Probability

7
Contents
7.1 Random Experiments
and Events
7.2 Classical Definition of
Probability
7.3 Axiomatic Approach
to Probability
7.4 Independent and
Dependent Events
7.5 Random Variables
and Probability
Distributions
7.6 Theoretical Discrete
Distributions

Impossible Unlikely Even Chance Likely Certain Worked-Out Problems

Summary
Exercises
Answers

1-in- 6 Chance 4-in- 5 Chance

Sometimes ‘Human being’
vices lead to great inven-
Probability

tions. One such, gambling

disease of some 17th century
French people, is the main
root for the origin of
Probability. In modern day
science, statistics and prob-
ability are treated as almost
exact sciences. Probability is
vastly applicable in pharma-
ceutics, veterinary science
and defence fields.
490 Chapter 7 Probability

Probability is a measure of uncertainty and deals with the phenomenon of chance or randomness. We quite often
make unknowingly some decisions about probability. For example, when one leaves his house in the morning on a
cloudy day he may decide to take an umbrella with him, even if it is not raining, because he thinks that it may rain
later in the day.
The theory of probability is developed to explain such kind of decisions mathematically. Infact, the theory of
probability has its origins in gambling and games of chance. It is known that a French gambler Chevalier de Mere
approached a French mathematician Blaise Pascal for a solution of a problem concerning gambling. Pascal gave a
solution and subsequently he corresponded with another French mathematician Pierre de Farnat and established
the foundations of the theory of probability. Later Laplace, a French scientist, made first attempt towards giving
some mathematical rigour to the subject of probability. The present day theory of probability is credited to Andrei
Nikolaevich Kolmogorov, a 20th century Russian probabilist, who laid the set theoretic foundations of probability.

7.1 | Random Experiments and Events

In this section we define certain important elementary technical terms related to probability and discuss some exam-
ples concerning these. Let us begin with the following.

DEFINITION 7.1 Random Experiment A random experiment is an experiment in which

1. The experiment can be repeated any number of times under identical conditions.
2. All possible outcomes of the experiment are known in advance.
3. The actual outcome in a particular experiment is not known in advance.

Examples

(1) Rolling of an Unbiased Die This experiment can be performed any number of times
Rolling of an unbiased die is a random experiment in under identical conditions.
which all the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, if (2) Tossing of an Unbiased Coin
we denote the six faces of the die with the numbers 1, 2, Tossing of an unbiased coin is a random experiment in
T
3, 4, 5 and 6. The faces of the die may also contain dots which there are only two possible outcomes, namely, Head
in numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. In any case, we identify (H) and Tail (T). In a particular experiment (tossing of the
the faces of a die with the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. coin), the outcome is not known in advance.This experiment
The actual outcome in a particular experiment (rolling can also be performed any number of times under iden-
of the die) is the number that appears on the upper- tical conditions and therefore this is a random experiment.
most face of the die and this is not known in advance.

“Tossing of an unbiased coin till tail appears” is also a random experiment. However, experiments such as
“measuring the acceleration due to gravity using a compound pendulum” is not a random experiment, since the
experiment cannot be repeated under identical conditions and the possible outcomes are not known in advance.
Throughout this chapter, by a coin or die we always mean an unbiased coin (or a fair coin) or unbiased die (or a
fair die) unless otherwise mentioned.

DEFINITION 7.2 Some of the important definitions are as follows:

1. A set of possible outcomes of an experiment is called an event.
2. Two or more events are said to be exhaustive if the performance of the experiment always
results in the occurance of atleast one of them.
3. Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if the occurance of one of the events
prevents the occurance of any of the remaining events.
4. Two or more events are said to be equally likely (or equiprobable) if there is no reason to
expect one of them in preference to others.
 7.2 Classical Definition of Probability 491

Example

In rolling of a die, consider the events: and E2: occurrence of an odd number.
E1: occurrence of an even number (that is, an T
Then E1 and E2 are exhaustive, mutually exclusive and
even number appears on the upper most equiprobable.
face)

Example

If a coin is tossed, “the occurrence of Head” and “the occurrence of T

Tail” are exhaustive, mutually exclusive and
equiprobable.

Example 7.1

Consider the experiment of “throwing a pair of dice and

finding the sum of the two numbers that show up (on the Die-1
upper most faces).” The possible outcomes (events) are
+ 1 2 3 4 5 6
numbers 2 to 12 (i.e., a + b where 1 £ a £ 6 and 1 £ b £ 6).
These events are exhaustive and mutually exclusive, but 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
not equiprobable. Why? 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Die-2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Solution: These sums are not equally likely, as we can 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
observe from the following table. 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
The sum 12 occurs only once, the sum 10 appears 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
thrice and hence “the sum 12 occurs” and “the sum 10
occurs” are not equiprobable (or equally likely).

Example 7.2

In rolling of a die, consider the events Then E1, E2 and E3 are exhaustive, but not mutually
E1: occurrence of an even number exclusive. Why?
E2: occurrence of a prime number
Solution: This is because 2 occurs in both E1 and E2 as
and E3: occurrence of 1 it is both even and prime.

7.2 | Classical Definition of Probability

In the following we give a classical definition of probability and discuss certain examples.

DEFINITION 7.3 Suppose that in a random experiment there are n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equi-
probable possible outcomes. If m of them are favourable to the happening of an event E,
then the probability of occurance of E (or simply the probability of E) is defined as m/n and is
denoted by P(E). That is,
m
P(E ) =
n
Clearly 0 £ P(E) £ 1.
492 Chapter 7 Probability

Note that since the number of outcomes not favourable to an event E is n - m, the probability of non-occurance of
the event E is (n - m)/n and is denoted by P(Ec). That is,
n-m m
P (Ec ) = = 1 - = P(E )
n n

P (E ) + P (Ec ) = 1

Example 7.3

Suppose that an integer is picked from among 1 to 20 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17 and 19 and these are 8 in number.
(both inclusive). What is the probability of picking a Therefore, 8 are favourable to the event of picking a
prime? prime and hence the probability of picking a prime is
8 2
Solution: There are 20 outcomes of the experiment =
of picking an integer. The primes between 1 and 20 are 20 5

Example 7.4

Suppose that 8 dice are thrown. Find the probability that An outcome that none of the dice shows 3 can be
none of the dice shows 3 (on the upper most face). expressed as 8-tuple of integers from the 5-element set
{1, 2, 4, 5, 6} and there are 58 such outcomes. Thus, the
Solution: Any outcome of “throwing 8 dice” can be probability that none of the dice shows 3 is
expressed as an 8-tuple of integers from 1 to 6 and hence 8
the total number of possible outcomes is 68. 58 æ 5 ö
=ç ÷
68 è 6 ø

Example 7.5

Suppose that a bag contains 6 red, 5 black and 4 blue Drawing one blue, one black and one red ball simulta-
balls. Find the probability that three balls drawn simul- neously can be expressed as a triple (a1, a2, a3), where
taneously are one blue, one black and one red. 1 £ a1 £ 4, 1 £ a2 £ 5 and 1 £ a3 £ 6. The number of such
tuples is
Solution: The total number of balls is
4 ´ 5 ´ 6 = 120
6 + 5 + 4 = 15
Thus, the probability that 3 balls drawn simultaneously
Out of these 15 balls, 3 balls can be drawn in 15C3 ways. are one blue, one black and one red is
Therefore, 3 balls can be drawn simultaneously in
120 24
=
15× 14 × 13 455 91
= 455 ways
1× 2 × 3

Example 7.6

A number x is drawn arbitrarily from the set of integers 100. Let A be the event that the number x has the
from 1 to 100, both inclusive. Find the probability that property
100 100
x > 29 - x > 29 -
x x
Now
Solution: When we draw an arbitrary number x from
the set {1, 2, …, 100} the total number of outcomes is 100
x > 29 -
x
 7.2 Classical Definition of Probability 493

100 Therefore the number of cases favourable to A is 78.

Ûx+ > 29
x Thus the required probability is
Û x2 - 29 x + 100 > 0 78
P( A) = = 0.78
Û ( x - 25)( x - 4) > 0 100

Û x > 25 or x<4
Û x Î{1, 2, 3} È {26, 27, 28, …, 100}

Example 7.7

of the chosen two integers to be odd, one must be odd

Find the probability that their sum is odd. and the other must be even. Therefore, the number of
cases favourable is
Solution: The total number of ways of choosing 2 out
15 ´ 15 = 225
of 30 integers is
Thus, the required probability is equal to
30
C2 = 435
225 15
Out of these 30 integers, 15 are odd and 15 are even =
435 29
(since the given integers are consecutive). For the sum

7.2.1 Limitations of the Classical Definition

1. If the outcomes of a random experiment are not equally likely, the probability of an event in such an experiment
cannot be found. For example, the probability of a student passing an examination is not 1/2 as the outcomes of
success and failure in the examination are not equally likely.
2. If the random experiment contains infinitely many outcomes, then the classical definition cannot be applied for
the probability of an event in such an experiment. For example, tossing a coin until Head appears is a random
experiment in which there are infinite number of outcomes, namely all finite sequences of H’s and T’s (Heads and
Tails). The classical definition gives no answer for finding the probability that the Head never appears before 100th
tossing.
We have noticed certain limitations and deficiencies in the classical defination of probability. In order to over-
come one of these limitations, we now give the following definition which is known as the statisticall (or empiricall or
relative frequency) definition of probability.

DEFINITION 7.4 Let E be an event of a random experiment. Let the experiment be repeated n times out of
which E occurs mn times. Then the ratio
mn
rn =
n
is called the nth relative frequency of the event E. Clearly 0 £ mn £ n and hence 0 £ rn £ 1. If
{rrn} is a convergent sequence, then its limit is defined to be the probability of E and is denoted
by P(E). That is,
mn
P(E) = lim rn = lim
n®¥ n®¥ n
Z+.
It can be easily seen that 0 £ P(E) £ 1, since 0 £ rn £ 1 for all n ÎZ

One can easily observe the following deficiencies in the above statistical definition of probability
1. Repeating a random experiment infinitely many times is impossible.
2. The sequence of relative frequencies must be assumed to be convergent, which may not be true all the time.
494 Chapter 7 Probability

7.3 | Axiomatic Approach to Probability

We have noticed certain shortcomings and deficiencies both in the classical definition (Definition 7.3) and the statis-
tical definition (Definition 7.4). In order to overcome these shortcomings and deficiencies, a Russian probabilist
A.N. Kolmogorov has proposed an axiomatic approach to probability. Before going to this, first let us have certain
basic definitions.

DEFINITION 7.5 1. An outcome of a random experiment is called an elementary eventt or simple event.
2. The set of all outcomes of a random experiment is called the sample space associated with
the experiment. In other words, when x is a random experiment and S is the sample space
associated with x, then every element of S is an outcome of x and any performance of x
results in an outcome that corresponds to exactly one element of S.

DEFINITION 7.6 Some important terms are:

Let S be the sample space associated with a random experiment x.
1. The elements of S are called the sample points or elementary events of x.
2. A subset E of S is called an event. That is, a set of elementary events is called an event.
3. An event E is said to happen or occurs if an outcome of the experiment x belongs to E.
4. Otherwise, we say that E does not happen or E does not occur.
5. The empty set f and the whole set S, being subsets of S, are called impossible eventt and
certain (or sure) event, respectively.
6. The complement of the event E is the event given by S-E E and is denoted by Ec or E. Such
c
event called the complementary eventt of E. Usually E is denoted by E.

Example

Let x be the experiment of rolling a die. Then the sample event, “occurrence of a positive even integer £ 6 on the
space of x is the set S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, where the integers uppermost face of the die” is an event and “occurrence
denote the faces of the die. “Occurrence of a positive of a prime ³ 6 on the uppermost face of the die” is an
integer £ 6 on the uppermost face of the die” is a sure impossible event.

DEFINITION 7.7 1. A set S is set to be countably infinite if it is bijective with the set + of positive integers and,
in this case we can write S = {s1, s2, …, sn, …}.
2. A set S is said to be finite if S is empty or S is bijective with the set {1, 2, …, n} for some
n Î+ and in this case we write S = {s1, s2, …, sn} and say that S is an n-element sett or the
number of elements in S is n.
3. A set S is said to be atmost countable is S is either finite or countably infinite. For example
+,  are countably infinite sets.

Note that the sample space S of a random experiment x may be finite or infinite. Throughout our discussions in this
chapter, we take the sample space S of an experiment to be atmost countable; that is, either finite or countably infinite.
For example, the sample space in Examples (1) and (2) below Definition 7.1 are finite and that of the experiment
“Tossing a coin till tail appears” is countably infinite.

DEFINITION 7.8 Let E1, E2, …, En be some events of a random experiment x. That is, E1, E2, …, En are subsets
of the sample space S of x.
1. The events E1, E2, …, En are said to be mutually exclusive if Ei Ç Ej = f for all i ¹ j; that is,
if the happening of an event Ei prevents the happening of any other event Ej, j ¹ i.
2. The events E1, E2, …, En are said to be equiprobable or equally likely if there is no reason
to expect one of them to happen in preference to others.
 7.3 Axiomatic Approach to Probability 495

3. The events E1, E2, …, En are said to be exhaustive if E1 È E2 È  È En = S; that is, if the
performance of the experiment always results in the occurrence of at least one of Ei ’s.

Note that for any random experiment x whose sample space is S, the set of all possible events of x is Ã(S), the power
set of S (the set of all subjects of S). In the following we introduce Kolmogorov’s axiomatic approach to the theory of
probability.

DEFINITION 7.9 Let x be a random experiment and S its sample space and suppose that S is finite. Then a func-
tion P : Ã(S) ®  is called a probability function if it satisfies the following conditions.
1. Positive axiom: P(E) ³ 0 for all E ÎÃ(S)
2. Completeness axiom: Ã(S) = 1
3. Union axiom: If E1 and E2 ÎÃ(S) and E1 Ç E2 = f, then
P(E1 È E2 ) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 )
In this case, for any E ÎÃ(S), P(E) is called the probability of the event E. If E = {s}, then we
write P(s) for P({s}) for simplicity. In the case when S is countably infinite, we have to replace
(3) above by (3¢) given below.
3¢. If {En} is a sequence of mutually exclusive events, then

æ ¥ ö ¥
P ç ∪ En ÷ = å P(En )
è n=1 ø n=1

provided this infinite sum exist.

Example 7.8

Let S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} be the sample space of a random (2) Completeness axiom:

experiment. Define P(E) = å P( s) for any E £ S, where
sÎE P(S) = å P( s) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + P(5) + P(6)
sÎS
P(1) = 0.1
= 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.4 + 0.05 + 0.05
P(2) = 0.2 = P(3)
=1
P(4) = 0.4
(3) Union axiom: For any E1 and E2 ÎÃ(S) with
P(5) = 0.05 = P(6) E1 Ç E2 = f, we have

Show that P is a probability function. P(E1 È E2) = å

sÎE1 È E2
P( s) = å P( s) + å P( s) = P(E1) + P(E2)
sÎE1 sÎE2

Solution: We have
s ÎE1 È E2 if and only if s ÎE1 or s ÎE2 but not
(1) Positive axiom: both.
Thus P is a probability function.
P ( E ) = å P ( s) > 0
s ÎE

since P(s) > 0 for all s ÎS.

Try it out Let S = {H, T

T} be the sample space of a random experiment x and define
1
P( H ) = = P(T )
2
P(f ) = 0
and P (S ) = 1
Then verify that P is a probability function.
496 Chapter 7 Probability

In the following we prove certain important elementary properties of probability functions.

T H E O R E M 7.1 The following hold good for any probability function P on Ã(S), where S is the sample space of
a random experiment x.
1. P(f) = 0
2. If Ec is the complementary event of E, then

P (Ec ) = 1 - P (E )

3. 0 £ P(E) £ 1 for all E ÎÃ(S)

4. If E1 Í E2 Í S, then P(E2 - E1) = P(E2) - P(E1)
5. If E1 Í E2 Í S, then P(E1) £ P(E2)
6. If E1, E2, …, En are mutually exclusive events, then

P(E1 È E2 È  È En ) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 ) +  + P(En )

PROOF All these are derived from the axioms (1), (2) and (3) of Definition 7.9.
1. Since S Ç f = f, we have, from Axiom (3) of Definition 7.9 that

P(S) = P(S È f ) = P(S) + P(f )

and hence P(f) = 0.

2. Since E Ç Ec = f and E È Ec = S, we have
1 = P (S ) = P ( E È E c ) = P ( E ) + P ( E c )

and hence P(Ec) = 1 - P(E)

3. Since 1 - P(E) = P(Ec) ³ 0 [by Axiom (1), Definition 7.9], we get that

0 £ P(E ) £ 1

4. Let E1 Í E2 Í S, Then
E2 = E1 È (E2 - E1 )
and E1 Ç (E2 - E1 ) = f

Therefore, we have

P(E2 ) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 - E1 )

and hence

P(E2 - E1 ) = P(E2 ) - P(E1 )

5. If E1 Í E2 Í S, then
P(E2 ) - P(E1 ) = P(E2 - E1 ) ³ 0

[by Axiom (1), Definition 7.9] and hence

P(E1 ) £ P(E2 )

6. This follows by induction on n and by using Axiom (3), Definition 7.9. ■

Note: For any event E, P(E): P(E) (ratio) is called odds in favour of E and the ratio P(E): P(E) is odds against E.
 7.3 Axiomatic Approach to Probability 497

T H E O R E M 7.2 Let A, B and C be three events of a random experiment x and P is a probability function on Ã(S),
(A D D I T I O N where S is the sample space of x. Then the following hold.
THEOREM ON 1. P( A È B) + P( A Ç B) = P( A) + P( B)
PROBABILITY)
2. P( A - B) = P( A) - P( A Ç B)
3. P( A È B È C ) = P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) - P( A Ç B) - P( B Ç C ) - P(C Ç A) + P( A Ç B Ç C )

PROOF 1. From the Venn diagram in Figure 7.1, we have

A È B = [ A - ( A Ç B)] È ( A Ç B) È [ B - ( A Ç B)]

Now A - (A Ç B), A Ç B and B - (A Ç B) are mutually exclusive and hence

P( A È B) = P[ A - ( A Ç B)] + P( A Ç B) + P[ B - ( A Ç B)]

= P( A) - P( A Ç B) + P( A Ç B) + P( B) - P( A Ç B) [by (4), Theorem 7.1]

= P( A) + P( B) - P( A Ç B)

P( A È B) + P( A Ç B) = P( A) + P( B)

2. Since A - B = A - (A Ç B) and A Ç B Í A, we have

P( A - B) = P[ A - ( A Ç B)] = P( A) - P( A Ç B)

3. We make use of (1) repeatedly. Consider

P( A È B È C ) = P( A È B) + P(C ) - P[( A È B) Ç C ]

= P( A) + P( B) - P( A Ç B) + P(C ) - P[( A Ç C ) È ( B Ç C )]

= P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) - P( A Ç B) - [ P( A Ç C ) + P( B Ç C ) - P( A Ç C Ç B Ç C )]

= P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) - P( A Ç B) - P( B Ç C ) - P(C Ç A) + P( A Ç B Ç C )

A – (AÇB) A ÇB B – (AÇB)

A B

FIGURE 7.1 7.2. ■

Note that a probability function P on Ã(S), where S is given to be finite, is completely determined by P(s), s ÎS. If
P(s) is a non-negative real number for each s in a finite set S such that

å P ( s) = 1
sÎS

then the function P : Ã(S) ® , defined by

P( A) = å P( s)
sÎA

for any A Í S, is a probability function.

498 Chapter 7 Probability

In Table 7.1 we give set theoretic descriptions of various events, which will be useful in solving problems on prob-
ability later.

Table 7.1 Set theoretic descriptions of various events

S. No. Event Set theoretic description
1. Events A or B to occur AÈB
2. Events A and B to occur AÇB
3. A occurs and B does not occur A - B or A Ç Bc or A Ç B
4. Neither A nor B occurs Ac Ç Bc or A Ç B
5. Exactly one of the events A and B ( A Ç B) È ( A Ç B) or ( A Ç Bc ) È ( Ac Ç B)
occurs or ( A È B ) - ( A Ç B)
6. Not more than one of the events A or (A Ç Bc) È(Ac Ç B ) È (Ac Ç Bc) or
B occurs ( A Ç B) È ( A Ç B) È ( A È B)
7. The event B occurs whenever A occurs AÍB

Example 7.9

A pack of cards means a pack containing 52 cards, out Therefore

of which 26 are with red figures and another 26 are
4 13 1
with black figures. These 52 cards are divided into 4 P(E1 ) = , P(E2 ) = and P(E1 Ç E2 ) =
sets, namely Hearts (in red colour), Diamonds (in red 52 52 52
colour), Spades (in black) and Clubs (in black). Each set
consists of 13 cards labelled as
A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K P(E1 È E2 ) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 ) - P(E1 Ç E2 )
where A is Ace, J is Jack, Q is Queen, K is King. Find 4 13 1
= + -
the probability of drawing an ace or a spade from a well- 52 52 52
shuffled pack of 52 cards. 16 4
= =
52 13
Solution: Let E1 and E2 be the events of drawing an
ace and drawing a spade, respectively. Then we have to Thus 4/13 is the probability of drawing an ace or a spade
find P(E1 È E2). Note that E1 and E2 are not mutually from the pack.
exclusive, since there is a spade in aces. In fact, E1 Ç E2
has exactly one member. Note that
n(E1 ) = 4, n(E2 ) = 13 or n(E1 Ç E1 ) = 1

Example 7.10

A, B and C are three newspapers from a city. 25% of 4

and P( A Ç B Ç C ) =
the population reads A, 20% reads B, 15% reads C, 100
16% reads both A and B, 10% reads both B and C, 8%
reads both A and C and 4% reads all the three. Find the We have to find P(A È B È C). We can use the formula
percentage of the population who read atleast one of A, P(A È B È C ) = P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) - P( A Ç B)
B and C.
- P( B Ç C ) - P(C Ç A) + P( A Ç B Ç C )
Solution: We are given that 1
= (25 + 20 + 15 - 16 - 10 - 8 + 4)
25 20 15 100
P( A) = , P( B) = , P(C ) =
100 100 100 30
=
16 10 8 100
P( A Ç B) = , P( B Ç C ) = , P(C Ç A) =
100 100 100 Thus 30% of the people read atleast one of the newspapers.
 7.4 Independent and Dependent Events 499

Example 7.11

If two numbers are selected randomly from 30 consecu- are 15C2 + 15C2 such ways. Therefore the probability
tive natural numbers, find the probability that the sum of that the sum of the two numbers selected is even is
the two numbers is 15
C2 + 15C2 15 ´ 14 14
(a) even. 30
= =
C2 435 29
(b) odd.
The event “a + b is odd” is complementary to the
Solution: Two numbers can be selected from 30 in event “a + b is even” and therefore, the probability
30
C2 = 435 ways. Since the given 30 numbers are consecu- that the sum of the two numbers selected odd is
tive, there are 15 even and 15 odd numbers among them.
14 15
(a) For a + b to be even, it is necessary and sufficient 1- =
that either both a and b are even or both odd. There 29 29

7.4 | Independent and Dependent Events

An icecream vendor sells more icecreams during a sunny day than other days. The probability of getting more profit
depends on the weather conditions that the day is sunny and hot. Situations like these lead to the following, in which
we assume that there is a probability function P on the set of events of a random experiment.

DEFINITION 7.10 Let x be a random experiment and A and B be two events of x. Then the event “occurrence
of B after the occurrence of A” is called a conditional eventt and is denoted by B/A
/ . Similarly,
the event “occurrence of A after the occurrence of B” is denoted by A/B.

DEFINITION 7.11 Let A and B be two events of a random experiment x. The conditional probability of occur-
rence of A after the occurrence of B is defined by
P( A Ç B)
P( B)
where P(B) > 0 and is denoted by P(A/B). That is,
P( A Ç B)
P( A / B) = , when P( B) > 0
P( B)

P( B Ç A)
P( B / A) = , when P( A) > 0
P( A)

QUICK LOOK 1

Number of favourable cases to A among B

P ( A / B) =
Number of favourable caases to B

Example 7.12

A pair of fair dice is thrown. Find the probability that from 1 to 6. Let A be the event “2 appears on either of
either of the dice shows 2 if the sum is 6. the dice” and B be the event “sum is 6”. We want to find
P(A/B). Note that
Solution: The sample space of the experiment
“throwing a pair of fair dice” consists of 36(= 6 ´ 6) A = {(2, b)| 1 £ b £ 6} È {(a, 2)| 1 £ a £ 6}
ordered pairs (a, b), where a and b can be any integers and B = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}
500 Chapter 7 Probability

Also, So
A Ç B = {(2, 4), (4, 2)} P( A Ç B) 2 / 36 2
P( A / B) = = =
Therefore P( B) 5 / 36 5

5 2
P( B) = and P( A Ç B) =
36 36

Example 7.13

In a class, 30% of the students failed in Physics, 25% Also,

failed in Mathematics and 15% failed in both Physics
15
and Mathematics. If a student is selected at random P( A Ç B) =
failed in Mathematics, find the probability that he failed 100
in Physics also. Therefore
Solution: Let A be the event “failed in Physics” and B P( A Ç B) 15 / 100 15 3
P( A / B) = = = =
be the event “failed in Mathematics”. We want to find P( B) 25 / 100 25 5
P(A/B). It is given that
30 25
P( A) = and P( B) =
100 100

T H E O R E M 7.3 Let A and B be two events of a random experiment such that P(A) > 0 and P(B) > 0. Then
(M U L T I P L I C A T I O N
P( A Ç B) = P( A)P( B / A) = P( B)P( A / B)
THEOREM ON
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY)
PROOF This is an immediate consequence of the definition of the conditional probabilities P(A/B) and
/ ). This can be extended to any finite number of events E1, E2, …, En, by using induction
P(B/A
on n. ■

C O R O L L A R Y 7.1 Let E1, E2, …, En be n events of a random experiment such that

n-1
P æ Ç Ei ö > 0
è i =1 ø

Then

æ n-1
ö
P ( E1 Ç E2 Ç  Ç En ) = P(E1 )P ( E2 / E1 ) P ( E3 /(E1 Ç E2 ))  P ç En / æ Ç Ei ö ÷
è è i =1 ø ø

Example 7.14

A bag contains 20 identical balls of which 8 are black and then the probability that the third ball drawn is blue is 10/18.
12 are blue. Three balls are taken out at random from Therefore, by Corollary 7.1, the required probability is
the bag one after the other without replacement. Find
12 11 10 11
the probability that all the three balls drawn are blue. × × =
20 19 18 57
Solution: The probability that the first ball drawn is blue Note: If the drawn ball is replaced every time, then the
is 12/20, since there are 12 blue balls among 20 balls in the probability is
bag. If the first ball is blue, then the probability that the
3 3
second ball drawn is blue is 11/19, since 11 of the remaining æ 12 ö æ 3 ö
19 are blue. Similarly, if the first two balls drawn are blue, çè ÷ø = çè ÷ø
20 5
 7.4 Independent and Dependent Events 501

Example 7.15

A jar contains 10 white balls and 6 blue balls, all are of since 10 out of 10 + 6 balls are white. But, after one ball
equal size. Two balls are drawn without replacement. is chosen, there remain 9 white balls and 6 blue balls.
Find the probability that the second ball is white if it is Therefore the required probability is
known that the first is white.
P(E1 Ç E2 )
P(E2 / E1 ) =
Solution: Let E1 be the event “the first ball drawn is P(E1 )
white” and E2 be the event “the second ball drawn is 10 9
white again. Then, .
9 3
= 16 15 = =
10 10 / 16 15 5
P(E1 ) =
16

T H E O R E M 7.4 Let S be the sample space of a random experiment x and P be a probability function on Ã(S), the
set of all events of x. Let A ÎÃ(S) such that P(A) > 0. Define PA : Ã(S) ®  by
PA (E) = P(E / A)
for any E ÎÃ(S). Then PA is also a probability function.
PROOF Recall that
P(E Ç A)
PA (E) = P(E / A) =
P( A)
Since P(A) > 0 and P(E Ç A) ³ 0, PA(E) ³ 0 for all E ÎÃ(S). Also,
P(S Ç A) P( A)
PA (S) = = =1
P( A) P( A)
since A Í S. Further, let E1 and E2 be two mutually exclusive events (i.e., E1 and E2 Í S and
E1 Ç E2 = f). Then,
P[(E1 È E2 ) Ç A]
PA (E1 È E2 ) =
P( A)
P[(E1 Ç A) È (E2 Ç A)]
=
P( A)
P(E1 Ç A) + P(E2 Ç A)
= (since E1 Ç A Ç E2 Ç A = f )
P( A)
= PA (E1 ) + PA (E2 )

Thus, PA is a probability function on Ã(S). ■

DEFINITION 7.12 Let x be a random experiment and S its sample space. Let P be a probability function on
Ã(S). Two events A and B are said to be independent of each otherr if the occurrence of one
of them does not influence the occurrence of the other. That is, B is independent of A if
P( B) = P( B / A)
If A and B are not independent, then we say that they are dependent.

