4 (4.4) m3/s for P1, P2 and P3,
respectively.
200 RP
Tigris RCP 2.6 2021-2040
RCP 2.6 2041-2060
150 RCP 2.6 2061-2080
Discharge (m3/s)
RCP 4.5 2021-2040
RCP 4.5 2041-2060
RCP 4.5 2060-2080
100
RCP 8.5 2021-2040
RCP 8.5 2041-2060
RCP 8.5 2061-2080
50
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Figure 7: Future trend in irrigation water demand from Tigris River.
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40 RP
Adhaim RCP 2.6 2021-2040
35
RCP 2.6 2041-2060
30 RCP 2.6 2061-2080
Discharge (m3/s)
RCP 4.5 2021-2040
25
RCP 4.5 2041-2060
20 RCP 4.5 2060-2080
RCP 8.5 2021-2040
15 RCP 8.5 2041-2060
10 RCP 8.5 2061-2080
5
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Figure 8: Future trend in irrigation water demand from Adhaim River.
50 RP
Lesser Zab RCP 2.6 2021-2040
RCP 2.6 2041-2060
40
RCP 2.6 2061-2080
Discharge (m3/s)
RCP 4.5 2021-2040
30 RCP 4.5 2041-2060
RCP 4.5 2060-2080
RCP 8.5 2021-2040
20 RCP 8.5 2041-2060
RCP 8.5 2061-2080
10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Figure 9: Future trend in irrigation water demand from Lesser Zab River.
Conclusions
In this paper, the future irrigation water demand for Saladin Province was investigated under three
scenarios of greenhouse emissions, namely RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 and five GCMs. Using
LARS-WG model the recorded Tmin, Tmax and Pcp for Tikrit climate station during 1990-2019,
which considered as a reference period (RP), were projected into 2080 by 20 years of time steps
starting from 2021 (P1, P2 and P3). The climate data for RP, P1, P2 and P3 were inserted into
CROPWAT-8 to simulate the current and future ETo, ETc and NIWR for 19 crops traditionally
cultivated in study area.
From the results, it can be concluded that the climate of Salah-addin Province tends to become
drier and hotter due to increases in Tmax and Tmin, consequently increase of ETo. In general, the
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projected Pcp is expected to decrease with small increase under RCP 2.6 and P2. Due to these
warming conditions, the irrigation water demand is expected to increase which mean more
pressure on water supplies (Tigris, Adhaim and Lesser Zab River). The worst scenario is expected
under RCP 8.5 with increase in irrigation water by 10% compared with the demand in RP. In
parallel of this increase in irrigation demand there is many studies showed that available water
tend to decrease.
Results of this paper reflects the situation in all irrigated areas in Iraq. Therefore, it is highly
recommended to adapt these conditions by increasing the irrigation efficiency, changing crop
patterns, lining irrigation channels, applying deficit irrigation and improving of planting process
such as selecting more productive crops and crops of lower water needs. This adaptation process
could treat, to some extent, the expected decrease of water supplies and population growth for
sustainable water resources.
Acknowledgments
This work is for the benefit of the National Center for Water Resources Management (NCWRM)
of the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), Iraq under contract number 4-2021. Authors would
like to thank Iraqi Meteorological Organization and Seismology (IMOS) for providing
meteorological data. The authors are also grateful to the technical and faculty staff of the Civil
Engineering Department at the University of Technology, Iraq for the valuable support and
scientific assistance.
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