T H E O R E M 7.5 The following are equivalent to each other for any two events A and B of a random experiment.
1. A and B are independent of each other.
2. P(B) = P(B/A
/ )
502 Chapter 7 Probability

3. P(A) = P(A/B)
4. P(A Ç B) = P(A) P(B)
PROOF (1) Û (2) follows from Definition 7.12.
(2) Û (3) Û (4) follow from the multiplication theorem (Theorem 7.3), where we have
P( A Ç B) = P( A)P( B / A) = P( B)P( A / B) ■

Example 7.16

Let A and B be independent events with P(A) = 0.6 and (2) P(A/B) is given by
P(B) = 0.2. Find the following.
P( A Ç B) 0.12 3
(1) P(A Ç B) P( A / B) = = =
P( B) 0.2 5
(2) P(A/B)
P(B/A
/ ) is given by
(3) P(B/A
/ )
(4) P(A È B) P( A Ç B) 0.12 1
P( B / A) = = =
P( A) 0.6 5
Solution: From Theorem 7.5, we have
P(A È B) is given by
(1) P(A Ç B) is given by
P( A È B) = P( A) + P( B) - P( A Ç B)
3
P( A Ç B) = P( A)P( B) = (0.6)(0.2) = 0.12 = 17
25 = 0.6 + 0.2 - 0.12 = 0.68 =
25

Example 7.17

A bag contains 20 balls out of which 10 balls are white Similarly

and others are black. Two balls are drawn from the
1
bag at random with replacement. Let A be the event P( B) =
“first ball drawn is white” and B be the event “second 2
ball drawn is white”. Verify whether A and B are Further, there are 10 ´ 10 ways to draw the balls so that
independent. both the first and the second balls are white. Hence

Solution: It is given that the first ball drawn is 10 ´ 10 1

P( A Ç B) = =
replaced before drawing the second ball. Therefore, 20 ´ 20 4
there are 20 ´ 20 ways to draw the two balls, of which Now,
10 ´ 20 have the property that the first ball is white.
Therefore, 1 1 1
P( A Ç B) = = × = P( A)P( B)
4 2 2
10 ´ 20 1
P( A) = =
20 ´ 20 2 Therefore, by Theorem 7.5, A and B are independent of
each other.

Example 7.18

A bag B1 contains 3 white balls and 4 black balls and Let A be the event that the ball chosen is white. Then,
another bag B2 contains 2 black balls and 4 white balls.
3 4 2
A bag is drawn at random and a ball is drawn at random P( A / E1 ) = and P( A / E2 ) = =
from it. Find the probability that the ball drawn is white. 7 6 3
Since E1 and E2 are exhaustive and mutually exclusive,
Solution: Let E1 and E2 be the events of choosing B1 it follows that
and B2, respectively. Then,
A = ( A Ç E1 ) È ( A Ç E2 )
1
P(E1 ) = = P(E2 ) and ( A Ç E1 ) Ç ( A Ç E2 ) = f
2
 7.4 Independent and Dependent Events 503

Therefore 1 3 1 2
= × + ×
2 7 2 3
P( A) = P( A Ç E1 ) + P( A Ç E2 )
3 1 23
= P(E1 )P( A / E1 ) + P(E2 )P( A / E2 ) = + =
14 3 42

T H E O R E M 7.6 Let E1, E2, E3, …, En be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events with non-zero probabilities of
(T O T A L a random experiment x. Then for any event A connected with x,
PROBABILITY) n
P( A) = å P(Ei )P( A / Ei )
i =1

PROOF We have
A= AÇS
= A Ç (E1 È E2 È  È En )
= ( A Ç E1 ) È ( A Ç E2 ) È  È ( A Ç En )

n n
P( A) = å P( A Ç Ei ) = å P(Ei )P( A / Ei )
i =1 i =1 ■

T H E O R E M 7.7 Let E1, E2, …, En be exhaustive and mutually exclusive events of a random experiment x and S be
(B A Y E S ’ the sample space of x with a probability function P on Ã(S) such that P(Ei) > 0 for all 1 £ i £ n.
THEOREM) Then for any event A of the random experiment x,
P ( Ej ) P ( A / Ej )
P(Ej / A) = n

å P (E )P ( A / E )
i =1
i i

£ j £ n.
PROOF By hypothesis E1, E2, …, En are exhaustive and mutually exclusive and hence
E1 È E2 È  En = S
and Ei Ç Ej = f for i¹j
Also, it is given that P(Ei) > 0 for all 1 £ i £ n. For any event A (i.e., A Í S), we have

A = A Ç S = A Ç æ È Ei ö = È( A Ç Ei )
n n

è i =1 ø i =1

A Ç Ei Ç A Ç Ej = A Ç Ei Ç Ej = f for i ¹ j we have
n
P( A) = å P( A Ç Ei )
i =1
n
= å P(Ei )P( A / Ei ) (by Theorem 7.3)
i =1

Thus, by Theorem 7.3 again, for any 1 £ i £ n, we have

P(Ej Ç A)
P(Ej / A) =
P( A)
P(Ej Ç A)
= n

å P(E )P( A / E )
i =1
i i
■
504 Chapter 7 Probability

Example 7.19

Three bags, B1, B2 and B3 contain balls as given in Table 7.2. Having choosen the bag Bi, the probability of choosing a
red ball is P(R/Ei) and is given by
Table 7.2 Example 7.19
2 4 2
Red White Black P(R / E1 ) = , P(R / E2 ) = and P(R / E3 ) =
5 9 9
B1 2 2 1 We want to find the probability P(E2/R). By Bayes’
B2 4 3 2 theorem, we get that
B3 2 4 3
P(E2 )P(R /E2 )
P(E2 /R) =
P(E1)P(R / E1) + P(E2 )P(R /E2 ) + P(E3 )P(R /E3)
A die is thrown. B1 is chosen if either 1 or 2 turns up,
B2 is chosen if either 3 or 4 turns up and B3 is chosen if 1 4
´
either 4 or 5 turns up. Having chosen a bag in this way, a = 3 9
ball is chosen at random from this bag. If the ball chosen æ 1 2ö æ 1 4ö æ 1 2ö
çè ´ ÷ø +ç ´ ÷ +ç ´
è 3 9ø è 3 ÷
is of red colour, find the probability that it comes from 3 5 9ø
bag B2?
4
Solution: Let Ei be the event of choosing the bag Bi, for = 27
i = 1, 2, 3. Let R be the event of choosing a red ball. Then æ 18 + 20 + 10 ö
çè 3 ´ 5 ´ 9 ÷ø
1
P(Ei ) = for i = 1, 2, 3
3 4 3´5´9 5
= ´ =
27 48 12

7.5 | Random Variables and Probability Distributions

In this section we define the concepts of random variables and probability distributions and discuss certain important
properties of these. First we define a random variable which quantifies the events of a sample space of a random
experiment.

DEFINITION 7.13 Let S be the sample space of a random experiment. Then any real-valued function defined on
S is called a random variable on S. That is, a random variable of S is simply a function J :S ® R.

Examples

(1) Let S be the sample space of the experiment (3) Let S be the sample space of the experiment “tossing
That is, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Define
“rolling a fair die”. T three fair coins simultamously”.
J :S ®  by Then

ïì1 if s is even S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
J( s) = í
îï0 if s is odd Define J : S ® R by
That is, J (1) = J (3) = J (5) = 0 and J (2) = J (4) =
T J (s) = The number of heads in s
J (6) = 1. Then J is a random variable on S.
For example, J (HHH) =3, J (HHT) = 2, J (THT) = 1,
(2) Let S be the sample space of the experiment “tossing J (TTT) = 0. Then J is a random variable on S.
a fair coin”. That is, S = {H, T
T}, where H = Head and
T = Tail. Define J : S ® R by
J ( H ) = 1 and J (T ) = 0
Then J is a random variable on S.

For any random experiment x and its sample space S, we prove in the following that any probability function on
Ã(S) and a random variable on S give rise to a probability function on P().
 7.5 Random Variables and Probability Distributions 505

T H E O R E M 7.8 Let S be the sample space of a random experiment. Let P : Ã(S) ®  be a probability function
and J : S ®  be a random variable. Define P¢ : Ã() ®  by
P¢(T) J-1(T))
T = P(J T for any T Í ,
where J-1(T)
T = {s ÎS | J (s) ÎT}.
T Then P¢ is a probability function on Ã() and is called the prob-
ability function induced by P and J.
PROOF Since P(E) ³ 0 for all E Í S, we have

P ¢(T ) = P(J -1 (T )) ³ 0 for all T Í R

since J-1(T)
T Í S. Also,

P ¢(R) = P(J -1 ()) = P(S) = 1

If A and B Í R such that A Ç B = f, then

J -1 ( A) Ç J -1 ( B) = J -1 ( A Ç B) = J -1 (f ) = f
and J -1 ( A È B) = J -1 ( A) È J -1 ( B)
and therefore

P ¢( A È B) = P[J -1 ( A È B)]
= P[J -1 ( A) È J -1 ( B)]
= P[J -1 ( A)] + P[J -1 ( B)]
= P ¢( A) + P ¢( B)
Thus P¢ is a probability function on Ã(). ■

Example

Let S be the sample space of the experiment “rolling a Also, since

fair die” and P be the usual probability function on Ã(S)
1 1 1 1
determined by P({1, 3, 5}) = + + =
6 6 6 2
1
P ( s) = for any s Î S 1 1 1 1
6 and P({2, 4, 6}) = + + =
6 6 6 2
Note that S is the 6-element set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
we have
Let J :S ®  be the random variable given by J (1) =
J (3) = J (5) = 0 and J (2) = J (4) = J (6) = 1. Then, for ì0 if 0, 1 ÏT
any T Í R, ï
ï1
P ¢(T ) = P(J -1 (T )) = í if 0, 1 ÎT but not both
J -1 (0) = {1, 3, 5}
ï2
J -1 (1) = {2, 4, 6} ï1 if 0, 1 ÎT
î
ìf if 0 ÏT and 1 ÏT
ï
-1 ï{1, 3, 5} if 0 ÎT and 1 ÏT
J (T ) = í
ï{2, 4, 6} if 0 ÏT and 1 ÎT
ï
îS if 0 ÎT and 1 ÎT

It is a convention to use the letter X to denote a random variable and as such a random variable is simply a func-
tion X from the sample space S into the real number system. Here afterwards, we use X to denote a random variable.
506 Chapter 7 Probability

DEFINITION 7.14 Let S be the sample space of a random experiment and X : S ®  be a random variable.
Then, to each real number r, the event

X -1 ((-¥, r ]) = {s Î S | X ( s) £ r}

is denoted by(X £ r). That is, for each r Î,

( X £ r ) = { s Î S | X ( s) £ r }

DEFINITION 7.15 X, the function F :  ® , defined by

For any random variable X
F r) = P((X £ r))
F( for any r Î,
is called the probability distribution function of X.
X

T H E O R E M 7.9 Let X be a random variable and F the probability distribution of X

X. Then the following hold.
1. 0 £ F(
F r) £ 1 for all r Î
2. r £ s Þ F(
F r) £ F(
F s) for any r and s Î
3. lim F (r ) = 1 and lim F (r ) = 0
r ®¥ r ®-¥

F (r + 0) = lim F ( s) = F (r )
s® r
s >r

PROOF For any real number, we have

F (r ) = P((X £ r ))
where
( X £ r ) = { s Î S | X ( s) £ r }
Since P is a probability function, we have 0 £ P(E) £ 1 for all E Í S and therefore
0 £ F (r ) £ 1
Also, if r and s Î, then
r £ s Þ (-¥, r ] Í (-¥, s]
Þ X -1 ((-¥, r ]) Í X -1 ((-¥, s])
Þ ( X £ r ) Í ( X £ s)
Þ P(( X £ r )) £ P(( X £ s))
Þ F (r ) £ F ( s)
The remaining results follow from the fact that F is an increasing function and
lub F (r ) = 1, glb F (r ) = 0
r ÎR r ÎR

and, for any r ÎR,

(-¥, r ] = Ç (-¥, s] ■
r < sÎR

DEFINITION 7.16 A random variable whose range is atmost countable (i.e., finite or countably infinite) is
called a discrete random variable. A random variable which is not discrete is called a contin-
uous random variable.

The random variables given in all the above examples are discrete. Though there are certain continuous random
variables, we confine our discussion to the discrete random variables only. In the following we introduce the notions
of mean, variance, standard deviation and probability distribution of discrete random variables.
 7.5 Random Variables and Probability Distributions 507

DEFINITION 7.17 Let X be a discrete random variable on the sample space S of a random experiment and let
Z+,
the range of X be {x1, x2, …, xn, …}. Let P be a probability function on Ã(S). For each n ÎZ
let P(X = xn) be defined by
P( X = xn ) = P( X -1 {xn })

1. If å x P( X = x ) is finite, then it is called the mean of X and is denoted by m

n
n n X, or simply
m when there is no ambiguity about X
X. That is,

m = å xn P( X = xn )
n

2. If å ( xn - m )2 P( X = xn ) is finite, then it is called the variance of X and is denoted by uX or

n
simply u.
3. If u is the variance of X
X, then u is called the standard deviation of X and is denoted by
sX, or simply ss. Therefore u = s or s 2 = u.
4. The system of numbers
X : x1 x2 x3  xn 
P( X = xi ): p1 p2 p3  pn 
probability distribution of X.
X
X-1{xi}).)
(Note that pi = P(X = xi) = P(X

QUICK LOOK 2

From the points given in Definition 7.17, we have = å xn2 pn - 2 m 2 + m 2 (since å xn pn = m and å pn = 1)
n n n
s 2 = å ( xn - m )2 pn
n = å x pn - m
2
n
2

n
= å xn2 pn - 2 m å xn pn + m 2 å pn
n n n Therefore

s 2 + m 2 = å xn2 pn
n

Example 7.20

The probability distribution of a random variable X is = 0.25 + 1.00 + 2.25 + 4 + 6.25 + 9 + 12.25
given in Table 7.3.
= 35
Table 7.3 Example 7.20 The variance is given by
X=x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7

P(X = x) 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.0 1.25 1.50 1.75 u = å ( xr - m )2 P( X = xr )

r =1

Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of X.

X = (-34)2(0.25) + (-33)2(0.5) + (-32)2 (0.75)) + (-31)2(1.00)
+ (-30)2(1.25) + (-29)2(1.5) + (-28)2(1.75)
Solution: The mean is given by
= 289 + 544.5 + 768 + 961 + 1125 + 1261.5 + 1372
7
m = å xr P( X = xr ) = 6321
r =1
The standard deviation is
= 1 ´ (0.25) + 2(0.50) + 3(0.75) + 4(1.0)
+ 5(1.25) + 6(1.50) + 7(1.75) s = u = 6321 = 7 129
508 Chapter 7 Probability

Example 7.21

Let X be a discrete random variable whose probability Therefore

distribution is given by 5
K+1
(K + 1)a aå K
=1
P( x = K ) = K =0 2
2K
æ 2 3 4 5 6ö
for K = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. Find the value of a. aç1 + + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 ÷ = 1
è 2 2 2 2 2 ø
Solution: Since æ 32 + 32 + 24 + 16 + 10 + 6 ö
aç
è ÷ø = 1
5 32
å P( x = K ) = 1
K =0 4
a=
15
we have
5
(K + 1)a
å
K =0 2K
=1

7.6 | Theoretical Discrete Distribution

In this section, we discuss certain probability distributions in which the variables are distributed according to some
definite probability law that can be expressed mathematically. In particular, binomial distributions and Poisson distri-
butions are of special importance.
A random variable X which takes just two values 0 and 1 with the probabilities p and q, respectively, is of partic-
ular interest. In this case, note that
P( X = 0) = p, P( X = 1) = q and p+q=1
H =p
Quite often we come across such random variables. For example, in coin tossing experiment, we can define P(H)
T = 1 - p, for some 0 < p < 1 and the random variable X can be defined by X(
and P(T) H = 1 and X(
X H) T = 0, so that
X T)
P( X = 1) = p and P( X = 0) = 1 - p
Each repetion of such an experiment is called a trial.

7.6.1 Binomial Distribution

Let E and Ec be two complementary events in a random experiment with probabilities p and q, respectively. Let us call
the occurrence of the event E as a success and the occurrence of the event Ec as a failure in a trial. If the experiment is
repeated n times and Ek is the event having k successes in these trials, then one of these cases is “E E occurs in the first
k trials, Ec occures in the remaining n - k trials”. The required probability for such an event is pk qn-k.
However the number of such cases is
n!
n
Ck =
(n - k )! k !
Thus
P(Ek ) = n Ck pk qn - k
Let X denote the number of successes in these n trials. Then X is a random variable with range {0, 1, 2, …, n}. Further
P( X = k ) = n Ck pk qn - k = n Ck pk (1 - p)n - k (since p + q = 1)
X is summarized in Table 7.4. This distribution shown in Table 7.4 is called a binomial distribution.
Here n and p are called the parameters of X.
X
 7.6 Theoretical Discrete Distribution 509

Table 7.4 Binomial distribution

X=k 0 1 2 … r … n
P(X = k) n
C0 p0qn-0 n
C1 p1qn-1 n
C2 p2qn-2 … n
Cr prqn-r … n
Cn pnq0

DEFINITION 7.18 A random variable X is said to follow binomial distribution, or simply, it is a binomial variate
with parameters n and p if
P(X = k) = nCk pkqn-k for k = 0, 1, 2, …, n
and this is described by writing X ~ B(n, p).

Note that P(X = k) are nothing but the terms of the binomial expansion of (p( + q)n and this justifies the name ‘bino-
mial distribution”. Also, recall that q = 1 - p.
The following can be easily proved by using the results in Chapter 7, Binomial Theorem, Vol. 1.

T H E O R E M 7.10 If X ~ B (n, p), then the mean m and the variance s 2 of X are equal to np and npq, respectively.

Notice that a binomial distribution takes place under the following experimental conditions.
1. Each trial results in two mutually exclusive outcomes, termed as success and failure.
2. The number n of trials is finite.
3. The trials are independent of each other.
4. The probability p of success is constant for each trial.

7.6.2 Poisson Distribution

Another important theoretical discrete distribution is the Poisson distribution which is indeed a limiting case of the
binomial distribution. A random variable X is said to follow Poisson distribution with parameter l and X is called a
Poisson variate if

l k -l
P( X = k ) = e for k = 0, 1, 2, …
k!
l > 0 is a constant. This is called the Poisson law. Table 7.5 shows the Poisson distribution.

Table 7.5 Poisson distribution

X=k 0 1 2 3 … k …
l -l l -l 2
l -l
3
… l -l
k
…
P(X = k) e-l e e e e
1! 2! 3! k!

The following is an important result and we skip the proof of this.

T H E O R E M 7.11 Let X be a Poisson random variate with parameter l. Then the mean and variance of X are both
equal to l.

Note that the Poisson distribution can be used under the following experimental conditions.
1. Each trial results in two mutually exclusive outcomes, termed as success and failure.
2. The number n of trials is sufficiently large.
3. The probability p of success is very small.
4. The trials are independent of each other.
510 Chapter 7 Probability

QUICK LOOK 3

The Poisson distribution can be used, for instance, in 3. The number of vehicles passing a given spot per
problems like the following: minute during the peak hours of a day in a given
1. The number of defective items in a packing city.
2. The number of deaths from non-epidemic diseases
such as heart attack or cancer or snake bites

Example 7.22

Eight coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability r = 0, 1, 2, …, 8. Therefore, the probability of getting
of getting atleast six Heads, using the binomial distribution. atleast 6 heads is

Solution: Let P( X ³ 6) = P( X = 6) + P( X = 7) + P( X = 8)
8 8 8
1 æ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö
p = the probability of getting a head = = 8C6 ç ÷ + 8C7 ç ÷ + 8C8 ç ÷
2 è 2ø è 2ø è 2ø
1 7 1 1 37
and q = the probability of getting a tail = = + + =
2 64 32 256 256
The probability of getting r heads in a random toss is
r 8-r 8
æ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö
P ( X = r ) = 8 Cr ç ÷ ç ÷ = 8 Cr ç ÷
è 2ø è 2ø è 2ø

Example 7.23

In a book of 750 pages, there are 500 typographical The probability of r errors per page is
errors. Assuming Poisson law for the number of errors r
per page, find the probability that a random sample of l r - l æ 2 ö 1 -2 / 3
P( X = r ) = e =ç ÷ e
5 pages will contain no error. r! è 3ø r!

Therefore
Solution: The average member of errors per page in
the book is P( X = 0) = e-2 / 3
500 2 The required probability that a random sample of
l= =
750 3 5 pages will contain no error is
( P( X = 0))5 = (e-2 / 3 )5 = e-10 / 3

Example 7.24

A Poisson variate X satisfies P(X = 1) = P(X = 2). Find (2 l - l 2 )e- l = 0

P(X = 6).
l (2 - l ) = 0
Solution: Recall that Since l > 0, we should have l = 2. Therefore
l -lr
l 6 - l 64 -2 æ 4 ö -2
P( X = r ) = e ,l >0 P( X = 6) = e = e =ç ÷e
r! 6! 720 è 45 ø
r = 0, 1, 2, … . It is given that P(X = 1) = P(X = 2).
Therefore

l -l l2 -l
e = e
1! 2!
 Worked-Out Problems 511

WORKED-OUT PROBLEMS
Single Correct Choice Type Questions
1. A, B and C are three athletes running in a race. If Solution:
the probability of A winning is twice as likely to win real number and sum of all the probabilities is equal to 1,
as probability of B and that of B is as likely to win as the correct answer is (A).
of C, then the probability of A’s win is Answer: (A)
1 2 3 4
(A) (B) (C) (D)
7 7 7 7 4. A die is so weighed such that the probability of a
number appearing when tossed is proportional to the
( ) = 2P(B) and P(B) = 2P(C).
Solution: By hypothesis P(A number on the face. Then, the probability of a prime
Since numbered face to appear is
P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) = 1 4 5 10 11
(A) (B) (C) (D)
7 21 21 21
we have
Solution: Let p be the constant of proportionality so
4 P(C ) + 2 P(C ) + P(C ) = 1
that
Therefore P(K ) = Kp for K = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
1
7 P(C ) = 1 or P(C ) = Sum of the probabilities = 1. This implies
7
1
So 21 p = 1 Þ p =
21
4
P( A) = 4 P(C ) = Let E be the event of a prime number face. That is
7 E = {2, 3, 5}. Then
Answer: (D)
10
P(E ) = 2 p + 3 p + 5 p =
2. In Problem (1), the probability that one of B or C will 21
win is Answer: (C)
2 3 4 5
(A) (B) (C) (D) 5. A and B are two events of a random experiment. If
7 7 7 7
P( A È B) = 7 / 8, P( A Ç B) = 1/ 4 and P( A) = 5 / 8, then
Solution: The events that either of B or C will win are P( A Ç B) is equal to
mutually exclusive events so that P(B Ç C) = 0. Hence 1 1 1 3
(A) (B) (C) (D)
P( B È C ) = P( B) + P(C ) 8 4 3 8
2 1 3 Solution: We have
= + =
7 7 7
P( A Ç B) = P( A - B) = P( A) - P( A Ç B)
Answer: (B)
æ 5ö 1
= ç1 - ÷ -
3. Let S = {x1, x2, x3, x4} be a four-element sample space. è 8ø 4
Which of the following functions defines a probability
3 1 1
function on S? = - =
8 4 8
1 1 1 1
(A) P( x1 ) = , P( x2 ) = , P( x3 ) = , P( x4 ) =
4 8 2 8 Answer: (A)
1 1 1 1
(B) P( x1 ) = , P( x2 ) = , P( x3 ) = , P( x4 ) = 6. Two dice of different colours are thrown at a time.
3 5 4 2
The probability that the sum of the faces appeared is
1 1 1 1 either 7 or 11 is
P( x1 ) = , P( x2 ) = - , P( x3 ) = , P( x4 ) =
2 3 4 2 7 4 2 5
1 1 2 (A) (B) (C) (D)
P( x1 ) = 0, P( x2 ) = , P( x3 ) = , P( x4 ) = 36 9 3 9
2 3 3
512 Chapter 7 Probability

Solution: The total number of possible outcomes = Therefore

6 ´ 6 = 36. Let A = Event of the sum is 7 and B = event of
240 16
the sum is 11. Therefore P(E ) = =
495 33
A = {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (6, 1), (5, 2), (4, 3)} Answer: (C)
B = {(5, 6), (6, 5)}
9. There are three boxes B1, B2 and B3. B1 contains
It is observed that A Ç B = f. Hence 1 white and 2 black balls. B2 contains 3 white, 1 black
ball and B3 contain 2 white and 3 black balls. One ball
6 2 4
P( A È B) = P( A) + P( B) = + = is taken from each box. Among the balls drawn, the
36 36 9 probability that there are two black and 1 white ball is
Answer: (B) 7 23 37 5
(A) (B) (C) (D)
12 60 60 12
7. From a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards, four cards
are selected at random. The probability of drawing Solution: Let E be the event that the draw contains
exactly 2 spades and exactly 2 aces is 2 black and one white ball. Let wi drawing white ball
1494 1594 from Bi and bj be the event of drawing a black ball from
(A) (B) the box Bj (i = 1, 2, 3, and j = 1, 2, 3). Therefore
270725 270725

(C)
1296
(D)
1396 E = (b1 Ç b2 Ç w3 ) È (b1 Ç w2 Ç b3 ) È (w1 Ç b2 Ç b3 )
270725 270725
Each of the events in the union is mutually exclusive and
Solution: Total number of outcomes = 52C4 = 270725 independent. Hence
E = Event of exactly two spade cards and exists two aces.
A = Event of 1 spade ace, 1 non-spade ace and 1 spade P(E) = P(b1 Ç b2 Ç w3 ) + P(b1 Ç w2 Ç b3 )
card and 1 non-spade card + P(w1 Ç b2 Ç b3 )
B = Event of 2 non-spade aces and 2 spade cards.
= P(b1 )P(b2 )P(w3 ) + P(b1 )P(w2 )P(b3 )
1(3C1 )(12C1 )(36C1 ) 3 ´ 12 ´ 36 1296
P( A) = 52
= = + P(w1 )P(b2 )P(b3 )
C4 270725 270725
2 1 2 2 3 3 1 1 3
3
C2 ´ 12C2 3 ´ 66 198 = × × + × × + × ×
P( B) = 52
= = 3 4 5 3 4 5 3 4 5
C4 270725 270725
25 5
= =
Now E = A È B and A Ç B = f. This implies 60 12
P(E) = P( A È B) Answer: (D)

1494 10. A class contains 20 boys and 20 girls of which half the
= P( A) + P( B) =
270725 boys and half the girls have cat eyes. If one student
Answer: (A) is selected from the class, the probability that either
the student is a boy or has cat eyes is
8. 1 3 3 2
(A) (B) (C) (D)
husband) are standing in a room. Four people are 2 4 8 3
chosen at random. The probability that the selection
contains exactly one couple is Solution: Let A be the event of a boy and B the event
of having cat eyes. So
1 1 16 17
(A) (B) (C) (D)
11 33 33 33 20 1
P( A) = =
40 2
Solution: From 12 people, 4 can be selected in
C4 = 495 ways.
12
and P( B) =
20 1
=
E = Event of the selection contains exactly one couple. 40 2
Therefore the selection must contain one couple and the
rest 2 must be non-couple. This can be done in
10 1
6
C1 ´ 2(5C1 ´ 4 C1 ) = 6 ´ 40 = 240 ways P( A Ç B) = =
40 4
 Worked-Out Problems 513

Therefore 13. A positive integer is selected at random from the

first 200 natural numbers. The probability that it is
P( A È B) = P( A) + P( B) divisible by 4 or 5 is
- P( A Ç B) (see Theorem 7.2) 1 1 3 3
(A) (B) (C) (D)
1 1 1 3 3 5 5 10
= + - =
2 2 4 4 Solution: Any integer divisible by 4 or 5 must be divis-
Answer: (B) ible by 20.
Number of multiples of 4 lying between 1 and 200
11. If a positive divisor of 1049 is selected at random, (including 200) is 50.
then the probability that it is an integer multiple of Number of multiples of 5 is 20.
1038 is Number of multiples of 20 is 10.
9 18 36 9 Therefore required probability is
(A) (B) (C) (D)
625 625 625 2500 50 + 20 - 10 60 3
= =
Solution: 10 = 2 × 5 Þ there are 50 ´ 50 = 2500 posi-
49 49 49 200 200 10
tive divisions of 1049. Now 1038 = 238 × 538 Þ any integer Answer: (D)
multiple of 1038 must be of the form 2a × 5b where 38 £ a,
b £ 49. That is, a and b will have 12 choices each. Hence 14. Out of 5 men and 6 women a committee of 5 is to be
required probability is formed. If the selection is at random, the probability
that the committee consists of at least 3 women is
12 ´ 12 36
= 141 143 131 1
2500 625 (A) (B) (C) (D)
462 462 462 4
Answer: (C)
Solution: Let
12. Let A and B be two events such that P(A) = 0.3, E: Event that committee consists at least 3 women.
P(B) = 0.6 and P(B/A
/ ) = 0.5. Then P( A / B) equals The favourable cases to E are:

3 5 9 1
(A) (B) (C) (D) Women Men No. of selections
4 8 40 4
3 2 6
C3 ´ 5C2
Solution: We have by Theorem 7.3
4 1 6
C4 ´ 5C1
P( A Ç B) = P( A)P ( B / A) = (0.3)(0.5) = 0.15
5 0 6
C5 ´ 5C0
Now
Therefore
P( A È B) = P( A) + P( B) - P( A Ç B)
= 0.3 + 0.6 - 0.15
6
C5 ´ 5C2 + 6C4 ´ 5C1 + 6C5 ´ 5C0
P(E ) = 11
C5
= 0.75
6 ´ 10 + 15 ´ 5 + 6 ´ 1
Also =
462
P( A Ç B) 141
P( A / B) = =
P( B) 462
P( A È B) Answer: (A)
=
P( B)
15. Each of two bags A and B contain n cards numbered
1 - P( A È B) 1 to n. One card from each of A and B is drawn.
=
1 - P( B) The probability that the card drawn from A bears
number smaller than the number on the card drawn
1 - 0.75
= from B is
1 - 0.6
n+1 n-1 n+1 n-1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
0.25 250 5 2n 2n n n
= = =
0.4 400 8
Answer: (B)
514 Chapter 7 Probability

Solution: Let 17. Let E, F and G be pairwise independent events with

P(G) > 0 and P(E Ç F Ç G) = 0. Then
T P((E Ç F )/G))
E1 = Number drawn from A is smaller than that drawn
is equal to
from B.
E2 = Number drawn from A is greater than that drawn (A) P(E) + P(F ) (B) P(E) - P(F )
from B.
(C) P(E) - P(F ) (D) P(E) - P(F )
E3 = Both numbers are equal.
Solution: Note that
Note that
P( A - B) = P( A - A Ç B) (∵ A - B = A - A Ç B)
P(E1 ) = P(E2 )
and also
n 1
and P(E3 ) = 2 =
n n P( A - B) = P( A Ç B) (∵ A - B = A Ç B)
Therefore

1 P(E Ç F Ç G) = P(G - (E Ç F ))
2 P(E1 ) = 1 - P(E3 ) = 1 -
n = P(G - (E È F ))
n-1 = P(G - G Ç (E È F ))
Þ P(E1 ) =
2n
= P(G) - P((G Ç E) È (G Ç F ))
Answer: (B) (See Theorem 7.2)
= P(G) - P(G Ç E) - P(G Ç F )
16. A, B, C are three events such that P(A) = 0.3,
P(B) = 0.4, P(C) = 0.8, P(A Ç B) = 0.08, P(C Ç A) = + P(G Ç E Ç F ) (By Theorem
m 7.2)
0.28, P(A Ç B Ç C) = 0.09, and P(A È B È C) ³ 0.75. = P(G) - P(G)P(E) - P(G)P(F ) + 0
Then P(B Ç C) belongs to the interval:
(∵ P(E Ç F Ç G) = 0 and E, F
(A) [0.11, 0.23] (B) [0.23, 0.48]
and G are pairwise independent)
(C) [0.13, 0.25] (D) [0.15, 0.20]
= P(G)(1 - P(E) - P(F ))
Solution: We have
= P(G)( P(E) - P(F ))
P( A È B È C ) = (å P( A)) - P( A Ç B) - P( B Ç C )
Hence
- P(C Ç A) + P( A Ç B Ç C )
P(E Ç F Ç G)
= (0.3 + 0.4 + 0.8) - 0.08 - P( B Ç C ) P((E Ç F )/G)) =
P(G)
- 0.28 + 0.09 (7.1)
P(G)[ P(E) - P(F )]
= = P (E ) - P (F )
Therefore P(G)
P( B Ç C ) = 1.23 - P( A È B È C ) ³ 1.23 - 1 Answer: (C)

= 0.23 [∵ P( A È B È C ) £ 1] 18. Six students are to be selected for a quiz competition

from 10 aspirants. The probability that two partic-
0.23 £ P( B Ç C ) ular students are excluded is
Also 2 1 1 2
(A) (B) (C) (D)
15 3 5 3
P( B Ç C ) £ 1.23 - (0.75) = 0.48
Solution: Total number of selections of 6 from 10 = 10C6.
[∵ 0.75 £ P( A È B È C )]
Since two particular students are to be excluded, we have
So to select 6 from 8 only. This can be done in 8C6 ways. The
required probability is
P( B Ç C ) £ 0.48 (7.3) 8
C6 8 6´ 4
= ´
Equations (7.2) and (7.3) imply 10
C6 6 ´ 2 10

0.23 £ P( B Ç C ) £ 0.48 3× 4 2
= =
9 × 10 15
Answer: (B)
Answer: (A)
 Worked-Out Problems 515

19. E and F are complementary events of the events (D) We have

F. If 0 < P(F)
E and F F < 1, then
P (E Ç F ) P (E Ç F )
(A) P(E / F ) + P(E / F ) < 1 P (E / F ) + P (E / F ) = +
P(F ) P(F )
(B) P(E / F ) + P(E / F ) = 1 P(E Ç F ) + P(E Ç F )
=
(C) P(E / F ) + P(E / F ) = 1 P(F )
(D) P(E / F ) + P(E / F ) = 1 P(F Ç (E È E )
=
P(F )
Solution:
(A) We have P(F )
= =1
P(F )
P(E Ç F ) P(E Ç F )
P(E / F ) + P(E / F ) = +
P(F ) P(F ) Therefore (D) is correct.
Answer: (D)
P(F Ç (E È E))
=
P(F ) 20. If P( B) = 3 / 4, P( A Ç B Ç C ) = 1/ 3 and P( A Ç B Ç C ) =
1/3, then P(B Ç C
C) is
P(F )
= =1
P(F ) 1 1 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
12 6 15 9
Thus, (A) is not correct.
(B) We have Solution: From Figure 7.2 we have
B = (B Ç C ) È ( A Ç B Ç C ) È ( A Ç B Ç C )
P(E / F ) + P(E / F )
Therefore
P(E Ç F ) P(E Ç F )
= +
P(F ) P(F ) P( B Ç C ) = P( B) - P( A Ç B Ç C ) - P( A Ç B Ç C )

P(E Ç F )P(F ) + P(E Ç F )P(F ) 3 æ 1 1ö

= = -ç + ÷
P(F )P (F ) 4 è 3 3ø
3 2 1
P(E Ç F )(1 - P(F )) + P(E Ç F )P(F ) = - =
= 4 3 12
P (F )P (F )

[ P(E Ç F ) - P(E Ç F )]P(F ) + P(E Ç F ) A B

= ¹1
P(F )P(F )
Hence (B) is not correct.
(C) We have

P(E / F ) + P(E / F ) C

P(E Ç F ) P(E Ç F )
= + FIGURE 7.2 Single correct choice type question 20.
P(F ) P(F )
Answer: (A)
P(E Ç F )P(F ) + P(E Ç F )P(F )
=
P(F )P(F ) 21. If three distinct natural numbers are chosen randomly
from the first 100 natural numbers, then the probability
P(E Ç F )(1 - P(F )) + P(E Ç F )P(F ) that all three of them are divisible by both 2 and 3 is
=
P(F )P(F ) 4 4 4 4
(A) (B) (C) (D)
P(F )[ P(E Ç F ) - P(E Ç F )] + P(E Ç F ) 25 35 33 1155
= ¹1
P(F )P(F ) Solution: A number is divisible by 6, only when it is
So (C) is not correct. divisible by both 2 and 3. Therefore the number of multi-
ples of 6 (<100) is 16 (they are 6, 12, 18, …, 96).
516 Chapter 7 Probability

From 100 numbers three are selected in 100C3 ways. 23. A natural number x is selected at random from the
From 16 numbers 3 are selected in 16C3 ways. first 100 natural numbers. The probability that
Therefore probability is x + (100 / x) > 50 is
16
C3 16 3 197 11 9 13 3
= ´ (A) (B) (C) (D)
100
C3 3 13 100 20 20 20 4
Solution: We have
16 ´ 15 ´ 14 4
= = 100
100 ´ 99 ´ 98 1155 x+ > 50
x
Alternate Solution
Since the three numbers are distinct, we can select the Û ( x - 25)2 > 525
three one after other without replacement. Therefore the Û | x - 25| > 22
probability is
Hence x < 3 or x > 47. So the number of favourable
16 ´ 15 ´ 14 4
= cases to x is 2 + 53 = 55. The required probability is
100 ´ 99 ´ 98 1155
55 11
Answer: (D) =
100 20
22. Let A, B and C be mutually independent events. Answer: (A)
Consider the following two statements.
Statement I: A and B È C are independent. 24. The first 12 letters of English alphabet are written
Statement II: A and B Ç C are independent. in a row at random. The probability that there are
Then, exactly four letters in between A and B is
(A) both I and II are true 5 1 7 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
(B) only I is true 66 22 66 11
(C) only II is true Solution: A and B can be arranged in 12P2 = 11 ´ 12
(D) both I and II are false ways. Since we want 4 letters in between A and B, the
order of the four letters appearing has no importance.
Solution: We know that A and B can take the following places.
A Ç ( B È C ) = ( A Ç B) È ( A Ç C )
Place for A Place for B
Now
1 6
P( A Ç ( B È C )) 2 7
= P( A Ç B) + P( A Ç C ) - P( A Ç B Ç C ) 3 8
4 9
= P( A)P( B) + P( A)P(C ) - P( A)P( B)P(C )
5 10
= P( A)[ P( B) + P(C ) - P( B)P(C )] 6 11
= P( A)[ P( B) + P(C ) - P( B Ç C )] 7 12
= P( A)P( B È C )
A and B can be interchanged. Therefore required prob-
Therefore Statement I is true. Again ability is
P( A Ç ( B Ç C )) = P( A)P( B)P(C ) 14 7
=
= P( A)P( B Ç C ) 11 ´ 12 66
Alternate Solution
Hence A and B Ç C are independent. So Statement II is
12 letters can be arranged in 12 ways. In between
also true.
A and B, four letters can be arranged in 10P4 ways. Now
Answer: (A) 6 letters for whom A and B are at extreme positions
together with 6 other letters can be arranged in 7 ways.
 Worked-Out Problems 517

Further A and B can be interchanged. Therefore the 27. Each of the letters A, B, C, D, E and F are, respec-
required probability is tively, written on six cards (one letter on one card only)
and they are well-shuffled and then the top four cards
2 ´ 10 P4 ´ 7 2 ´ 10 ´ 7 are turned face up without changing their order. Then
=
12 6 ´ 12 the probability that they form the word “DEAF” is
2´7 7 1 1
= = (A) (B) (C) 0.03 (D) 0.13
11 ´ 12 66 120 360
Answer: (C)
Solution: Total number of arrangements by cards = 6P4 =
360. In only one way, the letters form the word DEAF.F
25. If the letters of the word UNIVERSITY are arranged
Therefore
in a random order, the probability that all the vowels
come together is 1
Probability =
1 2 1 1 360
(A) (B) (C) (D)
15 15 5 30 Answer: (B)
Solution: The word UNIVERSITY consists of 10
28. A boy remembers all but the last digit of his girlfriend’s
letters out of which the vowels are e, i, i, u. The 10 letters
mobile number. He randomly chooses a digit from
can be arranged in 10 / 2 ways (since there two identical
0 to 9 (including 0 and 9). If he attempts two times, the
letters i). Since all the vowels are to be together, treat all
probability that he reaches her at least once is
the four written as a single object. The 6 + 1 = 7 objects
can be permuted in (A) 0.2 (B) 0.3 (C) 0.02 (D) 0.03
Solution: Let
æ 4ö
7 ç ÷ ways E = Event that the boy makes correct dial at least once.
è 2ø
E = Event of failing in both attempts.
(since 4 vowels can be arranged among themselves in In the first attempt, the probability of failing is 9/10. In the
4 / 2 ways). Therefore required probability is second attempt, the probability of failing is 8/9. Therefore
7( 4 / 2) 24 1 1 9 8 4
= = = P(E ) = ´ =
10 / 2 8 ´ 9 ´ 10 3 ´ 10 30 10 9 5
Answer: (D) 4 1
P(E ) = 1 - P(E ) = 1 - = = 0.2
5 5
26. A cubical die has four blank faces, one face marked Answer: (A)
2 and another marked 3. If the die is thrown 5 times,
the probability that the sum is 12 is 29. The probability of the birth dates of all 6 persons to
5 5 5 5 fall in only two different months is
(A) (B) (C) (D)
1296 1294 2596 2592 341 341 341 541
(A) (B) (C) (D)
Solution: Total number of outcomes is 126 125 124 126
Solution: Since the birth date of any person can fall in
6 ´ 6 ´ 6 ´ 6 ´ 6 = 65
anyone of the 12 months, the number of total outcomes
Let is 126. Let
E = sum of the faces is 12. E: Event that the birth dates of all 6 fall in two different
Favourable cases to E : 2 three times, 3 two times or months.
3 four times. This is possible in Number of possibilities of 6 persons’ birth dates to fall
in two different months (say February and March) is
5 5 26 -2 (this 2 corresponds to either all their birth dates fall
+ ways
23 4 in February or all fall in March). The number of ways
that we can select 2 months out of 12 is 12C2. Therefore
Therefore
12
C2 (26 - 2) 66 ´ 62 11 ´ 31 341
10 + 5 15 5 5 P(E ) = = = = 5
P(E ) = = 4 = = 126 126 125 12
65
6 ´6 2´6 4
2592
Answer: (B)
Answer: (D)
518 Chapter 7 Probability

30. A is one of the six horses entered for a race and So

one of the two jockeys B and C ride it. If B rides A,
then all the six horses are equally likely to win. If P(W2 ) = P(W2 Ç W1 ) + P(W2 Ç B1 ) (∵ B1 Ç W1 = f )
C rides A, then chances of A’s win will be trebled.
Therefore by Theorem 7.3
Then, the odds in favour of A’s win is
(A) 2 :1 (B) 3 : 2 (C) 1: 2 (D) 2 : 3 P(W2 ) = P(W1 )P(W2 /W1 ) + P( B1 )P(W2 / B1 )
Solution: Let m m+k n m
= × + ×
A = Event of A’s win. m+n m+n+k m+n m+n+k
B = Event of B riding A.
C = Event of C riding A. m(m + k ) + mn
=
(m + n)(m + n + k )
Then
m(m + k + n) m
P( A / B) =
1 = =
6 (m + n)(m + n + k ) m + n

æ 1ö 1 Answer: (C)
and P ( A /C ) = 3 ç ÷ =
è 6ø 2
32. Let A, B and C be three events such that p = P(exactly
Now one of A or B) = P(exactly one of B or C) = P(exactly
A = A Ç ( B È C ) = ( A Ç B) È ( A Ç C ) one of C or A) and P(A, B, C simultaneously) = p2
where 0 < p < 1/ 2. Then P(at least one of A, B or C)
Since B and C are mutually exclusive we have is equal to
P( A) = P( A Ç B) + P( A Ç C ) 3 p + 2 p2 2 p + 3 p2
(A) (B)
2 2
= P( B)P( A / B) + P(C )P( A / c)
2 p + 3 p2 3 p + 2 p2
1 1 1 1 1+ 3 1 (C) (D)
= ´ + ´ = = 4 4
2 6 2 2 12 3
( - B) È (B - A).
Solution: Exactly one of Aor Bmeans (A
Therefore By hypothesis
1 2 P(( A - B) È ( B - A)) = p
P( A) = 1 - =
3 3
P(( B - C ) È (C - B)) = p
Hence odds in favour (see Note under Theorem 7.1) is
P(E): P(E) = 1 : 2. P((C - A) È ( A - C )) = p
Answer: (C)
Therefore
31. An urn contains m white balls and n black balls. p = P(( A - B) È ( B - A)) = P( A - B) + P( B - A)
A ball is drawn at random and put back into the urn
along with k additional balls of the same colour as = [ P( A) - P( A Ç B)] + [ P( B) - P( B Ç A)]
that of the drawn ball. A ball is again taken out at
So
random. The probability that it is white is
m n P( A) + P( B) - 2 P( A Ç B) = p (7.4)
(A) (B)
m+n m+n
Similarly
m+n+k mn
(C) (D)
mn + k mn + k P( B) + P( B Ç C ) - 2 P( B Ç C ) = p (7.5)
Solution: Let and P(C ) + P( A) - P(C Ç A) = p (7.6)
W1 = Event of drawing a white ball in the first draw. Adding Eqs. (7.4)–(7.6), we have
B1 = Event of drawing black ball in the first draw.
W2 = Drawing white ball in the second draw. 2[ P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) - P( A Ç B)
Now
- P( B Ç C ) - P(C Ç A)] = 3 p (7.7)
W2 = W2 Ç (W1 È B1 ) = (W2 Ç W1 ) È (W2 Ç B1 )
 Worked-Out Problems 519

Now P(atleast one of A, B or C) is given by [see part (3), Solution: Let

Theorem 7.2] E1 = Event of the rupee coin transferred from A to B and
coming to A.
P( A È B È C ) = P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) - P( A Ç B) E2 = Event of rupee coin does not get transferred from A.
- P( B Ç C ) - P(C Ç A) + P( A Ç B Ç C ) E = Event of the rupee coin is still in A.
Clearly E = E1 È E2 and E1, E2 are mutually exclusive.
3p Therefore
= + p2 [Eq. (7.7) and P( A Ç B Ç C ) = p2 ]
2
P(E) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 )
3 p + 2 p2
=
2
9
C8 ´ 1C1 18C8 ´ 1C1 9C9
= 10
´ 19 + 10
Answer: (A) C9 C9 C9
9 18 9 ´ 10 1
33. A and B are two events with positive probabilities. = ´ ´ +
10 8 ´ 10 19 10
Consider the following two statements.
Statement I: P( A / B) = 1 - P( A / B). =
9
´
9
+
1
Statement II: P( A È B) = 1 - P( A)P( B / A). 10 19 10
Then 81 + 19 10
(A) both I and II are true (B) I and II are false = =
10 ´ 19 19
(C) only I is true (D) only II is true Answer: (B)
Solution:
35. A set S contains n elements. A subset P of S is selected
(1) We have
at random and after inspecting the elements, they
P( A Ç B) are put back into S and then a subset Q is selected
P( A / B) = at random. The probability that P and Q are disjoint
P( B) subsets is equal to
P( B) - P( A Ç B) æ 2ö
n
æ 1ö
n
æ 1ö
n
æ 3ö
n
= (A) ç ÷ (B) ç ÷ (C) ç ÷ (D) ç ÷
P( B) è 3ø è 4ø è 3ø è 4ø
[∵ B = ( B - A) È ( A Ç B) = ( B Ç A) È ( A Ç B)] Solution: Since a set containing n has 2n subsets,
P( A Ç B) the total number of outcomes = 2n ´ 2n = 4n. Suppose
=1- P contains “r” elements. Then, Q will have 2n-rr choices
P( B)
because P Ç Q = f. For each selection of an r-element
= 1 - P( A / B) set P, there correspond 2n-rr choices for Q. Therefore the
total number of choices for P and Q with P Ç Q being
Hence Statement I is true.
empty set is (since P can be selected in nCr ways)
(2) By De’Morgans law we have
n

P( A È B) = P( A Ç B) å
r =0
n
Cr 2n-r = nC0 2n + nC1 2n-1 + nC2 2n- 2 +  + nCn 20

= 1 - P( A Ç B) = (2 + 1)n = 3n
= 1 - P( A)P( B / A) (Theorem 7.3) Therefore the required probability is
Therefore Statement II is also true. Hence both I n
3n æ 3 ö
and II are true. =ç ÷
4n è 4 ø
Answer: (A)
Answer: (D)
34. Purse A contains 9 coins of 50 paise denomination and
a one rupee coin. Another purse B contains 10 coins 36. n + 1 consecutive natural numbers, if three
of 50 paise denomination. 9 coins are selected at numbers are selected at random, the probability that
random from A and transferred to B. Again 9 coins they are in Arithmetic progression is
are selected at random from B and transferred to A. 3n 3n
(A) (B)
The probability that the rupee coin is still in purse A is 4 n2 - 1 4 n2 + 1
11 10 9 7 2n 2n
(A) (B) (C) (D) (C) (D)
19 19 19 19 4 n2 - 1 4 n2 + 1
520 Chapter 7 Probability

Solution: Three numbers out of 2n + 1 numbers can be Hence

selected in
1 4
P(E ) = 1 - P(E ) = 1 - =
( 2 n + 1) n(4 n2 - 1) 5 5
C3 = ways
3 Answer: (D)
Let a, b, c be three numbers from the given 2n + 1
numbers that are in AP. We need not distinguish Try it out Find the fault in the following argu-
between a, b, c and c, b, a. ment. One number can be selected from {1, 2, 3, 4}
a, b, c are in AP Û a + c = 2b and the other from S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Therefore
total number of favourable cases to E is 4 ´ 6 = 24
Therefore either both a and c are even or both are odd, and hence
because b is fixed as per the relation
24 4
P(E ) = =
a + c = 2b 30 5
Now 2n + 1 consecutive numbers contain n even and
n + 1 odd or n + 1 even and n odd numbers. Therefore 38. Two numbers are selected at random from the natu-
the total number of choices for a and c is rals 1, 2, 3, …, 100 and are multiplied together. The
probability that the product thus obtained is divis-
n
C2 + ( n+1)C2 = n2 ible by 3 (upto two places of decimals) is
Hence required probability is (A) 0.65 (B) 0.55 (C) 0.45 (D) 0.35

n2 3n Solution: Two numbers can be selected from 100 in

= 100
C2 = 99 ´ 50 ways. A product of two positive integers is
[n(4 n2 - 1)]/ 3 4 n2 - 1
divisible if and only if at least one of them is divisible by
Answer: (A) 3 (since 3 is a prime).
Let E be the event that the product is divisible by 3.
37. Let a and b be the selected numbers. Therefore 3 divides
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} one by one without replacement. ab if and only if either 3 divides a or 3 divides b. Among
The probability that minimum of the numbers is less the numbers 1, 2, 3, …, 100, there are 33 multiples of 3.
than 4 is Now E = Event of none of a and b is divisible by 3 so
1 14 1 4 that there 67C2 favourable cases to E. Therefore
(A) (B) (C) (D)
15 15 5 5
67
C2
Solution: Two numbers can be selected one after other P(E ) = 100
C2
without replacement in 6 × 5 = 30 ways. Let
E = The minimum of the two is less than 4. 67 ´ 33
=
The favourable cases to E are 99 ´ 50
(1, 2) (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6)
(2, 1), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6) 67
=
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6) 150
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3)
Hence
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3)
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3) 83
P(E ) = 1 - P(E ) = = 0.55
Therefore number of favourable cases to E is 24. The 150
required probability is
Answer: (B)
24 4
P(E ) = = 39. There are four machines and it is known that exactly
30 5
two of them are faulty. They are tested one by one,
Alternate Solution in a random order till both the faulty machines are
E is the event that both numbers must be different and identified. The probability that only two tests are
among 4, 5, 6. The number of favourable cases to E is needed is
3 × 2 = 6. Therefore 1 1 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
6 1 3 6 2 4
P(E ) = =
30 5
 Worked-Out Problems 521

Solution: The procedure ends in first two tests if either and hence
both are faulty or both are good. Therefore the prob-
5 13
ability is P( A Ç B) = 1 - =
18 18
2 1 2 1 1
´ + ´ = Now
4 3 4 3 3
Answer: (A) P( A) = P( A) + P( A Ç B Ç A)

40. Let A = {1, 2, 3, 4} and B = {x1, x2} be two sets. If + P( A Ç B Ç A Ç B Ç A) +  + ¥

a function from A to B is selected at random, the = P( A) + P(( A È B) Ç A)
probability that it is a surjection is
1 2 3 7 + P(( A È B) Ç ( A È B) Ç A) +  + ¥
(A) (B) (C) (D)
2 3 5 8 = P( A) + P( A È B) × P( A) + ( P( A È B))2 +  + ¥
Solution: Total number of functions from A to B 2
1 13 1 æ 13 ö 1
is 24 = 16, out which 2 are constant functions and the = + × + ç ÷ × ++ ¥
remaining 14 are surjection. Hence the required prob- 9 18 9 è 18 ø 9
ability is 1 é 13 æ 13 ö
2
ù
= ´ ê1 + + ç ÷ +  + ¥ú
14 7 9 ëê 18 è 18 ø úû
=
16 8
1 1
Answer: (D) = ´
9 1 - (13 / 18)
41. A pair of dice is rolled together till the sum of the 18 2
= =
faces is either 5 or 7. The probability that 5 comes 9´5 5
before 7 is Answer: (B)
1 2 3 4
(A) (B) (C) (D)
5 5 5 5 42. Three faces of a fair die are yellow, two faces are
green and one face is blue. If the die is tossed three
Solution: Let A be the event that the sum is 5 and times, the probability that the colours yellow, green
B the event that the sum is 7. A and B are, respectively, and blue appear in the first, second and third toss,
their complements. Therefore respectively, is
A = A È ( A Ç B Ç A) È ( A Ç B Ç A Ç B Ç A) È  1 1 11 35
(A) (B) (C) (D)
36 12 12 36
For A, the favourable cases are
Solution: The probability of yellow in the first toss is
{(1, 4), (4, 1), (2, 3), (3, 2)} 3/6, the probability of green in the second toss is 2/6 and
the probability of blue in the third toss is 1/6. As these
For B, the favourable cases are events are independent, the required probability is
{(1, 6), (6, 1), (2, 5), (5, 2), (3, 4), (4, 3)} 3 2 1 1
´ ´ =
Therefore 6 6 6 36
Answer: (A)
4 1 6 1
P( A) = = and P( B) = =
36 9 36 6 43. A boy whose hobby is tossing a fair coin is to score
one point for every tail and 2 points for every head.
The boy goes on tossing the coin, till his score reaches
1 8 n or exceeds n where n ³ 2. If pn is the probability
P( A) = 1 - =
9 9 that his score attains exactly n, then pn is equal to
1 5 1
P( B) = 1 - = (A) pn-1 + pn- 2 (B) pn-1 + pn- 2
6 6 2
1 1 5 2 (-1)n 2n+1 + (-1)n
P( A È B) = P( A) + P( B) = + = (C) + n (D)
9 6 18 3 2 3× 2n
522 Chapter 7 Probability

Solution: As usual H denotes head and T denotes tail æ 1ö æ

2
2ö
so that = ç - ÷ ç pn - 2 - ÷
è 2ø è 3ø
1 3
P( H ) = = P(T ) æ 1ö æ 2ö
2 = ç - ÷ ç pn - 3 - ÷
è 2ø è 3ø
Let En denote the event that the score is n. One can 
easily see that n-1
æ -1ö æ 2ö
En = (En- 2 Ç H ) È (En-1 Ç T )
=ç ÷ çè p1 - ÷
è 2ø 3ø
n-1
Therefore æ 1ö æ 1 2ö
= ç- ÷ çè - ÷ø
è 2ø 2 3
pn = P(En )
= P(En- 2 Ç H ) + P(En-1 Ç T ) Hence
n-1
= P(En- 2 )P( H ) + P(En-1 )P(T ) 2 æ 1ö æ 1ö
pn = + ç- ÷ çè - ÷ø
1 3 è 2ø 6
= ( pn- 2 + pn-1 ) n
2 2 1 æ 1ö
= + ç- ÷
Now 3 3 è 2ø

1 1 2n+1 + (-1)n
pn + pn-1 = pn-1 + pn- 2 =
2 2 3× 2n
1 Answer: (D)
= pn- 2 + pn- 3
2
44. In Problem 43, the probability that his score is
1 exactly 5 is
= pn- 3 + pn- 4
2 21 21 65 31
(A) (B) (C) (D)
…………… 32 64 96 96
…………… Solution: In the formula,
1 2n+1 + (-1)n
= p2 + p1 pn =
2 3× 2n
Since put n = 5 so that
1
p1 = P(T ) = p5 =
63
=
21
2 3× 32 32
and p2 = P((T Ç T ) È H ) Answer: (A)
= P(T )P(T ) + P( H )
45. A pair of fair dice is rolled. The probability that the
1 1 1 3 sum is 9 given that 5 appeared on the first die is
= ´ + =
2 2 2 4 1 8 1 5
(A) (B) (C) (D)
we have 9 9 6 6

1 1 3 1 Solution: Let
pn + pn-1 = p2 + p1 = + = 1 E1 = Event of 5 occurs on the first die.
2 2 4 4
E2 = Sum of the faces is 9.
Therefore
Favourable cases to E1 are
2 1 1
pn - = - pn - 1 (5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5) and (5, 6)
3 3 2
1æ 2ö Favourable cases to E2 are
= - ç pn - 1 - ÷
2è 3ø (5, 4), (4, 5), (3, 6) and (6, 3)
 Worked-Out Problems 523

Therefore Table 7.6 Single correct choice type question 47

E1 Ç E2 = {(5, 4)} No. of values
“c” value 4c value b value(b2 ³ 4c) of b
Hence
1 4 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 5
P(E1 Ç E2 ) 2 8 3, 4, 5, 6 4
P(E2 / E1 ) =
P(E1 ) 3 12 4, 5, 6 3
æ 1ö æ 6ö 1 4 16 4, 5, 6 3
=ç ÷ ¸ç ÷ =
è 36 ø è 36 ø 6 5 20 5, 6 2
6 24 5, 6 2
Answer: (C)
Total 19
46. Two numbers x and y are selected at random from
the set of the first 3n natural numbers (n ³ 1) one Therefore required probability is 19/36.
after other without replacing the first drawn number. Answer: (C)
The probability that x2 - y2 is divisible by 3 is
4n - 1 2n - 3 48. In the game of cricket, an over means 6 balls.
(A) (B)
3(3n - 1) 3(3n - 1) A batsman can score 0 or 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 6 runs
per ball. In the last over of the match, a team needs
2n + 3 5n - 3
(C) (D) 30 runs to win. The probability to win the match is
3(3n - 1) 3(3n - 1) 70 51 91 71
(A) 6 (B) 6 (C) 6 (D) 6
Solution: Fermat’s theorem states that, if p is a prime 6 6 6 6
and x is any natural number, then either p divides x or
Solution: There are four possibilities to win.
xp-1 -1 is divisible by p. Hence, if x is a positive integer,
then either 3 divides x or x2 - 1 is divisible by 3. Similarly, (i) five sixes and a duck (means zero)
either 3 divides y or y2 - 1 is divisible 3. Observe that (ii) four sixes, a 2 and a 4
x2 - y2 = (x2 - 1) - (y2 - 1) is divisible by 3 if both x and y (iii) four sixes and two 3’s
are not multiples of 3.
(iv) three sixes and three fours
Among 1, 2, 3 …, 3n, there are n multiples of 3.
Among the multiples of 3, we can select two one after Table 7.7 gives the arrangements.
other without replacement in n(n - 1) ways. Out of
the remaining 2n numbers, we can select two one after Table 7.7 Single correct choice type question 48
other without replacement 2n (2n - 1) ways. Hence the
Case No. of arrangements
required probability is
(i) Five sixes 6
n(n - 1) + 2 n(2 n - 1) 5n - 3 and a 0 - 1 = 5 (∵ 666660 cannot occur)
= 5
3n(3n - 1) 3(3n - 1)
(ii) Four sixes, 6
Answer: (D) a 2 and a 4 = 30
4
47. The coefficients b and c of the quadratic expression (iii) Four sixes 6
and two 3’s = 15
x + bx + c will be determined by throwing a fair die. If
2
42
one such quadratic expression is selected at random, (iv) Three sixes 6
the probability that the equation x2 + bx + c = 0 has and three = 20
33
real roots is equal to fours
13 17 19 7 Total 70
(A) (B) (C) (D)
36 36 36 12
Solution: Total number of quadratic expressions Therefore the required probability is
formed is 6 ´ 6. The equation x2 + bx + c = 0 has real
70
roots if b2 ³ 4c. Table 7.6 gives you the number of values
taken by b and c such that b2 ³ 4c. 66
(Since for each ball the batsman can score 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or
6, the number of total cases is 66.)
Answer: (A)
524 Chapter 7 Probability

Now
Try it out Six-digit numbers are formed
f randomly
using the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6 with repetitions. If a 1
number is selected at random from these, what is the = P(E )
2
probability that the sum of the digits is 30 with 0 not in
the units place? = P( A)P( B)P(C ) + P( A)P( B)P(C ) + P( A)P( B)P(C )
(This question is another form of Question 48.) æ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö
= pq ç ÷ + p(1 - q) ç ÷ + pq ç ÷
è 2ø è 2ø è 2ø
49. The number of throws with a single fair die required
Therefore
for a person such that his chance of getting the face
6 is 1/2 is pq + p(1 - q) + pq = 1
(A) 6 (B) 5 (C) 4 (D) 3 p + pq = 1
Solution: Let x be the number of chances required. Answer: (B)
1
E = Event of throwing 6 so that P(E) =
6 51. Four friends put their car keys on a table. When
Therefore they leave the place, they picked up their keys at
random. The probability that no person picks his
1 5 own key is
P(E ) = 1 - =
6 6 3 1 5 3
(A) (B) (C) (D)
x 8 4 8 4
æ 5ö
Probability of not throwing 6 in all the x chances = ç ÷
è 6ø Solution: This problem is nothing but derangement
Therefore x
problem (See Theorem
T 6.20 and Try
T it out, page 295,Vol.
V 1).
æ 5ö 1 The number of derangements of 4 distinct elements is
Probability of throwing 6 at least once = 1 - ç ÷ =
è 6ø 2
This implies æ 1 1 1 1ö
4 ç 1 - + - + ÷ = 12 - 4 + 1 = 9
è 1 2 3 4ø
log(1/ 2)
x= = 3.8 approximately
log(5 / 6)

Therefore the number of chances required is 4. 9 9 3

= =
Answer: (C) 4 24 8
Answer: (A)
50. A person is assigned three works A, B and C. The
probabilities of the person finishing the works A, B 52. An unbiased coin is tossed. If the result is head, then
and C are, respectively, p, q and 1/2. The person will a pair of fair dice is rolled and the number obtained
get full payment only if he either completes atleast by adding the numbers on the faces is noted. If the
the works A and B or A and C. If the probability of result is a tail, then a card is picked from a well-shuf-
his getting full payment is 1/2, then fled pack of 11 cards numbered 2, 3, 4, …, 12 and
(A) p + q = pq (B) p + pq = 1 the number is noted. The probability that the noted
2 1 number is either 7 or 8 is
(C) p + pq = (D) p - pq = 183 193 173 153
3 2 (A) (B) (C) (D)
792 792 792 792
Solution: Let A, B and C denote the events of the
person finishing the works A, B and C, respectively. By Solution: Let H and T be the events of head and tail,
hypothesis respectively. E is the event of the noted number is 7 or 8.
Then
1
P( A) = p, P( B) = q and P(C ) = E = E Ç ( H È T ) = (E Ç H ) È (E Ç T )
2
Let E be the event of the person getting full payment. and E Ç H, E Ç T are mutually exclusive. Therefore
Therefore P(E ) = P(E Ç H ) + P(E Ç T )
E = (A Ç B Ç C) È (A Ç B Ç C) È (A Ç B Ç C) = P(H )P(E /H ) + P(T )P(E /T ) (Theorem 7.3) (7.8)
 Worked-Out Problems 525

When a pair of dice is rolled, the favourable cases to the 54. The probability that India winning a hockey match
event of the sum is 7 or 8 are against Pakistan is 1/2. In a 5-match series, India
surely wins the third match is
(1, 6), (6, 1), (2, 5), (5, 2), (3, 4),
1 1 2 1
(4, 3), (4, 4) (5, 3), (3, 5), (2, 6), (6, 2) (A) (B) (C) (D)
8 4 3 2
Therefore Solution: India winning the third match is independent
11 2 of the results of the first two matches. Hence, the prob-
P(E / H ) = and P(E /T ) = ability that India surely winning the third match is 1/2.
36 11
Answer: (D)
Therefore from Eq. (7.8),
55. The probability of India winning a test match against
1 11 1 2
P(E ) = ´ + ´ England is 1/2. In a five match series, the probability
2 36 2 11 that India registers its second win in the third test is
121 + 72 193 (you can assume the independence from match to
= =
72 ´ 11 792 match)
Answer: (B) 1 1 1 2
(A) (B) (C) (D)
8 2 4 3
53. The odds in favour of a book reviewed by three
independent critics are, respectively, 5 : 2, 4 : 3 and Solution: India has to win one of the first two tests and
3 : 4. The probability that majority of the critics give a win in the third test. Therefore required probability is
favourable remark is P(W Ç L Ç W ) + P(L Ç W Ç W ) = P(W )P(L)P(W )
210 209 211 205 + P(L)P(W )P(W )
(A) (B) (C) (D)
343 343 343 343
1 1 1 1 1 1
= ´ ´ + ´ ´
Solution: Let E1, E2 and E3 be the events of the critics 2 2 2 2 2 2
giving favourable remarks. Then 1
=
5 4 3 4
P(E1 ) = , P(E2 ) = and P(E3 ) =
7 7 7 where W denotes win and L denotes loss.
E be the event that majority reviewed favourably. Answer: (C)
Therefore
56. A person has to go through three successive tests.
E = (E1 Ç E2 Ç E3 ) È (E1 Ç E2 Ç E3 ) The probability of his passing first test is p. If he fails
È (E1 Ç E2 Ç E3 ) È (E1 Ç E2 Ç E3 ) in one of the tests, then the probability his passing
next test is p/2, otherwise it remains the same. For
Hence selection, the person must pass atleast two tests. The
probability that the person to be selected is
P(E) = P(E1 )P(E2 )P(E3 ) + P(E1 )P(E2 )P(E3 )
(A) p2 + p3 (B) 22p2 - p3
+ P(E1 )P(E2 )P(E3 ) + P(E1 )P(E2 )P(E3 ) 1 3
(C) p2 - 2p
2 3 (D) p2 + p
5 4 æ 3ö æ 5ö 4 3 5 2
= ´ ´ ç1 - ÷ + ç1 - ÷ ´ ´ +
7 7 è 7ø è 7ø 7 7 7 Solution: Let Ei (i = 1, 2, 3) be the event of the person
æ 4ö 3 5 4 3 passing the ith test and E is the event that he is selected.
´ ç1 - ÷ ´ + ´ ´ Then
è 7ø 7 7 7 7
5 4 4 2 4 3 5 3 3 5 4 3 E = (E1 Ç E2 ) È (E1 Ç E2 Ç E3 ) È (E1 Ç E2 Ç E3 )
= ´ ´ + ´ ´ + ´ ´ + ´ +
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Therefore
80 + 24 + 455 + 60 P(E) = P(E1 )P(E2 / E1 ) + P(E1 )P(E2 / E1 )P(E3 / E2 )
=
7´7´7
+ P(E1 )P(E2 / E1 )P(E3 / E2 )
209
= p p
343 = p × p + p(1 - p) + (1 - p) × p
2 2
Answer: (B)
= 2 p2 - p3
Answer: (B)
526 Chapter 7 Probability

57. A and B are independent events and C is the event It is given that
in which exactly one of A or B occurs. Then
1
(A) P(C ) £ P( A È B)P( A Ç B) P(defective screw of A) =
10
(B) P(C ) ³ P( A È B)P( A Ç B)
1
(C) P(C ) = P( A È B)P( A Ç B) and P(defective screw of B) =
5
(D) P(C) = P(A È B) P(A Ç B)
Therefore
Solution: We have
P(E) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 ) + P(E3 ) + P(E4 ) + P(E5 ) (7.10)
C = ( A - B) È ( B - A) = ( A Ç B) È ( A Ç B)
Now
Since A and B are independent, the pairs ( A, B), ( A, B)
and ( A, B) are also pairs of independent events. Further 4
C1 ´ 5C1 1 4 2
A Ç B and A Ç B are mutually exclusive. Now, let P(E1 ) = 9
´ ´ =
C2 10 5 45
P(A) = x and P(B) = y. Therefore
5
C1 ´ 4 C1 1 9 1
P(C ) = P( A Ç B) + P( A Ç B) P(E2 ) = 9
´ ´ =
C2 5 10 10
= P( A)P( B) + P( A)P( B) 5
C1 ´ 4 C1 1 1 1
P(E3 ) = 9
´ ´ =
= x(1 - y) + (1 - x) y (7.9) C2 10 5 90
4 2
Also C2 æ 1 ö 1
P(E4 ) = ´ç ÷ =
9
C2 è 10 ø 600
P(A È B)P(A Ç B) = [ P(A) + P(B) - P(A Ç B)]P(A)P(B)
5 2
C2 æ 1 ö 1
= ( x + y - xy)(1 - x)(1 - y) P(E5 ) = ´ç ÷ =
9
C2 è 5 ø 90
= ( x + y)(1 - x)(1 - y) - xy(1 - x)(1 - y)
Substituting these values in Eq. (7.10), we have
£ ( x + y)(1 - x)(1 - y) [∵ xy(1 - x)(1 - y) ³ 0]
303
= x(1 - x)(1 - y) + y(1 - x)(1 - y) P(E ) = = 0.168 (approximately)
1800
= x(1 - y) - x2 (1 - y) + y(1 - x) - y2 (1 - x) Answer: (A)

= x(1 - y) + y(1 - x) - [ x2 (1 - y) + y2 (1 - x)] 59. If a circle is selected at random touching all the sides
of a triangle, then the probability that it touches two
£ x(1 - y) + y(1 - x) = P(C ) [by Eq
q. (7.9)]
sides externally and one side internally is
Answer: (B)
1 3 1 2
(A) (B) (C) (D)
4 4 2 3
58. A factory A produces 10% of defective screws and
another factory B produces 20% of defective screws. Solution: It is known that there are four circles touching
A bag contains 4 screws of factory A and 5 screws of all the three sides of a triangle out of which one is the
factory B. If two screws are drawn at random from incircle and the other three are ex-circles. Therefore the
the bag, then the probability that atleast one screw is required probability is 3/4.
defective (correct to three places of decimals) is Answer: (B)
(A) 0.168 (B) 0.158 (C) 0.165 (D) 0.155
Solution: Let E be the event that atleast one screw is 60. Three groups A, B and C are competing for the posi-
defective. Then E can be regarded as the union of the tions on the Board of Directors of a company. The
following events. probabilities of their winning are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2,
respectively. If the group A wins, the probability of
E1 = one defective from A and one non-defective from B.
introducing a new product is 0.7 and other corre-
E2 = one defective from B and one non-defective from A. sponding probabilities for groups B and C are, respec-
E3 = one defective from A and one defective from B. tively, 0.6 and 0.5. The probability that new product
E4 = both defective from A. will be introduced is
E5 = both defective from B. (A) 0.43 (B) 0.53 (C) 0.63 (D) 0.73
 Worked-Out Problems 527

Solution: Let A, B and C be the events winning of A,B and 62. Bag A contains 5 red and 7 white balls and bag B
C, respectively. E is the introduction of new product. Then contains 3 red and 12 white balls. One of the bags
is selected at random and one ball is drawn from it.
E = E Ç ( A È B È C ) = (E Ç A) È (E Ç B) È (E Ç C ) The probability that the drawn ball is red is
Therefore 37 83 63 17
(A) (B) (C) (D)
P(E) = P(E Ç A) + P(E Ç B) + P(E Ç C ) 120 120 120 120

= P( A)P(E / A) + P( B)P(E / B) + P(C )P(E /C ) Solution: Let A and B denote the events of selecting
bags A and B, respectively, and R denote drawing a red
5 7 3 6 2 5 ball. Then
= ´ + ´ + ´
10 10 10 10 10 10
R = ( A È B) Ç R = ( A Ç R) È ( B Ç R)
63
= = 0.63 Therefore
100
Answer: (C) P(R) = P( A Ç R) + P( B Ç R)
= P( A)P(R / A) + P( B)P(R / B)
61. A box contains m green balls and n yellow balls. It is
given that the probability of drawing 2 yellow balls 1 5 1 3
= ´ + ´
from the bag is 5 times the probability of drawing 2 2 12 2 15
green balls. Also, the probability of drawing 1 ball
1æ 5 3ö
of each colour is equal to 6 times the probability of = ç + ÷
drawing 2 green balls. Then the pair (m, n) is equal to 2 è 12 15 ø
(A) (6, 3) (B) (3, 5) (C) (4, 6) (D) (3, 6) 25 + 12 37
= =
2 ´ 60 120
Solution: Let GK and YK be the events of drawing K
green balls and K yellow balls. Therefore Answer: (A)

n(n - 1) 63. On each evening a boy either watches

P(Y2 ) = nC2 ¸ ( m+ n)C2 =
(m + n)(m + n - 1) DOORDARSHAN channel or TEN SPORTS. The
probability that he watches TEN SPORTS is 4/5. If
m(m - 1)
P(G2 ) = mC2 ¸ ( m+ n)C2 = he watches DOORDARSHAN, there is a chance of
(m + n)(m + n - 1) 3/4 that he will fall asleep, while it is 1/4 when he
2 mn watches TEN SPORTS. On one day, the boy is found
P(G1 Ç Y1 ) = (mC1 ´ nC1 ) ¸ ( m+ n)C2 = to be asleep. The probability that the boy watched
(m + n)(m + n - 1)
DOORDARSHAN is
Now by hypothesis 5 2 3 4
(A) (B) (C) (D)
P(Y2 ) = 5P(G2 ) Þ n(n - 1) = 5m(m - 1) (7.11) 7 7 7 7

and P(G1 Ç Y1 ) = 6 P(G2 ) Þ 2 mn = 6 m(m - 1) (7.12) Solution: Let E1 and E2 be the events of the boy
watching DOORDARSHAN and TEN SPORTS, respec-
From Eq. (7.12), we have n = 3(m -1). Put this value of n tively. It is given that
in Eq. (7.11) so that
1 4
3(m - 1)(3m - 4) = 5m(m - 1) P(E1 ) = and P(E2 ) =
5 5
4 m2 - 16 m + 12 = 0 E be the event of the boy falls asleep. Again by
(m - 1)(m - 3) = 0 hypothesis
m = 1, 3 3 1
P(E / E1 ) = and P(E / E2 ) =
4 4
Now
Now
m n = 3m - 3
1 0 E = E Ç (E1 È E2 ) = (E1 Ç E) È (E2 Ç E)
3 6 so that
Since n ¹ 0, the pair (m, n) = (3, 6). P(E) = P(E1 )P(E / E1 ) + P(E2 )P(E / E2 )
Answer: (D)
528 Chapter 7 Probability

By Bayes’ theorem (Theorem 7.7) H2: Second toss head.

P(E1 )P(E / E1 ) E1: Selecting fair coin.
P(E1 / E) = E2: Selecting two headed coin.
P(E1 )P(E / E1 ) + P(E2 )P(E / E2 )
Then
(1/ 5) ´ (3 / 4) 3
= =
(1/ 5) ´ (3 / 4) + (4 / 5) ´ (1/ 4) 7 H2 = (E1 Ç H1 Ç H2 ) È (E1 Ç T1 Ç H2 ) È (E2 Ç H1 Ç H2 )
Answer: (C) Therefore

64. The chance that doctor A will diagnose disease X P( H2 ) = P(E1 Ç H1 )P( H2 /(E1 Ç H1 )) + P(E1 Ç T1 )
correctly is 60%. The chance that a patient of doctor P( H2 /(E1 Ç H1 )) + P(E2 Ç H1 )P( H2 /(E2 Ç H1 ))
A dies after correct treatment is 75% while it is 80%
after wrong diagnosis. A patient of doctor A having = P(E1 )P( H1 /E1 )P( H2 /(E1 Ç H1 )) + P(E1 )P(T1 /E1)
disease X dies. The probability that his disease is P( H2 /(E1 Ç T1 )) + P(E2 )P( H1 /E2 )
correctly diagnosed is
P( H2 /(E2 Ç H1 )) (Corollary 7.1)
8 9 11 6
(A) (B) (C) (D)
17 17 17 17 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
= ´ ´1+ ´ ´ + ´1´
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Solution: Let A denote the event of correct diagnosis
and E the event of patient’s death. It is given that 1 1 1 5
= + + =
4 8 4 8
60 40
P( A) = , P( A) = , Answer: (A)
100 100
75 80 66. In a test, an examinee either guesses or copies or
P(E / A) = and P(E / A) =
100 100 knows the answer for a multiple choice question
having FOUR choices of which exactly one is correct.
By Bayes’ theorem (Theorem 7.7)
The probability that he makes a guess is 1/3 and the
P( A)P(E / A) probability for copying is 1/6. The probability that
P( A / E ) = his answer is correct, given that he copied it is 1/8.
P( A)P(E / A) + P( A)P(E / A)
The probability that he knew the answer, given that
60 75 his answer is correct is
´
= 100 100 5 9 24 20
60 75 40 80 (A) (B) (C) (D)
´ + ´ 29 29 29 29
100 100 100 100
3 3 Solution: Let the events be defined as
´ E1: Guessing
= 5 4
3 3 2 4 E2: Copying
´ + ´
5 4 5 5 E3: Knowing
9 E: Correct answer
=
17 By hypothesis,
Answer: (B)
1 1 1 1 1
P(E1 ) = , P(E2 ) = , P(E3 ) = 1 - - =
65. A person has two coins in his pocket of which one is 3 6 3 6 2
a fair coin and the other has heads on both the sides 1
P(E / E1 ) = (out of four choicces only one is correct)
(i.e., two headed coin). He selects one of the coins at 4
random and tosses. If head appears, then he will toss
1
the other coin otherwise he tosses the same coin. The P(E / E2 ) =
probability that head appears in the second toss is 8
5 3 7 1 P(E / E3 ) = 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
8 8 8 8
Solution: Let P(E3)P(E /E3)
P(E3 /E) =
H1: First toss head. P(E1)P(E /E1) + P(E2)P(E /E2) + P(E3)P(E /E3)
T1: First toss tail.
 Worked-Out Problems 529

1 Solution: Let the events be

´1
= 2 E1: Event of Mr. Iyyengar’s selection
1 1 1 1 1
´ + ´ + ´1 E2: Event of Dr. Singh’s selection
3 4 6 8 2
E3: Event of Prof. Mukherjee’s selection.
24
= E: Event of introduction of co-education.
29
By hypothesis,
Answer: (C)
P(E1 ) = 0.5, P(E2 ) = 0.3, P(E3 ) = 0.2
67. A letter is to come from either LONDONorCLIFTON.
and P(E / E1 ) = 0.5, P(E / E2 ) = 0.7, P(E / E3 ) = 0.6
The postal mark on the letter legibly shows consecutive
letters “ON”. The probability that the letter has come By Bayes’ theorem,
from LONDON is
P(E2)P(E /E2)
12 13 5 4 P(E2 /E) =
(A) (B) (C) (D) P(E1)P(E /E1) + P(E2)P(E /E2) + P(E3)P(E /E3)
17 17 17 17
(0.3)(0.7)
Solution: Let the events be defined as =
(0.5)(0.5) + (0.3)(0.7) + (0.2)(0.6)
E1: Letter coming from LONDON.
0.21 0.21 21
E2: Letter coming from CLIFTON. = = =
0.25 + 0.21 + 0.12 0.58 58
E: Two consecutive letters ON.
Answer: (B)
The word LONDON contains 5 types of consecutive
letters (LO, ON, ND, DO, ON) of which there are two
69. Bag A contains 3 white and 2 black balls. Bag B
ON’s. The word CLIFTON contains 6 types of consecu-
contains 2 white and 2 black balls. One ball is drawn
tive letters (CL, LI, IF, FT, TO, ON) of which there is
at random from A and transferred to B. One ball is
one “ON”. Now
selected at random from B and is found to be white.
1 The probability that the transferred ball is white is
P(E1 ) = = P(E2 )
2 8 5 4 9
(A) (B) (C) (D)
2 13 13 13 13
P(E / E1 ) =
5 Solution: Let E1 and E2 denote the events of the
1 transferred ball being white and black, respectively. W
and P(E / E2 ) = denotes the drawn ball from B is white. By hypothesis,
6
3
By Bayes’ theorem, C1 3
P(E1 ) = 5
=
C1 5
1 2
´ 2
2 5 12 C1 2
P(E1 / E) = = P(E2 ) = =
1 2 1 1 17 5
C1 5
´ + ´
2 5 2 6 3
C1 3
Answer: (A) P(W / E1 ) = 5
=
C1 5
68. Three persons Mr. Iyyengar, Dr. Singh and 2
C1 2
Prof. Mukherjee are competing for the post of the P(W / E2 ) = 5
=
C1 5
principal of a degree college exclusively meant
for boys. Their chances are, respectively, 0.5, 0.3 By Bayes’ theorem,
and 0.2. If Mr. Iyyengar is selected, he will introduce
co-education with probability 0.5 while the prob- P(E1 )P(W / E1 )
P(E1 /W ) =
abilities are 0.7 and 0.6 with regard to Dr. Singh P(E1 )P(W / E1 ) + P(E2 )P(W / E2 )
and Prof. Mukherjee, respectively. Co-education 3 3
is introduced in the college. The probability that ´
5 5 9
Dr. Singh is selected as principal is = =
3 3 2 2 13
31 21 27 37 ´ + ´
(A) (B) (C) (D) 5 5 5 5
58 58 58 58 Answer: (D)
530 Chapter 7 Probability

70. A bag contains 4 black, 2 white and 6 red balls. Solution: Let Bj be the number of black balls trans-
Another bag contains 3 black and 5 white balls. An ferred (j = 0, 1, 2, 3). B is the event of drawing a black
unbiased die is thrown. If either 1 or 2 appears, a ball ball. Therefore
is chosen from the first bag, otherwise a ball from 5
the second bag. If the drawn ball is black then the C4 5
P( B0 ) = 8
=
probability that 2 appeared on the die is C4 70
2 11 6 7
(A) (B) (C) (D) 3
C1 ´ 5C3 30
13 13 13 13 P( B1 ) = 8
=
C4 70
Solution: Let the events be
3
C2 ´ 5C2 30
E1: Event of 1 appearing. P( B2 ) = 8
=
C4 70
E2: Event of 2 appearing.
E3: E1 È E2 = E1 Ç E2.
3
C3 ´ 5C1 5
P( B3 ) = 8
=
B: Event of drawing a black ball. C4 70
Now Also
1 1 4 P( B / B0 ) = 0 (∵ no black ball is transferred)
P(E1 ) = , P(E2 ) = , P(E3 ) =
6 6 6
1
4 P( B / B1 ) =
P( B / E1 ) = 4
12
2
4 P( B / B2 ) =
P( B / E2 ) = 4
12
3
3 P( B / B3 ) =
P( B / E3 ) = 4
8
Therefore by Bayes’ theorem,
By Bayes’ theorem
P( B3 )P( B / B3 )
P(E2)P(B /E2) P( B3 / B) =
P(E2 /B) = 3
P(E1)P(B /E1) + P(E2)P(B /E2) + P(E3)P(B /E3) å P(B )P(B / B )
i =0
i i

1 4
´ 5 3
= 6 12 ´
1 4 1 4 4 3 = 70 4
´ + ´ + ´ 5 30 1 30 2 5 3
6 12 6 12 6 8 ´0+ ´ + ´ + ´
70 70 4 70 4 70 4
1
3 1 6 2 15 15 1
= = ´ = = = =
1 1 3 3 13 13 30 + 60 + 15 105 7
+ +
3 3 2 Answer: (D)
Answer: (A)
72. A person goes to office either by car, scooter, bus
71. Bag A contains 5 white and 3 black balls. Bag B is or train whose probabilities are, respectively, 1/7, 3/7,
empty. Four balls are taken at random from A and 2/7 and 1/7. The probability that he reaches office on
transferred to empty bag B. From B, a ball is drawn time, if he takes car, scooter bus or train is 7/9, 8/9, 5/9
at random and is found to be black. Then, the prob- and 8/9, respectively. Given that he reached office in
ability that among the transferred balls three are time, the probability that he travelled by car is
black and one is white is 1 2 6 5
(A) (B) (C) (D)
1 7 6 1 7 7 7 7
(A) (B) (C) (D)
8 8 7 7
Solution: Let E1, E2, E3 and E4 denote the events
of the person travelling by car, scooter, bus or train,
 Worked-Out Problems 531

respectively. Let E denote the event of his reaching 74. If a natural number n is selected from the set {4, 5,
office in time. By hypothesis 6, …, 23}, then the probability that
1 3 2 1 x1 x2 x3 x4 + x2 x3 x4 x5 + x3 x4 x5 x6 +  + xn x1 x2 x3 = 0
P(E1 ) = , P(E2 ) = , P(E3 ) = , P(E4 ) =
7 7 7 7 where each of xj is either 1 or -1 is
7 8 1 2 1 3
P(E / E1 ) = , P(E / E2 ) = (A) (B) (C) (D)
9 9 5 5 4 4
5 8 Solution: Out of 20 numbers, one is selected in 20 ways.
P(E / E3 ) = , P(E / E4 ) =
9 9 Let E be the event that
By Bayes’ theorem x1 x2 x3 x4 + x2 x3 x4 x5 +  + xn x1 x2 x3 = 0
P(E1 )P(E / E1 ) where each xj = 1 or -1 (j = 1, 2, …, n). Let
P(E1 / E) = 4

å P(E )P(E / E )
j =1
j j y1 = x1 x2 x3 x4 , y2 = x2 x3 x4 x5 , yn = xn x1 x2 x3
so that
1 7
´ y1 + y2 + y3 +  + yn = 0
= 7 9
1 7 3 8 2 5 1 8
´ + ´ + ´ + ´ and each of yj = 1 or -1 (∵ xj = ±1). Therefore n must
7 9 7 9 7 9 7 9 be even say n = 2m. Among yj, m are +1 and m are -1.
7 1 Therefore
= =
49 7 y1 y2 y3  yn = (-1)m (1)m = (-1)m (7.13)
Answer: (A)
But
73. a is selected from the first 100 y1 y2 y3  yn = x14 x24 x34  xn4 = 1 (∵ xj = ± 1)
natural numbers. The probability that
From Eq. (7.13), (-1)m = 1 and m = 2K. So
éaù éaù éaù
a=ê ú+ê ú+ê ú n = 2m = 4K
ë2û ë3û ë5û
Therefore n is a multiple of 4. Among the numbers 4, 5,
where for any real x, [x] denotes the integral part of 6, …, 23 there are 5 multiples of 4. Hence
x, is
(A) 0.4 (B) 0.3 (C) 0.2 (D) 0.1 5 1
P(4) = =
20 4
Proof: The natural number “a” can be selected from
the 100 numbers in 100 ways. Let Answer: (C)

a = 30 n + r 75. “A” is an officer of a company and B is his subordi-

nate. B noticed that his officer A is happy on 60%
where 0 £ r < 30. Therefore
of his calls. B also noticed that if A is happy then A
ér ù ér ù ér ù accepts his request with probability 0.4, and when
15n + 10 n + 6 n + ê ú + ê ú + ê ú = 30 n + r A is not happy he accepts B’s request with proba-
ë2 û ë3û ë5û
bility 0.1. On one day B calls on A for a request and
ér ù ér ù ér ù A accepts it. The probability that A is happy is
n=r-ê ú-ê ú-ê ú
ë2û ë3û ë5û 1 6 3 4
(A) (B) (C) (D)
7 7 7 7
Now, for each value of r, there is exactly one value of
n and hence one value of a. Therefore the number of Solution: Let H be the event that A is happy when B
values of “a” satisfying the given conditions is 30. The calls on him and H the event that A is not happy. Let E be
required probability is the event that A accepts the request of B. By hypothesis,

30 60 3
= 0.3 P( H ) = =
100 100 5
Answer: (B) 2
P( H ) =
5
532 Chapter 7 Probability

4 77. Let S be the set of all matrices of order 3 ´ 3 whose

P(E / H ) =
10 elements are 1, 2, 3, 0, -1, -2, -3. If a matrix is selected
at random from S, the probability that it is skew-
1
P(E / H ) = symmetric is
10
1 2 1 2
(A) (B) (C) (D)
By Bayes’ theorem, 76 76 73 73
P( H )P(E / H ) Solution: Let A ÎS. Each element of A can be among
P( H / E ) =
P ( H )P (E / H ) + P ( H )P (E / H ) the given 7 elements. Hence the total number of matrices
in S is 79.
3 2 Let E be the event that A is skew-symmetric. For a
´
= 5 5 skew-symmetric matrix, the principal diagonal elements
3 2 2 1 must be zeros. Therefore, place 0 in the principal diag-
´ + ´
5 5 5 10 onal elements positions. When once the elements above
6 50 6 the principal diagonal are fixed, then automatically, the
= ´ = positions of the elements below the principal diagonal
25 14 7
will be fixed (∵ aji = -aij). Hence number of favourable
Answer: (B) cases to E is 73. Therefore,

76. A bag contains 4 balls of unknown colours. A ball is 73 1

P(E ) = =
drawn at random from it and is found to be white. 79 76
The probability that all the balls in the bag are
Answer: (A)
white is
4 1 3 2 78. Let a and b be two consecutive integers selected
(A) (B) (C) (D)
5 5 5 5 from the first 20 natural numbers. The probability
that a2 + b2 + a2 b2 is an odd positive integer is
Solution: Let Wj ( j = 1, 2, 3, 4) denote 1, 2, 3 and 4
white balls are in the bag. Let W be the ball drawn is 9 10 13
(A) (B) (C) (D) 1
white. Then 19 19 19

1 Solution: With the first 20 natural numbers, there are

P(W1 ) = P(W2 ) = P(W3 ) = P(W4 ) = 19 pairs of consecutive numbers. Let a = n, b = n + 1
4
so that n = 1, 2, 3, …, 19. Now
1
P(W /W1 ) = a2 + b2 + a2 b2 = n2 + (n + 1)2 + n2 (n + 1)2
4
2 = n4 + 2 n3 + 3n2 + 2 n + 1
P(W /W2 ) =
4 = (n2 + n + 1)2
3
P(W /W3 ) = Therefore
4
P(W /W4 ) = 1 a2 + b2 + a2 b2 = n2 + n + 1 = n(n + 1) + 1
Therefore by Bayes’ theorem which is always odd because n(n + 1) is always even. So

P(W4 /W ) =
P(W4 )P(W /W4 ) Probability = 1
4

å P(W )P(W /W )
j =1
j j
Answer: (D)

79. x, y, z are three numbers selected at random

  from

1 
the first 15 natural numbers and r = xi + yj + zk.
´1      
= 4 The probability that r × a £ 12 where a = i + j + k is
1 æ 1 2 3 4ö
ç + + + ÷ 44 37 46 47
4 è 4 4 4 4ø (A) (B) (C) (D)
91 91 91 91
4 2
= = Solution: The number of ways of selecting x, y, z is
10 5 C3 = 455. Now
15

Answer: (D)  
r × a £ 12 Û x + y + z £ 12 (7.14)
 Worked-Out Problems 533

The number of possible integral solutions satisfying the 81. An urn contains 5 red balls and 3 blue balls. A ball is
inequality Eq. (7.14) is (Theorem 6.15, Vol. 1) selected at random and discarded, but 2 more balls
12
of the other colour are added into the bag. A second
å ( n - 1)
C2 = 2C2 + 3C2 + 4C2 +  + 11C2 ball is selected at random. Then the probability that
n= 3 this ball is red is
= (3C3 + 3C2 ) + (4C2 + 5C2 +  + 11C2 ) 31 13 41 23
(A) (B) (C) (D)
(∵ C3 = 1 = C2 )
3 2 72 36 72 36

= ( C3 + 4C2 ) + (5C2 + 5C2 +  + 11C2 )

4 Solution: Let R1 and B1 denote the events that first
drawn ball is red and blue, respectively. R2 is the event
= (5C3 + 5C2 ) +  + 11C2 of the second drawn ball being red. Then

R2 = R2 Ç (R1 È B1 ) = (R2 Ç R1 ) È (R2 Ç B1 )

= (11C3 + 11C2 ) Therefore

= 12C3 = 12C9 = 220 P(R) = P(R1 )P(R2 / R1 ) + P( B1 )P(R2 / B1 )

The required probability is 5 4 3 7

= ´ + ´
8 9 8 9
220 44
=
455 91 20 + 21 41
= =
Answer: (A) 72 72
Answer: (C)
80. Using the vertices of a cube, triangles are formed. If
a triangle is selected at random from these, the prob- 82. Let S = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}. A subset of S is said
ability that it is an equilateral triangle is to be nice if it is a four-element subset such that the
2 3 1 5 four elements have no common divisor except 1. If
(A) (B) (C) (D)
7 8 7 7 a four-element subset of S is chosen at random, the
probability that it is nice is
Solution: A cube has 8 vertices out of which 3 can be
elected in 8C3 = 56 ways. Consider Figure 7.3 in which the 121 41 1 5
(A) (B) (C) (D)
vertices of the cube A1, B1, C1, D1; A2, B2, C2 and D2. If 126 42 42 126
we consider the vertex C1, then C1D2B2 is an equilateral
Solution: The number of four-element subsets of
triangle because the sides are the diagonals of 3 faces.
S = 9C4 = 126. Let E be the event of nice subset. Any four
Again C2A2B1 is equilateral. For each vertex, there
numbers selected from the numbers 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 have
corresponds an equilateral triangle so that there are 8
common divisor greater than 1. Four elements from 2, 4,
equilateral triangles. Hence the probability is
6, 8 and 10 can be selected in 5C4 = 5 ways. Therefore
8 1
= 5 121
56 7 P(E ) = Þ P(E ) = 1 - P(E ) =
126 126
C1 B1 Answer: (A)

83. An urn contains 6 white balls and 4 black balls.

Another urn contains 4 white and 6 black balls. A ball
A1 is drawn from first urn and transferred to second urn
D1
and again ball is transferred from second to first.
Now, a ball is drawn from the first urn. The prob-
ability that it is white is
C2 B2
181 81 221 123
(A) (B) (C) (D)
275 275 275 275
Solution: Let
D2 W1: Event of transfer of white ball from the
A2
first urn.
FIGURE 7.3 B1: Event of transfer of black ball from first urn.
Answer: (C) W2: Event of white ball from second to first.
534 Chapter 7 Probability

B2: Event of black ball from second to first. 3 50

= ´
W: Event of drawing white ball after the trans- 10 15 + 6
actions.
15 5
Therefore = =
21 7
W = W Ç [(W1 È B1 ) Ç W2 È (W1 È B1 ) Ç B2 ] Answer: (D)
= W Ç (W1 Ç W2 È B1 Ç W2 È W1 Ç B2 È B1 Ç B2 )
85. Box A contains 2 white, 1 black and 3 red balls. Box
= (W1 Ç W2 Ç W ) È [( B1 Ç W2 ) Ç W ] B contains 3 white, 2 black and 4 red balls. Box C
contains 4 white, 3 black and 2 red balls. A die is
È (W1 Ç B2 Ç W ) È ( B1 Ç B2 Ç W )
rolled. If 1, 2 or 3 appears, then a ball from box A
Hence will be drawn. If 4 or 5 appear, then a ball from box
B will be drawn, otherwise a ball from box C will be
6 5 6 4 4 7 6 6 5 drawn. A ball is chosen from one of the boxes and
P(W ) = ´ ´ + ´ ´ + ´ ´
10 11 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 it is found to be red. The probability that is from
4 7 6 box B is
+ ´ ´
10 11 10 12 16 11 13
(A) (B) (C) (D)
47 47 47 47
(since all the events are independent).
Answer: (A) Solution: Let A, B and C denote the selections of the
box A, B and C, respectively, and R denote drawing red
84. In a city 60% are males and 40% are females. ball. By hypothesis
Suppose 50% of males and 30% of females have
3 2 1
colour blindness. One is selected at random and is P( A) = , P( B) = and P(C ) =
found to be colour blind. The probability that the 6 6 6
selected person is male is Also
10 12 9 5
(A) (B) (C) (D) 3 4 2
19 87 19 7 P(R / A) = , P(R / B) = and P(R /C ) =
6 9 9
Solution: Let
Therefore by Bayes’ theorem
E1 = Event of selecting male.
E2 = Event of selecting female. P( B / R) =
P( B)P(R / B)
B = Event of colour blindness. P( A)P(R / A) + P( B)P(R / B) + P(C )P(R /C )
Then 2 4
´
60 3 = 6 9
P(E1 ) = = 3 3 2 4 1 2
100 5 ´ + ´ + ´
6 6 6 9 6 9
40 2
P(E2 ) = = 4
100 5
= 27
30 1 1 4 1
P( B / E1 ) = = + +
60 2 4 27 27
12 3 4 108 16
P( B / E2 ) = = = ´ =
40 10 27 27 + 20 47
By Bayes’ theorem Answer: (B)

P(E1 )P( B / E1 ) 86. Let X be a random variable whose range is {-1, 0, 1}.
P(E1 / B) =
P(E1 )P( B / E1 ) + P(E2 )P( B / E2 ) If mean m of X is 0.1, P(X = 0) = 0.3, then P(X = 1) is
3 1 (A) 0.2 (B) 0.4 (C) 0.32 (D) 0.3
´
= 5 2 Solution: By Definition 7.17
3 1 2 3
´ + ´ m = å xk P( X = xk )
5 2 5 10
 Worked-Out Problems 535

Therefore It is known that

0.1 = (-1)P( X = - 1) + (0)P( X = 0) + (1)P( X = 1) x x2 x3
ex = 1 + + + ++ ¥
This implies 1 2 3

0.1 = - u + v (7.15) where x is real or complex. Therefore

where u = P(X = -1) and v = P(X = 1). Again sum of the el - 1 = 1
probabilities of X = 1. This implies
Þ el = 2
u + 0.3 + v = 1
Þ l = loge 2
Þ u + v = 0.7 (7.16) Answer: (A)
From Eqs. (7.15) and (7.16), u = 0.3, v = 0.4. Therefore
89. The distribution of a random variable X whose
P( X = 1) = 0.4 range is {1, 2, 3, 4} is given in Table 7.8.
Answer: (B)
Table 7.8 Single correct choice type question 89
87. The range of random variable X is {1, 2, 3} and X 1 2 3 4
P(X = 1) = 3l
l3,P(X = 2) = 4l - 10l
l2, P(X = 3) = 5l -1 P(X = x) K 2K 3K 4K
where l is constant. Then P(2 £ X £ 3) is equal to
8 2 4 1 Then, the mean and variance of X are, respectively
(A) (B) (C) (D)
9 3 9 3
(A) 2, 3 (B) 3, 1 (C) 3, 2 (D) 2, 4
Solution: We have Solution: We have
3

å P( X = K ) = 1
4

K =1 å P ( X = x) = 1
x =1

Þ 3l 3 - 10 l 2 + 9 l - 1 = 1 Þ 10 K = 1
Þ 3l 3 - 10 l 2 + 9 l - 2 = 0 1
ÞK=
Þ (l - 1)(3l - 1)(l - 2) = 0 10

l cannot be 1 and 2. Therefore l = 1/3. Now 7.17, mean is

P(2 £ X £ 3) = P( X = 2) + P( X = 3) m = å xP( X = x)
æ 1ö æ 1ö 5 = 1(K ) + 2(2 K ) + 3(3K ) + 4(4 K )
= 4 ç ÷ - 10 ç ÷ + - 1
è 3ø è 9ø 3
30
= 30 K = =3
10 8 10
=- +2=
9 9
s 2 is the variance, then by Quick Look 2
Answer: (A)
s 2 + m 2 = å x2 P ( X = x)
88. The range of a random variable is the set of all natural
numbers and l is a positive constant. If = 12 (K ) + 22 (2 K ) + 32 (3K ) + 42 (4 K )
100
lk = 100 K = = 10
P( X = k ) = (k = 1, 2, 3, …) 10
k
Therefore
then l equals
s 2 = 10 - 32 = 1
1 1
(A) loge 2 (B) loge 3 (C) (D) loge 3 Answer: (B)
2 2
Solution: We have 90. Let X be a binomial variate with parameters n and p.
¥
If the mean is 20 and variance is 15, then p is equal to
l l2 l3
å
K =1
P ( X = K ) = 1 Þ
1
+
2
+
3
++ ¥ = 1
(A)
1
(B)
1
(C)
1
(D)
3
3 4 2 4
536 Chapter 7 Probability

Solution: Mean m = np and variance s 2 = npq 93. X is a Poisson variate such that
(see Theorem 7.10). Therefore
2
P( X = 2) = P( X = 1)
np = m = 20 3
and 15 = npq then P(X = 3) is
Solving we get 34 -3/ 4 36 -4 / 3
(A) e (B) e
81 81
15 = 20 q
32 -4 / 3 36 -3/ 4
3 (C) e (D) e
Þq= 81 81
4
Solution: Let m be the parameter of the Poisson distri-
3 1
Þ p=1- q =1- = bution. Then
4 4
e- m mk
Answer: (B) P( X = k ) =
k
91. X is a binomial variate with mean 10 and variance 5.
Then the number of trials is equal to Hence
(A) 10 (B) 15 (C) 20 (D) 16 2
P ( X = 2) = P( X = 1)
3
Solution: Let n be the number of trial and p the prob-
ability of a success. Then by Theorem 7.10 e- m × m2 2 - m
Þ = e ×m
2 3
10 = np, 5 = npq
4
Hence Þm=
3
1
5 = 10q Þ q = and so
2
1 e-4 / 3 (4 / 3)3 64 -4 / 3 32 -4 / 3
and p=1- q = P( X = 3) = = e = e
2 3 27 ´ 6 81

So Answer: (C)

æ 1ö 94. The probability that a candidate securing admis-

10 = np = n ç ÷ sion in IIT through entrance test is 1/10. Seven
è 2ø
candidates are selected at random from a centre.
Þ n = 20 The probability that two will get admission in IIT
Answer: (C) through entrance test is
(A) 20(0.1)2 (0.9)5 (B) 15(0.1)2 (0.9)5
92. X is a Poisson variate such that P(X = 1) = p(X = 2),
(C) 21(0.1)2 (0.9)5 (D) 2(0.1)2 (0.9)5
then the parameter m is equal to
1 1 Solution: Let
(A) 2 (B) 3 (C) (D)
2 3 1
p = Probability of success = = 0.1
Solution: By hypothesis (Section 7.6.2) 10
q = Probability of failure = 1 - 0.1 = 0.9
-m mk
P( X = k ) = e
k
P( X = 2) = Probability of 2 success and 5 failures
By hypothesis
-m -m 2
= 7C2 (0.1)2 (0.9)5 (Deefinition 7.18)
e m e m
= = 21(0.1)2 (0.9)5
1 2
Answer: (C)
Therefore
95. A person has three coins A, B and C in his pocket
m=2 out of which A is a fair coin. The probability of B
Answer: (A) showing head is 2/3 and that of C is 1/3. He selected
 Worked-Out Problems 537

one of the coins at random and tossed it three times 97. The probability of a coin showing head is p. 100 coins
and observed 2 heads and 1 tail. The probability that are tossed at a time. If the probability of 50 coins
the selected coin is A is showing heads is same as 51 coins showing heads,
7 18 9 16 then the value of p is
(A) (B) (C) (D)
25 25 25 25 49 51 1 49
(A) (B) (C) (D)
100 101 2 101
Solution: Let A, B and C denote the events of selecting
the coins A, B and C, respectively, so that Solution: By hypothesis,

P( A) = P( B) = P(C ) =
1 100
C50 p50 q50 = 100C51 p51 q49
3
where q = 1 - p. Therefore
Let E be the event of getting 2 heads and 1 tail. Hence by
the binomial distribution we have 100 100
(q) = ( p)
50 50 51 49
2
æ 1ö æ 1ö 3
P(E / A) = 3C2 ç ÷ ç ÷ = q p
è 2ø è 2ø 8 =
50 51
2
æ 2 ö æ 1ö 4 51q = 50 p
P(E / B) = C2 ç ÷ ç ÷ =
3
è 3 ø è 3ø 9
51(1 - p) = 50 p
2
æ 1ö æ 2 ö 2 51
P ( E /C ) = 3 C2 ç ÷ ç ÷ = p=
è 3ø è 3ø 9 101
Therefore by Bayes’ theorem Answer: (B)

P( A)P(E / A) 98. In an experiment, the odds in favour of success

P( A / E ) =
P( A)P(E / A) + P( B)P(E / B) + P(C )P(E /C ) are 2 :1. In six trials, the probability of at least five
success is
1 3
´ 240 256 496 396
= 3 8 (A) (B) (C) (D)
1 3 1 4 1 2 729 729 729 729
´ + ´ + ´
3 8 3 9 3 9 Solution: Let X denote the number of successes. Then
3 X is a binomial variate with
= 8
2
3 4 2
+ + p(probability of success) =
8 9 9 3
27 9 1
= = q =1- p=
75 25 3
Answer: (C) Then

96. A man takes a step forward with probability 0.4 and P(at least five successes) = P( X = 5) + P( X = 6)
a step backward with probability 0.6. After 11 steps, 5 6 0
æ 2 ö æ 1ö æ 2 ö æ 1ö
the probability that he is one step away from the = 6C5 ç ÷ ç ÷ + 6C6 ç ÷ ç ÷
è 3 ø è 3ø è 3 ø è 3ø
starting point is
(A) 462 ´ (0.24)5 (B) 462 ´ (0.25)5 6 ´ 32 64 256
= + =
(C) 362 ´ (0.24)5 (D) 362 ´ (0.25)5 729 729 729
Answer: (B)
Solution: One step away means, six forward and five
backward steps or six backward and five forward steps. 99. A book writer writes a good book with probability
Therefore 1/2. If it is a good book, the probability that it will
P(one step away) = C6 (0.4) (0.6) + C6 (0.6) (0.4)
11 6 5 11 6 5 be published is 2/3, otherwise it is 1/4. If he writes
2 books, the probability that at least one book will
= 11C6 (0.4)5 (0.6)5 (0.4 + 0.6) be published is
= 462 ´ (0.24)5 407 411 405 307
(A) (B) (C) (D)
Answer: (A) 576 576 576 576
538 Chapter 7 Probability

Solution: Let 15 6 1
= + +
G = Event of good book 64 64 64
G ¢ = Event of not a good book 22 11
= =
E = Event of publication 64 32
Then Answer: (D)

E = (G È G¢) Ç E = (G Ç E) È (G¢ Ç E) 101. If on average 1 ship in every 10 is wrecked, then out

of 5 ships expected to reach the shore, the prob-
Now
ability that 4 at least will arrive safely is
2 (A) 0.9 (B) 0.905 (C) 0.891 (D) 0.99
P(E /G) =
3 Solution: Let p be the probability of safe arrival and q
1 be the probability of wreck. By hypothesis
P ( E /G ¢ ) =
4 1 1 9
q= and p=1- =
1 10 10 10
P(G) = = P(G¢)
2
Let X denote the number of ships arriving safely. Now,
Therefore
P(at least four safe arrivals) = P( X = 4) + P( X = 5)
1 2 1 1 11
P(E ) = ´ + ´ = 4
æ 9ö æ 1ö
2 3 2 4 24 = 5 C4 ç ÷ ç ÷
è 10 ø è 10 ø
Further, X denotes the number of books published. Then 5 0
æ 9ö æ 1ö
P(at least one book will be published) = P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + 5 C5 ç ÷ ç ÷
è 10 ø è 10 ø
2 0
æ 11 ö æ 13 ö æ 11 ö æ 13 ö 94 95
= 2C1 ç ÷ ç ÷ + 2C2 ç ÷ ç ÷ =5´ +
è 24 ø è 24 ø è 24 ø è 24 ø 105 105
11 13 æ 11 ö
2 5 ´ 6561 59049
=2´ ´ +ç ÷ = +
24 24 è 24 ø 105 105
91854
407 =
= 10 ´ 104
576
Answer: (A) 45927
=
50000
100. A fair coin is tossed 6 times. The probability of = 0.905
getting at least four heads is Answer: (B)
21 19 13 11
(A) (B) (C) (D)
32 32 32 32 102. An electrical bulb manufacturing company supplies
bulbs to a firm. It is known that 1 bulb out of every
Solution: With a fair coin, 10 is defective. If 8 bulbs of the company are
Probability of getting head = Probability of getting tail selected at random, the probability that the selec-
tion contains 5 good and 3 defective bulbs is
1
= 56 ´ 95 44 ´ 95
2 (A) (B)
108 108
Let X be the number of heads. Now 46 ´ 95 54 ´ 95
(C) (D)
P(getting at least four heads) = P( X = 4) + P( X = 5) 108 108

+ P( X = 6) Solution: We have
9
p = Probability for a good bulb =
4 2 5 6 0
æ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö
= 6 C 4 ç ÷ ç ÷ + 6 C 5 ç ÷ ç ÷ + 6 C6 ç ÷ ç ÷ 10
è 2ø è 2ø è 2ø è 2ø è 2ø è 2ø
1
q = Probability for a defective bulb =
10
 Worked-Out Problems 539

Let X denote the number of good bulbs out of 8. Then 3 3

(C) 1 + (D) 1 -
5 3 e2 e2
æ 9ö æ 1ö
P( X = 5) = 8C5 ç ÷ ç ÷ Solution: We know that
è 10 ø è 10 ø
¥

=
56 ´ 95 å P( X = k ) = 1
k =0
108
Answer: (A)
¥
e-2 2k
Þå =1
k =0 k
103. A random variable X has Poisson distribution such
that P(X = 1) = P(X = 2). If m and s 2 are the mean Therefore
and variance of the distribution, then
æ 2 22 ö
m å P( X ³ 3) = 1 - e -2
çè 1 + +
1 2 ÷ø
=
s2
5
1 =1-
(A) 2 (B) (C) 1 (D) 2 e2
2 Answer: (B)
Solution: Let l be the parameter of X
X. By hypothesis
105. If the mean of a Poisson distribution is 1/2 then the
P( X = 1) = P( X = 2) ratio of P(X = 3) is to P(X = 2) is
-l
e l e l
1 -l 2 (A) 1: 6 (B) 1: 8 (C) 1: 4 (D) 1: 2
Þ =
1 2 Solution: For a Poisson distribution, the mean is equal
to the parameter. Hence the parameter is 1/2. Now,
Þl=2
e-1/ 2 (1/ 2)3
For a Poisson distribution, mean and variance are equal P( X = 3) =
(see Theorem 7.11) 3

l 2 e-1/ 2 (1/ 2)2

= =1 P( X = 2) =
s2 2 2
Answer: (C) Therefore

104. A random variable X has Poisson distribution with 1 1

P( X = 3): P( X = 2) = :
parameter 2. Then P(X ³ 3) is 48 8
5 5 = 1: 6
(A) 1 + (B) 1 -
e2 e2 Answer: (A)

Multiple Correct Choice Type Questions

1. A and B are two events of a random experiment such 1 - P( A È B)
that P(A) > 0 and P(B) ¹ 1. Then P( A / B) equals =
P( B)
(A) 1 - P( A / B) (B) 1 - P( A / B)
Therefore (D) is correct. Also,
1 - P( A È B)
(C) 1 - P( A / B) (D) P( A Ç B) P( A Ç B)
P( B) P( A / B) + P( A / B) = +
P( B) P( B)
Solution: We have
P(( A È A) Ç B)
=
P( A Ç B) P( B)
P( A / B) =
P( B)
P( B)
= =1
P( A È B) P( B)
=
P( B)
540 Chapter 7 Probability

This implies Solution: Mutually exclusive events means one event

prevents the other. Hence they are dependent events.
P( A / B) = 1 - P( A / B) Now E and F are independent events implies that
So (B) is correct. P(E / F ) = P(E )
Answers: (B), (D)
Þ P(E Ç F ) = P(E )P(F ) (7.17)
2. If M and N are two events, then the probability of Now
exactly one of them occurs is
(A) P(M) + P(N) N - 2P(M Ç N) N P (E Ç F )
P (E / F ) =
(B) P(M) + P(N)
N - P(M Ç N) N P (F )
(C) P(M ) + P( N ) - 2 P(M Ç N ) P (E - F )
=
(D) P(M Ç N ) + P(M Ç N ) P(F )
Solution: We have P(E ) - P(E Ç F )
=
P(exactly one of M and N occurs) P(F )

= P ( M DN ) P ( E ) - P ( E )P (F )
= [ From Eq. (7.17)]
P(F )
= P((M - N ) È ( N - M ))
= P(M - N ) + P(N
N - M) P(E)(1 - P(F ))
=
P(F )
= P(M ) - P(M Ç N ) + P( N ) - P(M Ç N )
P ( E )P (F )
[part (2), Theorem 7.2] = = P(E )
P(F )
= P(M ) + P( N ) - 2P(M Ç N )
Hence (B) is correct.
Hence (A) is correct. Also, (C) follows from (B) and so (C) is correct. Now,
P(M Ç N ) + P(M Ç N ) = P(M - N ) + P( N - M ) P (E Ç F ) P (E Ç F )
P (E / F ) + P (E / F ) = +
= P(M DN ) P(F ) P(F )

So (D) is correct. Again P((E È E) Ç F )

=
P(F )
P (M ) + P ( N ) - 2 P (M Ç N )
P(F )
= 1 - P(M ) + 1 - P( N ) - 2 P(M È N ) = =1
P(F )
= 2 - P(M ) - P( N ) - 2[1 - P(M È N )]
So (D) is correct.
= - P(M ) - P(N ) + 2[ P(M ) + P( N ) - P(M Ç N )] Answers: (B), (C), (D)
= P (M ) + P ( N ) - 2 P (M Ç N )
4. A bag contains 9 coins of which 3 are fair, 2 are
= P(M - N ) + P( N - M ) two headed and 4 are two tailed coins. Define the
following events,
Hence (C) is correct.
A: Drawing a fair coin
Answers: (A), (C), (D) B: Drawing two headed coin
C: Drawing coin having tails on both sides
3. If E and F are independent events such that 0 < P(E), E: Drawn coin showing tail
F < 1, then
P(F)
Then,
(A) E and F are mutually exclusive
1 4
(B) E and F are mutually independent (A) P( A Ç E) = (B) P(C Ç E) =
6 9
(C) E and F are mutually independent 1 8
(C) P(E) = (D) P(C/ E) =
(D) P(E / F ) + P(E / F ) = 1 3 11
 Worked-Out Problems 541

Solution: We have 1 - P( A È B)
=
3 1 1 - P( A)
P( A) = =
9 3 1 - P( A È B)
=
1 1 - (0.4)
P(E / A) =
2 1 - P( A È B)
=
Therefore 0.6

1 1 1 Therefore
P(E Ç A) = ´ =
3 2 6 P( A È B) = 1 - (0.6)(0.6)
So (A) is correct. Now = 1 - 0.36 = 0.64
4 So (A) is correct. Now
P(C ) = and P(E /C ) = 1
9
P( A Ç B) = P( A)P( B / A)
Therefore
= (0.4)(0.9) = 0.36
4 4
P(C Ç E) = ´ 1 = Hence (B) is correct. Again
9 9
So (B) is correct. Now the event E is given by 0.64 = P( A È B)
= P( A) + P( B) - P( A Ç B)
E = ( A È C ) Ç E = ( A Ç E) È (C Ç E)
= 0.4 + P( B) - (0.36)
Therefore
Therefore
P(E) = P( A Ç E) + P(C Ç E)
P( B) = 1 - (0.4) = 0.6
1 4 11
= + =
6 9 18 Given P(B) we have
P( A Ç B)
P( A / B) =
P( B)
P(C Ç E)
P(C/ E) =
P(E ) 0.36
= = 0.6
0.6
4 11 8
= ¸ =
9 18 11 So (C) is correct. Again

So (D) is correct. P( A Ç B)
P( A / B) =
Answers: (A), (B), (D) P( B)
P( A) - P( A Ç B)
5. A, B are two events with positive probabilities. If =
P(A) = 0.4, P( B / A) = 0.9, P( B / A) = 0.6, then 1 - P( B)

(A) P(A È B) = 0.64 (B) P(A Ç B) = 0.36 0.4 - (0.36)

=
1 - (0.61)
(C) P( A / B) = 0.6 (D) P( A / B) = 0.2
0.044
Solution: We have = = 0.1
0.4
0.6 = P( B / A) Here we have used A = ( A Ç B) È ( A Ç B). This implies
P( B Ç A) (D) is not correct.
= Answers: (A), (B), (C)
P( A)
P( A È B) 6. Two fair dice are thrown. Let A be the event of both
=
P( A) faces are even numbers and B the event of sum of the
faces is 10. Then
542 Chapter 7 Probability

1 1
(A) P( A) = (C) P(C Ç A) =
4 10
1 37
(B) P( B) = (D) P( A È B È C ) =
18 50
1 Solution: We have
(C) P( A Ç B) =
18 Number of even numbers £ 100 is equal to 50.
2 Number of multiples of 3 £ 100 is 33.
(D) P(exactly one of A and B) =
9
Number of multiples of 5 £ 100 is 20.
Solution: For the event A, the favourable cases are Number of common multiples of 2 and 3 is 16.
(2, 2), (2, 4), (2, 6), Number of common multiples of 3 and 5 is 6.
(4, 2), (4, 4), (4, 6), Number of common multiples of 2 and 5 is 10.
(6, 2), (6, 4), (6, 6) Number of common multiples of 2, 3 and 5 is 3.
Therefore Now,
9 1 50 33 20
P( A) = = P( A) = , P( B) = , P(C ) =
36 4 100 100 100
Hence (A) is correct. For the event B, the favourable 16 6 10
cases are (4, 6), (5, 5) and (6, 4). Therefore P( A Ç B) = , P( B Ç C ) = , P(C Ç A) =
100 100 100
3 1 Also
P( B) = =
36 12
P( A È B È C )
So (B) is not correct. Now
= P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) - P( A Ç B) - P( B Ç C )
A Ç B = {(4, 6), (6, 4)}
- P(C Ç A) + P( A Ç B Ç C )
This implies
50 33 20 16 6 10 3
= + + - - - +
2 1 1000 100 100 100 100 100 100
P( A Ç B) = =
36 18 106 - 32 74 37
= = =
So (C) is correct. Finally 100 100 50

P(exactly one of A and B is correct) Hence all (A), (B), (C) and (D) are correct.
Answers: (A), (B), (C), (D)
= P(( A - B) È ( B - A))

= P( A - B) + P( B - A) 8. A and B are two among 10 students from which

3 students are to be selected at random to form a
7 1 8 2
= + = = committee. Then,
36 36 36 9
3
(A) Probability that A belongs to the committee is .
So (D) is correct. 10
Answers: (A), (C), (D) (B) Probability that A and B belong to the committee
1
is .
7. A natural number is selected at random from the 15
first 100 natural numbers. Let A, B and C denote the (C) Probability that either A or B belong to the
events of selection of even number, a multiple of 3 8
and a multiple of 5, respectively. Then committee is .
15
4
(A) P( A Ç B) = (D) Probability that exactly one of A and B belongs
25 7
to the committee is .
3 15
(B) P( B Ç C ) =
50
 Worked-Out Problems 543

Solution: Let A and B denote the events “A belongs Solution: Since there are 4 even numbers among
to the committee” and “B belongs to the committee,” 1 to 9, it follows that
respectively. Then
4
9
P(E / H ) =
C 36 3 9
P( A) = 10 2 = =
C3 120 10
Again, since there are 2 even numbers among 1 to 5, it
3 follows that
P( B) =
10 2
P(E /T ) =
8
C1 8 1 5
P( A Ç B) = 10
= =
C3 120 15 Therefore (A) and (B) are correct. Now,
Now
E = ( H È T ) Ç E = ( H Ç E) È (T Ç E)
P( A È B) = P( A) + P( B) - P( A Ç B)
This implies
3 3 1 16 8
= + - = = P(E) = P( H Ç E ) + P(T Ç E )
10 10 15 30 10
= P( H )(E / H ) + P(T )P(E /T ) (Theorem 7.3)
So
2 4 1 2 58
P(exactly one of A and B) = P(( A - B) È ( B - A)) = ´ + ´ =
3 9 3 5 135
= P( A - B) + P( B - A)
So (C) is correct. By Bayes’ theorem,
8 8
C C
= 10 2 + 10 2 P ( H )P (E / H )
C3 C3 P( H / E ) =
P( H )P(E / H ) + P(T )P(E /T )
28 28
= + 2 4
´
120 120 3 9
=
56 2 4 1 2
= ´ + ´
120 3 9 3 5
8 135 20
=
7 = ´ =
15 277 58 29

Hence all (A), (B), (C) and (D) are correct. Hence (D) is correct.
Answers: (A), (B), (C), (D) Answers: (A), (B), (C), (D)

10. G1 and G2 are two groups of students. G1 consists of

9. A coin is so weighted such that the probability of it
showing H (Head) is 2/3 and that of T (Tail) is 1/3 4 boys and 3 girls. G2 consists of 3 boys and 3 girls. Let
when it is tossed. If head appears, then a number from p1 be the probability of arranging the boys and girls
the first 9 naturals is selected at random, otherwise a of G1 alternately. p1¢ is the probability of arranging
number from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 will be selected. Let E be the the boys and girls of G1 such that all the 4 boys are
event of getting an even number. Then, together and all the 3 girls together. p2 is the prob-
ability of arranging boys and girls of G2 alternately.
4 p2¢ is the probability of arranging boys and girls of G2
(A) P(E / H ) =
9 such that no two boys and no of two girls are sepa-
2 rated. Then,
(B) P(E /T ) =
5 1 2
(A) p1 = (B) p1¢ =
58 35 35
(C) P(E) =
135 1 1
(C) p2 = (D) p2¢ =
20 10 20
(D) P( H / E) =
29 Solution: Since number of boys is greater than number
of girls, they can be arranged alternately only when the
544 Chapter 7 Probability

first place is occupied by a boy (example BG BG BG B P( A) + P( B) - 1

where B stands for boy and G for girl). Therefore ³ [∵ P( A È B) £ 1]
P( B)
4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1
p1 = × × × × × × = Hence (A) is correct. Again
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 35
A = ( A - B) È ( A Ç B)
Therefore (A) is correct. Since boys are together and
girls are together (example b1, b2, b3, b4, g1, g2, g3), we Þ P( A) = P( A - B) + P( A Ç B)
consider all the 4 boys as a single object and all the 3 girls
as a single object. Two objects can be arranged in 2 Þ P( A - B) = P( A) - P( A Ç B)
ways. In each of these arrangements boys can be inter-
Þ P( A Ç B) = P( A) - P( A Ç B)
changed among themselves in 4 ways and girls can be
interchanged among themselves in 3 ways. Therefore A and B are independent,
the number of arrangements of boys and girls satisfying then so are A and B and hence
the condition is 2 ´ 4 ´ 3. So
P( A Ç B) = P( A)P( B)
2´ 4´ 3 2´6 2
p1¢ = = =
7 5 ´ 6 ´ 7 35 Therefore

Hence (B) is correct. Number of arrangements of boys P( A È B) = 1 - P( A È B)

and girls alternately (example: bgbgbg or gbgbgb)
= 2 ´ 3 ´ 3. Therefore = 1 - P( A Ç B)

2 ´ 3 ´ 3 72 1 = 1 - P( A)P( B)
p2 = = =
6 720 10 Consider the following example which shows P(AÈB) ¹
Hence (C) is correct. Finally 1 - P( A)P( B) when A Ç B = f.
Let S be the sample space obtained when a fair die
2´ 3´ 3 1 is rolled so that S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let A = {1, 3, 5} and
p2¢ = =
6 10 B = {2, 4, 6} so that A Ç B = f and P(A È B) = P(S) = 1.
But
(Example: b1b2b3g1g2g3 or g1g2g3b1b2b3.) Therefore (D) is
1
not correct. P( A) = P( B) = = P( A) = P( B)
2
Answers: (A), (B), (C)
Therefore
11. Let A and B be any two events in a sample space.
Then 1 1
1 - P( A)P( B) = 1 - ´
(A) When P(B) ¹ 0, 2 2
3
P( A) + P( B) - 1 =
P( A / B) ³ 4
P( B)
¹ P( A È B)
is always true
(B) P( A Ç B) = P( A) - P( A Ç B) is always true Hence (D) is not correct.
Answers: (A), (B), (C)
(C) P( A È B) = 1 - P( A)P( B) if A and B are
independent 12. A and B are two random events such that 0 < P(A) < 1
(D) P( A È B) = 1 - P( A)P( B) if A and B are and 0 < P(B) < 1. Then which of the following are
disjoint. true?
Solution: We have (A) P(A/B) > P(A) Þ P(B/A/ ) > P(B)

P( A Ç B) (B) P( B / A) + P( B / A) = 1
P( A / B) =
P( B) (C) P( A / B) = P( A / B) only when A Ç B = f
P( A) + P( B) - P( A È B) (D) P( B / A) = P( B / A) only when A and B are
=
P( B) independent
 Worked-Out Problems 545

Solution: Suppose (C) is also false for which consider the same sample space:
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and let A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {2, 3, 5}.
P( A / B) > P( A) Then
P( A Ç B)
Þ > P( A) 2
P( B) P( A / B) =
3
P( A Ç B)
Þ > P( B) [∵ 0 < P( A), P( B)] P( A / B) =
2
P( A) 3
Þ P( B / A) > P( B)
but A Ç B ¹ f. Finally
So (A) is correct. We now show that (B) is false. P( B / A) = P( B / A)
Consider the following example: Let S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
which is obtained by rolling a fair die. Let A = {2, 6} and P( A Ç B) P( B Ç A)
Û =
B = {2, 3, 5}. Then P( A) P( A)
1 Û [1 - P( A)]P( A Ç B) = P( A)P( B Ç A)
P( A / B) =
3 Û [1 - P( A)]P( A Ç B) = P( A)[ P( B) - P( A Ç B)]
1
P( A / B) = Û P( A Ç B) = P( A)P( B)
3
Û A and B are independent events
so that
Hence (D) is correct.
2
P( A / B) + P( A / B) = ¹ 1 Answers: (A), (D)
3

Matrix-Match Type Questions

1. A man will live 10 more years for which the prob- (B) We have
ability is 1/3 and the probability that his wife will live
10 more years is 1/4. Match the items of Column I with P( H È W ) = P( H ) + P(W ) - P( H Ç W )
those of Column II. 1 1 1
= + -
3 4 12
Column I Column II
6 1
1 = =
(A) Probability that both wife and (p) 12 2
husband will live 10 more years is 2
Answer: (B) Æ (p)
3
(q) (C) We have
(B) Probability that at least one of them 4
will live 10 more years is 1 P( H Ç W ) = P( H È W )
(r)
4
(C) Probability that neither will be alive 1 = 1 - P( H È W )
in 10 more years is (s)
12 1 1
2 =1- =
(D) Probability that only husband will (t) 2 2
live 10 more years is 3 Answer: (C) Æ (p)
We have that since H , W are independent
Solution: Let H be the event that husband will live 10 more
years and W be the event that wife will live 10 more years. P( H Ç W ) = P( H )P(W )
(A) We have that since H and W are independent 1 æ 1ö 1
= ´ ç1 - ÷=
P( H Ç W ) = P( H )P(W ) 3 è 4ø 4
1 1 1 Answer: (D) Æ (r)
= ´ =
3 4 12
Answer: (A) Æ (s)
546 Chapter 7 Probability

2. In a class, there are 10 boys and 5 girls. Three students 3. A and B are two events with P(A) = 1/3, P(B) = 1/4
are selected one after other without allowing the and P(A È B) = 1/2. Match the items of Column I
earlier selected student to join the class. Match the with those of Column II.
items of Column I with the items of Column II.
Column I Column II
Column I Column II
1
9 (A) P(A/B) is equal to (p)
(A) The probability that the first two (p) 3
are boys and the third a girl is 13 1
3 (B) P(B/A
/ ) equals (q)
(B) The probability that first and third
T (q) 4
are boys and the second a girl is 7 1
5 (C) The value of P( A Ç B) is (r)
(C) The probability that first and third (r) 2
are of same sex and the second is of 21 2
(D) P( A / B) is equal to (s)
opposite sex is 3
15
(D) If the first and third are of same sex (s)
and the second is of opposite sex, 91 Solution: We have
then probability that the second
1
student is girl is = P( A È B)
2
Solution: Let b and g denote boy and girl, respectively. = P( A) + P( B) - P( A Ç B)
(A) The probability that the first two are boys and the 1 1
third a girl is = + - P( A Ç B)
3 4
10 9 5 15 Therefore
P(bbg ) = ´ ´ =
15 14 13 91
1 1 1
Answer: (A) Æ (s) P( A Ç B) = + -
3 4 2
The probability that first and third are boys and the
second a girl is 4+3-6 1
= =
12 12
10 5 9 15
P(bgb) = ´ ´ =
15 14 13 91 (A) We have
Answer: (B) Æ (s) P( A Ç B) 1 1 1
P( A / B) = = ¸ =
(C) The probability that first and third are of same sex P( B) 12 4 3
and the second is of opposite sex is
Answer: (A) Æ (p)
P ((bgb) È ( gbg )) = P(bgb) + P( gbg ) (B) We have
15 5 10 4 P( B Ç A) 1 1 1
= + ´ ´ P( B / A) = = ¸ =
91 15 14 13 P( A) 12 3 4
15 20 Answer: (B) Æ (q)
= +
91 3 ´ 91
(C) We have
65 5
= =
3 ´ 91 21 P( A Ç B) = P( A - B)
Answer: (C) Æ (r) = P( A) - P( A Ç B)
Let E1 = (bgb) È (gbg) and E2 = bgb. Then
1 1
= -
P(E2 ) 3 12
P(E2 / E1 ) =
P(E1 )
3 1
= =
15 21 9 12 4
= ´ =
91 5 13 Answer: (C) Æ (q)
Answer: (D) Æ (p)
 Worked-Out Problems 547

(D) We have 2 5
´
= 3 16
P( A Ç B)
P( A / B) = 2 5 1 3
´ + ´
P( B) 3 16 3 8
1/ 4 1 10 5
= = = =
1 - (1/ 4) 3 10 + 6 8
Answer: (D) Æ (p)
Answer: (D) Æ (p)
4. Bag X contains 5 red, 3 white and 8 black balls. Bag Y
contains 3 red and 5 white balls. A fair die is tossed. If 5. , B and C are three students of Mathematics. Each
2 or 5 appears a ball from bag Y is chosen, otherwise a is given two problems in probability. Their chances
ball from bag X is chosen. Match the items of Column I of solving the problems are, respectively, 1/2, 1/3
with those of Column II. Here R, W and B denote and 1/6. They try independently. Let A1, A2, B1, B2,
drawing red ball, white ball and black ball, respectively. C1, C2 denote the events of their solving the first and
second problems. Match the items of Column I with
those of Column II.
Column I Column II
5 Column I Column II
/X) =
(A) P(R/X (p)
8
1
3 (A) P(A1 Ç B2) (p)
Y =
(B) P(R/Y) (q) 4
16
1
3 (B) P(C1 Ç A2) (q)
W/X) =
(C) P(W/ (r) 6
8
1
5 (r)
X R) =
(D) P(X/ (s) 12
16 (C) P(B1 Ç C2)
1
(s)
Solution: We have 18
1
4 2 (D) P(A1 Ç A2) (t)
P( X ) = = 36
6 3
2 1 Solution:
P(Y ) = =
6 3 (A) The required probability is
(A) The required probability is P( A1 Ç B2 ) = P( A1 )P( B2 )
5 1 1 1
P(R / X ) = = ´ =
16 2 3 6
Answer: (A) Æ (s) Answer: (A) Æ (q)
(B) The required probability is (B) The required probability is
3 P(C1 Ç A2 ) = P(C1 )P( A2 )
P ( R /Y ) =
18
1 1 1
Answer: (B) Æ (r) = ´ =
6 2 12
(C) The required probability is
Answer: (B) Æ (r)
3 (C) The required probability is
P(W / X ) =
16
Answer: (C) Æ (q) P( B1 Ç C2 ) = P( B1 )P(C2 )
(D) By Bayes’ theorem, 1 1 1
= ´ =
3 6 18
P ( X )P (R / X )
P( X / R) = Answer: (C) Æ (s)
P( X )P(R / X ) + P(Y )P(R /Y )
548 Chapter 7 Probability

(E) The required probability is æ 3ö æ 1ö

0 5
æ 3ö æ 1ö
1
æ 3ö æ 1ö
4 2 3

= 5C0 ç ÷ ç ÷ + 5C1 ç ÷ ç ÷ + 5C2 ç ÷ ç ÷

P( A1 Ç A2 ) = P( A1 )P( A2 ) è 4ø è 4ø è 4ø è 4ø è 4ø è 4ø
5
1 1 1 æ 1ö 5 ´ 3 10 ´ 9
= ´ = =ç ÷ + 5 +
2 2 4 è 4ø 4 45
Answer: (D) Æ (p) 106
=
45
6. The probability that a person can hit a target is 3/4.
53
He tries 5 times. Let X denote binomial variate with =
parameters n = 5 and p = 3 / 4, q = 1/ 4. Match the items 512
of Column I with those of Column II.
Answer: (A) Æ (r)
(B) The required probability is
Column I Column II
P( X ³ 3) = 1 - P( X £ 2)
459
(A) P(X £ 2) (p) 106
512 =1-
15 45
(B) P(X ³ 3) (q)
16 1024 - 106
=
53 1024
(C) Mean of X (r)
512 918
15 =
(D) Variance of X (s) 1024
4 459
=
512
Solution: By hypothesis
Answer: (B) Æ (p)
P( X = k ) = 5Ck pk q5 - k (C) Mean is given by
k 5- k
æ 3ö æ 1ö 3 15
= 5 Ck ç ÷ ç ÷ np = 5 ´ =
è 4ø è 4ø 4 4
for k = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Answer: (C) Æ (s)
(A) The required probability is (D) Variance is given by

P( X £ 2) = P( X = 0) + P( X = 1) + P( X = 2) 3 1 15
npq = 5 ´ ´ =
4 4 16
Answer: (D) Æ (q)

Comprehension-Type Questions
1. Passage: We consider a two-player game in which 2 7 2 1
there is always a winner. A, B and C are three players. (A) (B) (C) (D)
9 9 3 3
2
If A plays B, then the probability of A beating B is . (ii) When B plays C, the winner plays A. Then, the
3 probability that A is the final winner is
2 2 5 7 4
If B plays C, then the probability of B beating C is . (A) (B) (C) (D)
3 9 9 9 9
2
If C plays A, then the probability of C beating A is . (iii) When C plays A, the winner plays B. Then, the
3
probability that A is the final winner is
Answer the following questions:
5 4 2 7
(i) When A plays B, the winner plays C. Then, the (A) (B) (C) (D)
9 9 9 9
probability that A is the final winner is
 Worked-Out Problems 549

Solution: Therefore
(i) First, A must beat B and then A must beat C. The 4 1
probability that A is the final winner is = 1 + P( B) Þ P( B) =
3 3
2 1 2 Answer: (B)
´ =
3 3 9 (ii) The required probability is
Answer: (A)
P( A Ç B)
(ii) Whether B beats C or C beats B, the winner must P( A / B) =
P( B)
lose to A. Therefore
Probability (A is final winner) P( A)P( B)
=
= P(B beats C and loses to A) P( B)
+ P(C
C beats B and loses to A) 1
= P( A) =
2 2 1 1 5 2
= ´ + ´ =
3 3 3 3 9 Answer: (D)
Answer: (B) (iii) A and B are independent. This implies A and B are
(iii) First, A must beat C and then A must beat B. The also independent. So
probability that A is the final winner is
P( B Ç A)
P( B / A) =
1 2 2 P( A)
´ =
3 3 9
P( B)P( A)
Answer: (C) =
P( A)

2. Passage: A and B are independent events with = P( B)

1 2 = 1 - P( B)
P( A) = and P( A È B) =
2 3 1 2
= 1- =
Answer the following questions. 3 3
(i) P(B) is equal to Answer: (B)
1 1 2 1
(A) (B) (C) (D) 3. Passage: A box contains 3 coins out of which two are
2 3 3 4
fair coins and the third is a two headed coin. A coin
(ii) P(A/B) equals is selected at random and tossed. If head appears, the
3 2 1 1 same coin is tossed again. If tail appears, another is
(A) (B) (C) (D) selected from the remaining two coins and tossed.
4 3 3 2
Answer the following questions.
(iii) P( B / A) is equal to (i) The probability that head appears twice is
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D) (A) (B) (C) (D)
2 3 3 5 2 3 3 4

Solution: (ii) If the same is tossed twice, then the probability

that it is a two headed coin is
(i) We have
1 1 2 1
2 (A) (B) (C) (D)
= P( A È B) 3 2 3 3
3
(iii) The probability that tail appears twice is
= P( A) + P( B) - P( A Ç B)
2 1 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
1 1 3 3 12 4
= + P( B) - P( B)
2 2
Solution: Let E1 be the event of selecting fair coin and
1 1 E2 be the event of selecting two headed coin. Hj denotes
= + P( B)
2 2 head and Tj denotes tail where j = 1, 2.
550 Chapter 7 Probability

(i) We have (ii) The probability of A winning first set 6-1 is

H1 Ç H2 = (E1 Ç H1 Ç H2 ) È (E2 Ç H1 Ç H2 ) 40 40 20 32
(A) (B) (C) (D)
37 36 37 37
Then
(iii) The probability of B winning the first set 6-1 is
P( H1 Ç H2 ) = P(E1 Ç H1 Ç H2 ) + P(E2 Ç H1 Ç H2 ) 20 20 40 4
(A) 6 (B) 7 (C) 6 (D) 6
2 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3
= ´ ´ + ´1´1=
3 2 2 3 2
Solution:
Answer: (A)
(i) “A” wins the set at 6-0 means A has to win all his
(ii) Let E be the event of the same coin being tossed
3 service games and B has to lose all his 3 service
twice. Then
games. Therefore the probability is
E = (E1 Ç H ) È E2 3 3 3
æ 2 ö æ 1ö 2
çè ÷ø çè ÷ø =
Therefore 3 3 36
P(E) = P(E1 Ç H ) + P(E2 ) Answer: (C)
2 1 1 2 (ii) Probability of A winning by 6-1 is
= ´ + =
3 2 3 3 4 2 3 3
æ 2 ö æ 2 ö æ 1ö æ 1 ö æ 2 ö æ 1 ö 40
3
C1 ç ÷ ç ÷ ç ÷ + 3C1 ç ÷ ç ÷ ç ÷ = 6
Now è 3 ø è 3 ø è 3ø è 3ø è 3 ø è 3ø 3
P(E2 )P( H / E2 ) Answer: (B)
P(E2 / E) =
P(E1 )P( H / E1 ) + P(E2 ) (iii) Probability of B winning the first set by 6-1 is
1 3 3
æ 2 ö æ 2 ö æ 1ö æ 1 ö æ 2 ö æ 1 ö 20
2 4
´1 3
C1 ç ÷ ç ÷ ç ÷ + 3C1 ç ÷ ç ÷ ç ÷ = 6
1 è 3 ø è 3ø è 3ø è 3ø è 3 ø è 3ø
= 3 = 3
2 1 1 2
´ + Answer: (A)
3 2 3
Answer: (B) 5. Passage: A fair die is tossed repeatedly until face six
T = Tail appearing twice. This implies selection of appears. Let X denote the number of tosses required.
fair coin first, getting tail and then selection of fair Answer the following questions:
coin and again getting tail. Hence (i) The probability that X is equal to 3 is
P(T ) = P(E1 Ç T1 ) ´ P(E1 Ç T2 ) 25 25 5 125
(A) (B) (C) (D)
216 36 36 216
æ 2 1ö æ 1 1ö
=ç ´ ÷ ´ç ´ ÷
è 3 2ø è 2 2ø (ii) The probability that X ³ 3 is
1 125 25 5 25
= (A) (B) (C) (D)
12 216 36 36 216
Answer: (C) (iii) The conditional probability that X ³ 6 given
X > 3 equals
4. Passage: and B are two tennis players participating 125 25 5 25
in a singles match as opponents. As per the rules of (A) (B) (C) (D)
216 216 36 36
the lawn tennis, the one who wins atleast six games
with at least two games more than his opponent wins Solution: Let p be the probability of getting six
the set. They serve alternately from game to game (success) in a single throw of a die so that
(i.e., for each game). A starts to serve after winning
the toss. It is given that the probability of A winning 1
p=
his service game is 2/3 and that of losing it is 1/3. 6
Answer the following questions:
and the probability of failure
(i) The probability of A winning the first set at six-
LOVE (6-0) is 5
6 6 3
q =1- p=
æ 2ö æ 1ö 2 1 6
(A) ç ÷ (B) ç ÷ (C) (D)
è 3ø è 3ø 36 2
 Worked-Out Problems 551

(i) The required probability is (iii) If the drawn ball is white, then the probability
2
that it is from urn C is
æ 5 ö æ 1 ö 25
P( X = 3) = q2 p = ç ÷ ç ÷ = 2 3 12 13
è 6 ø è 6 ø 216 (A) (B) (C) (D)
5 5 25 25
Answer: (A)
(ii) The required probability is Solution:
(i) Let W denote that drawn ball is white. Then
P( X ³ 3) = q2 p + q3 p + q4 p +  + ¥
W = (A È B È C) Ç W
= q2 p(1 + q + q2 +  + ¥)
= ( A Ç W ) È ( B Ç C ) È (C Ç A)
æ 5ö æ 1ö æ ö 25
2
1
=ç ÷ ç ÷ç = Therefore
è 6 ø è 6 ø è 1 - (5 / 6) ÷ø 36
P(W ) = P( A Ç W ) + P( B Ç W ) + P(C Ç W )
Answer: (B)
= P( A)P(W / A) + P( B)P(W / B) + P(C )P(W /C )
(iii) The required probability is (∵ X > 3)
2 2 2 1 1 4
P(( X ³ 6)/( X > 3)) = 1 - ( P( X = 4) + P( X = 5)) = ´ + ´ + ´
5 5 5 5 5 5
= 1 - ( p + pq) 10 2
= =
= 1 - p(1 + q) 25 5
Answer: (C)
1æ 5ö
= 1 - ç1 + ÷ (ii) Let E denote that drawn ball is black. Then
6è 6ø
P(E) = P( A)P(E / A) + P( B)P(E / B) + P(C )P(E /C )
11 25
=1- = 2 3 2 4 1 1
36 36 = ´ + ´ + ´
Answer: (D) 5 5 5 5 5 5
15 3
= =
6. Passage: Urns A, B, C, respectively, contain 2 white 25 5
and 3 black balls, 1 white and 4 black balls, 4 white and Answer: (D)
1 black balls. The probabilities of choosing the urns
(iii) By Bayes’ theorem we have
are, respectively, 2/5, 2/5, and 1/5. One of the urns is
chosen at random and a ball is drawn from it. Answer P(C )P(W /C )
the following questions: P(C /W ) =
P( A)P(W / A) + P( B)P(W / B) + P(C )P(W /C )
(i) Probability that the drawn ball is white is
1 4
12 13 2 3 ´
(A) (B) (C) (D) = 5 5
25 25 5 5 2 2 2 1 1 4
´ + ´ + ´
(ii) Probability that the drawn ball is black is 5 5 5 5 5 5
13 12 2 3 4 2
(A) (B) (C) (D) = =
25 25 5 5 10 5
Answer: (A)

Assertion–Reasoning Type Questions

In the following set of questions, a Statement I is given (C) Statement I is true and Statement II is false
and a corresponding Statement II is given just below it. (D) Statement I is false and Statement II is true
Mark the correct answer as:
(A) Both Statements I and II are true and Statement II 1. Statement I: Let A and B be two events and
is a correct explanation for Statement I A D B = ( A - B) È ( B - A)
(B) Both Statements I and II are true but Statement II
is not a correct explanation for Statement I Then
|P( A) - P( B)| £ P( A D B)
552 Chapter 7 Probability

( ) - P(B) is not greater than P(A

Statement II: P(A ( - B). are non-singular matrices. Therefore the probability is
Solution: We have 6 3
=
P( A) - P( B) £ P( A È B) - P( B) = P( A - B) 16 8
Answer: (B)
Statement II is true. Similarly
4. Statement I: If P(A È B) = 0.65 and P(A Ç B) = 0.15,
P( B) - P( A) £ P( A È B) - P( A) = P( B - A)
then
Therefore
P( A) + P( B) = 1.2
| P( A) - P( B)| £ P( A - B) + P( B - A) = P( A D B)
Statement II: For any two events E and F,
F
Statement I is correct.
P(E È F ) = P(E ) + P(F ) - P(E Ç F )
Answer: (A)
Solution: Statement II is the addition theorem for
2. Statement I: A is an event with non-zero probability. probabilities, and hence statement II is correct. Now
If A is independent of itself, then P(A) = 1.
P( A) + P( B) = 1 - P( A) + 1 - P( B)
Statement II: Two independent events cannot be
= 2 - ( P( A) + P( B))
mutually exclusive.
= 2 - ( P( A È B) + P( A Ç B))
Solution: A is independent of itself. This implies
= 2 - (0.65 + 0.15)
P( A) = P( A Ç A) = P( A)P( A)
= 1.2
Þ P( A) = 1 (∵ P( A) ¹ 0) Answer: (A)
Statement I is true. If E and F are independent, then 5. Statement I: A and B are two events such that
P(E Ç F ) = P(E )P(F ) ¹ 0
1 1 1
P( A) = , P( B) = and P( A Ç B) =
but if E and F are mutually exclusive, then P(E Ç F)
F = 0. 2 3 6
Answer: (B) Then

3. Consider the system of equations ax + by = 0 and cx + 1

P(exactly one of A and B) =
dy = 0, where a, b, c, d belong to the set {0, 1}. 2
Statement I: The probability that the system has Statement II: For any two events E and F
unique solution is 3/8.
P(exactly one of E and F ) = P(E) + P(F ) - 2 P(E Ç F )
Statement II: The probability the system has a solu-
tion is 1. Solution: We have
Solution: Statement II is correct, because x = 0, y = 0 is P(exactly one of E and F )
always a solution. The system has unique solution if and
= P((E - F ) È (F - E))
only if the matrix
= P (E - F ) + P (F - E )
éa b ù
êc d ú = P(E ) - P(E Ç F ) + P(F ) - P(F Ç E )
ë û
(∵ E - F = E - E Ç F )
is non-singular. Since each of a, b, c and d is either 0 or 1 = P(E ) + P(F ) - 2 P(E Ç F )
it follows that the number of matrices is 24 out of which
the matrices Therefore Statement II is correct. Now

é 1 0 ù é 1 1ù é1 0 ù P(exactly one of A and B) = P( A) + P( B) - 2 P( A Ç B)

ê0 1ú , ê0 1ú , ê1 1ú , 1 1 æ 1ö
ë û ë û ë û = + - 2ç ÷
2 3 è 6ø
é1 1ù é0 1ù é0 1ù
ê1 0 ú , ê 1 0 ú , ê 1 1ú =
1
ë û ë û ë û
2
Answer: (A)
 Worked-Out Problems 553

6. A and B are two equally strong players in tennis. 4 1

Consider the two events = =
16 4
E1: A beats B exactly in 3 games out of 4. 5 3
E2: A beats B exactly 5 games out of 8. æ 1ö æ 1ö
P(E2 ) = 8C5 ç ÷ ç ÷
è 2ø è 2ø
Statement I: E1 is more possible than E2.
56 7
Statement II: In a binomial distribution B(n, p) = =
where n is the number of trials and p is the probability 28 32
of success in a single trial and q = 1 - p, the probability Therefore
k success = nCk p kqn-k.
P(E1 ) > P(E2 )
Solution: Statement II correct (see Section 7.6.1). Now
Answer: (A)
P(E1 ) = C3 × p q
4 3

3
æ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö
=4´ç ÷ ç ÷ çè∵ p = q = ÷ø
è 2ø è 2ø 2

Integer Answer Type Questions

1. Let n be a positive integer and A = {1, 2, 3, …, n}. Let S
be the set of all mappings f :A ® A. The probability that
n-m=7-4=3
a randomly chosen element of S to be injective mapping
Answer: 3
is given to be 3/32. Then the value of n is .
Solution: Number of mappings from A to A is nn, that 3. A bag contains n balls (n > 3) of different colours.
is S contains nn elements. It is known that the number of If the bag has 3 white balls and the probability of
injections from A to A is n (see Theorem 6.18, page 293, drawing 2 white balls from the bag is 3/10, the value
Vol. 1). Therefore by hypothesis of n is .
n 3 4 Solution: By hypothesis
= =
nn 32 44 3
C2 3
n
=
So C2 10
n=4 3´2 3
=
Answer: 4 n(n - 1) 10
n2 - n - 20 = 0
2. 5 pairs of socks are in a cupboard of which 4 socks
are drawn randomly. The probability that the drawn (n - 5)(n + 4) = 0
sample contains exactly one pair is m/n, where m
n=5
and n are natural numbers having no common factor
except unity. Then n - m is . Answer: 5
Solution: 4 socks out of 10 can be selected in 10C4 = 210
4. A sportsman’s chance of shooting an animal at a
ways. Let E be the event that the draw contains only one
distance r > a (“a” is constant) is given to be a2 / r2.
pair. Out of 5 pairs 1 pair can be selected in 5C1 = 5 ways.
He fires at r = 2a and if he misses, then again fires at
From the remaining 8 socks 2 can be selected in 8C2 = 28
r = 3a. He repeats the same process at r = 4a, 5a and
ways. But these 28 ways contain 4 pairs also. Therefore
6a. When he misses at r = 6a, the animal escapes into
number of ways of selecting exactly one pair is
the jungle. If the odds against the sportsman are p : q,
5 ´ (28 - 4) = 5 ´ 24 then q - p is .
Solution: The sportsman’s chance of missing when r = ja is
Hence
5 ´ 24 4 m a2 1
P(E ) = = = 1- 2 2
= 1 - 2 ( j = 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
210 7 n ja j
554 Chapter 7 Probability

The animal escapes when the sportsman misses in all the By hypothesis
five shots. Therefore the probability of animal escaping
23
to jungle is P( B) =
90
6 æ 1ö æ 1 öæ 1öæ 1 öæ 1öæ 1ö
Õ ç1 - 2 ÷ = ç1 - 2 ÷ ç1 - 3 ÷ ç1 - 4 ÷ ç1 - 5 ÷ ç1 - 6 ÷ Therefore
j=2 è j ø è 2 øè 2 øè 2 øè 2 øè 2 ø
3n + 4(n + 4) 23
éæ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö ù =
= êç 1 - ÷ ç1 - ÷ ç1 - ÷ ç1 - ÷ ç1 - ÷ 18(n + 4) 90
ëè 2ø è 3ø è 4ø è 5ø è 6 ø úû
35n + 80 = 23(n + 4)
éæ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö æ 1ö ù
´ êç 1 + ÷ ç1 + ÷ ç1 + ÷ ç1 + ÷ ç1 + ÷ 12 n = 12
ëè 2ø è 3ø è 4ø è 5ø è 6 ø úû
n=1
æ 1 2 3 4 5ö æ 3 4 5 6 7 ö
=ç ´ ´ ´ ´ ÷ç ´ ´ ´ ´ ÷ Answer: 1
è 2 3 4 5 6ø è 2 3 4 5 6ø
1 7 7 p 6. A and B are two independent events whose probabili-
= ´ = =
6 2 12 q ties are, respectively, 1/n and 1/(n + 1). If the proba-
bility of A Ç B is 1/12, then n equals .
Therefore
Solution: A and B are independent events. This implies
q - p = 12 - 7 = 5
P( A Ç B) = P( A)P( B)
Answer: 5
Therefore
5. Boxes B1, B2, B3 contain different coloured balls as
1
given in Table 7.9. The probabilities of selecting boxes = P( A)P( B)
are, respectively, 1/6, 1/2 and 1/3. One of the boxes is 12
chosen at random and a ball is drawn from it. If the 1
=
probability of the drawn ball is black is 23/90 then the n(n + 1)
value of n is equal to .
which gives
Table 7.9 Integer answer type question 5 (n is
a positive integer) n=3
Answer: 3
White Black Red
B1 2 n 2 7. A number x is selected from the set of first 9 natural
numbers (i.e., x = 1, 2, 3, …, 9). If the probability that
B2 3 2 4
f x)) = x where
ff( f(
B3 4 3 2
f ( x) = x2 - 3 x + 3

Solution: Let B be denote the event of drawing a black is m/9, then m is equal to .
ball. Then
Solution: Clearly all the solutions of f( f x) = x are also
B = ( B1 È B2 È B3 ) Ç B solutions of f( f x)) = x. First, we solve f(
f f( f x) = x.
= ( B1 Ç B) È ( B2 Ç B) È ( B3 Ç B) f ( x) = x Þ x2 - 3 x + 3 = x

Therefore Þ x2 - 4 x + 3 = 0
Þ ( x - 1)( x - 3) = 0
P( B) = P( B1 )P( B / B1 ) + P( B2 )P( B / B2 ) + P( B3 )P( B / B3 )
Þ x = 1, 3
1 n 1 2 1 3
= ´ + ´ + ´
6 n+4 2 9 3 9 Therefore x = 1, 3 are also solutions of f( f x)) = x. We
f f(
n want to seek if there are any more solutions of f( f x)) = x
f f(
2
= + other than 1 and 3.
6(n + 4) 9
f ( f ( x)) = x Þ f ( x2 - 3 x + 3) = x
3n + 4(n + 4)
=
18(n + 4) Þ ( x2 - 3 x + 3)2 - 3( x2 - 3 x + 3) + 3 = 0
 Worked-Out Problems 555

Þ x4 - 6 x3 + 12 x2 - 9 x + 3 = 0 since

Þ ( x2 - 4 x + 3)( x2 - 2 x + 1) = 0 1
P( P1 pairing with X ) =
4
Þ ( x - 1)( x - 3)( x - 1)2 = 0
as there are four pairs.
Þ x = 1, 3
P(P1 to lose in II) = P(P1 wins in I)P(P1 pairing with X in II)
the probability that x satisfies equation f( f x)) = x is 2/9.
f f( P( P1 losing)
Therefore m = 2.
1 1 1
Answer: 2 = ´ ´
2 2 2
8. A fair coin is tossed n times. Let X denote the number 1
=
of heads appeared. If P(X = 4), P(X = 5) and P(X = 6) 8
are in AP, then the smallest values of n is .
P( P1 to lose in III) = P( P1 wining I and II) P( P1 loosing)
Solution: Since the coin is fair,
æ 1 1ö 1
1 =ç ´ ÷ ´
P( H ) = P(T ) = è 2 2ø 2
2
1
By binomial distribution, =
8
n- K K
æ 1ö æ 1ö
P ( X = K ) = n CK ç ÷ çè ÷ø Therefore probability of P1 losing to X is
è 2ø 2
1 1 1 3
æ 1ö
n + + =
= CK ç ÷
n 8 8 8 8
è 2ø
Hence
By hypothesis
n-m=8-3=5
2 P( X = 5) = P( X = 4) + P( X = 6) Answer: 5
Therefore
10. The odds against an event A is 2 :3 and odds in
2(nC5 ) = nC4 + nC6 favour of another event B is 1:2. If A and B are
independent and P( A È B) = m / n, then | m - n| is
n2 - 21n + 98 = 0
. Here m and n do not have proper common
n = 7, 14 divisor.

Therefore n = 7 (smaller value). Solution: We have

Answer: 7 P( A È B) = P( A) + P( B) - P( A Ç B)

9. P1, P2, …, P8 are equally strong players (i.e., for each 3 1 3 1

= + - ´
of them the probability of win or lose is 1/2) are partic- 5 3 5 3
ipating in tennis singles tournament. If the probability
9+5-3
of P1 losing to eventual winner of the tournament is =
m/n then n - m is equal to . 15
11
Solution: Let X be the eventual winner. P1 may lose to =
X in I, II and III rounds. 15

P( P1 to lose in I) = P( P1 pairing with X and losing) Therefore m = 11 and n = 15. So |m - n| = 4.

Answer: 4
1 1
= ´
4 2
556 Chapter 7 Probability

SUMMARY
7.1 Random experiment: An experiment is called 7.8 Usual probability: The classical probability is also
random experiment if the following conditions are called usual probability.
satisfied.
(1) The experiment can be repeated any number of 7.9 Sample points and sample space: Any possible
times under similar conditions. outcome of a random experiment is called a sample
point and the set of all sample points is called
(2) All possible outcomes of the experiment are
the sample space of the random experiment. An
known in advance
elementary event means a sample point. Generally
(3) The actual outcome in a particular experiment sample space is denoted by S.
cannot be exactly predicted.
7.10 Finite sample space: A set A is called finite if either
7.2 Sample space and event: The set of all possible A is an empty set or it is bijective with the set {1,
outcomes of a random experiment is called sample 2, 3, …, n} for some positive integer n. If a sample
space of the experiment and any subset of the sample space is finite, then it is called a finite sample space.
space is called an event.
7.11 Countably infinite sample space: A set A is called
7.3 Exhaustive events: Two or more events are called countably infinite set if it is bijective with the set
exhaustive events if the performance of the experi- + of all positive integers. If the sample space of a
ment results in the occurrence of at least one of random experiment is countably infinite set, then
these events. the sample space is called countably infinite. For
example, tossing a fair coin till head appears has a
7.4 Mutually exclusive events: Two or more events are countably infinite sample space.
said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one
of the events prevents the occurrence of any one of 7.12 Definition: Here afterwards events mean subsets
the other events. of the sample space. If A and B are two events, then
A È B means at least one of A or B and A Ç B
7.5 Equally likely events: Two or more events are said means both A and B. Impossible event is denoted
to be equally likely (or equiprobable) if there is no by empty set f and a certain event means the entire
reason to expect one of them in preference to the sample space.
others.
7.13 Various events in set theoretical form:
7.6 Probability (classical definition): Suppose in a
(1) Events E1, E2, …, En are said to be mutually
random experiment there are n exhaustive, mutually
exclusive if Ei Ç Ej = f for i ¹ j.
exclusive, equally likely outcomes. If m of them are
favourable to an event E, then the probability P(E) (2) E1, E2, …, En are called exhaustive events if E1 È
of E is defined as E2 È  È En = S (sample space).
(3) Mutually exclusive and exhaustive events means
m
P(E ) = E1 È E2 È  È En = S and Ei Ç Ej = f for i ¹ j.
n
(4) E1, E2, …, En are called equally likely (or equi-
probable) if there is no reason to expect one of
QUICK LOOK
them in preference to the others.
0 £ P(E) £ 1 (∵ 0 £ m £ n)
7.14 Probability function (Axiomatic): Let S be the
sample space connected with a random experi-
ment and Ã(S) is the power set of S (i.e., the set
7.7 Complementary event: If E is an event, then non-
of all subsets of S). Then a function P : Ã(S) ® 
occurrence of E is called complementary eventt of E
is called a probability function on the sample S, if it
and is denoted by E (or Ec).
satisfies the following conditions:
(1) P(E) ³ 0 for all E ÎÃ(S)
QUICK LOOK
(2) P(S) = 1
n-m m (3) If E1 and E2 belong to Ã(S) and E1 Ç E2 = f, then
P(E ) =
c
= 1 - = 1 - P(E )
n n
P(E1 È E2 ) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 )
 Summary 557

If P is a probability function on S, then for any 7.18 Conditional probability: Let A and B be two events
E ÎÃ(S), P(E) is called the probability of the event E. and P be a probability function with P(B) > 0, then
If E = {s}, then we write P(s) instead of P({s}). we define P( A Ç B)/ P( B) as the conditional prob-
If S is a countably infinite space then (3) will be replaced ability of the occurrence of event A after the occur-
by the following: rence of the event B and it is denoted by P( A / B).
(3¢) If { En } is a sequence of mutually exclusive events, That is
then
P( A Ç B)
¥ ¥ P( A / B) =
P æ È En ö = å P(En )
P( B)
è n=1 ø n=1
QUICK LOOK
provided the infinite sum exists.
If the sample space S is finite, then
QUICK LOOK Number of favourable cases to both A and B
P( A /B) =
One can verify that the usual probability (classical Number of favourablee cases to B
definition) is also a probability function according to
modern probability definition given above in 7.14.
7.19 Multiplication theorem: Let A and B be two events
of a random experiment with positive probabilities,
7.15 Theorem: The following hold good for any prob- then
ability function P defined on a sample space S. P( A)P( B / A) = P( A Ç B)
(1) P(f) = 0
= P( B)P( A / B)
(2) P(E ) = 1 - P(E )
(3) 0 £ P(E) £ 1 for all E ÎÃ(S) 7.20 Corollary: Let E1, E2, …, En be n events with posi-
n-1
(4) P(E1 - E2) = P(E1) - P(E1 Ç E2) and in particular tive probabilities and P æ Ç Ei ö > 0, then
P(E1 - E2) = P(E1) - P(E
E2) whenever E2 Ì E1 and è i =1 ø
hence E2 Ì E1 Þ P(E1) ³ P(E E2).
P(E1 Ç E2 Ç  Ç En ) = P(E1 )P(E2 / E1 )P(E3 /(E1 Ç E2 ))
(5) If E1, E2, …, En are mutually exclusive events,
n-1
then  P(En /( Ç Ei ))
i =1
P(E1 È E2 È  È En ) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 ) +  + P(En )
7.21 Definition (independent events): Two events A
7.16 Definition (Odds in favour, odds against): If E is and B are said to be independent of each other if
an event, E is its complementary event and P is a the occurrence of one does not effect the occur-
probability function, then the ratio P(E): P(E) is rence of the other. That is, B is independent of A,
called odds in favour of E and the ratio P(E): P(E) if P( B / A) = P( B).
is called odds against E.
7.22 Theorem: Two events A and B are independent if
7.17 Addition theorem: If A and B are two events of a and only if P(A Ç B) = P(A)P(B).
random experiment, then
7.23 Theorem (total probability): Let E1, E2, …, En be
P( A È B) = P( A) + P( B) - P( A Ç B)
mutually exclusive and exhaustive events with posi-
and in particular, if A Ç B = f, then tive probabilities. Then for any event E,
P( A È B) = P( A) + P( B)
n
P(E) = å P(Ej )P(E / Ej )
j =1

QUICK LOOK
7.24 Bayes’ theorem: Let E1, E2, …, En be mutually
If A, B and C are any three events, then
exclusive and exhaustive events with positive prob-
P( A È B È C ) = P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) abilities. If E is an event then
- P( A Ç B) - P( B Ç C ) P(EK )P(E / EK )
P(EK / E) = n
- P(C Ç A) + P( A Ç B Ç C ) å P(E )P(E / E )
j j
j =1
558 Chapter 7 Probability

7.25 Definition (random variable): If S is a sample Table 7.10

space and  is the real number set then any func-
X x1 x2 x3… xn…
tion from S to  is called a random variable on
S. Generally, random variable is denoted by the (X = xn) p1 p2 p3… pn…
capital letters X,
X Y,
Y Z, etc.
7.31 Formula: If m and s 2 are, respectively, the mean
7.26 Probability function induced by a random vari- and variance of a random variable X whose range
able: Let S be a sample space, P a probability func- is {x1, x2, x3 …, xn, …} and P(X = xi) = pi, then
tion on S and X a random variable on S. Define
PX : Ã() ®  by PX(T)T = P(XX-1(T))
T for T ÎÃ(). s 2 + m 2 = å xn2 pn
Then PX is a probability function on  and is called n

the probability function induced by X on .

7.32 Table 7.11 enables for quick calculation of mean
7.27 Probability distribution: Let S be a sample space and variance.
with probability function P and X a random vari-
able. Then the function F :  ®  defined by Table 7.11

F (r ) = P( X £ r ), r Î X=x P(X = x) xP(X = x) x2P(X = x)

is called the probability distribution function of the x1 p1 = P(X = x1) x1 p1 x21 p1

random variable X.X x2 p2 = P(X = x2) x2 p2 x22 p2
x3 p3 = P(X = x3) x3 p3 x23 p3
7.28 Theorem: Let X be a random variable on a sample    
space S and F the probability distribution function xn pn = P(X = xn) xn pn 2
xn pn
of X
X. Then the following hold.    
(1) 0 £ F(
F r) £ 1 for all r Î. Total = m Total = s 2 + m2
(2) r £ s Þ F(
F r) £ F(
F s) for any r and s of .
(3) lim F (r ) = 1 and lim F (r ) = 0.
r ®¥ r ®-¥ 7.33 Bernoulli trial: A random experiment in which we
(4) F (r + 0) = lim F ( s) = F (r ). consider an event called success and its comple-
s® r
s >r mentary called failure is called Bernoulli trial.

7.29 Definition (discrete random variable): A random 7.34 Binomial variate: Let n be the number of indepen-
variable X is called discrete if its range is finite or dent Bernoulli trials in which the probability for
countably infinite. a success is p and that of failure is q = 1 - p. If X
denotes the number of successes, then
7.30 Definition (mean and variance): Let X be a P( X = k ) = n Ck pk qn - k
random variable on a sample space S and suppose
the range of X = {x1, x2, …, xn, …}. Let P be a prob- P(X = k) is called the probability of k successes and
ability function on S. Let P(X = xn) = P(X X-1{xn}). n – k failures. n and p are called parameters of the
Then binomial variate X and we write X ~ B(n, p).
(1) If å x P( X = x ) is finite, then it is called the
n
n n
7.35 Theorem (mean and variance of X ~ B (n, p)):
mean of X and is denoted by mX or simply m If X ∼ B(n, p), then the mean of X is np and the
when there is no confusion about X
X. That is variance is npq.
m = å xn P( X = xn )
n QUICK LOOK

The mean of a binomial variate is greater than or

(2) If å (x- m )2 P( X = xn ) is finite, then it is called
n
equal to its variance.
variance, denoted by s 2 and | s | is called stan-
dard deviation of X.X Note: If a set of n Bernoulli trials are repeated N
times, then the expected number of sets which contain
(3) Table 7.10 is called the probability distribution
r success and n – r failures is N(nCr prqn-r).
table of X where pi = P(X = xi) = P(X X-1({xi})).
 Exercises 559

7.36 Poisson distribution: Let X be a random variable 7.37 Theorem: The mean and variance of a Poisson
whose range is {0, 1, 2, 3, …, n, …} and l a positive variate X with parameter l are equal and equal
number. We define to l.
Note: In Vol. 3 (Calculus) we will prove that the Poisson
e- l l k
P( X = k ) = distribution is a limiting case of binomial distribution.
k

then X is called a Poisson variate and l is called the

parameter of X.X

EXERCISES
Single Correct Choice Type Questions
1. A bag contains 8 white, 6 black, 2 red and 4 green 8. An ellipse of eccentricity 2 2 / 3 is inscribed in a
balls. Two balls are picked at random at a time. The circle. A point inside the circle is selected at random.
probability that they are of different colours is The probability that the point lies outside the
7 9 14 12 ellipse is
(A) (B) (C) (D)
19 19 19 19 2 1 1 3
(A) (B) (C) (D)
3 3 2 4
2. An urn contains 6 white, 4 red and 10 green marbles.
Three are drawn one after other without replacement. 9. Two subsets A and B are chosen at random from
The probability that they are of different colours is a set containing 6 elements one after other with
2 3 6 2 replacement. The probability that A and B contain
(A) (B) (C) (D) equal number of elements is
9 19 19 57
131 231 331 101
(A) (B) (C) (D)
3. A bag contains 4 black and 7 white balls. Two balls 1021 1021 1021 1021
are drawn randomly. The probability that at least one
of them is black is 10. A lot contains 12 cell phones out of which 4 are
(A) 0.71 (B) 0.618 (C) 0.728 (D) 0.628 defective. If two cell phones are drawn from the lot
at random, the probability that one is defective and
4. Three fair coins are tossed at a time. The probability the other is non-defective is
of getting at least one head is 16 15 13 17
(A) (B) (C) (D)
7 1 3 4 33 33 33 33
(A) (B) (C) (D)
8 8 8 8
11. On the real line (i.e., x-axis) points p and q are
5. There are 9 books of which one is very popular. The selected at random such that -2 £ q £ 3 and 0 £ p £ 3.
books are arranged in a row at random. The probability The distance between p and q is greater than 3 with
that the popular book is always at the middle place is probability
2 1 (4!)2 2(4!)2 2 1 1 3
(A) (B) (C) (D) (A) (B) (C) (D)
9 9 9! 9! 3 3 4 4

6. The letters of the word PECULIAR are arranged 12. A and B are two events such that
at random. The probability that all the vowels are 3 1 1
together is P( A) = , P( B) = and P( A Ç B) =
8 2 4
3 1 1 3
(A) (B) (C) (D) Then P( A Ç B) is equal to
7 7 14 14
1 1 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
7. A and B are two students among six students. If all 12 3 16 4
the six students are arranged in a row, the probability
that B immediately succeeds A is 13. A bag contains 4 red, 3 white, 2 blue and 1 green
1 1 2 2 marbles. Four marbles are drawn from it at random.
(A) (B) (C) (D)
5 6 5 3
560 Chapter 7 Probability

The probability that the draw contains one each 1/2, 3/4 and 1/4. They try the problem independently.
from the given colours is The probability that majarity of them solving the
1 6 4 31 problem is
(A) (B) (C) (D)
7 7 35 35 1 1 2 3
(A) (B) (C) (D)
3 2 3 4
14. A gardner plants 3 apple trees, 4 neem trees and
5 mango trees in a row at random. The probability 22. A lot contains 15 cameras out of which 4 are defec-
that no two mango trees are next to one another is tive. Cameras are drawn one after other to identity
7 1 8 1 the defective pieces. The process continues till all
(A) (B) (C) (D) the defective pieces are identified. The probability
99 9 99 11
that the proceedure ends at the ninth testing is
15. The first 11 letters of the English alphabet are arranged 11 13 8 9
(A) (B) (C) (D)
in all possible ways at random. The probability that 195 195 195 195
there are exactly 4 letters in between A and B is
12 14 7 6 23. The probability that man aged x years to die in five
(A) B) (C) (D) years is 1/3. Out of persons P1, P2, P3, P4 and P5, each
55 55 55 55
aged x years, P1 will die in 5 years and he is the first
person to die in 5 years is
16. Two positive real numbers x and y such that x + y =
12 are selected at random. The probability that xy 211 311 111 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
is greater than or equal to 3/4 times their greatest 1215 1315 1115 5
product is
1 1 2 3 24. The probabilities of three mutually exclusive events are
(A) (B) (C) (D)
3 2 3 4 1 + 3p 1 - p 1 - 2 p
, ,
3 4 2
17. From 15 consecutive positive integers, 3 are selected
at random. The probability that they are in AP is Then
3 7 9 11 1 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D) (A) 0 < p £ (B) £ p£
65 65 65 65 3 3 2
1 1 1
18. Five numbers are selected at random from the first 50 (C) < p<1 (D) £ p £
2 5 4
natural numbers and arranged in the increasing order
x1 < x2 < x3 < x4 < x5. The probability that x3 is 30 is 25. Two events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.7,
29
C2 ´ 20C2 39
C2 ´ 19C2 P(B) = 0.4 and P( A Ç B) = 0.5. Then P( B /( A È B))
(A) (B)
50
C5 50
C5 is equal to
30
C2 ´ 20C2 55 1 1 1 2
(C) (D) (A) (B) (C) (D)
50
C5 1029 2 3 4 3

19. Two different coloured dice are rolled. A is the event 26. A fair die is rolled four times. Out of the four face
that the sum of the faces appeared is odd and B is values obtained, the probability that the minimum
the event that one of the faces turned up shows face value is greater than or equal to 2 and the
face 1. Then P( A Ç B) is maximum value is less than or equal to 5 is
1 2 1 3 16 1 8 65
(A) (B) (C) (D) (A) (B) (C) (D)
3 3 4 4 81 81 81 81

20. Two dice are thrown at a time. The probability that 27. A purse contains four 50 paise coins and three
the sum is greater than 8 is Rs. 1 coins. Another purse contains six 50 paise coins
and two Rs. 1 coins. One of the purses is selected
1 1 1 5
(A) (B) (C) (D) random and a coin is drawn from it. The probability
6 9 3 18 that it is a 50 paise coin is
35 25 37 27
21. A problem in combinatorics is given to three students (A) (B) (C) (D)
whose probabilities of solving it are, respectively, 56 56 56 56
 Exercises 561

28. If each of a, b and c takes values from the set {1, 2, is in a police court. The probability that they have
3, 4, 5, 6}, then the probability that the equation given identical statements is
ax2 + bx + c = 0 has real roots is equal to 5 1 7 2
(A) (B) (C) (D)
53 43 23 63 12 3 12 3
(A) (B) (C) (D)
216 216 216 216
36. There are five pairs of socks in a cupboard. If 4 socks
29. In a regular hexagon ABCDEF,
F if three vertices are are drawn at random, the probability that the draw
selected at random, then the probability that they contains exactly one matching is
form the vertices of an equilateral triangle is 8 2 5 13
(A) (B) (C) (D)
1 1 2 1 21 7 7 21
(A) (B) (C) (D)
5 3 3 10
37. In a bolt-producing factory, machines A, B and C
30. From the set {1, 2, 3, …, 15}, seven numbers are give 25%, 35% and 40% of the total output, respec-
selected at random one after other with replace- tively. It is also known that 5%, 4% and 2% of them
ment. The probability that the largest of these is 9 is are defective. If a bolt of the factory is selected at
7 7 7 7 random then the probability that it is defective is
æ 8ö æ 9ö æ 7ö æ 3ö
(A) ç ÷ (B) ç ÷ (C) ç ÷ (D) ç ÷ 69 63 73 83
è 15 ø è 10 ø è 10 ø è 5ø (A) (B) (C) (D)
2000 2000 2000 2000
31. Two cards are drawn at random from a deck of
38. A and B are two politicians who settle disputes
52 playing cards one after other, replacing the earlier
drawn card. The probability that the first card is between parties independently. The probabilities of
diamond and the second card is Queen is their settling disputes amicably are, respectively, 4/7
and 7/15. A firm has engaged them for a settlement
3 4 5 1 of dispute between the firm and the employees. The
(A) (B) (C) (D)
13 13 52 52 probability that neither of them settle the dispute is
73 32 8 16
32. Let S be a four-element set. If a two-element subset (A) (B) (C) (D)
105 105 35 35
of S is selected at random, the probability that it
belongs to a partition class of S is
39. S is a five-element set. A subset P of A is selected
2 1 3 4 at random. After inspecting the elements of P,
(A) (B) (C) (D)
9 5 5 5 the elements are restored to S. Again a subset Q
(Hint: See Definition 1.28 and Single Correct Choice of S is selected at random. The probability that P
Type Question 13, Chapter 1, Vol. 1, page 60.) and Q form a partition of S (i.e., P È Q = S and
P Ç Q = f) is
33. Let w ¹ 1 be a cube root of unity. A fair die is 1 1 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
thrown three times. If r1, r2 and r3 are the numbers 2 16 8 32
that appeared on the faces, the probability that
wr1 + wr2 + wr3 = 0 is 40. A set X has 10 elements. Subset A of X is selected at
1 1 2 1 random and then the elements of A are returned to
(A) (B) (C) (D) X. Again a subset B of X is chosen at random. The
X
18 9 9 36
probability that B is disjoint with A is
10 5
34. “A” is one of the six horses entered for a race and it 1 1 æ 3ö æ 3ö
(A) (B) (C) ç ÷ (D) ç ÷
is to ridden by one of the two jockeys B and C. If B 210 25 è 4ø è 4ø
rides A, then all the horses are equally likely to win.
If C rides A, the chances of A’s win will be trebled, 41. Three groups of workers contain 3 women, 1 male;
then, the odds in favour of A is 2 women and 2 male and 3 males and 1 woman. One
(A) 1: 2 (B) 2 :1 (C) 1: 3 (D) 3 :1 worker from each group is selected for a work at
random. The probability that the selection consti-
35. A and B are two persons. A speakes truth 2 out of tutes 2 males and 1 lady is
3 times, while B speaks truth 3 out of 4 times. They 9 3 1 13
(A) (B) (C) (D)
are independent witnesses in an accident case which 32 32 32 32
562 Chapter 7 Probability

42. Two persons A and B each tosses a fair coin thrice. n+2 n+1 m+2 m+1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
The probability that they get same number of heads is 2m+1 2m+1 2n+1 2n+1
5 11 7 9
(A) (B) (C) (D) 47. Three identical bags contain the following composi-
16 16 16 16
tion of balls.
43. If A and B are two independent events in a random Bag I: 2 white, 1 black
experiment then P( A È B) + P( A Ç B) is equal to Bag II: 1 white, 2 black
Bag III: 2 white, 2 black
1 2
(A) 0 (B) (C) 1 (D) The probabilities of selecting the bags are equal.
2 3 One of the bags is selected and a ball is drawn from
it. The drawn ball is found to be black and it is kept
44. Three bags have the following combination of balls. outside. Then the probability of a black ball again is
Bag I: 7 black, 3 white
1 2 2 3
Bag II: 4 black, 6 white (A) (B) (C) (D)
Bag III: 2 black, 8 white 3 3 5 5
The probabilities of selecting bags are, respectively,
1/5, 3/5 and 1/5. One of the bags is chosen at random 48. A fair die is rolled. The probability that first 1 appears
and two balls are drawn from it, one after other at even number of trials is
without replacement. The probability that both balls 6 1 5 5
(A) (B) (C) (D)
are black is 11 6 36 11
4 1 41 8
(A) (B) (C) (D) 49. An experiment has 10 equally likely outcomes. Let
45 9 45 45
A and B be two non-empty events of the experi-
(Hint: Total probability.) ment. If A consists of 4 outcomes, the number of
outcomes B should have such that A and B are inde-
45. Five men out of 100 and 25 women out of 1000 have pendent is
colour blindness. If a colour blind person is selected
at random, the probability that the person is a male is (A) 2, 4 or 3 (B) 3, 6 or 9
1 2 1 1 (C) 4 or 8 (D) 5 or 10
(A) (B) (C) (D)
3 3 2 4
50. If the mean and variance of a Binomial variate X
(Hint: Use Bayes’ theorem.) are, respectively, 2 and 1, then P(X > 1) is
11 5 7 9
46. A fair coin is tossed (m + n) times where m > n. The (A) (B) (C) (D)
16 16 16 16
probability for m consecutive heads is

Multiple Correct Choice Type Questions

1. If A and B are independent events, then 3. Let P be a probability function on a sample space S
(A) A and B are independent and B a fixed non-empty subset of S. For any subset
A of S, define
(B) A and B are independent
(C) A and B are independent PB ( A) = P( A / B)
(D) A and B are exclusive events Then
(A) PB(S) = 1
2. Two different coloured fair dice are thrown at a time.Then
P( A Ç B Ç C )
1 (B) PB ( A Ç C ) =
(A) (Sum of the faces is odd) = P( B)
2
(C) PB(A È C) = PB(A) + PB(C) - PB(A Ç C)
11
(B) P(At least one face is odd) = (D) PB(A Ç C) = PB(A) PB(C), whenever A and C are
36
independent.
1
(C) P(Sum of the faces is 5) =
9 4. Let A, B, C be mutually exclusive and exhaustive
25 events of a random experiment with sample space S.
(D) P(Neither of the faces is 1) =
36
 Exercises 563

Suppose P is a probability function on S. Which of the (A) mutually exclusive

following are not correct? (B) independent
(A) P(A) = 0.24, P(B) = 0.4, P(C) = 0.2 (C) exhaustive and dependent
1 1 1 (D) such that one is twice as likely as the other
(B) P( A) = , P( B) = , P(C ) =
4 4 2
(C) P(A) = 0.1, P(B) = 0.2, P(C) = 0.6 8. The letters of the word PROBABILITY are arranged
(D) P( A) = 0.6, P( A Ç B) = 0.5 in a row at random. Let E1 be the event that the two
I’s are together and E2 is the event that two B’s are
together. Then
5. Let A and B be two events of a random experiment.
Suppose P(A) = p1, P(B) = p2 and P(A È B) = p3. Then (A) P(E1 Ç E2 ) =
2
(B) P(E1 È E2 ) =
18
55 55
(A) ( A È B) = 1 - p1 + p3
1 2
(B) P( A Ç B) = 1 - p1 - p2 + p3 (C) P(E1 / E2 ) = (D) P(E2 / E1 ) =
5 5
(C) P( A È ( A Ç B)) = p1 + p2 - p3
(D) P( A È B) = p1 + p2 - p3 9. The probabilities of a 12th standard student passing
the subjects Maths, Physics and Chemistry are,
respectively, m, p and c, the probability of passing
6. Two fair dice are thrown at a time. Let A, B, C be the
at least one subject is 3/4, the probability of passing
following events:
at least two subjects is 1/2 and the probability of
A = {(x, y) | x is odd} passing exactly two subjects is 2/5. Which of the
B = {(x, y) | y is odd} following relations are true?
C = {(x, y) | x + y is odd} 19 27
(A) p + m + c = (B) p + m + c =
Then 20 20
(A) P(A Ç B) = P(A) P(B) 1 1
(C) pmc = (D) pmc =
(B) P(B Ç C) = P(B) P(C) 10 4
(C) P(C Ç A) = P(C) P(A)
10. A and B are independent events of a random experi-
(D) P(A Ç B Ç C) = P(A) P(B) P(C)
ment. If P( A Ç B) = 1/ 6 and P( A Ç B) = 1/ 3. Then
7. The probabilities of the events A Ç B, A, B and A È B
1 1
(A) P( A) = (B) P( A) =
of a random experiment are in AP in the given order, 2 3
with the common different as P(A). Assume that 1 1
(C) P( B) = (D) P( B) =
P(A) > 0. Then A and B are 3 2

Matrix-Match Type Questions

In each of the following questions, statements are given p q r s t
in two columns, which have to be matched. The state- A
ments in Column I are labeled as (A), (B), (C) and B
(D), while those in Column III are labeled as (p), (q),
C
(r), (s) and (t). Any given statement in Column I can
have correct matching with one or more statements in D
Column II. The appropriate bubbles corresponding to
the answers to these questions have to be darkened as 1. A, B and C are three events of a random experiment
illustrated in the following example. and P is a probability function. If P(A) = 0.6, P(B) =
Example: If the correct matches are (A) ® (p), (s); 0.4, P(C) = 0.5, P(A È B) = 0.8, P(A Ç C) = 0.3,
(B) ® (q), (s),(t); (C) ® (r); (D) ® (r), (t); that is if the P(A Ç B Ç C) = 0.2 and P(A È B È C) = 0.85, then
matches are (A) ® (p) and (s); (B) ® (q), (s) and (t); match the items of Column I with those of Column II.
(C) ® (r); and (D) ® (r), (t), then the correct darkening
of bubbles will look as follows:
564 Chapter 7 Probability

4. Match the items of Column I with those of Column II.

Column I Column II
(A) P(A Ç B) is (p) 0.35 Column I Column II
(q) 0.8
(B) P(B Ç C) is 1
(r) 0.2 (A) If two fair dice are rolled, then (p)
the probability of sum of the 4
(C) P( A / B) is equal to (s) 0.3 faces is 7 is
2 1
(D) P( A È B) equals (t) (B) If a card is picked from a deck (q)
3 of 52 playing cards, then the 2
probability of getting a red
card is
2. A, B, C are three events such that 3
(C) P(x) is a polynomial (r)
3 1 satisfying the relation 8
P( B) = , P( A Ç B Ç C ) =
4 3 P(x) + P(2x2 ) = 5x2 -18 for all
real x. Now, each coefficient
1
and P( A Ç B Ç C ) = a, b and c of the quadratic
3 expression ax2 + bx + c is one
Match items of Column I with those of Column II. of the roots of the equation
P(x) = 0. The probability that
ax2 + bx + c = 0 has real roots is
Column I Column II 1
(D) In class X of a school 75% (s)
are boys and 25% are girls. 6
1
(A) P( B Ç C ) is (p) Probability of boy getting
12
first class is 1/3 while girl
4
(B) P(B Ç C) is (q) getting first class is 1/2. If
9 one candidate is selected at
1 random, the probability of the
(C) P(( A Ç C )/ B) is (r)
3 candidate getting first class is
2
(D) P(( A Ç C )/ B) is (s)
3 5. The letters of the word MATHEMATICS are written
in a row at random. Match the items of Column I with
3. A and B are two independent events. It is given that those of Column II.
P( A Ç B) = 1/ 12 and P( A Ç B) = 1/ 2. Match the
items of Column I with those of Column II. Column I Column II
2
Column I Column II (A) Probability of the two (p)
M’s together is 11
1 4
(A) P(A) is equal to (p) (B) The probability that (q)
3 two M’s and two A’s 55
1 are together is
(B) P(B) is equal to (q)
6 6
(C) The probability that the (r)
1 55
(C) P( A Ç B) is (r) vowels are together is
2 1
(D) The probability of (s)
1 55
(D) P( A Ç B) is (s) beginning with M and
4 end with M is

Comprehension-Type Questions
1. Passage: A and B are two bags. A contains 4 fair coins sides. Two coins are transfered from bag A to bag B
and 3 counterfeit coins while B has 5 fair and 7 coun- and then a coin is taken from the bag B and tossed.
terfeit coins. The counterfeit coins have tail on both Answer the following three questions.
 Exercises 565

(i) If both coins transfered from A to B are counter- (i) The proportionality constant is equal to
feit coins, then probability of getting a tail is 1 1 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
3 5 1 23 74 148 112 504
(A) (B) (C) (D)
4 28 2 28
(ii) If E is the event of selecting a biased coin out of
(ii) If tail appears, then the probability of both coins 6 coins, then P(E1 / E) is
transferred from bag A are counterfeit is
1 1 1 2
1 23 23 23 (A) (B) (C) (D)
(A) (B) (C) (D) 266 132 133 133
7 28 153 66
(iii) If the coin selected is found to be biased, then
(iii) If head appears, then the probability of both P(E6 / E) is equal to
coins transferred from bag A are fair is
2 3 5 3
14 21 25 14 (A) (B) (C) (D)
(A) (B) (C) (D) 19 38 38 19
43 43 43 19
4. Passage: There are n urns numbered from 1 to n. The
2. Passage: In a tennis tournament, there are 12 players Kth urn contains K white balls and (n + 1 - K) black
K
S1, S2, …, S12 and they are divided into 6 pairs at random. balls. Let Ek denote the event of selecting the K
Kth urn
From each pair, the winner will be decided on the basis at random and let W denote the event that the ball
of the game played between the two players of the pair. drawn from the selected urn is white. Let P(A) denote
Assume that all players are of equal strength so that the probability of an event A. Answer the following
the probability of any player beating any other player questions.
is 1/2. Answer the following questions.
(i) If P(EK) is proportional to K for K = 1, 2, 3, …, n,
(i) The probability that S1 and S2 are not playing then lim P(W ) is
against other is n®¥

1 10 1 5 1 2 1 3
(A) (B) (C) (D) (A) (B) (C) (D)
2 11 11 22 3 3 4 4

(ii) The probability that exactly one of S1 and S2 is (ii) If P(EK) = C, a constant for all K = 1, 2, 3, …, n,
among the losers is then P(En /W ) is equal to
1 5 6 5 2 1 n 1
(A) (B) (C) (D) (A) (B) (C) (D)
2 22 11 11 n+1 n+1 n+1 2
(iii) The probability that both S1 and S2 are among (iii) If P(EK ) = 1/ n for all K = 1, 2, 3, …, n and E
the winners is denote the event of choosing an even numbered
1 5 6 5 urn, then P(W / E) is equal to
(A) (B) (C) (D)
4 11 11 12 1 n+4
(A) (B)
3. Passage: A box contains 6 coins out of which at least 2n 2(n + 1)
one is biased. Let EK(1 £ K £ 6) denote the event that n+2 n+1
(C) (D)
exactly K out of 6 coins are biased. Also let P(EK) 2(n + 1) 2n
be directly proportional to K(K + 1). Answer the
following questions.

Assertion–Reasoning Type Questions

In the following set of questions, a Statement I is given 1. A fair coin is tossed 3 times. Let A be the event that
and a corresponding Statement II is given just below it. the first toss gives head; B is the event that the second
Mark the correct answer as: toss gives head and C be the event that there are
(A) Both Statements I and II are true and Statement II exactly two consecutive heads or exactly two consecu-
is a correct explanation for Statement I tive tails.
(B) Both Statements I and II are true but Statement II Statement I: A, B, C are independent events
is not a correct explanation for Statement I
(C) Statement I is true and Statement II is false Statement II: A, B, C are pairwise independent.
(D) Statement I is false and Statement II is true
566 Chapter 7 Probability

2. Suppose two persons A and B have n + 1 and n coins. Statement I: P(Ei / E) > P(Ei )P(E / Ei )
All the coins are fair. They toss their coins.
n
Statement I: The probability that A gets more heads Statement II: å P(E ) = 1
i =1
i
than B is 1/2.
Statement II: The probability that A gets more heads 5. A random number selector can only select one of the
than B is the same as A gets more tails than B. numbers from the set {1, 2, 3, …, 9} and he will make
these selections with equal probabilities.
3. In throwing a pair of fair dice, let A1 be the event that
the first die turns up odd number, A2 be the event that Statement I: After n trials (n > 1), the probability
the second die turns up odd number and A3 be the that the product of these selected numbers is divisible
event that the sum of the faces turn up is odd. by 5 is
n n n
Statement I: The events A1, A2, A3 are independent. æ 8 ö æ 5ö æ 4 ö
1-ç ÷ -ç ÷ + ç ÷
è 9ø è 9ø è 9ø
Statement II: A1, A2, A3 are pairwise independent.
Statement II: For the product to be divisible by 10,
4. Let E1, E2, …, En be mutually exclusive and exhaus- the selections must contain at least one 5 and one
tive events of a random experiment with P(Ei) > 0 for even number.
i = 1, 2, 3, …, n. Let E be any event connected to the
experiment with 0 < P(E) < 1.

Integer Answer Type Questions

The answer to each of the questions in this section is a 3. Let A and B be two sets. A contains 4 elements while
non-negative integer. The appropriate bubbles below B contains 3. The probability of choosing a surjective
the respective question numbers have to be darkened. map from A to B is m/n (m/n is in lowest terms). Then
For example, as shown in the figure, if the correct answer the value of n – m is .
to the question number Y is 246, then the bubbles under (Hint: See Theorem 6.19, Vol. 1.)
Y labeled as 2, 4, 6 are to be darkened.
4. A number from the set {1, 2, 3, …, 15} is selected at
X Y Z W random. The probability that it is a proper divisor of 30
0 0 0 0 is a/b (in lowest terms). Then a + b is equal to .
1 1 1 1
2 2 2
5. Let m/n, in lowest terms, be the probability that a
randomly selected divisor of 1019 is an integer multiple
3 3 3 3
of 1010. Then m + n is .
4 4 4
5 5 5 5 6. A box contains 3 gold coins and 4 silver coins. Coins
6 6 6 are drawn one by one without replacement until all
the gold coins are drawn. If a/b (in lowest terms) is the
7 7 7 7
probability that the number of draws required is more
8 8 8 8 than 4, then b – a value is .
9 9 9 9
7. If the integers m and n are chosen from the set {1, 2,
1. Each of two bags contain both black and white balls. 3, …, 100}, then the probability that a number of the
The total number of balls in both bags is 25. One ball form 7m + 7n is divisible by 5 is 1/K
K where K is equal to
is taken from each bag. The probability of both balls .
are black is 27/50. Then the probability of both balls
are white is p/50 where p is . 8. The probability of a bomb hitting a bridge is 1/3 and
two direct hits are enough to destroy the bridge. The
2. 10 girls and 4 boys are to sit at a round table. If the least number of bombs required so that the prob-
arrangement is random, the probability of no two ability of the bridge getting destroyed is greater than
boys sit next to each other is a!/(b!c !) Then (b + c) - a 0.5 is .
is equal to .
 Answers 567

ANSWERS
Single Correct Choice Type Questions
1. (C) 26. (A)
2. (D) 27. (C)
3. (B) 28. (B)
4. (A) 29. (D)
5. (B) 30. (D)
6. (C) 31. (D)
7. (B) 32. (A)
8. (A) 33. (C)
9. (B) 34. (A)
10. (A) 35. (C)
11. (B) 36. (D)
12. (A) 37. (A)
13. (C) 38. (C)
14. (A) 39. (D)
15. (D) 40. (C)
16. (B) 41. (D)
17. (B) 42. (A)
18. (A) 43. (C)
19. (A) 44. (D)
20. (D) 45. (B)
21. (B) 46. (A)
22. (C) 47. (A)
23. (A) 48. (D)
24. (B) 49. (D)
25. (C) 50. (A)

Multiple Correct Choice Type Questions

1. (A), (B), (C) 6. (A), (B), (C)
2. (A), (B), (C), (D) 7. (A), (D)
3. (A), (B), (C), (D) 8. (A), (B), (C)
4. (A), (C), (D) 9. (B), (C)
5. (A), (B), (C) 10. (A), (B), (C), (D)

Matrix-Match Type Questions

1. (A) ® (r); (B) ® (p); (C) ® (t); (D) ® (q) 4. (A) ® (s); (B) ® (q); (C) ® (p); (D) ® (r)
2. (A) ® (s); (B) ® (p); (C) ® (q); (D) ® (q) 5. (A) ® (p); (B) ® (q); (C) ® (r); (D) ® (s)
3. (A) ® (p), (s); (B) ® (p), (s); (C) ® (q), (s);
(D) ® (q), (s)

Comprehension Type Questions

1. (i) (D); (ii) (C); (iii) (A) 3. (i) (C); (ii) (A); (iii) (B)
2. (i) (B); (ii) (C); (iii) (D) 4. (i) (B); (ii) (A); (iii) (C)

Assertion–Reasoning Type Questions

1. (B) 4. (D)
2. (A) 5. (A)
3. (D)
568 Chapter 7 Probability

Integer Answer Type Questions

1. 2 5. 5
2. 9 6. 4
3. 5 7. 4
4. 3 8. 5